DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT THU AUG 02 2012
  
   VALID 021630Z – 031200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN AL/SRN GA/SRN SC INTO
   EXTREME NRN FL…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/MID
   SOUTH REGION…
  
   …NRN HIGH PLAINS…
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA MOVING
   SEWD…AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
   WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING SWRN SASKATCHEWAN LATER TONIGHT.  AN
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NERN
   INTO S CNTRL MT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WRN ND/NWRN SD AND
   WY TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT…A SURFACE LOW/LEE TROUGH IS
   EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM EXTREME ERN MT AND NEAR THE
   ERN WY BORDER THIS AFTERNOON…AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT
   OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
  
   ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AS STRONG
   DIABATIC HEATING AND DEEP MIXING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON…SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL HELP INITIATE NEW
   CONVECTION DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODERATELY STRONG
   WINDS ALOFT WILL EXHIBIT STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT RESULTING IN
   30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
   MAINLY HIGH-BASED MULTICELL AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   AND LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CONVECTION.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
   IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY
   DIMINISHING AS PBL COOLING OCCURS.  HOWEVER…DEVELOPMENT OF A
   NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE NRN PLAINS INDICATES STRONG STORMS
   MAY SPREAD EWD AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
  
   …SERN AL/SRN GA/SRN SC INTO EXTREME NRN FL…
   A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS EXISTS OVER THIS REGION WITH SURFACE
   DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IS
   OCCURRING WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S.  12Z AREA SOUNDINGS
   AT FFC/TLH/CHS/JAX SHOWED MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 700-650
   MB AND POTENTIAL FOR CAPE TO EXCEED 3500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  DRY
   AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO
   ENHANCING DCAPE WITH MAGNITUDES REACHING 1000-1400 J/KG.  VISIBLE
   IMAGERY SHOWS TCU AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS
   OF SRN GA ATTM…AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
   AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT/VERTICAL SHEAR IS
   WEAK…THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE
   STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
  
   …MIDDLE MS VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGION…
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MCV IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
   NRN MO…WITH UPWARD MOTION AND INCREASING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
   SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL INTO SERN MO.  THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM
   AND DESTABILIZE OVER THIS AREA WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND
   DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S…WITH MLCAPE LIKELY TO REACH
   2000-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONGER NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF
   30-40 KT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /25-35 KT
   IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AS
   ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD/SEWD THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE
   POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL INTO
   THE EVENING HOURS.
  
   …LOWER MS VALLEY…
   STRONG NNWLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS SWD ACROSS PARTS OF LA AND MS AND
   POTENTIALLY WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS.
   HOWEVER…EXTENSIVE CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD SWD OVER THE AREA AND ARE
   EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  IF MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOP AND LOCALIZED ZONES OF
   ENHANCE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCUR…THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
   STORMS WOULD INCREASE.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED ACROSS
   THE REGION FOR SIGNS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
  
   ……NE IA/SRN WI/LOWER MI…
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
   WILL PROGRESS EWD TO SW QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING…WHILE A TRAILING
   COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS IA/SRN WI/LOWER MI.  A NARROW
   CORRIDOR OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE FRONT
   THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON…WHEN MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.
    HOWEVER…THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING LINGERING CLOUDS FROM
   OVERNIGHT CONVECTION…AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RATHER
   WEAK IN THE EXPECTED UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES.  A FEW STORMS
   SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST UNTIL THIS
   EVENING…BUT THE OVERALL DAMAGING WIND/HAIL RISK APPEARS TO BE A
   LITTLE TOO LOW TO WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT RISK.