TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE…AT 02/1200 UTC…IS CENTERED NEAR
12.9N 53.5W OR ABOUT 439 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVING
W AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM FROM THE CENTER OVER
THE SW QUADRANT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
50W-55W.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM NEAR
13N32W TO 8N32W MOVING WSW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 10N32W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 24N77W ACROSS CUBA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N80W TO 12N80W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 12N-16N.

…THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH…
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W EXTENDING ALONG 11N27W TO 9N31W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM S OF THE T.D. FIVE NEAR 10N53W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROF BETWEEN 20W AND THE COAST OF
W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 15W-25W…WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE FROM 6N27W 6N37W TO 9N46W…AND S OF 11N W OF 52W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED OVER E
TEXAS. A SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST INLAND ALONG THE W
COAST OF FLORIDA AT 02/0900 UTC. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N W OF 85W. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA/FLORIDA
KEYS WITH A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 24N84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT N BY MON. NORTHERN PORTION OF WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS S GULF FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA…
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC HAS ABSORBED THE UPPER LOW THAT
WAS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN…NOW EXTENDING A NARROW UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE W ATLC OVER CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA
BETWEEN 70W-79W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS
A PORTION OF PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN
S OF 10N IN COLOMBIA AND S OF 12N IN NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA THROUGH SUN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEPRESSION FIVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE W BECOMING TROPICAL STORM FRI AS IT ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO
THE W ATLC ALONG 32N78W ABSORBING THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR HAVANA
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 27N79W TO BEYOND 32N77W. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-75W AND IS ANCHORED
JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N44W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 31N51W TO 24N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 57W-71W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
25N-28N BETWEEN 42W-47W. OTHERWISE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS NEAR 33N34W AND
34N58W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST COVERING MOST OF
THE ATLC WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION WITHIN 250/300 NM OF
LINE FROM 17N40W ALONG 24N23W TO AFRICA NEAR 26N15W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN THEN WEAKEN MON. THE N PORTION
OF THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS
AND GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH TODAY AND FRI THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA
SAT AND SUN.