AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
639 AM EDT Thu Oct 25 2012

Updated Marine and Aviation Discussions.

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
The long wave pattern across the CONUS this morning features a
TROUGH over the west and a RIDGE over the east. Surface analysis
shows HIGH PRESSURE centered off the Carolina coast ridging
southwestward over the southeastern states into the Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, HURRICANE Sandy recently made LANDFALL (around 0525Z)
near Santiago De Cuba AS a strong category 2 hurricane.

Over the local area, skies are clear and we have yet to see any
VSBY reductions as of 06Z. However, several guidance members
indicate the potential for some FOG early this morning, mainly
over our GA zones and perhaps as far south as I-10 in the FL Big
Bend. A FEW of the HI-res models do show some showers trying to
move into our far eastern zones this afternoon. However, similar
to yesterday, we believe most of these will dissipate just before
reaching our zones. We feel a silent 10 POP best handle the
situation. It will be another very warm day with MAX TEMPS rising
to the MID 80s across most areas which is 5-8 degrees above
NORMAL. One or two upper 80s cannot be ruled out. LOW tonight will
generally be in the lower 60s, or some 7-9 degrees above normal.
Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out over our eastern zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]…
By Friday morning, the upper level trough will be positioned over
the Great Plains. It will then make slow eastward progress through
Saturday. This trough will continue to steer Sandy northward,
keeping it well east of our area. The 06Z ADVISORY from NHC shows
the CENTER of Sandy just east of Abaco Island in the northeast
Bahamas at 12Z Friday and then about 390 miles east of Jacksonville
by 18Z Saturday. This TRACK will MEAN a slight increase in northerly
breezes on Saturday over our region. Marine areas will see stronger
winds (see below). Temps will remain well above normal on Friday
with mid 80s common. A cold FRONT will move into our northwestern
zones late Friday NIGHT bringing MIN temps into the mid 50s in
Coffee County. Most of the rest of the area will see lows around 60.
The front will make slow eastward progress during the day Saturday
reaching an ABY-TLH line. Max temps will REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH the upper 70s to
lower 80s. This is still expected to be a dry frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]…
Still very little change to the CURRENT extended forecast, with ever
growing confidence that the airmass behind the next Cold Front
(which will be exiting the CWA on SAT. night) will clearly be the
coldest of the season thus far. This is shown well in the Numerical
and the Raw Model guidance, which is continuing to trend slightly
downward in both Max and Min Temps to levels well below CLIMO. Also,
this is expected to be a fairly long lived trend, with the colder
AIR beginning to impact the region on Sunday, but lingering well
into the middle of next week. This will LIKELY result in a few days
with  High Temps not getting out of the 60s, and Lows dipping into
the mid to upper 30s away from the coast. Also, believe that the GFS
solution with Hurricane Sandy (which should be extra-tropical by the
start of this period) does go a bit awry by Wed. and Thu., so will
not buy off on the 30-40% POPS suggested by the GFS derived MEX
guidance, and plan on sticking with silent 10s for this particular
time frame. This will keep the extended FCST essentially
PRECIPITATION free through the period.
&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 12Z Friday] As of 1035 UTC this morning, VLD has been the
only terminal to experience any restrictions thus far, but they have
just dropped down to LIFR level Cigs. With a large batch of Fog and
Low Cigs continuing to build to the east, still think that TLH has a
shot at a period of IFR conditions from 12 to 14 UTC, with MVFR
conditions possible at ABY and ECP. Decided to keep DHN at VFR for
the rest of today, as the sunshine is likely to erode this low
canopy before it can reach that far to the west. After any
restrictions have lifted, expect VFR conditions to prevail at all
sites today, with just a period of BKN VFR level CU possible this
afternoon. Fog and Low Cigs will likely be a concern tonight as
well, especially at the eastern terminals again.

&&

.MARINE…
The current episode of elevated winds over the marine area will
continue for the entire forecast period as winds gradually veer from
the east to the north and then northwest as distant Sandy gains
LATITUDE. WIND speeds will generally rise no higher than exercise
caution over the western legs. However, the eastern legs east of
Apalachicola should see advisory level winds (and offshore SEAS)
from late tonight into Saturday. The advisory conditions will spread
west to cover the entire forecast waters for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
In general Red Flag conditions are not expected during the next 2-3
days, as the CWA will remain quite warm and fairly humid in advance
of the approaching Cold Front. However, on Friday, due to the very
warm afternoon temperatures, high dispersions, along with marginal
relative HUMIDITY and ERCs, parts of the Interior Florida Panhandle
may just barely end up meeting criteria. Therefore, will hold off on
any WATCH/WARNING decisions for one more cycle, but it will be
possible that a very small (in area) Red Flag Warning may be needed
for this area later today. Behind the front, much cooler and drier
air will gradually filter into the region from the northwest
beginning on Sunday, and depending on afternoon temperatures,
relative humidities may reach Red Flag levels over parts of the
Tri-State area during the beginning of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrological concerns or significant river rises
expected over the next week across the area.