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End of the Rain Clouds, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Over Donalsonville at 7:45.

Sent from my Droid.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

…BERYL GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND…WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS EVEN AS THE WINDS DECREASE…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.3N 82.0W
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI…135 KM ESE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB…29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER GEORGIA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST. BERYL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF BERYL WILL
CONTINUE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY AND MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY…AND BERYL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM
…MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE JACKSONVILLE
NAVAL AIR STATION RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH…
54 KM/H…AND A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH…67 KM/H. A WIND GUST OF 44
MPH…70 KM/H…WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT NAVAL STATION MAYPORT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 997 MB…29.44 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY…AND WILL ALSO SPREAD INLAND NEAR THE
CENTER OF BERYL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
TODAY…PARTICULARLY IN RAINBANDS.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…2 TO 4 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

Subtropical Storm Beryl has formed in the Atlantic. The official NHC forecast expects this storm to make a turn toward the SE Coast of the US possibly approaching the coastline sometime Sunday as a 50 mph storm. Tropical storm warnings and watches are up for parts of the FL, GA, and SC coastline.

Our forecast is highly dependent on the track of Beryl especially for Memorial Day through Midweek… we are in the forecast cone. The main effect seen from Beryl would probably be rainfall from a much degraded system IF a far western track is taken. The farther east the system stays, the less our rain chances will probably be. Keep in mind as a tropical system makes landfall and weakens it tends to spread out so we will hope for some beneficial rains, but also expect it to be fairly dry IF Beryl makes it’s U-Turn back to the Atlantic sooner rather than later.  You will want to stay updated on this through the weekend so stay tuned to WTVY News4.

Beryl's  Future Track

Beryl’s Future Track includes the Wiregrass in the 3-Day Risk Area.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
425 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.  WHILE THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.  THE LOW
SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON
SATURDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS
WELL AS CENTRAL CUBA. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.  ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.  FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Here’s just some of the stuff that you can now carry in your pocket… on your smart phone…

WWUS72 KTAE 240956
NPWTAE

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
556 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>009-241300-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FG.Y.0025.120524T0956Z-120524T1300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY
456 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

Dense Fog Advisory in Effect Until 8 AM CDT This Morning…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a dense fog advisory.

* visibility, a quarter mile or less.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to less than one quarter mile. if driving, slow down, use your low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

&&

Friday marks the 100th show for CBS This Morning – the show that follows Ben and me every weekday morning here at WTVY News 4.

If you’d like to be on their show, Tweet them a PICTURE of “all that matters” in your morning… by using the hashtag #100Mornings!

Ben and I are going to have some fun with this idea this Friday, and we hope you’ll join us… but don’t wait until then to send them your pictures, go ahead and do it now… and send them as many as you’d like!

-  Connor

 

 

 

Thanks to Ashley for this morning Sunrise picture over Enterprise.

 

 

Sneak Peek, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Our new High Definition cameras and news studio debut in early June.

Sent from my Droid.

Sneak Peek, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Our new High Definition cameras and news studio debut in early June.

Sent from my Droid.

Sneak Peek, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Our new High Definition cameras and news studio debut in early June.

Sent from my Droid.

Sneak Peek, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Our new High Definition cameras and news studio debut in early June.

Sent from my Droid.

Sneak Peek, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Our new High Definition cameras and news studio debut in early June.

Sent from my Droid.

bulletin – eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
National Weather Service tallahassee fl
115 PM CDT mon may 21 2012

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for,
east central dale county in southeast alabama,
southwestern henry county in southeast alabama,
north central houston county in southeast alabama…

* until 145 PM CDT

* at 112 PM CDT, the National Weather Service has detected a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail, and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. this storm was located near kinsey, or near grimes, and moving southeast at 15 mph.

* the severe thunderstorm will otherwise remain over mainly rural areas of the indicated counties.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

this is a dangerous storm. if you are in its path, prepare
immediately. people outside should move inside a strong building but away from windows.

&&

lat, lon 3128 8529 3121 8542 3137 8548 3141 8543
time, mot, loc 1815Z 329Deg 11Kt 3132 8540

Sunny and warm with less than a 20% chance for showers through the weekend.  Best chance for an isolated shower will be triggered in the afternoon, by the sea breeze, along the Gulf coast.  Highs in the upper 80s.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 AM EDT Fri May 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
A weak surface LOW was analyzed early this morning off the
northeast Florida coast while the broad upper low was centered
over the Central Savannah River Area. Both features will lift to
the northeast today becoming vertically stacked off the MID-Atlantic
coast tonight. Then, this deep layer low PRESSURE system will
become nearly stationary through the weekend with upper troughing
continuing over the local region. Since the Tri-state area will be
on the backside of the upper low, much drier AIR will be filtering
in the mid and upper levels on deep north to northwest FLOW. Model
forecast PW`s through the period are generally in the 1.0" to 1.4"
RANGE with the higher amounts over our easternmost zones. Even so,
most of the MOISTURE is confined below 700mb. Low level winds will
swing around from northerly today to northeast to east over the
weekend. Today POPS will be tapered from silent 10% west to lower
end CHANCE (30%) easternmost zones. PoPs will be tapered more north
to south oriented over the weekend with ISOLATED CONVECTION
developing along the afternoon seabreeze and pushing further inland.
Temperatures will be near seasonal levels.

.LONG TERM (Sunday NIGHT through next Friday)...
At upper levels, broad cyclonic flow will remain in place across
much of the Southeastern U.S. with the lowest heights near NC. An
UPSTREAM short wave will be moving east from the northern and
central Great Plains toward the Upper MS Valley. This energy will
move into the southeastern TROUGH and help keep it in place until
Wednesday. The trough will then finally begin to eject northeast AS
a long wave trough deepens out west. At the surface, an easterly low
level flow regime will be in place at the beginning of the period
with an inverted trough extending from the northwest Caribbean
northeast into the FL Peninsula. Surface HIGH pressure will
gradually move north of the area shifting low level winds to onshore
once again by the weekend. Overall, there appears to be little large
scale forcing evident during the long term period with a cold FRONT
forecast to pull up stationary north of the region Tuesday into
Wednesday. PoPs will generally be on the low side and close to
CLIMATOLOGY (20-30) through the period. Temperatures will gradually
increase with MAX TEMPS reaching or surpassing 90 degrees by
Thursday and Friday. MIN temps will moderate from the lower 60s
Monday morning to the upper 60s by Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and SEAS will be low today and then elevate just under
cautionary levels tonight through the weekend as high pressure
builds down from the north tightening the pressure GRADIENT. Winds
and seas will be low early next week. The coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to remain on the low side for the next
several days.

&&

.AVIATION [through 06z Saturday]...
As of 06Z, all terminals are experiencing VFR conditions. There is a
possibility for MVFR conditions for TLH, ECP, and VLD sites starting
around 8Z-10Z. This morning`s guidance is trending for less
favorable flight conditions, but PERSISTENCE for the past couple of
days favor higher flight categories. Therefore, trends in VISIBILITY
and CLOUD decks are being monitored closely. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms affecting VLD and ABY this afternoon, but
due to low confidence they were not included in the TAF. There will
be SCATTERED clouds across our forecast area with some periods of
broken CIRRUS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Parts in the inland FL Panhandle will get close to red flag criteria
with min RH in the mid 30s and DSI over 75. However, a WARNING is
not planned for such marginal conditions over such a small area.
Holmes and Walton Counties will need to be monitored though. Looking
ahead to Saturday, DSI will remain high, but RH will creep upward,
so we think we`ll avoid red flag conditions on that day as well.


A Few Clouds Building, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Sent from my Droid.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
650 AM EDT Wed May 16 2012

.UPDATE...POPS have been raised over the marine area and some FL
zones to account for the arcing band of CONVECTION progressing
rapidly northward across the northeast Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...The long wave pattern across North America this morning
features a broad TROUGH across much of the eastern part of the
continent. The northern part of the trough progressing eastward
across the Great Lakes. Across the south, the trough is positively
tilted with one short wave dominant, and evident in water vapor
imagery near the TX/LA border AS of 06Z. At the surface, we continue
to see a quasistationary FRONT bisecting the forecast area from
northeast to southwest. This boundary continues to DIVIDE richer
MOISTURE to the southeast from drier AIR to the northwest. The front
has also been a focusing mechanism for convection the past couple of
days, particularly when MESOSCALE boundaries interact with it. Only
recently did the last of the inland convection associated with the
boundary exit northeast of the forecast area. Meanwhile, another
cluster of storms has developed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
is spreading northward to near the southern periphery of our
offshore marine legs. Additional storms are developing near the FL
Big Bend coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
The presence of this aforementioned pre-DAWN convection is an
indication that we expect to see a bit more coverage of showers and
storms this afternoon than we saw on Tuesday, especially over the
eastern portions of the FL Big Bend. The front will continue to be a
focus for convection today, especially once the sea breeze and any
residual or newly developed OUTFLOW boundaries interact with it.
PoPs will vary from MID RANGE (50) over the southeast zones to
slight CHANCE (20) over the northwest. Mid level TEMPS will cool
somewhat as the upper trough approaches from the west. However, the
mid and upper levels will moisten as well and this should diminish
the threat for ISOLATED severe storms. By Thursday, the short wave
energy will be passing overhead. DPVA may be fairly limited.
However, we do expect at least some contribution to lift from the
upper levels. The LOW level boundary will be diffuse by Thursday
afternoon with an inverted trough remaining in place and perhaps
drifting a bit to the west. This may actually help to pull in a bit
more moisture into our eastern zones which will also be in the more
favorable area for DPVA. PoPs will therefore run about 10 percent
higher than today`s with LIKELY (60) east to low chance (30) west.
By Friday, no real robust synoptic features will remain in play and
convection should fire mainly along mesoscale boundaries. The POP
distribution will look very similar to today`s. Throughout the short
term period, MAX temps will be close to climatological norms, if not
a bit below in areas that get the earliest convective development
each afternoon. Overnight lows will be a FEW degrees above NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
Guidance is coming into better agreement in the extended period.
Thus confidence is increasing in a slightly wetter solution. Broad
troughing in the upper levels across the southeastern part of the
country will CUTOFF and form a closed upper low centered over north
Florida. At the surface, HIGH PRESSURE will nose down the eastern
U.S. coastline resulting in moist easterly FLOW locally. The PoP
forecast is rather tricky as it greatly depends on the position of
the upper low. Should the low drift east, the local area would be
much drier than if it remained centered overhead or shifted
westward. For now, it appears as though the upper low will allow for
a sharp east to west PoP GRADIENT with drier conditions to the west.
By the weekend, the upper low begins to slowly absorb into the MEAN
flow and pull northeast. This will allow for a drying trend heading
into next week. Temperatures will remain near average through the
extended period.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Winds and SEAS will remain low through the next several days as the
pressure pattern remains diffuse. A stationary front over the waters
will gradually dissipate leaving a trough in its place. Winds will
generally be light onshore, peaking in the afternoon sea breeze near
the coast. By Thursday night, high pressure will take up residence
over the Mid Atlantic states with a tropical wave holding on across
the northwest Caribbean Sea and southeast Gulf of Mexico. This
pattern will switch winds to offshore. The gradient will tighten
sufficiently to produce exercise caution conditions in an easterly
flow regime on Friday and Saturday nights.

&&

.AVIATION (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...
Currently, VFR conditions are persisting across our CWA. There is a
chance for isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, but due to low
probabilities they were not included in the TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Due to high relative humidities, Red Flag criteria will not be MET
for any portion of our CWA over the next several days.

Very sunny with low humidity and a bit warmer.  High near 88.  Rainy and stormy for Mother’s Day Sunday.  Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 AM EDT Fri May 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AT UPPER LEVELS...
The large scale split FLOW longwave pattern remains amplified yet
progressive. This is highlighted in NRN stream by TROUGH over WRN
states, RIDGE over CNTRL states and trough over ERN states with axis
down Ern seaboard to FL. SRN stream marked by CUTOFF LOW spinning
over W TX anchored by weak ridging over Wrn and Ern states.

During the next 12-24 HRS, split flow pattern persists. In Nrn
stream, Wrn trough will move THRU Nrn Plains and UPR MS Valley
eroding DOWNSTREAM ridge while pushing it into Ern states and
kicking Ern trough into Wrn Atlc. In its WAKE, amplifying ridge
yields dry NW/N flow and ample SUBSIDENCE locally. Srn stream
cutoff low will weaken AS it lifts NEWD into N/Cntrl TX this AFTN
then across Srn Plains, opens up into a SHORTWAVE trough over LWR MS
Valley on Saturday and progresses Newd to OH Valley by 12z Mon
eroding Ern ridge and binging increasing SW steering flow to our
area. Most guidance keeps weak upper level troughing over the SE
into the extended period.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE stretching from OH Valley S to FL continues to build
SWD across the region resulting in clear skies and near CALM winds.
Per soundings, the dry AIR aloft has mixed to the surface resulting
in unseasonably low TEMPS/DEW points overnight. The dry ATMOSPHERE
in place will prevent FOG formation.

During the next 12 hrs, high pressure will gradually push EWD from
OH Valley to NC Coast.Closest FRONT well UPSTREAM in UPR MS Valley,
Great Lakes and Cntrl Plains. With high at coast, local winds will
veer to E/SE and tighten allowing some Atlc MOISTURE to move WWD and
moderate temps. Looking west, as upper low moves EWD, surface
REFLECTION develops near TX coast tonight with warm front extending
across Cntrl Gulf coast. Low advances slowly ewd across LA thru SAT
NIGHT and into S/Cntrl AL by Sun night then across Srn GA Mon aftn
before exiting into Atlc overnight.

Ahead of this low, and aided by persistent shortwave trough, local
winds veer to onshore with high amounts of Gulf return moisture
streams NEWD. Model SOUNDING reflect this showing 1.6 to 1.9 inch
PWATs Sun into Mon. This generates a prolonged precip event. RAIN,
initially mainly isentropic induced, moves E/NE ahead of low and
begins to return to area Sat EVE albeit slowly, then spreads more
rapidly and increases thru Mon before low exits area. INSTABILITY
parameters do not favor strong to severe storms. But, this event
could be a DROUGHT buster and the combination of SWLY flow aloft and
SE flow at surface may generate localized to possibly more
WIDESPREAD flooding, especially NW third of area and during the
daytime when heating creates pockets of instability for storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday).
Believe NAM POPS too low and will lean towards GFS pops which are
closer to local confidence tool, and SREF POPS.

Today and Tonight...No POPs. Highs MID-upper 80s. Lows near 60
inland to mid 60s coast.

Saturday...30-10% NW-SE POPS daytime, 50-20% NW-SE POPS at night.
Highs around 80 coast to mid 80s S/Cntrl GA/SE Big Bend. Lows
low-mid 60s inland to near 70 coast.

Sunday...70-30% NW-SE POPs. Highs near 80 coast, low-mid 80s
inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday) The long term forecast hasn`t changed
much compared to previous days with the SAME model discrepancies for
the middle of next week still apparent. Both the 10/12z ECMWF and
11/00z GFS continue to show a good CHANCE of PRECIPITATION on Sunday
night into Monday, but differences arise after that. The GFS keeps
slightly more troughing and more mid and upper level moisture over
the region, whereas the ECMWF has more drying. This results in a
difficult POP forecast, but believe the best course of action is to
continue to keep a small PoP in the forecast through the week until
the differences are better resolved. If the GFS were to verify, it
would be beneficial for the ongoing drought. Temperatures are
expected to remain near the seasonal averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with winds
mainly less than 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...High pressure building near the marine area will result in
diminishing winds and SEAS today. By tonight, high pressure building
across the Mid Atlantic and low pressure moving into the Western
Gulf will strengthen the pressure GRADIENT across the marine area
resulting in nightly surges in the winds to near ADVISORY levels.
While some decrease is LIKELY on Saturday afternoon, another SURGE
is expected Saturday night with UNSETTLED conditions continuing into
Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Long durations of low relative HUMIDITY values are expected across a
large portion of northwest Florida this afternoon. However, ERC
values are not expected to REACH critical levels with the exception
of Leon county. An increase in moisture is expected to preclude red
flag conditions over the weekend and into early next week.

Nothing but sunshine today.  Less humidity and a little breeze from time-to-time will make the afternoon high of 84 feel just about perfect for this time of year.  Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 AM EDT Thu May 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
At 3 AM EDT, cold FRONT responsible for Wednesday`s RAIN has exited
the region with clear skies overspreading the area. TEMPS ranged
from upper 50s SE AL and adjacent FL to MID 60s coast and SE Big
Bend. Winds were generally CALM to light NLY.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
The large scale amplified split FLOW longwave pattern is highlighted
in NRN stream by TROUGH across extreme ERN Pacific into West coast,
and ridging from WRN Canada SWD to Nrn UT/CO border. We also see a
full LATITUDE trough from Ern most Great Lakes SWD to Ern most Gulf
of MEX and a full latitude RIDGE over extreme Wrn Atlc. Finally, SRN
stream CUTOFF LOW was spinning over Nrn Mex/AZ/NM border.

During the next 24 HRS, split flow pattern persists but becomes
more progressive with Wrn trough moving into Nrn Rockies, SHORTWAVE
advances from Rockies to Nrn Plains, cutoff low moves slowly EWD to
CNTRL TX tonight and to NE TX by SUNRISE Fri while Ern trough swings
EWD to NE and mid-Atlc states and into Atlc. Locally this translates
to ridging, dry NW flow and SUBSIDENCE. Further EWD movement of
cutoff low that begins to fill and open up over SE region on SAT
will provide support for next local rain event (see below).

AT LOWER LEVELS...
Low over Que with trailing front SWD to 1003mb low along mid-Atlc
coast then SSW to low across NE FL coast and into Gulf of Mex. Front
marked by DEW point GRADIENT, mid-upper 60s and CLOUDY just ahead vs
mid-upper 50s and clear across SE AL. UPSTREAM, 1016mb HIGH centered
over MS Valley. During the rest of overnight into this morning, AS
upper trough axis digs, front will continue to making slow but
steady progress away from local region. In its WAKE, expect clear
skies and light N/NW winds.

During today, a much drier offshore flow and slightly cooler airmass
will spill into the region in the wake of the front. The main impact
will be noticeably lower relative HUMIDITY values as well as much
cooler morning temperatures. The surface high builds Ewd from MS
Valley THRU OH Valley to Carolina coast thru short term. This allows
an ELY return flow to begin on Friday moderating temps.

However, the primary MOISTURE return will not begin until Friday
NIGHT and its source will be the cutoff low over TX that finally
begins to move more quickly east. This in combination with advancing
shortwave will induce slow CYCLOGENESIS over Wrn Gulf with
increasing moist SLY flow into the deep south. Warm front should
extend from newly formed low SEWD across Ern Gulf. Low will then
begin to move Ewd lifting warm front. At this point, it appears any
rain over land will hold off until at least Sat AFTN when some
isentropic lift commences. However many rain event not LIKELY to
commence until Sat night with approach of low.

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
No POPS except for small CHANCE Saturday mainly over wrn waters.

Today...Clear skies and noticeably less humid. Highs 82 TO 86.
Lows mid 50s N to low 60s at coast.

Friday...Highs from low 80s coast to mid 80s inland. Lows around 60
inland to mid 60s coast.

Saturday..Highs around 80 coast to mid 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday) The next significant system that will
affect us is the upper level low currently spinning over northern
Mexico and the southwest U.S. The GFS, Euro, and Canadian models all
agree that this will move eastward and open up into a trough.
Moisture return looks fairly significant ahead of it with the 10/00z
GFS forecasting precipitable water values as high as 1.75 inches in
the area on Monday, which is considerably above NORMAL for May. Rain
chances will start to increase on Sunday over the western part of
the forecast area with the highest chances areawide on Monday. The
00z GFS then keeps weak upper level troughing over the southeast all
the way through next Thursday with UNSETTLED conditions and a chance
of rain each day. The 09/12z Euro dries things out a bit faster,
although it also has weak troughing remaining in the vicinity. The
official forecast will keep at least some small POP in through
Thursday. If the GFS were to verify, it would be beneficial for the
ongoing DROUGHT. Temperatures are expected to be near the seasonal
average during the day, although they may remain a couple of degrees
above average at night due to the increased CLOUD cover and moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. An
occasional northerly WIND GUST around 15 knots is possible during
the late morning to early afternoon hours. This should diminish
during the mid-afternoon as high PRESSURE builds closer to the
area.

&&

.MARINE...Winds were shifting to the northwest and north overnight
in the wake of a passing cold front...approaching exercise caution
levels away from the coast. Winds will decrease later today into
Friday as high pressure passes north of area. Easterly flow will
develop Friday as the high settles over the Carolina Piedmont
region. Winds and SEAS will increase into the weekend as low
pressure develops over the western gulf. Periods of ADVISORY level
winds and seas will be possible through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With the new DISPERSION forecast below 75 across northwest Florida
and the anticipation that recent rains have raised fuel moisture,
the fire weather WATCH for this afternoon has been canceled.
However, relative humidity values will still be on the low side this
afternoon and again on Friday afternoon before moisture starts to
return ahead of the next chance of rain.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
330 AM EDT Wed May 9 2012

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
AT UPPER LEVELS...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by ridging over
Intermountain region, and a positively tilted TROUGH moving eastward
across the Upper Great Lakes THRU LWR MS Valley and SRN Plains. A
LOW has cut off from this FLOW and is drifting southward and
spinning over NRN Baja. DOWNSTREAM, nearly zonal flow dominates SE
region with a RIDGE axis off the U.S. east coast.

During the next 12-24 HRS, the NRN portion of the trough is forecast
to move E and amplify across Great Lakes, then OH/TN Valleys
reaching East coast overnight. Srn portion will dig across the deep
south this AFTN/EVE, further separating itself from CUTOFF low which
drops further SWD in Nrn MEX. This will change local flow from
quasi-zonal to increasingly cyclonic. On Thurs, trough becomes
negatively tilted with embedded low over se Ont/nrn NY. By eve low
pivots SEWD AS trough approaches then lifts off coast by 12Z Fri. In
its WAKE, amplified UPSTREAM ridging builds in with NW flow and
SUBSIDENCE commencing locally on Thursday.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
At the surface, a quasi-STNRY cold FRONT extended from low PRESSURE
over the ST. Lawrence Valley SWWD along the Appalachian Mountains to
the AL Coast. This kept highest RAIN chances overnight closest
to the front and NW of our area. Ahead of this front, a humid and
unstable AIR mass dominates local area. As the upper trough digs
SEWD, it will drive the cold front through the area beginning late
this afternoon into late this eve. Rain chances will increase from
NW-SE accordingly today.

The upper energy will result in CYCLOGENESIS just off MID-Atlc
states tonight. This will kick front through our area thru tonight
reaching coast by midnight. MAV a little faster then NAM accounting
for lower POPS SE third of CWA. In its wake, a 1020+ MB HIGH moves
from mid-continent to Carolina coast on Friday setting up ENE flow.
Skies will clear from N-SE with a much drier and slightly cooler
airmass expected. The cooler airmass and strong radiational cooling
will lead lead to cooler mornings and a less humid Thursday and
Friday. Despite rather cool H85 TEMPS for May, good mixing should
raise aftn MAX temps to the mid 80s.

Severe weather potential for today...
With a moist and unstable airmass anchored over the region, aided by
the digging trough and assocd vort max and belt of stronger H5 40 KT
flow, deep layer SHEAR will increase to above 30 knots. SCATTERED to
NUMEROUS showers and thunderstorms are expected beginning in the
late morning across SE Alabama and spreading south and east through
the afternoon and into the eve for ERN counties. With cold front
moving well ahead of lagging upper trough, and unidirectional WSW
flow, thermodynamic profiles, upper forcing, and weak vertical WIND
shear are not ideal for a WIDESPREAD severe event. However, with
some INSTABILITY and shear in place, some severe multicells remain
possible generating damaging winds and possibly marginally severe
HAIL as being the primary threats. This is especially so if DIURNAL
heating favors sufficient boundary later warming to steepen lapse
rates and/or lingering OUTFLOW or seabreeze boundaries enhance
CONVECTION.

SPC keeps SE ALA, adjacent inland FL and most of Srn GA in slight
risk with 15% damaging wind, 5% severe hail and NIL chances for
tornadoes. Main change from previous day 1 was to deemphasize large
hail. CAM (local tool) shows aftn DEW points around 70F but UPDRAFT
potential modest at best with CIN around zero with best negative
numbers only in AL/GA. Conversely, local confidence tool limits any
severe potential to less than 10 percent) and as opposed to SPC
focuses to coast and and adjacent waters. Hard to rationalize
highest chances of severe WX over water.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRIDAY)...
Today...With debris clouds lingering, it will be difficult for areas
of FOG to exist after SUNRISE, even with moist ground conditions.
70-40% NW-SE POP GRADIENT. (see above for severe weather threat).
With 18z model soundings shows in excess of 1.7 inch PWAT, cant
discount locally heavy rains and localized flooding. Highs low to
mid 80s.

Tonight...20-50% NW-SE mainly evening POP gradient. Lows from upper
50s N to low-mid 60s S.

Thursday...no POPS. Highs 80 to 85. Lows mid 50s north to low 60s
coast.

Friday...No POPS. Highs low 80s coast to mid 80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday) The main item of interest for the
long term is the closed upper level low currently located over the
southwestern U.S. The 09/00z GFS, 09/00z GGEM, and 08/12z ECMWF all
move this system eastward towards the area by late in the weekend
into early next week and open it up into a trough. This system will
LIKELY bring us a good CHANCE of showers and thunderstorms, but
uncertainty exists in the timing. The previous forecasts have leaned
towards the ECMWF solution, and that trend will be continued for
this forecast. The 08/12z ECMWF brings the best chance of rain into
the area on Monday with lingering chances into Tuesday. However,
PoPs were kept in the chance RANGE until confidence increases in the
timing of the system. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
Some VIS restrictions due to fog are possible for a FEW hours around
sunrise this morning, mainly of the MVFR to IFR variety. Any fog
will dissipate shortly after sunrise this morning with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon
as a cold front pushes into the Tri-state region. A few of the
storms could be strong to severe.

&&

.MARINE...Winds will increase this afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front, with moderate offshore developing in the
wake of the front tonight into Thursday. A brief period of exercise
caution conditions will be possible offshore behind the front. Winds
and SEAS will then weaken through Friday before increasing again
over the weekend as low pressure develops along the central Gulf
Coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today will feature plenty of low level MOISTURE and elevated rain
chances across the area as a cold front moves through. Significantly
drier conditions are expected for Thursday and Friday with relative
HUMIDITY values dropping to near or below critical levels. Red flag
conditions will depend on the other factors such as wind,
DISPERSION, and fuel moisture. With rain chances high across the
area today, fuel moisture may be marginal so will hold off on any
watches for Thursday for now.

Thanks to John Chisum for this picture from Tuesday.  He was driving south on US 431 around 2:55 p.m. and took this with his I-phone, close to the Westgate Pkwy Exit.

We’re expecting more downpours like this throughout Wednesday.  There’s a possibly some of the storms could produce damaging winds and small hail.

 

Clouds increasing throughout the day with scattered showers (50%) and isolated storms in the afternoon.  Those showers will continue overnight, with rain chances increasing to 70% for Wednesday.  High 88.  Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
524 AM EDT Tue May 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
The regional weather pattern this morning is still characterized
by abundant LOW-level MOISTURE, a weak surface PRESSURE pattern,
and being situated in an area of light FLOW aloft between the
split branches of the upper level JET stream. AS such, things are
fairly benign this morning with the regional RADAR mostly QUIET
and a little light FOG. OUTFLOW boundaries from earlier storms
have since lost their character and probably won`t have a
significant impact as we move into the daylight hours. Surface
dewpoints tonight have remained approximately 2-3 degrees higher
than this time 24 hours ago, which reduces concerns about the
ability of the ATMOSPHERE to recover from the previous day`s
convective activity. To the north and west, the approaching cold
FRONT was beginning to take shape. It extended from a surface low
near Lake Erie, southwestward towards the Arklatex.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday]...
The focus in this period was on convective trends in the next 36
hours, prior to the arrival of a cold front.

TODAY: Another day of SUMMER-like weather is expected with warm,
MUGGY conditions, a sea-breeze CIRCULATION, and SCATTERED storms
in the afternoon and early evening hours. With respect to highs,
model guidance seems to be underestimating potential warmth again
and most models have verified with a cool BIAS the past FEW days.
There are less concerns about morning CLOUD debris in the SE half
of the forecast area, so highs in those locations were bumped up
to 89-91 degrees. Further west forecast highs are mostly 87-88.

We expect sea-breeze CONVECTION again today. The WIND profile
below 700mb is a bit inconsistent amongst the numerical models,
but most agree on about 5kt of flow in the 1000-700mb layer with
somewhat of a northerly component. CLIMATOLOGY would suggest the
best chances of RAIN hugging the coast south of I-10 between
Destin and Apalachicola in the afternoon, with a relatively dry
period in the morning hours. This seems entirely reasonable, and
in fact many convection-allowing models paint a similar picture.
Confidence is not HIGH enough to totally remove POPS prior to 18z,
but these were cut back to around 20%. Afternoon PoPs were a
combination derived from the sea-breeze climatology, high-res
model guidance, and MOS consensus - with less weight given to the
coarser MOS numbers. Essentially, this yields LIKELY PoPs in our
Florida zones from Jefferson County westward. With 0-6km MEAN wind
expected to be 7kt or less today, storms should be very slow
moving with the potential for localized heavy RAINFALL. We can`t
rule out the possibility of an ISOLATED severe DOWNBURST, but
overall severe probabilities are fairly low. STORM-scale ENSEMBLES
show maximum surface winds amongst all the ENSEMBLE members this
afternoon peaking around 30kt or so in our area, which seems very
reasonable. Typical downburst indicators like maximum DELTA THETAE
and WMSI are outside of the most favorable PARAMETER space.

WEDNESDAY: Portions of our area are outlooked in a Slight Risk on
the preliminary SWODY2 from SPC - generally along and north of a
ECP-TLH-VLD line. Storm organization seems somewhat questionable
at this point, despite fairly WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM activity.
Certainly the MID-upper level flow will increase somewhat compared
to what we are seeing today, but deep layer SHEAR vectors in the
warm sector are only about 15-20 knots based on a consensus of the
available model guidance. The strongest shear seems to LAG the
front, and thus our CURRENT expectation is that severe storms will
remain somewhat isolated. However, with increasing mid-upper level
flow atop a moisture and CAPE-rich boundary layer, it`s hard to
rule out some severe weather. Stay tuned!

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY: The cold front will be pushing
through the area Wednesday Night. Model mean 850mb temperatures at
12z Thursday in the northwest part of our area could support lows
into the mid-50s as rain and clouds clear out from west to east.
Despite the cooler start to the day, there is not likely to be
substantial cooling behind the front and forecast highs on
Thursday are still in the 80s. The main change with this front
will be less HUMIDITY.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through next Tuesday]...
After the cold frontal passage in the short term period, the
extended FCST will begin with FAIR, dry, and very close to
seasonable temperatures through at least the first half of the
weekend, before the unusually ACTIVE Sub-Tropical Jet Stream for
this time of YEAR pushes another Upper Level Low Pressure System
our way from the west. Although there have been some subtle run to
run differences with the ECMWF, it has clearly been the more
consistent model than the GFS (which now appears to be opening up
the Upper Low too quickly into a fairly flat SHORTWAVE TROF). This
new GFS solution would split much of the deep layer moisture both
off to our north and south respectively, and result in lower Pops
and QPF which we do not expect at this time. Therefore, leaned
more heavily on the Euro solution, which would indicate a fairly
wet period across the CWA from late Saturday night through
Tuesday. However, to keep within ISC tolerances, and allow for
changes in the model guidance in later runs, did not bump up PoPs
quite as high as we would have liked to at this time.

&&

.AVIATION [through 06z Wednesday]...
Yet another tricky SET of TAFS overnight, as we have some
areas that are mostly clear to partly CLOUDY (mainly to the N and W
where little or no rain fell yesterday afternoon and evening), and
other areas with plenty of lingering low to mid level cloud debris
from the earlier convection. The NARRE seems to be handling the
development of the low clouds well over eastern portions of the CWA
(except for VLD which has already crashed to LIFR level CIGS with
similar VIS), and once the mid-level debris dissipates at TLH, they
could see a late developing IFR/LIFR level fog event between 10 and
13 UTC. Elsewhere, am only expecting tempo MVFR conditions at DHN
with prevailing MVFR level CIGS at ABY, and VFR at ECP in the drier
AIR. During the daylight hours, expect another convectively active
day, forced mainly by the sea breeze circulation interacting with
lingering SFC boundaries and possibly some weak upper level forcing.
These showers and storms should spread generally from SW to NE to
the terminals, with the best chances for rain at TLH, ECP, and DHN.

&&

.MARINE...
Weather remains fairly benign over the coastal waters for the next
24-48 hours - prior to the arrival of the cold front. At that
point, northwest to north flow should increase and could possibly
approach cautionary levels on Wednesday Night or Thursday Night.
This would be pretty marginal though (right around 15kt). As the
weekend approaches, developing low in the western Gulf and
stubborn high in the Southeast should lead to strengthening
easterly flow and the potential for some ADVISORY-level winds/SEAS.


Afternoon Clouds, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Sent from my Droid.

Thanks to Ben Driscoll for these hailstone pictures from some of the Sunday afternoon storms.

These were from about 2 miles north of Taylor, southwest of Dothan.

Mostly dime-size but had a few nickle-size… Luckily no dents in the cars!

 

Cloudy and wet with scattered showers (50%) from time-to-time.  Isolated storms and downpours expected late in the day. High 86. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
500 AM EDT Mon May 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern remains quite complex over the Southeast this
morning, with several MESOSCALE features generated by convective
activity in the past 12-24 hours. We had quite a FEW thunderstorms
that developed yesterday across the area. In general, the storms
formed a common convective cold POOL and pushed south eventually
weakening AS they approached the Gulf of Mexico. These storms
produced sporadic WIND damage and a few measured gusts in the
40-50kt RANGE. The WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM development led to a
convectively overturned boundary layer, and we are still seeing
the effects of this early this morning. Our local forecast area is
essentially co-located with a minimum in both MUCAPE and boundary
layer dewpoints. This presents some challenges regarding the
convective forecast today, which will be discussed below. The
storms did produce some beneficial RAINFALL in our AL-GA zones.
Gauge-adjusted Q2 rainfall estimates were at least 0.50" in many
areas, with a few areas receiving up to 2-3" of RAIN. Things were
drier across the Florida Panhandle, as storms mostly started
dissipating by the time they arrived there.

Aloft, water vapor satellite and RUC analysis revealed that broad
cyclonic FLOW and a large area of slightly lower MID-level heights
had developed ESE over the past 24 hours, now centered over GA/SC.
Embedded within this region were two PV anomalies / MCVs. The
first was partially responsible for triggering storms in our area
today and is now moving quickly east over NE FL. The second is
moving more slowly over southern SC. At the surface, mesoscale
areas of HIGH PRESSURE were situated over SE AL and SW GA with
corresponding lower surface dewpoints. Greater LOW-level MOISTURE
nearby was found in SE GA and along the FL Atlantic coast, as well
as just offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. A surface high pressure
RIDGE continued to build down the Carolinas.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday]...
The primary focus was on trends through 06z Tuesday (today and
into this evening), with only minor tweaks made to the forecast
beyond that timeframe.

TODAY: CONVECTION-allowing models are in much better agreement
regarding the convective evolution today. The POPS derived from
the 4km NCEP WRF runs and our local 4km WRF-ARW were incorporated
into the GRIDS for today - yielding a maximum in the FL Big Bend
and adjacent SC GA (70-80% PoPs). One potential pitfall is the
recovery of low-level moisture this morning. The dewpoint trends
this morning will probably tell the story: if they struggle to
rise into the mid-upper 60s, particularly in the aforementioned
area of higher PoPs, then convective coverage could be far more
limited than what we saw yesterday. In general, we expect decent
recovery across the eastern half of the area. RUC analyzed 0-1km
mixing ratio this morning showed a relative minimum of 9 g/kg near
Walton County, with a maximum of 14 g/kg near the GA coast, a
substantial west-to-east GRADIENT. Meanwhile, area VWPs across S
GA and N FL all show increasing flow in the SAME layer with an
easterly component. As such, the eastern border of our forecast
area should be right near the nose of a broad easterly 0-1km
moisture transport maximum by 18z, and would be a favorable
location for convective initiation.

Severe weather potential today looks to be lower than yesterday.
Model forecast soundings almost all show slightly warmer mid-level
temperatures with slightly lower surface dewpoints, which yields a
shorter and narrower CAPE profile overall. However, models that
don`t erroneously convect earlier in the morning show maximum
DELTA THETAE values around 20-22C with MLCAPE around 1000-1500
j/kg, which could support some ISOLATED severe downbursts. The 5%
probabilities from SPC on the initial SWODY1 seem reasonable.
STORM motions will be very slow today, generally 10 knots or less
in the absence of organized and sizable cold pools. Therefore,
localized heavy rainfall and flooding cannot be ruled out.
Finally, high temperatures yesterday were well in excess of model
guidance. Many highs in the 90s were recorded with TLH at 93 and
VLD at 97. With 850mb temperatures only about 1C cooler today, and
limited CLOUD coverage prior to convective initiation, it seems
LIKELY that many areas could REACH around 90 again today.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: Very few notable changes were made in these
periods. The high temperatures were nudged up slightly each day
with forecast low-level TEMPERATURE profiles expected to remain
roughly the same as today. In the big picture, the forecast will
be very similar for the entire Monday-Wednesday period, with
mesoscale details ultimately determining where the most storms are
focused each day.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday NIGHT through next Monday]...
Not too many changes were made from the prior extended forecast,
as both the ECMWF and GFS are in very good agreement with the Cold
Frontal Passage on Wednesday Night into Thursday morning. However,
the FAIR, cooler, and drier AIR building in behind it may only
last for 2 to 3 days now (rest of Thu into SAT), as the unusual
and anomalously ACTIVE subtropical JET stream for this time of
YEAR appears poised to send yet an another Upper Level SHORTWAVE
in our direction over the latter half of the weekend into early
next week. The new 00 UTC run of ECMWF is especially active with
this system, so PoPs were adjusted upward a bit to blend in with
the GFS. If the GFS trends more towards the Euro on later runs, it
could be a very wet period with plenty of beneficial rainfall from
Sunday through Tuesday of next week, which is certainly much
needed across our DROUGHT stricken area.

&&

.AVIATION [through 06z Tuesday]...
Had to essentially re-write the entire first portion of the
Aviation Discussion for the 06Z package, as the drier air that has
advected in behind Sunday`s MCS has caused a fairly quick EROSION
of the Dense FOG at DHN, and now it appears that most sites are
likely to only experience a period of MVFR conditions into the
early morning hours, if at all. However, will still need to keep a
close EYE on DHN, as some locations not too far to the north like
Troy, are continuing to deteriorate. Today, we could see fairly
similar conditions as we witnessed on Sunday, with good chances
for afternoon thunderstorms accompanied some gusty winds, likely
propagating from a NE-SW fashion during the afternoon hours, but
wind gusts are not expected to be as nearly as strong with less
daytime heating and destabilization, aided by the drier air mass
that has pushed in from the north behind the prior MCS.


&&

.MARINE...
A benign weather pattern will continue over the coastal waters
with light winds and SEAS 1 foot or less expected through Tuesday
Night. A slight increase in winds is expected around a cold FRONT
passage Wednesday into Thursday, but conditions should remain
below what would necessitate a cautionary headline.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Plenty of low level moisture and elevated rain chances should
preclude any fire weather concerns through at least the middle of
next week, with significantly drier conditions not expected until
Thursday and Friday.

 

bulletin – eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
National Weather Service tallahassee fl
157 PM CDT sun may 6 2012

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for,
coffee county in southeast alabama,
dale county in southeast alabama,
northern geneva county in southeast alabama,
southern henry county in southeast alabama,
houston county in southeast alabama,
western early county in southwest georgia…

* until 245 PM cdt/345 PM edt/

* at 155 PM CDT, the National Weather Service has detected a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing quarter size hail, and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. these storms were located along a line extending from 6 miles southwest of elba to
columbia, or along a line extending from basin to columbia, and moving south at 20 mph.

* other locations in the warning include but are not limited to pinckard, kinsey, enterprise, level plains, daleville, webb, dothan, cowarts, ashford, taylor, slocomb, samson and hartford

this is a dangerous storm. if you are in its path, prepare
immediately. people outside should move inside a strong building but away from windows.

lat, lon 3153 8620 3154 8617 3153 8593 3150 8503
3149 8502 3148 8499 3107 8496 3108 8502
3106 8502 3108 8620
time, mot, loc 1858Z 000Deg 16Kt 3133 8614 3129 8509

bulletin – eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
National Weather Service tallahassee fl
111 PM CDT sun may 6 2012

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for,
coffee county in southeast alabama,
dale county in southeast alabama,
southern henry county in southeast alabama,
northern houston county in southeast alabama,
western early county in southwest georgia…

* until 200 PM cdt/300 PM edt/

* at 109 PM cdt/209 PM edt/, the National Weather Service has detected a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing quarter size hail, and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. these storms were located along a line extending from 9 miles northwest of elba to blakely, or along a line extending from bullock to blakely, and moving south at 15 mph.

* other locations in the warning include but are not limited to headland, columbia, new brockton, fort rucker, kinsey,
newton, midland city, pinckard, webb, enterprise, level plains and daleville

this is a dangerous storm. if you are in its path, prepare
immediately. people outside should move inside a strong building but away from windows.

lat, lon 3153 8620 3154 8615 3162 8614 3162 8560
3147 8489 3120 8493 3126 8620
time, mot, loc 1812Z 004Deg 14Kt 3151 8617 3134 8491

WWUS62 KTAE 061756
WCNTAE

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 257
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
156 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

The National Weather Service Has Issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257 in Effect Until 9 PM EDT /8 PM Cdt/ This Evening for The Following Areas

in alabama this watch includes 5 counties

in southeast alabama

coffee dale geneva henry houston

in florida this watch includes 5 counties

in florida

gadsden holmes jackson walton washington

in georgia this watch includes 14 counties

in southwest georgia

baker calhoun clay decatur dougherty early grady lee miller mitchell quitman randolph seminole terrell

this includes the cities of, abbeville, albany, arlington,
ashford, bainbridge, blakely, bonifay, cairo, camilla,
chattahoochee, chipley, colquitt, cottonwood, cowarts,
crystal lake, cuthbert, daleville, dawson,
de funiak springs, donalsonville, dothan, douglasville,
edison, enterprise, five points, fort gaines, fort rucker,
geneva, georgetown, graceville, hartford, headland, hudson, inwood, kinsey, leary, leesburg, malone, malvern,
marianna, morgan, newton, ozark, pelham, quincy, rehobeth,
samson, shellman, slocomb, smithville, sneads,
taylor and webb.

WWUS72 KTAE 060802
NPWTAE

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
402 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ065-066-069-FLZ015>017-026-027-115-127-GAZ155-156-061300- /O.EXA.KTAE.FG.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-120506T1300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HOUSTON-INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL WAKULLA-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…COWARTS…WEBB… COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE…TALLAHASSEE… SPRING HILL…SWEETWATER…CRAWFORDVILLE…APALACHICOLA…
CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…SAINT MARKS…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE 402 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012 /302 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012/

Dense Fog Advisory in Effect Until 9 AM EDT /8 AM Cdt/ This
Morning…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a dense fog advisory, which is in effect until 9 AM EDT /8 AM cdt/ this morning.

* visibility, one quarter mile or less in spots.

* impacts, reduced visibility and hazardous driving conditions in areas of dense fog, more likely near rivers and lakes,
and in sheltered rural locations.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to less than one quarter mile. if driving, slow down, use your low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

&&

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