AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
934 AM EDT SAT Aug 4 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…

Updated at: 933am Analysis of CURRENT trends this morning confirms
previous shifts thinking that convective activity will be more
robust over western zones this afternoon. Current water vapor
imagery indicating the previously alluded to SUBSIDENCE over
eastern zones. This is being induced by the tropical wave off the
Florida Atlantic coast. This will stunt CONVECTION over eastern
zones this afternoon. But RAIN showers and thunderstorms will
eventually POP up.

The severe threat for this afternoon is similar to the previous
two days. This mornings modified SOUNDING indicates very good
INSTABILITY with little inhibition. However, SHEAR is lacking.
Combined with a very HIGH freezing level, large HAIL is not a
threat. However, wet MICROBURST potential is a definite possibility
with larger storms.

Acitivty will wane tonight, but quickly pick back up early tomorrow
with approach of the tropical wave from the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]…
Tropical wave axis is forecast to move into the region during the
day on Sunday, bringing along a slug of deep tropical MOISTURE.
This should lead to significant coverage of showers and
thunderstorms for Sunday. Initially, best rain chances will be
over the eastern half. However, the deep moisture should spread to
the western zones during the afternoon, increasing POPS there AS
well.

The wave axis will slide west of the forecast area by Monday.
However, the feed of tropical moisture will continue in its
waking, LIKELY keeping PoPs above CLIMO for the region on Monday.

MAX temperatures are expected to be a FEW degrees lower (upper 80s
to around 90) for Sunday and Monday with the increased precip and
CLOUD cover.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday NIGHT through Friday]…
Deep layer moisture is expected to remain elevated through the
period with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms and
temperatures near seasonal averages. The LOW-level FLOW is
expected to stay mainly onshore through the week with precipitable
water values near 2 inches. This upcoming week may be a good
opportunity for portions of southwest Georgia to see some
beneficial RAINFALL for their ongoing DROUGHT. The NHC forecast
for Ernesto continues to keep it well south of the area.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 13Z Saturday]…
Updated at: 933am
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected between 13-14z with
SCATTERED convection developing in the afternoon. The best CHANCE
of convection is expected to be around the western terminals near
DHN and ECP.

&&

.MARINE…
A tropical wave will move across the waters from east to
west through the beginning of the week. At this time, the PRESSURE
GRADIENT does not figure to be very tight, so winds are only
expected to see a slight enhancement and remain well below
headline criteria. Southeasterly flow will continue through much
of the week in the WAKE of the tropical wave.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Afternoon relative HUMIDITY levels are expected to remain above
critical thresholds for the next week, so red flag conditions are
not expected.