AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1110 AM EDT Mon Jul 30 2012

ISOLATED strong to severe thunderstorms possible today…

.NEAR TERM…[THRU This AFTN]…This mornings SOUNDING came in
really unstable with 4069 CAPE and a PWAT of 2.1 inches.  Today`s
sounding is similar to last Wednesday sounding except that water
vapor loop shows PVA lobe sagging south into the Florida Panhandle
with sharp dry line boundary across Alabama extending northeast into
Central Georgia and into the Carolinas. With todays convective
TEMPERATURE of 83F compared to Wednesdays 92F, we expect a much
earlier start but similar strength storms.  South of this boundary,
CONVECTION is already firing up in the very unstable moist area.
Lines of east-west convection will be attempting to sag
southsoutheast under prevailing northwesterly FLOW, OUTFLOW
boundaries and seabreeze effects may stall or even backbuild
convection back to the north.  However, individual STORM motion will
be to the east today.  A major challenge to the forecast will be the
collision of the convection associated with the upper level features
sagging south, combined with outflow boundaries and seabreeze
impacts could create situations for copious accumulation of RAINFALL
and localized flooding. Beyond that there is the potential for
isolated severe storms over the Panhandle west of the Apalachicola
River possibly extending in extreme southern portions of Southeast
Alabama.

&&
.AVIATION…
Very moist conditions generated MVFR to IFR conditions this morning
at the Aerodromes, however all sites are now VFR.  Expecting a very
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM day today.

&&
.MARINE…
No changes to forecast issued last NIGHT.  Thunderstorms are already
very active along the near coastal sections from the Panhandle to
the Florida Big Bend.