AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
235 PM EDT SAT Aug 11 2012

SHORT TERM…
[Sunday through Monday NIGHT] Relatively FEW changes were made to
the previous forecast. Overall, POPS will be lower than recent
days given that some drier AIR is expected to move into the
forecast area behind the weak upper level TROUGH. Precipitable
water values are forecast to drop to AS low as below 1.00 inches
across the northern forecast area on Sunday while remaining above
1.75 inches across the southeast big bend. As a result, the best
CHANCE of seeing scattered convection on Sunday and Monday is
expected to be across the southeast big bend. Given less cloud
cover, temperatures are expected to warm back into the lower 90s
during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM…
[Tuesday through Friday] Not much change in the mid/upper pattern
across the CONUS through the extended period with ridging over the
west and troughing over the east. In general, the trough is
forecast to be broader and not as amplified with the FLOW becoming
zonal at times over the local area. The axis of the surface RIDGE
will extend from the western Atlantic across the central Gulf
keeping abundant low level MOISTURE in place with the resulting
onshore flow. Some mid level dry air is depicted on time HEIGHT
cross sections through the period but still plenty of moisture and
INSTABILITY to support DIURNAL convection. PoPs should be more in
line with what we would expect for mid to late August. MIN and MAX
TEMPS will be near to above average for the entire extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 18z Sunday] Scattered convection across the area this
afternoon is expected to diminish tonight. A rather expansive
multi-layer cloud deck is currently present across the area,
including some occasional MVFR to IFR cigs across KDHN, KABY, and
KVLD. Later tonight with abundant low level moisture still in place
and an overall decrease in cloud cover, some patchy fog and/or lower
cigs may develop across the area with MVFR to IFR possible during
the early morning hours.

&&

.MARINE…
The subtropical ridge is forecast to remain south of the waters
through much of next week. This will keep light west to southwest
flow and minimal SEAS in place over the coastal waters outside of
convection.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Abundant low level moisture along with scattered to NUMEROUS daily
showers and thunderstorms will offset any fire weather concerns at
least into next week.