You are currently browsing the monthly archive for March 2012.
Clouds increasing with rain likely (70%) after midday. A few storms expected late in the afternoon and will continue into the early evening. Afternoon high around 80. More rain (40%) and storms in our area Saturday. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 649 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2012 SYNOPSIS... Fairly zonal FLOW aloft continues across much of the country early this morning, with split JET streams. The northern branch of the jet stream was much stronger and located up near the Canadian border. Meanwhile, the subtropical jet extended from the central highlands of Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico producing 30-50 KNOT upper level flow along much of the Gulf Coast region. Despite the lack of major synoptic features to drive the ATMOSPHERE today in our area, there are several interesting things happening UPSTREAM of our forecast area right now. There are two MCVs (convectively- induced PV anomalies) in the western Gulf region very evident in loops of regional RADAR AS well as IR or WV satellite. The first is pushing ENE through Louisiana and was spawned by earlier storms near the Upper Texas coast. The second is moving just offshore of Brownsville, TX at the moment. Meanwhile, considerable LOW-level MOISTURE existed over the Gulf of Mexico and areas relatively near the coastline, with drier AIR in place from central Alabama into southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Big Bend. && .SHORT TERM [Today through Sunday]... The short term forecast can be generally be described as warm and UNSETTLED with periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms. With a lack of strong, synoptic-scale forcing, any storms will probably have a noticeable DIURNAL trend with peak coverage and intensity each day in the 17-02z (1pm - 10pm EDT) timeframe. Despite the unsettled weather pattern, no all-day RAIN event is anticipated, and storms should be SCATTERED providing some pleasant weather in between the periods of rain. THROUGH THIS EVENING: MEAN 0-1km (boundary layer) flow will have a large southerly component. Therefore, it seems LIKELY that some of the deeper moisture currently bottled up right along the Gulf will begin to make its way further inland. There is likely to be a contrast in low-level moisture across our area, with higher mixing ratios across the west and lower values east. There is already evidence of this setting up with MID-60s dewpoints penetrating about 100 miles inland to the north of Mobile Bay. Thus, daytime thunderstorms are likely to be concentrated in the western half of our area. Models have been carrying POPS for several days now for this afternoon, but we could see an added boost of deeper vertical motion in advance of the MCV currently over Louisiana. A combo of extrapolation and model trends places the CENTER of the MESOSCALE CIRCULATION into SW Alabama late this afternoon. This timeline would put our western areas in a region of increasing broad ascent from around 20z into the evening hours. Therefore, PoPs were kept in the likely RANGE despite some lower values on the 00z guidance from MET/MAV. We can`t dismiss the possibility of a FEW strong or severe storms this afternoon and evening. The MCV has already increased upper-level winds about 5-10 knots above background flow (per GOES derived winds) so bulk SHEAR is likely to be close to 25-30 knots. Ultimately, UPDRAFT intensity is likely to depend on how much clearing and heating will coincide with the plume of increasing low-level moisture. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: There will be increasing westerly component to the boundary layer flow this weekend. As such, low-level moisture ADVECTION will be much weaker than today and there may be deeper mixing and lower afternoon dewpoints in inland areas. This could act to limit potential INSTABILITY and lead to weaker storms overall. Saturday showers and storms should be a continuation in some form of what manages to develop this afternoon and tonight, with best PoPs shifting southeast with time. Warmest HIGH temperatures on Saturday were kept NW for this reason. Sunday looks to be a very warm day with stronger sea-breeze circulation. .LONG TERM [Sunday NIGHT through next Friday]... The short wave TROUGH that will be impacting the local weather over the weekend will be slipping southeast of the area on Sunday night. That should bring a brief period of drier weather to the region. It will also get pretty warm with 850-MB TEMPS up around +16C on Monday. Most inland locations will REACH the upper 80s with a few spots reaching 90. How things evolve over the Tuesday to Wednesday night time frame is still up for debate. The models are in fairly good agreement with their handling of the long wave trough as it crosses the western part of the country through Sunday night. After that, we are seeing some big differences in how the energy emerges out into the plains. At first, we were seeing the operational 00Z GFS as an outlier as it was much different than its own previous solutions in slowing the system down and even cutting off a low across the Southern Plains. The late periods of the NAM and 29/12Z Euro did not support this; nor did most of the GFS`s own ENSEMBLE members. However, the new 00Z Euro (yes, we waited for it), has now trended strongly toward the GFS and is now showing that SAME cut off low developing over NM and moving east from there. There is also some support from the UKMET and Canadian. In fact, the new Euro is now even slower to eject this system eastward from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. We are not ready to bite off on that solution just yet. After all is said and done, the forecast will look a lot like the operational GFS solution. This means we will see PoPs return to the forecast Monday night across the western zones and elsewhere on Tuesday with highest PoPs now on Wednesday. The cold frontal passage is now PROGGED for Wednesday night. This all about a day slower than we were advertising last night. There is at least a CHANCE for severe storms with this system if a sufficiently cold POOL aloft can accompany the upper system (jury still out) which would steepen mid level lapse rates. Stay tuned. This forecast will show drier air moving in behind the FRONT for Thursday and Friday, along with lower HUMIDITY levels and cooler temps that will actually be fairly close to seasonal norms during the day. && .AVIATION [through 12Z Saturday]... IFR conditions have developed at all area TAF sites except VLD which has MVFR. Conditions will improve to VFR by mid morning. Scattered to NUMEROUS TSRA will develop across the region and last into tonight. We have gone ahead and indicated these chances in PROB or TEMPO groups accordingly. && .MARINE... No major marine concerns as south to southwest flow will prevail as low-level ANTICYCLONE remains anchored near the Bahamas and South Florida. This will keep winds largely under 15 knots with SEAS fluctuating between 1 and 3 feet. The next notable cold front will arrive around the middle of next week, which would be the next time that any sort of headline conditions are possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... With increasing moisture moving into the region, red flag conditions are not expected Today and Saturday. Drier air will arrive for Sunday and Monday, but RH is currently forecast to stay above critical levels.
WWUS72 KTAE 300741
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
341 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012
COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES- WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN- LIBERTY-SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON…SLOCOMB…MALVERN… TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…COWARTS…WEBB…
COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS…HUDSON…BONIFAY… CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE… MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…
WEWAHITCHKA…SWEETWATER…FREEPORT…SANTA ROSA BEACH…
PANAMA CITY…PARKER…PORT SAINT JOE…APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE 341 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012 /241 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012/
Dense Fog Advisory in Effect Until 9 AM EDT /8 AM Cdt/ This
the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a dense fog advisory, which is in effect until 9 AM EDT /8 AM cdt/ this morning.
* visibility, around one quarter mile in some locations.
* impacts, hazardous driving conditions for motorists with
reduced visibility, especially on bridges or in sheltered rural locations.
a dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to less than one quarter mile. if driving, slow down, use your low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Still unseasonably warm with a high of 84. Clouds will start returning late in the day, with good rain chances for Friday (70%) and Saturday (50%). Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 640 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2012 SYNOPSIS...The long wave pattern across N. America this morning features a TROUGH over eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S., another trough across much of the west and a RIDGE in the CENTER part of the continent. An MCV, or convectively induced vort center is noted in the relatively weak FLOW over TX. Surface analysis shows HIGH PRESSURE centered northeast of the Bahamas ridging northwestward across FL to the northern Gulf Coast. Areas of dense FOG have developed across parts of the FL Panhandle. Since most of the HI-res and statistical guidance agreed that fog would form in this area, we went ahead and issued a dense fog ADVISORY for much of the FL Panhandle from Liberty and Franklin Counties west. Visibilities are also dropping further inland, so we have expanded the advisory northward to include Southeast AL. Earlier this morning, that OH too familiar acrid SMOKE smell wafted back over Tallahassee from a controlled burn over SW Leon County that is apparently still smoldering. The observer at TLH recent reported a broken deck at 200 FT and a look out the west and south facing windows confirmed a shallow smoke layer. Recently, the VISIBILITY dropped below 3SM at the airport. We will therefore issue a dense smoke advisory for Leon County and vicinity and include areas of smoke in the forecast GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... The surface ridge axis will move little today while we see some minor short wave ridging overhead in response to the TX short wave moving east to the Lower MS Valley. 850-MB TEMPS will hold at around 12-13C and that spells another warm day for the forecast area. Many inland areas will REACH the MID 80s, some 8-10 degrees above NORMAL. The ridges should suppress most PRECIPITATION. We did see some ISOLATED showers yesterday and a FEW of the hi-res models show this happening again today. We painted a broad area of silent 10 POP across the southern and western portions of the forecast area with a few spots over the eastern FL Big Bend and Southeast AL getting a slight CHANCE PoP. Any showers that do develop today will dissipate by SUNSET. We then look to the west AS the weak upper level energy moves closer. Mid level lapse rates will begin to increase, but shouldn`t be all that bad with 500-mb temps around -14C. POPS have come up across the board in the guidance and we see no reason to quibble. PoPs on Friday afternoon will RANGE from 70 west to 30 from VLD to CTY. Another weak IMPULSE could cross overhead on Saturday and it does appear the lapse rates will steepen to 7-7.5 C/km as 500-mb temps drop to -16C. There is not much SHEAR to be had, but we would not be surprised if a few storms became strong to severe on Saturday with HAIL and WIND gusts being the main threat. This is not good news for the Springtime Tallahassee Festival that is planned for Saturday. Stay tuned. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)... The extended period will begin with a split flow pattern across the CONUS. A fairly strong subtropical JET will extend from the central highlands of Mexico across the northern Gulf and roughly along 25N LATITUDE out into the Atlantic. Meanwhile, the northern branch of the jet stream will be situated mostly up near the Canadian border. A broad weak trough axis extending down the spine of the Appalachian Mountains and along the Gulf coast will lose its character as a SHORTWAVE ridge quickly builds in behind it across the SC US. The overall impact to our area with the split flow pattern will be a lack of strong, focused upper level support for vertical motion and very little change in the AIR mass for at least the first part of the extended forecast. 20-30 meter HEIGHT rises from Saturday Night into Monday as the shortwave ridge builds in and 850mb temperatures climb to around +16C, which signals several warm days Sunday and Monday. MEX guidance tonight is much warmer than yesterday, and even nudges some 90-91F highs into the Suwannee River Valley by Monday. We stayed close to the new MEX figures as anything higher at this point would be into record territory. Still, would not be surprised to see the first 90 degree high of the YEAR on Monday at TLH. Until a more substantial cold FRONT passage Tuesday with an ejecting trough, mid-level lapse rates are projected to stay quite steep by both the ECMWF and GFS nearly continuously. The steep lapse rates atop a fairly moist boundary layer should be sufficient to generate at least moderate levels of potential INSTABILITY Sunday through Tuesday. GFS has signaled sea-breeze potential on Sunday, so a blend of MEX and local sea-breeze tool were used for PoPs that afternoon. Shortwave ridging ahead of approaching trough on Monday should keep things generally dry, with increasing RAIN chances again on Tuesday. Degree of CAPE should probably be sufficient to support some stronger storms Sunday and Tuesday, but shear profiles will be somewhat weak which would mitigate severe potential. Stay tuned! && .MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... Winds are much lighter this morning than yesterday at this time. In fact, buoy 42036 was reporting CALM winds at 06Z. SEAS were running 2-3 feet mainly in a residual SWELL. Winds will remain fairly light today with the ridge axis over the marine area. However, the GRADIENT will begin to tighten up on Friday as the high slides south and a front crosses the MS Valley. We are forecasting 10-15 KT winds both Friday and Saturday. After briefly VEERING to the west Saturday night, winds will back to southerly once again for Sunday into Monday as speeds settle back to 10 kt or less. && .AVIATION (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)... LIFR conditions holding at ECP, TLH, and DHN with a mix of LOW STRATUS, dense fog, and even some localized smoke from smoldering fires across SE Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. VFR at the moment at ABY and VLD even though VLD had previously dipped to MVFR. Pilots can expect low CIGS and some visibility restrictions over a pretty wide area through about 14z or so to the SW of a EUF-TVI-40J line. Eventually the fog and stratus will dissipate by mid-morning. Still a possibility of some light, isolated showers right along the sea breeze so a 3-HR VCSH group was inserted at ECP 19-22z. Otherwise VFR until tonight when some areas of fog may once again occur. By late in the period (SUNRISE Friday) we could see some SCATTERED thunderstorms over the Gulf beginning to approach the coast, first impacting ECP near or just after 12z Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Despite the DISPERSION tool yielding values of right around 75 in Leon, Jefferson, and Madison Counties in Florida today with forecast minimum RH 29-34%, we will hold off on a Red Flag WARNING for now. The scenario is very marginal, and other important weather elements and fuels will not be close to critical levels. This area will be monitored later this morning in the event RH looks to FALL a little lower or Dispersions look to be slightly higher. After this afternoon, increasing MOISTURE and rain chances should shut down fire weather concerns until after the next major cold front (currently timed for late Tuesday).
WWUS72 KTAE 290724
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
324 AM EDT THU MAR 29 2012
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
224 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2012
Dense Fog Advisory in Effect Until 9 AM CDT This Morning…
the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a dense fog advisory for southeast alabama.
* visibility, dropping to less than one half mile and perhaps as low as zero.
* timing, developing before sunrise and lifting by mid morning.
a dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be reduced to a quarter mile or less. if driving, slow down, use your low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Lots of sunshine again today. Plus, we’ll be close to the record high of 86, set in Dothan in 1994. Here’s the NWS discussion for the next few days:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 445 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2012 SYNOPSIS...At upper levels this morning, we see a broad RIDGE across much of the southern U.S. One short wave of note is moving across Ontario and a long wave TROUGH is approaching the west coast. At the surface, HIGH PRESSURE is centered off the Carolina coast and is ridging westward across the Gulf states just north of the coast. Satellite shows an area of LOW clouds continues to develop over South Central GA. Areas of FOG are noted across the coastal counties from Bay to Walton. However, we have been tracking the east coast sea breeze FRONT AS it progresses westward across the area and this has been scouring out the fog. Therefore, not ADVISORY is planned. SMOKE from various fires across the Big Bend of FL has not been as noticeable this morning. However, visible satellite pictures from yesterday indicated that plenty of smoke was produced. Some of this may yet settle to the ground, but the aforementioned boundary has LIKELY ended any CHANCE for dense smoke and that and that advisory will be cancelled. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... The upper ridge will gradually flatten over the next couple of days as the west coast trough moves east across the nation. While the bulk of the energy in this trough will move east at higher latitudes, at least some will TRACK across the southwestern states and REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH the Gulf Coast by Friday. In the MEAN time, the deep layer ridging will keep things mainly dry. Today will once again see TEMPS soar a good 10 degrees above NORMAL (MID to upper 80s). We went a bit above the MOS based on recent biases. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid 50s inland and around 60 near the coast. By Thursday, the surface ridge axis will slide a bit further to the south allowing low level winds to veer to onshore. This should slowly increase HUMIDITY levels. However, we hold off bringing POPS into the forecast until early Friday morning. Slight chance PoPs were introduced over the Panhandle coastal areas before SUNRISE. By afternoon, we show chance PoPs (30-40) over the western 2/3 of the forecast area with slight chance (20) to the east. Temps will be a FEW degrees lower than today, but still several degrees above normal. At this point, March 2012 looks on track to go into the books as either the warmest or second warmest on record. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)... The global forecast models are painting the SAME general picture tonight for the extended forecast, but there are a few notable differences. This seems to be partially related to disagreement on how to initialize the STORM currently moving onshore on the Pacific coast of the US. Despite the disagreement, the global models mostly result in a similar forecast for our local area with perhaps a few subtle differences. The time line is roughly: (1) increasing RAIN chances ahead of an approaching cold front and upper level trough axis from Friday Night into early Sunday, (2) stronger low-level WAA pattern with warmer weather Monday and Tuesday, AND (3) the approach of another cold front by later Tuesday and Wednesday that could bring a slight cool down and some small rain chances. As the Pacific storm makes it onshore in the next 24 hours, features should become better sampled by the observation network and there may be more model CONVERGENCE for the long term forecast tomorrow night. For rain chances on the early part of the weekend, it looks like there will be a good chance of measurable precip in most spots. PWATs rise to 1.5 standard deviations above normal (around 1.50") with approx. 20m mid-level HEIGHT falls, so the signals appear to be there for decent coverage of showers and storms. PoPs were capped at 40% for now with highest values on Saturday, but if things looks similar over the next few model runs those PoPs will probably be on the rise. We will also have to keep our eyes peeled for some stronger storms. GFS and ECMWF both place us on the eastern edge of a plume of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, with CAPE rising to around 1000-1500 j/kg and 0-6km bulk SHEAR around 30 knots. Main threat looks to be timed on Saturday afternoon and evening on the latest model guidance. As alluded to in the first paragraph of this section, there is potential for a decent warm-up Monday and Tuesday. 850mb temps on the global models rise to +16C on the cool end (GFS, GEM) to +18C on the warm end (ECMWF) by Monday evening. Deep mixing could boost the highs in such a situation up around 90. For now we went warmer than guidance but kept things in the mid-upper 80s. && .MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... Another easterly SURGE is working its way west across the waters this morning. Based on the observations at Cedar Key, it appears the surge will peak around 15 KT and a caution headline will not be necessary. The surface ridge axis will slide south today to a position over the waters. This will result in light winds and low SEAS. The ridge will slip south of the waters Thursday with onshore winds setting up through the weekend. && .AVIATION (THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)... Westward moving boundary has almost propagated westward to DHN and ECP by 07z. Behind this feature, which may be related to the Atlantic sea-breeze, winds have picked up to around 3-5 knots out of the east, which has mitigated a lot of the smoke and fog concerns from earlier this evening. ECP had briefly fallen to 1/4SM in fog, but this surging boundary seems likely to clear things out of LIFR conditions by 08z. Whether or not fog manages to redevelop around SUNSET remains to be seen, but have maintained at least some light fog mention at most of the terminals around 11-12z. VFR expected during the day. && .FIRE WEATHER... The Red Flag WARNING that was issued earlier has been maintained. Most of the inland Florida zones look to hit DISPERSION numbers of 75-85, with higher values around 100 forecast to the west of the Apalachicola River. Minimum RH looks to be in the 32-35% RANGE in the same areas, so this is more of a borderline red flag case with winds also expected to be well below 15 mph. Fuels look to be most receptive to fire growth in Leon County (ERC of 37 yesterday), as well as the western parts of the Panhandle (ERC around 32). Another day with some borderline Dispersion/RH criteria possible on Thursday in the inland Florida zones. No WATCH will be hoisted for that yet.
Sunny and a bit warmer with a high near the record of 85 from 1991 in Dothan. Here’s the NWS discussion:
Several reports have come in stating that visibilities are near zero
in parts of Leon county due to patchy FOG mixing with smoke from a
controlled burn in the southwest part of the county. Specifically,
reports have come in from the Leon/Thomas county line and near Lake
Jackson. Take caution if driving through areas with reduced
visibilities and use your LOW-beam headlights.
Deep layer ridging and dry AIR have combined to provide CLOUD free
and mild conditions area-wide. The SAME controlled burn in southwest
Leon county that allowed patchy areas of smoke to be trapped near
the surface last NIGHT is smoldering once again this morning. The
only difference this morning is that the afternoon seabreeze was
able to push further inland today, helping spread the smoke from the
afternoon burn across a larger area around Leon county. Close to the
fire, visibilities around 3/4 mile are being experienced. Expect
these extremely low visibilities to remain confined to locations in
Leon and northern Wakulla counties. Elsewhere around the region,
patchy smoke exists from several afternoon fires across north
Florida and south Georgia. Visibilities have not been reduced
(at least not significantly) in these areas of smoke.
.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday night)…
Expect the smoke from the fire in SW Leon county to linger near the
ground through MID-morning. Thereafter, the smoke should lift and
mix out a bit, however, it will LIKELY remain present all day across
portions of the western Big Bend and eastern panhandle of Florida.
Another dry, but warm afternoon is expected today with highs
reaching the upper 80s across SE Alabama and northern Florida,
reaching the lower to middle 80s elsewhere.
AS HIGH PRESSURE settles in just east of the local area on
Wednesday, FLOW will shift from easterly to southerly allowing for
a slight increase in MOISTURE across the region. This will do little
except allow for slightly more cloud development, with a VERY
ISOLATED CHANCE for a quick sprinkle along the intersection of the
east coast and Gulf coast seabreeze fronts late in the day across
our southeast Big Bend counties.
For Thursday, guidance has come into a bit better agreement with
respect to the weak FRONT approaching the local area from the north.
It appears as though this front will not make it far enough south to
affect our south Georgia and Alabama counties. Thus, expect another
dry afternoon, with only slightly cooler afternoon highs (low to mid
80s) as heights FALL slightly with the passing of a SHORTWAVE TROUGH
to our north.
.LONG TERM (Friday through next Tuesday)…
The large scale longwave pattern commences fairly deamplified
highlighted in NRN stream by ridging moving across ERN third of
CONUS with recent Ern trough ejected into Atlc. SRN stream
highlighted by weak trough over TX/OK and weak ridging EWD to Ern
seaboard. At surface, low off mid-Atlc coast with backdoor cold
front WSW across CNTRL AL/GA with GFS fastest solution. This front
being pushed SWD by strong great lakes ridging building SSE into TN
Valley. In response, another RIDGE has flattened and settled swd
across Cntrl FL.
During the rest of forecast, at mid/upper levels, Srn trough lingers
across Srn Plains with near zonal flow across Nrn Gulf Fri into SAT.
Assocd shortwave moves slowly ewd from ARKLATEX on Fri to across NRN
Gulf region Sat and Sun before lifting rapidly NEWD. By late
weekend, low deepens over TX. In response, ridging builds NWD from
Gulf of MEX to over SE region into Mon. However, by Tues low/trough
finally moves ewd kicking ridge into WRN Atlc. Models continue to
differ on solution with GFS faster than EURO with passage of upper
trough/ shortwave and subsequent building ridge so overall
confidence days 5-7 not very high.
At surface, a ridge over Nrn Gulf maintains a light onshore flow
THRU the period. On Friday, front stalls just N of area and then
washes out over weekend out as high pressure builds further down
East Coast into FL. Aided by above shortwave moving ENE across
region, all this should provide enough lift for WDLY-SCT CONVECTION
Fri-Sun with best chance on Sat and across mainly N half of CWA
where the frontal remnants would have best chance to interact with
the local seabreeze fronts. Then in response to surface low
developing over TX and then moving NEWD, front retreats NWD. At same
time, models hint at Gulf low moving NEWD and across local area late
Mon into Tues. That low in tandem with digging upper trough will
insure onshore flow and unseasonably warm temperatures.
Will go with wdly sct-sct POPS Fri AFTN-Sun aftn and Mon-Tues with
best chance rain Sat aftn. Otherwise NIL pops. It should be noted
that model differences still exist and if more southern ECMWF
verifies, pops will be noticeably higher on weekend. With CWA in
warm sector, MIN/MAX TEMPS will remain 5 to 10 degrees and 3 to 7
degrees respectively above NORMAL. (AVG inland min/max is 49/76
.AVIATION…thru 12z Wed.
Aside from TLH, expect VFR conditions to prevail at all sites thru
the period. A large fire burning 7 miles southwest of the airport
continues to emit large quantities of smoke. With SW flow…smoke
continues to spread out ENE and expect MVFR to IFR vsbys/cigs at TLH
with brief clear skies as the smoke further settles beneath the
INVERSION thru SUNRISE. Should see restrictions end by mid morning
as deeper mixing returns VFR conditions. After 06z, near CALM onshore
flow will generate MVFR and likely IFR vsbys near sunrise except
Panama City due to fog or fog/smoke combo at TLH.
A weak easterly SURGE in winds and SEAS is expected tonight as winds
continue to veer. Expect marginal cautionary level winds with the
enhancement. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain relatively calm
for the remainder of the week, through the weekend as high pressure
dominates our coastal waters.
Minimum RH is expected to drop below 35% today across inland
sections. However, winds, dispersions and ERC should remain below
critical levels so no WARNING will be issued. Lowest humidities on
wednesday afternoon will remain at critical levels. However, unlike
today dispersions will likely exceed 75 across the inland Panhandle.
This would generate red flag conditions, therefore a WATCH was
issued for this area for Wednesday afternoon. The airmass will
slightly moisten on Thursday. Inland minimum humidities in Florida
will hover in the mid 30s for the rest of the work week, thus there
are no red flag concerns.
Sunny and mild with a nice breeze from the NNW. Afternoon high 82. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...updated for aviation section. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 559 AM EDT Mon Mar 26 2012 SYNOPSIS... AS of 3 AM a large upper level LOW was spinning across the MID-Atlantic coastline, with an amplified pattern UPSTREAM consisting of a deep layer RIDGE across the central U.S. and a deep TROUGH covering the western part of the country. Along the backside of the eastern U.S. upper low, the local area resides in an area of SUBSIDENCE resulting in clear skies and dry conditions. Temperatures have fallen into the middle 50s across inland areas with temperatures along the coast near 60 degrees. The only concern for the next several hours will be the residual SMOKE from a burn across western Leon county yesterday. Expect any remaining smoke to spread southwest through the morning. This may result in areas of reduced visibilities, especially across southern Leon, Wakulla, Franklin, and extreme southeastern Liberty counties. Take caution during your morning commute in these areas. Most of the smoke should dissipate by mid-morning as the NOCTURNAL INVERSION trapping the smoke near the surface erodes. .SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday NIGHT)... Not much to speak of in the short term as a relatively warm and dry airmass remains locked in place area-wide. Upper level ridging will build in from the west as the eastern U.S. low departs further east. This will allow temperatures to become slightly warmer each afternoon. At the surface, HIGH PRESSURE situated well north of the local area will slide east through the period allowing winds to veer from a northerly direction to a more easterly direction by Tuesday night. This will do little except introduce the possibility of a mix of low clouds and FOG on Wednesday morning across south-central Georgia and the eastern Big Bend of Florida. By Wednesday night, the surface ridge will sink south and allow FLOW to continue to veer to a more southerly direction, increasing the likelihood of fog and or low clouds area-wide by Thursday morning. Afternoon highs will gradually climb into the middle to upper 80s through the period with overnight lows in the middle to upper 50s. No RAIN is expected through at least mid-week. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through next Monday)... The large scale longwave pattern commences fairly deamplified especially in SRN stream. NRN stream highlighted by ridging over CENTER half anchored by troughing over WRN and ERN third of CONUS. Srn stream with ridging center of CONUS with near zonal flow wrn and ern third. At surface, low off NJ coast with cold FRONT WSW across TN Valley. Surface ridge has flattened and settled SWD across CNTRL FL. During the rest of forecast, progressive pattern. At mid/upper levels, ERN trough moves across NE states and out into Atlc during Thurs in response to Cntrl Conus ridge building EWD into MS Valley then into FL. Upstream weak SHORTWAVE ejects out of SRN Plains into SE region on SAT followed by stronger former wrn trough. Both the GFS and ECMWF show Canadian trough phasing with TX trough to develop a full LATITUDE long wave trough over Ern by early Sun. By late Sun, trough exits in Atlc and deep layer ridging builds back in for dry NLY steering flow rest of period. At surface, guidance suggests that on Thursday, above amplifying trough should dip far enough SEWD to force above weak backdoor front to FL/GA border with gradually increasing MOISTURE before stalling and then washing out as high pressure builds down East Coast into FL. Aided by shortwave moving ENE across Gulf of MEX, all this may provide enough lift for CONVECTION Fri-Sun with best CHANCE on Sat. Then in response to surface low developing over TX and then moving NEWD, front retreats NWD. That low in tandem with digging upper trough will insure on shore flow and unseasonably warm temperatures. Models continue to show significant differences in how far south front will go so confidence not exceedingly high. Either way, it should be close enough for ISOLATED to SCATTERED showers and thunderstorms across mainly N half of CWA where the front would have a chance to interact with the local seabreeze fronts at least THRU the weekend. With front LIKELY remaining north of CWA for much of period, all this should favor dry conditions with above average temperatures. Will go with WDLY SCT-sct POPS Fri AFTN-Sun aftn with best chance Sat aftn. With CWA in warm sector, MIN/MAX TEMPS will remain 5 to 10 degrees and 3 to 7 degrees respectively above NORMAL. (AVG inland min/max is 49/76 degrees). && .AVIATION...THRU 12Z TUES. VFR conditions under mostly clear skies and light offshore winds will continue through the forecast period. One possible exception would be a smoke plume just west of TLH. This was observed earlier but NNW flow is keeping the smoke away from the terminal so far. HYSPLIT run shows that plume should move WSW and thin out so only possible VSBY restriction would be at Panama City terminal but confidence too low to include in TAFS. Its also possible that patchy light fog will develop near SUNRISE Tues at all but Panama City. && .MARINE... High pressure will allow for light northerly winds and CALM SEAS today through tonight. The only exception will be a slight enhancement in the winds near shore associated with the afternoon seabreeze. By Tuesday winds will shift to the east and result in a nocturnal easterly SURGE in winds and seas Tuesday night, lasting through the day on Wednesday. This will likely increase winds and seas to cautionary levels spreading from east to west Tuesday night through Wednesday. High pressure will sink further south on Wednesday night shifting the winds to a more southerly direction and acting to calm winds and seas once again. As the surface ridge settles overhead, winds and seas will remain calm with slight seabreeze enhancements near shore each afternoon for the remainder of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier AIR has overspread the region. While relative HUMIDITY is expected to drop to critical levels for up to five hours today across much of the eastern Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, winds will be light, dispersions will be less than 75, and ERC values will remain below 35. So we will not issue any warnings. Although the airmass will moisten slightly on Tuesday, several hours of critical RH is expected. However, winds and dispersions are projected to assume critical levels so no watches or WARNING will be issued. For the rest of the work week, lowest inland RH will hover in the mid 30s and no red flag warnings are anticipated at this time.
After a wild day across the area with a few possible tornadoes, we calmed down in Dothan to see a colorful sunset. Dense fog overnight and in the morning. A few storms possible during the first half of the day and then late day clearing. Sunny days return through midweek.
Photos from Friday’s storms can be seen on my Facebook page here… http://www.facebook.com/pages/Rob-Jones-WTVY-News-4/216152758483358
bulletin – eas activation requested
National Weather Service tallahassee fl
1249 PM CDT fri mar 23 2012
the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a
* tornado warning for,
northeastern geneva county in southeast alabama,
southeastern henry county in southeast alabama,
northern houston county in southeast alabama,
southwestern early county in southwest georgia…
* until 130 PM cdt/230 PM edt/
* at 1244 PM CDT, a developing tornado has been detected by the National Weather Service near slocomb, moving east at 40 mph.
* other locations in the warning include but are not limited to taylor, dothan, cowarts, webb, ashford and columbia
take cover now! leave mobile homes and vehicles for safer structures. move to a hallway or closet on the lowest floor away from windows and outside walls.
lat, lon 3140 8507 3112 8503 3108 8559 3118 8564
time, mot, loc 1749Z 252Deg 33Kt 3116 8552
Windy and warm with scattered storms after midday. After going about 2 weeks without any rain, a slow-moving front in Mississippi will ease into our area later today, bringing clouds and isolated storms to a few areas. High will be 82. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 538 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled cold FRONT to the west of the area will begin to push through the area on Friday into Saturday increasing chances of PRECIPITATION. Conditions improve for the latter half of the weekend AS HIGH PRESSURE moves in on the heals of the cold front. && .NEAR TERM (Today)... Upper level RIDGE over the Southeast US for the past FEW days continues to weaken and erode. This is putting our area in a squeeze play between the slowly approaching cold front to the west and a moist southeast FLOW from the east. Much of the dry AIR over the region is now beginning to give way to more moist conditions as a result. An analysis of CURRENT trends and new model guidance would suggest that the stalling cold front to the west will not make it into our western zones in any appreciable way. Further to the east, today`s setup is similar to yesterday and expect that we will again see enhanced activity from the Atlantic sea breeze interaction with the Big Bend sea breeze during the late afternoon. For locations between the western and eastern extremes will see much less coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Nonetheless we expect coverage to be slightly higher than yesterday due to the increase in MOISTURE noted above. Also an issue is the strong southeast FETCH over the coastal waters. This will serve to produce a rip current threat from roughly ST George Island westward. Locations west of Panama City will see high rip current threats due to the increased exposure to southeast winds. Have decided to issue a Rip Current statement as a result. This threat is expected to diminish as the winds subside later this afternoon. .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday)... The stalled frontal system to the west of the area will start to eject out of the southeast US toward the northeast beginning tonight. Much of the forcing is expected to lift north with the parent LOW. However, the associated cold front now just west of the area will take on more of a northeast/southwest orientation and begin to push through the area. This will increase RAIN chances later Friday into Saturday morning. POPS have been increased this forecast cycle to account for the greater certainty association with the frontal passage. .LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT through next Thursday)... The closed upper low will be over the Ohio Valley with the TROUGH axis cutting through our CWA to begin the period. The low and trough will move east and off the MID-Atlantic coast Sunday night with deep layer ridging building in the first part of next week. The upper ridge flattens by Wednesday night with zonal flow for Thursday. At the surface, showers and thunderstorms will be ending from west to east as a cold front pushes through Saturday night. Offshore flow and a drier airmass filter in behind the front Sunday and Monday. As high pressure drops south out of east Canada Tuesday to become centered off the southeast CONUS Wednesday, winds gradually swing around to the southeast and south. The moist onshore flow continues through the remainder of the forecast period with low end CHANCE PoPs on Thursday. MAX temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s each day. Minimum temperatures will be in the lower to mid 60s Saturday night and then drop into the lower to mid 50s across most areas next week. While these temperatures are cooler than what we have seen lately, they are still above seasonal norms. && .AVIATION... We expect some low clouds to develop in the pre-DAWN hours around or just after 09Z. Ceilings will primarily be MVFR, although we did allow for a period of IFR at TLH and VLD. SCATTERED showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and for now went with Prob30 groups for all sites in the 18z-24z time frame. Winds will be southeast to south around 10 knots with higher gusts later this morning and afternoon. && .MARINE... A strong southeast WIND fetch across the waters will keep SEAS elevated through this morning and into the afternoon. Winds are then expected to subside during the later afternoon and seas will follow. A cold front then approaches later Friday into Saturday switching winds around to the west and bringing in a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. The front will then push south on Sunday and conditions will improve for the later half of the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... High dispersions are forecast again this afternoon but minimum relative humidities will be above critical levels. There are no fire weather concerns at least through Saturday.
On the thermometer, the actual high will not be as close to the record as the last few days, but is is still going to be hot for us for this time of year. With a few more clouds around, the high will reach 84, but the most noticeable factor in our weather will be the increase in winds. With gusts up to 25 mph from time-to-time, it is going to be a very warm and windy day, with storms in the forecast for Thursday afternoon, Friday and Saturday. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 350 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2012 For today, the FCST still appears on TRACK with the strong blocking pattern holding off the vigorous Upper Level Low off to the west over TX and OK. However, this powerful system continues to generate plenty of CONVECTION over eastern TX, as well as much of LA and AR. Due to the blocking Upper RIDGE over our region, this band of convection will only make very modest eastward progress today, and should remain off to our west. Like Tuesday, however, just enough Atlantic MOISTURE may entrain far enough to the west to warrant Iso to SCT AFTN showers and storms over eastern portions of the CWA. Also, while at this time yesterday, it appeared that the FL Panhandle beaches may have a high risk of rip currents today, it looks like this will be pushed back one day to Thursday. However, there still will be a moderate risk of rip currents at both the Panhandle and Big Bend beaches today. For Thursday through Friday very little has changed with the overall fcst, as the blocking pattern should continue to slowly break down. This will allow more moisture and greater RAIN chances to enter the region from the west, but the Upper Level Low should undergo enough weakening to significantly limit the chances for any strong to severe storms to generate over our CWA. However, with the increase in cloud cover and rain chances, High TEMPS will finally be slightly on the decrease from the unusually warm early March levels we have experienced this month so far. && .Long Term...(Saturday through next Wednesday)...The strong upper ridge that has been dominate over the eastern third of the CONUS the past several days will gradually break down Friday through Friday night. The closed upper low currently near the Texas Panhandle will initially lift slowly north to northeast into northern Missouri Friday afternoon. The low will then slide east to southeast over the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Both the 12z EURO and 00z GFS are remarkably close in tracking the low through North Carolina on Sunday. This feature weakens into an open wave shortly after moving off the eastern seaboard with upper ridging building back in across the local region in its WAKE. Surface high PRESSURE will be centered east of the Florida peninsula to start the period and will retreat eastward allowing a cold FRONT to advance and push across the CWA Saturday night. SCATTERED showers and thunderstorms will precede the front. Will have CHANCE/good chance POPS for the Friday through Saturday night time frame. Deep layer ridging and a drier airmass will return to the region Monday through Wednesday. Despite the passage of a cold front, temperatures will remain above seasonal levels through the period. && .Aviation...Brief periods of MVFR vsbys/cigs due to fog are possible around SUNRISE. Any fog that develops will dissipate by MID-morning returning all terminals to VFR conditions with southeast winds around 10 KTS through the afternoon. && .Marine...Although the pressure GRADIENT will be a bit tighter today than on Tuesday, it will still be mainly overnight and morning southeasterly WIND surges that will push the Coastal Waters into cautionary levels today into Thursday. By Thursday Night and Friday, these stronger surges should come to an end, as the once powerful Low pressure system off to our west continues to steadily weaken as it very slowly approaches the Marine Area. && .Fire Weather...High dispersions are forecast again today and Thursday but minimum relative humidities are expected to be above critical levels. There are no fire weather concerns at least into the first part of the weekend.
Another day with afternoon highs near the record of 86 (from 1963 in Dothan). Gusty winds will certainly be noticeable. Plus, along the coast, moderate rip currents will be a concern. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 330 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2012 For today and tonight, the Upper Level RIDGE should remain in general control of the region, and will continue to hold the potent upper level LOW off to our west. However, there are a FEW small, but energetic, vort lobes to our NE in the Atlantic Ocean, an there may be just enough MOISTURE entrainment from the east this afternoon and evening to account for Slight CHANCE POPS late this afternoon/early this evening for eastern portions of the CWA. Based of the latest 00 UTC run from our local WRF, will strongly consider 20% PoPs from 18 to 00 UTC and 00 to 06 UTC in this area. Otherwise, it should be another unseasonably warm and humid day across the region, with highs at least in the MID 80s away from the coast once again. Will completely discard the very HIGH "bullseye" Pops from the MET guidance tonight. For Wed. through Thu., it appears as though the models are finally coming into a reasonable sense of agreement in how to handle the interaction of the potent southern stream SHORTWAVE and the CWA protecting steep Upper Level Ridge, which will entail a somewhat faster breakdown of our protecting Ridge, which may allow for higher PoPs and lower MAX TEMPS on Wed and Thu, but may also allow for a quicker Cold Frontal passage from what`s left of this Low PRESSURE system over the weekend. While we will trend higher with the short term PoPs this package, it still appears unlikely that any of the strong to severe storms (which have been firing off to our west), will actually make it into our CWA. && .Long Term...(Friday through next Tuesday)...The 12z EURO and 00z GFS are now in better agreement especially with respect to the strength and forecast TRACK of the closed upper low. At the beginning of the period, the upper low will be over the central plains and move into the Missouri Valley on Friday as the stubborn upper ridge over the eastern third of the CONUS continues to break down. Meanwhile, the surface high will be centered east of the mid-Atlantic states pumping in plenty of Gulf moisture ahead of the associated cold FRONT which will still be off to our west. We will increase PoPs into the chance category on Friday. Over the weekend, the stacked low pressure system will translate across the Ohio Valley and move off the mid-Atlantic coast late Sunday with the cold front pushing through the local area Saturday night or early Sunday. PoPs will be in the chance category Saturday tapering off to slight for Sunday. Deep layer ridging builds back into the region early next week along with the return of a drier airmass. Temperatures will remain above seasonal levels each day although max and MIN temps will trend down a few degrees in the WAKE of the cold front early next week. && .Aviation...Brief periods of MVFR vsbys due to fog are possible just prior to SUNRISE. Any fog that develops will dissipate by mid-morning returning all terminals to VFR conditions with winds around 10 KTS through the afternoon. && .Marine...The Pressure GRADIENT is already tightening over the northern Gulf of Mexico overnight, with Small Craft Advisory conditions already developing off to the west of our Coastal Waters. This tighter gradient (between the Surface Ridge to the northeast and the approaching TROUGH of low pressure to the west) will shift eastward today through Thursday, and should allow for periods of Cautionary (to possibly even Advisory) level conditions over a good portion of the Marine Area during the next few days. Lighter winds and lower SEAS appear in store for the Coastal Waters by Friday and over the upcoming weekend, as a weakening Cold Front passes through the Marine Area. && .Fire Weather...High dispersions are forecast today and again on Wednesday but minimum relative humidities are expected to near or above critical levels both afternoons. There are no fire weather concerns at least through the remainder of the week.
Today is the first official day of Spring. Here’s why we have different seasons on Earth.
Want to read more? Click here.
Sunny and hot for this time of year. High will be near 88 in the inland areas, record for today in Dothan is 88 from 1955. Not much of a breeze, plus, very dry for the few days. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 400 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2012 SYNOPSIS and Short Term...(Rest of tonight through Wednesday)...The extremely amplified Upper Level Pattern, will continue to become more dramatic over the next FEW days, AS a strong SHORTWAVE enters the Pacific SW and re-energizes the Steep TROF already in place. This newly energized Trof is then PROGGED carve its way gradually eastward along the U.S. border w/ Mexico during the next few days, but it still appears as though Strong Upper Level Ridging will continue to protect our CWA from this trof through at least the short term period. This should result in more of the SAME type of weather for our region, which will be a continuation of the very warm early SPRING weather, with HIGH TEMPS climbing into the MID to upper 80s away from the coast each day. With the continuation of the unseasonably warm and humid conditions, late NIGHT/early morning FOG and LOW clouds will remain a concern, as will ISOLATED afternoon and evening CONVECTION (especially by Wednesday as the Trof gets a bit closer from the west, and some Atlantic MOISTURE may get entrained from the east). Over the coastal waters, outside of the generally light winds and low SEAS, still monitoring the nearshore Panhandle waters for the generation of sea fog, which is still in its formative stages as of midnight EDT. Will also need to monitor the fog potential across the interior as we get closer to the morning commute. && .Long Term...(Thursday through next Monday)...The 00z GFS and 12z EURO show the CUTOFF upper low over or near the Texas Panhandle Wednesday night. The low is being blocked by a sharp but narrow upper RIDGE with axis extending from the eastern Gulf through the Great Lakes region. Both models are in good agreement early on lifting the low slowly northward into central Kansas by Friday afternoon. Thereafter the models show the ridge breaking down with the low migrating across the eastern CONUS. The EURO is more aggressive in breaking down the ridge and tracks the low east across Missouri Saturday, southeast into Georgia on Sunday and then off the South Carolina coast on Monday. The GFS solution tracks the low further to the north across the Ohio Valley Saturday/Saturday night. This feature weakens into an open wave as it moves off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday. The EURO solution brings increasing RAIN chances over the weekend with the passage of a cold FRONT late Sunday into early Monday. The GFS shows surface high PRESSURE remaining in control throughout the period with a weak cold front stalling or washing out north of our CWA Monday. For now, will only place a slight POP over our northern zones on Sunday. Temperatures will remain above seasonal levels each day although afternoon temps may trend down a few degrees by the end of the week and into the weekend. && .Aviation...CIGS and VSBYS are expected to gradually lower to IRF/LIFR conditions in the pre-DAWN hours at ECP, TLH and VLD with MVFR conditions at DHN and ABY. VFR conditions return to all sites shortly after SUNRISE. Winds will be from the east to southeast around 10 KTS today. && .Marine...With SFC Ridging holding on to our NE and a Trof of Low Pressure gradually approaching from the West, expect a gradual tightening of the Sfc Pressure GRADIENT over time across the Coastal Waters. This may lead to periods of Cautionary or even low end Small Craft ADVISORY conditions over parts of the Marine Area from Tuesday into Thursday of this week, with much more uncertain conditions by the end of the week and beginning of next weekend. Also, the area of Dense Fog is forming along the Panhandle Coastline this morning, so will leave the CURRENT Dense Fog Advisory for the Nearshore Panhandle Waters in effect. && .Fire Weather...DISPERSION indices are forecast to be above 75 over most of north Florida this afternoon as transport winds increase. However, minimum afternoon relative humidities are now expected to be at or just above critical levels over interior portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. We have cancelled the fire weather WATCH but will monitor relative HUMIDITY values later this morning. High dispersions are forecast again for Tuesday and Wednesday but minimum relative humidities are expected to be above critical levels both afternoons.
We missed tieing the afternoon high record for Dothan by 1 degree Thursday. With so much sunshine expected again today, our afternoon high will be right at 88, which is the record in Dothan for today set in 1967. A few isolated storms are expected again in the afternoon and early evening. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 555 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2012 ...Near record warmth to continue... .SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...Very warm March pattern will continue through the weekend AS the upper RIDGE dominating the Gulf Coast region builds north in the New England by Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will remain well above NORMAL with highs in the MID to upper 80s. MOS guidance continues to show a cool BIAS, with the MAV continuing have the coolest numbers. Will follow yesterday`s forecast philosophy of going 1 to 2 degrees above the warmest guidance. This gets TLH to 87 degrees this afternoon, which would tie the record HIGH for the date. High temperatures will reach similar levels for Saturday and Sunday. However, Sunday might be a degree or two cooler, with gridded guidance dropping 850mb temperatures by a FEW degrees from today. ISOLATED to SCATTERED thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon as the seabreeze combines with weak upper impulses and moderate INSTABILITY to generate CONVECTION. High-res guidance suggests the highest POPS will be across south Georgia Today and then the I-75 corridor on Saturday, and will lean towards those tendencies for this forecast package. As with the past several days, steep lapse rates and dry mid-levels suggest the potential for marginally severe HAIL with the strongest storms this afternoon. .LONG TERM (Sunday NIGHT through next Friday)...At the onset of the extended forecast there is excellent model agreement on an amplified synoptic FLOW pattern with a deep western TROUGH and DOWNSTREAM eastern ridge - with the ridge axis aligned roughly over our local forecast area. The global models have been fairly consistent over the past few days worth of runs showing a CUTOFF LOW developing on Tuesday-Wednesday somewhere near the Southern Plains or Ozark region. The main question is related to the timing, and how exactly that will eventually eject to more eastern longitudes. The 16.00z operational runs of the ECMWF and GFS kick the upper level low out fast enough to push a low-level cold FRONT into our area by Thursday or Friday. Meanwhile, the ECMWF ENSEMBLE and GFS Ensemble both show increasing HEIGHT spreads in that timeframe with differing solutions amongst the various perturbed runs. Therefore, there isn`t a lot of confidence in a particular cold front timing (or if one will even reach our area at all). Still, with increasing southeast low-level flow in the latter half of the week and 0-1km mixing ratios forecast to increase from around 8 g/kg on Tuesday to 12 g/kg by Thursday, it seems like we may see increasing RAIN chances again regardless. PoPs were reintroduced starting on Wednesday mainly for scattered showers in the increasing WAA and MOISTURE ADVECTION regime. Prior to the arrival of increased low CLOUD cover and moisture, we should see a continuation of the warm weather from the short term period (as discussed above). 500mb heights and 1000-500mb thickness will slowly be falling from Sunday through Tuesday, and therefore it doesn`t seem LIKELY that high temperatures will be quite as warm as what we are currently experiencing this week. A blend of ECMWF and GFS MOS numbers yields 83-85F on Monday and 82-83F on Tuesday. This is similar to the previous forecast and not much different than the gridded HPC guidance. && .AVIATION (through 12z Saturday)...FOG has struggled to SET in at most locations other than ECP which is in close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico. It appears the dense fog this morning is generally within 10 to 15 miles of the Gulf, with some patchy light fog with VFR or high-end MVFR visibilities elsewhere. Another round of DIURNAL scattered storms are in the forecast this afternoon. This was handled with VCSH and CB cloud group in the time window most favorable for storms. && .MARINE...High PRESSURE will remain situated over the waters through the weekend with minimal winds and SEAS. The high will retreat to the east by Monday into Tuesday of next week, allowing for a modest increase in the easterly winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER...Minimum afternoon relative HUMIDITY will be around 30-35% over much of the area the next several days. However, other red flag criteria (winds, ERC, DISPERSION) will remain well away from critical thresholds. Therefore, no fire weather headlines are expected for the foreseeable future.
Along the Florida Gulf Coast, it has been very active in a couple of spots where these stray storms have been able to pop up. Lots of lightning is continuing at this time with the potential for hail up to 1 inch in diameter. Lightning is a big killer so stay inside. Remember, “When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors”. If you can hear thunder you are within striking distance of lightning, even if blue skies are right overhead. For more on lightning safety check out the NOAA’s site http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/
It’s sunny and dry to finish the day inAlabamaas drier air has filtered down to the surface from the middle levels of the atmosphere. This has helped suppress cloud and storm development. The dewpoint, which is a good measure of moisture in the air, is about 10 degrees lower than yesterday afternoon. Even with the very warm temperatures we have seen this afternoon, it FEELS LIKE it’s actually slightly less warm than the actual temperature. Remember the old adage it’s not the heat, but the humidity. Conversely, part of the reason we may have been able to warm as much as we did today with high temperature close to record levels is because of the dry air. The drier the air, the quicker it is able to heat up and cool down.
Sunny and hot today. With fewer clouds, we could be close to the record high of 88 set in 1989 in Dothan. Plus, we’ll have a chance for some ioslated thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 635 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2012 SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...Upper RIDGE will remain in place over the Gulf of Mexico into the weekend, keeping temperatures more in line with late SPRING, rather than MID-March. Following Wednesday`s record-tying HIGH of 87, expect another very warm day today with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. MOS guidance has been a bit on the cool side with this pattern, so have gone well above the MAV and a degree or two above the MET for today. While the CURRENT forecast high for TLH is 88, reaching the record of 90 is not out of the question. AS with the past two days, the warm SFC TEMPS coupled with cool mid-levels (-15C at 500mb) will lead to steep LOW- to mid-level lapse rates and CAPE in the 1500-2000j/kg RANGE. Very weak SHORTWAVE energy moving across the TOP of the ridge this afternoon should be just enough to trigger ISOLATED to SCATTERED thunderstorms. Sufficient dry AIR is also present in the mid- levels to support a FEW strong storms with marginally severe HAIL being the primary risk. Friday and Saturday are expected to be near repeats of today with the upper ridge remaining relatively unchanged and weak impulses generating isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to remain well above NORMAL into the weekend. .LONG TERM (Saturday NIGHT through next Thursday)...Not a whole lot has changed on the forecast reasoning for the long term period from this time last night. Global models still favor a highly amplified FLOW pattern across the CONUS from the weekend into early next week. This will feature a deep TROUGH across the western US, with a ridge axis prominently stretched from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into Ontario and Hudson Bay. The 15.00z runs of the ECMWF and GFS maintain excellent agreement on the synoptic pattern with less than 30 meters of 500mb HEIGHT variation between the two model solutions. This continues to lend high confidence to the extended forecast, at least with respect to temperatures and approximate position of surface PRESSURE features. It looks like our stretch of very warm weather will REACH a peak sometime this weekend. 500mb heights rise from about 5800m Friday evening to 5840m Sunday afternoon before leveling off and slowly decreasing into the next work week. Similarly, over the SAME time frame, the 1000-500mb thicknesses rise about 50m before falling back on Monday-Tuesday. As such, mid-80s highs were included for Sunday with things falling back more into the low-80s to around 80 degrees on Monday and Tuesday. As we saw yesterday (3/14) the models have had a cool BIAS of about 2-3 degrees in the current pattern. Given there is expected to be little/slow change over much of the forecast period, we can probably expect a similar bias to extend into the long term period. For this reason, forecast highs are generally a degree or two higher than guidance through Tuesday. Slight CHANCE POPS were maintained on Sunday afternoon as more isolated, diurnally-driven showers and storms will be possible. Models are reluctant to show a SURGE of drier air on Monday and Tuesday as was depicted last night, and therefore it`s possible there could be some isolated showers continuing beyond Sunday. Given uncertainty, we went with silent 10% PoPs for now. Beyond that, the ECMWF and GFS show the deep western trough evolving to a large CUTOFF low over the Ozarks & Mid South. This would bring more formidable RAIN chances into our area later in the week. && .AVIATION (through 12z Friday)...Satellite and observations at this hour confirm that the more WIDESPREAD and dense FOG is just to the west of our area in much of Alabama. Most of the terminals have been fluctuating from predominately VFR/MVFR conditions briefly down to LIFR in some of the patchy fog. With no mid level clouds over the area, this patchy fog should burn off quickly after SUNRISE (13z). Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon. Indications are that some of the stronger ones could produce some gusty winds. However, the PROBABILITY of any one strong STORM impacting a terminal is low. && .MARINE...High pressure will remain parked along the northern Gulf coast into early next week keeping winds and SEAS rather CALM. No headlines are expected through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER...Despite RH falling to around or just below 35% in north Florida (and most of our zones) today and tomorrow, the other red flag criteria will not come close to being met. No headlines are expected over the next week as RH generally remains above critical levels and we have periodic isolated-scattered rain chances.
Expect some fog developing overnight that could be dense in spots for your Thursday morning drive.
If you want to know how WARM it was on Wednesday or what the FORECAST is into early next week click here…
bulletin – eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
National Weather Service tallahassee fl
617 PM CDT wed mar 14 2012
the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a
* severe thunderstorm warning for,
southeastern houston county in southeast alabama,
southwestern early county in southwest georgia,
northwestern seminole county in southwest georgia…
* until 645 PM cdt/745 PM edt/
* at 614 PM CDT, the National Weather Service has detected a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail, and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. this storm was located near saffold, and moving south at 5 mph.
* other locations in the warning include but are not limited to lucy, crosby and chattahoochee sp
this is a dangerous storm. if you are in its path, prepare
immediately. people outside should move inside a strong building but away from windows.
lat, lon 3110 8495 3100 8496 3100 8517 3100 8518
time, mot, loc 2317Z 022Deg 4Kt 3111 8505
A little warmer today with just enough sunshine to push afternoon highs into the low 80s. Plus, we’ll still have a few isolated showers popping up from time-to-time. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 645 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2012 **Updated most recently for 12z Aviation Discussion.** .NEAR TERM (Early this morning)...Surface OBS and satellite imagery indicate an area of dense FOG over portions of the Florida Panhandle this morning. Fog appears to be WIDESPREAD enough from Panama City westward to warrant a Dense Fog ADVISORY through MID-morning. 11-3.9 MICRON imagery supports pushing the advisory into southeast Alabama AS well. .SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...Relatively zonal FLOW across the CONUS this morning will gradually become more amplified over the next several days as a deep TROUGH develops along the U.S. west coast and a strong RIDGE builds over the eastern third of the country. The ridge is initially forecast to build just west of the forecast area this afternoon, which will allow some weak SHORTWAVE energy to drop into south Georgia and north Florida this afternoon. With warm surface temperatures (lower to mid 80s) and relatively cool mid-levels (-15C at 500mb), there will be enough INSTABILITY once again this afternoon for ISOLATED thunderstorms, especially along the I-75 corridor. A bit of small HAIL cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms. Coverage will be limited, so have kept POPS in the isolated category. The upper ridge will be situated directly over the region by Thursday which should prohibit any afternoon CONVECTION from developing. Expect temperatures to REACH the mid 80s at inland locations for Thursday afternoon. Isolated PoPs will return for Friday as the ridge axis pulls slightly back to the west. However, still not anticipated substantial coverage. .LONG TERM (Friday NIGHT through next Wednesday)...There is very good agreement among global models on the synoptic flow pattern over the CONUS during the long term period. Over the upcoming weekend, the 14.00z runs of the ECMWF and GFS show less than 30 meter HEIGHT differences at 500mb over most of the country, which is remarkable agreement in the T+96hr forecast time frame. Therefore, confidence is higher than NORMAL in the forecast through the early to middle part of next week. As a powerful JET streak develops eastward from east Asia to near the North American Pacific coast over the next FEW days, a deep and HIGH-AMPLITUDE trough will develop over the western CONUS by the weekend. At the SAME time, there is expected to be DOWNSTREAM development of a high-amplitude ridge with the ridge axis extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to Hudson Bay in eastern Canada. This will keep a LOW-level ANTICYCLONE locked in place near the Mid Atlantic US coast with generally QUIET and warm weather across our forecast area. 500mb heights are expected to be 1.5-3.0 standard deviations above normal over much of eastern North America with 850mb temperatures around 1 std. dev. above normal in our area. This amounts to a synoptically evident pattern favoring widespread warmth and above normal temperatures over the eastern half of the country (including our area). ECMWF, GEM and GFS all show 850mb temperatures around +12C from the weekend into early next week which is similar to what was observed on the 00z TAE SOUNDING today (highs today were around 82-83F at most inland locations). Therefore, it seems LIKELY that highs will continue to be in the low-to-mid 80s through at least Tuesday with no major pattern change on the HORIZON. As statistical guidance (like the MEX) tends to be weighted to CLIMATOLOGY at longer time scales, we will maintain the warmer TEMPERATURE forecast with high confidence in improving on MOS highs. As far as PoPs go, some `slight CHANCE` (15-20%) PoPs were inserted over the weekend. PWATs stay high around 1.2-1.3 inches, or around 175% of normal values, in that time frame and the GFS has consistently shown diurnally-driven QPF that peaks in the afternoon hours. Even with weak flow and no synoptic-scale forcing aloft, we should be nearing our afternoon convective temperature on the weekend, so isolated showers and storms seem appropriate. Drier AIR filters in by Monday, so the forecast from Monday- Wednesday was kept dry for now. && .AVIATION (through 12z Thursday)...Fog has settled in across western parts of the area with ECP and DHN both dipping down to 1/4SM with fog being reported. The other terminals have had to contend with a slightly drier air mass and some mid level clouds that have limited fog development thus far. It still seems possible that TLH and VLD may briefly dip down to 2-3SM VISIBILITY right around SUNRISE, but otherwise most of the lower flight categories will stay further west. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are still expected. These should be isolated, and therefore this was handled with VCSH or prevailing SHRA in the various TAFs, with a few CB groups as well to try to convey some general timing. && .MARINE...Subtropical ridge axis will remain in place along the northern Gulf coast through the end of the week. This will keep relatively light easterly flow in place over the coastal waters through the forecast period. No headline conditions are anticipated at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER...Minimum RH is generally expected to remain at or just above 35% through the weekend, so no fire weather headlines are anticipated in the near future. Some isolated-SCATTERED showers and storms will be possible through the weekend, but nothing that would affect fuel MOISTURE over a widespread area. Fog will be a possibility each night with low INVERSION levels, so lingering SMOKE from any burns would locally reduce visibility.
WWUS72 KTAE 140739
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
339 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012
COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES- WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON…SLOCOMB…MALVERN… TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…COWARTS…WEBB…
COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS…HUDSON…BONIFAY… CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE… MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…
WEWAHITCHKA…FREEPORT…SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…
PARKER…PORT SAINT JOE
339 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012 /239 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012/
Dense Fog Advisory in Effect Until 10 AM EDT /9 AM Cdt/ This Morning…
the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a dense fog advisory, which is in effect until 10 AM EDT /9 AM cdt/ this morning.
* visibility, one-quarter mile or less.
* impacts, low visibility will make travel difficult in spots until mid-morning.
a dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to less than one quarter mile. if driving, slow down, use your low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Clouds breaking a little by mid-morning and a wee bit warmer today. A stray shower is possible, but will be the exception to the rule. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 530 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2012 .AVIATION... MID-HIGH level clouds from a dissipated MCS to the west have moved in this early morning and prevented LOW VIS and cigs across most of our area this morning. We now expect to see prevailing VFR conditions with southeast to south winds less than 10 KT today, except for an afternoon sea breeze around 10 kt (gusts near 20 kt) at KECP. SHRA/TSRA are forecast to be too ISOLATED to mention in this forecast package. ____________________________________________________________________ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: .SYNOPSIS... During the overnight hours, a weak ENE moving SHORTWAVE continued to weaken AS it punched into the local amplified upper RIDGE. Still it allowed for some SHOWER activity although most remained just north of our GA counties. AT UPPER LEVELS... The large scale longwave pattern remains fairly amplified in the NRN stream but relatively deamplified in the SRN stream. This is highlighted in Nrn stream by TROUGH over extreme ERN Pacific, ridging over WRN states, shortwave trough/low over upper Great Lakes, quasi-zonal FLOW and WLY steering flow over local region, and a full LATITUDE ridge over Ern seaboard with axis down extreme Wrn Atlc. Position of ridge has allowed enough of a weakness to SET up over NE Gulf region to allow a FEW impulses to ride EWD each day. During the next 24-48 HRS, the Great Lakes low will remain partially absorbed in the Nrn stream flow as it slowly moves east to Ontario and Lake Superior early this morning then ESE to Wrn New England by 12z Wed. However, a second shortwave from energy left behind will gradually drop SE through the forecast area later today slightly suppressing ridge, especially ern portions, providing another opportunity for a CHANCE of showers and ISOLD tstms. By Wednesday, lifting low will allow Gulf deep layer ridging to build NWD with NWLY steering flow, rising heights, warming TEMPS, clearing skies and suppressed PRECIPITATION over local region rest of period. AT LOWER LEVELS... During the next 24-48hrs, surface low assocd with above great lakes low will move from Ontario to Que and partially fill into a trough. Closer to home, high PRESSURE well of the Carolina Coast with ridging SWWD to FL coast. Over last 24 hrs, high has shifted ewd and ridge has weakened resulting in a weakening of local gradients. High is expected to drift SWD today with local winds further VEERING and becoming even lighter. This translates to continued warm and humid conditions and a weak late AFTN seabreeze which may kick off a few showers. By Wed as high shifts further NEWD, low level flow shifts to dry NELY. By Thurs, building upper ridge nwd will help allow surface counterpart to strengthen WSW suppressing any RAIN to near the coast. .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... Rain chances will become increasingly scare THRU the period. The best chances for rain will remain across our Alabama and Georgia the next two aftns and near the coast on Thurs aftn. With NWLY steering flow aloft Wed and especially Thurs, ALTHO large scale forcing is weak, some SHEAR aided by ample DIURNAL heating could generate an isold strong to possibly severe PULSE STORM in aftn/EVE. As ridging builds in, highs will increase to the mid 80s by Thursday. Light SE low level flow and rising DEW points yield increasing chance of late NIGHT and early morning FOG at least tonight. TODAY...GFS and especially NAM continue to be way too wet. WRF also continues putting too much emphasis on seabreeze generated precip. Local CAM is driest and worked well last two days and will lean towards this solution. With shortwave expected to brush mainly nrn tier GA zones as ridge to be weakest NE portions of CWA, and with light SLY flow, 0-30% S-N POP GRADIENT looks like a good bet. With TAE GFS soundings this aftn showing 1.3 PWAT, -3/7 LI and about 1400 J/KG CAPE some tstms LIKELY and with passing shortwave cant discount a strong storm mainly GA counties. Expect highs from upper 70s SE AL/GA to around 80 elsewhere. TONIGHT...20-0% N-SE pop gradient with rain ending with loss of sun. Lows from mid 50s inland to around 60 at coast. With moist low levels, areas of fog, possibly dense, to develop late. WEDNESDAY...As ridge builds a little bit EWD, only 20% mainly afternoon showers with highs mid 70s coast to low to mid 80s inland. NIL POPS at night with lows mid 50s inland to around 60 coast. Fog likely to develop again some locales. THURSDAY...10-20% N-S pop gradient. Highs mid 70s coast to mid 80s inland. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) The global model show perhaps one more weak short wave trespassing through the 500 MB ridge over the Southeast U.S. Friday and/or Saturday, which could allow for enough increase in deep layer MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, and lift for a slight PoP. After this, a major amplification of the 500 mb HEIGHT field is forecast to commence, with a large AMPLITUDE ridge building over the eastern CONUS into the next work week. This sort of large scale pattern typically means warm temperatures for our area, limited somewhat by afternoon sea breezes coming off the still rather chilly shelf waters of the Gulf of Mexico. If this were SUMMER, this sea breeze would serve as a trigger for afternoon storms; but this time of YEAR the THETA-E values in the mid to lower TROPOSPHERE are still a bit too low to support deep moist CONVECTION, so our PoP will be 10 percent or less. As for temperatures, highs will be in the lower to mid 80s (away from the cooler beaches), or about 10 degrees above CLIMATOLOGY. The airmass will be dry enough (and the nights still long enough) for lows to REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH the 50s. && .MARINE... High pressure will settle into place over our coastal waters resulting in winds and SEAS remaining below headline criteria through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... The relative HUMIDITY will likely remain too high for red flag conditions this week.
Cloudy and breezy with some scattered showers and a high of 78. A few storms expected this afternoon and early evening.
Here’s the NWS Discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 645 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2012 .AVIATION... Areas of MVFR cigs are expected this morning and into this afternoon, with the best CHANCE of persistent MVFR cigs being at KECP where cigs were already ongoing. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA are expected in southeast AL, but we`ve left it out of the KDHN TAF for now. Winds of 5 to 10 KT will veer from east early to southeast. There is conflicting guidance AS to whether or not there will be lower cigs and VISIBILITY late tonight, so we will address these issues on the 18 UTC TAF package. .SYNOPSIS... AT UPPER LEVELS... The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by troughiness across extreme ERN PAC/PAC NW, negatively tilted TROUGH with closed LOW over IA, and an amplified RIDGE over Ern states. During today, base of trough lifts NEWD with low weakening as it lifts to Lake Superior by sundown. This will serve to shunt ern ridge offshore yielding rather fast low AMPLITUDE FLOW across most of CONUS, but slightly weaker SWLY flow across local region. This in turn allows minor impulses to ride EWD and across NE Gulf region providing minor lift for some precip today, mainly NW portions. On Tuesday, trough/low into Que with local flow shifting to weak ridging then by Tues NIGHT into Wed, upper ridge in Gulf of MEX begins building N and E thus deep layer ridging reestablishes control across the local area. This keeps unseasonably warm and MUGGY conditions across CWFA. AT LOWER LEVELS... Analysis shows main features are a SW-NE cold FRONT across WRN Great Lakes and MS Valley, and an area of HIGH PRESSURE off the Carolina Coast with ridging WSW into NRN Gulf region. Locally, this was creating moderate east to southeast flow. During today, as above upper systems lift NEWD, front will shift ENE towards MI and serve as focus for today`s severe WX before dissipating on Tues. Closer to home, high shunted further into Atlc with axis and subsequent GRADIENT weakening over CWFA. This will provide generally light SELY then E flow over local region THRU Wed. With onshore flow and higher DEW points, patchy FOG becomes more LIKELY each late night and early morning. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY). TODAY...Latest GFS and especially NAM coming in wet, while local confidence tool largely 30-0 N-S split and local CONVECTION allowing model (CAM) based on HI RES guidance even drier, largely ISOLD POPS which makes forecast a little tricky. Believe that the combination of modest afternoon heating and lingering MOISTURE could lead to a a low chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly closest to above upper support. Several CAM models show strong to possibly isold severe PULSE storms just to our NW and bears watching. As far as POPs, will compromise with 40-0% NW-SE gradient during the afternoon time frame. Highs 75 TO 80. TONIGHT...30-0% NE-SW evening POP gradient. Lows MID 50s north to 60 coast. With gradient weakening from NW-SE increasing chances for fog, especially FL Panhandle. TUESDAY...With ridge beginning to build in, expect a FEW more breaks in the CLOUD cover than today, so temperatures will be a little warmer. NIL pops. Highs mid 70s coast to around 80 north. Lows mid 50s inland to 60 coast. Fog a good bet to develop late. WEDNESDAY...Ridge builds further NWD with rising heights and TEMPS rise a few degrees. Weak seabreeze will cool off coast. Highs from low 70s coast to low 80s inland. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) The latest global model runs are in good agreement in forecasting a significant pattern change later this week. The progressive, split flow pattern we`ve experienced over the past several weeks (featuring shorter amplitude & wave LENGTH, fast-moving systems) will give way to a high amplitude, rather stagnant pattern. By this weekend, the 500 MB HEIGHT field will have a large amplitude ridge over the eastern CONUS and a deep trough over the west. While it`s possible that a few weak upper level short waves could temporarily erode the southeast U.S. ridge Thursday and Friday (giving us a slight chance of RAIN), this possibility becomes less likely next weekend as the ridge grows ever stronger. Without seeing any obvious synoptic systems affecting our region, we will keep the PoP to a minimum through the period. Of course deep layer ridging usually means warm temperatures, and we expect them to be well above CLIMATOLOGY, with highs in the lower to mid 80s (as opposed to average values in the mid 70s). Lows will be in the 50s. The main limitation to how warm it gets will be the winds coming off the cooler shelf waters of the Gulf of Mexico during the afternoons, where water temperatures will be in the mid 60s. Thus highs at the beaches will remain in the lower 70s. The weather for this upcoming week feel more like April, and will be nearly ideal for SPRING BREAKERS. && .MARINE... Predawn buoys shown exercise caution level winds and SEAS and should remain at cautionary levels well offshore into mid morning. The ridge will slowly weaken and move further eastward into the Atlantic later today resulting in gradually diminishing winds. This downward trend will continue into the middle part of the week as the marine area remains on the western edge of the high pressure ridge. && .FIRE WEATHER... The relative HUMIDITY will likely remain too high for red flag conditions this week.