AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
640 AM EDT Wed Oct 24 2012

Updated Aviation Discussion.

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Looking at the long wave pattern this morning, we see a RIDGE
extending from the eastern U.S. north through Ontario to Hudson Bay.
A TROUGH is located over the western part of N. America. Surface
analysis shows HIGH PRESSURE centered off the Carolina coast ridging
westward across the southeastern states to TX. TS Sandy is moving
north across the Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica.

Little change is anticipated locally over the near term. While the
ridge will weaken somewhat to our north, Sandy will continue to move
northward and is forecast to briefly become a HURRICANE by this
evening AS it moves north of Jamaica. This will maintain a tight
GRADIENT across southeastern U.S. with easterly FLOW bringing
MOISTURE westward from the Atlantic. This should manifest itself
mainly in the form of CUMULUS clouds which will redevelop once again
today. While an ISOLATED SHOWER cannot be ruled out across our
eastern zones, POPS will be capped at silent 10 in those areas for
this afternoon. High TEMPS will be similar to those observed on
Tuesday with lower 80s north to MID 80s south. The increasing
moisture will maintain the recent moderating trend in MIN temps with
lows tonight only dipping to the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]…
All eyes will be on Sandy through this period. The STORM is forecast
to move north across the Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Sandy will
make its closest approach to FL Friday evening before being steered
off toward the northeast by the approaching upper level trough. Our
forecast area will continue to see offshore flow that will become
BREEZY by Friday. Temps will remain above NORMAL with highs
generally in the mid 80s and lows Thursday NIGHT mainly in the lower
60s. PoPs will be negligible.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]…
Not much change to the previous FCST reasoning or end results,
except for even greater confidence that the next AIR mass behind
the Cold FRONT over the weekend will be the coolest of the season
thus far. Before it passes through, we can expect one more warm
day over the CWA on SAT., with highs reaching the lower to middle
80s. While not weakening from a T/TD point of view, The Front
itself is expected to lose much of its moisture as it moves
through late on Sat. and Sat. night, with some additional drying
effects due to Sandy`s passage well off to our NE. Therefore, we
are still unable to justify anything higher than silent 10 PoPs,
with Temperatures dropping to near CLIMO levels on Sunday, before
falling to well below climo Mon-Wed on both Highs and Lows. High
Temps are expected to struggle to REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH the 70 degree mark through
this period, with LOW Temps possibly dropping into the upper 30s
to lower 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 12Z Thursday] While quite a FEW locations in the CWA did
have periods of MVFR VIS (with a couple of locations briefly
reaching IFR/LIFR levels), the fcst period of MVFR Vis was able to
elude our terminals overnight and early this morning, with VFR
conditions once again SET to prevail for the remainder of today and
tonight. There are some signs of potential MVFR Vis between 10 and
12 UTC towards Thu. morning once again, so did go with prevailing
5SM for ABY and VLD, as the greatest potential will be to the east.

&&

.MARINE…
A prolonged period of elevated winds is in progress over the marine
area. With strong high pressure north of the region, an easterly
flow regime is producing a NOCTURNAL SURGE with exercise caution
conditions this morning. Typical of this pattern, winds will slacken
off a bit during the day before increasing to cautionary levels once
again tonight into Thursday morning. After another brief lull
Thursday afternoon, winds will begin to back to the northeast in
response to Tropical Storm Sandy which will be moving northward
across the Bahamas. Our eastern waters will see ADVISORY conditions
Thursday night and Friday which will spread to the western waters by
Friday night. Cautionary to marginal advisory conditions will then
continue on through Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
It appears very clear that the fairly warm and somewhat humid
conditions will keep afternoon relative humidities safely away
from Red Flag levels for the rest of this week and into at least
the first half of the upcoming weekend. Behind the Cold Front,
however, much cooler and drier air will progressively filter into
the region from the northwest, which may result in Red Flag or
near Red Flag conditions for parts of the Tri-State area by the
beginning of next week.