AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2013
.NEAR TERM [through Tonight]…
Quiescent conditions near the center of a low-level anticyclone are
expected to persist tonight. As a weak cold front begins to approach
the northern part of the forecast area close to 12z, winds may
increase slightly in that area, but they should remain calm with a
fairly strong inversion over the southern half of our area. The
inversion could come into play over parts of the area given the
number of fires that are currently evident on satellite and radar.
Poor mixing with increasing near-surface RH could be sufficient to
lead to some localized reductions in visibility with a combination
of smoke and fog. This will be monitored closely during the evening
hours for possible inclusion of fog in the forecast, or localized
advisories depending on how things evolve.
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]…
The airmass will continue to modify over the next few days as the
upper flow flattens and surface high pressure remains in place
over the region. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 60s for the
next two afternoons, with lows rising into the 40s Thursday night
and the 50s Friday night.
A weak front will approach the region late on Friday. However,
moisture return will be extremely limited and the upper energy
will remain well to the north, which will keep PoPs extremely
limited and rainfall amounts quite low.
.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]…
Guidance has continued to back off on the potential surge of
colder air for this weekend. Models now barely push the cold
front through the region, as the primary upper energy pushes
quickly off to the east. With continuing warming trend in the
guidance, have followed suit in the grids and keep temperatures at
or above normal through the forecast period. The next chance of
significant rain is not anticipated until Tuesday or Wednesday of
.AVIATION [through 18z Thursday]…
Despite the potential for some cloud cover during the TAF period at
some of the terminals, the expectation is that any CIGS would be
VFR. The latest visible satellite and TLH radar shows numerous smoke
plumes from fires around the area, so there may be the potential for
a combination of smoke/haze and fog to reduce visibilities slightly
tonight at some of the terminals. This would most likely be in the
MVFR range, but confidence was not high enough to include in the
TAFs at this time.
High pressure will remain in place over the waters through early
Friday with light winds and minimal seas. A weak front will
approach Friday night and cross the waters on Saturday with a
modest increase in winds in its wake. Easterly flow will develop
by late in the weekend as high pressure builds north of the
Despite continued dry weather on Thursday, minimum RH should remain
above 35%, so red flag conditions are not expected – despite high
dispersions in Florida. Increasing moisture on Friday and Saturday
with a cold front will limit fire weather concerns.
No significant rainfall is expected through the end of the week.