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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
634 AM EDT Wed Oct 31 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…

The far reaches of the remnants of Sandy will continue to provide
the local area with BREEZY conditions today. Expect frequent gusts
up to 25 mph for most locations. Otherwise, today will be slightly
warmer than yesterday with HIGH temperatures reaching the 70
degree mark area wide. No RAIN is expected today.

The continued strong winds, now shifting to a more westerly
direction will increase surf along westward facing Panhandle
beaches. The elevated winds and increased surf will create
dangerous rip CURRENT conditions along Bay and Gulf counties.
Reference our Coastal Hazard Message for more information.

Overnight, a piece of SHORTWAVE energy will rotate around the base
of the large eastern U.S. LOW PRESSURE and may generate SCATTERED
showers and an ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM or two over our coastal
waters. Land areas should remain dry with clouds clearing, and
lows bottoming out in the lower to middle 40s across Alabama and
Georgia, and near 50 degrees across inland areas of north Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]…

Through the end of the week the east coast TROUGH will gradually pull north, and surface high pressure will build into the region. The main effect from this will be a gradual warming trend with both afternoon and overnight temperatures. Expect highs to climb through the middle and upper 70s, with overnight low slowly climbing to the 50 degree mark by Friday NIGHT. No rain is
expected both Thursday and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]…

The latest available GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement,
showing the next cold FRONT passage (albeit slow) Sunday night and
Monday. The synoptic low level FLOW leading up to this frontal
passage does not look very conducive for a major influx of deep
layer MOISTURE and/or INSTABILITY, so the POP for this period
(20-30%) is not that far above CLIMATOLOGY. Temperatures will be
well above average through Sunday, especially during the daytime
when highs will REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH the lower to MID 80s. Temperatures will return
to near average behind the cold front Tuesday and Wednesday, with
Monday being somewhat of a transition day.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12 UTC Thursday]…

Updated at 0630 EDT-
The short wave moving southeast over our region this morning has
some areas of broken cigs, but these VFR cigs are up around 25k
FT. Winds will increase to 8 to 14 KT by late this morning or
early afternoon, with occasional gusts of 20 to 25 KT. Winds will
become light by SUNSET. VIS will be unlimited through at least
12 UTC Thursday, and cigs will be unlimited AS well, after the VFR
cigs move east later this morning.

&&

.MARINE…

Strong winds generated by the pressure difference between the
remnants of Sandy and high pressure in the Gulf will diminish
gradually as what was Sandy weakens and moves north. However,
Cautionary conditions are expected to continue through tonight
before winds and SEAS go CALM by Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…

This will be one of those days when conditions will be close to our
various local Red Flag criteria. After coordinating with our
surrounding offices, we decided to drop the watches for GA & AL and
keep the WARNING for all our FL zones for today. The modest
moistening trend should prevent AL from meeting critical conditions,
and the fuel moisture is not quite low enough in south GA. We will
issue a Fire WX WATCH for all our FL counties for Thursday, as
conditions will be similar to today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY

Since there has been no heavy rain in our region for several
weeks, and since rain is unlikely for the next several days, river
stages will remain below action levels.

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1016 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

…GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS…

.A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER TODAY AS WE WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER…AND POST-TROPICAL SANDY IN THE INTERIOR MID ATLANTIC STATES. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECORDED IN MANY SPOTS BY MID MORNING…AND THOSE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO PERHAPS 25 MPH. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY REACH 35 TO 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM.

ALZ066-067-069-FLZ011-016-017-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>159-302300- /O.NEW.KTAE.WI.Y.0012.121030T1416Z-121030T2300Z/
DALE-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-GADSDEN-LEON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH- CALHOUN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…OZARK…FORT RUCKER…DALEVILLE… HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY… COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE… MALONE…SNEADS…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE…TALLAHASSEE…
SPRING HILL…GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN… ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…
LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER…ASHBURN…TIFTON…
FITZGERALD…OCILLA…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…
NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS…
NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE… QUITMAN
1016 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 /916 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012/

Wind advisory in effect until 7 PM EDT /6 PM cdt/ this
evening…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a wind advisory, which is in effect until 7 PM EDT /6 PM cdt/ this
evening.

* timing: gusty winds will begin late this morning, with the strongest wind gusts likely in the early to mid afternoon.

* winds: sustained 20 to 25 mph. gusts up to 35 to 40 mph.

* impacts: winds of this strength can make driving high profile vehicles difficult. they can also knock over unsecured outdoor items such as garbage cans and patio furniture, and blow down small tree limbs.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a wind advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. use extra caution.

&&

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY AT 29/1200 UTC IS NEAR 36.8N
71.1W. SANDY IS ABOUT 230 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NEW JERSEY…AND ABOUT 270 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK
CITY. SANDY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 75 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC…AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 35N TO 40N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N TO
42N BETWEEN 57W AND 81W IN SOUTH CAROLINA…IN A CLOSED 1004 MB
ISOBAR.

…THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU
NEAR 12N16W 8N19W 8N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO 8N33W
7N40W TO 7N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N38.5W AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 41W
AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 56W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
41W/42W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N…BREAKING UP THE ITCZ. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W
AND 50W.

…DISCUSSION…

THE GULF OF MEXICO…

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN IS TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH THAT SURROUNDS HURRICANE SANDY…IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOVING FROM MEXICO
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…MIXING WITH THE EARLIER COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN SPANNING THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE LAST 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT ENGULFS HURRICANE SANDY AT THE MOMENT
SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-MOVING DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N76W…ACROSS ABACO ISLAND AND
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS…ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W…TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA…TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF MEXICO NEAR 17N92W. A DEFINITE BREAK EXISTS IN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE STATIONARY FRONT
STARTS NEAR 18N98W AND IT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD TO 24N100W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 91W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO
20N96W IN COASTAL MEXICO…THROUGH NORTHERN GUATEMALA…
TO 16N81W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT2…AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST…MIAOFFNT4…FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ENGULFS HURRICANE
SANDY PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS…ACROSS JAMAICA…TO 15N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N70W TO 16N76W TO 10N80W
AT THE PANAMA COAST.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR…20N70W 10N80W.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N70W 9N76W 4N81W. THE
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH…THAT IS ALONG 13N73W 7N77W 3N79W.
THE TROUGH SPANS THE AREA FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA…INTO COLOMBIA…TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE
WEST OF COLOMBIA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT2…AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST…MIAOFFNT3…FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
WEST OF 84W…INCLUDING YUCATAN CHANNEL…FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N39W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N40W. NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
AND 50W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N34W TO 25N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 25W AND 34W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 17N
BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.

ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 53W AND 65W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH THAT SURROUNDS HURRICANE SANDY…AND UNDER THE
AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N54W.

A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N24W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
11N TO 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 31W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT2…FOR DETAILS
ABOUT HURRICANE SANDY. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH
A 986 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N40W AT THE START OF
THE FORECAST…MOVING TO 990 MB NEAR 35N35W AT 24 HOURS…AND
MOVING TO 993 MB NEAR 35N32W AT 48 HOURS. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 15 FEET IN AREAS AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
405 AM EDT Mon Oct 29 2012

.NEAR TERM [Today]…
The 02 UTC regional surface analysis showed a cold FRONT southeast
of our forecast area, and an unusually tight PRESSURE GRADIENT (with
above-NORMAL WIND speeds) owing to the steep pressure difference
between HURRICANE “Sandy” (off the MID Atlantic Coast) and a rather
strong ANTICYCLONE over the Central Plains. Vapor imagery and upper
AIR data showed a broad longwave TROUGH over the Southeast U.S.,
including a short wave over our region and Hurricane Sandy, which
will essentially merge with this cold core system over the next day
or two. With a deep, dry airmass in place, sinking air, and cold air
ADVECTION, we expect a SUNNY (but relatively cool) day. Highs will
only REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH the mid 60s (about 10 degrees below CLIMATOLOGY). The
consensus of the latest local WRF, 4km inner next NAM, GFS, and
“normal” adjustments to the sustained wind speeds indicate the
potential for wind gusts of 30 KT or more this afternoon, especially
in south GA & AL where we have a Wind ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Wednesday]…
The large, deep layer CYCLONE (which will include the remnants of
“Sandy”) will move little Tuesday and Wednesday, but will gradually
begin to fill. Tuesday promises to be nearly a carbon copy (or “copy
& paste” in today`s parlance) of today, with unusually strong
northwest winds and relatively cool temperatures. The latest
GFS/NAM/ECMWF MOS are all quite cold for Tuesday morning, with lows
just above freezing at our normally coldest inland sites. However,
the HIGH resolution NWP guidance is about 10 degrees warmer. While
that is normally the case in the cool season, the high-res guidance
has shown some skill when forecasting LOW temperatures on mornings
when the boundary layer winds remain elevated, AS we expect in this
case. We blended the MOS with the high-res NWP to get lows that are
in the upper 30s. With the elevated wind speeds and dry air, FROST
appears unlikely at this time. Highs on Tuesday will once again only
reach the mid 60s. Wind gusts may once again approach local wind
advisory criteria for portions of our forecast area.

After another relatively cool morning Wednesday (with lows in the
upper 30s to lower 40s inland), a warming trend will begin as
500 MB heights rise about 10 dm between Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs
will return to near average (lower 70s), and winds will be
considerably weaker. For our first “guess” at Trick-or-treat time,
we expect FAIR skies, West wind 5 MPH or less, and temperatures
falling from the mid 60s to upper 50s- which would be a fairly
accommodating evening for most costumes.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday NIGHT through next Monday]…
A rather uneventful period is expected from the end of the week
through the weekend. The pattern will become more progressive with
the large east coast trough moving eastward and an upper level RIDGE
building into the area for the weekend. Dry conditions are expected
with gradually moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06z Tuesday]…
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. WINDY
conditions are LIKELY with northwest winds gusting to between 25 and
30 knots through the day before diminishing after SUNSET. The
strongest winds are expected to be at KDHN and KABY.

&&

.MARINE…
Advisory conditions continue, with even a FEW gusts approaching
GALE force. The various MOS, global, and high-res NWP guidance are
in good agreement in forecasting advisory conditions persisting
until about 18 UTC Tuesday, which is about the time the waves will
drop below 7 FT in the offshore waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
The combination of gusty winds and very dry air overspreading the
region will create red flag conditions over all of our northwest
Florida and southeast Alabama areas this afternoon and likely again
on Tuesday afternoon. Red flag conditions are also possible on
Wednesday before the airmass begins to slowly moisten while winds
decrease. The southwest Georgia zones do not have their 6 percent
fuel MOISTURE requirement for red flag warnings, although it will be
dry and windy there as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Since there has been no heavy RAIN in our region for several
weeks, and since rain is unlikely for the next several days, river
stages will remain below action levels.

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
334 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

…WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING…

.UNUSUALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS LARGE HURRICANE SANDY APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST…AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>145-292300-
/O.EXT.KTAE.WI.Y.0011.121029T1400Z-121029T2300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…GEORGETOWN…
FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON… LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER… ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY… COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM
334 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 /234 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012/

Wind advisory now in effect from 10 AM EDT /9 AM cdt/ this
morning to 7 PM EDT /6 PM cdt/ this evening…

* timing: daytime hours, strongest in the late morning to mid afternoon.

* winds: sustained northwest 20 to 25 mph. frequent gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

* impacts: winds of this strength can make driving high profile vehicles difficult. they can also knock over unsecured outdoor items such as garbage cans and patio furniture, and blow down small tree limbs or newly planted shrubs.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a wind advisory means that sustained winds or frequent gusts of 26 to 39 mph are expected. winds this strong can make driving difficult especially for high profile vehicles. use extra
caution.

&&

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
228 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

…GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON…

.THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GET SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HURRICANE SANDY BECOMES POST TROPICAL AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND TO THE NORTH OF A BLAKELY TO FITZGERALD LINE IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.

ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>145-290830-
/O.NEW.KTAE.WI.Y.0011.121029T1300Z-121030T0000Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…GEORGETOWN…
FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON… LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER… ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY… COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM
228 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 /128 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012/

Wind advisory in effect from 9 AM EDT /8 AM cdt/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM cdt/ monday…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a wind advisory, which is in effect from 9 AM EDT /8 AM cdt/ to 8 pm EDT /7 PM cdt/ monday.

* timing: daytime hours, with the strongest winds in the late morning to mid afternoon.

* winds: sustained 20 to 25 mph. frequent gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

* impacts: winds of this strength can make driving high profile vehicles difficult. they can also knock over unsecured outdoor items, or blow down some small tree limbs.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a wind advisory means that sustained winds or frequent gusts of 26 to 39 mph are expected. winds this strong can make driving difficult especially for high profile vehicles. use extra caution.

&&

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 26.4N 76.9W AT 26/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 13 NM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND ABOUT 417 NM S-SE OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70
KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 69W-79W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
21N66W TO 27N71W. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N42W TO 10N41W MOVING W 5-10
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF
14.5N42.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 38W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N48W TO 10N48W MOVING W 5-10
KT. A SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THE LOW IS NO LONGER EVIDENT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF
15N46W.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W 5N24W TO 5N31W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N43W 11N58W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 33W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 19W-30W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR FLORIDA THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE SANDY
BRINGING WIND AND RAIN TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…PLEASE SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W
GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING ACROSS MEXICO. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS. A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MOBILE ALABAMA INTO THE E GULF ALONG
25N86W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS OVER THE SW GULF WITH MOISTURE MOVING W
OVER THE SE GULF COMPLIMENTS OF HURRICANE SANDY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 27N E OF 85W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS OF HURRICANE SANDY. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER…SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE NW GULF SHORTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. LARGE FIELD OF
STRONG N TO NE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY IN THE W
ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE E GULF TO 90W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT THROUGH SUN AS SANDY MOVES N. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TODAY REACHING FROM THE W
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS SAT AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO N
YUCATAN PENINSULA MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA…
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING ARE THE REMNANT RAINS AND WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY…PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W TO OVER HONDURAS
NEAR 15N87W COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE DRY AIR THAT
COVERS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN THEN N ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TOWARD HURRICANE SANDY. A
SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN PANAMA/COSTA RICA TO E CUBA/HISPANIOLA ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 65W-76W AND FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN
72W-82W. HURRICANE SANDY OVER N BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION. STRONG SW WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND BETWEEN JAMAICA…CUBA…AND HAITI WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
TODAY THROUGH SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL SUN THEN STALL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE SANDY MOVING ALONG
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS…PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE
UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 24N59W THEN NW TO OVER NORTH
CAROLINA GENERATING AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N W
OF 63W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA…AND
FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 59W-63W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
THE N/CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N50W
ALONG 31N58W TO 32N67W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 25N24W. HURRICANE
SANDY WILL MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS NW AND N
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE NE FRI NIGHT CONTINUING
OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EARLY SUN.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 AM EDT Fri Oct 26 2012

.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]…Although HURRICANE Sandy will
remain well off to our east (over the Atlantic to the east of the FL
Peninsula), it still is expected to have some peripheral effects
over the CWA in combination with the approaching Upper Level TROF
and SFC Cold FRONT. This will be primarily due to Sandy`s large size
and expanding WIND field, along with a tightening PRESSURE GRADIENT
between Sandy and the approaching front. Also, the Upper Trof to our
W will help to steer Sandy to the N then NE AS it crosses our
LATITUDE on SAT. and Sat. NIGHT. For Today, the eastern half of the
CWA is already under a CIRRUS canopy from Sandy (which should reduce
the FOG and LOW CIG chances early this morning), and this should
continue to expand today. Also, winds will continue to increase in
magnitude over land and sea (with SCA conditions over much of the
marine area), and across the eastern half of the CWA sustained winds
of 15 mph, with gusts over 20mph, are expected later today. Finally,
although a brief SHOWER cannot be ruled out over the eastern 1/3 of
the region and the coastal waters today and tonight, could not
justify going any higher than silent 10 POPS at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]…With the pressure gradient
expected to be at its strongest on Saturday (due to Sandy to the
east and the approaching front to the west), sustained winds of 15
to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph are now FCST for much of the CWA.
Therefore, if the winds get any stronger than currently expected,
may need to consider a Wind ADVISORY. Also, the best chances for a
shower through the period will be over eastern portions of the CWA
on Saturday AFTN, with 20% PoPs PROGGED just to our east and silent
10s over our area. Then, after the weakening front (which is still
expected to lose its forerunning showers and storms) pushes through
the region on Sat. night, the much cooler and drier AIR will begin
to filter in from the NW. However, the more significant effects from
the very cool air will be felt from Sunday night into the middle of
next week, where both HIGH and Low TEMPS will to levels well below
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Friday]…A chilly airmass is
expected to dominate the extended forecast with  northwesterly FLOW
and high pressure nosing into the area in the WAKE of the large east
coast STORM. Highs could remain in the 60s early next week with lows
dipping well down into the 40s with some upper 30s also possible.
The airmass is expected to remain dry with PoPs less than 20 percent
through the period.
&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 06Z Saturday] Easterly flow will increase MOISTURE slightly
over the eastern half of the forecast area with the possibility of
some MVFR conditions at KTLH and IFR conditions at KABY and KVLD for
a FEW hours this morning. This is expected to be mainly in the form
of low cigs, but some patchy VIS restrictions are possible as well.
As daytime mixing commences, VFR conditions are expected to return
by MID-morning, but gusty NE winds will also develop with a
relatively tight pressure gradient in place due in part to Sandy off
the Atlantic coast.

&&

.MARINE…Although today may begin with only cautionary conditions
across the waters, increasing winds through today and tonight will
result in Small Craft Advisory levels to gradually overspread the
Coastal Waters from east to west. These elevated winds and SEAS are
now expected to linger into Saturday night, before diminishing back
just a bit late Saturday night into Sunday, so will lengthen the SCA
until 06Z on Sunday morning and spread it further to the west as
well. However, this may not be the end of the rough maritime
conditions, with another bout of SCA conditions expected by later on
Sunday and lingering into Tuesday. For the time being, will hold off
on a second Advisory until the timing of these conditions is more
certain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…In general, red flag conditions are not expected
through Saturday. However, fire danger is expected to elevate on
Monday and Tuesday behind a cold front with much lower RH expected
along with gusty northwest winds and dry fuels. Red flag conditions
look LIKELY at that time for at least portions of northwest Florida
and perhaps other areas as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…There are no hydrological concerns or significant river
rises expected over the next week across the area.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 75.9W AT 25/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 9 NM N-NW OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND ABOUT 44 NM W-NW
OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MOVING N-NEW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB. RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE HURRICANE SANDY HAS
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS MAKES SANDY A STRONG CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. HURRICANE
SANDY MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 0525 UTC W OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER OVER
THE SW QUADRANT INCLUDING E JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN
74W-79W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W TO
15N74W…FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 70W-74W…AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 19N66W TO 24N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE GREATER
ANTILLES FROM 70W-78W. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA… HAITI…THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM TONY IS CENTERED NEAR 30.1N 40.3W AT 25/0300 OR
ABOUT 815 NM W-SW OF THE AZORES MOVING E-NE AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 39W-42W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM
25N43W TO 30N38W.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N37W TO 8N32W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-19N
BETWEEN 33W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 14N43W TO 7N45W MOVING W 5-10 KT.
WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 10N31W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WESTERN MOST TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 9N47W ALONG 10N53W TO 11N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
11W-18W AND FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 22W-33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 46W-51W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SW MEXICO AND THE W GULF TO
92W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF FROM ALABAMA
ALONG 23N87W TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF AGAIN TONIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA S OF 26N E OF 83W ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS
FROM HURRICANE SANDY. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. HURRICANE SANDY WILL
LIFT N ACROSS CUBA TONIGHT BRINGING STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THU EXPANDING INTO E HALF OF THE
GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA…
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT HURRICANE SANDY MOVING TOWARD
E CUBA…PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
16N W OF 82W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN
80W-86W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE SANDY. HURRICANE
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS E CUBA THIS MORNING INTO THE W
ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRI THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…
HURRICANE SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE W ATLC AND TROPICAL STORM
TONY IS MOVING INTO THE E ATLC…PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W TO BERMUDA DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N
TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM PUERTO RICO TO CUBA W OF 65W
TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 30N W OF 60W AND IS ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 325 NM E OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W
ALONG 25N45W NARROWING AS IT DIPS S INTO THE TROPICS TO 2N47W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N44W TO 21N49W.
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1018 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N30W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N21W TO 20N35W THEN N TO BEYOND 32N30W. HURRICANE SANDY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
LATE THU THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM
EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER ON SUN.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
639 AM EDT Thu Oct 25 2012

Updated Marine and Aviation Discussions.

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
The long wave pattern across the CONUS this morning features a
TROUGH over the west and a RIDGE over the east. Surface analysis
shows HIGH PRESSURE centered off the Carolina coast ridging
southwestward over the southeastern states into the Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, HURRICANE Sandy recently made LANDFALL (around 0525Z)
near Santiago De Cuba AS a strong category 2 hurricane.

Over the local area, skies are clear and we have yet to see any
VSBY reductions as of 06Z. However, several guidance members
indicate the potential for some FOG early this morning, mainly
over our GA zones and perhaps as far south as I-10 in the FL Big
Bend. A FEW of the HI-res models do show some showers trying to
move into our far eastern zones this afternoon. However, similar
to yesterday, we believe most of these will dissipate just before
reaching our zones. We feel a silent 10 POP best handle the
situation. It will be another very warm day with MAX TEMPS rising
to the MID 80s across most areas which is 5-8 degrees above
NORMAL. One or two upper 80s cannot be ruled out. LOW tonight will
generally be in the lower 60s, or some 7-9 degrees above normal.
Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out over our eastern zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]…
By Friday morning, the upper level trough will be positioned over
the Great Plains. It will then make slow eastward progress through
Saturday. This trough will continue to steer Sandy northward,
keeping it well east of our area. The 06Z ADVISORY from NHC shows
the CENTER of Sandy just east of Abaco Island in the northeast
Bahamas at 12Z Friday and then about 390 miles east of Jacksonville
by 18Z Saturday. This TRACK will MEAN a slight increase in northerly
breezes on Saturday over our region. Marine areas will see stronger
winds (see below). Temps will remain well above normal on Friday
with mid 80s common. A cold FRONT will move into our northwestern
zones late Friday NIGHT bringing MIN temps into the mid 50s in
Coffee County. Most of the rest of the area will see lows around 60.
The front will make slow eastward progress during the day Saturday
reaching an ABY-TLH line. Max temps will REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH the upper 70s to
lower 80s. This is still expected to be a dry frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]…
Still very little change to the CURRENT extended forecast, with ever
growing confidence that the airmass behind the next Cold Front
(which will be exiting the CWA on SAT. night) will clearly be the
coldest of the season thus far. This is shown well in the Numerical
and the Raw Model guidance, which is continuing to trend slightly
downward in both Max and Min Temps to levels well below CLIMO. Also,
this is expected to be a fairly long lived trend, with the colder
AIR beginning to impact the region on Sunday, but lingering well
into the middle of next week. This will LIKELY result in a few days
with  High Temps not getting out of the 60s, and Lows dipping into
the mid to upper 30s away from the coast. Also, believe that the GFS
solution with Hurricane Sandy (which should be extra-tropical by the
start of this period) does go a bit awry by Wed. and Thu., so will
not buy off on the 30-40% POPS suggested by the GFS derived MEX
guidance, and plan on sticking with silent 10s for this particular
time frame. This will keep the extended FCST essentially
PRECIPITATION free through the period.
&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 12Z Friday] As of 1035 UTC this morning, VLD has been the
only terminal to experience any restrictions thus far, but they have
just dropped down to LIFR level Cigs. With a large batch of Fog and
Low Cigs continuing to build to the east, still think that TLH has a
shot at a period of IFR conditions from 12 to 14 UTC, with MVFR
conditions possible at ABY and ECP. Decided to keep DHN at VFR for
the rest of today, as the sunshine is likely to erode this low
canopy before it can reach that far to the west. After any
restrictions have lifted, expect VFR conditions to prevail at all
sites today, with just a period of BKN VFR level CU possible this
afternoon. Fog and Low Cigs will likely be a concern tonight as
well, especially at the eastern terminals again.

&&

.MARINE…
The current episode of elevated winds over the marine area will
continue for the entire forecast period as winds gradually veer from
the east to the north and then northwest as distant Sandy gains
LATITUDE. WIND speeds will generally rise no higher than exercise
caution over the western legs. However, the eastern legs east of
Apalachicola should see advisory level winds (and offshore SEAS)
from late tonight into Saturday. The advisory conditions will spread
west to cover the entire forecast waters for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
In general Red Flag conditions are not expected during the next 2-3
days, as the CWA will remain quite warm and fairly humid in advance
of the approaching Cold Front. However, on Friday, due to the very
warm afternoon temperatures, high dispersions, along with marginal
relative HUMIDITY and ERCs, parts of the Interior Florida Panhandle
may just barely end up meeting criteria. Therefore, will hold off on
any WATCH/WARNING decisions for one more cycle, but it will be
possible that a very small (in area) Red Flag Warning may be needed
for this area later today. Behind the front, much cooler and drier
air will gradually filter into the region from the northwest
beginning on Sunday, and depending on afternoon temperatures,
relative humidities may reach Red Flag levels over parts of the
Tri-State area during the beginning of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrological concerns or significant river rises
expected over the next week across the area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
640 AM EDT Wed Oct 24 2012

Updated Aviation Discussion.

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Looking at the long wave pattern this morning, we see a RIDGE
extending from the eastern U.S. north through Ontario to Hudson Bay.
A TROUGH is located over the western part of N. America. Surface
analysis shows HIGH PRESSURE centered off the Carolina coast ridging
westward across the southeastern states to TX. TS Sandy is moving
north across the Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica.

Little change is anticipated locally over the near term. While the
ridge will weaken somewhat to our north, Sandy will continue to move
northward and is forecast to briefly become a HURRICANE by this
evening AS it moves north of Jamaica. This will maintain a tight
GRADIENT across southeastern U.S. with easterly FLOW bringing
MOISTURE westward from the Atlantic. This should manifest itself
mainly in the form of CUMULUS clouds which will redevelop once again
today. While an ISOLATED SHOWER cannot be ruled out across our
eastern zones, POPS will be capped at silent 10 in those areas for
this afternoon. High TEMPS will be similar to those observed on
Tuesday with lower 80s north to MID 80s south. The increasing
moisture will maintain the recent moderating trend in MIN temps with
lows tonight only dipping to the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]…
All eyes will be on Sandy through this period. The STORM is forecast
to move north across the Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Sandy will
make its closest approach to FL Friday evening before being steered
off toward the northeast by the approaching upper level trough. Our
forecast area will continue to see offshore flow that will become
BREEZY by Friday. Temps will remain above NORMAL with highs
generally in the mid 80s and lows Thursday NIGHT mainly in the lower
60s. PoPs will be negligible.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]…
Not much change to the previous FCST reasoning or end results,
except for even greater confidence that the next AIR mass behind
the Cold FRONT over the weekend will be the coolest of the season
thus far. Before it passes through, we can expect one more warm
day over the CWA on SAT., with highs reaching the lower to middle
80s. While not weakening from a T/TD point of view, The Front
itself is expected to lose much of its moisture as it moves
through late on Sat. and Sat. night, with some additional drying
effects due to Sandy`s passage well off to our NE. Therefore, we
are still unable to justify anything higher than silent 10 PoPs,
with Temperatures dropping to near CLIMO levels on Sunday, before
falling to well below climo Mon-Wed on both Highs and Lows. High
Temps are expected to struggle to REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH the 70 degree mark through
this period, with LOW Temps possibly dropping into the upper 30s
to lower 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 12Z Thursday] While quite a FEW locations in the CWA did
have periods of MVFR VIS (with a couple of locations briefly
reaching IFR/LIFR levels), the fcst period of MVFR Vis was able to
elude our terminals overnight and early this morning, with VFR
conditions once again SET to prevail for the remainder of today and
tonight. There are some signs of potential MVFR Vis between 10 and
12 UTC towards Thu. morning once again, so did go with prevailing
5SM for ABY and VLD, as the greatest potential will be to the east.

&&

.MARINE…
A prolonged period of elevated winds is in progress over the marine
area. With strong high pressure north of the region, an easterly
flow regime is producing a NOCTURNAL SURGE with exercise caution
conditions this morning. Typical of this pattern, winds will slacken
off a bit during the day before increasing to cautionary levels once
again tonight into Thursday morning. After another brief lull
Thursday afternoon, winds will begin to back to the northeast in
response to Tropical Storm Sandy which will be moving northward
across the Bahamas. Our eastern waters will see ADVISORY conditions
Thursday night and Friday which will spread to the western waters by
Friday night. Cautionary to marginal advisory conditions will then
continue on through Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
It appears very clear that the fairly warm and somewhat humid
conditions will keep afternoon relative humidities safely away
from Red Flag levels for the rest of this week and into at least
the first half of the upcoming weekend. Behind the Cold Front,
however, much cooler and drier air will progressively filter into
the region from the northwest, which may result in Red Flag or
near Red Flag conditions for parts of the Tri-State area by the
beginning of next week.

Tropical Storm SANDY will soon reach hurricane strength.  Here’s the update from the National Hurricane Center…

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 76.9W AT 24/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT ABOUT 105 NM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 235 NM
S-SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MOVING N AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60
KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N82W TO 13N76W…FROM
12N-19N BETWEEN 71W-77W…AND FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 68W-71W.
TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA…HAITI…THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND E CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES…ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE BAHAMAS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM TONY IS CENTERED NEAR 27.4N 47.9W AT 24/0900 OR
ABOUT 1230 NM W-SW OF THE AZORES MOVING E-NE AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N49W TO 31N43W.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N34W TO 9N32W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. THE LATEST WINDSAT PASS SHOWED THAT THE LOW IS NO LONGER
EVIDENT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 13N42W TO 8N41W MOVING W NEAR 5
KT. A SMALL MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CO-LOCATED WITH
THIS WAVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR
12N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS TO THE S NEAR 7N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG
8N29W S  OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE TO 9N39W WHICH IS E
OF THE WESTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN
16W-30W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SW MEXICO AND THE W GULF TO
92W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF FROM THE SE
CONUS ALONG 85W ACROSS W CUBA/YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF
AGAIN THIS MORNING. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE S GULF AT 24/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM
23N94W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES
AGAIN THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT E THROUGH SUN.
TROPICAL STORM SANDY WILL MOVE N ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA
HAT WILL EXPAND INTO THE E GULF THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA…
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL STORM SANDY
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN…PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS W CUBA/
YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N84W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
80W-AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
INLAND OVER HONDURAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
STORM SANDY. TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO
HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN A
HURRICANE AS IT CROSSES CUBA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU WHERE IT
WILL LOSE STRENGTH BACK TO TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO THE
W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…
TROPICAL STORM TONY IS A CONCERN THIS MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL
ATLC…PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM SANDY EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N
ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO BERMUDA DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
FROM PUERTO RICO TO CUBA BETWEEN 67W-79W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE NW ATLC N OF 28N W OF 58W AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
ABOUT 180 NM OFF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 32N W OF 50W THEN NARROWS AS IT
DIPS S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N53W ALONG 20N49W INTO THE
TROPICS TO NEAR 2N45W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. TROPICAL STORM TONY IS TO THE E OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK
1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N32W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA NEAR 10N14W ALONG 14N34W TO 23N43W AND
IS BEING AMPLIFIED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THU WHILE
MAINTAINING STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SW ATLC AS TROPICAL
STORM SANDY IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVES N AND INTENSIFIES TO
HURRICANE TODAY. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS E CUBA
TONIGHT/EARLY THU AND EMERGE OFF THE N COAST OF CUBA AS TROPICAL
STORM EARLY THU CROSSING THE BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE FRI/EARLY SAT
BEFORE MOVING MORE NE OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE SUN.

 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 77.9W AT 23/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 280 NM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING NNE AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 11N78W
TO 13N76W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 74W-79W AND S OF 15N
BETWEEN 69W-73W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE S OF 14N W OF 79W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA TO
NICARAGUA. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA…HAITI…THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC…AND EASTERN CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
16 INCHES POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 24.1N 51.5W AT
23/0900 OR ABOUT 715 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING N-NE AT
10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34
KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 48W-52W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM
16N46W 25N47W TO 30N60W.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 26W/27W BETWEEN 9N-15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
HOWEVER THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM
13N39W TO 9N38W DRIFTING W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW
SURGE OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. HOWEVER THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W OF THE E TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N26W CONTINUING
ALONG 9N32W THEN S OF THE W TROPICAL WAVE TO 8N41W WITH THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N47W TO 9N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 28W-32W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 90 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 10N-13N…WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 4N12W TO 7N15W…WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 7N15W TO TO
14N21W…AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 28W-37W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW MEXICO OVER TEXAS/LOUISIANA
GIVING THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE GULF. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MORNING ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER
NORTH CAROLINA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA S ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 24N E OF 81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO S OF 24N W OF 95W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. E WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SE GULF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
WED. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT FROM PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND W ATLC AND TROPICAL STORM SANDY
IN THE CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA…
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL STORM SANDY IN THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN…PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ACROSS
CUBA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N83W GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-21N W OF 78W INCLUDING THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W-78W. TROPICAL
STORM SANDY WILL MOVE N INTENSIFYING TO HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS JAMAICA WED EVENING AND CUBA THU BEFORE BECOMING A
TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN AS IT CONTINUES INTO THE W ATLC THU
AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 28N W OF 52W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N54W TO 27N62W WHERE IT DISSIPATES E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR
25N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W TO 27N68W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N TO ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 67W-80W. A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 66W INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NE ATLC DIPS S TO 21N E OF 28W
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N20W
TO 28N29W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE
FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM
AFRICA NEAR 11N16W ALONG 17N34W TO 23N38W AND IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE N AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVES. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WED. TROPICAL STORM
SANDY WILL MOVE ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC ON THU ACROSS
BAHAMAS EARLY FRI THEN NE OF THE BAHAMAS ON SAT NIGHT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
555 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2012

Updated Aviation Discussion.

.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]…
The basic summary of the forecast for today and tonight is:
PERSISTENCE. Overall things should not be much different from
what occurred yesterday (Monday). With continued easterly FLOW,
the LOW-level MOISTURE content may slowly increase through the
next 24 hours. However, we are still expecting continued easterly
flow on the southern periphery of a low-level RIDGE axis, and HIGH
temperatures in the low 80s.

In the TROPICS, Tropical STORM Sandy formed yesterday to the south
of Jamaica in the western Caribbean. It is the 18th named storm of
the 2012 Atlantic season. The forecast calls for steady northward
motion, which would carry it east of the Florida peninsula with
very little CHANCE of any sort of impacts on our local area.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]…
During the middle of the week – the short term period – we should
begin to see some subtle changes in the regional weather pattern.
The low-level ridge axis and ANTICYCLONE should gradually begin to
erode on the southern and western periphery with a TROUGH digging
into the central US and the gradual northward motion of T.S. Sandy
near eastern Cuba. AS a consequence of this subtle change, we
should see a slight increase in the temperatures – with highs in
the MID 80s and lows in the upper 50s to around 60. NORMAL values
at Tallahassee are 80/55, so this would represent temperatures
around 5 degrees above normal. The continued easterly flow would
typically lead to a steady increase of ISOLATED-SCATTERED showers
each day, particularly across the eastern parts of the area and
the coastal waters. However, in this case, upper level ridging
remains rather pronounced and forecast models maintain fairly dry
AIR aloft. With the global models not producing any QPF across the
area, we have likewise opted to keep a dry forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday NIGHT through Tuesday]…
Despite the somewhat nearby presence of Tropical Storm Sandy
(which is forecast to become a HURRICANE as it begins to move
northward out of the Caribbean and through the Bahamas), an
essentially POP free FCST is indicated through the entire extended
period. This period will start off quite warm on Friday, with a
warm and somewhat humid easterly flow allowing TEMPS to climb into
the mid to upper 80s over the region. Then, a weakening cold FRONT
is expected to gradually move through the CWA over the weekend as
Sandy begins to pull further away well off to the N and E of the
FL peninsula. While progressively much cooler and drier air will
filter in from the NW through the beginning of next week behind
the front, it appears that any moisture out ahead of it (that
could otherwise spawn isolated showers) will steadily dissipate
off to our west, resulting in only silent 10% POPS for our region.
By Monday and Tuesday, the cool and dry air will have a solid
foothold over the Tri-State area, such that High Temps are
expected to be limited to the upper 60s to the lower 70s at best,
with Low Temps falling into the mid 40s to the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 12Z Wednesday]
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period, with
generally light ENE winds and FEW-SCT Stratocu between 4 and 5 kft,
mainly during the daylight hours.

&&

.MARINE…
We are having a brief SURGE of easterly winds overnight that meets
Small Craft ADVISORY criteria (20-25 knots or so). This was
supported by the tower observations at K and C Tower, as well as
Buoy 42036. Additionally, an ASCAT pass at around 0220z and an
OSCAT pass around 0600z showed evidence of a building area of
20-25 KNOT winds over a sizable portion of our coastal waters. The
SC.Y was issued for all but the Apalachee Bay zone. The eastern
leg adjacent to Taylor and Dixie Counties expires earlier at 10z
(as winds should subside there most rapidly), and in the rest of
the waters at 12z. We are already seeing evidence of the winds
relaxing on the latest observations, so the expiration times seem
appropriate. More NOCTURNAL surges of easterly winds are expected
the next several nights. With the models underestimating the WIND
speeds in this most recent event by 5-7 knots, it is possible that
we could see advisory-level winds again at some point. However,
confidence is highest in SCEC conditions (15-20kt) each night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Despite the gradual warming trend which is expected to result in
MAX Temps recovering into the mid to perhaps mid to upper 80s for
the middle and end of this week, afternoon surface dewpoints will
be slowly on the rise as well in the moistening northeasterly
flow. This should keep afternoon relative humidities safely away
from Red Flag levels for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrological concerns or significant river rises
expected over the next week across the area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
436 AM EDT Mon Oct 22 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Despite some SCATTERED MID-HIGH level clouds on IR satellite early
this morning, we should see another mostly SUNNY day with light
ENE FLOW on the southern periphery of the LOW-level ANTICYCLONE
that is currently centered over the southern Appalachians. The
highs should be fairly similar to yesterday with the consensus
model forecast 850mb temperatures roughly identical to the
observed value (+15C) on the 22.00z TAE SOUNDING – implying very
little low-level TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. This should result in
highs mostly 80-82 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]…
Continued sunny and dry weather is expected through Wednesday AS
the low-level anticyclone gradually migrates eastward to coastal
North Carolina, leaving our area in continued low-level easterly
flow with minimal temperature advection. Temperatures should
mostly be within a FEW degrees of normals. A few of the global
models do hint at some very light QPF (0.01-0.02″) affecting the
Atlantic coast of Florida and portions of the Gulf of Mexico late
Tuesday and into Wednesday as low-level MOISTURE gradually
increases in the easterly flow regime. While this can`t be
completely discounted, MOS POPS are too low at this time to
warrant mentioning any ISOLATED showers in the offshore waters.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday NIGHT through Sunday]…
The large scale longwave pattern commences highlighted by a slowly
DEEPENING and expanding TROUGH over WRN states, a low-AMPLITUDE
upper level RIDGE over ERN states with axis that will extend from
CNTRL Gulf of MEX NEWD into the Southeast and up the Appalachian
Mountains into Canada, and a TUTT over Cuba. At surface, high off
Carolina coast with ridge axis WSW across NRN Gulf region. Low
over WI with cold FRONT SSW to TX/OK border and tropical low under
TUTT. Forecast confidence not high for latter period in part
dependent on exact TRACK of low and whether it intensifies to a
tropical or subtropical system. Models also differ on trough and
frontal timing and strength THRU period (see below).

During the rest of the period, aloft, UPSTREAM trough continues to
broaden and deepen shunting DOWNSTREAM ridge progressively EWD with
axis along ERN seaboard by early Fri. By that time, TUTT has lifted
NWWD to over S FL. This combination will progressively weaken the
ERN ridge. By SAT, EWD shifting trough and TUTT advance N then NE to
off NE FL coast combine to shunt ridge further NEWD into Atlc. By
Sun AFTN, trough axis from Wrn Great Lakes to Wrn Gulf with remnant
of TUTT low along NC coast placing a weak ridge in between and over
local area. On Mon, trough axis along ERN seaboard with low moving
NWWD into TN Valley. At surface, EWD movement of upper trough drags
cold front progressively SEWD shunting coastal high into Atlc and
allowing Cuba low to lift NWD. By Sat aftn, front has reached Wrn AL
becoming quasi-STNRY with Cuba low now just off FL NE coast with
strengthening NE flow and keeping local area on dry side of system.
Front LIKELY moves thru local region Sat night into early Sun
albeit in a noticeably weakened form while low now off Carolinas. In
WAKE of front, local flow shifts to NW. By late Sun, low in mid-Atlc
and front to our SE with noticeably colder and drier deep layer AIR
overspreading local region rest of period. But all this dependent on
which model verifies. 00z GFS appears to be the outlier and shows a
far less amplified trough keeping Atlc low farther out to sea than
00z EURO or GFS ENSEMBLE. GFS would means slower frontal progression
and more noticeably moderate TEMPS in its wake. So until I see more
model consistency, forecast based on more on EURO.

The net result for our forecast is that there will be plenty of sun
and dry weather thru Saturday then a slight CHANCE of precip
Saturday Night and early Sunday, then dry again. The potential for
heavy RAIN is not high due to lack of Gulf return flow. Temps are a
tough forecast particularly from Sun to Mon since timing of front
and amplification of trough creates very different solutions. i.e.
GFS operational is warm outlier compared to the GFS ensemble and
EURO. For now, MIN temps will commence 7 to 10 degrees above CLIMO
dropping to around climo Sun night. MAX temps will commence around 5
degrees above climo dropping to near climo Sun and 3 to 5 degrees
below climo Mon with the majority of models showing that real cold
air not impacting local area until sometime Sun night or more likely
Mon or Mon night. (AVG inland lows/highs are 51/77 degrees).

&&

.AVIATION [through 06z Tuesday]…
VFR conditions under clear skies and generally light
northeasterly winds are expected through the TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE…
Not much has changed with respect to the expectations for the
marine weather over the upcoming work week. We are still expecting
a ridge of surface high PRESSURE to remain anchored over the
Southeast and along the Atlantic seaboard, with gradual pressure
falls over the northern Caribbean and Bahamas. This will SET up
persistent E-NE flow with occasional SCEC conditions, particularly
from about 03-15z each night. SCEC for this morning is for all but
the far eastern legs through late morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Minimum RH values will modestly increase this afternoon over the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Although lowest inland RH will hover
near 35 percent, afternoon dispersions values and likely ERC values
will remain below red flag levels so no WARNING has been issued. In
Georgia and Alabama, neither minimum RH values nor winds will REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH
red flag levels. The airmass will begin to moisten up on Tuesday
with no red flag conditions expected through the work week.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE
22/0000 UTC ANALYSIS. HOWEVER THE 1005 MB LOW REMAINS CENTERED
NEAR 15N78W AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
74W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 77W-84W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE W-SW AND BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. HEAVY RAINS FROM
THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER JAMAICA…
HISPANIOLA…AND E CUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES…ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.  

THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY FROM 24N52W TO 15N47W HAS BEEN
DROPPED FROM THE 22/0000 UTC ANALYSIS. HOWEVER THE 1011 MB LOW
REMAINS NEAR 21N51W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE LOW
CENTER. AN UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR
21N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE 18N-24N BETWEEN 43W-49W AND FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN
49W-53W.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM
14N36W TO 9N39W MOVING SW 5-10 KT. SMALL LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CAN BEEN SEEN ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 22/0000 UTC ANALYSIS FROM
17N19W TO 11N21W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE WAVE S
OF 13N.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W S OF THE E TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N21W ALONG
11N34W TO 10N37W. THE ITCZ IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE ATLC BASIN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150
NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA S OF 12N W OF 6W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM
2N-7N BETWEEN 15W-20W AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 21W-42W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW MEXICO OVER TEXAS GIVING THE
GULF NW FLOW ALOFT DRAWING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE GULF. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB HIGH OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND A 1022 MB HIGH OVER WEST
VIRGINIA. MODERATE RETURN FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE NW GULF. THE
FRONT IN THE ATLC DISSIPATES OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N84W GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG
THE N COAST OF CUBA E OF 84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO MOVING OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF 20N E OF 94W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
SE GULF BY TUE BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTH
CAROLINA AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN DESCRIBED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA…
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR THE 1005 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO 18N85W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 18N81W
TO 17N87W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG 16N TO ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA ENHANCING THE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA/NE COLOMBIA
BETWEEN 70W-74W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 66W-80W. THE SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW WILL DRIFT W THROUGH LATE MON THEN DEEPEN…
POSSIBLY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE…AS IT SHIFTS N TO NE TO NEAR
JAMAICA BY WED…AND INTO E CUBA THU AND FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA JUST E OF BERMUDA ALONG
27N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W WHERE IT BECOMES A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N84W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE FRONT TO
OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-80W AND WITHIN 60 NM NW OF
THE FRONT S OF 28N. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS N OF ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W TO BEYOND 32N59W
ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
1011 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
10N BETWEEN 42W-60W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NE ATLC DIPS S TO
23N E OF 35W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N23W
ALONG 30N31W TO 30N38W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 31N42W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 43W AND IS ANCHORED NEAR
10N34W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE N OF THE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM 21N33W TO 19N34W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E
TO ALONG 32N55W TO 27N61W ON MON NIGHT THEN NE OUT OF THE AREA
BY TUE NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF NORTH CAROLINA COAST
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN TUE INTO WED. THE LOW WILL EMERGE N OF
CUBA FRI.

Weather for Okaloosa…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR… SOUTHERN OKALOOSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA… * UNTIL 1145 AM CDT * AT 1049 AM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARY ESTHER…OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CINCO BAYOU…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE… OCEAN CITY… FORT WALTON BEACH… SHALIMAR… LAKE LORRAINE… CINCO BAYOU… WRIGHT… VALPARAISO… NICEVILLE… MARY ESTHER…

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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

TROPICAL STORM PATTY AT 11/0900 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 25.1N 72.5W
OR ABOUT ABOUT 230 MI…375 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS SSW AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC. NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI SOUTHWEST OF
THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION…AS A CONSEQUENCE OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS IS ALSO WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE STORM DUE
ITS PROXIMITY TO A FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 66W-72W.

AS OF 0600 UTC…A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 60.4W OR ABOUT 32 NM SE OF
ST LUCIA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN RAIN BANDS…SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW STILL LACKS A CLOSED CIRCULATION.  UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS
LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NW OR N-NW AT 9 TO 13 KT.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER
FROM 7N-17N BETWEEN 57W-60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN
44W-57W. 

…TROPICAL WAVES…

A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N22W TO
5N24W BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING W AT 15 KT. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-30W. 

…THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA ENDING ALONG THE
COAST OF GUINEA BISSAU AT 12N16W. THE ITCZ IS W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE FROM 5N27W TO 5N34W TO 7N40W TO 10N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 14W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N
OF THE ITCZ FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA AT 34N87W. 10-20 KT
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRONGEST WINDS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 93W-97W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS…THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA E
OF 87W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N99W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO
PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE…AND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR TAMPICO. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA…
A WEAK 1006 MB LOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF ST LUCIA. A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS E OF THE ISLAND. SEE ABOVE.
EXPECT THE LOW CENTER TO BE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS
WITH WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE N AND E OF CENTER.
ELSEWHERE…THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN WHERE 20 KT NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN 12-24 HOURS.
PRESENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA…PANAMA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA…E
CUBA…AND HAITI FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 72W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS…AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W…WHILE NE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
INCLEMENT WEATHER OVER THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS…AND ALSO INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…
T.S. PATTY IS E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE 1027 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N42W. A LARGE AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF
50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS…AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 29W-32W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 27N57W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1023 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2012

.NEAR TERM…
[Through Tonight] A surface RIDGE over the southern US and an
upper level ridge to our west will continue to keep the tri-
state area dry today and tonight. There is a line of CONVECTION
north of the upper level ridge from northern Texas stretching east
into Tennessee. AS the HIGH PRESSURE system moves eastward, FLOW
around the ridge will direct some of that MOISTURE to our
northernmost counties in the form of higher sky cover. Chances for
RAIN, however, remain insignificant. Highs today will be in the
upper 80s, higher than yesterday. Lows tonight will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, upper 60s along the immediate coast.
Overnight, coastal waters past 20nm will see an increase in WIND
speeds to around 15 KTS as the GRADIENT tightens.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 12z Saturday] VFR conditions and light north to northeast
winds will prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE…
Light northeast winds will continue over the waters today. Winds
will begin to increase overnight as the pressure gradient tightens.
Over the offshore waters this means wind speeds around 15 knots and
SEAS 2-3 feet. The increase in winds and seas will continue as a
FRONT is expected to move across the waters from east to west
starting on Saturday. This will peak from late Saturday into
Saturday NIGHT, with a period of ADVISORY level winds possible over
the offshore legs, and exercise caution conditions elsewhere. Winds
and seas will relax for Sunday into Monday, before increasing again
on Tuesday with the passage of another front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 434 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2012

.SHORT TERM…
[Saturday through Sunday] While the upper ridge will remain in
place over the deep south into Saturday night, strong high
pressure along the MID-Atlantic coast (bolstered by confluent
upper flow) will drive a back-door cold front down the LEE of the
Appalachians. This front should move across the forecast area from
northeast to southwest Saturday afternoon and help limit high
temperatures a bit, especially across the eastern zones. Cannot
rule out an ISOLATED SHOWER or two east of Tallahassee Saturday
afternoon or evening with the enhanced easterly flow. However,
overall chances are very LOW and will leave mention of POPS out of
the forecast.

The upper flow will begin to evolve on Sunday as a rather sharp
upper TROUGH digs into the central plains. However, for the tri-
state area, the impact of this system should hold off until early
next week, with dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures
prevailing on Sunday.

.LONG TERM…
[Sunday night through next Friday] An upper trough and associated
cold front will swing through the region Sunday night through
Monday. The front will be weak with little or no convection
accompanying it. Deep layer ridging will briefly build into the
area on Tuesday and Wednesday before a more ACTIVE low pressure
system arrives Thursday. This cold front should bring at least
SCATTERED showers and thunderstorms for the Wednesday night
through Thursday time frame. Surface high pressure and a much
drier airmass filter in behind the front Friday. MAX and MIN TEMPS
will be at just above seasonal levels Monday with near to under
seasonal levels through the remainder of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Minimum RH will dip near 35 percent over a small portion of the
eastern Big bend this afternoon. This region also coincides with
forecast ERC`s near 20 and dispersions in the lower 70s. Such
marginal criteria over a small area does not warrant a WARNING.
DISPERSION will remain elevated on Saturday, but minimum RH is
forecast to be above critical thresholds.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURE…

TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS…FROM 18N53W TO A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW AT 10N55W. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-NW AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE WAVE LIES
WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 44W-58W. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS FEATURE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N72W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N70W TO THE LOW TO THE S BAHAMAS AT
22N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-29N
BETWEEN 69W-73W. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TODAY AND
BRIEFLY PERSIST BEFORE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CAUSE RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…
AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD SLOWLY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
FEATURE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

…THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N15W
TO 7N20W TO 4N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 4N23W TO 2N40W TO 3N44W
TO N BRAZIL AT 3N51W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AT THIS TIME.

…DISCUSSION…

THE GULF OF MEXICO…
AS OF 0900 UTC…A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AT
38N85W. 10-15 KT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA…AND
W CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-95W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS…THE BASE OF A LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF N OF 24N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUD IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA…AND W CUBA. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE…AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA…S GULF S OF 22N. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA…
A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER GUATEMALA…HONDURAS…BELIZE…AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
14N-22N BETWEEN 80W-91W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N
COLOMBIA…PANAMA…AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
74W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA AND HAITI FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 72W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS…AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS…WHILE NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SIMILAR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA…WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ADVECTS INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…
A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N72W. SEE ABOVE. A
LARGE 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N41W. A
LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 15N E OF 38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS…AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N34W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN
25W-32W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 21N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
19N-25N BETWEEN 60W-65W.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
825 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2012

.Near Term (Through Tonight)…
It`s a clear, dry morning in Tallahassee and for much of the
forecast area. A FEW cities throughout the area are seeing some
minor VISIBILITY restrictions. However, this should dissipate
quickly with increasing sun angle this morning. With surface HIGH
PRESSURE and dry AIR being advected to our area, today looks to be
another gorgeous day to be outside. Satellite PW estimates
show us to be at 0.76 in, about 60% of our NORMAL values. In fact,
we are even drier than that, the 12Z SOUNDING only showed PW of 0.58
in. Highs today are expected to be in the lower to MID 80s, upper
80s along the Gulf coast. Lows tonight should be in the mid 50s,
upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]…
An upper RIDGE will build into the southeast on Friday, increasing
thicknesses and allowing high temperatures to recover back into the
mid and upper 80s. By Saturday, strong high pressure pushing into
the Mid-Atlantic states will push a backdoor cold FRONT into the
eastern half of the forecast area. This will keep temperatures
slightly cooler east of Tallahassee, with the warmer TEMPS
continuing to the west.

At this time, no precip is expected through Saturday.

.LONG TERM [Saturday NIGHT through Wednesday]…
The upper ridge flattens on Sunday AS the next upper TROUGH and
associated surface cold front approach from the west. The axis of
the trough and cold front are forecast to push across the local
area late Monday into early Tuesday. The GFS does show an
impressive lobe of short wave energy with this system but deep
layer MOISTURE is lacking. Will keep POPS fairly LOW for now
(20-30%) for the Sunday night through Monday night timeframe.
Zonal FLOW returns in the WAKE of the trough along with a drier
airmass through the middle of next week. Another cold front will
be approaching Thursday with associated CONVECTION possibly
holding off until after Thursday night or Friday of next week. MAX
temps will be in the lower to mid 80s with MIN temps generally in
the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION…
[through 12Z Friday] After the brief period of MVFR visibility ends
this morning, VFR conditions and light northeast winds will prevail
through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE…
Following a modest SURGE this morning in the wake of a weak cold
front, winds and SEAS will remain well below headline criteria
through early Saturday. The GRADIENT is forecast to tighten late
Saturday into Sunday as strong high pressure builds over the Mid
Atlantic states. Winds and seas may REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH ADVISORY criteria
Saturday night. Conditions will improve by early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
A few inland locations across northwest Florida will see minimum
relative HUMIDITY values drop below 35 percent this afternoon and
again on Friday. However, the other parameters such as ERC values
and dispersions are forecast to remain below critical levels.
Thus, no fire weather headlines are expected at this time.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
359 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
A broad TROUGH over the eastern U.S. will remain in place today
and tonight AS the relatively cool surface HIGH over the Carolina
Piedmont weakens. Expect some moderation in the airmass today,
with high temperatures pushing back into the lower to MID 80s this
afternoon, after starting out in the lower to mid 50s this
morning.

Overnight, a final SHORTWAVE will move through the base of the
trough and push a weak SFC trough/FRONT into the forecast area.
With little forcing or LOW-level MOISTURE to work with, no precip
is expected with the frontal passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]…
The main impact of tonights frontal passage will be a fresh
infusion of drier (but not necessarily cooler) AIR. High
temperatures on Thursday should be quite similar to today.
However, low temperatures Thursday and Friday morning will be a
FEW degrees lower than this morning (reaching the lower to mid
50s).

By Friday afteroon, a RIDGE is forecast to build over the Gulf,
with heights and thicknesses rising over the northern Gulf coast.
Therefore, expect a slightly warmer afternoon for Friday,
especially across the northern portion of the forecast area.

No PRECIPITATION is expected through Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday NIGHT through next Wednesday]…
Upper level ridging will continue over the Southeast U.S. through
Saturday. The FLOW becomes nearly zonal on Sunday followed by a low
AMPLITUDE trough and associated surface cold front Sunday night into
Monday. The front is forecast to stall and stretch out west to east
across North Florida Monday night into Tuesday as the flow becomes
zonal once again. This boundary will lift north late Tuesday as the
next short wave and cold front approach from the west on Wednesday.
The first mentioned front will bring a slight or low end CHANCE of
CONVECTION to the region Tuesday and Tuesday night, otherwise, the
extended period will be dry. MAX temperatures will be a little above
CLIMO, with Lows generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland
areas and slightly warmer at the beaches through the period.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Thursday]…
We expect prevailing IFR cigs and possibly IFR/LIFR vsbys to
develop at all terminals in the pre-DAWN hours. Shortly after
SUNRISE, nearly unlimited VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE…
A brief increase in northerly winds is expected late tonight with
the passage of a weak cold front. However, conditions are expected
to remain below headline criteria. North to northeast winds will
then remain relatively light through Friday as weak high
PRESSURE builds south over the waters. The GRADIENT will tighten
again on Saturday as the high pressure to the north strengthens,
before conditions subside on Sunday. A brief period of exercise
caution conditions will be possible Saturday or Saturday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Drier air will be moving into the region over the next few days.
Minimum relative HUMIDITY values are expected to drop below 35% over
a small portion the inland Florida panhandle and the Western Big
Bend this afternoon. However, other factors such as ERC and
DISPERSION will not meet Red Flag criteria. A much larger portion of
the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend will drop below critically low
relative humidity on Thursday but it does not appear at this time
that the the other parameters will meet Red Flag criteria. Our
Georgia and Alabama counties will not be quite dry enough for Red
Flag conditions on these days.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N45W TO 9N43W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 9N43W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
40W-47W.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 8N20W TO 6N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS CONTINUES FROM 6N30W TO 8N40W TO 9N44W TO THE COAST OF
FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 37W-40W…AND FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 47W-50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 50W-58W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
AS OF 0900 UTC…A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA
AT 29N81W TO 25N90W TO 23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
20N96W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 94W-97W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FRONT IS MOSTLY VOID OF CONVECTION. 10-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS…A LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE UNITED STATES…N MEXICO…AND THE GULF N OF 25N
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
S MEXICO NEAR 18N101W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS LOW IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVER THE S GULF S OF 23N.

CARIBBEAN SEA…
A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AT 13N83W TO PANAMA AT 9N81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 76W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER W HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
88W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS…AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S
OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N70W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…
10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N W OF 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W TO AN EMBEDDED 1011 MB LOW AT
26N75W TO 23N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 70W-74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N23W TO 27N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY
AIR IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 12N E OF 38W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS…AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 22N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
18N-24N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
403 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…

With the passage of the SHORTWAVE TROUGH and surface FRONT, a
cooler and drier airmass is advecting into the region. Morning LOW
temperatures will RANGE from the lower 50s across southeast
Alabama, to the upper 60s across the southeast Big Bend of
Florida. An expansive area of low ceilings spreading southwest
out of central Georgia will keep temperatures from realizing their
true bottom this morning. See more about the evolution of the
clouds in the aviation discussion below.

Like the morning temperatures, afternoon HIGH temperatures will
LIKELY remain about 5 degrees below average. Expect upper 70s for
most locations, with lower 80s likely across portions of north
Florida. No RAIN is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]…

The broad trough aloft will keep afternoon temperatures near or
slightly below average through Thursday. Overnight temperatures
will remain about 5 degrees below average through the period.
At the surface, dry northerly FLOW provided by high PRESSURE
will keep rain out of the forecast. It appears AS though benign
weather will continue for several days.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday through next Tuesday]…

The latest GFS & ECMWF forecast ridging at 500 MB over the Southeast
U.S. through Saturday, followed by a slight FALL in the heights into
early next week as trough (currently off the CA coast) translates
quickly northeastward over the Ohio Valley. An area of high pressure
centered to our northeast will provide our forecast area with east
to northeast winds. Both global models forecast the airmass to be
quite dry, though some increase in boundary layer MOISTURE is likely
over the weekend and next week as the boundary layer becomes
modified by its increasing trajectory over the western Atlantic.
Rain chances will be near CLIMO, which this time of YEAR (typically
our driest period) is less than 15%. Temperatures will be a little
above climo, especially during the daytime, with highs in the
generally in the MID 80s (climo is lower 80s). Lows will start off
(Friday & Saturday) in the 50s, then warm into the 60s Sunday
through next Tuesday. Of course, highs will be slightly cooler and
lows slightly warmer than this at the beaches.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 08Z Tuesday]…

Areas of low-end MVFR to IFR cigs appeared to be developing across
our forecast area as of 06 UTC. GFS & NAM MOS didn`t initialize this
very well, so the first 6-12 hours of this forecast are primarily a
blend of recent IR imagery trends and the HRRR. All terminals will
likely have periods of low-end MVFR cigs this morning, with
occasional IFR cigs possible (especially KVLD). Conditions will
slowly improve between late morning and early afternoon, with
generally VFR conditions returning to all sites by early to mid
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE…

Winds will continue subsiding through the day today as
the CALM CENTER of high pressure moves nearer to the Gulf. By
Thursday, a reinforcing area of high pressure will move into the
Gulf, increasing winds and SEAS through the weekend. Cautionary
winds are expected for at least a brief period of time over the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…

With a drier airmass moving into the region, a brief period of
locally “critical” low RH levels is possible Wednesday afternoon,
but it`s probably too marginal for any sort of Fire Weather WATCH at
this time. A slightly longer period of low RH is possible Thursday
afternoon, but it`s too early to tell if other factors (such as ERC
and DISPERSION) will warrant any watches or warnings. GA & AL will
probably not be quite dry enough for Red Flag conditions on these
days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
430 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…

Today, a SHORTWAVE TROUGH will pivot around the base of a large,
broad upper trough which spans much of the country. This
shortwave, with some added momentum from northerly winds on the
southeastern side of surface HIGH PRESSURE, will push the
previously stalled surface FRONT clear of the southeast Big Bend
later tonight. AS this occurs through the day, SCATTERED showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front.
Although scattered showers will be a possibility for most areas
east of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers, the best CHANCE
for RAIN will reside closer to the Suwannee River Valley.

Behind the front, cooler AIR will spill south through southeast
Alabama, into southern Georgia and north Florida. Lower to middle
50s are LIKELY tonight northwest of a line from Altha through
Albany. Southeast of this line middle to upper 50s are likely,
with lower 60s remaining across the extreme southeastern Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]…

The broad trough aloft will keep temperatures near or slightly
below average through Wednesday. At the surface, dry northerly
FLOW provided by high pressure will keep rain out of the forecast.
It appears as though benign weather will continue for several
days.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday NIGHT through next Monday]…

No significant weather systems are expected to affect the area
during the extended period. At the start of the period, broad
upper level troughing will be replaced by a building upper level
RIDGE over the Gulf of Mexico. This should spell dry conditions
through the period. After a couple of cool mornings during MID-
week, gradually warming temperatures are expected as the ridge
builds in during the period with afternoon highs 2-3 degrees above
NORMAL by the weekend. (Normals for Tallahassee for this time of
YEAR are around 84/61.)

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 08Z Monday]…

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period with light
winds. The only potential issues appear to be the possibility of
some tempo MVFR conditions at KVLD near DAWN as well as some
scattered showers or thunderstorms around there during the day
closest to the stalled frontal boundary.

&&

.MARINE…

High pressure building in over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
will keep northerly winds enhanced through tonight. At this time
cautionary level winds are not expected. By Tuesday afternoon, the
CALM CENTER of high pressure will overspread the Gulf. Winds and
SEAS will slowly increase once again towards the end of the week
as another area of high pressure moves into the northern Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…

Minimum relative HUMIDITY values may dip to near critical levels
over portions of the inland Florida panhandle on Wednesday
afternoon, but otherwise there are no fire weather concerns for the
next several days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 AM EDT Wed Oct 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS…The long wave pattern remains rather blocky across most
of the CONUS this morning and therefore hasn`t evolved much since
last NIGHT. We continue to see ridges over the southwestern states
and off the U.S. east coast with a TROUGH in between over the
Mississippi Valley and western Gulf of Mexico. However, a decent
looking short wave is noted on water vapor imagery diving
southeastward across the northwestern states. Surface analysis shows
an occluded LOW CENTER over Illinois. The occlusion extends to a
triple point over Southwest VA with a stationary FRONT extending
southward from there across the Piedmont and Southeast GA to near
the Suwannee River and then out across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
HIGH PRESSURE is centered over AL. Area radars indicated some very
light RAIN running northward along the frontal boundary across the
marine area with a FEW sprinkles noted across the eastern FL Big
Bend from time to time.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Today through Friday]…
The upper low over LA will be kicked northeastward by the system
approaching from the northwest. The entire trough will then
gradually open up AS it moves east across the Gulf Coast states with
the main vort lobe reaching our area early Thursday. Meanwhile, the
front lying across our southeast zones will edge very gradually back
to the northwest over the next couple of days. The front will
roughly bisect our forecast area from northeast to southwest from
Thursday night into Friday. This front will separate the drier AIR
in place over our northwestern zones from the deeper MOISTURE to the
southeast. The result will be a very tight POP GRADIENT across the
forecast area through the period. Southeast AL and adjacent areas in
Southwest GA and the FL Panhandle will see silent 10 POPS. However
the southeast FL Big Bend zones will generally see PoPs in the 50-70
percent RANGE through Thursday. With weaker upper forcing, but a
boundary still in place, PoPs on Friday will dip about 10 percent.
Most strong to severe storms will remain south and east of the
forecast area. However, SHEAR and INSTABILITY parameters indicate a
CHANCE for ISOLATED stronger storms as far northwest as Dixie County
this afternoon into the evening hours. MAX TEMPS will be pretty
close to NORMAL over the next few days. MIN temps will be modulated
by the moisture gradient with drier areas well northwest getting
into the 50s and more humid areas well southeast bottoming out
around 70.

.LONG TERM [Friday night through next Wednesday]…
No major systems are expected to affect the area over the next
several days. There may be some leftover SHOWER activity over the
eastern part of the forecast area on Saturday from the pesky
boundary that will affect us during the short term. By Sunday, the
03/00z GFS and 02/12z Euro are in good agreement that a mainly dry
cold front will sweep through the area with cool high pressure
building in behind it for the remainder of the period. The only PoPs
currently mentioned for Sunday are 20s over the southeastern big
bend. Elsewhere, a silent 10 PoP was used. Temperatures will drop
slightly below normal behind the front on Sunday night and Monday
with lows in the 50s over most of the area and highs mostly in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.MARINE…
A stubborn 7-sec WSW SWELL is keeping SEAS elevated above what the
local WIND would produce this morning and we have gone about a foot
above guidance to account for this. The four-footers should subside
to 3 FT later today and 2 ft by tonight. After that, look for low
seas and light northeast winds to persist through Saturday. An
increase in north winds is possible by Sunday after a cold front
moves across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 06z Thursday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. There may be some tempo MVFR VIS at KDHN for a
few hours near DAWN. Elsewhere, abundant high cloudiness is expected
to limit the chance of vis restrictions tonight. There may be a few
showers around KVLD and KTLH during the late afternoon hours as some
moisture starts to return northward from the Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Conditions are expected to remain too moist for fire weather
concerns through the weekend. By Monday afternoon, a drier airmass
behind a cold front may bring some low relative HUMIDITY values into
parts of inland northwest Florida.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Riverine and area flooding concerns look minimal at this time with
72-hour QPF running below an inch west of a VLD to ST. Marks line
with max 2-inch totals predicted over the Lower Suwannee River.

We mentioned this unique weather event on the air a few days ago and since then we’ve had lots of viewers want a closer look… Here you go…

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
VALID THROUGH 0515 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURE…

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 03/0600 UTC IS NEAR
34.5N 35.4W. NADINE IS ABOUT 455 NM/845 KM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES. NADINE IS MOVING EASTWARD 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE AZORES THROUGH THURSDAY. PLEASE
READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC…AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY…
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC…FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 34N TO 35N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 14N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED STRONG FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W…SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 34W AND 43W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM
MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. THE CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH…
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 9 TO 13 KNOTS.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N51W 14N55W 8N56W…
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW. THE WAVE IS ABOUT 400 NM TO THE SOUTH OF A 25N52W MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION…ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 52W
AND 57W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS SHEARING THE
CLOUD TOPS IN THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS.

…THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
11N15W 7N16W 5N22W 5N31W. THE REST OF THE AREA IS BROKEN UP BY
THE LARGER-SCALE WIND FLOW THAT SURROUNDS THE 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N39W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 10N44W
12N49W 12N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED STRONG FROM
5N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 34W
AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W…SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 32W AND
FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W.

…DISCUSSION…

THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA…INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO…INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA FROM 30N TO 31N ALONG 82W/83W…
THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO…TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO…ACROSS NORTHERN
GUATEMALA…INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR THE GUATEMALA BORDER.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N87W IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE…25N90W…TO 21N97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST
OF THE SAME LINE.

A BROAD AND FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

THE 19N87W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM 18 HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 16N85W NEAR
THE EASTERN HONDURAS COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 80W. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT
ENDED AT 03/0000 UTC FOR HAVANA CUBA WAS 0.87 OF AN INCH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 28N48W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…TO A 25N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER…TO 18N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA TO THE JAMAICA CHANNEL…IN BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE EAST OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING IN THE WATERS THAT
ARE IN THE WESTERN HAITI COASTAL WATERS HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH
TIME. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT
03/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.44 OF AN INCH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA
AND 86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE MONSOON TROUGH
AT THIS TIME.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT2…AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST…MIAOFFNT3…FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF 78W FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS NORTHWARD. THIS IS PRECIPITATION THAT IS UNDER AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE…IN AN AREA OF MOIST SURFACE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
THAT ALSO IS WITHIN 280 NM TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
STATIONARY FRONT.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 28N48W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…TO A 25N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER…TO 18N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W IN SURFACE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW…IN BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS…MIAHSFAT2…FOR DETAILS
ABOUT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 14N39W
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…THAT MOVES TO 1005 MB
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 19N41W AT 24 HOURS…AND TO
1004 MB POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 21N42W IN 48 HOURS.
A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 42W AT 36 HOURS
AND AT 48 HOURS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
346 AM EDT Tue Oct 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS…Looking at the long wave pattern this morning, we see it
is amplified with ridges over the western states and off the east
coast and a TROUGH over the Mississippi Valley and western Gulf of
Mexico. At the surface, LOW PRESSURE is centered over the Ohio
Valley with a cold FRONT trailing southward to the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and Yucatan Peninsula. This front has been working very
slowly eastward across our forecast area overnight and has yet to
quite make it to the Chattahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers AS of
07Z. Pre-frontal showers continue to weaken as they traverse our
South Central and eastern FL Big Bend zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday]…
With the parent low lifting northward and the upper level trough
expected to make little to no eastward progress, there will be
little push to get this cold front moving. It will therefore
continue to inch across the forecast area all day today. The good
news is that the pre-frontal PRECIPITATION is making progress and we
can limit POPS to our eastern zones and marine area. Once a primary
vort CENTER near the TX Panhandle reaches the base of the upper
trough this afternoon, it will begin to make some eastward progress.
However, most of the energy in the system will then lift quickly
northeast leaving behind an increasingly sheared system that will
limp into the area on Thursday. Meanwhile, the surface front will
pull up stationary over Northeast FL and the southeast Gulf of
Mexico and then begin to drift back to the northwest as the weak
upper support approaches from the west. Overall, we feel the NAM is
overdone with this MOISTURE return and chose PoPs closer to the
GFS-based MAV. PoPs will therefore return to our southeast zones by
Wednesday morning and creep northwest to a line from roughly
AAF-TLH-VLD by afternoon. By Thursday, slight CHANCE PoPs will even
REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH our northwestern zones with MID RANGE PoPs over the Southeast
Big Bend counties. See table below for details. TEMPS will be close
to NORMAL today and tonight, except a bit below normal over our
northwest zones, mainly Southeast AL. Temps will return to normal in
that area for Wednesday and Wednesday NIGHT and get a bit above
normal to the southeast. HUMIDITY levels will be much lower
northwest than southeast through the period.

.LONG TERM [Thursday night through next Tuesday]…
No major systems are expected to affect the area over the next
several days. The period begins with a weakening boundary bisecting
the area. Upper level support is expected to be lacking by this
time, and only 20-30 PoPs are expected over the eastern part of the
forecast area on Friday and Saturday with dry AIR dominating the
remainder of the area. By Sunday, broad upper level troughing is
expected over the eastern half of the U.S. with another cold front
moving through the area. Moisture return appear unimpressive with
this front, and a mainly dry frontal passage is expected with cooler
air behind it. Low temperatures are expected to drop slightly below
average behind this front towards the end of the period with mid to
upper 50s possible over a large part of the area by Sunday night and
Monday night.

&&

.MARINE…
SEAS were a bit stubborn in coming down below ADVISORY criteria
earlier in the evening due to some 8-second WSW SWELL. However, we
are now safely below at 42036 and we plan to maintain an exercise
caution headline to start the day. Seas are forecast to drop below 6
FT by this afternoon in the presence of moderate WSW winds. The
GRADIENT will weaken considerably by this evening with seas finally
dropping to 3 feet or less by midnight. Look for low winds and seas
to then continue through Saturday with northeast winds setting up
for the latter part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 06z Wednesday] Cigs are expected to become predominantly
MVFR from west to east through the early morning hours as a cold
front moves through the area. Cigs are expected to scatter out over
most areas by late morning with a return to VFR conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Despite some drying behind a cold front this afternoon, conditions
are expected to remain too moist for fire weather concerns through
the next several days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EDT Mon Oct 1 2012

.DISCUSSION…
Primary focus will continue to be broken band of showers and tstms
extending from ERN AL s-SWWD into the WRN FL panhandle ahead of
slow moving upper LOW and associated cold FRONT. 12z SOUNDING at
TAE indicates low and MID level lapse rates remain weak with only
marginal deep layer SHEAR given the modest INSTABILITY for
persistent severe threat. However, low level shear is strong under
25-30 KT SLY LLJ just off the deck. In addition, DIURNAL heating
with TEMPS rising through the lower 80s this morning will begin to
boost SBCAPE and support increase/deepen showers and ISOLD tstms
ahead of the slow moving cold front across the FL Bend region into
SWRN GA and areas to the west. Transient rotational couplets and
resultant threats of a brief TORNADO and/or damaging winds will
accompany activity AS it shifts slowly EWD through the day. Might
see more of an ewd push later today through tonight to the
activity once primary cold front catches up with pre-frontal band
of showers.

Coastal advisories and HIGH rip CURRENT risk remains warranted for
the panhandle beaches today. Potential for strongest WIND gusts will
LIKELY remain confined to the moist CONVECTION today and will opt
to drop wind ADVISORY issued earlier for most of the area.
Otherwise, only a FEW tweaks to the forecast needed this morning.
May be a bit low with POPS over FL Bend region mid to late week
as front remains stalled across NRN/central FL and low level
MOISTURE returns. Will take a closer look at that this afternoon.

.AVIATION [Beginning 14Z Monday]…
MVFR and brief IFR conditions will continue ahead of the slow moving
cold front around KECP, KDHN and KALB for much of the day with
WIDESPREAD showers and tstms. VFR condition will also deteriorate at
KTLH and KVLD into the early afternoon as showers and isold tstms
increase across this area. Gusty sly winds will also be prevalent
today, with wind shift and clearing skies behind the cold front
spreading west to east tonight.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
GM…SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening

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