AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…
The long wave pattern this morning features ridges over the FL
Peninsula and Caribbean and the Pacific NW, and a positively tilted
trough over the central U.S. A 180- to 200-kt upper jet was noted at
250 mb stretching from the TX Panhandle northeastward to Southern
New England. Surface analysis shows a slow moving cold front just
northwest of the forecast area stretching from SC southwest across
Central GA and Southern AL to near Pensacola. Radar shows a narrow
band of rain in the warm sector moving across our western zones with
mainly sprinkles and drizzle northwest of the front. Temperatures
are very mild across the area for this time of night and year. Most
reporting stations were in the mid 60s as of 07Z. The cold front
will work slowly southeastward across the forecast area this morning
and reach the Lower Suwannee River by early afternoon. Max temps
today have likely already been observed across most of the forecast
area. About the only area that will see temps rise higher this
afternoon will be the eastern FL Big Bend zones. Temps over the
northwest half of the forecast area will likely be in the 50s all
day. Forcing for ascent will be weak today. There is some subtle
isentropic upglide noted on the 300K surface and of course there
will be some lift force by the front itself. PoPs will be rather low
ranging from 20-40%, although skies will be overcast for much of the
day behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]…
The unsettled weather will continue through Thursday evening. As the
right entrance region of the upper jet approaches, we will see
somewhat more QG forcing and PoPs will rise accordingly. We are
looking at 40-60% for tonight. On Thursday, likely PoPs are forecast
for the southern half of the forecast area lowing to 30% for the
northern tier of counties north of and ABY-DHN line. Min temps
tonight will remain above normal with abundant cloud cover forecast
to continue. Thursday will be cloudy and chilly day. The clouds and
and rain will restrict max temps to the 50s in most area. Drier air
will move into the area overnight Thursday and this will allow skies
to clear and temps to drop into the 30s for all but the coastal
areas and Dixie County. Coffee and western Geneva Counties could dip
below freezing, but durations do not appear sufficient to warrant
any future watches/warnings at this time. Max temps Friday will rise
to within a degree or two of normal.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]…
The extended period begins with a brief dry period Friday night
through most of Saturday with deep layer ridging over the region.
Then, another disturbance lifts northeastward from the Gulf ahead of
a deepening upper trough crossing the central plains late Saturday.
Rain returns to the forecast and continues into early to midday
Sunday when the axis of the upper trough swings into the southeast
CONUS shunting the moisture to our south and east. The mid/upper
level flow quickly transitions to zonal on Monday followed by
ridging Tuesday through Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure and
a very dry airmass will be in place Monday through the remainder of
the period. Temps will be near to slightly above seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 08Z Wednesday]…
IFR ceilings will prevail at all TAF sites through daybreak along
with MVFR visibilities. Patchy light rain can be expected from time
to time throughout the forecast period as a cold front lingers
across the region. A prolonged period of at least MVFR ceilings are
expected through this afternoon even outside of rain areas.

&&

.MARINE…
Light to moderate onshore winds will shift to offshore as the cold
front passes today. The western waters could see exercise caution
conditions by late in the day. These conditions will spread to the
eastern waters on Thursday with winds then remaining elevated
through Friday. Winds will drop below headline criteria for the
weekend, but will return to cautionary levels Sunday night into
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days, as
an unsettled pattern persists over the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
No issues are expected through the period. Rainfall through the
weekend should be insufficient to produce any significant rises. In
fact many rivers across the northwestern HSA should be in recession.