AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]
The deep upper TROUGH along the east coast the will further amplify
AS short wave energy drops down from the Midwest into the southeast
CONUS. Little or no sensible weather is expected but skies may be
slow to clear. With the CLOUD cover and cold AIR ADVECTION look for
HIGH temperatures only in the lower to MID 60s most inland areas
with upper 60s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]…
Aside from cool temperatures the next FEW nights we will see a
gradual warming trend with dry conditions as deep layer ridging
builds in from the west to finish out the week. Highs Thursday will
be in the mid to upper 60s with lower to mid 70s on Friday. Lows
tonight in the upper 30s to around 40 and a few degrees cooler
Friday morning with surface high PRESSURE becoming centered just
to our north.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday NIGHT through Tuesday]…
Deep layer ridging will the dominant weather feature this weekend
into early next week, with FAIR weather. High temperatures will be
above average (mid to upper 70s). Lows will begin the weekend a bit
below average (lower to mid 40s inland), then warm to above average
by Monday and Tuesday (mid 50s). A cold FRONT will move east across
the region Monday night and Tuesday, bringing with it a CHANCE of
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 06Z Thursday] Despite a large deck of STRATUS covering a
bit more than the northern one-half of the CWA early this morning,
only VLD is below VFR conditions early this morning (with MVFR level
Cigs at 1600 FT). ABY did have had a 5 HR period of MVFR Cigs
earlier Tuesday evening, these have since lifted back into the VFR
RANGE. Therefore, while this deck will make an additional push
southward through the rest of the early morning hours, (before
dissipating during the the mid morning) VFR conditions will prevail
through the rest of the period, with cooler and drier air filtering
in from the north.

&&

.MARINE…The pressure GRADIENT between the strong developing LOW
Pressure system moving northward towards New England, and the RIDGE
of High Pressure well off to our to our northwest, has created
WIDESPREAD cautionary conditions across our Coastal Waters this
morning. This is shown well at Buoys 42036, 42039, and the C-Tower
(at the lowest 10 meter elevation), with sustained north to
northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts. These stronger
winds and higher SEAS will continue into tonight before diminishing
on Thursday morning. After a brief reprieve, winds and seas will
increase again this weekend ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Dispersions and ERC`s will be above critical thresholds this afternoon
in the Florida panhandle but minimum relative humidities are
forecast to stay just above 35 percent. For Thursday, we see minimum
relative humidities drop below 35 percent over a portion of the
panhandle but dispersions will be much lower. Once deep layer
ridging takes hold by Friday, there will LIKELY be fire weather
concerns that will need to be addressed.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
The upcoming RAINFALL for tonight and Tuesday is not expected to
be heavy enough to create flooding concerns, and there are no
significant river rises expected over the next week across the
area.