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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 29 2012

.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]…
Updated at: 700 am EST

The dense FOG overnight developed just outside our area, but over
the past couple hours (09-11z), the STRATUS has expanded across our
area in the light east to southeast FLOW in a 0-1km layer with HIGH
RH. This poses some concerns for the forecast. The GOES combined fog
product suggests that the stratus is at least 400m thick in many
areas, and stratus layers can occasionally take awhile to erode in
the presence of a strong INVERSION. Therefore, we bumped up CLOUD
cover for the morning hours across much of the area. The forecast
high temperatures were nudged down only one degree, AS the model
guidance suggests the stratus should scatter out at some point.
However, the temperatures for the morning were cooled quite a bit
such that 16z (11am EST) values RANGE from about 50-55 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]…
A decrease in the 850mb temperatures in the easterly flow regime
should be balanced by deeper mixing on successive days to produce
a gradual warming trend on Friday and Saturday. We will remain
under the influence of the LOW-level RIDGE axis, so dry and SUNNY
weather looks to continue on those two days. The only exception
may be, again, over the coastal waters where perhaps an ISOLATED
SHOWER or two may develop. A mention of RAIN was not added to the
Coastal Waters Forecast at this time, however.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday NIGHT through next Thursday]…
A low-AMPLITUDE pattern is forecast to be in place to start the
extended period and continue into early next week across the CONUS.
This will keep the weather dry through early Tuesday. With heights
relatively high, temperatures will be above NORMAL, with highs in
the MID 70s and lows in the low 50s.

By Tuesday, a TROUGH of modest amplitude will move into the eastern
states and push a cold FRONT towards the northern gulf coast. This
front should provide a CHANCE of rain late Tuesday into Wednesday,
with a slightly cooler and drier airmass moving into the region for
late Wednesday into Thursday. The progressive nature of the upper
pattern should keep any significantly colder AIR well to the north.

&&

.AVIATION [through 06z Friday]…
Low CIGS, which persisted for most of Wednesday, have finally mostly
dissipated early this morning. However, guidance does indicate some
MVFR CIGS returning to KTLH by SUNRISE. Latest satellite imagery
showing some signs of this forecast bearing out. Elsewhere, MVFR
VISIBILITY possible through sunrise. Thereafter, VFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.MARINE…
Easterly flow will continue for the foreseeable future as the
general position of the surface high PRESSURE and ridge axis will
change very little over the next 3-5 days. Therefore, we should
continue to see overnight winds increase to around 15 knots or so
with periodic SCEC conditions, and winds decreasing to 10-15 knots
during the daytime hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Easterly flow over the next several days will keep HUMIDITY
values well above 35 percent for the entire region. No red flag
conditions are anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
A dry stretch of weather will keep river levels relatively similar
over the next FEW days, with no flooding expected.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
625 AM EST Wed Nov 28 2012

.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]…
Updated at: 515 am EST

The Dense FOG ADVISORY that was previously in effect for portions
of the area has been cancelled. Between 04z and 08z there were a
FAIR number of observations in SW Georgia that had visibilities
at 1/4SM or 1/2SM, but a recent increase in winds has caused
VISIBILITY to improve areawide. Despite a small CHANCE that a couple
of the observations could see visibility dip briefly in patchy fog
early this morning, the PROBABILITY no longer seems HIGH enough to
warrant an advisory.

A frontal INVERSION should keep the mixed layer relatively shallow
today, which will keep temperatures cooler than the +10 to +11C
850mb temperatures would suggest. In shallow CAA regimes just
after a cold FRONT passage, the morning temperatures tend to be
slower to increase than the typical DIURNAL curve. The TEMPERATURE
curve was nudged down in the morning to account for this. However,
with breaks of sun LIKELY to develop by afternoon we are still
expecting highs to get into the 60s just about everywhere.

For tonight, some MOS guidance is still indicating lows close to
freezing in our SE Alabama zones. However, it would take a very
strong inversion to produce lows of those values given the
temperature profile in the 925-850mb layer. That is not expected
to be the case, and so despite clear skies and lighter winds the
lows should mainly stay in the 37-42 degree RANGE. These types of
lows would also prevent FROST in most spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]…
A lingering LOW-level RIDGE of high PRESSURE along the Atlantic
seaboard will keep east to northeast FLOW in place across much of
the east coast. This pattern should prevent rapid modification of
the cooler AIR mass that will be in place. However, highs should
increase a couple degrees each day at the end of the work week
with mostly SUNNY skies and a deeper mixed layer each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday NIGHT through next Wednesday]…
Guidance is in good agreement that the flow across the CONUS will
continue to be fast and primarily zonal through early next week. The
primary JET and any associated disturbances are forecast to remain
well north of the forecast area through next Tuesday, before digging
southward by midweek and driving a cold front towards the Gulf
Coast. Before this TROUGH digs southward, expect an upper ridge to
develop over the gulf and nose northeast across the area.

The impact of this upper pattern will be for warmer than NORMAL
temperatures into early next week, with minimal RAIN chances. Expect
highs in the MID 70s with lows generally in the lower 50s. Rain
chances will be introduced for late Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of
the approaching cold front.

&&

.AVIATION [through 12z Thursday]…
Low CIGS & fog currently dominate the region with IFR conditions
ongoing at all terminals. Expect conditions to improve after
SUNRISE, with the fog burning off before cigs lift. VFR conditions
are anticipated by afternoon and will continue through tonight with
light north to northeast winds.

&&

.MARINE…
With the 4am CWF issuance, we plan to maintain the SCEC headline
across all but the far eastern nearshore zones (Apalachee Bay and
along Taylor and Dixie Counties) through mid-morning. The latest
buoy and tower observations continue to indicate winds around
15-16 knots over the bulk of the coastal waters, with a FEW gusts
to around 20 knots. A 0315z ASCAT pass also showed a sizable swath
of 15-20 KNOT winds, which matched well with RAP and local WRF
(which were used AS the basis for the updated WIND forecast in the
first 12 hours). Winds quickly veer to the east by tonight as high
pressure settles into the Southeast, setting up the typical surges
of easterly winds at night over the next few days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
A slightly drier airmass will filter into the region today in the
WAKE of a cold front. However, HUMIDITY values are not forecast to
REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH critical levels, and ERC values should remain below thresholds
following Tuesdays RAINFALL. By Thursday into the weekend, easterly
flow is forecast to bring in enough Atlantic MOISTURE to keep RH
values above critical levels. No Red Flag conditions are expected
through the end of the work week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Rainfall totals over the past 24 hours ranged from NIL or TRACE
amounts near the Suwannee River in the eastern Florida Big Bend,
to around an inch in southeast Alabama. These rain amounts are not
expected to cause any notable changes in the area rivers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2012

.NEAR TERM [through this afternoon]…
The upper FLOW along the northern Gulf coast will remain
primarily zonal today, with the nearest amplified SHORTWAVE
digging into the central plains. At the surface, HIGH PRESSURE
centered over south Georgia this morning, will slide east during
the day, allowing for some weak return flow west to develop by
this afternoon. MOISTURE will not be sufficient for any
PRECIPITATION today.

After a chilly start, with temperatures near freezing away from
the coast, the airmass should modify noticably this afternoon.
Expect to see high temperatures 5-7 degrees warmer than Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]…
By tonight, the aforementioned central plains shortwave is
forecast to dig southeastward and interact with a fast moving
shortwave embedded in the subtropical JET. A cold FRONT associated
with these features will push southeastward towards the region AS
well. The left-exit region of the subtropical jet and the right-
entrance region of the polar jet are forecast to align late Monday
NIGHT into Tuesday across the tri-state area, providing a boost in
upward velocities across the region.

Despite anemic LOW-level forcing with this system, the upper
forcing is expected to be strong enough to generate a broad area
of showers starting late Monday night across the western zones,
and spreading eastward into Tuesday afteroon. By late Tuesday
afternoon, the subtropical jet will push east of the forecast
area, rapidly diminishing the upper forcing, and bring the precip
to an end. The progressive nature of the pattern will limit
RAINFALL totals, with amounts of a quarter to half an inch.

The ensuing frontal passage will be rather meager, given the
rapid return to zonal upper flow. Therefore, temperatures on
Wednesday will be very close to seasonal norms.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]…
The extended forecast will feature a predominately zonal flow
across the continental US. The 500mb HEIGHT trend over the time
frame in question is approximately +50m, and the subtly building
RIDGE will favor warming temperatures. However, the low-level
ANTICYCLONE over the Southeast is LIKELY to anchor a cooler AIR
mass in place a bit longer, so the warming trend should be
gradual. By Monday, the GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 2m TEMPERATURE
departures over most of the CONUS are above NORMAL, including all
of the ensemble members over our area. With normal highs Monday
(Dec 3rd) in Tallahassee around 68 – this likely spells a stretch
of days with highs in the 70s at the end of the extended RANGE
forecast. Despite some sporadic light QPF from a FEW of the global
models, there is little continuity on timing or spatial extent
(plus an overall lack of forcing). Therefore, POPS were capped at
a silent 14% to produce a dry forecast.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Tuesday]…
Updated at: 630 am
Light winds and VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through
the duration of the TAF period. BKN-OVC skies are likely to develop
around SUNSET today, and ceilings should gradually lower from
10-15kft through 4-6kft by 12z Tuesday. Showers and the possibility
of some MVFR ceilings should mostly hold off until after 12z Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE…
Winds and SEAS will remain minimal through Tuesday as the
pressure GRADIENT remains weak. A cold front will cross the waters
late Tuesday night followed by an increase in offshore winds.
Winds will then shift to the northeast and east by the end of the
workweek. At this time, winds are forecast to remain below
headline criteria throughout the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
The driest air mass, and thus lowest afternoon minimum RH, today
will be found over the eastern half of the area. Winds will be
light and dispersions low, so the only areas that will likely see
red flag criteria MET would be Florida zones where the ERC is
forecast to be at least 35. This only appears to affect Leon and
Wakulla counties, where long durations of low relative HUMIDITY
are also expected. The existing Fire Weather WATCH for Bay and
Washington counties will be cancelled, as forecast RH is higher
than 35% now. Increasing moisture thereafter should limit fire
weather concerns for the remainder of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Rainfall expected with this week`s frontal system will not be
sufficient to produce significant river rises.

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
136 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

…LIGHT FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…SOUTH GEORGIA…AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BED…EXCEPT FOR THE PANHANDLE BEACHES…

.A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING…BRINGING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTH GEORGIA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING…THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM. THE COMBINATION OF VERY DRY AIR…CLEAR SKIES…CALM WIND…AND INCREASINGLY LONG LATE AUTUMN NIGHTS…WILL ALLOW STRONG COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN ON SUNDAY.

EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY MORNING…THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF LIGHT FREEZE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. AREAS OF FROST ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AS WELL…EVEN AT LOCATIONS WHERE THE TEMPERATURES STAY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING POINT.

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161- 251400-
/O.UPG.KTAE.FZ.A.0002.121125T0700Z-121125T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.FZ.W.0002.121125T0700Z-121125T1400Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY- RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE… TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE… SWEETWATER…CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY… GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON… MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…
SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER…ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA… DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM… MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS…NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…
BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE…QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND 136 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 /1236 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2012/

Freeze warning in effect from 2 AM EST /1 AM cst/ to 9 AM EST /8 AM cst/ sunday…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a freeze warning, which is in effect from 2 AM EST /1 AM cst/ to 9 AM EST /8 AM cst/ sunday.

* temperature, low temperatures from 27 to 32 degrees, with the coldest readings in open fields away from urban areas and
beaches. temperatures in more heavily urbanized areas like downtown tallahassee will remain above freezing.

* duration (1 to) 3 hours.

* impacts, because this will be a rather brief, light
freeze, the primary impact will be to vegetation. water pipes and automobiles are not affected by these types of freezes.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. these conditions can damage crops and other sensitive vegetation.

&&

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
402 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

…A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA…

…THE FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE COAST…

.A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE…HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY SETTLING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS YIELDING CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. PREDAWN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND 30 FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH COLDEST SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. FOR THIS REASON A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA…

ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-231715-
/O.EXA.KTAE.FZ.A.0002.121125T0700Z-121125T1400Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN- TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY- MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR- GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…GEORGETOWN…
FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON…MORGAN…EDISON… LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER… ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY… COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS… NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE… QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND
402 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 /302 AM CST FRI NOV 23 2012/

Freeze watch in effect from late saturday night through sunday morning…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a freeze watch, which is in effect from late saturday night through
sunday morning.

* temperature (28 to) 32 degrees for up to 4 hours.

* impacts, residents should consider bringing all animals and sensitive plants indoors.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a freeze watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible. these conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1019 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through This Afternoon]…
Area of STRATUS clouds remains in place across the central portion
of the region this morning and are only slowly eroding on the
edges AS heating continues. This deck will be slowest to thin in
the middle, which means areas along a line from TLH-ABY will
LIKELY stay CLOUDY well into the afternoon hours and as such
expect temperatures to remain only in the MID to upper 60s there.
An approaching upper disturbance will likely help generate a FEW
sprinkles at times across far Southeastern Alabama and into
Southwestern Georgia this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday NIGHT Through Thursday]…
Benign weather is expected starting tonight. An upper level
disturbance will move through the area on Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning with little fanfare other than a few passing
clouds. HIGH temperatures are expected to remain near the seasonal
average, and lows may dip a couple of degrees below NORMAL by
Wednesday night with mainly clear skies and a slightly drier
airmass in place.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]…
The next UPSTREAM TROUGH will be tracking across the Upper Midwest
approaching the Great Lakes at the start of the period. Short
wave energy in the base of the trough near the ArkLaTex will
dissipate as it moves eastward into Dixie even as the long wave
trough deepens across the eastern U.S. Lower levels will remain
dry. Therefore, even though a cold FRONT will cross the area
Friday, it is expected to be RAIN-free. TEMPS will remain mild
ahead of the front, but turn cooler for the weekend. Look for
highs 65 to 70 Saturday and Sunday with overnight lows dropping
back into the 30s. Early next week, another frontal system will be
organizing over the Southern High Plains. The GFS is quicker to
bring the system eastward than the 19/12Z Euro. With timing
uncertainties as they are, will go with LOW POPS from late Monday
into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 15Z Tuesday]…
[Through 12z Wednesday] A broken to OVERCAST stratus deck with
bases around 4000 FT is slowly eroding, but will impact most area
terminals for a few hours this morning before SCATTERING out by
this afternoon. Winds will be light out of the north.

&&

.MARINE…
Offshore FLOW will continue through the week and into the weekend.
Winds are expected to approach or briefly REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH cautionary levels
through the work week and then increase to solid cautionary levels
Friday night into Saturday across the offshore segments and
possibly portions of the near shore segments as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Red flag conditions are not expected today with relative HUMIDITY
values forecast to remain above critical levels. MIN RH is
forecast to dip just below 35 percent on Wednesday and Thursday
across portions of the FL Big Bend. DISPERSION indices are
forecast to be over 75 Wednesday afternoon, so a WATCH or WARNING
many need to be issued by the next shift for that day for portions
of the FL Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
With little or no RAINFALL expected during the next several days,
no significant river rises are anticipated.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
634 AM EST Mon Nov 19 2012

.UPDATE…Aviation section for 12Z TAF package.

&&

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…
The only real forecast issue today is the possibility of some
clouds rotating back into portions of the area AS LOW PRESSURE
continues to spin off the Atlantic coast. The greatest CLOUD cover
is expected to reside across northeastern portions of the area,
which will be closer to the upper level low and slightly higher
MOISTURE. This could act to hold temperatures down a couple of
degrees compared to other areas, with values generally ranging
from the upper 60s northeast to lower 70s southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]…
As the upper level low east of the area pulls away, skies are
expected to clear out area-wide, especially by Tuesday NIGHT. A
moisture starved upper level disturbance will pivot through the
area on Wednesday morning with little fanfare. HIGH pressure is
expected to be the dominant surface feature with temperatures near
the seasonal average.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through next Monday]…
The long wave TROUGH will be exiting the area to the east at the
start of the period followed by a short wave RIDGE on Thursday. A
short wave will sweep by well to our north on Friday and that will
be followed by a period of mainly zonal FLOW aloft through the
weekend. Surface high pressure will generally be in control
through this period. Therefore, benign weather is expected to
continue through the weekend with all POPS below 15 percent. MIN
temperatures will be a FEW degrees below NORMAL through the period
with highs near seasonal levels Thursday and Friday before
dropping below normal for the weekend. By Monday, return flow will
commence as high pressure moves east. A frontal system will be
moving into the Lower MS Valley and slight CHANCE PoPs are
included for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 12Z Tuesday] We continued the trend of going less
pessimistic with the low STRATUS, which has remained just north
and east of the area all night. The latest NARRE and WRF time
HEIGHT cross sections indicate that MVFR ceilings are still
possible during the 12-18Z time period at ABY and VLD and this
appears to be supported by the last few satellite images. We also
included a period of MVFR VISIBILITY late tonight at these two
terminals. Elsewhere, the forecast is VFR.

&&

.MARINE…
Marginal cautionary winds have been occurring this morning beyond
20 NM offshore. These conditions are expected to continue through
the morning hours with slightly lower winds and SEAS closer to the
coast. A gradual decrease in winds and seas is expected later this
afternoon and tonight. Winds are expected to have a northerly
component through the period with brief bouts of cautionary
conditions possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days
with relative HUMIDITY values forecast to remain above critical
levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
With little or no RAINFALL expected during the next several days,
no significant river rises are anticipated.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
628 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2012

…Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion…

.SYNOPSIS
The long wave pattern across North America this morning features a
RIDGE out west and a TROUGH across the east. Water vapor imagery
indicates one short wave departing the southeastern U.S. AS it moves
off the NC coast while another is approaching from the northwest.
Surface analysis shows a weak LOW off the SC coast with sprawling
HIGH PRESSURE centered over IN and ridging southward to the Gulf of
Mexico. Northeast low level FLOW between the two pressure centered
continues to be advect plenty of MOISTURE into the region beneath a
strong INVERSION (based at 900 MB per the 00Z KTAE SOUNDING). There
is insufficient lift to produce even sprinkles at this time, but
skies remain OVERCAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM [Today]…
The low clouds will be very slow erode today. However, we do expect
some breaks by afternoon. Yesterday, TEMPS failed to make it out of
the 50s (for the first time at TLH since Feb 26), which was 14-18
degrees below NORMAL. Today we should see MID 60s if we get the
anticipated afternoon breaks. If these breaks fail to appear, we
could struggle to REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH 60 again. Mid 60s are still 7-9 degrees
below normal. POPS will be capped at silent 10.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Sunday]…
By tonight, the UPSTREAM short wave will be moving across AL and the
FL Panhandle. DPVA ahead of the system may provide just enough lift
to eek out a FEW sprinkles of light RAIN across our southeastern
zones. MIN temps will be near normal in those area, but a few
degrees below normal (lower to mid 40s) across the rest of the area.
The short wave will inch eastward on Saturday with mainly increased
cloudiness the result. A slight CHANCE POP will be maintained over
Dixie and Lafayette Counties and MAX temps will once again be below
normal, generally in the mid 60s. The upper support will be east of
the area by Saturday NIGHT as a weak upper low tries to cut off near
the GA coast. PoPs will be held to 10 or less and we will see some
more breaks in the CLOUD cover which will allow max temps to
moderate a few degrees on Sunday (upper 60s and lower 70s).

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday night through next Friday]…
Rather benign weather is expected for next week with a progressive
pattern in place. An upper level SHORTWAVE will pass through the
area around mid-week, but moisture returns looks rather anemic at
this time, so the official forecast left a mention of showers out of
the forecast with PoPs only around 10 percent. Overall, a dry week
appears to be shaping up with near seasonal temperatures.

&&

.MARINE…
With high pressure expected to remain situated north of the Gulf of
Mexico through much of the forecast period, winds will remain
primarily out of the northeast. The GRADIENT should be sufficient to
bring a return of exercise caution conditions by Saturday morning
which should persist through the weekend. Winds should remain
moderate, but just below headline criteria for Monday and then
further decrease by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 12z Saturday] MVFR to IFR cigs are expected to continue at
all of the TAF sites through the morning hours. By the afternoon,
the low cloud shield is expected to start eroding gradually from
west to east. This may allow some sites such as KDHN, KABY, and KECP
to break out into VFR conditions by the early to mid afternoon
hours. However, farther east around KTLH and KVLD, the low cigs are
expected to hold through much of the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
relative HUMIDITY values forecast to remain above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
With very little RAINFALL expected during the next several days, no
significant river rises are anticipated.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
546 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2012

.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]…
The main forecast challenge for the next 12 hours will be how
resilient the STRATUS deck that currently envelopes the entire area
will be. Based on water vapor loops from 05-07z, we appear to be
entering the region of NVA and SUBSIDENCE in the WAKE of a potent
MID-upper level PV ANOMALY / SHORTWAVE TROUGH. The changes AS a
result of this were demonstrated on the 00z JAN (Jackson, MS) and
OHX (Nashville, TN) soundings relative to the 12z soundings from
both locations. The 00z soundings showed lowering of the subsidence
INVERSION with considerable mid-level drying. Meanwhile, the 00z TAE
SOUNDING showed a deep saturated layer up to about 8000 FT (750mb)
with a subsidence inversion up around 650mb. As mid-level drying and
subsidence increase this morning across the area, the stratus layer
should gradually get thinned and eroded through mixing of drier
mid-level AIR. How quickly that process occurs will have notable
impacts on the TEMPERATURE forecast.

The consensus of model guidance appears to be that by mid-late
afternoon, enough mixing will occur to erode the clouds south and
west of a EUF-VLD line. MET MOS and ECMWF MOS seem to capture this
best, so they were used for the HIGH temperature forecast. This
should lead to highs in the 60s SW of the EUF-VLD line, and mid-50s
to the NE of that. RAIN showers and some patchy DRIZZLE should end
from west to east pretty quickly this morning as the aforementioned
shortwave departs the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday through Saturday]…
Friday looks to be a dry day with a bit more sunshine than we will
have seen the previous two days. Continued northeasterly FLOW below
800mb will anchor a cooler air mass in place across the area. In
fact, some of the models show 850mb temperatures cooling from
Thursday into Friday. This should result in another day with below
NORMAL temperatures. For Saturday, a digging shortwave trough should
become CUTOFF over the Southeastern US from the main branch of the
JET stream. The approaching mid-upper level wave may lead to the
slow development of a frontal wave from the coastal Carolinas into
the northeast Gulf of Mexico. This scenario would probably lead to
some SCATTERED showers, mainly over the far eastern parts of our
area, as well as some of our coastal waters.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday NIGHT through next Thursday]…
The large scale longwave pattern that commences the period is
highlighted by trough with axis just off West Coast, ridging over
the SRN Plains EWD THRU E/CNTRL gulf, then split flow over ERN most
CONUS with ridging over NRN states, and shortwaves DEEPENING trough
over SRN states and NE Gulf with cutoff LOW invcnty of local area
and dry NW/W flow overspreading local area. At surface, strong high
over Que with RIDGE axis SWWD across entire Gulf region.

During the rest of the period, as initial upper srn stream shortwave
exits EWD shunting trough offshore Sun into Sun night, weak upper
ridging or quasi-zonal flow takes hold as a drier airmass will
continue to overspread the region from NW-SE. At surface, ridge
holds while a low develops under upper trough off SE Coast by Sun.
This combination providing N/NE low level local flow with tightening
GRADIENT (so FOG unlikely but low stratus possible) and further
dries our local area. EURO and GFS continue to diverge by Sun night.
Both show drying trend TIL at least Tues but former more aggressive,
farther south and stronger with cutoff low and thus slower in moving
trough off ERN seaboard and in pulling surface low NEWD. Conversely,
GFS which reabsorbs low into open wave, begins and ends local
MOISTURE earlier. So, overall confidence in forecast not high and
will blend.

Models show next trough exiting Rockies on Mon, MS Valley on Tues
and into SE region on Wed.  Assocd weak upper level shortwave moving
EWD ahead of trough shifts zonal flow to weak cyclonic late Tues
into Wed,and helps erode local surface ridge with an increase in
clouds. This time GFS more bullish with another trough and surface
REFLECTION invcnty local region yielding next CHANCE of rain over NE
Gulf while EURO rather dry. Again until I see some consistency will
favor blend and show modest uptick in PRECIPITATION.

Forecast continues to be mostly dry one and will go with NIL POPS
thru Tues, then WDLY SCT Tues night and sct on Wed. MIN TEMPS will
hover around CLIMO SAT thru Mon nights before rising to slightly
above climo Tues and Wed nights. MAX temps to run several degrees
below normal to commence the period, then around climo for rest of
period. AVG inland min/max is 45/70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION [through 12 UTC Friday]…
Updated at 545 AM EST-
Although the disturbance responsible for the rain will pass the
area by this morning, moist NELY flow will make low clouds slow to
mix out thru the day. So OCNL drizzle will linger Ern areas and
persistent low ceilings will continue thru the day and for Ern
terminals past SUNSET. In general, skies will very slowly scatter
out to VFR from west to east so MVFR conds much of the day with LCL
IFR KVLD into this morning with rain clearing from west to east.
AFTR 06z, expect MVFR cigs to again redevelop except at KECP with
possible IFR towards SUNRISE at KVLD.

&&

.MARINE…
With surface high PRESSURE expected to dominate the weather pattern
over the eastern US through early next week, offshore flow is
expected to continue for the foreseeable future. From Friday night
through early Monday morning, there will be chances for SCEC winds
(or perhaps even borderline SC.Y winds well offshore). The strongest
winds will be with typical NOCTURNAL increases from about 03-12z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
HUMIDITY values are forecast to remain well above critical levels
through Friday, with no red flag conditions expected into the middle
of the upcoming work week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Gauge-adjusted QPE suggests that RAINFALL amounts across the area
were generally less than 0.10″ over the past 24 hours, with little
additional rainfall expected in the upcoming 24 hours. Therefore, no
significant river rises are expected.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
411 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2012

.NEAR TERM [through Tonight]…
Shallow northeasterly FLOW below a lingering frontal INVERSION (AS
sampled by surface observations and RADAR VWPs) continues across
the Southeast region. The moist northeast flow in the lowest 1km
has aided the PROPAGATION and development of a STRATUS layer into
our forecast area from coastal Georgia and South Carolina. The
vast majority of BUFR forecast soundings from the operational
forecast models, as well as individual SREF members, indicate that
the shallow, moist layer near the surface will persist through the
day as the flow in that SAME layer pivots to the ENE/E. In fact,
the SREF TEMPERATURE and dewpoint profiles below 2km show very
good agreement today, deviating mostly less than 2C from the
ENSEMBLE MEAN. Therefore, it is not surprising that the SREF and
NARRE ensemble probabilities of a CLOUD CEILING less than 3000 FT
at 18z today are over 80% over much of our forecast area. Putting
it all together, confidence has increased that we will see a
stratus layer persist through tonight, which should restrict the
DIURNAL temperature RANGE and keep highs today from the MID-50s
along our northern border, to the mid-60s in the I-10 corridor.

Meanwhile, increasing southerly flow just above the frontal
inversion in advance of a digging SHORTWAVE TROUGH should lead to
increasing isentropic ascent across the area today. In general,
guidance POPS have increased over the past several model runs.
The majority of the 4km WRF runs (local and NCEP) develop fairly
WIDESPREAD showers late in the morning and through the evening.
Thus, PoPs were trended up. In the weather GRIDS, the showers
were paired with patchy DRIZZLE wording north of I-10 today. Model
forecast soundings show some slight UVV coincident with the
saturated layer (stratus) in these areas. Overall, a cool and
CLOUDY day is expected with occasional light drizzle or showers
developing by late morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]…
The OUTLOOK” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>OUTLOOK for the end of the work week is for slightly cooler
than NORMAL temperatures to prevail, with drier weather and a bit
more sunshine. The northeast flow in the lowest 1km AGL” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>AGL appears
LIKELY to continue, and it could anchor a cooler LOW-level AIR
mass in the area. Differences arise in the forecast soundings,
with the GFS dissipating the frontal inversion and the NAM
maintaining it with the potential for low stratus to linger into
Friday. Although that is a possibility (and would lead to cooler
temperatures than are currently forecast), the uncertainties led
us to opt for a blended consensus at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday NIGHT through next Wednesday]…
The large scale longwave pattern that commences the period is
highlighted by trough with axis just off West Coast, and split flow
over East half of CONUS with ridging over NRN states, and troughing
over SRN states with low becoming CUTOFF from nrn branch of JET
stream over WRN KY. At surface, strong HIGH over NRN PA with RIDGE
axis SWWD across entire Gulf region.

During the rest of the period, pattern becomes highly amplified.
Several shortwave over upper Midwest dive SEWD and deepen trough
over SE region THRU the weekend. Then the EURO and GFS diverge with
former placing cutoff low near Gulf Coast and thus wetter solution
and latter shows low across CNTRL Appalachians and drier solution so
overall confidence regarding latter part of extended not high. For
now will blend but lean towards drier solution. So trough and assocd
low pivot into TN Valley early SAT then REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH NRN GA late Sat
providing a little upper MOISTURE, but its impact will be mainly
clouds and over our NRN counties. Then low slowly lifts offshore by
early Mon allowing strong ridging to expand EWD into Gulf region
keeping local area on west or dry side of trough with dry N/NE flow
aloft. Then trough gets nudged NEWD with quasi-zonal flow aloft into
Wed.  At surface high PRESSURE will move ENE and be reinforced over
New England with ridge holding firm thru Tues. At same time,
amplified trough near Cuba combines with Conus trough to induce
CYCLOGENESIS off Carolina Coast beginning Sat night. The combination
of strong New England high and Carolina low will reinforce offshore
flow over NE Gulf before low retreats NEWD allowing some Gulf
moisture return on Wed.

Forecast continues to be mostly dry one and will go with NIL POPS
except for WDLY SCT shwrs on Wed. MIN TEMPS will hover slightly
below CLIMO until rising to climo Tues night. With strong NLY flow
dominating extended period, expect MAX temps to run several degrees
below normal for mid-November. AVG inland min/max is 45/70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 09Z Wednesday]…
MVFR with OCNL IFR cigs will linger thru most of the period as
moist northeast flow persists and low stratus becomes trapped
under inversion. Isentropic lift will generate some showers or
more likely occasional drizzle or sprinkles around the area, with
CAM/WRF/local confidence tool all show best CHANCE at KABY, and
lesser chance at KDHN and KVLD mainly after 16z. For now will
include -DZ at KABY, elsewhere the chance did not appear quite
high enough to include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.MARINE…
The strong offshore flow appears to have peaked around 05-06z and
has since fallen to just below 15 knots. Therefore, the FEW hours
of SCEC conditions over most of the waters have generally abated,
and the headline has been removed with the most recent CWF
issuance. Offshore flow will continue through the entire CWF
period (through Sunday) with some SCEC conditions possible during
some of the overnight periods – particularly around the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Strong high pressure will build north of the region through
Thursday. this will yield persistent low clouds and a cooler and
more moist airmass over the region. This will maintain relative
humidities well above critical levels as well as low mixing heights
and dispersions. The airmass will begin to dry out on Friday with
red flag humidities possible over the weekend, especially across the
inland Panhandle.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Light RAIN or drizzle is expected over portions of the area over
the next 24 hours, but total RAINFALL is expected to be limited.
QPF should be less than 0.4 inches across the area, and therefore
no significant fluctuations in river levels are forecast.

Back when men were men.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
648 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

.NEAR TERM [Today]…
LOW level MOISTURE has increased across the region overnight.
However increasing clouds with the approaching system has killed
chances of FOG so will update to drop fog from GRIDS.

The large scale longwave pattern remains highly amplified yet
progressive with ridging over WRN most states, troughing EWD to
ERN seaboard and ridging over extreme Wrn Atlc. TROUGH axis from
524dm low over N Dakota/Canadian border with axis down Ern Great
Plains. At surface, HIGH gradually retreating Ewd along Atlc
seaboard but still ridging strongly SWWD from offshore New England
to the Ern Gulf of MEX maintaining moderate ELY winds below
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION across local area. A cold FRONT is crossing
the MS River accompanied by showers and ISOLATED thunderstorms.
However, much of the activity is post-frontal and the CONVECTION
has been weakening considerably overnight.

During the next 24hrs, the upper trough will gradually lose
AMPLITUDE with the SRN end flattening AS primary SHORTWAVE helps
lift trough and most of assocd DYNAMICS/lift E/NE towards the MS
Valley today and OH Valley/Great Lakes region THRU tonight. Still,
this will essentially end any lingering influence of Ern RIDGE. All
this will serve to drive cold front SEWD albeit in a weakened and
slower form. Front moves across WRN TN/MS around SUNRISE then across
local region W-E during the EVE exiting SE Big Bend before
sunrise Tues. The tight GRADIENT of recent days will slacken with
the VEERING winds assocd with the approach of the front.

The onset of RAIN will be slow in coming with much of it along and
just behind the front as STRATIFORM rain with a rather sharp NW-SE
POP gradient. Models agree in a gradual weakening of rain band as
main HEIGHT falls lift more NEWD yielding increasingly thinning
moisture axis. In fact, in spite of forecasted nearly unidirectional
WIND profiles near the front, thermodynamic environment is
unimpressive and the shallow post-frontal nature of the
PRECIPITATION and lack of UPSTREAM LIGHTNING translate to limited
TSTM potential. Latest 21Z RAP13 shows surface CAPE restricted to
wrn waters and adjacent coastlines, and even here, BRN only 5,
BRN SHEAR only 25 m/s, 0-6 km shear only 30 and 0-3km SRH only about
100 m/s. This reflected in local confidence tool/CAM guidance which
show essentially zero CHANCE of THUNDER over land. The best rain
chances and any tstms over land still appear to be across SE AL, the
area closest to upper support and late this AFTN before DIURNAL
heating dies off, and in the eve. Overall QPF will remain low with
rain totals less than one half inch. Temperatures will remain above
NORMAL today, with highs in the MID to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]…
Upper trough will deamplify further as it pivots into QUE early
Tues. The front will erode over our area tonight and wash out
across CNTRL FL on Tues. A 40-10% NW-SE POP gradient tonight
mainly before midnight.Cooler AIR will move in behind the front
tonight however cold air ADVECTION is limited so only expect lows
dropping into the upper 40s for portions of SE AL to the mid 50s
elsewhere.

In WAKE of front, a dry zonal FLOW aloft with continental polar
airmass over Ern CONUS expected for Tues and Wed. High PRESSURE
will extend from from the OH and TN valleys SWD to TX on Tues
building Ewd on Wed with cool NLY flow over local region. In
response, local gradients will again tighten. A weak shortwave
passes thru the region on wed thru wed NIGHT helping define a weak
trough that will drop across the area with some isentropic lift on
Wed but little in the way of rain will accompany it. On Tues and
Wed, highs will be much closer to normal, ranging from the mid 60s
in SE Alabama to the upper 70s in the far southeastern Big Bend.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through next Monday]…
The extended forecast will begin with predominately zonal flow
across the CONUS; a shortwave trough is expected to be centered
roughly over our forecast area – a feature that is currently evident
on water vapor satellite loops just approaching the Pacific coasts
of Oregon and northern California. The 12.00z ECMWF shows a more
amplified wave, while the 12.00z GFS indicates a very low amplitude
wave. Already the shortwave trough appears to be fairly vigorous
just off the west coast, and the 12.00z runs CMC and UKMET are in
fairly good agreement with the ECMWF. As such, we opted to include
rain chances Wednesday Night rather than follow the drier Gridded
MOS and MEX solutions.

After that, greater uncertainties arise regarding the evolution of
the synoptic flow pattern. The 12.00z operational runs of the ECMWF
and GFS both indicate the potential for a CUTOFF low to form near or
over the Southeastern US with wave breaking at the southern end of a
digging/amplifying trough by next weekend. Only about half the GFS
ENSEMBLE members indicate a similar pattern, so there are still
several possibilities beyond mid-week. For now we have adopted a
consensus approach with slightly below normal temperatures and
fairly dry weather until the models begin to converge on a solution.

&&

.AVIATION [through 12z Tuesday]…
The low STRATUS that models had been advertising has failed to
materialize thus far. Therefore, the 12z SET of TAFs is calling for
predominately VFR until the approach of a cold front in the west
with some MVFR possible later in the period at ECP, DHN, ABY with
some SCATTERED SHRA. Front and associated SHRA should weaken with
time, so things were kept dry and VFR at VLD and TLH for now.

&&

.MARINE…
With high pressure still camped out over the mid-Atlantic, another
SURGE in the easterly flow thru rest of overnight will justify
exercise caution headlines. Winds and SEAS will diminish during the
day today and remain below exercise caution levels, before becoming
offshore and increasing late tonight in the wake of a front. A
period of ADVISORY conditions are possible on Tuesday. Thereafter,
conditions will slowly improve. However, moderate northeast winds
are forecast to continue through the end of the work week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 AM EST Fri Nov 9 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Surface data from early this morning show the surface RIDGE
centered just north of the forecast area. Winds have either gone
CALM or are very light out of the north. Temperatures have
plummeted this morning and are largely in the upper 30s with a
couple of spots already in the MID 30s AS of 2 am EST. Expect
areas of FROST to develop for much of the area before SUNRISE as
T/TD spreads remain small. Thankfully, the warm up will begin
today as surface HIGH PRESSURE shifts to the east of the region
and ridging builds in aloft. Highs will rebound nicely into the
lower 70s with mostly SUNNY skies. Still one cool NIGHT though
tonight. With the ridge positioned just off the Carolina Coast, it
will be a struggle for ideal radiational cooling conditions to
materialize. Nevertheless, this pattern does tend to support
cooler conditions in the SE Fla Big Bend. As a result, will be
indicating middle 30s with patchy frost possible in this portion
of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]…
The moderating TEMPERATURE trend will continue through the weekend
as high pressure moves into New England and ridging aloft
amplifies over the Southeastern CONUS. Temperatures during the day
will warm a couple of degrees each day with overnight lows nearing
50 Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday through Thursday]…
The amplified CONUS pattern continues at the beginning of the
period, only this time the local area is transitioning from
ridging to zonal FLOW as an upper level TROUGH/LOW lifts NE out of
the Plains states into the Northeast. As the trough lifts through
Wednesday it will bring a cold FRONT across the local area. Right
now, severe weather is not anticipated. Additionally, there is
decent agreement that this will not be a very dynamic system, thus
expect little organization and not much RAINFALL as the front
passes. Behind the front we will cool off once again with both
afternoon highs and overnight lows below climatological averages.
At this time it appears as though upper 30s to lower 40s will
return area wide both Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Saturday]…
VFR conditions will continue through the period at all of the
terminals, with very light winds during the next 24 hours.
Although temporary restrictions are not generally expected at this
time, a FEW periods of MVFR VIS are possible at VLD overnight, but
should be very brief, as evidenced by examining the higher
temporal resolution of the ASOS Vis Sensor. These very light winds
may also allow for a weak Sea Breeze to develop at ECP later this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE…
With the cold ridge of high pressure remaining centered
just to the north of the Coastal Waters, winds will remain generally
light out of the northeast to east today and tonight. By Saturday
and Sunday, as this ridge ejects more quickly off to the northeast,
the pressure GRADIENT will begin to tighten again over the Coastal
Waters. This will result in increasing east to southeast winds,
which should cause a period of cautionary to perhaps ADVISORY level
conditions over the Marine area beginning Saturday night, and
lingering into Monday. After a brief reprieve with the approach of a
weakening cold front on Monday, even stronger winds will LIKELY
enter the Waters behind this front, with more headlines needed.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Even though the forecast ERC at Wakulla county has dropped to 34
for today, with the Red Flag WARNING already in place for Leon and
Wakulla counties in the Florida Big Bend this afternoon, see
little reason to change the Red Flag Warning, as one point higher
in observed ERC, will verify it there. Also, with the long
durations of low afternoon relative HUMIDITY continuing, have
issued a new Fire Weather WATCH for Saturday afternoon for the
SAME 2 counties. Over Southeast Alabama and Southwest and South
Central Georgia, RH durations below 25% could REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH 2-3 hours this
afternoon, so will need to monitor Southeast Alabama closely,
while Fuel Moistures are still too high for our Georgia zones (on
the order of 12 percent, when 6 percent is needed for action).

&&

.HYDROLOGY
No impacts expected through the weekend with no RAIN in the
forecast.

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
845 PM EST THU NOV 8 2012

…FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND…SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA…AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…

.THE COMBINATION OF CALM WINDS…CLEAR SKIES…AND A COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FROST IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST INLAND LOCATIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. FROST WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING…OPEN AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AND CITIES.

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134- GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-091300-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FR.Y.0001.121109T0700Z-121109T1300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON- COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE… TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE… SWEETWATER…CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY… FREEPORT…SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…
PORT SAINT JOE…APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…
SAINT MARKS…KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…SUWANNEE…
GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON… MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…
SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER…ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA… DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM… MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS…NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…
BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE…QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND 845 PM EST THU NOV 8 2012 /745 PM CST THU NOV 8 2012/

Frost advisory now in effect from 2 AM EST /1 AM cst/ to 8 am EST /7 AM cst/ friday…

* areas affected: patchy frost is likely to form in usually cold inland locations, away from the beaches and cities. frost is more likely to form in low lying areas, in open fields.

* temperatures: lows in the mid 30S.

* impacts: although this is unlikely to be a widespread killing frost, there is a risk of unprotected sensitive plants being damaged.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a frost advisory means that frost is possible. sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
217 PM EST THU NOV 8 2012

…FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND…SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA…AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…

.THE COMBINATION OF CALM WINDS…CLEAR SKIES…AND A COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FROST IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST INLAND LOCATIONS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE…MAINLY IN LOW
LYING…OPEN AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AND CITIES.

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134- GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-091300-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FR.Y.0001.121109T0800Z-121109T1300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON- HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON- COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON- COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ENTERPRISE…OZARK…FORT RUCKER… DALEVILLE…HEADLAND…ABBEVILLE…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON… SLOCOMB…MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…
COWARTS…WEBB…COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS… HUDSON…BONIFAY…CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…
MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE…MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…
BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE… TALLAHASSEE…SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE… SWEETWATER…CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…CROSS CITY… FREEPORT…SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…
PORT SAINT JOE…APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…
SAINT MARKS…KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…SUWANNEE…
GEORGETOWN…FORT GAINES…CUTHBERT…SHELLMAN…ARLINGTON… MORGAN…EDISON…LEARY…DAWSON…ALBANY…LEESBURG…
SMITHVILLE…SYLVESTER…ASHBURN…TIFTON…FITZGERALD…OCILLA… DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT…NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM… MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS…NASHVILLE…DONALSONVILLE…
BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE…QUITMAN…VALDOSTA…LAKELAND 217 PM EST THU NOV 8 2012 /117 PM CST THU NOV 8 2012/

From 3 AM EST /2 AM cst/ to 8 AM EST
/7 AM cst/ friday…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a frost advisory, which is in effect from 3 AM EST /2 AM cst/ to 8 am EST /7 AM cst/ friday.

* temperature, minimum temperatures in the mid 30S around
sunrise. patchy frost is likely to form in the normally coldest inland locations, away from the beaches and cities. frost is more likely to form in low lying areas, in open fields.

* impacts, while this is unlikely to be a widespread killing frost, there is enough risk to warrant protecting sensitive plants.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a frost advisory means that frost is possible. sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
348 AM EST Thu Nov 8 2012

…First FROST of the season expected tonight…

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Cooler weather continues to remain entrenched across the region
with the LIKELY first frost of the season coming tonight.
Observational data from 00 UTC Thursday and throughout the morning
hours continues to show a strong cold/dry ADVECTION pattern AS the
upper TROUGH across the Eastern CONUS lifts northeast into New
England. At the surface, HIGH PRESSURE back across the MID
Mississippi Valley will shift southeastward into the Southern
Appalachians by the evening. With this particular synoptic SET up,
temperatures will not warm that much today despite full sunshine.
In fact, highs will not be that dissimilar to Wednesday`s values
that were only in the mid 60s.

The big story in the near term is with temperatures Thursday NIGHT
into Friday morning. Clear skies, and CALM winds will support
excellent radiational cooling overnight. The latest guidance has
trended a little colder than the inherited forecast down into the
lower 30s in some spots. With this cooler shift and UPSTREAM
observations showing the incoming airmass quite cold will trend
the inherited forecast down a degree or two. T/TD spreads are
around 3 or 4 degrees MAX overnight. With all this in mind, it
looks to be more than cold enough for areas of frost to develop
by daybreak on Friday. In fact, it wouldn`t be entirely
surprising to see a FEW spots hit the freezing mark (the MAV
guidance at TLH is 33 – which usually indicates some of the
normally colder areas in the Florida Big Bend should hit 31-32).
Because of the ISOLATED and conditional nature of freezing
temperatures, will not be issuing any FREEZE products at this
time. However, will have frost mention in the forecast products
and let the day shift define the area of the frost ADVISORY that
will almost certainly be issued later today.

From a purely climatolgical standpoint at Tallahassee, there`s
around a 70 percent CHANCE of a frost by November 9th and around a
30 percent chance of a freeze by November 9th. The record LOW for
Friday at Tallahassee is 21 set back in 1976.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]…
No real sensible weather throughout the short term period.
Temperatures will begin to slowly warm on Friday as ridging aloft
builds across the Southeast. With the RIDGE amplifying on
Saturday, temperatures will return to above NORMAL values with
highs in the upper 70s. Low temperatures during the period will
moderate enough to prevent any frost concerns on Friday night.
Even warmer overnight temperatures are expected Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday through Wednesday]…
The deep layer ridge over the Southeast on Sunday will break down
as a weakening cold FRONT moves southeast across the forecast area
Monday night and Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF both show this system
getting “stretched” out in the deep layer MOISTURE/QPF fields, as
the associated 500 MB HEIGHT falls remain north of our region.
With this weakening, the max POP for is only 30%. The front is
likely to stall across central FL Wednesday as a frontal wave
begins to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico, so this may not
be a “clean” frontal passage. The above-average temperatures
(especially daytime highs- which will be well into the 70s) ahead
of the cold front Sunday and Monday will give wave to near average
temperatures behind the front Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 06Z Thursday]…VFR conditions will continue
through the period at all of the terminals, with very light winds
overnight, much lighter N-NW winds on Thursday, followed by near
calm conditions Thursday night. With the SFC Ridge building in, no
additional CLOUD cover is expected through the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE…While the much cooler and drier AIR that is still rushing
in over the Marine Area is helping to maintain the Small Craft
Advisory over the western two-thirds of the Coastal Waters, the
pressure GRADIENT is starting to weaken as the High Pressure Ridge
approaches from the northwest. This Ridge will allow winds and SEAS
to subside steadily throughout the day, with much lighter offshore
winds by this afternoon. Light northeast then easterly winds will
continue through Friday, with 10 to 15 KNOT winds expected by Friday
night and Saturday as they veer to the southeast. Winds and seas
will increase further by the latter half of the  weekend, as the
High Pressure system moves eastward off the U.S. Eastern Seaboard,
and a new Cold Front approaches from the west. This will likely
result in a period of at least cautionary conditions over the
waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…With very dry air moving into the region today, low
afternoon relative humidities and high ERCs will result in Red Flag
Conditions across Leon and Wakulla counties in the Florida Big Bend.
With very similar conditions expected on Friday, and potentially
higher ERCs over parts of the Florida Panhandle, will issue a Fire
Weather WATCH for a larger area. Over our Georgia and Alabama
counties, afternoon relative humidities may drop below 25% on
Friday, but durations should be brief.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]
The deep upper TROUGH along the east coast the will further amplify
AS short wave energy drops down from the Midwest into the southeast
CONUS. Little or no sensible weather is expected but skies may be
slow to clear. With the CLOUD cover and cold AIR ADVECTION look for
HIGH temperatures only in the lower to MID 60s most inland areas
with upper 60s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]…
Aside from cool temperatures the next FEW nights we will see a
gradual warming trend with dry conditions as deep layer ridging
builds in from the west to finish out the week. Highs Thursday will
be in the mid to upper 60s with lower to mid 70s on Friday. Lows
tonight in the upper 30s to around 40 and a few degrees cooler
Friday morning with surface high PRESSURE becoming centered just
to our north.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday NIGHT through Tuesday]…
Deep layer ridging will the dominant weather feature this weekend
into early next week, with FAIR weather. High temperatures will be
above average (mid to upper 70s). Lows will begin the weekend a bit
below average (lower to mid 40s inland), then warm to above average
by Monday and Tuesday (mid 50s). A cold FRONT will move east across
the region Monday night and Tuesday, bringing with it a CHANCE of
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 06Z Thursday] Despite a large deck of STRATUS covering a
bit more than the northern one-half of the CWA early this morning,
only VLD is below VFR conditions early this morning (with MVFR level
Cigs at 1600 FT). ABY did have had a 5 HR period of MVFR Cigs
earlier Tuesday evening, these have since lifted back into the VFR
RANGE. Therefore, while this deck will make an additional push
southward through the rest of the early morning hours, (before
dissipating during the the mid morning) VFR conditions will prevail
through the rest of the period, with cooler and drier air filtering
in from the north.

&&

.MARINE…The pressure GRADIENT between the strong developing LOW
Pressure system moving northward towards New England, and the RIDGE
of High Pressure well off to our to our northwest, has created
WIDESPREAD cautionary conditions across our Coastal Waters this
morning. This is shown well at Buoys 42036, 42039, and the C-Tower
(at the lowest 10 meter elevation), with sustained north to
northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts. These stronger
winds and higher SEAS will continue into tonight before diminishing
on Thursday morning. After a brief reprieve, winds and seas will
increase again this weekend ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Dispersions and ERC`s will be above critical thresholds this afternoon
in the Florida panhandle but minimum relative humidities are
forecast to stay just above 35 percent. For Thursday, we see minimum
relative humidities drop below 35 percent over a portion of the
panhandle but dispersions will be much lower. Once deep layer
ridging takes hold by Friday, there will LIKELY be fire weather
concerns that will need to be addressed.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
The upcoming RAINFALL for tonight and Tuesday is not expected to
be heavy enough to create flooding concerns, and there are no
significant river rises expected over the next week across the
area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2012

Updated for 12Z aviation section.

.NEAR TERM [Today]…
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a deep LOW PRESSURE system will
end from west to east by noon or early afternoon. Most of the
thunderstorms will be over the coastal waters ahead of the surface
which was near Panama City at 08z. Some of the storms over the local
waters this morning may be strong to briefly severe. The surface low
will rapidly move east and off the northeast Florida coast by this
afternoon dragging a southwest extending cold FRONT with it.
Meanwhile, the MID/upper level low will be crossing central Georgia
this morning and weakening AS it lifts into the the mid-Atlantic
states this evening. Skies may be slower to clear than what the
models are showing and we also accounted for the possibility of a
FEW showers or patchy light RAIN lingering across our Georgia zones
through the afternoon associated with the wrap around MOISTURE.
Otherwise, winds will be shifting to the northwest throughout the
tri-state region along with cooler and drier conditions. HIGH
temperatures will RANGE from the lower 60s across our northernmost
GA zones to the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Florida Panhandle
and Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]…
Another potent SHORTWAVE will drop down from central Canada
tonight into the southeast U.S. on Wednesday further amplifying the
long wave TROUGH over the eastern CONUS. Little or no sensible
weather is expected with this feature aside from possibly an
increase in cloudiness. The axis of the upper trough will swing to
our east on Thursday with deep layer ridging approaching the CWA
from the west. TEMPS will drop into the lower to mid 40s tonight
with highs on Wednesday and Thursday only in the mid to upper 60s.
The coldest temps are forecast for Wednesday NIGHT where all inland
areas should see upper 30s with mid 40s near the coast by daybreak
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday night through next Monday]…
Deep layer ridging will continue to build in from the west and by
late in the week temperatures are expected to moderate back to
near/above NORMAL levels. Dry conditions are expected through next
weekend before rain chances increase ahead of a cold front early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION…[Through 06z Wednesday]
IFR cigs have developed behind the exiting low pressure system this
morning. These conditions will primarily impact KABY, KDHN, and
KECP. The low clouds should burn off by mid to late morning with VFR
conditions thereafter.

&&

.MARINE…
A surface low in the panhandle waters early this morning will push
east of the waters by early afternoon dragging a cold front with it.
Winds and SEAS will increase rapidly in the WAKE of this departing
system. Cautionary to marginal ADVISORY level winds will develop
today and continue into Thursday morning. Winds will subside below
headline criteria from Thursday through Friday night. High pressure
will strengthen northeast of the area by the weekend which will
bring a return of cautionary level winds by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Showers early this morning, will exit the region to the east by
midday with drier AIR moving in from the west. However, even with
the drier airmass, lower temperatures will keep HUMIDITY values
above critical levels. The next CHANCE for red flag conditions will
be late in the week as the airmass remains dry, and temperatures
begin to warm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
The upcoming RAINFALL for tonight and Tuesday is not expected to be
heavy enough to create flooding concerns, and there are no
significant river rises expected over the next week across the area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
625 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2012

Updated for 12z aviation discussion.

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…
A weak cold FRONT will continue to push off to the south and east
of our CWA this morning bringing a brief period of dry weather
today. With the offshore FLOW, temperatures will be cooler with MAX
TEMPS generally in the lower to MID 70s under mostly SUNNY skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Wednesday]…
A vigorous short wave will dive southeastward from the Missouri
Valley tonight into the southeast CONUS with an upper LOW closing
off and moving across the central portions of AL and GA during the
day Tuesday. This will induce CYCLOGENESIS with a broad surface low
developing over or just south of our coastal waters Tuesday morning
sliding east across north central Florida and then into the western
Atlantic the remainder of the day. Deep layer MOISTURE along with
decent lift will provide the best chances for WIDESPREAD RAIN across
the FA in over a month tonight into at least mid day Tuesday. Since
the surface low is forecast to pass to our south we will remove
mention of TSTMS although an ISOLATED elevated STORM cannot be ruled
out, especially across the southeast Big Bend. Rain will be ending
from west to east Tuesday but time HEIGHT cross sections indicate
that skies may be slow to clear so went with a less optimistic sky
cover. This deep low PRESSURE system will depart from us on
Wednesday AS it races northeastward up the eastern seaboard.
However, another closed low will be dropping from the Great Lakes
region into the mid-Atlantic states on Wednesday. This will keep the
long wave TROUGH positioned over the region at least through the
short term period. MIN temps tonight will be near NORMAL (around
50). Temperatures will be below seasonal levels for the remainder of
the period with highs in the 60s both days and lows dipping into the
upper 30s to lower 40s by daybreak Wednesday away the coastal
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday NIGHT through next Monday]
The extended period begins with a highly amplified pattern in place
across the CONUS, characterized by a deep trough over the eastern
states and a RIDGE out west. Cold AIR ADVECTION will be ongoing
Tuesday night and continue through much of the day on Wednesday.
This will keep temperatures below normal through Thursday, with
highs in the mid 60s to near 70s, and lows in the upper 30s to lower
40s. The western ridge will slide east by late in the week allowing
temperatures to moderate back to near/above normal levels. Dry
conditions are expected through next weekend before rain chances
increase ahead of a cold front early next week.

&&

.AVIATION…[Through 12z Tuesday]
Drier air and light winds will keep conditions VFR through much of
today. By late this evening, clouds will begin to return ahead of a
cold front. MVFR cigs with SHRA are expected after 06z as a front
moves across the region.

&&

.MARINE…
A developing area of low pressure will cross over or just south of
the waters tonight and Tuesday. Winds will be light today but will
increase tonight possibly reaching ADVISORY levels over the offshore
segments. With strong offshore flow developing behind this system,
winds will be elevated to at least cautionary levels across the
entire marine area Tuesday night before diminishing below headline
criteria for the remainder of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Drier air behind a cold front will allow relative HUMIDITY values to
drop below 35 percent across inland portions of northwest Florida
for several hours on Monday afternoon. However, durations and ERC
values look marginal so will not issue any headlines at this time.
Conditions will moisten ahead of another system for Tuesday with
drier air returning by mid to late week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
The upcoming RAINFALL for Tonight and Tuesday is not expected to be
heavy enough to create flooding concerns, and there are no
hydrological concerns or significant river rises expected over the
next week across the area.

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
709 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012

…A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION…

.MOIST AIR THAT ARRIVED WITH YESTERDAYS WESTERLY FLOW HAS
COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT OVER LAND AREAS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS…BUT MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE APALACHEE BAY AND NEARBY GULF WATERS.

ALZ068-069-FLZ007>019-026>029-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-
GAZ142>147-155>160-031600-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FG.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-121103T1600Z/
GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON- JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN- LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-
INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF- COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY- THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON…SLOCOMB… MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…COWARTS…WEBB… COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS…HUDSON…BONIFAY… CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE… MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…
WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE…TALLAHASSEE…
SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE…SWEETWATER… CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…FREEPORT…
SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…PORT SAINT JOE…
APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…SAINT MARKS…
KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT… NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS…
DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE…QUITMAN… VALDOSTA
709 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012 /609 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012/

Dense fog advisory now in effect until noon EDT /11 AM cdt/
today…

* visibility, a quarter mile or less.

* impacts, fog will substantially reduce visibilities making driving hazardous.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to one quarter mile or less. if driving, slow down, use your low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

&&

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
334 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012

…A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA…AND MOST OF NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH MID MORNING…

.MOIST AIR THAT ARRIVED WITH YESTERDAYS WESTERLY FLOW HAS COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND THROUGH THE
MORNING…POSSIBLY EVEN INTO OUR GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. BY MID MORNING…FOG WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT OVER LAND AREAS.

ALZ068-069-FLZ007>019-026>029-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-
GAZ142>147-155>160-031400-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FG.Y.0034.121103T0734Z-121103T1400Z/
GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON- JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN- LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-
INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF- COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR- EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY- THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…GENEVA…HARTFORD…SAMSON…SLOCOMB… MALVERN…TAYLOR…ASHFORD…DOTHAN…KINSEY…COWARTS…WEBB… COTTONWOOD…REHOBETH…DE FUNIAK SPRINGS…HUDSON…BONIFAY… CRYSTAL LAKE…CHIPLEY…FIVE POINTS…MARIANNA…GRACEVILLE… MALONE…SNEADS…YOUNGSTOWN…BLOUNTSTOWN…WHITE CITY…
WEWAHITCHKA…QUINCY…CHATTAHOOCHEE…TALLAHASSEE…
SPRING HILL…MONTICELLO…MADISON…GREENVILLE…SWEETWATER… CRAWFORDVILLE…PERRY…MIDWAY…MAYO…FREEPORT…
SANTA ROSA BEACH…PANAMA CITY…PARKER…PORT SAINT JOE…
APALACHICOLA…CARRABELLE…SOPCHOPPY…SAINT MARKS…
KEATON BEACH…STEINHATCHEE…DOUGLASVILLE…BLAKELY…COLQUITT… NEWTON…CAMILLA…PELHAM…MOULTRIE…ADEL…SPARKS…
DONALSONVILLE…BAINBRIDGE…CAIRO…THOMASVILLE…QUITMAN… VALDOSTA
334 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012 /234 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012/

a dense fog advisory is in effect until 10 AM EDT /9 AM cdt/ this morning…

the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a dense fog advisory, which is in effect until 10 AM EDT /9 AM cdt/ this morning.

* visibility, minimum visibilities a quarter mile or less.

* impacts, fog will substantially reduce visibilities making driving hazardous.

precautionary/preparedness actions…

a dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to less than one quarter mile. if driving, slow down, use your low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2012

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Sunday]…
The upper FLOW across the deep south will gradually deamplify
through Saturday AS the deep TROUGH over the northeastern states
lifts out and a SHORTWAVE RIDGE slides east along the northern
gulf coast. This will keep the weather dry across the region while
allowing temperatures to warm back to above-NORMAL values. For
today, HIGH are expected to approach 80 degrees. By Saturday
afternoon, high should REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH to the lower to MID 80s at all
locations. LOW temperatures will warm into the 50s for the next
FEW nights.

By Sunday, the flow across the country will begin to reamplify as
a ridge builds along the west coast, and a shortwave drops into
the lower Mississippi River Valley. The associated surface FRONT
will move into central GA/AL by Sunday afternoon with SCATTERED
showers possible along and ahead of the front. Return flow is
forecast to be limited ahead of this front, so WIDESPREAD precip
appears unlikely at this time. However, ISOLATED to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially across the
northern portions of the forecast area. The increase in CLOUD
cover ahead of the front should also knock high temperatures back
a degree or two for Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday NIGHT through Thursday]…
A broad upper trough over the eastern U.S. at the beginning of the
period further amplifies as potent short wave energy drops southeast
from the northern plains Sunday night with an upper low closing off
over central Georgia on Tuesday. The low and axis of the trough
swing east off the SE U.S. coast on Wednesday before the weakening
low and deamplifying trough lift to the northeast through the
remainder of the work week. Locally, weak upper ridging builds in
for Thursday and Friday. At the surface, a weak low PRESSURE system
will move across the Carolina`s Sunday night and into the western
Atlantic on Monday. The cold front will stall to our north but with
MOISTURE increasing at all levels, scattered showers will be
possible across the CWA during the Sunday night and Monday
timeframe. We should then see scattered to possibly NUMEROUS showers
Monday night through Tuesday as the aforementioned deep upper low
and surface refection push into the southeast U.S.. This activity
will all be ahead of a cold front that should pass to our east by
late Tuesday. High pressure along with a much drier airmass filter
into the region Wednesday through Friday. High temperatures will be
in the upper 70s Monday cooling into the upper 60s to lower 70s for
the rest of the week. Low TEMPS will be in the lower to mid 50s
Monday morning and then lower to mid 40s Tuesday through
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION [through 06Z Saturday]…
VFR conditions are forecast for the entire TAF period. Winds will
be from the west to southwest 10 KTS or less.

&&

.MARINE…
Weak high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will generate light
west to southwest winds over the coastal waters through the
weekend. Conditions are forecast to remain below headline criteria
through Monday. Strong offshore flow may develop by Tuesday in the
WAKE of a cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Although the airmass will begin to moisten today, minimum
relative humidities across the eastern two-thirds of north Florida
will drop below critical levels for several hours. This combined
with continued low fuel moisture and high dispersions has prompted
the issuance of a Red Flag WARNING for this afternoon. The airmass
will moisten above critical levels over the weekend with no Red
Flag conditions expected at least into the middle of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Since there has been no heavy RAIN in our region for the last
several weeks, and since significant rain is unlikely for the
next several days, river will remain below action STAGE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
623 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…

Updated at 0625 EDT:

A weak surface trough combined with weak upper level shortwave
support have generated light showers, both offshore and closer to
the coast this morning. Just recently, the showers generated
over land have started to reach the ground despite the relatively
dry boundary layer. With the southward motion of the features
expected to continue, expect the threat for showers to shift
offshore by early to mid morning with only a very slight chance
for a shower near the Forgotten Coast into the afternoon. With the
passage of the surface trough, high pressure will build into the
region and combined with the subsidence aloft will dry things out
rather quickly. With heights gradually increasing today, expect a
slightly warmer afternoon than yesterday with highs peaking in the
middle 70s area wide. Overnight, lows will be ever so slightly
warmer than this morning. Expect middle 40s to be common inland,
with middle 50s likely along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]…
The gradual warming trend will continue into the weekend as the
mean flow becomes more zonal, continuing the rising heights. Above
average temperatures are expected both Friday and Saturday as
lower to middle 80s are expected to creep back into the picture.
Overnight lows will moderate through the 50s, eventually
increasing to above normal levels, into the middle 50s by Saturday
night. No rain is expected through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]…
There is good agreement among the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs in
transitioning the 500 mb long wave pattern from that of a fairly
zonal pattern over the weekend, to a fairly amplified trough over
the Southeast U.S. by early next work week. This means that our
forecast area will at least have a chance of rain…something that
has been lacking lately. (Although climatologically, October is our
driest month of the year, so the past few weeks have not been that
unusual). The window for rain will be Sunday and Monday, as a cold
front passes through the region. Although there appears to be
sufficient deep layer moisture, Q-G forcing, and instability for
scattered showers (and even a few thunderstorms), the vertical wind
profile and thermodynamics do not appear favorable for an organized
severe storm threat. (November is typically when we begin to be more
vigilant about the threat of severe storms, since the Gulf Coast
severe storm season generally goes from November through March).

A secondary (and fairly impressive) short wave is forecast by both
model runs to translate quickly through our area on Tuesday, but
neither the GFS nor ECMWF MOS carry PoP much above 10%, perhaps
because the initial system scours away much of the deep layer
moisture. Temperatures on Sunday will be well above average (by
about 10 degrees for highs), then return to near average Tuesday and
Wednesday behind the cold front, with Monday being a transition day.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 10Z Thursday]…

Updated at 0625 EDT:

The short wave approaching our forecast area this morning has helped
produce more rain than previously forecast, resulting in brief
periods of MVFR vis/cigs at KECP and KTLH. Recent radar trends and
high-res NWP output indicate that these SHRA will taper off from
west to east through mid morning, followed by VFR conditions and
fair weather. Winds will be NW 5 to 10 KT this afternoon, becoming
light by sunset.

&&

.MARINE…
Winds will begin to settle today as high pressure builds in over
our coastal waters. Calm winds and seas will continue through
Monday, when a weak cold front could bring a slight enhancement.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
With plenty of dry air still in place, and a favorable combination
of winds & mixing heights, we upgraded our Fire Weather Watch to a
Red Flag Warning for all of our FL zones today. Admittedly it will
be marginal in some areas (like Franklin & Dixie Counties), but
there is too much uncertainty to leave anyone off at this point. It
appears that the humidity will be a little above FL`s critical
threshold for Friday, so no watch/warning will be issued.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
Since there has been no heavy rain in our region for several weeks,
and since rain is unlikely for the next several days, river stages
will remain below action levels.

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