AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
928 AM EST Mon Jan 28 2013
.NEAR TERM [Today]…
A 1033mb High is parked over the Carolina Piedmont this morning,
inducing light easterly flow across the forecast area. Overrunning
southerly and southwesterly flow above this surface layer is
helping to generate some low to mid-level cloudindess. While the
low-level flow is expected to veer more to the southeast this
afternoon and weakend the overrunning, there should still be
enough clouds to possibly dampen solar insolation a bit over the
Big Bend. Therefore, will trim back high temps a degree or two for
this region. Otherwise, no significant changes are planned this
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]…
The axis of a very deep trough will swing across the Four Corners
region Monday night into the southern plains Tuesday. During that
time the upper ridge over the eastern CONUS becomes further
amplified with a surface ridge centered off the southeast U.S.
coast. Low level onshore flow along with building heights will bring
very warm conditions to the Tri-state region with highs around 80
degrees most inland areas.
The upper trough advances into the nation`s mid-section Tuesday
night and Wednesday with the tail end of the associated cold front
pushing into the Lower Mississippi Valley and into our CWA. Short
term models continue to indicate a possible threat for severe
weather with this system on Wednesday with a squall line developing
ahead of the front. Models are in better agreement with the timing
of this system but still differ somewhat on it`s strength for our
CWA. One difference is the strength of the low level jet with the
GFS showing a range of 45-55 kts with the NAM and EURO solution at
55-60+ kts. Also, as of 06z Monday, SPC`s day 4 (Wednesday) outlook
keeps our FA out of the severe risk. Will continue to mention
possible severe threat in the hazardous weather outlook which
appears at this time to be mainly straight line winds but keep
severe wording out of zones for now. PoPs will be tapered mid range
chance west to slight east Tuesday night and then likely for most of
the Tri-state region on Wednesday.
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]…
Once the front clears the area late on Wednesday, dry and seasonably
cool conditions will prevail in its wake with no significant weather
expected through the next weekend.
.AVIATION [Through 12Z Tuesday]…
Scattered IFR cigs should lift by late morning with VFR conditions
at all terminals. The low clouds are likely to return overnight
with IFR conditions possible at all terminals. Fog is also not out
of the question overnight. However, confidence is lower
considering the potential for low and mid clouds.
Patchy fog near the coastline should burn off by midday.
Otherwise, light east to southeast flow will continue over the
coastal waters through the afternoon. No significant changes
planned with the morning update.
No red flag conditions are forecast through Wednesday as minimum
relative humidities are expected to be above critical levels
throughout the forecast area. Drier air will arrive behind a cold
front for Thursday through Saturday. Out FL zones will need to be
monitored for possible red flag conditions on those days.
The upcoming system on Wednesday is expected to be progressive and
bring a general half inch to inch of rain across the area. Flooding
problems are not currently expected.