AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
302 AM EDT Wed Jul 11 2012

NEAR TERM…

[Today] The overall synoptic pattern is typical for SUMMER with weak
WIND fields aloft. SCATTERED land breeze CONVECTION is expected over
the coastal waters and along the coast this morning with convection
expanding northward and increasing in coverage during the afternoon
in association with the sea-breeze. Models show a local type 6
sea-breeze day this afternoon (1000-700 MB MEAN wind S/SE < 10 KTS)
which tends to spread a fairly HIGH coverage of convection across
the Florida panhandle and big bend during the afternoon hours.
Indeed, MOS is also showing this scenario with 60-70 POPS across the
Florida zones. Farther to the north in southeast Alabama and
southwest Georgia, coverage is expected to be slightly less although
still decent with 50-60 PoPs. Seasonable temperatures in the LOW to
MID 90s are expected this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM…
[Tonight through Friday] Upper level ridging is expected to
gradually build westward with time through the short term, which
may allow for gradual decrease in PoPs over the eastern zones by
Friday, although CHANCE level PoPs will remain there. Farther to
the west, higher PoPs are expected during the afternoon with a
continuation of southeasterly FLOW which is an overall favorable
sea-breeze regime for fairly high PoPs at this time of YEAR.
Seasonably warm temperatures are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM…
[Friday NIGHT through next Wednesday] Through much of the
extended period, the region is forecast to remain on the south
side of the the mid-level subtropical RIDGE axis. This will keep
the low to mid level flow generally out of the southeast through
early next week, and keep temperatures close to NORMAL values.
With the typical summertime pattern in place, expect scattered
DIURNAL convection through the period.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 06z Thursday] The summertime pattern will continue today
with scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms impacting
all area terminals. RAIN chances will increase earlier in the
afternoon at southern terminals before spreading northward.
Outside of the convective activity, VFR conditions are forecast to
prevail.

&&

.MARINE…
Winds and SEAS are forecast to remain mainly low for the next
several days. Winds will transition to primarily a southeast
direction AS a TROUGH of low PRESSURE lifts northwestward from the
southeast Gulf of Mexico into the central Gulf. After this trough
crosses the coast, a ridge of high pressure north of the area will
once again become the dominant feature, keeping winds out of the
southeast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
With a relatively moist summertime pattern in place across the
region, no fire weather concerns are anticipated at this time.