AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
356 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2012

SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday]…
Looking at the big picture, we see an upper level RIDGE extending
from the Central Plains east-southeastward across the MID South to
the Atlantic. To the south of this ridge, we see a tropical wave
moving west across FL. The subtropical ridge axis is north of the
area with LOW level FLOW out of the east. POPS today will be
influenced by the passing wave which will cross the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and favor increased convective coverage on its east side.
However, the deep layer ridging will suppress activity to the north.
We therefore maintain a north-south POP GRADIENT with LIKELY over
the Gulf and coastal zones and low end CHANCE (30) across the
northern half of the area north of U.S. 84. TEMPS will be close to
NORMAL in FL and a couple of degrees above across the north. By
Tuesday, the surface ridge axis will be south of the area once
again, a more favorable location for a more uniform PoP distribution
(generally 40-50). The upper ridge will build a bit to the east and
temps will respond upward by a couple of degrees. A FEW spots in the
counties bordering the Chattahoochee River could see peak heat
indices around 108 degrees, the lower end of our heat ADVISORY
criteria. PoPs on Wednesday will be close to CLIMO with afternoon
temps in the mid to upper 90s north of I-10. The sea breeze will
moderate temps somewhat to the south.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday NIGHT through Saturday]…
The long term period begins aloft with the ridge in place across
the Southeast flattening and eventually weakening by the weekend AS
a TROUGH builds across the Mid Atlantic down the Eastern Seaboard.
Through Friday, the primary forcing mechanism for showers and
thunderstorms looks to be the sea breeze CIRCULATION. The pattern of
a weakening ridge supports RAIN chances at or just above
climatological values. By Saturday, the East Coast trough amplifies
as a piece of energy moves into the Carolinas forcing a weak frontal
boundary toward the Gulf Coast. This boundary will provide
additional forcing for afternoon storms.

Daytime temperatures throughout the period will initially be above
normal (mid to upper 90s), especially Thursday and Friday. However,
a slight downward trend is expected late in the period with
temperatures returning more toward normal.

&&

.AVIATION [through 06Z Tuesday]…
Areas of MVFR visibilities are expected across the region around
daybreak. These restrictions should end quickly by 13z at all sites.
Primary concern thereafter will be with THUNDERSTORM development.
Best chances are anticipated to be at TLH/VLD/ECP in the 18z to 22z
timeframe where tempos were used. Lower rain chances at DHN/ABY will
be handled with VCTS groups for the late afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE…
Winds over the marine area are sustained around 15 KT this morning
with SEAS at the offshore buoy around 3 FT. As the ridge axis drops
southward the gradient will diminish allowing winds to veer to
onshore. By Tuesday and Wednesday, winds will have veered all the
way around to the west. Winds will then stay out of the west or
southwest through the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
With low level south to southwesterly flow persisting through much
of this week, MOISTURE levels are expected to remain well above
critical thresholds preventing red flag criteria from being MET.