TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 75.9W AT 25/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 9 NM N-NW OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND ABOUT 44 NM W-NW
OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MOVING N-NEW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB. RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE HURRICANE SANDY HAS
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS MAKES SANDY A STRONG CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. HURRICANE
SANDY MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 0525 UTC W OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER OVER
THE SW QUADRANT INCLUDING E JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN
74W-79W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W TO
15N74W…FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 70W-74W…AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 19N66W TO 24N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE GREATER
ANTILLES FROM 70W-78W. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA… HAITI…THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM TONY IS CENTERED NEAR 30.1N 40.3W AT 25/0300 OR
ABOUT 815 NM W-SW OF THE AZORES MOVING E-NE AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 39W-42W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM
25N43W TO 30N38W.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N37W TO 8N32W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-19N
BETWEEN 33W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 14N43W TO 7N45W MOVING W 5-10 KT.
WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 10N31W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WESTERN MOST TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 9N47W ALONG 10N53W TO 11N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
11W-18W AND FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 22W-33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 46W-51W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SW MEXICO AND THE W GULF TO
92W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF FROM ALABAMA
ALONG 23N87W TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF AGAIN TONIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA S OF 26N E OF 83W ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS
FROM HURRICANE SANDY. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. HURRICANE SANDY WILL
LIFT N ACROSS CUBA TONIGHT BRINGING STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THU EXPANDING INTO E HALF OF THE
GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA…
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT HURRICANE SANDY MOVING TOWARD
E CUBA…PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
16N W OF 82W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN
80W-86W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE SANDY. HURRICANE
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS E CUBA THIS MORNING INTO THE W
ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRI THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…
HURRICANE SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE W ATLC AND TROPICAL STORM
TONY IS MOVING INTO THE E ATLC…PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W TO BERMUDA DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N
TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM PUERTO RICO TO CUBA W OF 65W
TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 30N W OF 60W AND IS ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 325 NM E OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W
ALONG 25N45W NARROWING AS IT DIPS S INTO THE TROPICS TO 2N47W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N44W TO 21N49W.
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1018 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N30W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N21W TO 20N35W THEN N TO BEYOND 32N30W. HURRICANE SANDY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
LATE THU THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM
EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER ON SUN.