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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
613 AM EDT Fri Sep 28 2012

For the rest of the day, we are expecting very little change in
the low-level TEMPERATURE structure from Thursday, and thus highs
this afternoon should be fairly similar to yesterday. We went with
a blend of PERSISTENCE, and the MAV/MET. This yields highs 90-91
in most inland spots with a FEW ISOLATED warmer locales. Other
than the latest 28.00z GFS, models are very reluctant to develop
showers today, with the SAME runs of the ECMWF and NAM essentially
dry across the area. POPS derived from the CONVECTION-allowing
models are mostly less than 10%. This is not too surprising with a
general lack of forcing mechanisms and our area being near a
minimum in PWATS per the satellite blended TPW product. This
pocket of drier AIR which was situated northwest of us yesterday,
coincided with very limited CLOUD development and generally dry
weather over MS/AL today. We ended up giving a little weight to
the GFS for PoPs, but expect a mostly dry day.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]…
The weekend will feature an increasingly rainy forecast. The well-
advertised wave that amplifies in the subtropical branch of the
JET stream still looks to be on TRACK to slowly shift east and
affect our area late in the weekend and into early next week. It
still appears AS though a combination of factors will lead to
gradually falling heights over the Arklatex by late Saturday and
into Sunday – (1) concentrated convection in a deep MOISTURE plume
to the ENE of the remnants of `Miriam` over the Mexican plateaus
and west Texas, (2) a gradual eastward development of an upper
level low evident this morning in water vapor satellite loops near
the KS-CO border, -AND- (3) a digging TROUGH that will evolve
into a CUTOFF low over the Great Lakes region. How exactly this
all comes together will determine the precise evolution, and the
eventual track of the surface low that should develop just ahead
of the developing MID-upper level trough. Through 00z Sunday (the
end of the short term period), the surface low should still be
located well west in the NW Gulf of Mexico. Therefore the bulk of
the heavy RAIN and thunderstorms should be mostly west of us this
weekend – particularly Saturday. However, by Sunday, southwesterly
MEAN FLOW from coastal Texas should produce a SURGE of deeper
moisture into the area coincident with the arrival of a surface
FRONT that will slowly be sinking south towards the Gulf coast.
Therefore, a rainier day should be expected on Sunday. Confidence
was HIGH enough in measurable rain in the western half of the area
to bump PoPs further to 70%. Regarding temperatures, we should
still see another fairly warm day on Saturday. However, increasing
cloud cover and rain should restrict the DIURNAL temperature RANGE
on Sunday and limit highs outside of the FL Big Bend to 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday NIGHT through Friday]…
The extended forecast commences centered around the still uncertain
evolution of a low PRESSURE system along the Gulf Coast. The large
scale longwave pattern begins quite amplified highlighted by ridging
over WRN states and a large, deep and digging trough extending from
low NE Conus with axis SWD to another low in AR then SW into ERN
most TX. SHORTWAVE over LWR MS Valley separates from EWD moving AR
low. At the surface, low over Maritime Canada with cold front SSW
across S/CNTRL GA to a low near MOB (EURO) or S of MOB over waters
(GFS) and then into Gulf of MEX. Both place local area in warm
sector but EURO more so with increasing WAA and falling pressures,
in a favorable spot for vertical motion and LIKELY under a deep
moisture plume streaming overhead from Gulf. Both models show large
swath of precip over the area. Key for this forecast period is
resolving the model disagreement As noted above, slower GFS takes
the low further S into our marine area as compared to the faster
EURO which is further N along coast to commence the period. This
latter placement would position  much more of local area in warm
sector increasing the chances for strong to severe WX and heavy
rains THRU Mon. Even less bullish GFS, with favorable indices. For
example, for Tallahassee, GFS 12Z Mon shows around 1860 SL CAPE, 35
BRN, 0-6 KM SHEAR of 30, and 0-3KM HELICITY of around 130 m/s.

Mid/upper trough to remain quasi-STNRY over Lwr MS Valley thru at
least mid week eventually cutting off, and combined with wwd shift
of Atlc RIDGE will serve to slow down ewd progression of low as it
tracks ENE towards SE states and front as it drifts SEWD becoming
quasi-stnry over N FL into mid week, both serving to keep local
region moist. Local flooding concerns and possibly severe wx
parameters will need to be monitored into Mon night depending on
what model verifies. By Tues 12z, GFS surface low still over SRN AL
while EURO across Cntrl AL/GA border. After Wed night, trough lifts
out and opens up with ridge building over N FL while surface
features exit area with relative drying overspreading region from
NW-SE.

As far as POPs, best moisture will remain just NW of CWA and
this event will show sharp NW-SE POP GRADIENT thru early extended
period, then a more uniform POP distribution. Will go with likely
POPs Sun Night, SCT-likely on Mon and generally sct pops Mon night
thru Thurs then WDLY-sct-lo sct rest of period.  Due to expected
clouds and rain through much of the extended, the diurnal
temperature range was decreased.

&&

.AVIATION…[Through 12Z Saturday]
Fog and low clouds have not developed during the pre-DAWN hours
as quickly as expected. This due in part to some cirrus moving SEWD
and over the area. Still think vsbys/cigs will drop to MVFR around
SUNRISE except possibly at KECP. Brief IFR cigs still possible at
KVLD. Any restrictions will lift quickly by mid morning leading to
another VFR remaining so thru 06Z SAT then MVFR CIGS/VSBYS likely to
develop again except at KECP. Convection will be too isolated to
explicitly mention in the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE…
Quiescent conditions expected over the marine areas for the next
couple days with light winds and very limited wave action. With
the approach of the developing Gulf low by Sunday and into Monday,
winds may increase to cautionary levels with gradually building
SEAS. At this time, ADVISORY level conditions are not expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Increasing low-level moisture should preclude red flag conditions
for the next several days. In addition, the approach of a low
pressure system is expected to bring a decent CHANCE of WIDESPREAD
wetting rains by Sunday and Monday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2012

.NEAR TERM [Until 6 PM this evening]…
The large scale split FLOW longwave pattern remains rather flat in
SRN stream with nearly zonal flow over SE region and NRN Gulf of MEX
yielding very weak local steering flow. At surface, HIGH off NE
coast with elongated RIDGE SWWD THRU Carolina coast to N GA/FL with
tight GRADIENT SWD into Gulf of Mex. LOW level flow will circulate
around high and veer to more ELY allowing for a modest influx of
local level MOISTURE, clouds and moderating temperatures. 00Z area
RAOBs show AOA 1 inch PWs but significant dry AIR above H8. POPS
ISOLD N to WDLY SCT S with HI RES guidance showing best CHANCE over
waters. A FEW additional E coast seabreeze showers or tstms may
REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH ERN most counties later today. Highs MID 80 coast, mid-upper
80s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]…
During the short term period. AS a Nrn stream TROUGH amplifies some
as it moves EWD and increasingly impinges on Nrn edge of Srn ridge,
local upper level will become increasing zonal while surface high
weakens and ejects ESE resulting in further VEERING and weakening of
low level winds and a further increase in low level moisture and
HUMIDITY. Still, model soundings show ample low level moisture but
drying aloft to supress most RAIN. So generally isold to wdly sct
mainly AFTN showers or thunderstorms dying with the sun, with
possibly a few more east coast seabreeze induced rain Thurs late
aftn. Highs mid-upper 80s with Fri a tad lower due to increasing
higher clouds. Lows mid 60s inland to around 70 coast. Models in
very good agreemtn and will blend.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday through next Wednesday]…
The major story in the extended RANGE of the forecast appears to
continue to CENTER around an amplification in the upper level flow
pattern over the CONUS this weekend and into early next week.
However, there still is some disagreement amongst the global models
as to how exactly things will evolve. For this forecast package, we
preferred the 25.18z HPC Guidance suite which was based around a
blend of the earlier ECMWF and EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. As a strong
SHORTWAVE trough (currently showing up in the Northwest Territories
in Canada on water vapor satellite) digs south into the Great Lakes
on Friday-Saturday, it should become CUTOFF from the northern branch
of the JET stream and stall through Sunday – before ejecting NE in
advance of another approaching shortwave. This upper level flow
evolution should occur in concert with a surface cold FRONT
gradually sinking south towards the Gulf Coast. Therefore, the
relatively dry weather pattern should eventually yield to greater
rain chances and CLOUD cover with the approach of the front. A
weakness in the ridge or lingering trough axis is LIKELY to linger
in the mid-upper levels into the next week over the central Gulf
coast as the polar jet becomes more zonal near the Canadian border.
For now the timing of the best rain chances looks to be in the
Sunday to Monday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION [through 06z Thursday]…
In general, VFR conditions are going to be the rule for the majority
of the TAF period. However, with continuing easterly flow, it is
possible that we will see some marginal MVFR STRATUS or stratocu
(CIGS 2500-3000 FT) affect TLH and VLD right around SUNRISE or into
the mid-morning hours. NARRE probabilities of MVFR ceilings are as
high as 60-70% in these areas. We may also see an ISOLATED -SHRA at
VLD after 22z.

&&

.MARINE…
Per overnight area buoy and model data, earlier issued SCA for CNTRL
waters and left SCEC for WRN and borderline ern waters until 10 am
EDT. Will use 3 zones for today/tonight`s differences, Otherwise,
the PRESSURE gradient is still expected to weaken late in the week
resulting in lighter winds and SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Increasing low-level moisture and rain chances over the next few
days should limit fire weather concerns.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1014 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2012

HIGH PRESSURE just off the MID Atlantic Coast will keep our region in
an easterly FLOW pattern today. While the airmass is still very dry,
the moderate easterly flow will begin to transport Atlantic MOISTURE
back into the region. This increase in moisture from the east may be
sufficient enough for a FEW ISOLATED showers across the Southeast
Florida Big Bend this afternoon. Thus, will keep a 20 percent
POP for our southeastern zones. It will LIKELY be too dry
elsewhere for any afternoon SHOWER activity. Temperatures will
still be quite warm with highs reaching in the mid and upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]…

In the short term period, steadily increasing moisture in easterly
flow will gradually return RAIN chances to the forecast across much
of the area by Thursday. Drier AIR to the north of the region will
tend to keep a north-south pop GRADIENT with the lowest rain chances
across the northern zones. The big noticeable change through the
period will be moderating nighttime temperatures. Lows will return
to the 60s and afternoon highs will stay warm in the mid and upper
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday NIGHT through Monday]…

The first part of the extended forecast should feature gradually
falling heights in the mid-upper levels of the TROPOSPHERE AS a
TROUGH gradually expands across the eastern CONUS. This should lead
to a transition to slightly cooler temperatures: highs in the mid
80s and lows in the LOW-mid 60s. The lingering influence of a
surface RIDGE, and an expected weak sea-breeze given minimal
land-sea surface TEMPERATURE difference, should keep the area dry
for the most part through Saturday. From Sunday to Tuesday, the
global models differ on the exact evolution of the synoptic pattern,
but they generally all indicate that the southern extent of the
trough will get “pinched off” from the main branch of the JET stream
as strong upper level ridges build into the Plains and up the east
coast. The ECMWF and GFS both show an increase in QPF in our area
(and along the eastern Gulf coast in general) from Sunday and into
early next week, so POPS were nudged up into the 30-40% (“CHANCE“)
RANGE for now.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 14Z Tuesday]…

VFR expected throughout the TAF period with light easterly winds. We
can`t rule out an isolated -SHRA at VLD or perhaps TLH 22-02z as the
Atlantic sea breeze advances westward, but the PROBABILITY is too
low to warrant a mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.MARINE…

Easterly flow will continue across the marine area today with slight
increases to just below cautionary levels tonight and Wednesday
night. The pressure gradient will weaken late in the week resulting
in lighter winds and SEAS by the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…

Afternoon minimum RH may FALL below 35% in the Florida Panhandle
west of the Apalachicola River today. However, other criteria should
not meet red flag thresholds. Beyond that, gradually increasing
low-level moisture should limit fire weather concerns.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
931 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2012

HIGH PRESSURE will build in today across the Tennessee Valley AS a
cold FRONT continues pushing southward across far Southern Florida.
A much drier airmass will continue to overspread the area with only
slightly cooler temperatures. Highs are expected to be in the MID to
upper 80s across the region with a light northerly breeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]…

No sensible weather is expected through the short term period. Model
guidance is all fairly consistent in the high pressure area across
the Tennessee Valley moving eastward to the Mid Atlantic States
inducing an easterly FLOW across our region tonight and into
Tuesday. This will result in a gradual moistening trend starting
tonight which will primarily serve to moderate nighttime
temperatures. Some of the guidance hints at the potential for some
light showers returning Wednesday afternoon during peak daytime
heating, but this potential looks too LOW to include in the forecast
at this time.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday NIGHT through Sunday]…

The high pressure RIDGE axis will SET up to the north of the area
through most of the extended period. This will put most of the CWA
in a moist and light easterly flow pattern. Expect that routine
afternoon showers and overnight CONVECTION over the coastal waters
will be the result of this set. The previous forecast for this
period reflected this well, so only minor tweaks to the forecast
where made.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 14Z Monday]…

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours as a high
pressure system works into the area from the north. This high
pressure will also keep winds light and from a general northeasterly
direction all day Monday. VFR conditions will prevail on Tuesday and
into Wednesday before showers and thunderstorms are expected to
return beyond Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE…

Northeast winds around 15 knots will subside to 5 to 10 knots
later this afternoon. Winds will gradually shift to the east by
Tuesday. While some SURGE in the nighttime winds are expected,
conditions are expected to remain below cautionary levels through
the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…

Very dry conditions are expected to persist through at least Tuesday
as a surface high pressure system continues to push into the area
from the north. This will drive afternoon RH values into the lower
20s today and lower 30s on Tuesday. ERC values in the western
Florida panhandle are over the Red Flag threshold of 20. Yesterday
morning there appeared to be some indications that DISPERSION values
may approach criteria as well. However, careful analysis of this
evenings upper AIR SOUNDING and new model data would seem to suggest
that lighter winds and mixing HEIGHT around 6kft will keep
dispersion values in the 60-70 RANGE. This will keep us below Red
Flag criteria for the Panhandle. Will mention unusually dry
conditions in the Fire Weather Forecast to highlight that some fire
issues may occur.

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
737 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

…A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA…SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA…AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134- GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-211400-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FG.Y.0030.120921T1137Z-120921T1400Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON- COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE… TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE… SWEETWATER…CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY… FREEPORT…SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…
PORT SAINT JOE…APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…
SAINT MARKS…KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…SUWANNEE…
GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON… MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…
SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER…ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA… DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM… MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS…NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…
BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE…QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND 737 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012 /637 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012/

a dense fog advisory is in effect until 10 AM EDT /9 AM cdt/ this morning…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a dense fog advisory, which is in effect until 10 AM EDT /9 AM cdt/ this morning for southeast alabama, southwest and south central
georgia, and the florida panhandle.

* visibility, widespread half mile visibilities, with scattered locations falling to a quarter mile or less.

* impacts, dense fog will create hazardous driving conditions during the morning commute.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to less than one quarter mile. if driving, slow down, use your low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

&&

Weather for Bay…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… BAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… * UNTIL 630 PM CDT * AT 542 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF TYNDALL AFB…OR NEAR BEACON BEACH…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PANAMA CITY…CALLAWAY…SPRINGFIELD…HILAND PARK AND LYNN HAVEN

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Weather for Jackson…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… EASTERN HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… * UNTIL 615 PM CDT * AT 526 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BONIFAY…OR NEAR WHITEHEAD CROSSROADS…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CARYVILLE…POPLAR HEAD…JOHNSON CROSSROAD…HULAW…BETHLEHEM… HOLMES COUNTY AIRPORT…MILLER CROSSROADS…NOMA…ARDS CROSSROADS…HOLLAND CROSSROADS…ESTO…NOMA JUNCTION…TENDIL CROSSING…GRACEVILLE…COBB CROSSROADS…ELLAVILLE…CAMPBELLTON AND BROWNTOWN.

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Weather for Washington…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… EASTERN HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… * UNTIL 615 PM CDT * AT 526 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BONIFAY…OR NEAR WHITEHEAD CROSSROADS…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CARYVILLE…POPLAR HEAD…JOHNSON CROSSROAD…HULAW…BETHLEHEM… HOLMES COUNTY AIRPORT…MILLER CROSSROADS…NOMA…ARDS CROSSROADS…HOLLAND CROSSROADS…ESTO…NOMA JUNCTION…TENDIL CROSSING…GRACEVILLE…COBB CROSSROADS…ELLAVILLE…CAMPBELLTON AND BROWNTOWN.

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Weather for Holmes…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… EASTERN HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… * UNTIL 615 PM CDT * AT 526 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BONIFAY…OR NEAR WHITEHEAD CROSSROADS…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CARYVILLE…POPLAR HEAD…JOHNSON CROSSROAD…HULAW…BETHLEHEM… HOLMES COUNTY AIRPORT…MILLER CROSSROADS…NOMA…ARDS CROSSROADS…HOLLAND CROSSROADS…ESTO…NOMA JUNCTION…TENDIL CROSSING…GRACEVILLE…COBB CROSSROADS…ELLAVILLE…CAMPBELLTON AND BROWNTOWN.

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Weather for Walton…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… WESTERN HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… EASTERN WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… * UNTIL 515 PM CDT * AT 426 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTH OF DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… OR NEAR FREEPORT…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ROCK HILL…EUCHEEANNA…SHADY GROVE…ARGYLE…CENTER RIDGE…DOUGLASS CROSSROAD…PLEASANT HILL…UNION…WESTVILLE…PROSPERITY…PONCE DE LEON…HUDSON…HICKORY HILL…GRITNEY…CERROGORDO AND ARRANT SETTLEMENT.

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Weather for Holmes…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… WESTERN HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… EASTERN WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… * UNTIL 515 PM CDT * AT 426 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTH OF DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… OR NEAR FREEPORT…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ROCK HILL…EUCHEEANNA…SHADY GROVE…ARGYLE…CENTER RIDGE…DOUGLASS CROSSROAD…PLEASANT HILL…UNION…WESTVILLE…PROSPERITY…PONCE DE LEON…HUDSON…HICKORY HILL…GRITNEY…CERROGORDO AND ARRANT SETTLEMENT.

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Weather for Jackson…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… NORTHEASTERN BAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… * UNTIL 145 PM CDT * AT 1255 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BROAD BRANCH…AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FRINK…SAUNDERS…CLARKSVILLE…FOUNTAIN…MOOSE POND…CHASON… BETTS…CAMPS HEAD…CENTER LAKE…WILLIS…WHITE POND…COMPASS LAKE…RIDGETOP…SIMSVILLE…ROUND LAKE AND ALFORD

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Weather for Calhoun…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… NORTHEASTERN BAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… * UNTIL 145 PM CDT * AT 1255 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BROAD BRANCH…AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FRINK…SAUNDERS…CLARKSVILLE…FOUNTAIN…MOOSE POND…CHASON… BETTS…CAMPS HEAD…CENTER LAKE…WILLIS…WHITE POND…COMPASS LAKE…RIDGETOP…SIMSVILLE…ROUND LAKE AND ALFORD

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Weather for Bay…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… NORTHEASTERN BAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA… * UNTIL 145 PM CDT * AT 1255 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BROAD BRANCH…AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FRINK…SAUNDERS…CLARKSVILLE…FOUNTAIN…MOOSE POND…CHASON… BETTS…CAMPS HEAD…CENTER LAKE…WILLIS…WHITE POND…COMPASS LAKE…RIDGETOP…SIMSVILLE…ROUND LAKE AND ALFORD

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Streaking Clouds at 6pm Friday, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam.

Sent from my HTC Rezound.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…
TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.6N 46.6W 12/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 865 NM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING WNW AT 15 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 43W-49W. CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 13N-15N BETWEEN 44W-49W AND FROM
22N-25N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE IS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
14N31W TO 5N25W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH A SWATH OF DRIER AIR
UNDERCUTTING THE WAVE NEAR 8N AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE N OF
8N.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 15N17W TO 16N19W BEING DISRUPTED BY THE PRESENCE OF
TROPICAL STORM NADINE. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N52W TO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10-16N E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER W
AFRICA.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AN
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E U.S. INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AT
12/0900 UTC OVER THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 26N87W TO INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 87W-95W. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE SW GULF IS ENHANCING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90
NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 23N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THU E OF 85W AND CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD INLAND W OF
85W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NE THROUGH THU NIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR NW GULF SAT AND
SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA…
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC DOMINATES THE N CARIBBEAN
WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE SW WATERS. CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W
OF 76W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ALONG 10N
ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N BETWEEN 79W-84W. A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EXTENDING
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE
USHERING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 70W AND S OF 13N E OF 66W. OTHERWISE
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL STORM NADINE IN THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E U.S. INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N56W EXTENDING
ALONG 27N61W TO 25N65W WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT THROUGH THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER
THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
ACTIVITY WITHIN 60 NM S AND WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER
THE W ATLC W OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 20N61W
EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND NNE TO NEAR
26N56W PRECEDING TROPICAL STORM NADINE. BROAD UPPER LOW IS OVER
THE NE ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR
32N20W EXTENDING ALONG 20N27W TO 31N35W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE FRONT.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE E TROPICAL
ATLC FROM 14N-26N E OF 40W AND TO THE NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM
NADINE. WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT. TROPICAL STORM NADINE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLC IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NW DIRECTION THROUGH THU
AS IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE BEFORE IT TURNS IN A
NE DIRECTION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC…AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN
TO T2.5 FROM TAFB AND T2.0 FROM SAB…SUPPORTING THE DESIGNATION OF
THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD…OR 275/9 KT.  THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD BE TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON AS IT
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE…WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AFRICA WESTWARD TO 50W.  THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE BEING ERODED BY A
LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OF THE
AZORES…AND THE DEPRESSION SHOULD RESPOND BY TURNING NORTHWARD BY
DAY 4 AND NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT UNTIL ABOUT 72 HOURS WHEN THE ECMWF MODEL BEGINS TO LAG
BEHIND THE OTHER MODELS…BUT THIS IS COMPENSATED FOR IN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS BY THE FASTER GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST INDICATES A TRACK LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER SCENARIO…
AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BORDERED BY DRY
SAHARAN AIR TO ITS NORTH AND WEST…BUT THE CYCLONE IS ALSO DRAWING
IN MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH.  SINCE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER IS SCANT…IT MIGHT TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT CAN MIX OUT SOME OF THE DRY AIR.  SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO…AND STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST UP TO THAT TIME.  STRENGTHENING
COULD BE ARRESTED IN 4-5 DAYS WHEN THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
WESTERLY SHEAR.  THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY
MODELS AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…WITH THE SHIPS
AND LGEM MODELS BEING 20-25 KT DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER.  SINCE
THE LGEM MODEL…WHICH IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO…IS DESIGNED TO
BETTER HANDLE CHANGES IN THE SHEAR AT THE LONGER FORECAST TIMES…
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED IN
THE FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

HURRICANE MICHAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 33.5N 45.2W AT 10/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 925 NM W OF THE AZORES MOVING W AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN 42W-46W.

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 36.5N 60.8N AT 10/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 700 NM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING
NNE AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA
AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
CONVECTION IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF LESLIE WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 32N58W
TO 36N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 31N-41W BETWEEN 57W-65W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM
23N33W TO A 1008 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
15N35W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE/LOW ARE ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF VERY DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
15N-21N BETWEEN 36W-40W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WNW AT 13 TO 17 KT.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE NOTED.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 17N16W CONTINUING ALONG 15N24W 14N30W THROUGH THE 1008
MB NEAR 11N40W TO 9N51W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
EXTENDING FROM 18N45W TO 13N39W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 32W-36W AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 56W-64W INCLUDING
TRINIDAD/TOBAGO AND GRENADA.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE US E OF 100W DIPPING S OVER THE N
GULF OF MEXICO TO 28N AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT
10/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY AS CROSSES FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPA
CONTINUING W ALONG 27N90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS N TO NEAR
KEY WEST FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 75/90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 23N W OF 95W AND
WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 21N93W TO 20N95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE W PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WHILE THE E PORTION WILL DRIFT S
REACHING S FLORIDA TO 27N90W BY EARLY WED BEFORE DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS WED NIGHT AND THU. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NE WED THROUGH THU BEFORE
WEAKENING FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA…
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 19N87W COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC TO
OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA OVER S PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N E OF 81W TO
INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WILL
AFFECT TROPICAL ATLC PASSAGES AND WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY THROUGH
EARLY TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WAKE OF THE W ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…
HURRICANE MICHAEL AND TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ARE N OF 32N. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S. W OF
73W DIPPING S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 28N AND SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT AT 10/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N72W
EXTENDING TO 28N80W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT CROSSES
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 77W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM
NW OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 22N58W ALONG 27N55W TO 32N54W BEING
DRAWN INTO TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE E ATLC AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N30W ALONG 28N39W TO A 1017
MB HIGH JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N70W. SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATES SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM
15N-27N E OF 32W. LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM 32N69W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING E FROM 32N61W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W
TUE AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT SLOWLY S WEAKENING FROM 32N60W TO NEAR
MIAMI WED MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N THROUGH
FRI.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

THE CENTER OF CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LESLIE AT 06/0300 UTC IS
NEAR 26.2N 62.5W. LESLIE IS ABOUT 384 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA. LESLIE IS MOVING NORTHWARD 2 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 22 NM FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 169 NM FROM THE CENTER.
SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT BERMUDA…THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NORTHWARD…THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS… PUERTO RICO…AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS MAY
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY…
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO 27N
BETWEEN 61W AND 63W…SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN
50W AND 75W. 

THE CENTER OF CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE MICHAEL AT 06/0500 UTC
IS NEAR 29.4N 42.0W. MICHAEL IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 6 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS.
PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 13 NM FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 40W
AND 43W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N45W TO 30N48W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W 31N50W 32N58W 33N62W.

A NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ABOUT 55 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL BORDER OF
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON IF IT IS
NECESSARY. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 28.5N89W…ABOUT 35 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

NO TROPICAL WAVE IS EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.

…THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
16N17W TO 18N22W…TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
15N30W…TO 13N40W AND 11N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N46W…
TO 12N54W AND 12N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W AND FROM 16N
TO 18N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W…ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM
10N TO 16N TO THE EAST OF 40W…FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN BETWEEN
40W AND 50W…AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

…DISCUSSION…

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN…TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS…
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO…

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N74W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…TO A 28N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST…THROUGH 22N79W IN
CUBA…TO 19N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA…TO 16N85W NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. A SEPARATE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES IN MEXICO NEAR
23N103W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N
TO 29N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W…BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN
74W AND 81W FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO…

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST STATES…FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO
GEORGIA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA…AND THEN DISSIPATING JUST BEFORE ENTERING THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT NOW APPEARS THAT
THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NOT SUPPORTED
BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. PART OF THE
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
IS RESPONDING TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N78W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN PUSHING
SOUTHWARD AS A RESULT OF THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW…TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…
THROUGH 28N78W…28N81W IN FLORIDA…INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO…TO 25N95W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT2…AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST…MIAOFFNT4…FOR DETAILS ABOUT A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT STARTS NEAR 29N88W…MOVES TO 1007 MB
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 28N88W IN 24 HOURS…AND MOVES
TO 1006 MB TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 28N89W IN 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF THE 33N74W 16N85W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 33N74W 16N85W TROUGH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA…10N80W JUST TO
THE NORTH OF PANAMA…BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N83W 14N77W
13N74W…AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA AND 84W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

.PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT2…AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST…MIAOFFNT3…FOR DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N22W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 29N22W CYCLONIC CENTER AND
TO 26N21W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 26N21W TO 27N34W.
A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N34W TO A 27N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER…TO 20N40W 17N42W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IS WITHIN 280 TO 400 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 27N34W 17N42W PART
OF THE TROUGH.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N70W
THROUGH 28N78W…28N81W IN FLORIDA…INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO…TO 25N95W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N33W
TO 25N36W AND 14N52W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS…MIAHSFAT2
FOR DETAILS ABOUT HURRICANE LESLIE AND HURRICANE MICHAEL.

Weather for Santa Rosa…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… NORTHERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA… NORTHWESTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA… SOUTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA… NORTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA… * UNTIL 445 PM CDT * AT 341 PM CDT…A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF ATMORE TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ATMORE TO FLOMATON…AND MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE… POARCH CREEK RESERVATION… FLOMATON… MOLINO… CENTURY… I65 AND CR 47… I65 AND AL 59… I65 AND AL 287… I65 AND AL 225… BAY MINETTE… THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 30 AND 63.

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Weather for Coffee…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… COFFEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… * UNTIL 945 PM CDT * AT 852 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH OF ELBA…OR NEAR BLUFF SPRING…AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR… 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF ELBA BY 915 PM CDT… NEW BROCKTON BY 930 PM CDT…

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Weather for Coffee…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… COFFEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… * UNTIL 900 PM CDT * AT 834 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELBA…OR NEAR GLENWOOD…AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR… 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ELBA BY 855 PM CDT… 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW BROCKTON BY 900 PM CDT…

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Weather for Dale…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… CENTRAL DALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… * UNTIL 345 PM CDT * AT 308 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT RUCKER…OR NEAR HOOPER STAGE FIELD…AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OZARK…NEWTON…PINCKARD AND MIDLAND CITY

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URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
450 AM EDT SAT SEP 1 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>014-016>019-026-027-GAZ120>123-125-142>145- 155>159-012200-
/O.EXT.KTAE.HT.Y.0003.120901T1900Z-120901T2200Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-GADSDEN- LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-QUITMAN-CLAY- RANDOLPH-DOUGHERTY-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE… TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE… SWEETWATER…CRAWFORDVILLE…GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…
CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY… ALBANY…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA… PELHAM…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE… QUITMAN
450 AM EDT SAT SEP 1 2012 /350 AM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012/

The heat advisory is now in effect from 3 PM EDT /2 PM cdt/
this afternoon to 6 PM EDT /5 PM cdt/ this evening…

* temperature, maximum air temperatures 94 to 96 degrees.

* heat index, maximum heat indices of 104 to 106 degrees.

* impacts, potential for heat exhaustion and heat stroke is increased with any outdoor activity.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a heat advisory means that a period of heat indices in the middle 100S is expected.the combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will increase the likelihood of heat illnesses. drink plenty of non-alcoholic beverages to stay hydrated if you must be outside and take frequent breaks in an air-conditioned room or in the shade.

&&

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