AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
625 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2012

Updated for 12z aviation discussion.

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…
A weak cold FRONT will continue to push off to the south and east
of our CWA this morning bringing a brief period of dry weather
today. With the offshore FLOW, temperatures will be cooler with MAX
TEMPS generally in the lower to MID 70s under mostly SUNNY skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Wednesday]…
A vigorous short wave will dive southeastward from the Missouri
Valley tonight into the southeast CONUS with an upper LOW closing
off and moving across the central portions of AL and GA during the
day Tuesday. This will induce CYCLOGENESIS with a broad surface low
developing over or just south of our coastal waters Tuesday morning
sliding east across north central Florida and then into the western
Atlantic the remainder of the day. Deep layer MOISTURE along with
decent lift will provide the best chances for WIDESPREAD RAIN across
the FA in over a month tonight into at least mid day Tuesday. Since
the surface low is forecast to pass to our south we will remove
mention of TSTMS although an ISOLATED elevated STORM cannot be ruled
out, especially across the southeast Big Bend. Rain will be ending
from west to east Tuesday but time HEIGHT cross sections indicate
that skies may be slow to clear so went with a less optimistic sky
cover. This deep low PRESSURE system will depart from us on
Wednesday AS it races northeastward up the eastern seaboard.
However, another closed low will be dropping from the Great Lakes
region into the mid-Atlantic states on Wednesday. This will keep the
long wave TROUGH positioned over the region at least through the
short term period. MIN temps tonight will be near NORMAL (around
50). Temperatures will be below seasonal levels for the remainder of
the period with highs in the 60s both days and lows dipping into the
upper 30s to lower 40s by daybreak Wednesday away the coastal
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday NIGHT through next Monday]
The extended period begins with a highly amplified pattern in place
across the CONUS, characterized by a deep trough over the eastern
states and a RIDGE out west. Cold AIR ADVECTION will be ongoing
Tuesday night and continue through much of the day on Wednesday.
This will keep temperatures below normal through Thursday, with
highs in the mid 60s to near 70s, and lows in the upper 30s to lower
40s. The western ridge will slide east by late in the week allowing
temperatures to moderate back to near/above normal levels. Dry
conditions are expected through next weekend before rain chances
increase ahead of a cold front early next week.

&&

.AVIATION…[Through 12z Tuesday]
Drier air and light winds will keep conditions VFR through much of
today. By late this evening, clouds will begin to return ahead of a
cold front. MVFR cigs with SHRA are expected after 06z as a front
moves across the region.

&&

.MARINE…
A developing area of low pressure will cross over or just south of
the waters tonight and Tuesday. Winds will be light today but will
increase tonight possibly reaching ADVISORY levels over the offshore
segments. With strong offshore flow developing behind this system,
winds will be elevated to at least cautionary levels across the
entire marine area Tuesday night before diminishing below headline
criteria for the remainder of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Drier air behind a cold front will allow relative HUMIDITY values to
drop below 35 percent across inland portions of northwest Florida
for several hours on Monday afternoon. However, durations and ERC
values look marginal so will not issue any headlines at this time.
Conditions will moisten ahead of another system for Tuesday with
drier air returning by mid to late week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
The upcoming RAINFALL for Tonight and Tuesday is not expected to be
heavy enough to create flooding concerns, and there are no
hydrological concerns or significant river rises expected over the
next week across the area.