AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
902 AM EST Mon Dec 3 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Updated at 850 am EST-
The 12 UTC regional surface analysis showed a high pressure ridge
along the Piedmont to the FL Panhandle. Upper air data and vapor
imagery showed a fairly strong ridge over the Southeast, with very
dry air above a subsidence inversion at 800 mb (approx. 6,700 ft)
at Tallahassee. Widespread dense fog developed to our east early
this morning and spread almost to the Apalachicola River. Looking
at our window, this fog was very shallow and should dissipate
within the hour or so. The consensus of the latest Convection
Allowing Models (CAM) runs indicate enough boundary layer moisture
& instability to support shallow moist convection. In fact, there
were already some light showers/sprinkles around Cross City, which
is where the CAM output showed the highest PoP for today. We added
20% PoP to our eastern zones for today, but otherwise made no
changes to the early morning forecast package. Temperatures inland
will flirt with the 80 degree mark once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Wednesday]…
There is a stronger signal in the guidance for a larger area of
fog affecting the area late tonight with a better consensus
amongst the hi-resolution guidance and even the SREF coming on
board with higher probabilities over some areas. Therefore, the
official forecast went ahead and included areas of fog across the
entire area late tonight.

There has been little change in the weak system expected to affect
the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The consensus PoP from
the models was similar to the previous forecast, and the official
forecast shows 30-40% PoPs over the northwest tapering to 10-20%
over the southeast. Rainfall amounts are expected to be meager with
most areas that are lucky enough to receive any rain only picking
up around a tenth of an inch or less. Above average temperatures
are expected to continue, although Wednesday`s highs may be a few
degrees less than today and Tuesday simply due to increased cloud
cover.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]…
Still a very uneventful period with the above normal temps and
only a few periods with slight rain chances through the period.
Things may get a bit more interesting after the beginning of next
week, with the possibility of a more significant low pressure
system developing near the central Gulf Coast and moving
northeastward thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Tuesday]…
Updated at 850 am EST-
The areas of low cigs and dense fog will dissipate through late
morning, followed by unlimited vis and VFR cigs. Winds will be
southeast around 5 KT, with an onshore sea breeze this afternoon
at KECP. Tonight, a bit more return flow moisture is expected to
get into the mix, so all sites are expected to receive some
restrictions, but we are still most confident that the poorest
conditions will be at VLD again.

&&

.MARINE…
The high pressure ridge to our north will shift southward through
Tuesday, keeping winds and seas low. A weak cold front will pass
slowly southeastward through the coastal waters late Wednesday or
early Thursday, but this is expected to have little impact.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Despite the very warm afternoon temperatures during the next
several days, dewpoints will remain sufficiently high to keep
afternoon relative humidities safely away from Red Flag Levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
It is doubtful there will be any significant river rises with the
weak system on Wednesday given the low QPF amounts and current low
river stages.