AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
634 AM EST Mon Nov 19 2012

.UPDATE…Aviation section for 12Z TAF package.

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.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…
The only real forecast issue today is the possibility of some
clouds rotating back into portions of the area AS LOW PRESSURE
continues to spin off the Atlantic coast. The greatest CLOUD cover
is expected to reside across northeastern portions of the area,
which will be closer to the upper level low and slightly higher
MOISTURE. This could act to hold temperatures down a couple of
degrees compared to other areas, with values generally ranging
from the upper 60s northeast to lower 70s southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]…
As the upper level low east of the area pulls away, skies are
expected to clear out area-wide, especially by Tuesday NIGHT. A
moisture starved upper level disturbance will pivot through the
area on Wednesday morning with little fanfare. HIGH pressure is
expected to be the dominant surface feature with temperatures near
the seasonal average.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through next Monday]…
The long wave TROUGH will be exiting the area to the east at the
start of the period followed by a short wave RIDGE on Thursday. A
short wave will sweep by well to our north on Friday and that will
be followed by a period of mainly zonal FLOW aloft through the
weekend. Surface high pressure will generally be in control
through this period. Therefore, benign weather is expected to
continue through the weekend with all POPS below 15 percent. MIN
temperatures will be a FEW degrees below NORMAL through the period
with highs near seasonal levels Thursday and Friday before
dropping below normal for the weekend. By Monday, return flow will
commence as high pressure moves east. A frontal system will be
moving into the Lower MS Valley and slight CHANCE PoPs are
included for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 12Z Tuesday] We continued the trend of going less
pessimistic with the low STRATUS, which has remained just north
and east of the area all night. The latest NARRE and WRF time
HEIGHT cross sections indicate that MVFR ceilings are still
possible during the 12-18Z time period at ABY and VLD and this
appears to be supported by the last few satellite images. We also
included a period of MVFR VISIBILITY late tonight at these two
terminals. Elsewhere, the forecast is VFR.

&&

.MARINE…
Marginal cautionary winds have been occurring this morning beyond
20 NM offshore. These conditions are expected to continue through
the morning hours with slightly lower winds and SEAS closer to the
coast. A gradual decrease in winds and seas is expected later this
afternoon and tonight. Winds are expected to have a northerly
component through the period with brief bouts of cautionary
conditions possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days
with relative HUMIDITY values forecast to remain above critical
levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
With little or no RAINFALL expected during the next several days,
no significant river rises are anticipated.