AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 AM EST Fri Nov 9 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Surface data from early this morning show the surface RIDGE
centered just north of the forecast area. Winds have either gone
CALM or are very light out of the north. Temperatures have
plummeted this morning and are largely in the upper 30s with a
couple of spots already in the MID 30s AS of 2 am EST. Expect
areas of FROST to develop for much of the area before SUNRISE as
T/TD spreads remain small. Thankfully, the warm up will begin
today as surface HIGH PRESSURE shifts to the east of the region
and ridging builds in aloft. Highs will rebound nicely into the
lower 70s with mostly SUNNY skies. Still one cool NIGHT though
tonight. With the ridge positioned just off the Carolina Coast, it
will be a struggle for ideal radiational cooling conditions to
materialize. Nevertheless, this pattern does tend to support
cooler conditions in the SE Fla Big Bend. As a result, will be
indicating middle 30s with patchy frost possible in this portion
of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]…
The moderating TEMPERATURE trend will continue through the weekend
as high pressure moves into New England and ridging aloft
amplifies over the Southeastern CONUS. Temperatures during the day
will warm a couple of degrees each day with overnight lows nearing
50 Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday through Thursday]…
The amplified CONUS pattern continues at the beginning of the
period, only this time the local area is transitioning from
ridging to zonal FLOW as an upper level TROUGH/LOW lifts NE out of
the Plains states into the Northeast. As the trough lifts through
Wednesday it will bring a cold FRONT across the local area. Right
now, severe weather is not anticipated. Additionally, there is
decent agreement that this will not be a very dynamic system, thus
expect little organization and not much RAINFALL as the front
passes. Behind the front we will cool off once again with both
afternoon highs and overnight lows below climatological averages.
At this time it appears as though upper 30s to lower 40s will
return area wide both Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Saturday]…
VFR conditions will continue through the period at all of the
terminals, with very light winds during the next 24 hours.
Although temporary restrictions are not generally expected at this
time, a FEW periods of MVFR VIS are possible at VLD overnight, but
should be very brief, as evidenced by examining the higher
temporal resolution of the ASOS Vis Sensor. These very light winds
may also allow for a weak Sea Breeze to develop at ECP later this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE…
With the cold ridge of high pressure remaining centered
just to the north of the Coastal Waters, winds will remain generally
light out of the northeast to east today and tonight. By Saturday
and Sunday, as this ridge ejects more quickly off to the northeast,
the pressure GRADIENT will begin to tighten again over the Coastal
Waters. This will result in increasing east to southeast winds,
which should cause a period of cautionary to perhaps ADVISORY level
conditions over the Marine area beginning Saturday night, and
lingering into Monday. After a brief reprieve with the approach of a
weakening cold front on Monday, even stronger winds will LIKELY
enter the Waters behind this front, with more headlines needed.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Even though the forecast ERC at Wakulla county has dropped to 34
for today, with the Red Flag WARNING already in place for Leon and
Wakulla counties in the Florida Big Bend this afternoon, see
little reason to change the Red Flag Warning, as one point higher
in observed ERC, will verify it there. Also, with the long
durations of low afternoon relative HUMIDITY continuing, have
issued a new Fire Weather WATCH for Saturday afternoon for the
SAME 2 counties. Over Southeast Alabama and Southwest and South
Central Georgia, RH durations below 25% could REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH 2-3 hours this
afternoon, so will need to monitor Southeast Alabama closely,
while Fuel Moistures are still too high for our Georgia zones (on
the order of 12 percent, when 6 percent is needed for action).

&&

.HYDROLOGY
No impacts expected through the weekend with no RAIN in the
forecast.