Monthly Archive

Clouds increasing with rain likely (70%) after midday.  A few storms expected late in the afternoon and will continue into the early evening.  Afternoon high around 80.  More rain (40%) and storms in our area Saturday.  Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
649 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2012

SYNOPSIS...
Fairly zonal FLOW aloft continues across much of the country early
this morning, with split JET streams. The northern branch of the
jet stream was much stronger and located up near the Canadian
border. Meanwhile, the subtropical jet extended from the central
highlands of Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico producing 30-50 KNOT
upper level flow along much of the Gulf Coast region. Despite the
lack of major synoptic features to drive the ATMOSPHERE today in
our area, there are several interesting things happening UPSTREAM
of our forecast area right now. There are two MCVs (convectively-
induced PV anomalies) in the western Gulf region very evident in
loops of regional RADAR AS well as IR or WV satellite. The first
is pushing ENE through Louisiana and was spawned by earlier storms
near the Upper Texas coast. The second is moving just offshore of
Brownsville, TX at the moment. Meanwhile, considerable LOW-level
MOISTURE existed over the Gulf of Mexico and areas relatively near
the coastline, with drier AIR in place from central Alabama into
southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Today through Sunday]...
The short term forecast can be generally be described as warm and
UNSETTLED with periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms. With
a lack of strong, synoptic-scale forcing, any storms will probably
have a noticeable DIURNAL trend with peak coverage and intensity
each day in the 17-02z (1pm - 10pm EDT) timeframe. Despite the
unsettled weather pattern, no all-day RAIN event is anticipated,
and storms should be SCATTERED providing some pleasant weather in
between the periods of rain.

THROUGH THIS EVENING: MEAN 0-1km (boundary layer) flow will have
a large southerly component. Therefore, it seems LIKELY that some
of the deeper moisture currently bottled up right along the Gulf
will begin to make its way further inland. There is likely to be a
contrast in low-level moisture across our area, with higher mixing
ratios across the west and lower values east. There is already
evidence of this setting up with MID-60s dewpoints penetrating
about 100 miles inland to the north of Mobile Bay. Thus, daytime
thunderstorms are likely to be concentrated in the western half of
our area. Models have been carrying POPS for several days now for
this afternoon, but we could see an added boost of deeper vertical
motion in advance of the MCV currently over Louisiana. A combo of
extrapolation and model trends places the CENTER of the MESOSCALE
CIRCULATION into SW Alabama late this afternoon. This timeline
would put our western areas in a region of increasing broad ascent
from around 20z into the evening hours. Therefore, PoPs were kept
in the likely RANGE despite some lower values on the 00z guidance
from MET/MAV. We can`t dismiss the possibility of a FEW strong or
severe storms this afternoon and evening. The MCV has already
increased upper-level winds about 5-10 knots above background flow
(per GOES derived winds) so bulk SHEAR is likely to be close to
25-30 knots. Ultimately, UPDRAFT intensity is likely to depend on
how much clearing and heating will coincide with the plume of
increasing low-level moisture.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: There will be increasing westerly component
to the boundary layer flow this weekend. As such, low-level
moisture ADVECTION will be much weaker than today and there may be
deeper mixing and lower afternoon dewpoints in inland areas. This
could act to limit potential INSTABILITY and lead to weaker storms
overall. Saturday showers and storms should be a continuation in
some form of what manages to develop this afternoon and tonight,
with best PoPs shifting southeast with time. Warmest HIGH
temperatures on Saturday were kept NW for this reason. Sunday
looks to be a very warm day with stronger sea-breeze circulation.


.LONG TERM [Sunday NIGHT through next Friday]...
The short wave TROUGH that will be impacting the local weather over
the weekend will be slipping southeast of the area on Sunday night.
That should bring a brief period of drier weather to the region. It
will also get pretty warm with 850-MB TEMPS up around +16C on
Monday. Most inland locations will REACH the upper 80s with a few
spots reaching 90. How things evolve over the Tuesday to Wednesday
night time frame is still up for debate. The models are in fairly
good agreement with their handling of the long wave trough as it
crosses the western part of the country through Sunday night. After
that, we are seeing some big differences in how the energy emerges
out into the plains. At first, we were seeing the operational 00Z
GFS as an outlier as it was much different than its own previous
solutions in slowing the system down and even cutting off a low
across the Southern Plains. The late periods of the NAM and 29/12Z
Euro did not support this; nor did most of the GFS`s own ENSEMBLE
members. However, the new 00Z Euro (yes, we waited for it), has now
trended strongly toward the GFS and is now showing that SAME cut off
low developing over NM and moving east from there. There is also
some support from the UKMET and Canadian. In fact, the new Euro is
now even slower to eject this system eastward from Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. We are not ready to bite off on that
solution just yet.

After all is said and done, the forecast will look a lot like the
operational GFS solution. This means we will see PoPs return to the
forecast Monday night across the western zones and elsewhere on
Tuesday with highest PoPs now on Wednesday. The cold frontal passage
is now PROGGED for Wednesday night. This all about a day slower than
we were advertising last night. There is at least a CHANCE for
severe storms with this system if a sufficiently cold POOL aloft can
accompany the upper system (jury still out) which would steepen mid
level lapse rates. Stay tuned. This forecast will show drier air
moving in behind the FRONT for Thursday and Friday, along with lower
HUMIDITY levels and cooler temps that will actually be fairly close
to seasonal norms during the day.

&&

.AVIATION [through 12Z Saturday]...
IFR conditions have developed at all area TAF sites except VLD which
has MVFR. Conditions will improve to VFR by mid morning. Scattered
to NUMEROUS TSRA will develop across the region and last into
tonight. We have gone ahead and indicated these chances in PROB or
TEMPO groups accordingly.

&&

.MARINE...
No major marine concerns as south to southwest flow will prevail
as low-level ANTICYCLONE remains anchored near the Bahamas and
South Florida. This will keep winds largely under 15 knots with
SEAS fluctuating between 1 and 3 feet. The next notable cold
front will arrive around the middle of next week, which would be
the next time that any sort of headline conditions are possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With increasing moisture moving into the region, red flag
conditions are not expected Today and Saturday. Drier air will
arrive for Sunday and Monday, but RH is currently forecast to stay
above critical levels.

Still unseasonably warm with a high of 84. Clouds will start returning late in the day, with good rain chances for Friday (70%) and Saturday (50%). Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
640 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2012

SYNOPSIS...The long wave pattern across N. America this morning
features a TROUGH over eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S.,
another trough across much of the west and a RIDGE in the CENTER
part of the continent. An MCV, or convectively induced vort center
is noted in the relatively weak FLOW over TX. Surface analysis shows
HIGH PRESSURE centered northeast of the Bahamas ridging
northwestward across FL to the northern Gulf Coast. Areas of dense
FOG have developed across parts of the FL Panhandle. Since most of
the HI-res and statistical guidance agreed that fog would form in
this area, we went ahead and issued a dense fog ADVISORY for much of
the FL Panhandle from Liberty and Franklin Counties west.
Visibilities are also dropping further inland, so we have expanded
the advisory northward to include Southeast AL. Earlier this
morning, that OH too familiar acrid SMOKE smell wafted back over
Tallahassee from a controlled burn over SW Leon County that is
apparently still smoldering. The observer at TLH recent reported a
broken deck at 200 FT and a look out the west and south facing
windows confirmed a shallow smoke layer. Recently, the VISIBILITY
dropped below 3SM at the airport. We will therefore issue a dense
smoke advisory for Leon County and vicinity and include areas of
smoke in the forecast GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
The surface ridge axis will move little today while we see some
minor short wave ridging overhead in response to the TX short wave
moving east to the Lower MS Valley. 850-MB TEMPS will hold at around
12-13C and that spells another warm day for the forecast area. Many
inland areas will REACH the MID 80s, some 8-10 degrees above NORMAL.
The ridges should suppress most PRECIPITATION. We did see some
ISOLATED showers yesterday and a FEW of the hi-res models show this
happening again today. We painted a broad area of silent 10 POP
across the southern and western portions of the forecast area with a
few spots over the eastern FL Big Bend and Southeast AL getting a
slight CHANCE PoP. Any showers that do develop today will dissipate
by SUNSET. We then look to the west AS the weak upper level energy
moves closer. Mid level lapse rates will begin to increase, but
shouldn`t be all that bad with 500-mb temps around -14C. POPS have
come up across the board in the guidance and we see no reason to
quibble. PoPs on Friday afternoon will RANGE from 70 west to 30 from
VLD to CTY. Another weak IMPULSE could cross overhead on Saturday
and it does appear the lapse rates will steepen to 7-7.5 C/km as
500-mb temps drop to -16C. There is not much SHEAR to be had, but we
would not be surprised if a few storms became strong to severe on
Saturday with HAIL and WIND gusts being the main threat. This is not
good news for the Springtime Tallahassee Festival that is planned
for Saturday. Stay tuned.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
The extended period will begin with a split flow pattern across the
CONUS. A fairly strong subtropical JET will extend from the central
highlands of Mexico across the northern Gulf and roughly along 25N
LATITUDE out into the Atlantic. Meanwhile, the northern branch of
the jet stream will be situated mostly up near the Canadian border.
A broad weak trough axis extending down the spine of the Appalachian
Mountains and along the Gulf coast will lose its character as a
SHORTWAVE ridge quickly builds in behind it across the SC US. The
overall impact to our area with the split flow pattern will be a
lack of strong, focused upper level support for vertical motion and
very little change in the AIR mass for at least the first part of
the extended forecast.

20-30 meter HEIGHT rises from Saturday Night into Monday as the
shortwave ridge builds in and 850mb temperatures climb to around
+16C, which signals several warm days Sunday and Monday. MEX
guidance tonight is much warmer than yesterday, and even nudges some
90-91F highs into the Suwannee River Valley by Monday. We stayed
close to the new MEX figures as anything higher at this point would
be into record territory. Still, would not be surprised to see the
first 90 degree high of the YEAR on Monday at TLH.

Until a more substantial cold FRONT passage Tuesday with an ejecting
trough, mid-level lapse rates are projected to stay quite steep by
both the ECMWF and GFS nearly continuously. The steep lapse rates
atop a fairly moist boundary layer should be sufficient to generate
at least moderate levels of potential INSTABILITY Sunday through
Tuesday. GFS has signaled sea-breeze potential on Sunday, so a blend
of MEX and local sea-breeze tool were used for PoPs that afternoon.
Shortwave ridging ahead of approaching trough on Monday should keep
things generally dry, with increasing RAIN chances again on Tuesday.
Degree of CAPE should probably be sufficient to support some
stronger storms Sunday and Tuesday, but shear profiles will be
somewhat weak which would mitigate severe potential. Stay tuned!

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
Winds are much lighter this morning than yesterday at this time. In
fact, buoy 42036 was reporting CALM winds at 06Z. SEAS were running
2-3 feet mainly in a residual SWELL. Winds will remain fairly light
today with the ridge axis over the marine area. However, the
GRADIENT will begin to tighten up on Friday as the high slides south
and a front crosses the MS Valley. We are forecasting 10-15 KT winds
both Friday and Saturday. After briefly VEERING to the west Saturday
night, winds will back to southerly once again for Sunday into
Monday as speeds settle back to 10 kt or less.

&&

.AVIATION (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...
LIFR conditions holding at ECP, TLH, and DHN with a mix of LOW
STRATUS, dense fog, and even some localized smoke from smoldering
fires across SE Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. VFR at the moment
at ABY and VLD even though VLD had previously dipped to MVFR. Pilots
can expect low CIGS and some visibility restrictions over a pretty
wide area through about 14z or so to the SW of a EUF-TVI-40J line.
Eventually the fog and stratus will dissipate by mid-morning. Still
a possibility of some light, isolated showers right along the sea
breeze so a 3-HR VCSH group was inserted at ECP 19-22z. Otherwise
VFR until tonight when some areas of fog may once again occur. By
late in the period (SUNRISE Friday) we could see some SCATTERED
thunderstorms over the Gulf beginning to approach the coast, first
impacting ECP near or just after 12z Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Despite the DISPERSION tool yielding values of right around 75 in
Leon, Jefferson, and Madison Counties in Florida today with forecast
minimum RH 29-34%, we will hold off on a Red Flag WARNING for now.
The scenario is very marginal, and other important weather elements
and fuels will not be close to critical levels. This area will be
monitored later this morning in the event RH looks to FALL a little
lower or Dispersions look to be slightly higher. After this
afternoon, increasing MOISTURE and rain chances should shut down
fire weather concerns until after the next major cold front
(currently timed for late Tuesday).

Lots of sunshine again today. Plus, we’ll be close to the record high of 86, set in Dothan in 1994. Here’s the NWS discussion for the next few days:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
445 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2012

SYNOPSIS...At upper levels this morning, we see a broad RIDGE
across much of the southern U.S. One short wave of note is moving
across Ontario and a long wave TROUGH is approaching the west coast.
At the surface, HIGH PRESSURE is centered off the Carolina coast and
is ridging westward across the Gulf states just north of the coast.
Satellite shows an area of LOW clouds continues to develop over
South Central GA. Areas of FOG are noted across the coastal counties
from Bay to Walton. However, we have been tracking the east coast
sea breeze FRONT AS it progresses westward across the area and this
has been scouring out the fog. Therefore, not ADVISORY is planned.
SMOKE from various fires across the Big Bend of FL has not been as
noticeable this morning. However, visible satellite pictures from
yesterday indicated that plenty of smoke was produced. Some of this
may yet settle to the ground, but the aforementioned boundary has
LIKELY ended any CHANCE for dense smoke and that and that advisory
will be cancelled.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
The upper ridge will gradually flatten over the next couple of days
as the west coast trough moves east across the nation. While the
bulk of the energy in this trough will move east at higher
latitudes, at least some will TRACK across the southwestern states
and REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH the Gulf Coast by Friday. In the MEAN time, the deep layer
ridging will keep things mainly dry. Today will once again see TEMPS
soar a good 10 degrees above NORMAL (MID to upper 80s). We went a
bit above the MOS based on recent biases. Lows tonight will
generally be in the mid 50s inland and around 60 near the coast. By
Thursday, the surface ridge axis will slide a bit further to the
south allowing low level winds to veer to onshore. This should
slowly increase HUMIDITY levels. However, we hold off bringing POPS
into the forecast until early Friday morning. Slight chance PoPs
were introduced over the Panhandle coastal areas before SUNRISE. By
afternoon, we show chance PoPs (30-40) over the western 2/3 of the
forecast area with slight chance (20) to the east. Temps will be a
FEW degrees lower than today, but still several degrees above
normal. At this point, March 2012 looks on track to go into the
books as either the warmest or second warmest on record.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
The global forecast models are painting the SAME general picture
tonight for the extended forecast, but there are a few notable
differences. This seems to be partially related to disagreement on
how to initialize the STORM currently moving onshore on the Pacific
coast of the US. Despite the disagreement, the global models mostly
result in a similar forecast for our local area with perhaps a few
subtle differences. The time line is roughly: (1) increasing RAIN
chances ahead of an approaching cold front and upper level trough
axis from Friday Night into early Sunday, (2) stronger low-level WAA
pattern with warmer weather Monday and Tuesday, AND (3) the approach
of another cold front by later Tuesday and Wednesday that could
bring a slight cool down and some small rain chances. As the Pacific
storm makes it onshore in the next 24 hours, features should become
better sampled by the observation network and there may be more
model CONVERGENCE for the long term forecast tomorrow night.

For rain chances on the early part of the weekend, it looks like
there will be a good chance of measurable precip in most spots.
PWATs rise to 1.5 standard deviations above normal (around 1.50")
with approx. 20m mid-level HEIGHT falls, so the signals appear to be
there for decent coverage of showers and storms. PoPs were capped at
40% for now with highest values on Saturday, but if things looks
similar over the next few model runs those PoPs will probably be on
the rise. We will also have to keep our eyes peeled for some
stronger storms. GFS and ECMWF both place us on the eastern edge of
a plume of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, with CAPE rising to
around 1000-1500 j/kg and 0-6km bulk SHEAR around 30 knots. Main
threat looks to be timed on Saturday afternoon and evening on the
latest model guidance.

As alluded to in the first paragraph of this section, there is
potential for a decent warm-up Monday and Tuesday. 850mb temps on
the global models rise to +16C on the cool end (GFS, GEM) to +18C on
the warm end (ECMWF) by Monday evening. Deep mixing could boost the
highs in such a situation up around 90. For now we went warmer than
guidance but kept things in the mid-upper 80s.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Another easterly SURGE is working its way west across the waters
this morning. Based on the observations at Cedar Key, it appears the
surge will peak around 15 KT and a caution headline will not be
necessary. The surface ridge axis will slide south today to a
position over the waters. This will result in light winds and low
SEAS. The ridge will slip south of the waters Thursday with onshore
winds setting up through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)...
Westward moving boundary has almost propagated westward to DHN and
ECP by 07z. Behind this feature, which may be related to the
Atlantic sea-breeze, winds have picked up to around 3-5 knots out of
the east, which has mitigated a lot of the smoke and fog concerns
from earlier this evening. ECP had briefly fallen to 1/4SM in fog,
but this surging boundary seems likely to clear things out of LIFR
conditions by 08z. Whether or not fog manages to redevelop around
SUNSET remains to be seen, but have maintained at least some light
fog mention at most of the terminals around 11-12z. VFR expected
during the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The Red Flag WARNING that was issued earlier has been maintained.
Most of the inland Florida zones look to hit DISPERSION numbers of
75-85, with higher values around 100 forecast to the west of the
Apalachicola River. Minimum RH looks to be in the 32-35% RANGE in
the same areas, so this is more of a borderline red flag case with
winds also expected to be well below 15 mph. Fuels look to be most
receptive to fire growth in Leon County (ERC of 37 yesterday), as
well as the western parts of the Panhandle (ERC around 32). Another
day with some borderline Dispersion/RH criteria possible on Thursday
in the inland Florida zones. No WATCH will be hoisted for that yet.

Sunny and a bit warmer with a high near the record of 85 from 1991 in Dothan. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2012

…Dense SMOKE ADVISORY in effect for Leon county until 10 AM EDT
this morning…

UPDATE…
Several reports have come in stating that visibilities are near zero
in parts of Leon county due to patchy FOG mixing with smoke from a
controlled burn in the southwest part of the county. Specifically,
reports have come in from the Leon/Thomas county line and near Lake
Jackson. Take caution if driving through areas with reduced
visibilities and use your LOW-beam headlights.

.SYNOPSIS…
Deep layer ridging and dry AIR have combined to provide CLOUD free
and mild conditions area-wide. The SAME controlled burn in southwest
Leon county that allowed patchy areas of smoke to be trapped near
the surface last NIGHT is smoldering once again this morning. The
only difference this morning is that the afternoon seabreeze was
able to push further inland today, helping spread the smoke from the
afternoon burn across a larger area around Leon county. Close to the
fire, visibilities around 3/4 mile are being experienced. Expect
these extremely low visibilities to remain confined to locations in
Leon and northern Wakulla counties. Elsewhere around the region,
patchy smoke exists from several afternoon fires across north
Florida and south Georgia. Visibilities have not been reduced
(at least not significantly) in these areas of smoke.

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday night)…
Expect the smoke from the fire in SW Leon county to linger near the
ground through MID-morning. Thereafter, the smoke should lift and
mix out a bit, however, it will LIKELY remain present all day across
portions of the western Big Bend and eastern panhandle of Florida.
Another dry, but warm afternoon is expected today with highs
reaching the upper 80s across SE Alabama and northern Florida,
reaching the lower to middle 80s elsewhere.

AS HIGH PRESSURE settles in just east of the local area on
Wednesday, FLOW will shift from easterly to southerly allowing for
a slight increase in MOISTURE across the region. This will do little
except allow for slightly more cloud development, with a VERY
ISOLATED CHANCE for a quick sprinkle along the intersection of the
east coast and Gulf coast seabreeze fronts late in the day across
our southeast Big Bend counties.

For Thursday, guidance has come into a bit better agreement with
respect to the weak FRONT approaching the local area from the north.
It appears as though this front will not make it far enough south to
affect our south Georgia and Alabama counties. Thus, expect another
dry afternoon, with only slightly cooler afternoon highs (low to mid
80s) as heights FALL slightly with the passing of a SHORTWAVE TROUGH
to our north.

Each night, expect lows to RANGE from the lower to middle 50s
inland, to near 60 along the coast. No RAIN is expected during the
overnight period throughout the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through next Tuesday)…
The large scale longwave pattern commences fairly deamplified
highlighted in NRN stream by ridging moving across ERN third of
CONUS with recent Ern trough ejected into Atlc. SRN stream
highlighted by weak trough over TX/OK and weak ridging EWD to Ern
seaboard. At surface, low off mid-Atlc coast with backdoor cold
front WSW across CNTRL AL/GA with GFS fastest solution. This front
being pushed SWD by strong great lakes ridging building SSE into TN
Valley. In response, another RIDGE has flattened and settled swd
across Cntrl FL.

During the rest of forecast, at mid/upper levels, Srn trough lingers
across Srn Plains with near zonal flow across Nrn Gulf Fri into SAT.
Assocd shortwave moves slowly ewd from ARKLATEX on Fri to across NRN
Gulf region Sat and Sun before lifting rapidly NEWD. By late
weekend, low deepens over TX. In response, ridging builds NWD from
Gulf of MEX to over SE region into Mon. However, by Tues low/trough
finally moves ewd kicking ridge into WRN Atlc. Models continue to
differ on solution with GFS faster than EURO with passage of upper
trough/ shortwave and subsequent building ridge so overall
confidence days 5-7 not very high.

At surface, a ridge over Nrn Gulf maintains a light onshore flow
THRU the period. On Friday, front stalls just N of area and then
washes out over weekend out as high pressure builds further down
East Coast into FL. Aided by above shortwave moving ENE across
region, all this should provide enough lift for WDLY-SCT CONVECTION
Fri-Sun with best chance on Sat and across mainly N half of CWA
where the frontal remnants would have best chance to interact with
the local seabreeze fronts. Then in response to surface low
developing over TX and then moving NEWD, front retreats NWD. At same
time, models hint at Gulf low moving NEWD and across local area late
Mon into Tues. That low in tandem with digging upper trough will
insure onshore flow and unseasonably warm temperatures.

Will go with wdly sct-sct POPS Fri AFTN-Sun aftn and Mon-Tues with
best chance rain Sat aftn. Otherwise NIL pops. It should be noted
that model differences still exist and if more southern ECMWF
verifies, pops will be noticeably higher on weekend. With CWA in
warm sector, MIN/MAX TEMPS will remain 5 to 10 degrees and 3 to 7
degrees respectively above NORMAL. (AVG inland min/max is 49/76
degrees).

&&

.AVIATION…thru 12z Wed.
Aside from TLH, expect VFR conditions to prevail at all sites thru
the period. A large fire burning 7 miles southwest of the airport
continues to emit large quantities of smoke. With SW flow…smoke
continues to spread out ENE and expect MVFR to IFR vsbys/cigs at TLH
with brief clear skies as the smoke further settles beneath the
INVERSION thru SUNRISE. Should see restrictions end by mid morning
as deeper mixing returns VFR conditions. After 06z, near CALM onshore
flow will generate MVFR and likely IFR vsbys near sunrise except
Panama City due to fog or fog/smoke combo at TLH.

&&

.MARINE…
A weak easterly SURGE in winds and SEAS is expected tonight as winds
continue to veer. Expect marginal cautionary level winds with the
enhancement. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain relatively calm
for the remainder of the week, through the weekend as high pressure
dominates our coastal waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Minimum RH is expected to drop below 35% today across inland
sections. However, winds, dispersions and ERC should remain below
critical levels so no WARNING will be issued. Lowest  humidities on
wednesday afternoon will remain at critical levels. However, unlike
today dispersions will likely exceed 75 across the inland Panhandle.
This would generate red flag conditions, therefore a WATCH was
issued for this area for Wednesday afternoon. The airmass will
slightly moisten on Thursday. Inland minimum humidities in Florida
will hover in the mid 30s for the rest of the work week, thus there
are no red flag concerns.

Sunny and mild with a nice breeze from the NNW. Afternoon high 82. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...updated for aviation section.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
559 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2012
SYNOPSIS...
AS of 3 AM a large upper level LOW was spinning across the
MID-Atlantic coastline, with an amplified pattern UPSTREAM
consisting of a deep layer RIDGE across the central U.S. and a deep
TROUGH covering the western part of the country. Along the backside
of the eastern U.S. upper low, the local area resides in an area of
SUBSIDENCE resulting in clear skies and dry conditions. Temperatures
have fallen into the middle 50s across inland areas with
temperatures along the coast near 60 degrees.

The only concern for the next several hours will be the residual
SMOKE from a burn across western Leon county yesterday. Expect any
remaining smoke to spread southwest through the morning. This may
result in areas of reduced visibilities, especially across southern
Leon, Wakulla, Franklin, and extreme southeastern Liberty counties.
Take caution during your morning commute in these areas. Most of the
smoke should dissipate by mid-morning as the NOCTURNAL INVERSION
trapping the smoke near the surface erodes.


.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday NIGHT)...
Not much to speak of in the short term as a relatively warm and dry
airmass remains locked in place area-wide. Upper level ridging will
build in from the west as the eastern U.S. low departs further east.
This will allow temperatures to become slightly warmer each
afternoon. At the surface, HIGH PRESSURE situated well north of the
local area will slide east through the period allowing winds to veer
from a northerly direction to a more easterly direction by Tuesday
night. This will do little except introduce the possibility of a mix
of low clouds and FOG on Wednesday morning across south-central
Georgia and the eastern Big Bend of Florida. By Wednesday night, the
surface ridge will sink south and allow FLOW to continue to veer to
a more southerly direction, increasing the likelihood of fog and or
low clouds area-wide by Thursday morning.

Afternoon highs will gradually climb into the middle to upper 80s
through the period with overnight lows in the middle to upper 50s.
No RAIN is expected through at least mid-week.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through next Monday)...
The large scale longwave pattern commences fairly deamplified
especially in SRN stream. NRN stream highlighted by ridging over
CENTER half anchored by troughing over WRN and ERN third of CONUS.
Srn stream with ridging center of CONUS with near zonal flow wrn and
ern third. At surface, low off NJ coast with cold FRONT WSW across
TN Valley. Surface ridge has flattened and settled SWD across CNTRL
FL.

During the rest of forecast, progressive pattern. At mid/upper
levels, ERN trough moves across NE states and out into Atlc during
Thurs in response to Cntrl Conus ridge building EWD into MS Valley
then into FL. Upstream weak SHORTWAVE ejects out of SRN Plains into
SE region on SAT followed by stronger former wrn trough. Both the
GFS and ECMWF show Canadian trough phasing with TX trough to develop
a full LATITUDE long wave trough over Ern by early Sun. By late
Sun, trough exits in Atlc and deep layer ridging builds back in
for dry NLY steering flow rest of period.

At surface, guidance suggests that on Thursday, above amplifying
trough should dip far enough SEWD to force above weak backdoor front
to FL/GA border with gradually increasing MOISTURE before stalling
and then washing out as high pressure builds down East Coast into
FL. Aided by shortwave moving ENE across Gulf of MEX, all this may
provide enough lift for CONVECTION Fri-Sun with best CHANCE on
Sat. Then in response to surface low developing over TX and then
moving NEWD, front retreats NWD. That low in tandem with digging
upper trough will insure on shore flow and unseasonably warm
temperatures.

Models continue to show significant differences in how far south
front will go so confidence not exceedingly high. Either way, it
should be close enough for ISOLATED to SCATTERED showers and
thunderstorms across mainly N half of CWA  where the front would
have a chance to interact with the local seabreeze fronts at least
THRU the weekend. With front LIKELY remaining north of CWA for much
of period, all this should favor dry conditions with above average
temperatures.

Will go with WDLY SCT-sct POPS Fri AFTN-Sun aftn with best chance
Sat aftn. With CWA in warm sector, MIN/MAX TEMPS will remain 5 to 10
degrees and 3 to 7 degrees respectively above NORMAL. (AVG inland
min/max is 49/76 degrees).

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 12Z TUES.
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies and light offshore winds
will continue through the forecast period. One possible exception
would be a smoke plume just west of TLH. This was observed earlier
but NNW flow is keeping the smoke away from the terminal so far.
HYSPLIT run shows that plume should move WSW and thin out so only
possible VSBY restriction would be at Panama City terminal but
confidence too low to include in TAFS. Its also possible that patchy
light fog will develop near SUNRISE Tues at all but Panama City.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will allow for light northerly winds and CALM SEAS
today through tonight. The only exception will be a slight
enhancement in the winds near shore associated with the afternoon
seabreeze. By Tuesday winds will shift to the east and result in a
nocturnal easterly SURGE in winds and seas Tuesday night, lasting
through the day on Wednesday. This will likely increase winds and
seas to cautionary levels spreading from east to west Tuesday night
through Wednesday. High pressure will sink further south on
Wednesday night shifting the winds to a more southerly direction and
acting to calm winds and seas once again. As the surface ridge
settles overhead, winds and seas will remain calm with slight
seabreeze enhancements near shore each afternoon for the remainder
of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier AIR has overspread the region. While relative HUMIDITY is
expected to drop to critical levels for up to five hours today
across much of the eastern Florida Panhandle and Big Bend,  winds
will be light, dispersions will be less than 75, and ERC values will
remain below 35. So we will not issue any warnings. Although the
airmass will moisten slightly on Tuesday, several hours of critical
RH is expected. However, winds and dispersions are projected to
assume critical levels so no watches or WARNING will be issued. For
the rest of the work week, lowest inland RH will hover in the mid
30s and no red flag warnings are anticipated at this time.

Thanks to Bonnie Clements-Robison who snapped this while she and Bryce were at the Mexican Restaurant in Slocomb earlier today!

Windy and warm with scattered storms after midday. After going about 2 weeks without any rain, a slow-moving front in Mississippi will ease into our area later today, bringing clouds and isolated storms to a few areas. High will be 82. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
538 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2012


.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled cold FRONT to the west of the area will begin to push through
the area on Friday into Saturday increasing chances of PRECIPITATION.
Conditions improve for the latter half of the weekend AS HIGH
PRESSURE moves in on the heals of the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Today)...

Upper level RIDGE over the Southeast US for the past FEW days
continues to weaken and erode. This is putting our area in a
squeeze play between the slowly approaching cold front to the
west and a moist southeast FLOW from the east. Much of the dry AIR
over the region is now beginning to give way to more moist
conditions as a result. An analysis of CURRENT trends and new model
guidance would suggest that the stalling cold front to the west
will not make it into our western zones in any appreciable way.
Further to the east, today`s setup is similar to yesterday and
expect that we will again see enhanced activity from the Atlantic
sea breeze interaction with the Big Bend sea breeze during the
late afternoon. For locations between the western and eastern
extremes will see much less coverage of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon. Nonetheless we expect coverage to be slightly
higher than yesterday due to the increase in MOISTURE noted above.

Also an issue is the strong southeast FETCH over the coastal
waters. This will serve to produce a rip current threat from
roughly ST George Island westward. Locations west of Panama City
will see high rip current threats due to the increased exposure to
southeast winds. Have decided to issue a Rip Current statement as
a result. This threat is expected to diminish as the winds subside
later this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday)...

The stalled frontal system to the west of the area will start to
eject out of the southeast US toward the northeast beginning
tonight. Much of the forcing is expected to lift north with the
parent LOW. However, the associated cold front now just west of
the area will take on more of a northeast/southwest orientation
and begin to push through the area. This will increase RAIN
chances later Friday into Saturday morning. POPS have been
increased this forecast cycle to account for the greater certainty
association with the frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT through next Thursday)...

The closed upper low will be over the Ohio Valley with the TROUGH
axis cutting through our CWA to begin the period. The low and trough
will move east and off the MID-Atlantic coast Sunday night with deep
layer ridging building in the first part of next week. The upper
ridge flattens by Wednesday night with zonal flow for Thursday.

At the surface, showers and thunderstorms will be ending from west
to east as a cold front pushes through Saturday night. Offshore flow
and a drier airmass filter in behind the front Sunday and Monday. As
high pressure drops south out of east Canada Tuesday to become
centered off the southeast CONUS Wednesday, winds gradually swing
around to the southeast and south. The moist onshore flow continues
through the remainder of the forecast period with low end CHANCE
PoPs on Thursday. MAX temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s
each day. Minimum temperatures will be in the lower to mid 60s
Saturday night and then drop into the lower to mid 50s across most
areas next week. While these temperatures are cooler than what we
have seen lately, they are still above seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
We expect some low clouds to develop in the pre-DAWN hours around or
just after 09Z. Ceilings will primarily be MVFR, although we did
allow for a period of IFR at TLH and VLD. SCATTERED showers and
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and for now went with
Prob30 groups for all sites in the 18z-24z time frame. Winds will be
southeast to south around 10 knots with higher gusts later this
morning and afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong southeast WIND fetch across the waters will keep SEAS
elevated through this morning and into the afternoon. Winds are
then expected to subside during the later afternoon and seas will
follow. A cold front then approaches later Friday into Saturday
switching winds around to the west and bringing in a better chance
of showers and thunderstorms. The front will then push south on
Sunday and conditions will improve for the later half of the
weekend.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High dispersions are forecast again this afternoon but minimum
relative humidities will be above critical levels. There are no fire
weather concerns at least through Saturday.

On the thermometer, the actual high will not be as close to the record as the last few days, but is is still going to be hot for us for this time of year. With a few more clouds around, the high will reach 84, but the most noticeable factor in our weather will be the increase in winds. With gusts up to 25 mph from time-to-time, it is going to be a very warm and windy day, with storms in the forecast for Thursday afternoon, Friday and Saturday. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2012


For today, the FCST still appears on TRACK with the strong blocking
pattern holding off the vigorous Upper Level Low off to the west
over TX and OK. However, this powerful system continues to generate
plenty of CONVECTION over eastern TX, as well as much of LA and AR.
Due to the blocking Upper RIDGE over our region, this band of
convection will only make very modest eastward progress today, and
should remain off to our west. Like Tuesday, however, just enough
Atlantic MOISTURE may entrain far enough to the west to warrant Iso
to SCT AFTN showers and storms over eastern portions of the CWA.
Also, while at this time yesterday, it appeared that the FL
Panhandle beaches may have a high risk of rip currents today, it
looks like this will be pushed back one day to Thursday. However,
there still will be a moderate risk of rip currents at both the
Panhandle and Big Bend beaches today.

For Thursday through Friday very little has changed with the overall
fcst, as the blocking pattern should continue to slowly break down.
This will allow more moisture and greater RAIN chances to enter the
region from the west, but the Upper Level Low should undergo enough
weakening to significantly limit the chances for any strong to
severe storms to generate over our CWA. However, with the increase
in cloud cover and rain chances, High TEMPS will finally be slightly
on the decrease from the unusually warm early March levels we have
experienced this month so far.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday through next Wednesday)...The strong upper
ridge that has been dominate over the eastern third of the CONUS the
past several days will gradually break down Friday through Friday
night. The closed upper low currently near the Texas Panhandle will
initially lift slowly north to northeast into northern Missouri
Friday afternoon. The low will then slide east to southeast over the
weekend as the ridge breaks down. Both the 12z EURO and 00z GFS are
remarkably close in tracking the low through North Carolina on
Sunday. This feature weakens into an open wave shortly after moving
off the eastern seaboard with upper ridging building back in across
the local region in its WAKE.

Surface high PRESSURE will be centered east of the Florida peninsula
to start the period and will retreat eastward allowing a cold FRONT
to advance and push across the CWA Saturday night. SCATTERED showers
and thunderstorms will precede the front. Will have CHANCE/good
chance POPS for the Friday through Saturday night time frame. Deep
layer ridging and a drier airmass will return to the region Monday
through Wednesday. Despite the passage of a cold front, temperatures
will remain above seasonal levels through the period.

&&

.Aviation...Brief periods of MVFR vsbys/cigs due to fog are possible
around SUNRISE. Any fog that develops will dissipate by MID-morning
returning all terminals to VFR conditions with southeast winds
around 10 KTS through the afternoon.

&&

.Marine...Although the pressure GRADIENT will be a bit tighter today
than on Tuesday, it will still be mainly overnight and morning
southeasterly WIND surges that will push the Coastal Waters into
cautionary levels today into Thursday. By Thursday Night and Friday,
these stronger surges should come to an end, as the once powerful
Low pressure system off to our west continues to steadily weaken as
it very slowly approaches the Marine Area.

&&

.Fire Weather...High dispersions are forecast again today and
Thursday but minimum relative humidities are expected to be above
critical levels. There are no fire weather concerns at least into
the first part of the weekend. 

Another day with afternoon highs near the record of 86 (from 1963 in Dothan). Gusty winds will certainly be noticeable. Plus, along the coast, moderate rip currents will be a concern. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
330 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2012

For today and tonight, the Upper Level RIDGE should remain in general
control of the region, and will continue to hold the potent upper
level LOW off to our west. However, there are a FEW small, but
energetic, vort lobes to our NE in the Atlantic Ocean, an there may
be just enough MOISTURE entrainment from the east this afternoon
and evening to account for Slight CHANCE POPS late this afternoon/early
this evening for eastern portions of the CWA. Based of the latest 00
UTC run from our local WRF, will strongly consider 20% PoPs from 18
to 00 UTC and 00 to 06 UTC in this area. Otherwise, it should be
another unseasonably warm and humid day across the region, with
highs at least in the MID 80s away from the coast once again. Will
completely discard the very HIGH "bullseye" Pops from the MET
guidance tonight.

For Wed. through Thu., it appears as though the models are finally
coming into a reasonable sense of agreement in how to handle the
interaction of the potent southern stream SHORTWAVE and the CWA
protecting steep Upper Level Ridge, which will entail a somewhat
faster breakdown of our protecting Ridge, which may allow for higher
PoPs and lower MAX TEMPS on Wed and Thu, but may also allow for a
quicker Cold Frontal passage from what`s left of this Low PRESSURE
system over the weekend. While we will trend higher with the short
term PoPs this package, it still appears unlikely that any of the
strong to severe storms (which have been firing off to our west),
will actually make it into our CWA.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday through next Tuesday)...The 12z EURO and 00z
GFS are now in better agreement especially with respect to the
strength and forecast TRACK of the closed upper low. At the
beginning of the period, the upper low will be over the central
plains and move into the Missouri Valley on Friday as the stubborn
upper ridge over the eastern third of the CONUS continues to break
down. Meanwhile, the surface high will be centered east of the
mid-Atlantic states pumping in plenty of Gulf moisture ahead of the
associated cold FRONT which will still be off to our west. We will
increase PoPs into the chance category on Friday. Over the weekend,
the stacked low pressure system will translate across the Ohio
Valley and move off the mid-Atlantic coast late Sunday with the cold
front pushing through the local area Saturday night or early Sunday.
PoPs will be in the chance category Saturday tapering off to slight
for Sunday. Deep layer ridging builds back into the region early
next week along with the return of a drier airmass. Temperatures
will remain above seasonal levels each day although max and MIN
temps will trend down a few degrees in the WAKE of the cold front
early next week.

&&

.Aviation...Brief periods of MVFR vsbys due to fog are possible just
prior to SUNRISE. Any fog that develops will dissipate by
mid-morning returning all terminals to VFR conditions with winds
around 10 KTS through the afternoon.

&&

.Marine...The Pressure GRADIENT is already tightening over the
northern Gulf of Mexico overnight, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions already developing off to the west of our Coastal Waters.
This tighter gradient (between the Surface Ridge to the northeast
and the approaching TROUGH of low pressure to the west) will shift
eastward today through Thursday, and should allow for periods of
Cautionary (to possibly even Advisory) level conditions over a good
portion of the Marine Area during the next few days. Lighter winds
and lower SEAS appear in store for the Coastal Waters by Friday and
over the upcoming weekend, as a weakening Cold Front passes through
the Marine Area.

&&

.Fire Weather...High dispersions are forecast today and again on
Wednesday but minimum relative humidities are expected to near or
above critical levels both afternoons. There are no fire weather
concerns at least through the remainder of the week.

Today is the first official day of Spring. Here’s why we have different seasons on Earth.

Want to read more? Click here.

Sunny and hot for this time of year. High will be near 88 in the inland areas, record for today in Dothan is 88 from 1955. Not much of a breeze, plus, very dry for the few days. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2012

SYNOPSIS and Short Term...(Rest of tonight through Wednesday)...The
extremely amplified Upper Level Pattern, will continue to become more
dramatic over the next FEW days, AS a strong SHORTWAVE enters the
Pacific SW and re-energizes the Steep TROF already in place. This
newly energized Trof is then PROGGED carve its way gradually eastward
along the U.S. border w/ Mexico during the next few days, but it
still appears as though Strong Upper Level Ridging will continue to
protect our CWA from this trof through at least the short term
period. This should result in more of the SAME type of weather for
our region, which will be a continuation of the very warm early
SPRING weather, with HIGH TEMPS climbing into the MID to upper 80s
away from the coast each day. With the continuation of the
unseasonably warm and humid conditions, late NIGHT/early morning FOG
and LOW clouds will remain a concern, as will ISOLATED afternoon and
evening CONVECTION (especially by Wednesday as the Trof gets a bit
closer from the west, and some Atlantic MOISTURE may get entrained
from the east). Over the coastal waters, outside of the generally light
winds and low SEAS, still monitoring the nearshore Panhandle waters
for the generation of sea fog, which is still in its formative
stages as of midnight EDT. Will also need to monitor the fog
potential across the interior as we get closer to the morning
commute.

&&

.Long Term...(Thursday through next Monday)...The 00z GFS and 12z
EURO show the CUTOFF upper low over or near the Texas Panhandle
Wednesday night. The low is being blocked by a sharp but narrow
upper RIDGE with axis extending from the eastern Gulf through the
Great Lakes region. Both models are in good agreement early on
lifting the low slowly northward into central Kansas by Friday
afternoon. Thereafter the models show the ridge breaking down with
the low migrating across the eastern CONUS. The EURO is more
aggressive in breaking down the ridge and tracks the low east across
Missouri Saturday, southeast into Georgia on Sunday and then off the
South Carolina coast on Monday. The GFS solution tracks the low
further to the north across the Ohio Valley Saturday/Saturday night.
This feature weakens into an open wave as it moves off the
mid-Atlantic coast Monday.

The EURO solution brings increasing RAIN chances over the weekend
with the passage of a cold FRONT late Sunday into early Monday. The
GFS shows surface high PRESSURE remaining in control throughout the
period with a weak cold front stalling or washing out north of our
CWA Monday. For now, will only place a slight POP over our northern
zones on Sunday. Temperatures will remain above seasonal levels each
day although afternoon temps may trend down a few degrees by the end
of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...CIGS and VSBYS are expected to gradually lower to
IRF/LIFR conditions in the pre-DAWN hours at ECP, TLH and VLD with
MVFR conditions at DHN and ABY. VFR conditions return to all sites
shortly after SUNRISE. Winds will be from the east to southeast
around 10 KTS today.

&&

.Marine...With SFC Ridging holding on to our NE and a Trof of Low
Pressure gradually approaching from the West, expect a gradual
tightening of the Sfc Pressure GRADIENT over time across the Coastal
Waters. This may lead to periods of Cautionary or even low end Small
Craft ADVISORY conditions over parts of the Marine Area from Tuesday
into Thursday of this week, with much more uncertain conditions by
the end of the week and beginning of next weekend. Also, the area of
Dense Fog is forming along the Panhandle Coastline this morning, so
will leave the CURRENT Dense Fog Advisory for the Nearshore
Panhandle Waters in effect.

&&

.Fire Weather...DISPERSION indices are forecast to be above 75 over
most of north Florida this afternoon as transport winds increase.
However, minimum afternoon relative humidities are now expected to
be at or just above critical levels over interior portions of the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. We have cancelled the fire weather
WATCH but will monitor relative HUMIDITY values later this morning.
High dispersions are forecast again for Tuesday and Wednesday but
minimum relative humidities are expected to be above critical levels
both afternoons.

We missed tieing the afternoon high record for Dothan by 1 degree Thursday. With so much sunshine expected again today, our afternoon high will be right at 88, which is the record in Dothan for today set in 1967. A few isolated storms are expected again in the afternoon and early evening. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
555 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2012



...Near record warmth to continue...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...Very warm March pattern will
continue through the weekend AS the upper RIDGE dominating the
Gulf Coast region builds north in the New England by Saturday and
Sunday. Temperatures will remain well above NORMAL with highs in
the MID to upper 80s. MOS guidance continues to show a cool BIAS,
with the MAV continuing have the coolest numbers. Will follow
yesterday`s forecast philosophy of going 1 to 2 degrees above the
warmest guidance. This gets TLH to 87 degrees this afternoon,
which would tie the record HIGH for the date. High temperatures
will reach similar levels for Saturday and Sunday. However,
Sunday might be a degree or two cooler, with gridded guidance
dropping 850mb temperatures by a FEW degrees from today.

ISOLATED to SCATTERED thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon as the seabreeze combines with weak upper impulses and
moderate INSTABILITY to generate CONVECTION. High-res guidance
suggests the highest POPS will be across south Georgia Today and
then the I-75 corridor on Saturday, and will lean towards those
tendencies for this forecast package. As with the past several
days, steep lapse rates and dry mid-levels suggest the potential
for marginally severe HAIL with the strongest storms this
afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Sunday NIGHT through next Friday)...At the onset of
the extended forecast there is excellent model agreement on an
amplified synoptic FLOW pattern with a deep western TROUGH and
DOWNSTREAM eastern ridge - with the ridge axis aligned roughly
over our local forecast area. The global models have been fairly
consistent over the past few days worth of runs showing a CUTOFF
LOW developing on Tuesday-Wednesday somewhere near the Southern
Plains or Ozark region. The main question is related to the
timing, and how exactly that will eventually eject to more eastern
longitudes. The 16.00z operational runs of the ECMWF and GFS kick
the upper level low out fast enough to push a low-level cold FRONT
into our area by Thursday or Friday. Meanwhile, the ECMWF ENSEMBLE
and GFS Ensemble both show increasing HEIGHT spreads in that
timeframe with differing solutions amongst the various perturbed
runs. Therefore, there isn`t a lot of confidence in a particular
cold front timing (or if one will even reach our area at all).
Still, with increasing southeast low-level flow in the latter half
of the week and 0-1km mixing ratios forecast to increase from
around 8 g/kg on Tuesday to 12 g/kg by Thursday, it seems like we
may see increasing RAIN chances again regardless. PoPs were
reintroduced starting on Wednesday mainly for scattered showers in
the increasing WAA and MOISTURE ADVECTION regime.

Prior to the arrival of increased low CLOUD cover and moisture,
we should see a continuation of the warm weather from the short
term period (as discussed above). 500mb heights and 1000-500mb
thickness will slowly be falling from Sunday through Tuesday, and
therefore it doesn`t seem LIKELY that high temperatures will be
quite as warm as what we are currently experiencing this week. A
blend of ECMWF and GFS MOS numbers yields 83-85F on Monday and
82-83F on Tuesday. This is similar to the previous forecast and
not much different than the gridded HPC guidance.


&&

.AVIATION (through 12z Saturday)...FOG has struggled to SET in at
most locations other than ECP which is in close proximity to the
Gulf of Mexico. It appears the dense fog this morning is generally
within 10 to 15 miles of the Gulf, with some patchy light fog with
VFR or high-end MVFR visibilities elsewhere. Another round of
DIURNAL scattered storms are in the forecast this afternoon. This
was handled with VCSH and CB cloud group in the time window most
favorable for storms.


&&

.MARINE...High PRESSURE will remain situated over the waters
through the weekend with minimal winds and SEAS. The high will
retreat to the east by Monday into Tuesday of next week, allowing
for a modest increase in the easterly winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Minimum afternoon relative HUMIDITY will be
around 30-35% over much of the area the next several days.
However, other red flag criteria (winds, ERC, DISPERSION) will
remain well away from critical thresholds. Therefore, no fire
weather headlines are expected for the foreseeable future.

Sunny and hot today. With fewer clouds, we could be close to the record high of 88 set in 1989 in Dothan. Plus, we’ll have a chance for some ioslated thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
635 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2012

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...Upper RIDGE will remain in
place over the Gulf of Mexico into the weekend, keeping
temperatures more in line with late SPRING, rather than MID-March.
Following Wednesday`s record-tying HIGH of 87, expect another very
warm day today with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. MOS
guidance has been a bit on the cool side with this pattern, so
have gone well above the MAV and a degree or two above the MET for
today. While the CURRENT forecast high for TLH is 88, reaching the
record of 90 is not out of the question.

AS with the past two days, the warm SFC TEMPS coupled with cool
mid-levels (-15C at 500mb) will lead to steep LOW- to mid-level
lapse rates and CAPE in the 1500-2000j/kg RANGE. Very weak
SHORTWAVE energy moving across the TOP of the ridge this afternoon
should be just enough to trigger ISOLATED to SCATTERED
thunderstorms. Sufficient dry AIR is also present in the mid-
levels to support a FEW strong storms with marginally severe HAIL
being the primary risk.

Friday and Saturday are expected to be near repeats of today with
the upper ridge remaining relatively unchanged and weak impulses
generating isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to remain well above
NORMAL into the weekend.

.LONG TERM (Saturday NIGHT through next Thursday)...Not a whole
lot has changed on the forecast reasoning for the long term period
from this time last night. Global models still favor a highly
amplified FLOW pattern across the CONUS from the weekend into
early next week. This will feature a deep TROUGH across the
western US, with a ridge axis prominently stretched from the
eastern Gulf of Mexico into Ontario and Hudson Bay. The 15.00z
runs of the ECMWF and GFS maintain excellent agreement on the
synoptic pattern with less than 30 meters of 500mb HEIGHT
variation between the two model solutions. This continues to lend
high confidence to the extended forecast, at least with respect to
temperatures and approximate position of surface PRESSURE
features.

It looks like our stretch of very warm weather will REACH a peak
sometime this weekend. 500mb heights rise from about 5800m Friday
evening to 5840m Sunday afternoon before leveling off and slowly
decreasing into the next work week. Similarly, over the SAME time
frame, the 1000-500mb thicknesses rise about 50m before falling
back on Monday-Tuesday. As such, mid-80s highs were included for
Sunday with things falling back more into the low-80s to around 80
degrees on Monday and Tuesday. As we saw yesterday (3/14) the
models have had a cool BIAS of about 2-3 degrees in the current
pattern. Given there is expected to be little/slow change over
much of the forecast period, we can probably expect a similar bias
to extend into the long term period. For this reason, forecast
highs are generally a degree or two higher than guidance through
Tuesday.

Slight CHANCE POPS were maintained on Sunday afternoon as more
isolated, diurnally-driven showers and storms will be possible.
Models are reluctant to show a SURGE of drier air on Monday and
Tuesday as was depicted last night, and therefore it`s possible
there could be some isolated showers continuing beyond Sunday.
Given uncertainty, we went with silent 10% PoPs for now. Beyond
that, the ECMWF and GFS show the deep western trough evolving to a
large CUTOFF low over the Ozarks & Mid South. This would bring
more formidable RAIN chances into our area later in the week.


&&

.AVIATION (through 12z Friday)...Satellite and observations at this
hour confirm that the more WIDESPREAD and dense FOG is just to the
west of our area in much of Alabama. Most of the terminals have been
fluctuating from predominately VFR/MVFR conditions briefly down to
LIFR in some of the patchy fog. With no mid level clouds over the
area, this patchy fog should burn off quickly after SUNRISE (13z).
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are still expected this
afternoon. Indications are that some of the stronger ones could
produce some gusty winds. However, the PROBABILITY of any one strong
STORM impacting a terminal is low.


&&

.MARINE...High pressure will remain parked along the northern Gulf
coast into early next week keeping winds and SEAS rather CALM. No
headlines are expected through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Despite RH falling to around or just below 35% in
north Florida (and most of our zones) today and tomorrow, the
other red flag criteria will not come close to being met. No
headlines are expected over the next week as RH generally remains
above critical levels and we have periodic isolated-scattered rain
chances.

A little warmer today with just enough sunshine to push afternoon highs into the low 80s. Plus, we’ll still have a few isolated showers popping up from time-to-time. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
645 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2012

**Updated most recently for 12z Aviation Discussion.**

.NEAR TERM (Early this morning)...Surface OBS and satellite
imagery indicate an area of dense FOG over portions of the
Florida Panhandle this morning. Fog appears to be WIDESPREAD
enough from Panama City westward to warrant a Dense Fog ADVISORY
through MID-morning. 11-3.9 MICRON imagery supports pushing the
advisory into southeast Alabama AS well.

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...Relatively zonal FLOW across
the CONUS this morning will gradually become more amplified over
the next several days as a deep TROUGH develops along the U.S.
west coast and a strong RIDGE builds over the eastern third of the
country. The ridge is initially forecast to build just west of the
forecast area this afternoon, which will allow some weak SHORTWAVE
energy to drop into south Georgia and north Florida this
afternoon. With warm surface temperatures (lower to mid 80s) and
relatively cool mid-levels (-15C at 500mb), there will be enough
INSTABILITY once again this afternoon for ISOLATED thunderstorms,
especially along the I-75 corridor. A bit of small HAIL cannot be
ruled out with the strongest storms. Coverage will be limited, so
have kept POPS in the isolated category.

The upper ridge will be situated directly over the region by
Thursday which should prohibit any afternoon CONVECTION from
developing. Expect temperatures to REACH the mid 80s at inland
locations for Thursday afternoon.

Isolated PoPs will return for Friday as the ridge axis pulls
slightly back to the west. However, still not anticipated
substantial coverage.

.LONG TERM (Friday NIGHT through next Wednesday)...There is very
good agreement among global models on the synoptic flow pattern
over the CONUS during the long term period. Over the upcoming
weekend, the 14.00z runs of the ECMWF and GFS show less than 30
meter HEIGHT differences at 500mb over most of the country, which
is remarkable agreement in the T+96hr forecast time frame.
Therefore, confidence is higher than NORMAL in the forecast
through the early to middle part of next week.

As a powerful JET streak develops eastward from east Asia to near
the North American Pacific coast over the next FEW days, a deep
and HIGH-AMPLITUDE trough will develop over the western CONUS by
the weekend. At the SAME time, there is expected to be DOWNSTREAM
development of a high-amplitude ridge with the ridge axis
extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to Hudson Bay in eastern
Canada. This will keep a LOW-level ANTICYCLONE locked in place
near the Mid Atlantic US coast with generally QUIET and warm
weather across our forecast area. 500mb heights are expected to be
1.5-3.0 standard deviations above normal over much of eastern
North America with 850mb temperatures around 1 std. dev. above
normal in our area. This amounts to a synoptically evident pattern
favoring widespread warmth and above normal temperatures over the
eastern half of the country (including our area). ECMWF, GEM and
GFS all show 850mb temperatures around +12C from the weekend into
early next week which is similar to what was observed on the 00z
TAE SOUNDING today (highs today were around 82-83F at most inland
locations). Therefore, it seems LIKELY that highs will continue to
be in the low-to-mid 80s through at least Tuesday with no major
pattern change on the HORIZON. As statistical guidance (like the
MEX) tends to be weighted to CLIMATOLOGY at longer time scales, we
will maintain the warmer TEMPERATURE forecast with high confidence
in improving on MOS highs.

As far as PoPs go, some `slight CHANCE` (15-20%) PoPs were
inserted over the weekend. PWATs stay high around 1.2-1.3 inches,
or around 175% of normal values, in that time frame and the GFS
has consistently shown diurnally-driven QPF that peaks in the
afternoon hours. Even with weak flow and no synoptic-scale forcing
aloft, we should be nearing our afternoon convective temperature
on the weekend, so isolated showers and storms seem appropriate.
Drier AIR filters in by Monday, so the forecast from Monday-
Wednesday was kept dry for now.

&&

.AVIATION (through 12z Thursday)...Fog has settled in across western
parts of the area with ECP and DHN both dipping down to 1/4SM with
fog being reported. The other terminals have had to contend with a
slightly drier air mass and some mid level clouds that have limited
fog development thus far. It still seems possible that TLH and VLD
may briefly dip down to 2-3SM VISIBILITY right around SUNRISE, but
otherwise most of the lower flight categories will stay further
west. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are still expected. These
should be isolated, and therefore this was handled with VCSH or
prevailing SHRA in the various TAFs, with a few CB groups as well to
try to convey some general timing.


&&

.MARINE...Subtropical ridge axis will remain in place along the
northern Gulf coast through the end of the week. This will keep
relatively light easterly flow in place over the coastal waters
through the forecast period. No headline conditions are
anticipated at this time.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Minimum RH is generally expected to remain at or
just above 35% through the weekend, so no fire weather headlines
are anticipated in the near future. Some isolated-SCATTERED
showers and storms will be possible through the weekend, but
nothing that would affect fuel MOISTURE over a widespread area.
Fog will be a possibility each night with low INVERSION levels, so
lingering SMOKE from any burns would locally reduce visibility.

Clouds breaking a little by mid-morning and a wee bit warmer today. A stray shower is possible, but will be the exception to the rule. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
530 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2012

.AVIATION...
MID-HIGH level clouds from a dissipated MCS to the west have moved
in this early morning and prevented LOW VIS and cigs across most of
our area this morning. We now expect to see prevailing VFR
conditions with southeast to south winds less than 10 KT today,
except for an afternoon sea breeze around 10 kt (gusts near 20 kt)
at KECP. SHRA/TSRA are forecast to be too ISOLATED to mention in
this forecast package.
____________________________________________________________________

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

.SYNOPSIS...
During the overnight hours, a weak ENE moving SHORTWAVE continued to
weaken AS it punched into the local amplified upper RIDGE. Still it
allowed for some SHOWER activity although most remained just north
of our GA counties.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
The large scale longwave pattern remains fairly amplified in the NRN
stream but relatively deamplified in the SRN stream. This is
highlighted in Nrn stream by TROUGH over extreme ERN Pacific,
ridging over WRN states, shortwave trough/low over upper Great
Lakes, quasi-zonal FLOW and WLY steering flow over local region, and
a full LATITUDE ridge over Ern seaboard with axis down extreme Wrn
Atlc. Position of ridge has allowed enough of a weakness to SET up
over NE Gulf region to allow a FEW impulses to ride EWD each
day.

During the next 24-48 HRS, the Great Lakes low will remain partially
absorbed in the Nrn stream flow as it slowly moves east to Ontario
and Lake Superior early this morning then ESE to Wrn New England by
12z Wed. However, a second shortwave from energy left behind
will gradually drop SE through the forecast area later today
slightly suppressing ridge, especially ern portions, providing
another opportunity for a CHANCE of showers and ISOLD tstms. By
Wednesday, lifting low will allow Gulf deep layer ridging to build
NWD with NWLY steering flow, rising heights, warming TEMPS, clearing
skies and suppressed PRECIPITATION over local region rest of
period.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
During the next 24-48hrs, surface low assocd with above great lakes
low will move from Ontario to Que and partially fill into a trough.
Closer to home, high PRESSURE well of the Carolina Coast with
ridging SWWD to FL coast. Over last 24 hrs, high has shifted ewd and
ridge has weakened resulting in a weakening of local gradients.
High is expected to drift SWD today with local winds further VEERING
and becoming even lighter. This translates to continued warm and
humid conditions and a weak late AFTN seabreeze which may kick off a
few showers. By Wed as high shifts further NEWD, low level flow
shifts to dry NELY. By Thurs, building upper ridge nwd will help
allow surface counterpart to strengthen WSW suppressing any RAIN to
near the coast.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Rain chances will become increasingly scare THRU the period.
The best chances for rain will remain across our Alabama and Georgia
the next two aftns and near the coast on Thurs aftn. With NWLY
steering flow aloft Wed and especially Thurs, ALTHO large scale
forcing is weak, some SHEAR aided by ample DIURNAL heating could
generate an isold strong to possibly severe PULSE STORM in aftn/EVE.
As ridging builds in, highs will increase to the mid 80s by
Thursday. Light SE low level flow and rising DEW points yield
increasing chance of late NIGHT and early morning FOG at least
tonight.

TODAY...GFS and especially NAM continue to be way too wet. WRF also
continues putting too much emphasis on seabreeze generated precip.
Local CAM is driest and worked well last two days and will lean
towards this solution. With shortwave expected to brush mainly nrn
tier GA zones as ridge to be weakest NE portions of CWA, and with
light SLY flow, 0-30% S-N POP GRADIENT looks like a good bet. With
TAE GFS soundings this aftn showing 1.3 PWAT, -3/7 LI and about 1400
J/KG CAPE some tstms LIKELY and with passing shortwave cant discount
a strong storm mainly GA counties. Expect highs from upper 70s SE
AL/GA to around 80 elsewhere.

TONIGHT...20-0% N-SE pop gradient with rain ending with loss of sun.
Lows from mid 50s inland to around 60 at coast. With moist low
levels, areas of fog, possibly dense, to develop late.

WEDNESDAY...As ridge builds a little bit EWD, only 20% mainly
afternoon showers with highs mid 70s coast to low to mid 80s inland.
NIL POPS at night with lows mid 50s inland to around 60 coast. Fog
likely to develop again some locales.

THURSDAY...10-20% N-S pop gradient. Highs mid 70s coast to mid 80s
inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday) The global model show perhaps one more
weak short wave trespassing through the 500 MB ridge over the
Southeast U.S. Friday and/or Saturday, which could allow for enough
increase in deep layer MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, and lift for a slight
PoP. After this, a major amplification of the 500 mb HEIGHT field is
forecast to commence, with a large AMPLITUDE ridge building over the
eastern CONUS into the next work week. This sort of large scale
pattern typically means warm temperatures for our area, limited
somewhat by afternoon sea breezes coming off the still rather chilly
shelf waters of the Gulf of Mexico. If this were SUMMER, this sea
breeze would serve as a trigger for afternoon storms; but this time
of YEAR the THETA-E values in the mid to lower TROPOSPHERE are still
a bit too low to support deep moist CONVECTION, so our PoP will be
10 percent or less. As for temperatures, highs will be in the lower
to mid 80s (away from the cooler beaches), or about 10 degrees above
CLIMATOLOGY. The airmass will be dry enough (and the nights still
long enough) for lows to REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH the 50s.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will settle into place over our coastal waters
resulting in winds and SEAS remaining below headline criteria
through the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The relative HUMIDITY will likely remain too high for red flag
conditions this week.

Cloudy and breezy with some scattered showers and a high of 78.  A few storms expected this afternoon and early evening.

Here’s the NWS Discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
645 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2012

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR cigs are expected this morning and into this
afternoon, with the best CHANCE of persistent MVFR cigs being at KECP where cigs were already ongoing. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA are
expected in southeast AL, but we`ve left it out of the KDHN TAF for
now. Winds of 5 to 10 KT will veer from east early to southeast.
There is conflicting guidance AS to whether or not there will be
lower cigs and VISIBILITY late tonight, so we will address these
issues on the 18 UTC TAF package.

.SYNOPSIS...
AT UPPER LEVELS...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by troughiness
across extreme ERN PAC/PAC NW, negatively tilted TROUGH with closed
LOW over IA, and an amplified RIDGE over Ern states.

During today, base of trough lifts NEWD with low weakening as it
lifts to Lake Superior by sundown. This will serve to shunt ern
ridge offshore yielding rather fast low AMPLITUDE FLOW across most
of CONUS, but slightly weaker SWLY flow across local region. This in
turn allows minor impulses to ride EWD and across NE Gulf region
providing minor lift for some precip today, mainly NW portions. On
Tuesday, trough/low into Que with local flow shifting to weak
ridging then by Tues NIGHT into Wed, upper ridge in Gulf of MEX
begins building N and E thus deep layer ridging reestablishes
control across the local area. This keeps unseasonably warm and
MUGGY conditions across CWFA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
Analysis shows main features are a SW-NE cold FRONT across WRN Great
Lakes and MS Valley, and an area of HIGH PRESSURE off the Carolina
Coast with ridging WSW into NRN Gulf region. Locally, this was
creating moderate east to southeast flow.

During today, as above upper systems lift NEWD, front will shift ENE
towards MI and serve as focus for today`s severe WX before
dissipating on Tues. Closer to home, high shunted further into Atlc
with axis and subsequent GRADIENT weakening over CWFA. This will
provide generally light SELY then E flow over local region THRU Wed.
With onshore flow and higher DEW points, patchy FOG becomes more
LIKELY each late night and early morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY).
TODAY...Latest GFS and especially NAM coming in wet, while local
confidence tool largely 30-0 N-S split and local CONVECTION allowing
model (CAM) based on HI RES guidance even drier, largely ISOLD POPS
which makes forecast a little tricky. Believe that the combination
of modest afternoon heating and lingering MOISTURE could lead to a a
low chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly closest to
above upper support. Several CAM models show strong to possibly
isold severe PULSE storms just to our NW and bears watching. As far
as POPs, will compromise with 40-0% NW-SE gradient during the
afternoon time frame. Highs 75 TO 80.

TONIGHT...30-0% NE-SW evening POP gradient. Lows MID 50s north to 60
coast. With gradient weakening from NW-SE increasing chances for
fog, especially FL Panhandle.

TUESDAY...With ridge beginning to build in, expect a FEW more breaks
in the CLOUD cover than today, so temperatures will be a little
warmer. NIL pops. Highs mid 70s coast to around 80 north. Lows mid
50s inland to 60 coast. Fog a good bet to develop late.

WEDNESDAY...Ridge builds further NWD with rising heights and TEMPS
rise a few degrees. Weak seabreeze will cool off coast. Highs from
low 70s coast to low 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday) The latest global model runs are in
good agreement in forecasting a significant pattern change later
this week. The progressive, split flow pattern we`ve experienced
over the past several weeks (featuring shorter amplitude & wave
LENGTH, fast-moving systems) will give way to a high amplitude,
rather stagnant pattern. By this weekend, the 500 MB HEIGHT field
will have a large amplitude ridge over the eastern CONUS and a deep
trough over the west. While it`s possible that a few weak upper
level short waves could temporarily erode the southeast U.S. ridge
Thursday and Friday (giving us a slight chance of RAIN), this
possibility becomes less likely next weekend as the ridge grows ever
stronger. Without seeing any obvious synoptic systems affecting our
region, we will keep the PoP to a minimum through the period. Of
course deep layer ridging usually means warm temperatures, and we
expect them to be well above CLIMATOLOGY, with highs in the lower to
mid 80s (as opposed to average values in the mid 70s). Lows will be
in the 50s. The main limitation to how warm it gets will be the
winds coming off the cooler shelf waters of the Gulf of Mexico
during the afternoons, where water temperatures will be in the mid
60s. Thus highs at the beaches will remain in the lower 70s. The
weather for this upcoming week feel more like April, and will be
nearly ideal for SPRING BREAKERS.

&&

.MARINE...  Predawn buoys shown exercise caution level winds and
SEAS and should remain at cautionary levels well offshore into mid
morning. The ridge will slowly weaken and move further eastward into
the Atlantic later today resulting in gradually diminishing winds.
This downward trend will continue into the middle part of the week
as the marine area remains on the western edge of the high pressure
ridge.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The relative HUMIDITY will likely remain too high for red flag
conditions this week.