You are currently browsing the monthly archive for April 2012.
Sunny and unseasonably warm again. Afternoon high near the record of 91 set in 1970. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1013 AM EDT Mon Apr 30 2012 .SYNOPSIS... The primary weather features impacting the region`s weather for the next FEW days will be the upper RIDGE currently parked over the southeastern states and the upper LOW/surface TROUGH across south Florida. The upper ridge will remain in control through Tuesday before the upper trough slowly lifts northwest towards the region by Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM (Today and Tonight)... This mornings upper AIR SOUNDING and observed data are indicating that today will LIKELY see temperatures increase to 1-2 degrees above yesterday`s HIGH temperatures. Forecast has been adjusted some to compensate for this. Tonight, boundary layer MOISTURE just to the east of the CWA is likely to nudge further west tonight. This will increase the chances for FOG and STRATUS for eastern locations in the CWA. .SHORT TERM (Tuesday through Wednesday)... For Tuesday, dry weather will continue. However, expect to see an increase in high clouds AS the influence of the south Florida trough begins to increase. This should keep high temperatures a few degrees below Monday`s highs. There remains considerable uncertainty as to how far north the moisture from the upper trough will make it by Wednesday. At the very least, expect to see an increase in POPS over the coastal waters and adjacent inland areas. will keep PoPs over land at 30 percent or below for this forecast package. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY). The large scale long wave pattern commences with weak troughing over WRN states and relatively amplified ridging over ERN states. a SHORTWAVE trough exists over the Gulf of MEX. SHORT At surface, ridging from Atlc high EWD of GA with axis WWD to across CWA. This yields ESE FLOW and a slowly relaxing GRADIENT. Nearest WX system is low KS with cold FRONT SWD into TX. Latest guidance keeping upper H85-H7 ridge centered over Carolinas and surface high stronger than previous runs. During the rest of period, Ern ridging transitions to a DEEPENING trough over the eastern GOMEX thats lifts NWD across the SE region Thurs THRU Friday nights. However strong Carolina ridge will keep POPS low over NE third of CWA. Trough then shifts offshore to be replaced by UPSTREAM amplifying MID-upper ridge with rising heights and drying thru Mon. At surface, upstream low and cold front drop SEWD dropping high SWD gradually becoming centered N of the Bahamas through the weekend with ridge shunted SW of CWA. However, front remains well NW of local area. Weakening and VEERING winds will allow seabreezes to develop later in the period. So any INSTABILITY/ precip will largely induced by upper level features. Models (especially GFS) do show deep tropical moisture advecting NWD into the our region to commence the period but moisture begins to get suppressed SWD as trough and associated surface front push down from the north. Thus RAIN event (possibly prolonged and locally heavy) should be confined to marine area and coastal FL with more clouds than rain as you move NWD. This reflected in model PWATS. Believe MEX a little too dry. Will go SW-NE mid SCT-WDLY sct POPS Wed night and Thurs, wdly sct-lo sct N-S POPS Thurs night-Fri night, then mainly NIL POP rest of period. With local area in warm sector, both mins/MAX will remain 3-7 degrees above average, with highest TEMPS across NW third of area. clouds may allow for some modification each day. AVG inland MIN/max is 58/84 degrees. && .AVIATION [through 12z Tuesday]... Winds around 5 mph has prevented CIGS/VSBYS from dropping below VFR during the predawn hours. Expect VFR conditions expected everywhere thru around 09z Tues when MVFR CIGs expected to develop at mainly TLH and VLD. && .MARINE... High PRESSURE and a weak gradient will remain in place today over the waters. However, the gradient will begin to tighten tonight as a trough of low pressure across south Florida lifts northwest and high pressure builds off the Carolina coast. Winds and SEAS will REACH cautionary levels and occasionally approach Small Craft ADVISORY criteria from tonight into Wednesday as the trough moves northwest into the central Gulf. Conditions should improve late in the week and into the weekend as high pressure builds back over the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the region. Expect another day of generally dry conditions with relative HUMIDITY values nearing critical thresholds. By Tuesday, a steady moistening trend begins which will end any fire weather concerns. High mixing heights will lead to above average dispersions, especially on Tuesday. Deeper moisture and rain chances will increase Wednesday thru Friday precluding any red flag concerns.
Sunny and warm with a high of at least 86. Some areas will likely see 90 degrees. Ninties will be widespread over the weekend. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 405 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2012 .SYNOPSIS... The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed a "plateau" of HIGH PRESSURE across much of the FL peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico. There was a cold FRONT from the Red River Valley, through TN, into western VA. Recent vapor imagery and upper AIR data showed MEAN longwave troughs over the eastern and western CONUS, with a RIDGE over the Central Plains. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) The latest global models continue to forecast a warm and tranquil weather pattern for our region this weekend AS the upper level WESTERLIES retreat northward away from the area. The aforementioned front to our north will stall across north GA and AL this afternoon, and the latest CONVECTION Allowing Model runs do not forecast any storms associated with this feature to make it into our forecast area this evening. The front will lift north as a warm front Saturday as deep layer ridging develops over the Southeast, then shift south back to the Tennessee Valley Sunday and Monday. Although we will get onshore boundary layer winds through the weekend, the sea breezes will LIKELY be too diffuse (and the TROPOSPHERE too dry and STABLE) to trigger any deep moist convection. With mostly SUNNY skies and no RAIN, temperatures will be above average. Based on recent forecast verification, our forecast package will be slightly warmer than the GFS MOS (which is warmer than the NAM MOS), and we expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through this weekend. Cooler water temperatures will keep highs in the MID 70s to around 80 degrees at the beaches. .LONG TERM... (Sunday NIGHT through next Friday) An upper ridge will be over the region to start the period. The ridge is now forecast to gradually weaken by Wednesday with a LOW and associated TROUGH developing over the Florida peninsula. The low slowly deepens while lifting northward into south Georgia Thursday and then into South Carolina on Friday. The GFS shows a surface low developing near Tampa Wednesday night and tracking it slowly to the north into our coastal waters Thursday into Friday. A SURGE of deep layer MOISTURE is also pulled northward with this system with showers and thunderstorms overspreading the local area from southeast to northwest Wednesday night through Thursday and lingering into Friday. This solution is vastly different from the previous runs and would like some run to run consistency before buying into it. For now will just show increasing CLOUD cover starting mid week and CAP POPS off at 20-30% Thursday-Friday. TEMPS will be at or above seasonal levels each day. && .AVIATION... IFR CIGS/VSBYS are developing as expected across the Tri-State region early this morning. VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites shortly after SUNRISE with winds becoming south to southwest around 10 knots later this morning and afternoon. && .MARINE... With a rather flat pressure pattern in place, winds and SEAS will remain below caution levels through the weekend. They will be a bit higher near the coast during the afternoon and evening hours, as daytime heating helps accelerate the winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns for today. For Saturday and Sunday minimum relative humidities are expected to drop below 35 % across inland portions of north Florida but winds and dispersions should not REACH critical levels. Thus, no fire weather concerns at least through the weekend.
The exact number of people who died in Alabama is listed differently depending on where you look. No matter the exact number (you can see them on this NOAA list of tornado deaths), as we mark the 1 year anniversary of that deadly day in Alabama and neighboring states we should reflect on the event and make sure preparation isn’t something we just talking about. preparation means doing and not just saying. Talking about it, writing down a plan, having the essential items, and identifying your “safe places” are all part of the process. We have had a quiet and sunny stretch of weather, which is actually the perfect time to make a check of your preparedness… before the next severe weather event. After all, this is still National Severe Weather Preparedness Week.
While I wasn’t there in Tuscaloosa to witness what happened, I did visit the tornado damage path 6 months ago and put a video (Tuscaloosa Rebuilds After Tornado) together to commemorate the rebuilding process. Simple yet powerful images that show not only man but mother nature getting things back in order with a pounding hammer and tiny leaves growing on stripped trees. A lot will be said about the events, especially on April 27th, but the most important thing you can take away from it all is how do we all do better next time to stay safe.
Sunny with a high of 86… and higher highs through the weekend. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 331 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2012 .SYNOPSIS... The 04 UTC regional surface analysis showed a RIDGE across south FL and the southeast Gulf of Mexico, providing southwest winds across our forecast area. Recent vapor imagery and upper AIR data showed gradually rising 500 MB heights over the Southeast, but the main ridge axis was still near the FRONT RANGE of the Rockies. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) The latest global models forecast the upper level WESTERLIES to retreat northward through this weekend AS deep layer ridging develops over the Southeast. This pattern will LIKELY keep any fronts or upper level disturbances too far away from our region for any significant RAIN chances. The 00 UTC NCEP ARW & NMM models forecast ISOLATED storms just north of our forecast area (in central GA) late Friday afternoon, ahead of a weak (and stalling backdoor cold front). If this trend continues we could add slight rain chances to northern portions of our forecast area for Friday. Otherwise, the deep layer ridging (and corresponding LOW CLOUD amounts and rain chances) and increasingly more direct sun will result in above-average temperatures, with highs in the MID to upper 80s today and Friday, upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler during the day at the coast, where water temperatures were still around 70 degrees. Lows will generally be in the 50s. .LONG TERM... (Saturday NIGHT through next Thursday) Weak upper ridging builds over the GOMEX and Southeastern U.S. through the extended period. At the surface, HIGH PRESSURE centered over the northeast Gulf Sunday and Monday will weaken as a stronger ridge builds in from the northeast. As a result, a backdoor cold front pushes through the Carolina`s and eastern Georgia with the front possibly stalling just to the northeast of our CWA by 12z Tuesday. This boundary may linger in the area through Wednesday before washing out. Despite the proximity of the front, the lack of deep layer MOISTURE and a building upper ridge will hinder convective development. Will continue to keep POPS silent at 10%. Temperatures will be above seasonal levels. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF cycle with only a SCATTERING of low level clouds and CIRRUS. Expect BREEZY south to southwest winds once again today with gusts up to 20 knots at most sites in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Despite a rather weak pressure GRADIENT, winds and SEAS will continue to get a boost during the afternoon and evening hours with the daytime heating and sea breeze enhancement. Despite these locally stronger winds, conditions are expected to remain below caution levels through this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Minimum relative HUMIDITY values are expected to be at or just above 35% over a very small portion of the interior Big Bend this afternoon. So despite all other factors in place which include high dispersions, high ERC`s and possible sustained winds of 15 mph or higher, we do not expect Red Flag criteria to be MET. Increasing low level moisture will negate any fire weather concerns for the next several days.
With nothing but sunshine, our afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 80s for the first time in quite awhile today. And we’ll be pushing near record highs for this time of year by the end of the week. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 344 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2012 .SYNOPSIS... The 04 UTC regional surface analysis showed a 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER over the central Gulf of Mexico, providing west to southwest boundary layer FLOW to our forecast area. Vapor imagery and upper AIR data showed the anomalously deep eastern U.S. TROUGH (responsible for our recent "chilly" temperatures) slowly lifting out to the northeast off the MID Atlantic coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Deep layer ridging will slowly develop over the Southeast through Friday, though 500 mb heights will not be particularly high. Although we may see a slight increase in clouds (AS opposed to their virtually complete absence today) Thursday and Friday, there does not appear to be enough deep layer MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, and/or synoptic scale lift for RAIN in our forecast area. The NAM (and NAM MOS) does show a small CHANCE for rain (20- 30 percent POP) over the FL Panhandle on Friday, but this solution is an outlier and it`s not clear what is generating this rain within the model. With the gradually rising heights and ample late SPRING sunshine, temperatures will bounce back to about average this afternoon, with highs in the mid 80s inland (lower-mid 70s coast). Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s Thursday and Friday. After one more relatively "cool" morning today, lows will be in the 50s for the remainder of this work week. .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) The mid-upper level flow will be nearly zonal to start the period with a RIDGE building Sunday through early next week. At the surface, a weak pressure pattern will be in place with a ridge axis extending from the western Atlantic across the Gulf and Gulf coastal states. The building ridge along with onshore LOW level flow will ensure a continual warming trend with minimal chances for rain. Temperatures will be around or just above the 90 degree mark at most inland locations beginning Saturday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are anticipated at all terminals through the forecast period. Southwest winds of around 12 knots with higher gusts this afternoon. && .MARINE... Although the pressure GRADIENT will not be nearly as tight as what we observed the past FEW days, winds will remain near 15 knots through Thursday, especially near the coast, as daytime heating helps enhance the onshore winds in the late afternoon and evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... A marginal situation for Red Flag conditions today across a small portion of north Florida. Minimum relative humidities are expected to drop below 35% for 3 to 4 hours mainly for our inland Big Bend zones including Calhoun and Jackson counties in the Panhandle. Sustained winds across these areas are forecast be just under 15 mph. For these marginal situations we will lean toward not issuing Red Flag Warnings. The Fire Weather WATCH that was in place has been dropped. No fire weather concerns for Thursday or the remainder of the week as low level moisture gradually increases.
After a chilly start, sunshine will help us warm into the mid 70s. It will still be breezy at times, but early morning Wednesday will be in around 50 degrees. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2012 .AVIATION UPDATE... Forecast reasoning described below has not changed with the 12z SET of TAFs. Therefore, the discussion below remains unchanged. && .SYNOPSIS...We continue to see a highly amplified long wave pattern across North America this morning. A TROUGH extends from eastern Canada southward to the Northwest Caribbean Sea with the axis now east of the forecast area. Another trough is found off the Pacific Coast. In between the two troughs, we find a massive RIDGE over the Rockies that dominates much of the western U.S. Surface analysis shows the cold FRONT that slipped south of the area last NIGHT now dissipating over the northern Bahamas and western Cuba. HIGH PRESSURE is centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The pressure GRADIENT between this high and LOW pressure currently occluding near Lake Ontario remains sufficiently tight to maintain a light 3-6 KT WIND across the region with marginal SCA conditions over the Gulf. Satellite shows clear skies across the entire southeastern U.S. Temperatures are falling steadily through the 40s with DEW points generally in the MID 30s. The light winds should keep TEMPS from falling below the upper 30s across most inland areas. In many cases, SUNRISE temperatures will be the coldest we have observed since March 5th. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... The long wave pattern will deamplify across the U.S. during this period. The eastern trough will lift northeast allowing the some of the UPSTREAM ridging to work eastward. 500-MB heights over TLH will rise from about 561 dm this morning to about 583 dm by Thursday afternoon. The surface high to our west will build east across the Gulf of Mexico to the FL Peninsula by Wednesday morning and then east of the state for the remainder of the week. This will switch our low level winds around to the southwest by late this afternoon and these winds will persist into the weekend. The rising heights and onshore low level FLOW will help to quickly moderate temperatures after this morning`s chilly start. Highs today will remain well below NORMAL (by about 6-8 degrees); however, they will be several degrees milder than yesterday, especially across our northern zones. There will also be less wind around today. We are forecasting some gusts up around 20 mph this afternoon, but this will not be enough to justified another wind ADVISORY. MIN temps overnight will be some 10 degrees milder than this morning and by wednesday afternoon, temps will be above normal once again with most inland areas reaching the lower to mid 80s. Min temps Wednesday night will once again exceed the previous night by some 8-10 degrees. This will set up a very warm day on Thursday when most inland areas will REACH the mid to upper 80s. Even the beach communities should recover to near 80 degrees on Thursday. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)... The extended forecast for our local area will be dominated by fairly weak, zonal flow aloft. 500mb heights are generally forecast to stay above 5820m with less than 20m of deviation through the entire period. With a weaker subtropical JET and the northern branch of the jet stream staying across the northern half of the CONUS, the forecast of slightly above-normal temperatures was maintained. The warmest days look to be Friday and Saturday with 850mb temperatures +15 to +17C. The should also be prior to the arrival of some deeper MOISTURE and potentially a weak front. Highs on those two days are forecast to be in the 88-91 degree RANGE away from the Gulf. A combination of several factors may act to bring some slight RAIN chances to the forecast starting late Saturday and lasting into Tuesday: (1) large, dry low-level ANTICYCLONE currently over the NE Gulf of Mexico will erode east into the central Atlantic. This should set up broad SE flow across much of the Gulf and Caribbean, and draw deeper moisture currently bottled up near the Lower Bahamas and Hispaniola back to our area. -AND- (2) a digging SHORTWAVE from the Great Lakes into the East Coast should push a weak cold front close to our area, which could provide additional forcing for increased CLOUD cover and showers or thunderstorms. && .MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... Sustained winds over the marine area are at the low end of small craft advisory criteria and SEAS at the offshore buoys have slipped just below 7 FT. AS high pressure builds east across the Gulf of Mexico and low pressure over the northeastern states moves further away, the gradient will weaken across the marine area and conditions are forecast to drop below advisory criteria shortly. We will cancel the advisory expire and replace it with an exercise caution headline. Even this headline will no longer be necessary by around sunrise. As the high passes south and then east of the area, winds will back to the west this afternoon and tonight with southwest winds expected from Wednesday into Friday. By the weekend, the ridge axis will lift north a bit allowing winds to back to the south and southeast. Wind speeds will be enhanced each afternoon near the coast in the sea breeze. && .AVIATION (THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. The nearest cloud cover is in N AL and TN, and the ATMOSPHERE in our local area should stay very dry over the next 24 hours. Therefore, the focus was on trends in wind direction and speed. Individual lines in the TAFs don`t necessarily indicate a major change in flight category, but rather the development of gusty winds during the daytime hours, subsiding around 23-00z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Based on the updated morning forecast, there will be many spots in our Florida and Alabama zones close to marginal red flag conditions. A Red Flag WARNING was inherited for Leon and Wakulla Counties based on forecast ERC of 37 combined with 4-HR RH below 35%. This RF.W was expanded to cover all of our Florida zones based on coordination with WFOs MOB, JAX, and TBW. Most statistical guidance indicates at least one hour of 13kt (15mph) winds at the available guidance locations during the afternoon. This lines up well with our forecast GRIDS. Additionally, DISPERSION values are forecast to be very close to 75 (highest values near AL-FL and GA-FL border region and along Suwannee River). Despite the marginal nature of the red flag conditions, several other considerations increased confidence: (1) we are at the tail end of a series of dry, WINDY days and fine fuels have lost a lot of moisture. WFAS forecast 10-hr fuel moisture is around 7-8% over most of the area - similar to what was observed yesterday. -AND- (2) we are expecting a fairly long duration below 30% RH (at least 6 hours). A RF.W was also issued for our SE Alabama zones based on 4-5 hour durations of RH at or below 25%. Minimum RH values are very close to 25%, so this is a more marginal situation. For our Georgia zones, forecast fuel moistures from USFS don`t dip below 7%, so this does not meet new RF.W criteria.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 440 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2012 ...BREEZY and Cooler Today with a Chilly NIGHT Coming Tonight... .SYNOPSIS...A highly amplified pattern exists across N. America this morning. A large RIDGE dominates the west with a DOWNSTREAM TROUGH over the eastern U.S. Lowest heights in the trough are centered over the Southern Appalachians. Surface analysis shows LOW PRESSURE moving north up the MID Atlantic coast toward NYC. A cold FRONT has pushed south of the local area and runs westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. HIGH pressure is centered over the Great Plains. A tight pressure GRADIENT exists across much of the eastern U.S. between the east coast low and plains high. This gradient brought a WINDY day to the region on Sunday with many areas gusting over 35 mph. This gradient is maintaining sustained 5-10 KT winds during these overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... Short wave energy diving south on the west side of the upper trough was helping to force a FEW sprinkles of light RAIN earlier in the evening over central and northern AL. However, these have dissipated AS have most of the clouds. This leaves the forecast area under generally clear skies this morning. The trough will REACH its maximum AMPLITUDE this afternoon into this evening before it begins to gradually lift away to the northeast from tonight into Wednesday. The surface high will drop south across the Southern Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico this evening and then remain centered over the western Gulf into Tuesday. Thereafter, the high will ridge eastward to FL by Wednesday morning and the northern Bahamas by 00Z Thursday. This weather pattern will maintain FAIR conditions across the region for the next several days. It will start out on the chilly side today and tonight. 850-MB TEMPS will be down around +2 C today. High temps will fail to reach 70 today north of I-10 with the northern tier of counties peaking in the mid 60s. This should prove to be the coolest afternoon we have observed since March 4th. While we may not see WIND gusts quite as high as yesterday, we still anticipate frequent gusts over 25 mph (per the latest BUFKIT data) and another wind ADVISORY will be issued. The NW FLOW is sufficiently onshore along the coast of the ST. Joseph Peninsula (in Gulf County) that there will remain a moderate risk for rip currents along that part of the coast. Lows tonight will drop below 40 for the first time since March 5th. With the winds staying up a bit, we did not buy into the cold MET numbers which actually showed a few spots in the Suwannee Valley reaching freezing. We will show most inland areas dropping into the upper 30s with mid 30s in the normally coldest spots. Coastal areas will see mid 40s. Because temps will be marginal and we expect the wind to be maintain at a few knots overnight, FROST is not being included in the forecast at this time. As the upper trough lifts away and the surface ridge slides south of the area, a moderating trend in temps will commence on Tuesday. While it will remain cooler than NORMAL, temps will rise several degrees higher than today with most areas seeing lower to mid 70s. Coolest temps Tuesday night will be in the mid 40s over the Suwannee Valley with most areas in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs on Wednesday afternoon will be back to normal if not a degree or two above. Look for lower to mid 80s away from the coast. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)... The flow pattern will be evolving from a highly amplified one in the short term period (discussed above) to a more zonal pattern in the extended RANGE with a more ACTIVE northern JET stream. Therefore, dry weather with a warming trend is the main story beyond Wednesday. From Wednesday afternoon to Friday afternoon, GFS forecast 500mb heights rise from about 5770m to 5850m, or a +80 meter trend over a span of just 48 hours. The building ridge and increasing low-level WAA should contribute to a return to above normal temperatures. ECMWF MOS and MEX MOS show highs in the upper 80s to around 90 returning as early as Friday and lasting into the weekend ahead of an approaching front. HPC Guidance also indicated some low 90s this weekend, above MOS trends for the past several runs. This certainly seems within the realm of possibility, so highs for Friday-Saturday were boosted to 87-90F for now. The GFS and GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN both indicate the approach of a front from the northwest later on Sunday, while the ECMWF lags the front into early next week. With almost no mid-upper level HEIGHT falls this far south and the zonal flow pattern persisting, it may be difficult to get the cold front this far south. To account for the scenario projected by the GFS, some POPS were included Sunday into Monday with slightly cooler temperatures. However, given uncertainty and some weight given to the ECMWF, PoPs were capped in the slight CHANCE range and high temperatures were kept in the mid-upper 80s. && .MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... After peaking around 10 FT at the offshore buoys, SEAS have begun to settle a bit and are now around 8 ft at the buoys. Winds will remain elevated this morning and then slacken a bit this afternoon. Wind speeds are forecast to return to around 20 kt overnight. We therefore extended the SCA until 09Z Tuesday. As high pressure builds west and then south of the area, winds will shift to the west and drop below headline criteria. Wind speeds will be enhanced over the nearshore legs due to the sea breeze each afternoon from Tuesday through Friday. && .AVIATION (THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)... The main focus for this TAF cycle was on wind direction and speed. Although there are a few patches of mid-level clouds currently over TN/N AL, these are not expected to influence the local area much. Most varieties of statistical guidance show strong northwest winds 14-01z with GUST potential to 25-30kt at all terminals. VFR will prevail otherwise. && .FIRE WEATHER... With a dry AIR mass firmly entrenched across the Southeast region, there should be active fire weather concerns for the next several days. For today, minimum RH is generally forecast to be 25-30% across the entire forecast area - which puts us within reach of Florida red flag criteria, but not Alabama or Georgia. A Red Flag WARNING for today was already inherited for all of our Florida zones, and this was maintained. The only change was to tack an hour on to the warning at the beginning and end to account for a longer duration of RH below 35%. It looks like all the Florida red flag criteria may be met today, including high dispersions, winds of at least 15 mph, and at least a few zones should hit ERC of 35. For Tuesday, minimum RH is forecast to be lower (20-25% areawide). We have opted to issue a Fire Weather WATCH for all of our Florida zones given the very low RH, high forecast dispersions, winds approaching 15 mph, and another day of drying fuels. Alabama criteria requires either 4hr duration of <25% RH (not LIKELY) or 20 mph winds with low RH (also not expected). Meanwhile, some of our Georgia zones may be able to hit 15 mph winds with RH at or below 25%. It is uncertain whether or not the fuel MOISTURE component will be met in GA though, so no watch was issued there. However, WFAS forecast 10-HR fuel moisture for Monday shows considerable drying with some areas of 7-8% showing up in SW GA (criteria is 6%). Therefore, it is possible a RFW will be needed eventually.
WWUS72 KTAE 230709
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
309 AM EDT MON APR 23 2012
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON- COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE… TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE… SWEETWATER…CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY… FREEPORT…SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…
PORT SAINT JOE…APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…
SAINT MARKS…KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…SUWANNEE…
GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON… MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…
SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER…ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA… DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM… MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS…NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…
BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE…QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND 309 AM EDT MON APR 23 2012 /209 AM CDT MON APR 23 2012/
Wind Advisory in Effect From 1 PM EDT /noon Cdt/ This
Afternoon to 7 PM EDT /6 PM Cdt/ This Evening…
the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a wind advisory.
* timing, this afternoon.
* winds, sustained around 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph.
* impacts, a few weakened tree limbs may fall. high profile
vehicles may be difficult to steer at times. boaters on the larger area lakes such as lakes talquin and seminole will
encounter hazardous conditions.
a wind advisory means that sustained winds or frequent gusts of 26 to 39 mph are expected. winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. use extra
WWUS72 KTAE 220733
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
333 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-SEMINOLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…PORT SAINT JOE…
GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON… MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…
333 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012 /233 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2012/
Wind Advisory in Effect From 10 AM EDT /9 AM Cdt/ This Morning To 8 PM EDT /7 PM Cdt/ This Evening…
the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a wind advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM EDT /9 AM cdt/ this
morning to 8 PM EDT /7 PM cdt/ this evening.
* timing, gusty winds will develop by mid morning and last
through the afternoon.
* winds, frequent gusts of 30 to 40 mph.
* impacts, a few weakened tree limbs may be blown down. a few shallow rooted trees in areas that received heavy rainfall
yesterday may also be blown down, aided by wet soils. high
profile vehicles may be difficult to steer at times.
a wind advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. use extra caution.
Windy and mild with a high of 75. Clear and breezy overnight with a Friday morning low of 45. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 400 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2012 .SYNOPSIS and Short Term (Rest of tonight through Saturday)... The SFC Cold FRONT continues to push southward through the CWA into the Coastal Waters tonight, with cooler and drier AIR filtering in from the north. Skies are generally partly CLOUDY, and dewpoints continue to FALL from the 40s to the 30s from south to north. Therefore, overnight LOW TEMPS will be highly dependent on boundary layer decoupling, with lows expected to drop into the 40s where winds become light or near CALM. Over the Coastal Waters, still expect the NE SURGE to stay at around 15 KTS or less, so no headlines should be needed for the near future. For today, HIGH Temps should be a bit cooler than on Wed. AFTN, with a north-south GRADIENT ranging from the lower to MID 70s to around 80 over the SE FL Big Bend. After another fairly cool and dry NIGHT tonight, the projected gradual warmup should begin on Friday and continue through the weekend, with temps once again rising to above NORMAL levels, with some middle 80s possible by Saturday Afternoon. Also, by later on Friday and Saturday, AS Sfc and Transport winds shift to the NE to ENE, we will have to keep a close EYE on the very large WILDFIRE to our east. Although it highly unlikely for the fire to spread eastward or "spot" into our CWA, the transport of SMOKE could once again become a significant problem and will need to be monitored. && .Long Term (Saturday night through next Thursday)...Deep layer ridging remains in place through Monday then slides east as the next TROUGH and associated cold front approaches and pushes into our area Tuesday through Wednesday. The front will be weakening but should still bring SCATTERED showers and thunderstorms to our region both Tuesday and Wednesday. Then, a slight CHANCE of a FEW lingering showers Thursday morning mainly over the eastern sections with drier air filtering in across our western zones. Temperatures will be above seasonal levels through the period. && .AVIATION...VFR under clear skies are expected throughout the TAF cycle. Winds will shift to the north north-northeast today. Therefore smoke from the County Line fire in Baker County should not be an issue at any of our TAF sites. && .MARINE...Winds and SEAS will get a slight bump overnight into this morning due a light to moderate northeasterly surge, but should still remain below cautionary levels. Then, after a lull through Friday, a rather extended period of cautionary to near Small Craft ADVISORY levels will begin later on Friday Night and may last through much of the weekend as the PRESSURE gradient tightens across the Marine Area. && .FIRE WEATHER...DISPERSION values are forecast to be above 75 over a large area of northwest Florida this afternoon coincident with relative HUMIDITY values below 35 percent. ERC values are also high, so a Red Flag WARNING is in effect for all of the Florida Panhandle and Big bend today. Elsewhere, long durations of low relative humidity below 25 percent are expected across southeast Alabama today, so a Red Flag Warning is in effect for there as well. Although the airmass will be just as dry across southwest Georgia, fuel MOISTURE and winds not not meet Red Flag criteria. For Friday the combination of long durations of low relative humidity along with high ERC values may result in Red Flag conditions across a large portion of interior north Florida.
Sunny and very breezy with a high of 76. Much cooler overnight with Thursday morning lows in the mid 40s! Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 340 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2012 .SYNOPSIS and Short Term (Rest of Tonight through Friday)... Except for areas well off to our west (over parts of LA and MS), a dry Cold FRONT continues to push steadily southeastward towards our CWA overnight. It is accompanied by SCT-BKN VFR level clouds, with a bonified shot of much cooler and drier AIR advecting in behind it. This front should be on our doorstep (in Tallahassee) close to SUNRISE, with cool and dry air ADVECTION dominating the CWA for the rest of the day on Wed. With this in mind, HIGH TEMPS will be hard pressed to get out of the MID 70s North, to around 80 to the South. This should SET the STAGE for a mostly clear and quite cool NIGHT across the region, but final LOW Temps on Thursday morning will be tricky, and highly dependent on how much the SFC winds diminish before sunrise. For Thursday, we may see our coolest Highs in quite some time in this unusually warm SPRING, AS temps will really struggle to climb into the 70s across the entire CWA. With light winds more LIKELY on Thu. Night, we could see temps a FEW degrees cooler in the 40s than Wed. Night, although there are some fairly large differences between the cooler MET and warmer MAV guidance. Will plan on an adjusted blend for now (including Gridded MOS), and hope the guidance comes into better agreement before long. By Friday, with the Sfc RIDGE moving offshore, and Upper Level Ridging beginning to develop off to our west, we should begin a slow warming trend, which will be enhanced significantly over the upcoming weekend as the Upper Ridge Builds in overhead and continues to strengthen. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday through next Wednesday)... An upper level ridge will build into the region over the weekend and then move east Monday through Wednesday as a TROUGH moves east across the CONUS. Surface high PRESSURE will move off the mid Atlantic coast Friday night and slowly drop to the southeast over the weekend and early next week. The high will then push off to the east by midweek allowing a cold front to advance into our area late Tuesday into Wednesday. The extended period will be dry until either late Tuesday or Wednesday associated with the cold front. Temperatures will be near or above seasonal levels through the period. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue to prevail throughout the forecast period. A cold front will pass through the region around or just after daybreak with winds shifting to north-northeast and gusty at times during day. && .MARINE...As the Sfc Cold Front gradually moves through the Coastal Waters today winds should remain generally around 10 knots with a northerly component. While we are still expecting a northeasterly WIND SURGE tonight into Thursday, it now appears that winds should peak around the 15 KNOT RANGE, or just below cautionary levels. Also, although another easterly surge is expected for Thursday night into Friday, this one should be even weaker, generally in the 10 to 15 knot range. However, once the Surface Ridge of High Pressure to our north moves offshore over the weekend, the tightening pressure GRADIENT will likely be strong enough to support at least cautionary if not Small Craft ADVISORY Levels at that time. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dispersions are forecast to be above 75 across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon. This combined with relative HUMIDITY values below 35 percent and ERC values above 20 will lead to Red Flag conditions today. It will be just as dry across our southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia counties but Red Flag criteria is not expected to be met. Red Flag criteria may be met Thursday across southeast Alabama and north Florida and a WATCH will be in effect.
Sunny and mild with a high of 82. Keep your eyes open for unattended grass fires and let the authorities know if you see one. Here’s the NWS discussion for the rest of the week:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 535 AM EDT Tue Apr 10 2012 Updated Aviation Discussion for 12 UTC Cycle. .SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...Already amplified upper pattern is forecast to amplify further through Thursday AS the TROUGH over the eastern CONUS sharpens and digs into the deep south. The digging trough will push a cold FRONT across the region on Wednesday, which will usher in significantly cooler airmass for the end of the week. The front is expected to be MOISTURE starved with little CHANCE of precip. Ahead of the front Today, temperatures will be mild with highs in the lower to MID 80s. Temperatures will drop back a degree or two for Wednesday as the front moves through. By Thursday, HIGH temperatures are expected to remain in the lower to mid 70s across the region, roughly 10 degrees lower than the expected highs for today. This will follow lows in the lower to mid 40s (and possibly FEW upper 30s in SE Alabama) Thursday morning. .LONG TERM (Friday through next Tuesday)...After the next sharpening Upper Level TROF passes through the SE U.S. (with a dry Cold Front) on Wednesday NIGHT and Thursday morning, an unseasonably cool RIDGE of High PRESSURE will Build into the region from the northwest. While the Bulk of the cool AIR will impact our area before the extended period begins, Thursday Night and Friday should still be below NORMAL (with lows in the 40s on Thursday Night and highs approaching the Upper 70s on Friday. Thereafter, the SFC Ridge is expected to move offshore over the weekend and early next week giving us return FLOW, while at the SAME time Upper Level Ridging will be building in over the area. This should give us a net result of a return back to our seemingly "usual" above normal TEMPS, with Highs surging once again into the Mid 80s by the end of the weekend and early next week. The one limiting factor this occasion may be the return flow off the Gulf, which may be strong enough at lower levels to keep MAX TS from reaching the Upper 80s or Lower 90s which we saw earlier in the month of April. Finally, this should be a dry FCST, with some potential for RAINFALL beyond the time frame of this CURRENT fcst cycle. && .Aviation...Despite a persistent 3-4 degree TEMP/Dewpoint Spread throughout the night and a recent influx of SCT-BKN CIRRUS during the past few hours...the VLD terminal has nonetheless dropped to MVFR levels with tempo IFR VIS restrictions after 0630 UTC overnight. Perhaps their proximity to the WILDFIRE to the east is creating these restrictions which should lift or burn off by 14 UTC. Elsewhere...VFR conditions (with just some more cirrus) continue unabated...and should do so for the remainder of today and much of tonight. Despite not being fcst by any of the usually reliable HI-Res Guidance...VLD could prove challenging once again for Tues. night. Therefore...may add a 5SM Vis group from 08 to 12 UTC until a better handle on the situation can be made. && .MARINE...High pressure in place over the waters today will keep winds and SEAS minimal. A cold front will cross the waters on Wednesday with relatively strong high pressure building in its WAKE. This will push winds to, at least, cautionary levels Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds will diminish by late Thursday and become easterly into the weekend as high pressure settles north of the region. && .FIRE WEATHER...With the current GRIDS coming in a bit drier than earlier fcst, we now have 4+ HRS of Sub-25 percent RH across SE AL this afternoon. Therefore, will hoist a Red Flag WARNING, and keep the current Warning for Leon County FL, for several hours below 35 percent RH combined with a fcst ERC of 35. Although much of SW and SC GA will also be below 25 percent RH for 4+ hours today, fcst fuel moistures are above 6%, so no hazard will be necessary at this time. On Wednesday, conditions will not be quite as dry, but with fcst Dispersions now expected to be 75 or higher, coincident with several hours of below 35 percent RH, will plan on a fairly large Fire Weather WATCH for much of the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle.
Sunny and mild with a high of 82. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 346 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2012 .SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)... The upper level pattern across the U.S. is beginning its transition to a much more amplified pattern. Currently, much of the western part of the country is dominated by ridging, with the exception being the Pacific Northwest, where a large upper LOW is is spinning along the eastern Pacific coastline. Across the eastern part of the country, a broad TROUGH is beginning to amplify AS an upper-level PV ANOMALY dives out of Canada, south across the Midwest. At the base of this trough exists a weak SHORTWAVE that will act to push a corresponding weak FRONT across the local area this afternoon. Weak upper level support, bolstered by rather dry conditions near the surface will severely limit any CHANCE for showers this afternoon. For that reason, will carry only 10% POP`s across portions of north Florida today since a stray, quick hitting SHOWER cannot be completely ruled out. Before the parent east coast trough amplifies enough to affect the local area, we will remain dry with highs in the lower to middle 80s both today and tomorrow. Overnight lows are forecast to FALL into the lower to middle 50s (inland) each evening. By Wednesday, the trough will have amplified enough to force a slightly stronger front across the region. Again, not much RAIN is forecast with this passage. In fact, the CURRENT forecast only carries meaningful PoP`s across the north eastern Gulf of Mexico and does not include any land areas. The main effect this front will have on our area will be to lower temperatures for the remainder of the week. Highs on Wednesday will RANGE from the lower 70s across Alabama and Georgia, to middle and upper 70s across north Florida. .LONG TERM (Wednesday NIGHT through next Monday)... Guidance is in rather good agreement with the large scale pattern during the extended period. The period begins with an amplified pattern across the CONUS, consisting of deep troughs along each coast and a RIDGE over the CENTER of the country. The the end of the week and into the week, the overall pattern remains amplified but shifts to the east, with the ridge ending up centered over the southeastern states. For the local forecast area, the end of the work week will be characterized by northwest FLOW aloft and slightly below NORMAL (yes, below normal) temperatures, as cool HIGH PRESSURE slides in behind a Wednesday night dry frontal passage. Morning temperatures may drop into the lower 40s for Thursday and Friday. By the weekend, the building ridge will begin to assert itself, with temperatures rising back to near normal and then above normal levels by next Monday. The combination of dry northwest flow, followed by a building ridge, will not be conducive for any significant precip through the period. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast period as a weak cold front pushes across the region. The northwest to west winds will keep SMOKE from the northeast Florida fire well to the south and east. && .MARINE... With all surface pressure centers located across the northern half of the country, our local waters reside in an area of relatively high pressure with CALM winds and SEAS. An almost un-noticeable surface front will enter our coastal waters later tonight, with winds and seas remaining well below headline criteria. On Wednesday, another weak front is forecast to REACH the northern Gulf of Mexico, bringing with it the possibility of cautionary winds through Thursday morning as high pressure builds in behind the front. Calm winds and seas return on Thursday with the next chance for headline conditions forecast for next weekend in NOCTURNAL easterly WIND surges. && .FIRE WEATHER... Despite the low relative HUMIDITY values and very deep mixed- layers expected this afternoon, forecast transport winds are forecast to be very low (on the order of 5 knots). This keeps DISPERSION values in the 40s and 50s this afternoon. In addition, forecast ERC values are in the 20s to lower 30s. With these expected conditions not meeting Red Flag criteria for Florida, will drop the current Red Flag WARNING with the morning issuance. Similar conditions are expected for Tuesday with deep mixing layers, but low transport winds. Therefore, no headlines are needed at the moment.
Sunny and breezy with a high of 76. A little cooler overnight with a low of 48 for Saturday morning. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 623 AM EDT Fri Apr 6 2012 Updated for 12z aviation discussion. ...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ON TAP THRU THE WEEKEND... The last weakening line of showers associated with the cold FRONT was moving ESE across the coastal counties during the overnight hours before exiting east of I-75 soon after SUNRISE. AT UPPER LEVELS... The large scale amplified blocking longwave pattern persists. This is highlighted by ridging over CNTRL CONUS anchored by deep troughing over Great BASIN and split troughing over ERN states with a 550dm LOW and H5/H2 vort MAX across Cntrl GA overnight. The WRN TROUGH will move EWD to REACH NRN HIGH Plains today. In response, DOWNSTREAM RIDGE shunted ewd to Wrn Great Lakes and Wrn most Gulf while the Ern branches of Ern trough phase into a pronounced long wave trough. Assocd SHORTWAVE dives around the base of trough which pushes it into the Wrn Atlc, while low opens up into a wave along backside of this trough over SE GA coast, both this morning. In its WAKE. WNW steering FLOW and gradually rising heights will dominate local area next FEW days, but because Ern trough is moving fairly rapidly, impact of shortwave on driving cold AIR into CWA will be limited. By Sun, formerly Wrn trough becomes negatively tilted with axis from Nrn Plains to Upper Great Lakes, downstream ridge shifts ewd to dominate Ern states. AT LOWER LEVELS... During the predawn hours, low located across SE SC with trailing cold front/low level trough SWD across FL Big Bend AS marked by showers noted above. This is clearly delineated by by regional OBS which show TEMPS/DEW points low 70s/MID 60s along and ahead of front, dropping to mid 50s/upper 40s across Wrn AL. As above vort/shortwave continue to move SEWD, low moves off SE SC/NE GA Coast dragging cold front S/E of CWA by sunrise. A second low level trough will swing swd thru area later today and this will bring a brief increase in clouds maybe a sprinkle or two but mainly a marked increase in offshore winds and gusts near this boundary. In the wake of the front, high PRESSURE will build SSE from upper MS River Valley to across entire SE region by SAT. As a result, much cooler and drier air will advect in from the NW beginning later today and this will dominate local weather thru the upcoming weekend. Another, weak reinforcing front will move SE through the region Sunday afternoon and evening. Expect temperatures next few days to finally settle to more typical springtime levels. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... A slight CHANCE of lingering showers across SE most Big Bend and adjacent waters initial hours of today. Otherwise, no POPS thru weekend. TODAY...Some brief FOG possible near departing showers early. The strong GRADIENT between the departing low and building UPSTREAM high will produce occasional BREEZY and gusty conditions. Highs low 70s SE AL/SW GA to 80 SE Big Bend and at coasts TONIGHT...With any residual clouds ejecting Ewd, lows drop to mid 40s north to low 50s coast. SATURDAY...SUNNY. Highs in mid 70s. SATURDAY NIGHT...High pressure just north of area will provide clear skies and good radiational cooling prompting the coolest temperatures of this SPRING. Lows from low-mid 40s inland to 50 at coast. SUNDAY...Highs around 70 coast to mid 70s inland. && .LONG TERM (Sunday night through next Friday)...For the most part, the amplified large scale pattern is forecast to remain relatively unchanged through most of next week, with ridging over the plains states and trough along the east and west coasts. The main uncertainty is how amplified the pattern will be, which will control how warm/cool temperatures are next week. The 12Z ECMWF is the more amplified solution, with the 00Z GFS less so. With no real feel for better solution, have gone a bit below the MEX MOS numbers for the extended period. Overall, this keep temps at, or just slightly above, CLIMO for this time of YEAR. With either solution, RAIN chances will be slim for much of the week. There are hints that a southeastward moving shortwave could trigger a few showers on Monday, especially over the western zones. Have added a slight chance POP for this possibility. By the end of the week, the GFS deamplifies the pattern more significantly along the Gulf coast, which allows for increased rain chances. However, with the considerable uncertainty at this RANGE, will only have slight chance PoPs in the forecast for Thursday night into Friday. && .MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... Winds will continue to shift to offshore behind a cold front during the predawn hours, and increase to exercise caution levels this morning. There will be some decrease in WIND speeds this afternoon. However, a secondary or reinforcing cold front will cross the region late in the day switching winds to the northeast and increasing them to ADVISORY levels tonight into Saturday morning. Winds and SEAS will then decrease to below headline criteria by Saturday afternoon as high pressure settles south over the marine area. The high will then settle south of the area switching winds to onshore and keeping them light. && .AVIATION (through 12Z Saturday)...Cold front has pushed past all terminals this morning. Some lingering low clouds may bring a brief period of IFR cigs to KABY and KDHN early this morning. Otherwise, expect gusty north to northeast winds and VFR conditions through the remainder of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER...A drier air mass will filter into the region for today, and even more so for Saturday. However, RH values are forecast to remain well above critical levels today. While RH values will FALL well into the 20s for Saturday, winds and ERC values are LIKELY to remain below thresholds. Therefore, no fire weather headlines are necessary at this time.
bulletin – eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
National Weather Service tallahassee fl
327 PM CDT thu apr 5 2012
the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a
* severe thunderstorm warning for,
eastern dale county in southeast alabama,
henry county in southeast alabama,
northern houston county in southeast alabama…
* until 415 PM CDT
* at 325 PM CDT, the National Weather Service has detected a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. these storms were located along a line extending from 13 miles west of abbeville to newton, or along a line extending from clopton to five points, and moving east at 30 mph.
* other locations in the warning include but are not limited to pinckard, midland city, headland, dothan, kinsey, webb,
cowarts, ashford and columbia
this is a dangerous storm. if you are in its path, prepare
immediately. people outside should move inside a strong building but away from windows.
lat, lon 3158 8506 3154 8504 3147 8507 3143 8506
3142 8508 3137 8509 3132 8508 3128 8511
3123 8510 3111 8514 3124 8564 3163 8549
3162 8543 3167 8542
time, mot, loc 2027Z 288Deg 25Kt 3162 8545 3130 8559
WWUS62 KTAE 051858
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 148
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
258 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012
The National Weather Service Has Issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 148 in Effect Until 10 PM EDT /9 PM Cdt/ This Evening for The Following Areas
in alabama this watch includes 5 counties
in southeast alabama
coffee dale geneva henry houston
in florida this watch includes 12 counties
in north florida
bay calhoun franklin gadsden gulf holmes jackson leon liberty wakulla walton washington
in georgia this watch includes 21 counties
in south central georgia
ben hill colquitt irwin thomas tift turner worth
in southwest georgia
baker calhoun clay decatur dougherty early grady lee miller mitchell quitman randolph seminole terrell
this includes the cities of, abbeville, albany, apalachicola, arlington, ashburn, ashford, bainbridge, blakely,
blountstown, bonifay, cairo, callaway, camilla, carrabelle, chattahoochee, chipley, colquitt, cottonwood, cowarts,
crystal lake, cuthbert, daleville, dawson,
de funiak springs, donalsonville, dothan, douglasville,
edison, enterprise, fitzgerald, five points, fort gaines,
fort rucker, geneva, georgetown, graceville, hartford,
headland, hudson, inwood, kinsey, leary, leesburg,
lynn haven, lynn haven, malone, malvern, marianna, morgan,
moultrie, newton, ocilla, ozark, panama city, pelham,
port st. joe, quincy, rehobeth, samson, shellman, slocomb,
smithville, sneads, sopchoppy, spring hill, st. marks,
sweetwater, sylvester, tallahassee, taylor, thomasville,
tifton, upper grand lagoon, webb, wewahitchka and white city.
Clouds increasing throughout the morning. Scattered showers (70%) begin around midday with heavy downpours and storms throughout the afternoon and evening. There’s a slight chance (15%) for severe weather, with hail and gusty winds. High 82. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...Updated for Aviation Section NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 634 AM EDT Thu Apr 5 2012 .AVIATION... A FEW areas of FOG and/or LOW clouds will dissipate by MID to late morning, except at KECP where MVFR cigs may linger much of the day. SCATTERED to NUMEROUS TSRA will develop late this morning or early afternoon, and spread from west to east during the afternoon and evening. Some storms may be strong to severe with WIND gusts to 50 KT and large HAIL. The strongest storms will end by SUNSET, but SHRA will continue overnight. Low cigs and fog are possible late tonight, but confidence is not yet HIGH enough to include their mention in this TAF package. Previous Discussion Follows... ...A Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms remains for our entire area today... SYNOPSIS... A large MCS that moved over eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday NIGHT continues to move SEWD taking the earlier CONVECTION with it. A LIKELY severe weather event will occur today with very strong upper support interacting with a relatively weak surface low and FRONT. some of this convection in the next in a series of MCSs was already forming off the coasts of LA. AT UPPER LEVELS... The large scale longwave blocking pattern persists highlighted by CUTOFF low approaching AR and trapped under strong RIDGE extending NWD THRU CNTRL Canada. This is anchored in NRN stream by troughing over WRN and ERN states and in the SRN stream by ridging over Wrn and Ern states. The potent cutoff low will start to move more quickly ESE today AS it phases with amplifying Nrn stream TROUGH. Low will REACH MEM by 18z then N/Cntrl AL/GA border tonight with H5 TEMPS -18-20C with strong H5 JET to its south. Then it weakens and opens up into wave off SC/GA coast Fri AFTN. However its local impact will be felt beginning this morning as low/H5 jet drop SEWD bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms some of which will be strong to severe. AT LOWER LEVELS... In response to above potent Upper Level Low, a weak surface low has developed across Wrn TN Valley with trailing cold front SWWD across LA/TX. This low is expected to move across Cntrl AL and GA during the day. The GFS has a slightly more defined surface low than the NAM. By sundown low expected across Nrn GA with cold front reaching CWA. By SUNRISE Fri, low to move off Carolina coast with front just E/SE of CWA. Ahead of this cold front, the airmass ahead of it is moderately unstable with dewpoints in the mid 60s and SBCAPE values of 1500-2000 j/kg. Mid level lapse rates are expected to be fairly steep at 6.5-7.0 C/km. Deep layer SHEAR values are expected to be 35-40 knots with 0-1 km shear values on the order of 15-20 knots certainly enough to support organized updrafts With relatively low 0-1 km shear and winds in the SFC-3km layer relatively weak, the threat of tornadoes is on the low side, although not completely zero. With WLY unidirectional shear, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderately high CAPE values, the main threats are expected to be damaging winds and large hail especially late morning and early aftn west of the Apalachicola river. the focus for this threat then switches to east of river in mid/late aftn and past sunset where storms may be largely aided by residual OUTFLOW boundaries interacting with the warm sector. also, absent any glaring CIN, and with MAX DIURNAL heating, severe storms can be ongoing here past sunset. SPC continues our entire area under a high end slight risk for severe storms. This includes 15-10% W-E for wind and hail and 2-0% W-E for tornadoes. The system will clear most of the area late tonight with dry and seasonably cooler weather and BREEZY north winds in its WAKE. A reinforcing dry cold front will move across the area Friday night and continue into SAT. .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) There should be two rounds of weather during the next 24 HRS. The initial one with the MCS and the second with the cold front. HI RES models are in good agreement with the timing of these systems. The MCS should cross Dothan/Destin around 18z and exit our ern most counties around 00z. The cold front should reach Dothan around 06z and Tallahassee around 09z exiting our ern counties around 12z Fri. TODAY...As MCS moves EWD, HI RES guidance (WRF,nm4 ARW) show convection reaching our Wrn most FL counties during the late morning spreading into SE AL, Ern Panhandle and SW GA by 18z then across rest of CWA thru aftn. Newest SPC WRF with clear bowing structure crossing area. Locally heavy RAIN and strong winds likely with MCS. Second round after sundown ahead of front which moves across late EVE thru after midnight and amount and severity of convection will be in large part dependent on how much of a STABLE layer previous MCS lays down. So the highest CHANCE of severe WX will be across FL panhandle and adjacent waters thru 18z then shifting to ern Big Bend in aftn/eve. CAM shows 35%-8% SW-NE severe wx GRADIENT. local confidence tool with 10-0% SW-NE severe wx gradient 12z-18z shifting 18z-24z to 18-4% SE-NW gradient focusing on ern big bend. Maintained T+ in GRIDS during morning west of river and everywhere in aftn. TONIGHT...local confidence tool still shows up to 15% chance of severe wx during the eve west of river and across SE Big bend after midnight. cold front will move thru during the overnight hours. 40-60% NW-SE POP gradient. FRIDAY...20% POPS in mornnig SE Big bend otherwise no pops. reinforcing dry front drops Mins Fri night mid 40s north to mid 50s coast. SATURDAY...no pops. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) A weak, mostly dry cold front will move southeast through the region Sunday afternoon and evening as a fairly deep long wave trough begins to take shape over the eastern CONUS to start the new week. Another cold front (even drier than the first) will quickly pass through our area Monday, further enhancing the cooling trend. The latest ECMWF runs have joined the GFS in forecasting a significant cooldown for the eastern CONUS, with the 850 MB freezing line reaching central GA Tuesday morning. Thereafter the GFS and ECMWF diverge, as the ECMWF forecasts the deep long wave trough to essentially cut off over GA while the GFS quickly reverts back to a 500 mb pattern resembling the CURRENT one over the CONUS. Despite these differences, neither solution would result in a significant rain event for our forecast area (though a few slight chance events are possible as minor disturbances rotate through the broader longwave trough). As for temperatures, both solutions indicate a return to more seasonal temperatures, with highs in the 70s, lows in the 40s, and much lower HUMIDITY. Depending on how the details play out, temperatures could be even a little cooler than this. It looks like we`re finally going to get our early March weather...a month late. && .MARINE... Southwesterly winds and SEAS will increase Today as a front approaches from the west. MCS crossing area later today may again shift winds to offshore limiting rip currents and high surf. Cautionary conditions are possible ahead of this front this aftn especially wrn waters this aftn spreading to ern waters tonight and continuing into Fri. winds and seas higher into Fri with any strong to severe storms. Winds will turn offshore as the front passes on Friday and are expected to remain offshore through most of the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Humidity levels are likely to remain well above Red Flag criteria through Friday. In fact, "wet flag" conditions are possible Thursday afternoon. Much drier AIR is expected once the cold front moves through our area Friday, and Red Flag conditions will be possible this weekend, but the timing and location of this will depend on such details as fuel MOISTURE, winds, etc.
Cloudy at times with some scattered showers (30%). A few isolated storms in the afternoon with a high of 86. Here’s the NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...updated for aviation discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 532 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2012 ...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND LIKELY ON THURSDAY... ...COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TAP BY THE WEEKEND... SYNOPSIS... RAINFALL assocd with Tuesday`s MVC has effectively dissipated. However we are keeping an EYE on OUTFLOW generated CONVECTION moving east across coast WRN panhandle. Expect some FOG to linger this morning especially west of the Apalachicola River but advancing clouds decks limiting dense fog witnessed previous two nights. AT UPPER LEVELS... The large scale split FLOW longwave pattern commences rather amplified with well established blocking pattern. This is highlighted in NRN stream by RIDGE over Nrn Plains to CNTRL Canada anchored by troughs across extreme ERN PAC/West Coast and NE states. In SRN stream, ridge over Srn CA/Desert SW, TROUGH over Srn Plains with very slow moving CUTOFF LOW Srn HIGH Plains then weak ridging EWD to Ern seaboard with axis from NE SEWD to Srn FL. It is the low that will be our next major weather maker on Thurs. During the rest of the period, Low is expected to slowly move to Srn MO by SUNRISE Thurs then across Cntrl Gulf Region by AFTN and around base of Ern trough into Thurs NIGHT then out into Atlc early Fri increasingly flattening Ern ridge. A series of shortwaves will eject Ewd from low sparking convection. Today, one currently across OH Valley will move SEWD towards KY reaching MID-Atlc late tonight while a second IMPULSE will move across Srn AL/GA later today. AT LOWER LEVELS... Main features are high off Cntrl FL coast with ridge WSW across Cntrl FL and Gulf of MEX. 1005mb low over ern OK/KS border with warm FRONT ENE to mid-Atlc states and cold front SWD THRU ern OK/ern TX and into Gulf. During the rest of the period, under influence of upper low, surface REFLECTION will strengthen and move east thru AL by Thurs aftn dragging cold front SEWD. This low will TRACK slowly into the Carolinas on Fri before moving offshore. WSW-ENE oriented front will move from LA/MS early Thurs morning to across SE AL/SW GA/FL Panhandle during the afternoon and will exit our area Thurs night into early Fri. Ahead of these systems, with substantial low level MOISTURE and no CAPPING, the airmass is expected to be warm and unstable with dewpoints in the mid 60s and a wide area of SBCAPE values between 1500-2000 j/kg. Mid level lapse rates are also forecast to be fairly steep around 6.5-7.0 C/km. Deep layer SHEAR values with generally WLY low level flow from the GFS and NAM are forecast to be between 30 and 40 knots with 0-1 km shear around 20 knots. Guidance suggests a 60 KT H5 speed MAX across srn AL by sundown. Although WIDESPREAD severe weather is not likely, INSTABILITY indices point to strong to severe storms on Thurs and Thurs evening. In WAKE of front, large surface high builds ESE from MS Valley to SE Coast. Another SHORTWAVE diving into the Ern trough will bring a reinforcing shot of colder and drier AIR that overspreads the region thru the weekend and beyond. .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)... TODAY...Overnight RADAR shows apparent MCS over MS some of which will work its way EWD later today. Also various outflow boundaries linger from yesterday`s storms and could serve AS focus for storms today. One noted across W/Cntrl AL during predawn hours will move east into worked over area and weaken but still may help ignite storms later today. Also weak shortwave is expected to move across mainly Srn GA later during time of max heating when RUC SOUNDING PWATs around 1.4 inches and capes around 2800 j/kg. All this could spark another bout of showers and thunderstorms especially over GA counties. 40-10% NE-SW POP GRADIENT. Some storms may again be strong to ISOLD severe with locally heavy RAIN, especially if sun breaks out to enhance DIURNAL heating allowing aftn TEMPS to rise. However will not use enhanced wording in GRIDS as local severe WX tool with only 2% CHANCE and local CAM with essentially zero with CIN -7 to -10 especially over FL. TONIGHT...Afternoon convection will persist past sundown. 40-10% NE-SE POP gradient. Local severe wx tool with up to 7% chance of severe wx mainly wrn counties. THURSDAY...70-60% N-S POP gradient. Guidance indicates that ample convection will exist across wrn third of CWA early focused by warm ADVECTION along surface boundary. Some will likely be at least isold severe. Since WIND fields will be largely unidirectional, focus will be on bowing lines with damaging wind. However, temperatures should remain sufficiently cool for large HAIL. This overlays well with local severe wx tool with 25-5% SW- NE gradient of chances of severe wx in morning. Later in the day, activity will switch ewd but how strong this convection will be will depend in part on how much instability remains and impact of clouds on DOWNSTREAM INSOLATION. Still, combination of approaching upper low, next shortwave, strengthening surface low and cold front should generate organized storms moving from MS into AL then GA in aftn with a continued threat of damaging winds and large hail. Local severe wx tool with 15-20% chance of severe wx. SPC has placed Wrn 2/3rds of CWA in slight risk of severe tstms. THURSDAY NIGHT...As front moves SEWD across CWA, chances for severe wx diminish. 40-60% NE-SE pop gradient. local severe tool reflects this with 6-20% NW-SE gradient 00z-06z and 0-12% chance 06z-12z. FRIDAY...20-30% NW-SE mainly morning pop gradient. Lingering convection across ern third of local area will exit east of I-75 after midday. Expect gusty offshore winds. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) FAIR weather and a return to more seasonal temperatures are likely this weekend behind Friday`s cold front passage. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the 40s. With lower HUMIDITY, it will feel much more comfortable than the past several days. The large scale 500 MB pattern will transition to a fairly deep trough over the eastern CONUS early to mid week, though the GFS forecasts a deeper, less progressive trough than the ECMWF. The next chance for rain will be late Monday and early Tuesday as a cold front moves south through the region, though deep layer moisture and instability are not that impressive. The GFS is much cooler than the ECMWF behind this front, as it forecasts the 850 mb freezing line to REACH south GA next Wednesday morning. If the GFS verifies, we would experience our first round of below-average temperatures in quite some time. && .AVIATION... Patchy fog and low clouds will dissipate this morning, with generally VFR conditions likely for the remainder of the day. The exception will be periods of MVFR-IFR VIS/cigs and gusty winds in ISOLATED to SCATTERED thunderstorms, wich will be more NUMEROUS in the afternoon. Low clouds will likely develop overnight, with showers and thunderstorms developing near 12 UTC Thursday. && .MARINE... Winds and SEAS are expected to remain relatively low through today, except for a slight increase in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with the seabreeze. Onshore winds and seas will increase on Thursday as a front approaches from the west to borderline SCEC. Winds will turn offshore as the front passes on Friday and likely reach ADVISORY levels Fri night into SAT before decreasing to below headline criteria and remaining offshore through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Humidity levels are expected to remain above critical values through Friday. Much drier air behind a cold front may allow red flag conditions to develop this weekend.
Here’s a little longer video of those “flying” tractor trailors from yesterday’s tornadoes in Texas:
This is the most incredible tornado damage video I have ever seen. Watch the 15,000 lb. tractor trailers being tossed in the air…