TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 26.4N 76.9W AT 26/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 13 NM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND ABOUT 417 NM S-SE OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70
KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 69W-79W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
21N66W TO 27N71W. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N42W TO 10N41W MOVING W 5-10
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF
14.5N42.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 38W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N48W TO 10N48W MOVING W 5-10
KT. A SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THE LOW IS NO LONGER EVIDENT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF
15N46W.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W 5N24W TO 5N31W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N43W 11N58W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 33W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 19W-30W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR FLORIDA THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE SANDY
BRINGING WIND AND RAIN TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…PLEASE SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W
GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING ACROSS MEXICO. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS. A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MOBILE ALABAMA INTO THE E GULF ALONG
25N86W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS OVER THE SW GULF WITH MOISTURE MOVING W
OVER THE SE GULF COMPLIMENTS OF HURRICANE SANDY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 27N E OF 85W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS OF HURRICANE SANDY. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER…SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE NW GULF SHORTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. LARGE FIELD OF
STRONG N TO NE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY IN THE W
ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE E GULF TO 90W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT THROUGH SUN AS SANDY MOVES N. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TODAY REACHING FROM THE W
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS SAT AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO N
YUCATAN PENINSULA MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA…
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING ARE THE REMNANT RAINS AND WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY…PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W TO OVER HONDURAS
NEAR 15N87W COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE DRY AIR THAT
COVERS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN THEN N ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TOWARD HURRICANE SANDY. A
SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN PANAMA/COSTA RICA TO E CUBA/HISPANIOLA ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 65W-76W AND FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN
72W-82W. HURRICANE SANDY OVER N BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION. STRONG SW WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND BETWEEN JAMAICA…CUBA…AND HAITI WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
TODAY THROUGH SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL SUN THEN STALL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE SANDY MOVING ALONG
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS…PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE
UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 24N59W THEN NW TO OVER NORTH
CAROLINA GENERATING AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N W
OF 63W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA…AND
FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 59W-63W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
THE N/CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N50W
ALONG 31N58W TO 32N67W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 25N24W. HURRICANE
SANDY WILL MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS NW AND N
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE NE FRI NIGHT CONTINUING
OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EARLY SUN.