AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 29 2012

.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]…
Updated at: 700 am EST

The dense FOG overnight developed just outside our area, but over
the past couple hours (09-11z), the STRATUS has expanded across our
area in the light east to southeast FLOW in a 0-1km layer with HIGH
RH. This poses some concerns for the forecast. The GOES combined fog
product suggests that the stratus is at least 400m thick in many
areas, and stratus layers can occasionally take awhile to erode in
the presence of a strong INVERSION. Therefore, we bumped up CLOUD
cover for the morning hours across much of the area. The forecast
high temperatures were nudged down only one degree, AS the model
guidance suggests the stratus should scatter out at some point.
However, the temperatures for the morning were cooled quite a bit
such that 16z (11am EST) values RANGE from about 50-55 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]…
A decrease in the 850mb temperatures in the easterly flow regime
should be balanced by deeper mixing on successive days to produce
a gradual warming trend on Friday and Saturday. We will remain
under the influence of the LOW-level RIDGE axis, so dry and SUNNY
weather looks to continue on those two days. The only exception
may be, again, over the coastal waters where perhaps an ISOLATED
SHOWER or two may develop. A mention of RAIN was not added to the
Coastal Waters Forecast at this time, however.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday NIGHT through next Thursday]…
A low-AMPLITUDE pattern is forecast to be in place to start the
extended period and continue into early next week across the CONUS.
This will keep the weather dry through early Tuesday. With heights
relatively high, temperatures will be above NORMAL, with highs in
the MID 70s and lows in the low 50s.

By Tuesday, a TROUGH of modest amplitude will move into the eastern
states and push a cold FRONT towards the northern gulf coast. This
front should provide a CHANCE of rain late Tuesday into Wednesday,
with a slightly cooler and drier airmass moving into the region for
late Wednesday into Thursday. The progressive nature of the upper
pattern should keep any significantly colder AIR well to the north.

&&

.AVIATION [through 06z Friday]…
Low CIGS, which persisted for most of Wednesday, have finally mostly
dissipated early this morning. However, guidance does indicate some
MVFR CIGS returning to KTLH by SUNRISE. Latest satellite imagery
showing some signs of this forecast bearing out. Elsewhere, MVFR
VISIBILITY possible through sunrise. Thereafter, VFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.MARINE…
Easterly flow will continue for the foreseeable future as the
general position of the surface high PRESSURE and ridge axis will
change very little over the next 3-5 days. Therefore, we should
continue to see overnight winds increase to around 15 knots or so
with periodic SCEC conditions, and winds decreasing to 10-15 knots
during the daytime hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Easterly flow over the next several days will keep HUMIDITY
values well above 35 percent for the entire region. No red flag
conditions are anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
A dry stretch of weather will keep river levels relatively similar
over the next FEW days, with no flooding expected.