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WWUS72 KTAE 301832
NPWTAE

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
232 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-010930-
/O.EXB.KTAE.HT.Y.0001.120701T0000Z-120702T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120701T0000Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…GEORGETOWN…
FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON… LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER… ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY… COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS… NASHVILLE
232 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012 /132 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/

Excessive Heat Warning Remains in Effect Until 8 PM EDT /7 Pm Cdt/ This Evening…

…heat advisory in effect from 8 PM EDT /7 PM cdt/ this evening to 8 PM EDT /7 PM cdt/ sunday…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a heat advisory, which is in effect from 8 PM EDT /7 PM cdt/ this
evening to 8 PM EDT /7 PM cdt/ sunday.

* temperatures, highs 100 to 105 this afternoon. lows 74 to 77 overnight. highs 100 to 103 sunday afternoon.

* heat index, peaking at 112 to 116 degrees this afternoon.
maximum values of 108 to 111 degrees sunday afternoon.

* impacts, heat can have a cumulative effect, so the consecutive days of hot and humid weather will increase the risk of heat related illnesses, such as heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a heat advisory means that a period of heat indices between
108 and 112 degrees is expected. the combination of hot
temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

&&

WWUS72 KTAE 301617
NPWTAE

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1217 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-010000-
/O.UPG.KTAE.HT.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120701T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.EH.W.0001.120630T1617Z-120701T0000Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…GEORGETOWN…
FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON… LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER… ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY… COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS… NASHVILLE
1217 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012 /1117 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/

Excessive Heat Warning in Effect Until 8 PM EDT /7 PM Cdt/
This Evening…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued an
excessive heat warning, which is in effect until 8 PM EDT /7 pm cdt/ this evening. the heat advisory is no longer in effect.

* maximum temperatures(100 to) 105 degrees.

* heat index, peaking at 112 to 116 degrees.

* impacts, these conditions will increase the risk of heat
related illnesses, such as heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

an excessive heat warning means that a prolonged period of
dangerously hot temperatures will occur. the combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are likely. drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

&&

Norton Dam, Kan., recorded an all-time record of 118 degrees F. on Friday, two degrees above Death Valley’s July average!

The 118-degree reading shattered Norton Dam’s previous record of 113 degrees – set just three days before.

As June 2012 draws to a close, it feels more like mid-July or August to people in many areas of the country.

More than 350 sites across a broad area of the continent’s interior have posted daily record highs since June 27, with heat advisories on Friday covering all or parts of 23 states from Kansas east to the Carolinas, into the Northeast, and from Wisconsin south to Mississippi and Alabama.

Heat Advisories are in effect for the Wiregrass area through Sunday evening.

 

 

 

WWUS72 KTAE 291856
NPWTAE

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
256 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007-009-011-016-017-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- 301000-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HT.Y.0001.120630T1600Z-120701T0000Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-JACKSON- GADSDEN-LEON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE- WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL- COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-
LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS… QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE…TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…GEORGETOWN… FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON… LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER… ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY… COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS… NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE… QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND
256 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012 /156 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012/

Heat Advisory in Effect From noon EDT /11 AM Cdt/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM Cdt/ Saturday…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a heat advisory, which is in effect from noon EDT /11 AM cdt/ to 8 pm EDT /7 PM cdt/ saturday.

* high temperatures(100 to) 105.

* heat index, due to a combination of humidity and hot
temperatures it will feel as hot as 108 to 112.

* impacts, these conditions will increase the risk of heat
related illnesses, such as heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a heat advisory means that a period of heat indices between
108 and 112 degrees is expected. the combination of hot
temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

&&

Thanks to Janeann Fessler for her picture of “real relief”!

Here’s a peak at the computer model that shows the forecasted temperatures for 3pm today. 

The purple areas are expected to be at 100 degrees… or higher!

 

 

Heat Index charts are based on shady conditions with light winds. Exposure to direct sunlight can increase heat index values by as much as fifteen degrees.

Heat dangers are increased with continued exposure to the excessive heat and/or physical activity. Elderly persons, small children, individuals in poor health, those on certain medications or drugs and persons with weight and/or alcohol problems are particularly susceptible to heat-related medical complications or illness.

NOAA’s Heat Alert procedures are based mainly on Heat Index Values. The Heat Index, sometimes referred to as the apparent temperature and given in degrees Fahrenheit, is a measure of how hot it really feels when relative humidity is factored with the actual air temperature.

To find the Heat Index, use the chart below.

For example, if the air temperature is 96°F (found on the top of the table) and the relative humidity is 65% (found on the left of the table), the heat index - how hot it feels – is 121°!

The National Weather Service will initiate alert procedures when the Heat Index is expected to exceed 105°- 110°F (depending on local climate) for at least 2 consecutive days.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

...DEBBY A LITTLE WEAKER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE FLORIDA
COAST...WARNINGS ADJUSTED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM DESTIN TO ENGLEWOOD


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW.  SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A LOCAL MAXIMUM
OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.  STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 15 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS CENTERED NEAR 44.8N 44.5W AT 22/0900 UTC 
OR ABOUT 380 NM E-SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NW AT 12 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. CHRIS 
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND 
IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS CURRENTLY 
DISORGANIZED. THE 1005 MB LOW IS ANALYZED AT 22/0900 UTC JUST N 
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM THE N GULF NEAR 29N87W THROUGH THE LOW TO OVER 
THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N90W TO 17N93W. SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO 
FALL ACROSS THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE 
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY 
OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS 
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF 
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE 
E GULF S OF 30N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER FLORIDA AND A 
PORTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IN THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 
84W. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH 
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF 
NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N29W TO 7N35W MOVING W-NW NEAR 
10 KT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N23W TO 6N30W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES 
ALONG 5N41W 6N48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 7W-15W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA AND 
FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 23W-29W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 
19N97W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS THE GULF TO NEAR TAMPA 
FLORIDA. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E GULF IS DESCRIBED IN THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE NE SURFACE FLOW W OF THE SURFACE 
REMAINS. HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS SHIFTED REDUCING THE 
ACTIVITY OVER THE W GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE GULF W OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE N INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH 
SUN POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO 
TRACK NE ACROSS THE E GULF MON AND TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ALONG THE GREATER ANTILLES BUT IS 
NOW ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STILL GIVING MOST OF 
THE CARIBBEAN NE FLOW ALOFT. THE ACTIVITY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS 
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS LEAVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS 
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO 
FRESH E TO SE TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 28N71W 
COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N BETWEEN 64W-78W AND SUPPORTING A 
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 22/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 31N68W 
ALONG 29N71W TO 27N75W. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREATER 
ANTILLES EXTENDS S OF THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE 
ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N71W 
TO THE E TIP OF CUBA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS 
WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 
67W-74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 
THE BAHAMAS AND THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF 74W INTO THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE 
NE ATLC OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL THROUGH 32N26W ALONG 24N38W TO 
A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 23N59W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW 
THROUGH FRI NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
ALONG 25N THROUGH SUN. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG 
25N THROUGH SUN. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO 
INTO FAR NW WATERS MON AND TUE.

As of midday Thursday, the tropical disturbance to our south still has a 30% chance of development in the next 48 hours as per the NHC.  As the core of tropical moisture drifts north over the next couple of days, the upper level winds that have been unfavorable for development are forecast to relax a bit.  This will make it more likely to be able to organize and the NHC may continue to increase the chances for development as we head closer to the weekend because of this.  Computer models are still all over the place as far as track scenarios to play out.  All of the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor this and be on alert for updates to the forecast.

Rainbow Color Enhanced Infrared Satellite

HURRICANE CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012
1100 AM AST THU JUN 21 2012

CHRIS HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE FEATURE THIS MORNING...AND IN FACT THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED.  A 1111Z SSMIS OVERPASS ALSO
INDICATED A SOLID CLOSED RING ON THE 37 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. 
THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED AND THE COLD INNER CORE CLOUD TOPS
ARE -60C TO -70C...RESULTING IN A DVORAK SATELLITE DATA-T ESTIMATES
OF 4.5 AND CONSTRAINED FINAL T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB.  IN ADDITION...NOW THAT THE CIMSS ADT HAS OBJECTIVELY
IDENTIFIED AN EYE SCENE TYPE...THE LAST FEW RAW T-NUMBERS WERE ALSO
4.4 TO 4.5.  BASED ON THESE DATA AND CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY
COOL SSTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT...MAKING CHRIS
THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD
OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN ITS EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AT AN
ESTIMATED 050/17.  DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS AS THE CYCLONE TURNS
CYCLONICALLY...NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LARGER MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.  AFTERWARD...CHRIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LATITUDE LOW IN 48 HOURS.
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL NW TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR 
NE GULF. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 92W TO 
INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER S 
ALABAMA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH TO OVER THE FAR NE GULF. THE 
ACTIVITY OVER THE E GULF IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION ABOVE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL 
GULF AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER YUCATAN 
TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT POSSIBLY AS A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NE TO THE E 
GULF SUN AND MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH 
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
E TO 21N63W GIVING THE CARIBBEAN NE FLOW ALOFT. THE ACTIVITY IN 
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. 
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER COLOMBIA CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO 
THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 10N E OF 79W. THIS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL 
WAVE IN THE ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SAT AND THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ALOFT...BUT BRING A 
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS. THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS N OF THE AREA 
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.



An active sunspot is amping up the sun’s activity, and has already unleashed two strong solar flares that triggered weekend geomagnetic storms on Earth, NASA officials say.

The M-class solar flares set off two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that erupted from the sun on last Wednesday and Thursday (June 13 and June 14).

The first flare peaked Wednesday at 9:17 a.m. EDT (1317 GMT), and lasted for three hours, NASA scientists said. The resulting CME was hurled into space directly toward Earth, but was not expected to carry serious effects for the planet because it was traveling at a relatively slow speed.

The second solar flare peaked on June 14 at 10:08 a.m. EDT (1408 GMT), and was also considered a long-duration event, agency officials said.

NASA also released a video of the M-class solar flare on June 14 as it was observed by the sun-watching Solar Dynamics Observatory. 

Both CMEs from last week crashed into Earth’s protective magnetic bubble, called the magnetosphere, on Saturday (June 16), sparking geomagnetic storms and intensifying aurora displays on the planet. [Solar Flares: A User's Guide (Infographic)]

Stunning northern lights were seen at lower latitudes than normal over the weekend, in some cases as low as Iowa, Nebraska and Maryland, NASA officials said.

CMEs are clouds of plasma released by solar flares into space that are sometimes aimed directly at Earth. These ejections are made up of charged particles that, in severe cases, can damage satellites, endanger astronauts in orbit and interfere with power and communications infrastructure on Earth.

The two solar flares originated from an active region on the sun that has been dubbed AR 1504. This hotspot of solar activity rotated to face Earth on the left side of the sun on June 10.

No major interferences were reported from this weekend’s geomagnetic storms, but AR 1504 still poses a threat, according to an update from the Space Weather Prediction Center, which is jointly managed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service.

“The latest geomagnetic storm appears to be winding down, with the last period of G1 (Minor) activity coming late last night EDT,” officials at the Space Weather Prediction Center said. “Solar Radiation Storm levels have returned to background levels after the small S1 (Minor) storm observed on June 16. No further activity is currently expected, but Region 1504 is still present and harbors a slight chance for subsequent activity.”

X-class solar flares are the strongest type of solar eruptions, with M-class flares ranking as medium-strength, and C-class flares representing the weakest type.

The sun’s activity waxes and wanes on a roughly 11-year space weather cycle. The sun’s current cycle, called Solar Cycle 24, began in 2008 and the star’s activity is expected to ramp up toward a solar maximum in 2013.

More at www.Space.com

 

 

 

bulletin – eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
National Weather Service tallahassee fl
355 PM CDT thu jun 14 2012

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for,
southeastern dale county in southeast alabama,
northeastern geneva county in southeast alabama,
northwestern houston county in southeast alabama…

* until 430 PM CDT

* at 350 PM CDT, local law enforcement reported a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. these storms were located along a line extending from pinckard to taylor to cowarts, moving southwest at 5 mph.

trees and power lines have been blown down with these storms.

* other locations in the warning include but are not limited to newton, and the city of dothan and surrounding communities

precautionary/preparedness actions…

this is a dangerous storm. if you are in its path, prepare
immediately. people outside should move inside a strong building but away from windows.

&&

lat, lon 3141 8542 3130 8542 3127 8516 3109 8531
3113 8559 3134 8567
time, mot, loc 2054Z 033Deg 5Kt 3130 8553 3121 8549
3117 8529

bulletin – eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
National Weather Service tallahassee fl
337 PM CDT thu jun 14 2012

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for,
houston county in southeast alabama…

* until 400 PM CDT

* at 331 PM CDT, the National Weather Service has detected a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. this storm was located near webb, and moving southwest at 10 mph.

* other locations in the warning include but are not limited to ashford, cowarts, taylor and dothan

precautionary/preparedness actions…

this is a dangerous storm. if you are in its path, prepare
immediately. people outside should move inside a strong building but away from windows.

&&

lat, lon 3131 8512 3108 8516 3107 8535 3113 8549
3118 8548 3131 8537 3131 8526
time, mot, loc 2037Z 039Deg 11Kt 3124 8529

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
934 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2012

.UPDATE...
The morning analysis shows a weak cold FRONT just north of the area
with light FLOW at the surface and aloft, typical of the SUMMER
months. Modifying the 12z KTAE SOUNDING for an afternoon T/TD of
92/67 yields an SBCAPE value just under 2000 j/kg. The 1000-700 MB
MEAN WIND today looks to be northwesterly around 8 knots, yielding a
type 8 sea breeze pattern which should keep any sea breeze
CONVECTION confined to mainly Florida. The HI-res models also show a
SCATTERING of convection across south-central Georgia associated
with the weak frontal boundary. The CURRENT POP forecast shows 20-30
percent across the area from this afternoon into the early evening
hours with a maximum across south central Georgia and the eastern
big bend of Florida. This currently looks reasonable so no changes
will be made at this time. Highs in the LOW to MID 90s are expected
this afternoon away from the beaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail all day. VCTS are forecast
for all terminals around 19Z, but conditions will still remain VFR
through that time outside of convection. The CHANCE of convection
should diminish significantly around 02z.

&&

.MARINE...
Except for a moderately gusty onshore sea breeze near the coast
this afternoon and Thursday afternoon, winds and SEAS will be at
typically low summertime levels through Thursday evening.
Northeast winds will begin to increase late Thursday NIGHT and
Friday AS an area of HIGH PRESSURE builds over the U.S. east
coast. These rather strong winds will continue through this
weekend with winds and seas approaching ADVISORY levels at times,
especially during the late night and early morning hours.

bulletin – eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
National Weather Service tallahassee fl
118 PM CDT mon jun 11 2012

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for,
eastern houston county in southeast alabama,
southwestern early county in southwest georgia,
northwestern seminole county in southwest georgia…

* until 145 PM cdt/245 PM edt/

* at 115 PM CDT, emergency management officials reported a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. these storms were located along a line extending from webb to cottonwood, or along a line extending from pleasant plains to grangeburg, and moving east at 25 mph. trees and power lines were blown down near cottonwood.

* other locations in the warning include but are not limited to columbia

precautionary/preparedness actions…

this is a dangerous storm. if you are in its path, prepare
immediately. people outside should move inside a strong building but away from windows.

&&

lat, lon 3131 8509 3129 8491 3100 8495 3100 8500
3100 8536 3131 8535 3131 8526
time, mot, loc 1818Z 282Deg 21Kt 3130 8524 3100 8525

bulletin – eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
National Weather Service tallahassee fl
152 PM CDT sun jun 10 2012

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for,
eastern dale county in southeast alabama,
henry county in southeast alabama,
northern houston county in southeast alabama…

* until 245 PM CDT

* at 147 PM CDT, the National Weather Service has detected a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. these storms were located along a line extending from 15 miles west of abbeville to 10 miles southwest of pinckard, or along a line extending from blue springs to bailey crossroad, and moving east at 30 mph.

* other locations in the warning include but are not limited to midland city, dothan, headland, kinsey, cowarts, webb,
ashford and columbia

precautionary/preparedness actions…

this is a dangerous storm. if you are in its path, prepare
immediately. people outside should move inside a strong building but away from windows.

&&

lat, lon 3177 8514 3169 8512 3162 8506 3154 8504
3147 8507 3132 8508 3128 8511 3117 8510
3117 8548 3120 8549 3119 8558 3120 8559
3162 8559 3162 8543 3171 8541 3171 8522
3174 8520
time, mot, loc 1853Z 270Deg 26Kt 3163 8545 3118 8557

bulletin – eas activation requested
severe thunderstorm warning
National Weather Service tallahassee fl
113 PM CDT sun jun 10 2012

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for,
dale county in southeast alabama,
northwestern houston county in southeast alabama…

* until 200 PM CDT

* at 110 PM CDT, the National Weather Service has detected a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. these storms were located along a line extending from 8 miles west of ariton to 9 miles southwest of level plains, or along a line extending from frisco to chancellor, and moving east at 30 mph.

* other locations in the warning include but are not limited to daleville, fort rucker, ozark, newton, pinckard and midland city

precautionary/preparedness actions…

this is a dangerous storm. if you are in its path, prepare
immediately. people outside should move inside a strong building but away from windows.

&&

lat, lon 3162 8542 3132 8542 3119 8543 3119 8564
3120 8579 3162 8579
time, mot, loc 1813Z 270Deg 25Kt 3162 8583 3119 8584

WWUS62 KTAE 101644
WCNTAE

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 368
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1244 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

The National Weather Service Has Issued Tornado Watch 368 in Effect Until 8 PM EDT /7 PM Cdt/ This Evening for The Following Areas

in alabama this watch includes 5 counties

in southeast alabama

coffee dale geneva henry houston

in florida this watch includes 12 counties

in north florida

bay calhoun franklin gadsden gulf holmes jackson leon liberty wakulla walton washington

in georgia this watch includes 14 counties

in southwest georgia

baker calhoun clay decatur dougherty early grady lee miller mitchell quitman randolph seminole terrell

this includes the cities of, abbeville, albany, apalachicola, arlington, ashford, bainbridge, blakely, blountstown,
bonifay, cairo, callaway, camilla, carrabelle,
chattahoochee, chipley, colquitt, cottonwood, cowarts,
crystal lake, cuthbert, daleville, dawson,
de funiak springs, donalsonville, dothan, douglasville,
edison, enterprise, five points, fort gaines, fort rucker,
geneva, georgetown, graceville, hartford, headland, hudson, inwood, kinsey, leary, leesburg, lynn haven, lynn haven,
malone, malvern, marianna, morgan, newton, ozark,
panama city, pelham, port st. joe, quincy, rehobeth,
samson, shellman, slocomb, smithville, sneads, sopchoppy,
spring hill, st. marks, sweetwater, tallahassee, taylor,
upper grand lagoon, webb, wewahitchka and white city.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1101 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2012
   
   VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
   PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL MT...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
   PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY ONE
   PERIOD...FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
   PROVINCES SWD THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS...BRACKETED BY TROUGHS ACROSS
   THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND E OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.  WITHIN THIS
   BROAD-SCALE PATTERN...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
   60-70 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE GREAT
   BASIN INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SYSTEM ASSUMING AN INCREASING
   NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME.  ELSEWHERE...A SERIES OF WEAK VORTICITY
   MAXIMA --SOME OF CONVECTIVE ORIGIN-- WILL AFFECT THE SERN U.S.
   TODAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A RIBBON OF 35-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW
   ENCOMPASSING ERN CONUS TROUGH.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...LEE CYCLONE OVER CNTRL MT WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE
   PERIOD WHILE SLOWLY DEVELOPING NNWWD INTO SRN PARTS OF
   ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LATE.  THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ATTENDED BY A
   PACIFIC FRONT WHICH WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES
   INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.  FARTHER SE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
   STEADILY SWD THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND SERN ATLANTIC STATES. THE
   WRN EXTENSION OF THIS WILL BOUNDARY REMAIN MORE QUASI-STATIONARY
   OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT WILL LINK WITH A N-S ORIENTED
   LEE TROUGH. 
   
   ...MT...
   
   ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ALONG SURFACE
   FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
   THE REGION.  12Z TFX SOUNDING EXHIBITED A STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE
   PROFILE ABOVE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FOR THE ELEVATION WHICH WILL
   SUPPORT MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES
   APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
   THAT INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED INVOF PACIFIC FRONT
   AND HIGH TERRAIN OF SWRN MT/WRN WY BY MID AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
   MOVING/DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NWD TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
   EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INVOF SURFACE LOW AND PACIFIC FRONT SHOW
   PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WITH 50-60 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR.  WHEN COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...SETUP WILL
   FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO
   OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL MT THIS EVENING WITHIN A
   ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND COMPARATIVELY LOWER T-TD
   SPREADS TO THE N/NE OF SURFACE LOW TRACK.
   
   ...SERN ATLANTIC COAST TO CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
   
   12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SAMPLED THE PRESENCE OF A RATHER MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 14-15 G PER
   KG/ AND A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
   MID-UPPER 80S...EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN NUMBER ALONG AND AHEAD
   OF COLD FRONT WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR.  GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1500-3000 J/KG...POTENTIAL
   WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
   STRUCTURES WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE
   HAIL.
   
   FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 1069.
   
   ...TX...
   
   MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MCV OVER THE TX
   SOUTH PLAINS INTO LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
   DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
   STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF DENSER CLOUDS NEAR
   SYSTEM CORE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD
   A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500
   J/KG.  MOREOVER...TIME-HEIGHT WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM LBB AND JAYTON
   SHOW A BELT OF MODEST /20-30 KT/ WNWLY FLOW ALONG SRN FRINGE OF
   PARENT CIRCULATION WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM
   ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.  AS SUCH...EXPECT THE
   RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
   WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

WWUS62 KTAE 051626
WCNTAE

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 358
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1226 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

The National Weather Service Has Issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358 in Effect Until 9 PM EDT /8 PM Cdt/ This Evening for The Following Areas

in alabama this watch includes 3 counties

in southeast alabama

geneva henry houston

in florida this watch includes 14 counties

in florida

bay calhoun franklin gadsden gulf holmes jackson jefferson leon liberty madison wakulla walton washington

in georgia this watch includes 26 counties

in south central georgia

ben hill berrien brooks colquitt cook irwin lanier lowndes thomas tift turner worth

in southwest georgia

baker calhoun clay decatur dougherty early grady lee miller mitchell quitman randolph seminole terrell

this includes the cities of, abbeville, adel, albany,
apalachicola, arlington, ashburn, ashford, bainbridge,
blakely, blountstown, bonifay, cairo, callaway, camilla,
carrabelle, chattahoochee, chipley, colquitt, cottonwood,
cowarts, crystal lake, cuthbert, dawson, de funiak springs, donalsonville, dothan, douglasville, edison, fitzgerald,
five points, fort gaines, geneva, georgetown, graceville,
greenville, hartford, headland, hudson, inwood, kinsey,
lakeland, leary, leesburg, lynn haven, lynn haven, madison, malone, malvern, marianna, monticello, morgan, moultrie,
nashville, newton, ocilla, panama city, pelham,
port st. joe, quincy, quitman, rehobeth, samson, shellman,
slocomb, smithville, sneads, sopchoppy, sparks,
spring hill, st. marks, sweetwater, sylvester, tallahassee, taylor, thomasville, tifton, upper grand lagoon, valdosta,
webb, wewahitchka and white city.

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