AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
634 AM EDT Wed Oct 31 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…

The far reaches of the remnants of Sandy will continue to provide
the local area with BREEZY conditions today. Expect frequent gusts
up to 25 mph for most locations. Otherwise, today will be slightly
warmer than yesterday with HIGH temperatures reaching the 70
degree mark area wide. No RAIN is expected today.

The continued strong winds, now shifting to a more westerly
direction will increase surf along westward facing Panhandle
beaches. The elevated winds and increased surf will create
dangerous rip CURRENT conditions along Bay and Gulf counties.
Reference our Coastal Hazard Message for more information.

Overnight, a piece of SHORTWAVE energy will rotate around the base
of the large eastern U.S. LOW PRESSURE and may generate SCATTERED
showers and an ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM or two over our coastal
waters. Land areas should remain dry with clouds clearing, and
lows bottoming out in the lower to middle 40s across Alabama and
Georgia, and near 50 degrees across inland areas of north Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]…

Through the end of the week the east coast TROUGH will gradually pull north, and surface high pressure will build into the region. The main effect from this will be a gradual warming trend with both afternoon and overnight temperatures. Expect highs to climb through the middle and upper 70s, with overnight low slowly climbing to the 50 degree mark by Friday NIGHT. No rain is
expected both Thursday and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]…

The latest available GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement,
showing the next cold FRONT passage (albeit slow) Sunday night and
Monday. The synoptic low level FLOW leading up to this frontal
passage does not look very conducive for a major influx of deep
layer MOISTURE and/or INSTABILITY, so the POP for this period
(20-30%) is not that far above CLIMATOLOGY. Temperatures will be
well above average through Sunday, especially during the daytime
when highs will REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH the lower to MID 80s. Temperatures will return
to near average behind the cold front Tuesday and Wednesday, with
Monday being somewhat of a transition day.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12 UTC Thursday]…

Updated at 0630 EDT-
The short wave moving southeast over our region this morning has
some areas of broken cigs, but these VFR cigs are up around 25k
FT. Winds will increase to 8 to 14 KT by late this morning or
early afternoon, with occasional gusts of 20 to 25 KT. Winds will
become light by SUNSET. VIS will be unlimited through at least
12 UTC Thursday, and cigs will be unlimited AS well, after the VFR
cigs move east later this morning.

&&

.MARINE…

Strong winds generated by the pressure difference between the
remnants of Sandy and high pressure in the Gulf will diminish
gradually as what was Sandy weakens and moves north. However,
Cautionary conditions are expected to continue through tonight
before winds and SEAS go CALM by Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…

This will be one of those days when conditions will be close to our
various local Red Flag criteria. After coordinating with our
surrounding offices, we decided to drop the watches for GA & AL and
keep the WARNING for all our FL zones for today. The modest
moistening trend should prevent AL from meeting critical conditions,
and the fuel moisture is not quite low enough in south GA. We will
issue a Fire WX WATCH for all our FL counties for Thursday, as
conditions will be similar to today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY

Since there has been no heavy rain in our region for several
weeks, and since rain is unlikely for the next several days, river
stages will remain below action levels.