AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 AM EDT Fri Oct 26 2012

.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]…Although HURRICANE Sandy will
remain well off to our east (over the Atlantic to the east of the FL
Peninsula), it still is expected to have some peripheral effects
over the CWA in combination with the approaching Upper Level TROF
and SFC Cold FRONT. This will be primarily due to Sandy`s large size
and expanding WIND field, along with a tightening PRESSURE GRADIENT
between Sandy and the approaching front. Also, the Upper Trof to our
W will help to steer Sandy to the N then NE AS it crosses our
LATITUDE on SAT. and Sat. NIGHT. For Today, the eastern half of the
CWA is already under a CIRRUS canopy from Sandy (which should reduce
the FOG and LOW CIG chances early this morning), and this should
continue to expand today. Also, winds will continue to increase in
magnitude over land and sea (with SCA conditions over much of the
marine area), and across the eastern half of the CWA sustained winds
of 15 mph, with gusts over 20mph, are expected later today. Finally,
although a brief SHOWER cannot be ruled out over the eastern 1/3 of
the region and the coastal waters today and tonight, could not
justify going any higher than silent 10 POPS at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]…With the pressure gradient
expected to be at its strongest on Saturday (due to Sandy to the
east and the approaching front to the west), sustained winds of 15
to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph are now FCST for much of the CWA.
Therefore, if the winds get any stronger than currently expected,
may need to consider a Wind ADVISORY. Also, the best chances for a
shower through the period will be over eastern portions of the CWA
on Saturday AFTN, with 20% PoPs PROGGED just to our east and silent
10s over our area. Then, after the weakening front (which is still
expected to lose its forerunning showers and storms) pushes through
the region on Sat. night, the much cooler and drier AIR will begin
to filter in from the NW. However, the more significant effects from
the very cool air will be felt from Sunday night into the middle of
next week, where both HIGH and Low TEMPS will to levels well below
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Friday]…A chilly airmass is
expected to dominate the extended forecast with  northwesterly FLOW
and high pressure nosing into the area in the WAKE of the large east
coast STORM. Highs could remain in the 60s early next week with lows
dipping well down into the 40s with some upper 30s also possible.
The airmass is expected to remain dry with PoPs less than 20 percent
through the period.
&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 06Z Saturday] Easterly flow will increase MOISTURE slightly
over the eastern half of the forecast area with the possibility of
some MVFR conditions at KTLH and IFR conditions at KABY and KVLD for
a FEW hours this morning. This is expected to be mainly in the form
of low cigs, but some patchy VIS restrictions are possible as well.
As daytime mixing commences, VFR conditions are expected to return
by MID-morning, but gusty NE winds will also develop with a
relatively tight pressure gradient in place due in part to Sandy off
the Atlantic coast.

&&

.MARINE…Although today may begin with only cautionary conditions
across the waters, increasing winds through today and tonight will
result in Small Craft Advisory levels to gradually overspread the
Coastal Waters from east to west. These elevated winds and SEAS are
now expected to linger into Saturday night, before diminishing back
just a bit late Saturday night into Sunday, so will lengthen the SCA
until 06Z on Sunday morning and spread it further to the west as
well. However, this may not be the end of the rough maritime
conditions, with another bout of SCA conditions expected by later on
Sunday and lingering into Tuesday. For the time being, will hold off
on a second Advisory until the timing of these conditions is more
certain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…In general, red flag conditions are not expected
through Saturday. However, fire danger is expected to elevate on
Monday and Tuesday behind a cold front with much lower RH expected
along with gusty northwest winds and dry fuels. Red flag conditions
look LIKELY at that time for at least portions of northwest Florida
and perhaps other areas as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…There are no hydrological concerns or significant river
rises expected over the next week across the area.