AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 520 AM EDT Fri Jul 13 2012 NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Upper RIDGE extending down the Eastern Seaboard from the MID- Atlantic will continue to push westward and nudge the persistent TROUGH/upper LOW that has plagued the Southeast west into LA and TX. At the surface, we will continue to reside on the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, under an east/southeasterly FLOW regime. This morning, showers and thunderstorms have formed offshore along the convergent zone ahead of the remnant East Coast Seabreeze FRONT. A FEW showers have been able to survive along this boundary across land areas, but have been rather feeble. AS the storms across our Big Bend waters move west towards the coast, the possibility of waterspouts exists. This is especially true along the Franklin and Gulf county coastlines. This afternoon will be very similar to yesterday with the easterly flow creating enhanced CONVERGENCE along the Panhandle Seabreeze front and across the Forgotten Coast. Later in the afternoon, the East Coast Seabreeze front will REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH our easternmost counties bringing an enhanced risk for showers and thunderstorms. With precipitable water values well above average for this time of YEAR (~+2 standard deviations), have gone with higher than CLIMO POPS for one more afternoon. The severe weather threat for this afternoon appears to be very low. Lower than average INSTABILITY coupled with poor lapse rates, small SFC/mid level THETA-E differences, and near typical 500 MB temperatures would suggest a near zero CHANCE for severe downbursts and/or HAIL. However, there certainly exists the possibility of some sub-severe downdrafts taking a tree or two down in the strongest storms. Tonight will be much like last NIGHT as well. Expect showers to gradually diminish over land, with much more activity across Apalachee Bay with the passage of the East Coast Seabreeze. && .SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]... The upper ridge will take a much more firm hold of the Southeast on Saturday and Sunday. This will result in a much drier AIR mass, with the seabreeze fronts continuing to dominate the afternoon weather pattern. Will keep PoPs at or below climo through the remainder of the short term, taking into account the dry air. Temperatures will hold in the lower to mid 90s inland each afternoon, with temperatures along the coast remaining in the middle to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Friday]... There are some generally minor to moderate discrepancies between the the 00 UTC GFS and ECMWF runs through much of the extended period, with the GFS favoring Upper Level Ridging over the SE U.S. and a Sfc Ridge over the Northern Gulf, while the Euro has weaker Upper Ridging displaced off to our NW, with a weakness in the Pattern Aloft which gradually slides down to our CWA from the NE over time. The ECMWF also favors somewhat weaker Sfc Ridging over the Gulf, with a slightly stronger Bermuda HIGH (which will have to first displace an ACTIVE TUTT Low to verify). While both solutions favor onshore low level flow (which is generally favorable for fairly high Sea Breeze induced PoPs this time of year), we leaned more towards the GFS solution in which the Upper Ridging would suppress PoPs a bit below Climo and Sea Breeze Climo levels, and also allow for above NORMAL TEMPS with Highs in the Mid 90s away from the Coast. && .AVIATION... Despite the Fairly WIDESPREAD PoPs across the Region on Thursday, the terminals have remained at VFR levels so far for tonight. However, since it is only 5 AM EDT at this time, and there was a decent amount of lingering low level cloudiness through close to 4 AM, there is still time for a few of the sites to drop down to MVFR levels, especially at VLD and possibly ECP which received over 1 inch of RAINFALL today. Otherwise, expect another active day of CONVECTION, with PoPs in the 40-60% RANGE at most of the terminals. && .MARINE... Winds and SEAS will remain relatively low under the influence of high PRESSURE. Afternoon enhancements are expected near the coast each afternoon, with evening enhancements LIKELY along the East Coast Seabreeze each night. Even in times of enhanced winds and seas, expect winds below 15 knots and seas below 3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Plenty of Low Level MOISTURE will keep Afternoon Relative Humidities safely above Red Flag Levels during the next few days, despite the lower PoPs on Saturday and Sunday compared to today.