TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS CENTERED NEAR 44.8N 44.5W AT 22/0900 UTC 
OR ABOUT 380 NM E-SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NW AT 12 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. CHRIS 
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND 
IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS CURRENTLY 
DISORGANIZED. THE 1005 MB LOW IS ANALYZED AT 22/0900 UTC JUST N 
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM THE N GULF NEAR 29N87W THROUGH THE LOW TO OVER 
THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N90W TO 17N93W. SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO 
FALL ACROSS THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE 
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY 
OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS 
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF 
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE 
E GULF S OF 30N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER FLORIDA AND A 
PORTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IN THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 
84W. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH 
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF 
NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N29W TO 7N35W MOVING W-NW NEAR 
10 KT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N23W TO 6N30W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES 
ALONG 5N41W 6N48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 7W-15W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA AND 
FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 23W-29W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 
19N97W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS THE GULF TO NEAR TAMPA 
FLORIDA. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E GULF IS DESCRIBED IN THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE NE SURFACE FLOW W OF THE SURFACE 
REMAINS. HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS SHIFTED REDUCING THE 
ACTIVITY OVER THE W GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE GULF W OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE N INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH 
SUN POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO 
TRACK NE ACROSS THE E GULF MON AND TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ALONG THE GREATER ANTILLES BUT IS 
NOW ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STILL GIVING MOST OF 
THE CARIBBEAN NE FLOW ALOFT. THE ACTIVITY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS 
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS LEAVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS 
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO 
FRESH E TO SE TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 28N71W 
COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N BETWEEN 64W-78W AND SUPPORTING A 
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 22/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 31N68W 
ALONG 29N71W TO 27N75W. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREATER 
ANTILLES EXTENDS S OF THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE 
ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N71W 
TO THE E TIP OF CUBA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS 
WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 
67W-74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 
THE BAHAMAS AND THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF 74W INTO THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE 
NE ATLC OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL THROUGH 32N26W ALONG 24N38W TO 
A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 23N59W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW 
THROUGH FRI NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
ALONG 25N THROUGH SUN. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG 
25N THROUGH SUN. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO 
INTO FAR NW WATERS MON AND TUE.