DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1101 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2012
   
   VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
   PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL MT...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
   PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY ONE
   PERIOD...FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
   PROVINCES SWD THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS...BRACKETED BY TROUGHS ACROSS
   THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND E OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.  WITHIN THIS
   BROAD-SCALE PATTERN...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
   60-70 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE GREAT
   BASIN INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SYSTEM ASSUMING AN INCREASING
   NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME.  ELSEWHERE...A SERIES OF WEAK VORTICITY
   MAXIMA --SOME OF CONVECTIVE ORIGIN-- WILL AFFECT THE SERN U.S.
   TODAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A RIBBON OF 35-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW
   ENCOMPASSING ERN CONUS TROUGH.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...LEE CYCLONE OVER CNTRL MT WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE
   PERIOD WHILE SLOWLY DEVELOPING NNWWD INTO SRN PARTS OF
   ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LATE.  THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ATTENDED BY A
   PACIFIC FRONT WHICH WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES
   INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.  FARTHER SE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
   STEADILY SWD THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND SERN ATLANTIC STATES. THE
   WRN EXTENSION OF THIS WILL BOUNDARY REMAIN MORE QUASI-STATIONARY
   OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT WILL LINK WITH A N-S ORIENTED
   LEE TROUGH. 
   
   ...MT...
   
   ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ALONG SURFACE
   FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
   THE REGION.  12Z TFX SOUNDING EXHIBITED A STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE
   PROFILE ABOVE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FOR THE ELEVATION WHICH WILL
   SUPPORT MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES
   APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
   THAT INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED INVOF PACIFIC FRONT
   AND HIGH TERRAIN OF SWRN MT/WRN WY BY MID AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
   MOVING/DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NWD TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
   EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INVOF SURFACE LOW AND PACIFIC FRONT SHOW
   PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WITH 50-60 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR.  WHEN COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...SETUP WILL
   FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO
   OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL MT THIS EVENING WITHIN A
   ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND COMPARATIVELY LOWER T-TD
   SPREADS TO THE N/NE OF SURFACE LOW TRACK.
   
   ...SERN ATLANTIC COAST TO CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
   
   12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SAMPLED THE PRESENCE OF A RATHER MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 14-15 G PER
   KG/ AND A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
   MID-UPPER 80S...EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN NUMBER ALONG AND AHEAD
   OF COLD FRONT WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR.  GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1500-3000 J/KG...POTENTIAL
   WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
   STRUCTURES WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE
   HAIL.
   
   FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 1069.
   
   ...TX...
   
   MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MCV OVER THE TX
   SOUTH PLAINS INTO LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
   DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
   STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF DENSER CLOUDS NEAR
   SYSTEM CORE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD
   A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500
   J/KG.  MOREOVER...TIME-HEIGHT WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM LBB AND JAYTON
   SHOW A BELT OF MODEST /20-30 KT/ WNWLY FLOW ALONG SRN FRINGE OF
   PARENT CIRCULATION WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM
   ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.  AS SUCH...EXPECT THE
   RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
   WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.