AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…
Surface data from early this morning show high pressure in place
across the southern portion of the region. A reinforcing cold front
is not far away, moving across the Mid South. At 2 am ET, this cold
front was just entering North Central Alabama and Eastern
Mississippi. This boundary will move through the region today
resulting in a brief increase in northwesterly winds. This will be a
dry cold front with no rain in the forecast today. Temperatures will
still warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region, which
is only a few degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]…
Little change from the previous fcst, as the SE U.S. will be
dominated by the Mean Upper Level Trough which will begin to flatten
out a bit by the end of the period. At the Sfc, High Pressure will
be the rule with another weak Cold Frontal passage on Sunday. This
front is expected to be dry for the Tri-State region as well, with
any isolated showers to our north expected to dissipate ahead of
the front. As for temperatures, tonight will be the greatest
concern, as the Ridge building into the region today will settle
in just to our NE tonight, with a piece of it building in right
overhead on Saturday. That said, still expect very light to near
calm NE winds overnight which should allow for good radiational
cooling. Lows should range from the mid to upper 20s over much of
the interior (tweaked TLH down to 26 degrees, with lows around 30
expected in downtown Tallahassee), with lower to mid 30s nearing
the coast. This should result in a long duration light freeze away
from the coast, with a few of the normally colder locations
possibly nearing a short duration Hard Freeze. Will leave the
current Freeze Watch as is, but did pull patchy frost from the
grids due to expected large T-Td spreads. Lows on Sunday morning
are expected to remain above freezing, except for a few spots
along the Suwannee River Valley. High Temps will continue to
gradually moderate, with mid to upper 60s expected by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]…
Mostly zonal flow will dominate on the southern periphery of
broad eastern U.S. troughing through the period. A weak impulse
will pass overhead late on Monday, however, dry air will limit the
impacts to passing high clouds with no chance for rain. A slightly
stronger mid/upper wave will approach towards the end of the
period. At this time, little to no rain is expected with this
disturbance either. Overall, the period will be dominated by dry
conditions and near or slightly above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 06Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
period. Northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected this
afternoon as a dry cold front moves through the region. Near calm
winds are expected tonight with clear skies.

&&

.MARINE…
With High Pressure remaining in control, with just a couple of dry
Cold Fronts moving through the Coastal Waters through Sunday, light
to moderate winds and seas are expected through the weekend. By
early next week, winds and seas will drop to very low levels for
this time of year, as the next High Pressure Ridge builds in and
remains overhead.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Dry conditions and high dispersions will support red flag conditions
in North Florida today. The required red flag criteria for Alabama
and Georgia will not be met today. Relative humidity values will be
even drier on Saturday with minimum values around 15 percent.
However, because winds will be lighter, red flag conditions are only
anticipated in a few counties in North Florida. A moistening trend
begins on Sunday when red flag potential comes to an end.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
Although there were a few minor rises on some area rivers from
Wednesday`s rainfall (mainly across northern and western portions of
the region), no significant rises in river levels are expected over
the next several days with a dry forecast.