AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2012

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Sunday]…
The upper FLOW across the deep south will gradually deamplify
through Saturday AS the deep TROUGH over the northeastern states
lifts out and a SHORTWAVE RIDGE slides east along the northern
gulf coast. This will keep the weather dry across the region while
allowing temperatures to warm back to above-NORMAL values. For
today, HIGH are expected to approach 80 degrees. By Saturday
afternoon, high should REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH to the lower to MID 80s at all
locations. LOW temperatures will warm into the 50s for the next
FEW nights.

By Sunday, the flow across the country will begin to reamplify as
a ridge builds along the west coast, and a shortwave drops into
the lower Mississippi River Valley. The associated surface FRONT
will move into central GA/AL by Sunday afternoon with SCATTERED
showers possible along and ahead of the front. Return flow is
forecast to be limited ahead of this front, so WIDESPREAD precip
appears unlikely at this time. However, ISOLATED to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially across the
northern portions of the forecast area. The increase in CLOUD
cover ahead of the front should also knock high temperatures back
a degree or two for Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday NIGHT through Thursday]…
A broad upper trough over the eastern U.S. at the beginning of the
period further amplifies as potent short wave energy drops southeast
from the northern plains Sunday night with an upper low closing off
over central Georgia on Tuesday. The low and axis of the trough
swing east off the SE U.S. coast on Wednesday before the weakening
low and deamplifying trough lift to the northeast through the
remainder of the work week. Locally, weak upper ridging builds in
for Thursday and Friday. At the surface, a weak low PRESSURE system
will move across the Carolina`s Sunday night and into the western
Atlantic on Monday. The cold front will stall to our north but with
MOISTURE increasing at all levels, scattered showers will be
possible across the CWA during the Sunday night and Monday
timeframe. We should then see scattered to possibly NUMEROUS showers
Monday night through Tuesday as the aforementioned deep upper low
and surface refection push into the southeast U.S.. This activity
will all be ahead of a cold front that should pass to our east by
late Tuesday. High pressure along with a much drier airmass filter
into the region Wednesday through Friday. High temperatures will be
in the upper 70s Monday cooling into the upper 60s to lower 70s for
the rest of the week. Low TEMPS will be in the lower to mid 50s
Monday morning and then lower to mid 40s Tuesday through
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION [through 06Z Saturday]…
VFR conditions are forecast for the entire TAF period. Winds will
be from the west to southwest 10 KTS or less.

&&

.MARINE…
Weak high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will generate light
west to southwest winds over the coastal waters through the
weekend. Conditions are forecast to remain below headline criteria
through Monday. Strong offshore flow may develop by Tuesday in the
WAKE of a cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Although the airmass will begin to moisten today, minimum
relative humidities across the eastern two-thirds of north Florida
will drop below critical levels for several hours. This combined
with continued low fuel moisture and high dispersions has prompted
the issuance of a Red Flag WARNING for this afternoon. The airmass
will moisten above critical levels over the weekend with no Red
Flag conditions expected at least into the middle of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Since there has been no heavy RAIN in our region for the last
several weeks, and since significant rain is unlikely for the
next several days, river will remain below action STAGE.