AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
625 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2012
.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]…
After this morning`s light freeze (which was able to occur before
the thicker CI moved in from the west) comes to an end, temperatures
are finally expected to moderate back into the lower to middle 60s
this afternoon, with even a few upper 60s possible across the
southeast FL Big Bend. This will occur under filtered sunshine
through an increasing CI deck. For tonight, winds will veer around
to the SE then S, advecting in increasing low level moisture to go
along with the High Clouds, as the next week Sfc Low approaches from
the west. This should result in significantly milder low temps,
ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s, with a slight chance of
rain across the western 1/4 of the CWA late tonight.
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]…
Rain chances will be gradually on the increase through the short
term period, as a series of weak low pressure waves approach the CWA
from the west. With the best chances for rain across the NW 1/3 of
the CWA by Tue aftn, High Temps will have have a chance to rebound
into the pleasant lower to middle 70s in many locations. Rain
chances will continue to be on the increase thereafter, but the
heaviest rain is expected to hold off until just after the short
term period. This will occur as the waves of low pressure shift
southward into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, allowing fairly strong
isentropic lift to set up across the region. Also, no thunderstorms
are expected at this time.
.Long Term [Wednesday night through next Monday]…
The period starts with zonal flow aloft and a stationary front
draped across the Tri-State region. Rain driven by isentropic ascent
will increase in coverage and intensity beginning Wednesday night,
lasting through Thursday. Thursday night, a shortwave trough will
dive through the Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast by Friday
morning. The mid/upper level disturbance will act to push the once
stationary boundary through our region bringing and end to the rain.
High pressure will quickly build in and the remainder of the period
will likely remain dry. Temperatures will remain below average
during the afternoons to start the period, increasing to near or
slightly above average by Monday. Overnight lows will start off on
Wednesday night above average and gradually decrease to near average
by Friday night through Sunday night.
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals today, with the
possible exception of late afternoon MVFR ceilings at KECP. Tonight,
MVFR VFR conditions are expected at all terminals today, with the
possible exception of mid to late afternoon MVFR ceilings at KECP.
Tonight, MVFR ceilings will overspread all terminals from south to
north, as southerly flow from the Gulf transports moisture inland.
Winds and seas will continue to gradually diminish over the Coastal
Waters today, as they veer around to the southeast then south, in
response to the Sfc Ridge exiting to our east. Tonight and Tuesday,
winds will increase back to moderate levels out of the south
(possibly reaching cautionary levels for a time) as the pressure
gradient tightens between the Ridge to the East and the approaching
Low pressure system to the west. By late in the week, cautionary
level conditions are expected to return out of the northeast as the
next in the series of low pressure systems traverses off to our
south in the Gulf of Mexico.
Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
No flooding concerns are expected from the recent rainfall.
However, the next low pressure system, which is expected to
manifest itself into a series of weak waves which will traverse
along the Gulf Coast for much of the mid to late week period,
could tally upwards of 1 to 3 inches of rain across the CWA. This
may cause some additional low rises along area rivers.