AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2012

.SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday]…
The upper pattern in place across the forecast area is not
expected to change substantially over the next FEW days, with the
region situated between a weak upper TROUGH to the west, and the
western end of the subtropical RIDGE to the east. However, subtle
changes are anticipated in the lower levels AS the subtropical
ridge axis gradually slides north from it CURRENT position just
offshore. This evolution should lead to a shift in the LOW-level
FLOW from southwesterly to southeasterly, along with a modest
increase in deep layer MOISTURE.

For today, best RAIN chances (LIKELY) will be over the panhandle
counties, closer to the upper trough. Lowest rain chances and
highest temperatures should be over south central Georgia and the
eastern Big Bend, where the upper ridge will exert the most
influence.

The moist southeasterly flow will become more firmly established
for Wednesday and Thursday, with the higher POPS spreading
eastward and somewhat northward. The attendant increase in clouds
and moisture should also help knock MAX TEMPS down a few degrees.

.LONG TERM [Thursday NIGHT through next Tuesday]…
An UNSETTLED period is expected with southeasterly flow keeping a
moist and unstable airmass in place through early next week. PoPs
are expected to RANGE between 40 and 60 percent through the period
(CLIMO for this time of YEAR is near 50 percent) with mainly
DIURNAL CONVECTION over land and NOCTURNAL convection offshore.
Near seasonal temperatures are expected with highs in the low to
MID 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Wednesday]…
Mainly VFR is expected for the remainder of the night and through
the morning hours with the exception of a possible brief period of
MVFR conditions around TLH and VLD in the pre-DAWN hours. Another
round of SCATTERED afternoon thunderstorms is expected as is
typical for this time of year. The best CHANCE of seeing
convection currently appears to be at TLH and ECP.

&&

.MARINE…The subtropical ridge axis will migrate north over the
next several days, keeping light south to southeast flow in place
over the coastal waters. Winds and SEAS are forecast to remain
below headline criteria through the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
moist onshore flow continuing through the week and into the
weekend.