TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER…THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL
ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE VORTEX CONTINUES TO BE TILTED
NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT…AND THIS STRUCTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW
FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS STILL SHOW ERNESTO APPROACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 36 TO
48 HOURS…AND THAT IS POSSIBLE EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT SHOWN
EXPLICITLY IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATER IN THE PERIOD SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF TH
DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT USING
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THEREFORE THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION
NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY. THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE
SLOWED FURTHER…WITH A LONG-TERM ESTIMATE OF 275/10. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED…AS
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS SHOWN BY MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE
SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION BUT IS STILL A LITTLE NORTH OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS.

BASED ON THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST…NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.