Windy and warm with scattered storms after midday. After going about 2 weeks without any rain, a slow-moving front in Mississippi will ease into our area later today, bringing clouds and isolated storms to a few areas. High will be 82. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 538 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled cold FRONT to the west of the area will begin to push through the area on Friday into Saturday increasing chances of PRECIPITATION. Conditions improve for the latter half of the weekend AS HIGH PRESSURE moves in on the heals of the cold front. && .NEAR TERM (Today)... Upper level RIDGE over the Southeast US for the past FEW days continues to weaken and erode. This is putting our area in a squeeze play between the slowly approaching cold front to the west and a moist southeast FLOW from the east. Much of the dry AIR over the region is now beginning to give way to more moist conditions as a result. An analysis of CURRENT trends and new model guidance would suggest that the stalling cold front to the west will not make it into our western zones in any appreciable way. Further to the east, today`s setup is similar to yesterday and expect that we will again see enhanced activity from the Atlantic sea breeze interaction with the Big Bend sea breeze during the late afternoon. For locations between the western and eastern extremes will see much less coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Nonetheless we expect coverage to be slightly higher than yesterday due to the increase in MOISTURE noted above. Also an issue is the strong southeast FETCH over the coastal waters. This will serve to produce a rip current threat from roughly ST George Island westward. Locations west of Panama City will see high rip current threats due to the increased exposure to southeast winds. Have decided to issue a Rip Current statement as a result. This threat is expected to diminish as the winds subside later this afternoon. .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday)... The stalled frontal system to the west of the area will start to eject out of the southeast US toward the northeast beginning tonight. Much of the forcing is expected to lift north with the parent LOW. However, the associated cold front now just west of the area will take on more of a northeast/southwest orientation and begin to push through the area. This will increase RAIN chances later Friday into Saturday morning. POPS have been increased this forecast cycle to account for the greater certainty association with the frontal passage. .LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT through next Thursday)... The closed upper low will be over the Ohio Valley with the TROUGH axis cutting through our CWA to begin the period. The low and trough will move east and off the MID-Atlantic coast Sunday night with deep layer ridging building in the first part of next week. The upper ridge flattens by Wednesday night with zonal flow for Thursday. At the surface, showers and thunderstorms will be ending from west to east as a cold front pushes through Saturday night. Offshore flow and a drier airmass filter in behind the front Sunday and Monday. As high pressure drops south out of east Canada Tuesday to become centered off the southeast CONUS Wednesday, winds gradually swing around to the southeast and south. The moist onshore flow continues through the remainder of the forecast period with low end CHANCE PoPs on Thursday. MAX temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s each day. Minimum temperatures will be in the lower to mid 60s Saturday night and then drop into the lower to mid 50s across most areas next week. While these temperatures are cooler than what we have seen lately, they are still above seasonal norms. && .AVIATION... We expect some low clouds to develop in the pre-DAWN hours around or just after 09Z. Ceilings will primarily be MVFR, although we did allow for a period of IFR at TLH and VLD. SCATTERED showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and for now went with Prob30 groups for all sites in the 18z-24z time frame. Winds will be southeast to south around 10 knots with higher gusts later this morning and afternoon. && .MARINE... A strong southeast WIND fetch across the waters will keep SEAS elevated through this morning and into the afternoon. Winds are then expected to subside during the later afternoon and seas will follow. A cold front then approaches later Friday into Saturday switching winds around to the west and bringing in a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. The front will then push south on Sunday and conditions will improve for the later half of the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... High dispersions are forecast again this afternoon but minimum relative humidities will be above critical levels. There are no fire weather concerns at least through Saturday.