AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1023 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2012

.NEAR TERM…
[Through Tonight] A surface RIDGE over the southern US and an
upper level ridge to our west will continue to keep the tri-
state area dry today and tonight. There is a line of CONVECTION
north of the upper level ridge from northern Texas stretching east
into Tennessee. AS the HIGH PRESSURE system moves eastward, FLOW
around the ridge will direct some of that MOISTURE to our
northernmost counties in the form of higher sky cover. Chances for
RAIN, however, remain insignificant. Highs today will be in the
upper 80s, higher than yesterday. Lows tonight will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, upper 60s along the immediate coast.
Overnight, coastal waters past 20nm will see an increase in WIND
speeds to around 15 KTS as the GRADIENT tightens.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 12z Saturday] VFR conditions and light north to northeast
winds will prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE…
Light northeast winds will continue over the waters today. Winds
will begin to increase overnight as the pressure gradient tightens.
Over the offshore waters this means wind speeds around 15 knots and
SEAS 2-3 feet. The increase in winds and seas will continue as a
FRONT is expected to move across the waters from east to west
starting on Saturday. This will peak from late Saturday into
Saturday NIGHT, with a period of ADVISORY level winds possible over
the offshore legs, and exercise caution conditions elsewhere. Winds
and seas will relax for Sunday into Monday, before increasing again
on Tuesday with the passage of another front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 434 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2012

.SHORT TERM…
[Saturday through Sunday] While the upper ridge will remain in
place over the deep south into Saturday night, strong high
pressure along the MID-Atlantic coast (bolstered by confluent
upper flow) will drive a back-door cold front down the LEE of the
Appalachians. This front should move across the forecast area from
northeast to southwest Saturday afternoon and help limit high
temperatures a bit, especially across the eastern zones. Cannot
rule out an ISOLATED SHOWER or two east of Tallahassee Saturday
afternoon or evening with the enhanced easterly flow. However,
overall chances are very LOW and will leave mention of POPS out of
the forecast.

The upper flow will begin to evolve on Sunday as a rather sharp
upper TROUGH digs into the central plains. However, for the tri-
state area, the impact of this system should hold off until early
next week, with dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures
prevailing on Sunday.

.LONG TERM…
[Sunday night through next Friday] An upper trough and associated
cold front will swing through the region Sunday night through
Monday. The front will be weak with little or no convection
accompanying it. Deep layer ridging will briefly build into the
area on Tuesday and Wednesday before a more ACTIVE low pressure
system arrives Thursday. This cold front should bring at least
SCATTERED showers and thunderstorms for the Wednesday night
through Thursday time frame. Surface high pressure and a much
drier airmass filter in behind the front Friday. MAX and MIN TEMPS
will be at just above seasonal levels Monday with near to under
seasonal levels through the remainder of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Minimum RH will dip near 35 percent over a small portion of the
eastern Big bend this afternoon. This region also coincides with
forecast ERC`s near 20 and dispersions in the lower 70s. Such
marginal criteria over a small area does not warrant a WARNING.
DISPERSION will remain elevated on Saturday, but minimum RH is
forecast to be above critical thresholds.