AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 934 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2012 .UPDATE... The morning analysis shows a weak cold FRONT just north of the area with light FLOW at the surface and aloft, typical of the SUMMER months. Modifying the 12z KTAE SOUNDING for an afternoon T/TD of 92/67 yields an SBCAPE value just under 2000 j/kg. The 1000-700 MB MEAN WIND today looks to be northwesterly around 8 knots, yielding a type 8 sea breeze pattern which should keep any sea breeze CONVECTION confined to mainly Florida. The HI-res models also show a SCATTERING of convection across south-central Georgia associated with the weak frontal boundary. The CURRENT POP forecast shows 20-30 percent across the area from this afternoon into the early evening hours with a maximum across south central Georgia and the eastern big bend of Florida. This currently looks reasonable so no changes will be made at this time. Highs in the LOW to MID 90s are expected this afternoon away from the beaches. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to prevail all day. VCTS are forecast for all terminals around 19Z, but conditions will still remain VFR through that time outside of convection. The CHANCE of convection should diminish significantly around 02z. && .MARINE... Except for a moderately gusty onshore sea breeze near the coast this afternoon and Thursday afternoon, winds and SEAS will be at typically low summertime levels through Thursday evening. Northeast winds will begin to increase late Thursday NIGHT and Friday AS an area of HIGH PRESSURE builds over the U.S. east coast. These rather strong winds will continue through this weekend with winds and seas approaching ADVISORY levels at times, especially during the late night and early morning hours.