AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
934 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2012

.UPDATE...
The morning analysis shows a weak cold FRONT just north of the area
with light FLOW at the surface and aloft, typical of the SUMMER
months. Modifying the 12z KTAE SOUNDING for an afternoon T/TD of
92/67 yields an SBCAPE value just under 2000 j/kg. The 1000-700 MB
MEAN WIND today looks to be northwesterly around 8 knots, yielding a
type 8 sea breeze pattern which should keep any sea breeze
CONVECTION confined to mainly Florida. The HI-res models also show a
SCATTERING of convection across south-central Georgia associated
with the weak frontal boundary. The CURRENT POP forecast shows 20-30
percent across the area from this afternoon into the early evening
hours with a maximum across south central Georgia and the eastern
big bend of Florida. This currently looks reasonable so no changes
will be made at this time. Highs in the LOW to MID 90s are expected
this afternoon away from the beaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail all day. VCTS are forecast
for all terminals around 19Z, but conditions will still remain VFR
through that time outside of convection. The CHANCE of convection
should diminish significantly around 02z.

&&

.MARINE...
Except for a moderately gusty onshore sea breeze near the coast
this afternoon and Thursday afternoon, winds and SEAS will be at
typically low summertime levels through Thursday evening.
Northeast winds will begin to increase late Thursday NIGHT and
Friday AS an area of HIGH PRESSURE builds over the U.S. east
coast. These rather strong winds will continue through this
weekend with winds and seas approaching ADVISORY levels at times,
especially during the late night and early morning hours.