AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2012

Updated for 12Z aviation section.

.NEAR TERM [Today]…
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a deep LOW PRESSURE system will
end from west to east by noon or early afternoon. Most of the
thunderstorms will be over the coastal waters ahead of the surface
which was near Panama City at 08z. Some of the storms over the local
waters this morning may be strong to briefly severe. The surface low
will rapidly move east and off the northeast Florida coast by this
afternoon dragging a southwest extending cold FRONT with it.
Meanwhile, the MID/upper level low will be crossing central Georgia
this morning and weakening AS it lifts into the the mid-Atlantic
states this evening. Skies may be slower to clear than what the
models are showing and we also accounted for the possibility of a
FEW showers or patchy light RAIN lingering across our Georgia zones
through the afternoon associated with the wrap around MOISTURE.
Otherwise, winds will be shifting to the northwest throughout the
tri-state region along with cooler and drier conditions. HIGH
temperatures will RANGE from the lower 60s across our northernmost
GA zones to the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Florida Panhandle
and Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]…
Another potent SHORTWAVE will drop down from central Canada
tonight into the southeast U.S. on Wednesday further amplifying the
long wave TROUGH over the eastern CONUS. Little or no sensible
weather is expected with this feature aside from possibly an
increase in cloudiness. The axis of the upper trough will swing to
our east on Thursday with deep layer ridging approaching the CWA
from the west. TEMPS will drop into the lower to mid 40s tonight
with highs on Wednesday and Thursday only in the mid to upper 60s.
The coldest temps are forecast for Wednesday NIGHT where all inland
areas should see upper 30s with mid 40s near the coast by daybreak
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday night through next Monday]…
Deep layer ridging will continue to build in from the west and by
late in the week temperatures are expected to moderate back to
near/above NORMAL levels. Dry conditions are expected through next
weekend before rain chances increase ahead of a cold front early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION…[Through 06z Wednesday]
IFR cigs have developed behind the exiting low pressure system this
morning. These conditions will primarily impact KABY, KDHN, and
KECP. The low clouds should burn off by mid to late morning with VFR
conditions thereafter.

&&

.MARINE…
A surface low in the panhandle waters early this morning will push
east of the waters by early afternoon dragging a cold front with it.
Winds and SEAS will increase rapidly in the WAKE of this departing
system. Cautionary to marginal ADVISORY level winds will develop
today and continue into Thursday morning. Winds will subside below
headline criteria from Thursday through Friday night. High pressure
will strengthen northeast of the area by the weekend which will
bring a return of cautionary level winds by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Showers early this morning, will exit the region to the east by
midday with drier AIR moving in from the west. However, even with
the drier airmass, lower temperatures will keep HUMIDITY values
above critical levels. The next CHANCE for red flag conditions will
be late in the week as the airmass remains dry, and temperatures
begin to warm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
The upcoming RAINFALL for tonight and Tuesday is not expected to be
heavy enough to create flooding concerns, and there are no
significant river rises expected over the next week across the area.