AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1019 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through This Afternoon]…
Area of STRATUS clouds remains in place across the central portion
of the region this morning and are only slowly eroding on the
edges AS heating continues. This deck will be slowest to thin in
the middle, which means areas along a line from TLH-ABY will
LIKELY stay CLOUDY well into the afternoon hours and as such
expect temperatures to remain only in the MID to upper 60s there.
An approaching upper disturbance will likely help generate a FEW
sprinkles at times across far Southeastern Alabama and into
Southwestern Georgia this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday NIGHT Through Thursday]…
Benign weather is expected starting tonight. An upper level
disturbance will move through the area on Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning with little fanfare other than a few passing
clouds. HIGH temperatures are expected to remain near the seasonal
average, and lows may dip a couple of degrees below NORMAL by
Wednesday night with mainly clear skies and a slightly drier
airmass in place.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]…
The next UPSTREAM TROUGH will be tracking across the Upper Midwest
approaching the Great Lakes at the start of the period. Short
wave energy in the base of the trough near the ArkLaTex will
dissipate as it moves eastward into Dixie even as the long wave
trough deepens across the eastern U.S. Lower levels will remain
dry. Therefore, even though a cold FRONT will cross the area
Friday, it is expected to be RAIN-free. TEMPS will remain mild
ahead of the front, but turn cooler for the weekend. Look for
highs 65 to 70 Saturday and Sunday with overnight lows dropping
back into the 30s. Early next week, another frontal system will be
organizing over the Southern High Plains. The GFS is quicker to
bring the system eastward than the 19/12Z Euro. With timing
uncertainties as they are, will go with LOW POPS from late Monday
into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 15Z Tuesday]…
[Through 12z Wednesday] A broken to OVERCAST stratus deck with
bases around 4000 FT is slowly eroding, but will impact most area
terminals for a few hours this morning before SCATTERING out by
this afternoon. Winds will be light out of the north.

&&

.MARINE…
Offshore FLOW will continue through the week and into the weekend.
Winds are expected to approach or briefly REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH cautionary levels
through the work week and then increase to solid cautionary levels
Friday night into Saturday across the offshore segments and
possibly portions of the near shore segments as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Red flag conditions are not expected today with relative HUMIDITY
values forecast to remain above critical levels. MIN RH is
forecast to dip just below 35 percent on Wednesday and Thursday
across portions of the FL Big Bend. DISPERSION indices are
forecast to be over 75 Wednesday afternoon, so a WATCH or WARNING
many need to be issued by the next shift for that day for portions
of the FL Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
With little or no RAINFALL expected during the next several days,
no significant river rises are anticipated.