Category Archive

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2012
SYNOPSIS...
AT UPPER LEVELS...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by a LOW-AMPLITUDE
TROUGH/CUTOFF low over Baja CA and and the northeast portion  of the
country, with a similarly low-amplitude RIDGE over PAC NW and
Rockies. This Baja low is expected to MEANDER slowly EWD over
northern Mexico through Friday. Another SHORTWAVE over PAC nw will
amplify AS it continues to dig east-southeast, reaching the Ohio
River Valley by early Friday.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
A broad diffuse HIGH PRESSURE ridge extended north of the Bahamas
through the southern Florida peninsula. Generally lower pressure was
found to the northwest OF CWA. In between, warm FRONT near the
coast. This combination has SET up broad southerly low-level FLOW
over much of the Southeast.

On Thurs, an H5 Trough lingers over N FL with WSW flow and 40kt JET
over area. warm front should lift new during days enhanced by jet.
This should lead to BREEZY to WINDY conditions approaching WIND
ADVISORY criteria, particularly over the northern third of our
forecast area.

As the above upper level shortwave digs and amplifies, surface
CYCLOGENESIS should commence from the Dakotas tonight into the
eastern Great Lakes by Friday. An accompanying cold front trailing
to the southwest will also SURGE southeastward across much of the
central and eastern US, reaching the eastern Gulf Coast on Friday
and will LIKELY be our next STORM system. Until that cold front
passage occurs, there will be periodic chances of RAIN and storms
with breezy south to southwest winds.

There is better model consensus today on the timing of the cold
front, reaching roughly the I-65 corridor just northwest of our area
shortly after SUNRISE, and pushing into the southeast part of our
area (near Dixie County) by 00z Saturday. This places the arrival of
the front squarely in the DIURNAL timeframe, and that`s when the
highest (approx 60%) POPS were concentrated. as the upper level
trough and cold front move SEWD and phase with lingering H5 Trough
over local area. The main concern then is related to potential
severe weather which remains a possibility and will dealt with in
more details on next AFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM [REST OF TONIGHT THRU EARLY THURSDAY]...
Analysis during wed AFTN/early EVE was due to upper shortwave
moving ewd across NB most Apalachee Bay. At surface weak warm front
from SRN la ESE thru the warm gulf CURRENT to our west and then
across and shelf waters of Gulf of MEX. This combination provided
enough lift for ample rain and SCT thunderstorms especially over SE
Big Bend and Apalachee Bay. However, activity waned last FEW hours
as initial shortwave moved ewd reaching E coast by 9PM with some
drying in its WAKE. Also, earlier large scale warm and MOISTURE
ADVECTION shifted NWD. However, AT 9PM another albeit weaker
shortwave was moving ENE across Apalachicola Bay generated showers
across se Big Bend and adjacent waters. Have updated ZFP to lower
pops thru 06z with MAX 60% over water down to less than 20 PCT NRN
tier counties. (ALTHO some light DRIZZLE a good bet over CWA).
satellite PIX implies a few more impulses may move in from waters
later tonight so cant drop pops too much. For 06z-12z, 0-40% NW-SE
GRADIENT with ISOLD tstms across mainly coastal counties and
waters.

Aside from rain chances overnight, tonight will be the first of a
couple of MUGGY nights out ahead of the main system expected to
arrive on Friday. Strengthening surface winds and CLOUD cover and
passing impulses will likely limit dense FOG development across the
region, however, the potential for low STRATUS will be high. Best
CHANCE of fog will be near the coast and e/se of a line from
Tallahassee thru Valdosta and Cross City and adjusted GRIDS
accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION..(thru 00Z Thursday)
Ongoing moist AIR advection from the gulf will keep ceilings in the
IFR/LIFR RANGE for most of the area overnight. Expecting fog to
impact all terminals starting at 3z near the coast and near 5z
further inland, with significantly reduced VIS between 1 to 2SM at
TLH,VLD,and ECP. 40kt winds near 2000ft will keep wind SHEAR wording
in the TAFs from 3z to 14z. Winds will pick up to around 20 KTS
gusting to 30kts region wide tomorrow afternoon and MVFR ceilings
will linger into the afternoon as well.

&&

.MARINE...MID eve buoys showing 10-15kts. winds expected to increase
from w-e overnight with se winds 15-20kt likely with SEAS building
to 4-5 feet offshore. thus will keep SCEC headlines.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
354 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2012
SYNOPSIS...
The long wave pattern is continuing to progress. The RIDGE that was
over the SE US yesterday has moved east over the MID-Atlantic.
Currently over our region is a SHORTWAVE TROUGH that brought some
light RAIN this morning and some CLOUDY skies. Besides a FEW light
showers this morning, today has been a CALM day in terms of weather.
IR and visible imagery show mid-upper level clouds. RADAR is QUIET
with a few leftover showers on the outskirts of the forecast area.
The trough should continue to progress eastward, but more slowly
than yesterday`s ridge AS it will begin lifting and our region
will begin to see more zonal FLOW until a second LOW approaches
Thursday NIGHT. This low could render some weather on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]...
Heavy CLOUD cover and light rain from this morning have made us
lower today`s forecast HIGH today to the mid to upper 60s. Skies are
expected to clear for a little bit with a short break in the cloud
cover. With light southerly winds overnight and high MOISTURE from
RAINFALL and ADVECTION by said winds, FOG is expected across most of
the area starting early tomorrow morning and continuing into the
afternoon. Model forecast soundings and statistical guidance
indicates that the fog could be dense in spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday through Friday Afternoon]...
Plenty of weather concerns in the short term period, as nearly 48
hours of low-level warm advection and associated various rain
chances will be followed by the arrival of a strong cold FRONT on
Friday. We edited the GRIDS today out through 00z Saturday to ensure
a more smooth transition of weather elements into the previous
long-term forecast from last night.

First, model preferences. Differences have re-emerged from what was
a fairly good consensus amongst the 21.00z model suite. This seems
to be largely tied to two features: (1) the upper-level CUTOFF low
that is centered near 28N/117W or just west of Baja California, and
(2) an elongated PV ANOMALY / axis of SHEAR VORTICITY north of a
strong JET streak in the Gulf of Alaska. The general theme amongst
the models is that the shear vorticity will consolidate and dig
southeast into the Plains by Thursday as the jet streak develops
eastward along the NE rim of the Eastern Pacific ridge. This is
expected to lead to low-level CYCLOGENESIS in the Great Lakes or
Ohio River Valley on Thursday, and will aid in driving a deeper cold
AIR mass southeast behind a surging cold front. The new 12z GFS is
much faster with this cold front, pushing it through our area by 18z
Friday, whereas the global model consensus (and prior 00z GFS) was
much slower. In collaboration with surrounding WFOs, TAFB, and HPC,
we have decided to go with the slower cold front timing, with most
weather elements a blend of 21.00z GFS, 21.12z NAM, and 21.00z
ECMWF. There are also major differences in how the models handle the
Baja low, with potential implications for the long term period
(weekend and beyond). That will be sorted out on the overnight shift
by the long term forecaster.

For tomorrow, there is good agreement on a quick round of rain with
a fairly sharp N-S POP/QPF GRADIENT, with highest values south. This
seems to be forced largely in the low levels as isentropic ascent
kicks in as a response to a subtle shortwave trough ejects east from
the Rockies to the east coast in fast, nearly-zonal flow. Arguing
for greater rain coverage is the added benefit of being in the right
entrance region of a 120-130kt upper level jet streak. High-res
model guidance is in excellent agreement that showers will affect
mostly our marine and Florida zones, entering the western half of
our area mainly 14-18z, and then moving quickly east and diminishing
by early Wednesday evening. The various 4km WRF models all indicate
some small amounts of CAPE with some weak-moderate UPDRAFT
velocities out over the Gulf, so THUNDER was added over the water.

The earlier prospects of SCATTERED thunderstorms on Thursday seem to
have dwindled on the latest model guidance. As we are LIKELY to warm
into the upper 70s and potentially near 80 degrees, we should see at
least a weak sea-breeze CIRCULATION develop by the afternoon. 12z
model guidance does seem to support this notion with some light QPF
(0.01-0.05") amounts hugging the coastline during the day. Forecast
soundings don`t indicate much INSTABILITY, with LCL-300mb lapse
rates almost at moist ADIABATIC levels. The SREF model MEAN SBCAPE
is around 300 j/kg with a few members up around 600-800 j/kg. There
will also be quite a bit of WIND shear, with 0-6km bulk shear around
60 knots. Therefore, the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms is
non-zero. One potential flaw is strong WAA in the 900-800mb layer
just atop the boundary layer, particularly in the afternoon. This
could limit updraft strength and keep CONVECTION mostly as shallow
showers. Given the amount of shear, there are a wide RANGE of
convective possibilities on Thursday, so stay tuned!

It looks like we will see a lull for most of Thursday Night as
overnight storms would tend to fire to the northwest of us along the
cold front in the Mid-South. With the strong WAA regime and likely
increase in low cloud cover, it should be a warm night with lows in
the mid 60s. For Friday, severe weather is a possibility and we are
currently outlooked in the Day 4-8 OUTLOOK" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">OUTLOOK with severe probabilities
at or above 30%. More details on this in the coming days, but the
main points with this forecast update are: (1) the timing of the
greatest severe weather threat appears to have shifted into the
daytime on Friday, (2) a DIURNAL timing of the storms would probably
favor a bit more instability, (3) regardless of eventual timing the
ATMOSPHERE will be highly sheared. While there are differences in
the models regarding timing and some MESOSCALE details, they all
agree that there will be an arc of thunderstorms along the front.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through next Tuesday]...
On a more positive note, the cold front and associated
thunderstorms will be exiting quickly to our east Friday evening
setting up a dry...although cooler weekend period. A more zonal
upper level pattern over-TOP surface high PRESSURE building in
from the west supports near zero rain chances Saturday and Sunday.
The airmass arriving is quite chilly through. The late February
sun is getting stronger, so still anticipate highs into the 60s,
however a chilly night looks to be in store for Saturday night. As
of now have gone with WIDESPREAD mid/upper 30s away from the
immediate coast, with normally colder spots down near freezing by
SUNRISE. This will also need to be monitored closely, as the
eventual position of the surface high Saturday night will
determine if a more widespread light FREEZE will be possible.
Seasonal conditions with rebounding TEMPS then expected for the
early portion of next week.

&&

.AVIATION [through 18z Wednesday]...
12Z model guidance is showing lower CIGs and VISBYs for the BR Wed
morning and conditions deteriorating earlier for ABY and DHN than
forecast at the 12Z TAF issuance. BR setup time remains similar to
the last issuance, beginning around 04Z, deteriorating near 09Z, and
improving at 16Z, earlier at ECP and VLD. Model agreement is quite
strong on low VSBY, but weak on CIGs, especially after 14Z. Expect
VFR conditions until around 04Z Wed when conditions FALL to MVFR.
At 09 conditions will fall further to IFR, then return to MVFR
around 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally quiet marine forecast until at least Wednesday. A
NOCTURNAL SURGE of southerly winds could REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH SCEC headline
levels Wednesday Night, subsiding briefly on Thursday, before
ramping up ahead of a cold front Thursday Night into Friday. We
went entirely with a SEAS forecast based on the SWAN model, as the
WW3 (based on the 12z GFS) seems to be: (1) too fast with frontal
timing, and (2) too weak with surface winds. The winds were a
blend of the ECMWF and NAM models which bring the front through
the coastal waters on Friday afternoon. Ahead of the front this
gives SSW winds around 25 KT with seas building to 7-9 feet. The
combination of the rapid ramp-up in wind-waves, plus longer period
SWELL originating from the 15-20kt SSW flow Thursday to Thursday
Night is expected to build surf heights to ADVISORY levels on
Friday (6ft or so), with dangerous rips likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High relative HUMIDITY values keep us well above criteria level
across the region through the end of the work week. Relative
humidity is forecast to decrease to around 30 percent on Saturday
across the area for several hours, so Florida may reach red flag
criteria, but it`s too early to see ERC values, or to be certain of
what the winds will do.

Pensacola  1.82″
Andalusia  1.94″
Albany  2.13″
Pine Level  2.17″
Crestview  2.51″
Troy  2.74″
Wicksburg  2.75″
Dothan  3.25″
Geneva  3.70″
Marianna  4.75″
Bonifay  5.00″
Chipley  5.90″

Biggest total we could find, from a trained spotter, was in Walton County, near Eucheeanna, Fl. (SE of De Funiak Springs), 7 inches!

Overview:

A potent upper level disturbance will move across Southern Texas tonight and lead to the development of a strong low pressure area along theCentral Gulf of Mexico. This low pressure will move northeastward acrossAlabamaand into theSouthern Appalachiansby Sunday morning. Warm and moist air will be drawn northward and inland along theGulfCoastahead of this low pressure area. This will create an environment favorable for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning.

Impacts:

Our computer models have come into a little better agreement today regarding the timing and progression of this storm system. However, there still is some uncertainty with respect to how much instability will be present across the region. While this complicates the forecast slightly, our confidence is increasing that there will be severe weather occurring on Saturday into Sunday morning across a good portion of the region.

The latest computer models indicate that a few strong to severe storms are now possible late Saturday afternoon as a warm frontal boundary lifts north through the region. This portion of the event still remains the most uncertain as the necessary instability may be lacking. Later Saturday evening and early Sunday morning, a squall line is expected to surge eastward across the region. Sufficient instability is anticipated to be available Saturday evening and into the overnight hours, especially across Southeast Alabama,Southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle making another round of severe weather likely. Lesser instability is anticipated to be present across the Florida Big Bend and into South Central Georgia, resulting in lower chances of severe weather late Saturday night and into Sunday morning.

* As the warm front lifts northward on early Saturday afternoon isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will be possible.

* As the squall line moves through the area Saturday evening and into Sunday morning, more widespread damaging winds are anticipated. Isolated tornadoes will still be possible.

Based on the latest data, the Storm Prediction Center has kept the entire region within a Slight Risk for severe weather for Saturday into Sunday morning. The associated severe weather probabilities with this event are still relatively high in western portions of our region at 30 percent with lower values of 15 percent further to the east along the Interstate 75 corridor and into the Florida Big Bend. Of course, there still remains some uncertainty and this outlook may change as the event approaches on Saturday.

Rainfall amounts are expected to be heaviest acrossSoutheast Alabamaand into the Florida Panhandle where 2 to 3 inch totals are anticipated. Lesser amounts are expected further southeast with areas in the Florida Big Bend seeing around 1 inch of rainfall from this system.

We’re expecting heavy rain and numerous intense storms to move through our area 2 times on Saturday. The first time will begin around midday and continue through the early part of Saturday evening. The second surge looks to be after 10pm and continuing into early morning Sunday.

The Slight (30%) chance for Severe Storms in our area means we’re concerned about the likelihood of multiple Tornadoes and Damaging winds.

Tornado Watches and Warnings will be issued.

Make plans now to keep up with quickly changing weather conditions near you this weekend.

Here’s the latest information from the NWS Severe Storm Center in Oklahoma…

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012
  
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN TX THROUGH
   SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES...
  
   ...SYNOPSIS...
  
   A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CHARACTERIZE THE SYNOPTIC
   PATTERN SATURDAY. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CUTOFF UPPER LOW
   LOCATED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS OF LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
   THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE EWD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM WAVE
   APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS
   WILL BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL TX INTO NERN MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY AND
   WILL SUBSEQUENTLY ADVANCE INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY
   NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER SERN TX SATURDAY MORNING IN
   VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF
   UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
   AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD INTO THE SERN STATES...REACHING AL OR GA LATE IN
   THE PERIOD.
  
   ...GULF COASTAL STATES...
  
   OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE A RESERVOIR OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER
   THE CNTRL GULF SOUTH OF A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. RETREATING HIGH
   PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CYCLONE
   SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INLAND ADVANCE OF THE FRONT INTO SRN PORTIONS
   OF THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE
   WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN EARLY
   IN THE PERIOD FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH COULD
   POTENTIALLY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND SLOW THE NWD
   PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
   300-500 J/KG SBCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND DUE PRIMARILY TO NWD
   ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
  
   STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND
   PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS INITIALLY ACROSS SERN TX COASTAL AREA
   WHERE WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE
   APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP
   THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL STATES WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY AND
   OVERNIGHT WHERE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP
   SHEAR AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS ACCOMPANYING THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL
   PROMOTE A RISK OF LEWP/BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND
   AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITHIN THE EXPECTED
   HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
  
   ..DIAL.. 02/17/2012

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012
  
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES THRU THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
  
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CONCERNING SHORT
   WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BRANCHES OF
   STRONGER FLOW THAT PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.  HOWEVER...A
   SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
   PLATEAU ON FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES REGION ON SATURDAY.  THIS
   IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CURRENTLY
   PRESENT...AND CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A STALLED
   SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z
   SATURDAY.
  
   ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS
   CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY TO THE LEE
   OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MOST GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES
   THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
   THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850
   MB JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
   CYCLONE...AS A STRONGLY DIFLUENT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET
   STREAK...SHIFTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF
   90 KTS.
  
   ...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   DESPITE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION EVIDENT IN THE MODEL DATA...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
   THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND WITHIN
   THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.  EVEN IF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT
   STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...AS COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR PROBABLY WILL REMAIN
   DISPLACED TO THE WEST...SUFFICIENT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES
   EXHIBITING LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED
   STORM CLUSTER...OR CLUSTERS...AS WELL AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
  
   IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
   EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS AND TORNADOES...WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC
   THREAT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST
   AHEAD OF THE LINE.
  
   SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE
   CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE LESS CLEAR AS THE
   SURFACE CYCLONE EITHER MIGRATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...OR
   REDEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
905 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2012

DISCUSSION...00 UTC surface analysis shows a 1031 MB HIGH centered
across Northwestern Alabama. The PRESSURE GRADIENT across the South
was continuing to relax AS this high pressure area spreads eastward
with winds becoming near CALM across much of the region. With these
lighter winds tonight and clear skies temperatures have plummeted
into the MID and upper 30s across much of the region with a FEW
locations already at the freezing mark by 01z.

Vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis shows the large cold TROUGH that
was in place across the Eastern CONUS now shifting to a position
more across the Canadian Maritimes. SHORTWAVE ridging was spreading
eastward across the Central CONUS and into the Southeast. Some
Pacific MOISTURE was streaming across the Gulf of Mexico and this
has led to the development of an area of CLOUD cover across the
Central Gulf Coast States.

The primary forecast concern tonight again is with the temperatures.
The forecast is complicated by the arrival of some cloud cover from
the west. Model data shows a gradual and slow moistening of the
500-300 mb layer across the southern half of the region by morning
and this would LIKELY serve to limit how far temperatures would drop
overnight. Feel very confident about winds being essentially calm
overnight, so with the very dry and cold airmass that is in place,
temperatures away from the cloud cover should easily be in the lower
20s by morning based on the latest observations and model data. After
watching TEMPERATURE trends over the last couple of hours, have
decided to adjust temperatures up slightly in the Florida Big Bend,
but still keep minimum values in the lower 20s as it is expected the
cloud cover will have some but not much of an effect on temperatures
before SUNRISE. Aside from that adjustment, not additional changes
are planned with the forecast this evening. Have a great NIGHT!

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will are expected to prevail through the
TAF period with mainly light winds. However, mid and upper level
cloudiness appear to be increasing from the southwest well ahead of
the model guidance, but this will be more of a concern to overnight
LOW temperatures than to Aviation concerns.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and SEAS will continue to diminish this evening and
into the overnight hours as high pressure moves nearer to the marine
area. Expect low winds and seas to persist into Monday before
increasing again on Tuesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2012
...Much colder weather arriving this weekend...
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday NIGHT)...

A MID/upper level shortwave trough will pivot rapidly eastward along
the northern Gulf coast. Decent swath of synoptic support/QG forcing
ahead of this energy will overspread the area this evening. This
area of forcing is already supporting a large area of showers across
southern LA/MS. Global and HI-res model consensus agrees that this
area of showers will expand rapidly into our region this evening.
The QG forcing will align with upper level JET energy to support the
highest SHOWER concentration over the southern half of the
area...and especially coastal areas eastward through the SE Big
Bend. These areas are highlighted with high end 70% POPS, and an
argument could easily be made for higher CATEGORICAL PoPs. POP
GRADIENT will decrease to the north down to 40-50% up toward KDHN
and KABY. Still do expect some of the showers to reach this far
north, however some guidance members insist that the main area of
showers will be more broken in nature north of the FL border. Even
across the far south...this will be a high PoP...low QPF event, with
highest RAINFALL amounts LIKELY remaining under 1/4 inch. This will
be a quick hitting event AS the last of the organized showers are
expected to be exiting the Suwannee River Valley/I-75 corridor by
around 09Z. Surface based CAPE is essential NIL, and even elevated
INSTABILITY is lacking. Showalter indices are all positive and will
not include THUNDER mention. Low temperatures in the 40s.

Saturday:
Cold front will quickly pass east of the forecast area Saturday
morning with a much cooler and drier airmass arriving on BREEZY NW
winds. 850mb TEMPS will FALL below 0C over most areas by the end of
the day. Despite the strength of the cold AIR...excellent DIURNAL
mixing in the post-frontal environment will keep things seasonable
for afternoon highs. Looking for highs to RANGE from the lower 50s
north and west of a Dothan to Albany line, and range upward to the
lower 60s over the SE Big Bend zones. As mentioned above it will be
quite breezy for those with outdoor plans. NW winds sustained
between 15 to 20 mph with gusts near 25 mph common.

Saturday Night:
The cold air will arrive quickly with the setting of the sun. At
this time expecting temperatures by SUNRISE on Sunday to be
generally in the upper 20s...with middle 20s possible across the far
north. CURRENT statistical guidance shows lower/middle 20s for
many locations, however, MOS guidance almost always is too low in
these events with respect to the initial ADVECTION FREEZE...and have
taken this BIAS into account. This will only prevent a hard freeze.
Still anticipate a WIDESPREAD freeze even right down to the coast.
Combine these temps with a steady northerly breeze and WIND chill
reading will reach the upper teens to lower 20s. Will continue to
monitor the situation in case a wind chill ADVISORY becomes
necessary for early Sunday morning.

Sunday/Sunday night:
High pressure will settle southeast from the TN valley toward the
forecast area. The airmass in place and less efficient mixing
will result in a cool day. High temps will struggle into the lower
50s by the late afternoon. The close proximity of the high CENTER
will cause any light afternoon winds will go nearly CALM quickly
during the evening. These calm conditions combined with very dry low
levels suggest temps will fall quickly after SUNSET. Expect to see
normally colder areas fall below freezing potentially by late
evening, and SET up a long duration freeze. This appears to be the
night in which hard freeze conditions will be more likely. Low temps
for normally colder areas may drop into the lower 20s...with most
locations away from the immediate coast falling into the middle 20s.
As is usual with radiational cooling...the immediate coast and more
urbanized inland centers (such as downtown Tallahassee) should end
up a FEW degrees warmer, but still below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through next Friday)...
We`ll see another cold day to start the extended period with
possibly another widespread hard freeze Monday morning mainly east
of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers. Surface high pressure will
be centered over the southeast CONUS with nearly zonal FLOW aloft on
Monday. The high will rapidly move east making way for the next low
pressure system that will bring a weak cold front with RAIN chances
to the region on Tuesday. This front will stall over or just south
of our FA late Tuesday/early Wednesday and then lift north as a warm
front Wednesday/Wednesday night as a stronger low pressure system
begins to develop over the southern plains. Showers/thunderstorms
will begin to overspread the region during the Thursday/Thursday
night time frame with the front forecast to push into the CWA on
Friday. After below NORMAL temps for Monday, the rest of the
extended period will have above seasonal temps.

&&

.MARINE
A weak area of low pressure will pass south of the forecast waters
this evening. In the WAKE of this low, winds will increase from the
Northwest later tonight and are forecast to reach advisory levels
Saturday morning. These advisory level conditions will continue
through Sunday morning. A period of GALE force gusts is possible
Saturday night and this potential will need to be monitored closely.
Winds and SEAS will decrease below headline criteria later Sunday
into the early portion of next week.

&&

.Aviation (through 18Z SAT)...Although VFR conditions should prevail
through the bulk of this TAF period, gradually lowering Vfr level
cigs will predominate the FCST for the remainder of this afternoon
and throughout much of the evening hours. Widespread light rain is
also expected to develop from SW to NE across the terminals, with
possible periods of moderate rain and MVFR level VIS this evening at
TLH, ECP, and VLD. Although some VFR level clouds could linger
behind the cold front for a while, Saturday should be dominated by
clearing skies, much cooler temps, and very gusty NW winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much cooler and drier air will be building in from the northwest on
Saturday on gusty Northwest winds. This very dry air combined with
sustained 15 mph or greater winds and Dispersions greater than 75
will result in a Red Flag WARNING for all of the Florida Big Bend
and Panhandle on Saturday. However, even though relative HUMIDITY
values will be extremely low over the SAME area on Sunday, will hold
off on a Fire Weather WATCH until future ERC values can be
determined. Over Southeast Alabama and Southwest and South Central
Georgia, will issue a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday for expected
long durations of relative humidity below 25 percent.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
07Z water vapor and H4 RUC analysis continues to show a rather
complex upper level pattern across the CONUS this morning. REX block
configuration from 24 hours ago over the western portion of the
continent has broken down, with the closed upper LOW over Colorado
now having opened up and become progressive. This TROUGH and any
significant associated forcing will pass north of our region today.
We continue to see an ACTIVE southern stream FLOW with abundant
MID/upper level energy in the form of HIGH level CIRRUS streaming
northward over the Gulf of Mexico.

At the surface, forecast area resides in a region of weak GRADIENT
between 1035mb high PRESSURE over the central Plains, and a surface
trough in place across the southern FL Peninsula/FL Straits.
Weak/subtle cold FRONT is analyzed slowly approaching our area
across AL. This front is better defined above the surface, but
should at least result in a somewhat drier low level airmass in its
WAKE over the next couple of days. Regional radars do show a FEW
showers up into central AL/Northern GA in closer proximity to the
passing synoptic forcing. However AS mentioned above, this
sufficient forcing will remain to our north and keep SHOWER chances
out of our forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Today,
Mid/Upper level SHORTWAVE passes from the TN valley this morning to
the mid-Atlantic coast this evening. Atmospheric momentum associated
with this energy will be enough to pass a weak cold frontal boundary
through the forecast area by mid/late afternoon. This will be an
uneventful frontal passage with only some clouds and a slight WIND
shift to mark its arrival. Overall, will be a pleasant February day
with filtered sunshine and high temperatures ranging from the upper
60s north to the lower 70s south.

Tonight,
Dry and somewhat cooler NIGHT upcoming to what has been experienced
lately. The drier airmass will allow temperatures to FALL into the
upper 30s to lower 40s for much of the area. The high CENTER will
still be well to our NW keeping the gradient fairly tight. With this
in mind, don`t anticipate much CHANCE of any normally sheltered
areas de-coupling and getting much colder than is currently
forecast. Therefore, temperatures and dewpoint depressions should
stay above the level of a FROST threat.

Thursday/Thursday night,
Little change in the forecast with any significant northern stream
energy remaining well to our north. High level clouds will LIKELY be
on the increase once again by the end of the day as southern stream
JET energy re-develops along the northern Gulf Coast. Plenty of dry
AIR in the lower levels will keep RAIN out of our forecast with high
TEMPS reaching up into the 60s. Surface ridging will SET up just to
our north Thursday night which will bring the potential for some mid
30s temps inland, and a resulting frost potential. However, some
uncertainly remains regarding the amount of mid/high level clouds
that will be overspreading the area. Impressive southern stream jet
energy suggest we will see the cirrus. Even high level cloudiness
can sometimes disrupt the radiative process and help keep temps
warmer than expected. This portion of the forecast will need to be
monitored closely for those with sensitive outdoor vegetation.

Friday,
Uncertainly is beginning to increase by the end of Friday with
regards to energy propagating across the southern Plains and
northern Gulf coast. GFS is showing a scenario in which much of this
energy is absorbed by a large cut-off low near the California Baja
region. ECMWF/Canadian are much more aggressive, and allow the
majority of this shortwave energy to bypass the upper low into the
southern Plains. These models offer solutions that are potentially
wetter for our western zones by Friday evening, and for all of our
zones Friday night. Tough call on this one, but out of respect for
the ECMWF will add slight chance POPS to the GRIDS beginning Friday
afternoon in the far west, and for all zones Friday night. Should
the ECMWF/Canadian solution be the correct trend, then these rain
chances would need to be adjusted upward in future forecast
packages.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
The complex and generally messy large scale pattern is expected to
remain so during the forecast period, while undergoing some
RETROGRESSION, with axis of the MEAN RIDGE over the western U.S.
shifting westward into the eastern Pacific, and the large polar
VORTEX over eastern Canada also evolving westward. The main effect
will be to broaden the mean trough westward across the CONUS,
resulting in a positive tilted trough axis across the Intermountain
West, and a nearly zonal flow eastward across the eastern half of
the country. The southern portion of the stream will remain quite
strong. A series of short waves will drop southward into the mean
trough axis over the Intermountain West, then weaken as they HEAD
rapidly east or northeast across the eastern U.S. As always, the
devil is in the details when it comes to the forecast for he
Tri-State Area. The GFS and Euro continue to diverge predictably
towards the end of the period, in how they handle the short waves
dropping into the mean trough position. The Canadian and EURO are in
better agreement, showing more short wave energy in the southern
stream, which gives me some confidence, and a blend of the two
solutions seems the way to go. Friday night and Saturday short wave
energy will be moving eastward across the eastern U.S. pushing a
cold front well to the south across the southern Florida peninsula,
bringing at least a slight chance of rain, and a SURGE of colder
drier air behind it across the southeast U.S. Temperatures may drop
to near or a little below freezing in some areas on Monday morning.
Then expect a fairly rapid rebound in temperatures by mid week,
along with an increasing chance of rain, as the next short wave
rounds the bottom of the trough and heads northeast. Temperatures
will start out near NORMAL on Saturday, then drop below normal
Sunday and Monday, then trend back to above normal by Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE
A weak cold front will cross the forecast area today. The gradient
behind this front will increase and result in near ADVISORY level
northerly winds tonight through Thursday morning. A surface ridge
will slowly build down from the north later Thursday into Friday
which will act to drop winds and SEAS back down below headline
criteria. Another period of cautionary to advisory level northerly
flow looks to develop during the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)...
VFR conditions  will continue across the Tri-State Area through the
forecast period and beyond, with patches of cirrus occasionally
streaming across the area. Although a drier airmass has spread into
the region, good nighttime cooling will result in temperatures
dropping to near the DEW point temperatures in some areas, allowing
for the formation of some  MIST before daybreak. The mist, in
combination with some lingering SMOKE, will produce patches of MVFR
visibilities primarily across south central Georgia before SUNRISE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air is spreading across the Tri-State Area, and relative
humidities across inland portions of Florida will drop to at or
below 35 percent for several hours this afternoon, along with
relatively high dispersions. However, dispersions are not expected
to be quite high enough to warrant a Red Flag WATCH or WARNING, and
ERC values will continue relatively low. Thursday will remain dry,
with longer periods of critical relative HUMIDITY values, while
dispersions are expected to be a little lower. However, ERC values
are currently expected to remain below critical levels, so while
conditions for Thursday afternoon should be closely monitored, there
are no fire weather concerns at this time.

Our good friend, Bobby Thompson, from Blue Bell Ice Cream, stopped by the Weather Center today and dropped off a couple of gallons to help us celebrate National Weatherperson’s Day!

Oscar’s choice was “The Great Divide” (Vanilla/Chocolate) and I went with Strawberries and Vanilla!

Thanks for thinking of us, Bobby!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
235 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2012

SHORT TERM (Monday through Wednesday night)...Lingering frontal
boundary will washout over the Big Bend on Monday underneath
southwest flow aloft. Temperatures will remain very warm across
the area, especially south of the front where highs will approach
80 degrees once again. Enough lingering moisture may allow for
ISOLATED convection to develop over the eastern Big Bend during
the afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather is expected on Monday.
Primary change for Tuesday will be a lack of POPS over the Big
Bend. Otherwise... TEMPERATURE will remain well above NORMAL for
early February.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through next Sunday)...There are still
significant disagreements between the GFS and Euro on a possible
wave of low pressure in the Gulf for Thursday. The GFS remains the
most aggressive model and shows a cool and rainy day on Thursday.
The Euro has a much more suppressed wave and keeps the area dry.
The Canadian is somewhere in between. The GFS MOS PoPs were
undercut some for Thursday given that it appears to be a wet
outlier. The highest probabilities of RAIN with this system are
over the coastal waters and the southeast Florida big bend. The
models then become out of phase by the end of the period with the
00z GFS showing a deep trough and a blast of cold AIR by the end
of the weekend. The 00z Euro shows weak upper level ridging around
this time with no cold air. The GFS ENSEMBLES show a lot of spread
in the pattern by the end of the period, so temperatures were kept
at moderate levels and above MOS guidance given the GFS`s rather
extreme solution compared to other guidance.

&&

.AVIATION (Through 18z Monday)...AS DIURNAL mixing continues and
the boundary layer deepens, ceilings should continue to jump back
up into the VFR RANGE over most of the area during the afternoon.
MVFR possible around some iso-sctd showers and storms. VCTS added
at TLH and VLD prior to 22z, with some SHRA mentioned at VLD too
as it looks like rain would be most likely at that terminal. Low
clouds may settle back in overnight, and we could see a return to
MVFR through MID-morning Monday at most of the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...Expect to see a brief increase in winds to near 15
knots over the western waters tonight, in the WAKE of a cold
front. No headline are anticipated at this time. Offshore winds
(at or below 15 knots) will continue through the end of the week,
with high pressure situated west of the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Minimum RH will remain above 35% both Monday and
Tuesday afternoon, and thus fire weather concerns are limited.
Slightly drier air works into the area for Wednesday, but winds
are expected to be light.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
705 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AT UPPER LEVELS...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by a large TROUGH
from WRN Great Lakes SWWD to Desert SW with large upper CUTOFF low
over SW KS driving a WINTER STORM. East of this trough, ridging
dominates SE region. A rather dense MID level 9-11K and CIRRUS
canopy emanating from the trough has overspread this region
moderating temperatures.

Through the weekend, the low is forecast to weaken AS it gets left
behind by the faster northern stream FLOW across the Great Lakes. A
series of upper impulses will move EWD but remain well N of CWA. By
12z Sun it should located near the KS/MO border. The end result of
this is a rather suppressed mid and upper level pattern across the
Southeast.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
Analysis shows strong HIGH PRESSURE in place across NC with ridging
down across FL, and a potent low over across the Eastern most
Colorado with cold FRONT SSW to low over SW OK and a warm front SEWD
into NRN Gulf. In between, SLY flow was advecting a good amount of
Gulf MOISTURE NEWD across the Central Gulf States with a more
modified airmass in place across our region.

Overnight, high pressure will move ESE into the Wrn ATLC allowing
the weak warm front to lift north  As a result, local winds shift to
a more sly component allowing more low level moisture to lift
northward ahead of the next storm system and produce some showers
and possibly some FOG. However, with high ridging SWD local
winds will remain above NORMAL. Warm front will lift further NWD on
Saturday with rain shutting off from S-N. High will shift further
SEWD ahead of next cold front with a better CHANCE of fog SAT NIGHT.

Above low will REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH SRN MO Sat morn then to KY/TN in the EVE to
further weaken over mid-ATLC states on Sun. Assocd cold front will
weaken and extend from Srn MO SWWD to TX Sat morn then, front will
move into the region Saturday night into Sunday. Expect cloudy skis,
high HUMIDITY and mild temps ahead of front in warm sector. Absent
upper level support, WIDESPREAD SHOWER activity is not anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY). Expect lows
mid 50s inland to around 60 at coast. Showers weakening this eve as
they run into drier AIR s of warm front boundary so lowered POPS,
especially east of Apalachicola River. Sharp 50-20% NW-SE rain POP
GRADIENT decreasing to 40-0% after 06z.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will generally prevail through the remainder of the
evening despite periodic showers between KDHN and KABY. After
midnight, a trend toward higher areal coverage of MVFR cigs/VIS will
begin and have all terminals with a period of MVFR restrictions
during the later night hours into the first FEW daylight hours of
Saturday. It is not out of the question to see a few brief periods
of IFR, however confidence is not high enough in these restrictions
to include with this TAF package. CIGS/VIS will lift back above VFR
levels by midday Saturday and through the afternoon hours. Have
added a prob30 grouping for a "pop up" shower or storm during the
afternoon hours around KDHN and KABY.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and SEAS are expected to remain elevated tonight as
strong high pressure remains in place north of the region across the
Mid Atlantic States. As the RIDGE moves eastward into the Atlantic,
winds and seas will diminish by Saturday Night with relatively low
winds and seas remaining in place throughout the remainder of the
weekend. A cold front will move across the waters Sunday Night
resulting in a slight increase in offshore winds.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
249 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
The 16 UTC regional surface analysis showed a very weak, 1022 MB
spot LOW along the southeast LA coast and a slow-moving frontal
system from the IN-KY border to north TX. Vapor imagery and upper
AIR data showed a TROUGH propagating east out of the the Central
Plains, with moist southwest FLOW (and areas of RAIN) ahead of it.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday) Recent RADAR/satellite trends indicated
that rain (briefly heavier) was moving into southeast AL and the
eastern FL Panhandle from the west. This rain will slowly spread
eastward tonight, but the forcing for it will be weakening so we
also expect the rain coverage and intensity to be diminishing. Our
QPF for this afternoon through Thursday morning ranges from half an inch
(west of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers) to a quarter of an
inch or less east. There may be enough INSTABILITY and lift for a
FEW thunderstorms through this evening, but thunderstorms will
become much less LIKELY later tonight. Although the 0-6 km
vertical WIND SHEAR magnitudes would support some STORM
organization/UPDRAFT ROTATION, the poor instability and weakening
lift make severe storms unlikely. Most of the rain will end
Thursday morning, but the proximity of a QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
(which will become a warm front lifting northward Friday NIGHT)
warrant a small CHANCE of rain for Thursday afternoon. Rain
chances will increase modestly again by Friday afternoon, mainly
over our north and western zones (around Dothan and Albany).
Temperatures will remain well above average.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Wednesday) It looks like the
pattern will have fairly low predictability during the long RANGE
period. Both the 01/00z GFS and 01/00z Euro develop a rex block over
the central U.S. with a large 500 mb closed low south of an upper
level RIDGE. The closed low eventually opens up into a trough and
moves eastward, but the models differ on the details of when this
occurs. At the surface, broad southeast to south low level flow
ahead of the eventual approach of a cold front may keep a low end
chance of showers in the area through the weekend. Forcing and
instability for thunderstorms looks fairly weak, although an
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM is possible, mainly during the daylight hours.
The timing of the frontal passage is quite unclear at the moment
with the 01/00z GFS favoring a Sunday afternoon passage and the
01/00z Euro favoring more of a Tuesday passage. AS a result, a 20-30
POP was kept in the forecast through Tuesday morning over most of
the area to account for the timing uncertainty. Unfortunately, the
TEMPERATURE forecast also becomes more uncertain for late in the
weekend and early next week due to the timing differences. The raw
GFS is about 10-15 degrees cooler than the raw Euro on the highs for
Monday and Tuesday due to the GFS`s earlier frontal passage.
Curiously though, the GFS MOS HIGH temperature output lines up quite
nicely with the raw Euro (perhaps due to its trend towards
CLIMATOLOGY at this time range), and as a result we were able to use
the GFS MOS temperatures in the official forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions at the terminals will slowly deteriorate throughout
the evening hours as showers spread eastward. Expect MVFR
conditions to arrive at DHN before SUNSET and then ECP shortly
thereafter. Expect WIDESPREAD MVFR conditions at all sites by
midnight with a potentially larger area of IFR conditions at
DHN/ABY before SUNRISE on Thursday. Expect conditions to improve
by 15z, but MVFR conditions should linger through the end of the
TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and SEAS will decline quickly this evening, followed by a
period of low winds and seas until Thursday night and Friday, when
winds and seas may increase to ADVISORY levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns as low level MOISTURE will be plentiful throughout
the period.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
745 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2012

SYNOPSIS...
AT UPPER LEVELS...
DOWNSTREAM from TROUGH from WRN Great Lakes SWWD into CNTRL Plains
and Desert SW, the large scale longwave pattern remains fairly
zonal and progressive with multiple, short waves embedded within the
MEAN FLOW across the Great Lakes and weaker ones across AZ and Gulf
Coast.

During the next 24 HRS, a WSW split flow regime develops with NRN
stream portion of trough tracking from Great Lakes THRU New England
and SRN stream component moving from Desert SW to Wrn Gulf before
lifting NEWD, deamplifying and phasing with Nrn stream trough across
MS/OH Valleys reaching MID-Atlc region early Thurs. Overnight into
early Wed, srn stream SHORTWAVE will move from AZ to TX to LA while
under increasingly SW steering flow, Gulf shortwave moves NEWD
across NE Gulf region.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
Analysis showed HIGH off Carolina Coast with an east-west oriented
RIDGE WWD through Srn GA, and a weak cold FRONT in KS and OK.
24-hour PRESSURE falls over the NW Gulf of Mexico and along
the Gulf Coast suggest the beginning of the development a weak LOW
pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico. During the next 24
hrs, low is forecast to move east Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a
weak short wave (currently over the southwest U.S.). Advancing
UPSTREAM trough will drag weak cold front ESE and (under zonal flow
very slowly) aligned from OH Valley thru TN Valley and N TX Wed
morning. In response, ridge just N of FL will drift S and E and
weaken.

Despite the low being so weak, the models forecast ample deep layer
MOISTURE and large scale lift to support a large area of RAIN. This
reflected in model time heights, i.e. GFS TAE with 0.70 inch PWAT at
00z Wed increasing to 1.51 inch at 00z Thu down under one-inch at
18z Thurs. Expect RAINFALL totals for this event to RANGE from a
quarter of an inch over N FL and S Central GA to an inch along the
FL Panhandle Coast. There could be ISOLATED amounts of up to 3
inches, mainly Panhandle Coastal areas. Although there may be enough
INSTABILITY and lift to support some thunderstorms (mainly near the
coast and over the Gulf coastal waters). Rain chances will decrease
from NW-SE on Thursday AS a weak frontal system (with slightly drier
AIR) moves into the area. As this front stalls Thursday NIGHT and
Friday, slight rain chances will return to the region. behind the
front, high pressure will build over the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Rest of Tonight through early Wednesday)
Increasing mid and high clouds spreading NEWD ahead of Gulf system
will be countered by VEERING light low level winds and high DEW
points. Expect patchy to areas of FOG to develop especially ERN
counties, farthest from clouds and where gradients the weakest.
Will add patchy fog to Ern counties. Expect lows from around 50
inland to near 60 coast.

&&

.AVIATION (through 00z Thursday)...Mid and upper level cloudiness
continues to spread from west to east across the region and low
level clouds will move in overnight with CIGS around 5kft. Periods
of MVFR CIGS and VSBYS are also expected before daybreak along with
SCATTERED showers mainly at ECP and DHN. After daybreak, patchy
light to occasional moderate rain will overspread the area from
southwest to northeast throughout the remainder of the TAF period.
Winds will be light from the southeast to south.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and SEAS will continue to drop below exercise caution levels.
The next CHANCE for near-ADVISORY level conditions will be Thursday
night and Friday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
830 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2012

UPDATE...
A dry cold FRONT passed earlier this morning, leaving colder
temperatures behind it. Lows tonight will be at or below freezing
across most of the region with colder areas dipping into the upper
20s and urban areas such AS downtown Tallahassee staying a little
warmer. HIGH PRESSURE is now building across the area and is raising
the pressure GRADIENT, increasing WIND speeds over the water. Winds
tonight over the marine area will be from the northeast at 15 to 20
knots, which requires a cautionary headline. RAIN chances will
increase later this week by Wednesday, and Thursday will see a
CHANCE of thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION (Through 00Z Tuesday)...
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period with very
light or CALM winds at NIGHT, and E to NE winds between 5 and 10 KTS
during the day on Monday. Sky conditions will have virtually no
impact on aviation, with just patches of high CIRRUS which will
LIKELY be BKN at ECP from time to time

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2012
...Slight Risk of Severe Storms Continues for Thursday Evening
through MID-morning Friday...
UPDATE...

Regarding severe STORM chances Thursday and Thursday night, not
much has changed with the latest 18z guidance. It is a bit
concerning that the 18z NAM forecasts SBCAPE values AS HIGH as
500-1000 j/kg during the late afternoon and evening hours
coincident with increasing LOW and deep layer SHEAR values over
parts of southeast Alabama and the eastern panhandle. We expect a
SQUALL line to enter the western zones during the late afternoon
to early evening hours with damaging straight line winds the main
threat, although an ISOLATED TORNADO cannot be ruled out given the
increasing low level shear. The 18z local hi-res ARW run does show
some strong to severe cells moving onshore in the vicinity of
Panama City during the evening hours, and this bears close
watching. The highest threat of severe weather for the local area
is located across southeast Alabama, the Florida panhandle, and
southwest Georgia, but the threat could extend as far east as
Tallahassee and Albany as well during the overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
Based on PERSISTENCE from last night and MOS guidance, IFR or lower
conditions are expected at all airports with fog developing during
the late night hours. All terminals with the exception of DHN are
expected to see ceilings below airport minimums starting between
06z and 09z. Fog will diminish and ceilings will lift after
SUNRISE. VFR conditions are expected after the fog and ceilings
lift with winds out of the south from 10 to 15 KTS gusting to 25
kts. Some CONVECTION may start to approach KECP and KDHN near the
end of the TAF period, but most of it should occur beyond this TAF
forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast winds will begin to increase ahead of a strong cold FRONT
tonight. This front will bring increasing winds, SEAS, and
thunderstorms to the coastal waters Thursday afternoon through
early Friday. Some of these storms could be severe. Winds will
shift to the west Friday behind the cold front with exercise
caution or low end ADVISORY conditions possible until winds and
seas subside later in the day on Friday. A return to WINDY
conditions is expected again on Sunday.

Tornado damage in Center Point, Alabama, from early morning storms on Mon., Jan. 23, 2012.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1015 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2012

.UPDATE...A tricky FOG forecast is on tap once again tonight. It
is being complicated by an assortment of CLOUD cover at different
levels across the forecast area. Starting with a surface analysis,
it seems AS though a stalled FRONT continues to linger from near
KPAM-KMAI-KTMA, or roughly bisecting our forecast area from SW-NE.
To the north of this front, dewpoints drop off sharply into the
upper 40s and lower 50s, while the LOW-level AIR mass south of the
front is still quite moist (dewpoints 60-65F). The area south of
the front is where we would have the best CHANCE of seeing some
fog development tonight. Indeed by 02z, Apalachicola (KAAF) had
already reported a 1/4SM VISIBILITY and Perry (K40J) had reported
visibility as low as 1/2SM.

HI-resolution model guidance including the 4km WRF and NAM runs,
as well as the HRRR, show the fog initially developing near the
coast and then slowly expanding inland. This seems quite logical,
although it will probably not be a uniform south-to-north
evolution. The aforementioned cloud cover will play a role in
keeping some areas devoid of fog much longer. The latest IR
satellite shows MID-upper level clouds eroding quickly over the
last several hours east of the Apalachicola River, and this is
where the initial Dense Fog ADVISORY was placed for our Florida
zones (02-13z valid time). To the north in Georgia, we coordinated
the advisory area with WFO JAX. BKN-OVC low clouds situated west
of Thomasville and Moultrie should limit the westward extend of
fog in our SW GA zones. Additionally, the front is expected to
slowly drift south overnight, and drier air will slowly work
towards the FL-GA border. Thus, the temporal extent of the fog in
SW GA may be limited to pre-SUNRISE, and the initial advisory for
our GA zones was limited to 02-10z.

Looking ahead to the THUNDERSTORM potential Thursday NIGHT, things
still seem generally on TRACK with previous thinking. SPC SWODY3
places areas west of a DHN-MAI-AAF line in a Slight Risk for
severe thunderstorms. The 25.00z NAM run continues to be a blend
of the 25.12z runs of the faster ECMWF and slower GFS. It brings
some convective PRECIPITATION into our western areas around 03z
Friday (10pm EST Thursday Night). Forecast soundings indicate
about 500 j/kg of near-surface CAPE closer to the Gulf coast, with
a lot of the CAPE profile concentrated in the lowest 3-4km AGL" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">AGL.
Therefore, while the forecast CAPE values are not overwhelming,
the more compact CAPE region would favor greater low-level
accelerations. SHEAR profiles are, as is typical of the cool
season, quite favorable for organized thunderstorms. In fact, a
lot of the shear in the 0-3km layer will LIKELY be concentrated in
the lowest 500m AGL. There is some concern about southeasterly
FLOW ahead of the approaching front not being the most favorable
pattern for MOISTURE return. However, this may be negated by
fairly warm water temperatures with both of our offshore buoys at
71F this evening. Bottom line, there will be a lot of low-level
shear and a lot will ultimately depend on the lapse rates and CAPE
profiles in the lowest 3-4km. The HWO wording will be modified
this evening to indicate a bit more concern.

&&

.AVIATION [through 00z Thursday]...With front lingering along the
I-10 corridor overnight, low cigs/VSBY may be an issue for KECP,
KTLH, and KVLD. To the north, enough dry air is expected to keep
conditions VFR through the forecast period. Best chance for
conditions near airport mins will be KVLD by morning. Slightly
better conditions expected to the west. Clouds will gradually lift
through the morning with VFR conditions everywhere by the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for all of
our coastal waters within 20 NM of shore until 16z Wednesday. This
was the result of a FEW surface observations near the coast
reporting visibilities below 1 mile, as well as NUMEROUS HIGH-res
models showing strong indications of fog. The fog is expected to
lift around mid-morning with enough mixing in the marine boundary
layer to dissipate the dense fog. With offshore buoys SSTs running
at 71F, fog is not a concern for the offshore zones.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TALLAHASSEE FL 1017 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2012

.UPDATE...The thin band of RAIN and thunderstorms has been pushing
gradually into our forecast area this evening from west to east,
reaching a EZM-ABY-MAI-ECP line by around 0230z. This activity has
advanced ahead of the main cold FRONT, which extended from just NW
of Atlanta to far southern Mississippi. A much drier AIR mass was
noted behind the front, with dewpoints 35-45F on most surface OBS.
HIGH-resolution model guidance, including all flavors of the 4km
WRF AS well as the HRRR, dminishes this activity to just ISOLATED
showers around 06z. This seems to match recent RADAR and LIGHTNING
trends, and makes sense with a lack of strong LOW-level forcing.
We used a 3-HR POP trend with hourly weather GRIDS to time the
PRECIPITATION trends in the very near term (0-6hr).

The other concern tonight is FOG potential. One area of fog was
already developing in the WAKE of the precipitation across SE
Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle. KTOI and KCEW (both
just outside our forecast area) have reported visibilities as low
as 1/4SM in the past hour or so. Therefore, as the rain moves out
of our northwestern areas we will probably see some fog develop.
This may be abbreviated somewhat by the arrival of the main front
later tonight and therefore some drier air. As such, confidence
was not high enough in true dense fog (1/4SM or less) developing
to issue any ADVISORY in our AL zones and adjacent FL/GA zones.
Meanwhile, some of the high-resolution guidance and VSREF
probabilities indicate some potential for dense fog over Apalachee
Bay and into our eastern Big Bend counties as well, particularly
after 06z. There is uncertainty in those locations related to the
dense MID level CLOUD cover BLOWING off the CONVECTION to the
west. Also, no observations in that area have any restricted
VISIBILITY at this time. It isn`t inconceivable that a Dense Fog
Advisory may be needed later tonight, but confidence is not high
enough at this juncture to accurately place one.

Some minor tweaks were made to the weather and POPS into tomorrow
afternoon as well. Our 18z local 4km WRF-ARW, and to a lesser
extent the 12z SPC WRF-NMM, indicate some more focused afternoon
THUNDERSTORM activity around the rim of Apalachee Bay, from near
Apalachicola up towards Tallahassee and Madison. This seems to be
related to some enhanced onshore FLOW off the cooler waters as the
land areas heat up. PoPs were nudged up 5-10% in aforementioned
corridor. WRF forecast soundings show about 1000 j/kg of MLCAPE in
the afternoon, so THUNDER seems like a good bet south of wherever
the stalled cold front sets up.

&&

.AVIATION [through 00z Wednesday]...Tricky TAF package for the
overnight hours into Tuesday. Approaching cold front is forecast
to stall along the I-10 corridor all day Tuesday, creating impacts
for KTLH, KECP, and KVLD. SCATTERED showers and will impact KDHN,
KABY, and KECP for the next several hours before the activity
weakens. MVFR conditions expected at these sites through the
NIGHT. Conditions will improve through the day for the northern
terminals, which will be well north of the front. Farther south,
after patchy fog and low cigs overnight, conditions will LIKELY
only improve to near Alt. Arpt. thresholds during the day.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...Considered a Marine Dense Fog Advisory for nearshore
waters from Apalachicola to the mouth of the Suwannee River.
However, despite a 63 degree dewpoint, Keaton Beach was holding
steady with a 2F dewpoint DEPRESSION, and there was no evidence of
any fog having developed yet at any coastal observations. This
will need to be monitored closely during the overnight. Subdued
SEAS and winds will continue through Wednesday when there should
be a gradual increase in southeasterly winds as a low develops
along the Texas Gulf coast. A front still looks to arrive late
Thursday Night, and advisory level winds and seas will be possible
just before and after the front. The front also looks to be
accompanied by some thunderstorms.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
850 AM EST SAT Jan 21 2012

.NEAR TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...
MID/upper level SHORTWAVE IMPULSE continues to quickly translate
eastward from the lower MS valley toward the southern
Appalachians/Carolinas this morning. TROUGH axis now extends from
western TN to northern MS, noted by significant drying/SUBSIDENCE in
its WAKE over AR/northern LA. At the surface, the cold FRONT is
aligned ahead of the upper trough axis from eastern TN, southwest
through northern AL/central MS.

Large scale forcing/synoptic ascent ahead of the upper trough
combined with surface focus, and a general WAA regime ahead of the
cold front is forcing a solid line of CONVECTION over north-central
AL, and more SCATTERED variety convection further south and east
across AL/GA.

A large TORNADO WATCH box remains in effect just to our north across
central AL/GA related to this convection. SPC continues to OUTLOOK a
slight risk of severe weather co-located with this watch and also
extending a bit further south into portions of our SE AL/SW GA
zones.

The location of this slight risk zone still appears appropriate
after analyzing the latest output from our ENSEMBLE suite of CAM
(convective allowing models). Good agreement among these models
showing the potential for organized and rotating updrafts in the
vicinity of our far northern zones (mainly along the north of a line
from Dothan to Albany) later this morning through early this
evening. Will continue to monitor, but it does appear that the
window for the best severe potential will close off fairly early
this evening AS the shortwave impulse and resulting synoptic
forcing/SHEAR profiles shift past our area. With this quick exit of
the most favorable conditions, the potential to support severe
thunderstorms further south, especially along and south of the I-10
corridor appears LOW. However, will continue to monitor trends in
case the threat area needs to be briefly adjusted south. Either way,
the low level JET will be east of our area by 00-02Z with upper
HEIGHT rises/anti-cyclonic FLOW building in from the west. Therefore
some POPS will remain in the forecast overnight, but the threat for
severe weather looks to be over shortly after dark.

The forecast emphasis by later this evening will have shifted from
severe weather potential to dense FOG potential. Appears that a very
favorable setup for a dense fog event is in the making across a vast
majority of the forecast area. The cold front will be stalling over
or just north of our AL/GA zones tonight, allowing a continued
moist/southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico. CURRENT forecast
dewpoints crossing the nearshore waters tonight are 2-5 degrees
higher than the surface water TEMPS. This is a good setup for
ADVECTION fog to move ashore/spread inland. Combine this with
an already favorable setup due to the general NVA/subsidence
overhead in the wake of the shortwave, and dense fog is a good bet.
All available HI-res guidance are picking up on this potential, and
the SREF probabilities for fog are very HIGH. The potential for
dense fog should SET in fairly early...by 03-05Z south of the I-10
corridor and expand quickly inland after midnight. Will continue to
highlight this potential in the GRIDS for the morning update.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will prevail through Monday along the western edge
of surface high PRESSURE. A weak front will pass over our coastal
and offshore waters late on Monday allowing winds to shift to the
north, and eventually to the east as high pressure builds in north
of our area. Winds and SEAS are not expected to increase
significantly with the passage of the front. At this time, no
headlines are expected through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)...
Areas of IFR VIS/CIG should slowly lift through 15Z. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop into our NW areas
by early afternoon. South to southwest winds will increase during
the day with frequent gusts over 20 knots. There remains a threat
for ISOLATED severe storms around DHN and ABY. THUNDERSTORM activity
should diminish during the early evening, but will quickly be
replaced by a potential WIDESPREAD fog event, which is expected to
develop earlier in the NIGHT and be more widespread than what we are
see this morning. The potential appears quite high at this point for
a widespread IFR or lower event at all terminals. The setup is
favorable for early fog development for KECP and KTLH, possibly
before 03-04Z, with fog rapidly spreading inland after midnight.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2012

SHORT TERM [Tuesday through Wednesday NIGHT]...The short term
period will be encompassed by a frontal passage. The cold FRONT in
question currently stretches from eastern Ontario to northern
Missouri, and then arcs westward through southern Kansas. A
frontal wave developing along the front in the central Plains is
expected to grow into a surface low as a low amplitude upper level
TROUGH ejects into the Plains. The rapid CYCLOGENESIS in the Great
Lakes and up the ST. Lawrence Seaway, along with the progressive
zonal flow aloft, should help drive a cold front into the Gulf
Coast region late Tuesday Night and early Wednesday.

Tuesday: Despite some gradually increasing CLOUD cover, especially
above 10,000 feet, it still looks like a pretty warm day. There is
good agreement amongst the NAM, GFS, and GEM that 850mb TEMPS will
SURGE up into the +13C to +14C RANGE. Even if the TEMPERATURE
profile in the low-levels ends up being closer to the moist
ADIABATIC lapse rate, it would still LIKELY result in highs in the
low-to-mid 70s. The southeastward progression of POPS was delayed
relative to previous forecasts, and it wouldn`t be entirely
surprising to see most of the area staying dry prior to 00z Wed.
There may be a FEW showers in the THETAE ADVECTION MAX near the
coast, as is hinted at by our local 4km WRF-ARW, but confidence is
not high enough to portray that scenario yet.

Tuesday Night: The cold front finally pushes into our area. Timing
differences on the 16.12z SET of models are much less than in
previous model runs. For this forecast package, we used ENSEMBLE
approach. SREF and GFS Ensemble means have roughly the SAME timing
with the front entering our Alabama zones (NW corner of our area)
around 06z Wednesday, and reaching a TMA-TLH-AAF line by 12z.
Likely PoPs were included behind the front on Tuesday Night, where
the bulk of the PRECIPITATION will occur. ISOLATED THUNDER was
included as well, with MUCAPE 200-400 j/kg and equilibrium level
around -25 to -30C. For temperatures, we used a non-DIURNAL trend
as they will likely be almost steady ahead of the cold front for
much of the night.

Wednesday: As the front quickly exits the area, precipitation
should come to an end. It will be a cooler day with highs closer
to seasonal normals (low-to-mid 60s). Light FREEZE possible for
Wednesday Night.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through next Monday]...Extended forecast
period will begin Thursday with a rather unamplified upper level
pattern across the CONUS, consisting of broad riding over the
inter-mountain west and broad troughing over the eastern half of
the nation. Wednesday`s cold front will be well to our south by
Thursday morning with high pressure building in from the north in
its WAKE. Some slight disagreement among the global guidance suite
as to the position of the surface high, with the GFS building the
CENTER overhead, and the the ECMWF/Canadian showing the high
center up over the Carolinas. The GFS would be a colder solution
Wednesday night, as the high position would favor a better
radiational cooling setup. Will not deviate much from the MEX
numbers for now which bring the normally colder inland spots down
into the lower 30s. A solution closer to the EC/Canadian will
lower the potential for significant coverage of subfreezing temps.
Overall pattern becomes quite zonal in nature for Friday with just
a weak shortwave riding the flow across the central portions of
the country. Influence of this energy will hold off until Saturday
providing a dry and warm final day of the workweek. Friday should
see highs well into the 60s to around 70 degrees away from the
immediate coast, where onshore flow off the cooler shelf waters
will hold temps in the lower/mid 60s.

GFS/ECMWF do not agree on the evolution of shortwave energy by the
time it arrives here in the SE part of the CONUS. GFS is very
progressive, passing the energy over us, and off the SE coast by
Saturday evening. The GFS solution has very little, if any, surface
REFLECTION associated with this energy, and only a CHANCE of a few
showers. ECMWF is slower and stronger with its shortwave. This
solution does show a surface reflection/front moving into our
northern areas Saturday night. For now did not choose to follow this
solution which would keep SHOWER chances in the forecast Saturday
night. In fact, will continue to follow the GFS pattern through the
early portion of next week, as the ECMWF becomes somewhat
questionable. GFS keeps our area with a general southerly low level
flow underneath a zonal to ridged upper level pattern. This would
suggest above NORMAL temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Can not
rule out a few isolated showers embedded with the southerly flow,
however a generally dry forecast will also be shown.

&&

.MARINE...The descending ASCAT pass at 1914z showed much of the
coastal waters (except the two eastern nearshore segments) with
15-20 KNOT winds. In fact, there were some values around 20kt in
our western offshore zone. Both of the buoys just outside our
marine zones were reporting 17-19kt winds, so the scatterometer
data is probably pretty accurate. Thus, winds have been slower to
decrease than models have indicated. The "Small Craft Exercise
Caution" headline will be continued into Tuesday morning for all
but the two eastern nearshore segments. Although the central
segments may see winds decrease briefly in the evening, they are
expected to increase once again after midnight. After a brief
lull, there are likely to be SCEC conditions again late Tuesday
Night and early Wednesday as the cold front comes through. With
respect to sensible weather, we added patchy FOG to the nearshore
zones from 18z Tuesday to 18z Wednesday where RH was above 85% in
the forecast GRIDS. This timeframe encompasses a surge of higher
dewpoints in the 60-62F range (compared with observed water temps
of 58F and 56F at Panama City and Apalachicola respectively).

&&

.AVIATION [through 18z Tuesday]...Mid and upper clouds will
continue to impact area terminals into Tuesday. However,
prevailing conditions are expected to remain VFR. There is some
possibility of brief MVFR conditions at KECP and KDHN after 12z
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Relatively moist onshore flow will continue into
Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This will keep
HUMIDITY values well above critical levels, as well as provide some
RAINFALL late Tuesday into Wednesday. Much drier AIR will push in
behind the front for Thursday with humidity values dropping into the
20s for much of the region.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR
SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ...
SOUTHWEST GA AND FL BIG BEND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
722 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012

HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM EST / 6PM CST

.BR TAE 0116 E DH19/TAIRZX/DH19/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ
:
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE
:AS OF 7PM EST
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
TLH  : TALLAHASSEE              :  69 /  28 /  0.00
AAF  : APALACHICOLA             :  65 /  36 /  0.00
40J  : PERRY                    :  72 /  30 /  0.00
CTY  : CROSS CITY               :  71 /  26 /  0.00
JAX  : JACKSONVILLE INTL        :  68 /  30 /  0.00
ABY  : ALBANY                   :  69 /  33 /  0.00
VAD  : MOODY AFB                :  68 /  31 /  0.00
VLD  : VALDOSTA                 :  71 /  32 /  0.00
BGE  : BAINBRIDGE               :  70 /  34 /
BIJ  : BLAKELY                  :  66 /  28 /
MGR  : MOULTRIE                 :  68 /  34 /
TVI  : THOMASVILLE              :  68 /  34 /
:
.END

.BR TAE 0116 C DH18/TAIRZX/DH18/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ
:
:AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE
:AS OF 6PM CST
:
:                                 MAX   MIN
:                                 TEMP  TEMP   PCPN
ECP  : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT :  66 /  34 /  0.00
PAM  : TYNDALL AFB              :  67 /  35 /  0.00
VPS  : EGLIN AFB ASOS           :  64 /  37 /  0.00
CEW  : CRESTVIEW ASOS           :  68 /  30 /  0.00
PNS  : PENSACOLA REGIONAL ASOS  :  69 /  43 /  0.01
MAI  : MARIANNA                 :  69 /  32 /  0.00
MOB  : MOBILE ASOS              :  72 /  43 /  0.00
DHN  : DOTHAN                   :  68 /  34 /  0.00
OZR  : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD :  68 /  34 /  0.00
LOR  : FT RUCKER HELIPORT       :  69 /  29 /  0.00

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
910 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2012

NEAR TERM (Tonight)...
The back edge of the CIRRUS was rapidly pushing eastward across our
western zones at 02z and will be a non-factor on our minimum TEMPS.
The surface HIGH centered along the western Gulf coast this evening
will move little overnight. Thus, despite a very dry airmass in
place along with clearing skies, ideal radiational cooling
conditions will not occur. However, we are still expecting
unseasonably cold temperatures with inland areas dropping into the
MID to upper 20s. The only question continues to be whether some
locations experience a hard FREEZE (25 degrees or less for 2 or more
hours). Temperatures at 00z were already a FEW degrees below MOS
guidance where we are forecasting lows in the 25-26 degree RANGE.
This would encompass a large portion of the eastern Big bend. Will
be updated GRIDS and zones shortly along with issuing a Hard Freeze
WARNING for Jefferson, Madison, Inland Taylor, Lafayette and Inland
Dixie counties from 08z until 14z Saturday.

&&
SHORT TERM (Saturday through Sunday NIGHT)...The MEAN eastern
trough will be maintained through Saturday night as a pair of weak
shortwaves move through the base. While neither of these
shortwaves will push colder air in the region, they will serve to
slow the moderation of the airmass currently in place. After a
cold start tomorrow morning, high temperatures are forecast to
REACH the upper 50s by mid-afternoon. Another freeze will be
possible Sunday night as the surface high remains in a favorable
position for radiational cooling. Forecast temps are 4 to 5
degrees warmer than tonight with lows from 30 to 35 away from the
coast.

Heights will begin to rise on Sunday as the upper trough lifts
northeast and an upper ridge begins to build in from the west.
This will allow temperatures to continue moderating with highs in
the lower to mid 60s. Low temperatures should remain above
freezing Sunday night.

.LONG TERM (Monday through next Friday)...The large scale
longwave pattern commences fairly amplified. This is highlighted
in the NRN stream by weak troughing across WRN states and extreme
Wrn Atlc and ridging in between. SRN stream with weak troughing
PAC Coast to TX and ridging EWD into extreme Wrn Atlc. At surface,
high along NC/VA coast with ridge axis SWWD into Apalachee Bay.
Low in Canada N of MN with cold front Swwd into Colorado. This
place local area in very dry pattern.

During the rest of the period, Wrn upper trough digs Ewd while Srn
stream upper ridge moves offshore with Srn flow becoming nearly
zonal and stays so before weak troughing approaches shifting flow to
SWLY on Fri. Second upper trough over Gulf digs rapidly ESE Tuesday
and Tuesday night. At surface, Above troughs push surface low moves
to Srn Great Lakes kicking high into Atlc. Assocd cold front with
limited INSTABILITY dragged rapidly SEWD with deep SLY flow setup
from Gulf. GFS and ECMWF similar in timing and intensity of
front pushed THRU CWA Tues night exiting Wed morn ERN most zones
bringing SCT shwrs and a few tstms Tues AFTN into early Wed. In its
wake, strong high builds SEWD from Srn Plains Ewd spreading a
reinforcing shot of cold and very dry air across local region Wed
into Fri. By end of period high pushed offshore with next low moving
NEWD into TN valley dragging trailing cold front to Wrn Gulf. In
response, onshore flow with increasing chances of RAIN commences
again across local area by end of Fri.

Forecast will show Sct POPS Tues aftn into Wed. Otherwise NIL pops
thru period. Ahead of the front MIN temps will be around 10 degrees
above CLIMO Mon and Tues nights dropping to at or below climo Wed
and Thurs nights and may reach freezing in coldest locales. MAX
temps commence at least 10 degrees above climo on Tues dropping to
at or below climo on Wed then inching up to a few degrees above
climo by Fri. Average inland min/max temps are 39/62.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
911 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2012

NEAR TERM (TONIGHT)...
Cold ADVECTION will drop TEMPS steadily through the NIGHT and the
freezing line should stretch from Ocilla GA southwest to TLH and
west to ECP by 12Z. Total FREEZE durations across our Southeast AL
zones MAX out at about 5 hours over Coffee County. Winds will also
stay up all night, although we will lose the gusts. Wind chill
readings will be down into the 20s northwest of a line from VLD to
TLH to PAM. Inland portions of the FL Panhandle, Southeast AL and
adjacent portions of Southwest GA will see minimum wind chill
readings in the lower 20s around SUNRISE, just shy of advisory
criteria.

&&

.MARINE (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
Small craft advisory conditions have returned to the marine area
this evening in the WAKE of a cold front. Elevated winds and SEAS
will persist into Friday morning before high pressure begins to move
back over the water resulting in diminishing winds and seas.
Generally light winds and low seas are expected throughout the
weekend AS high pressure hovers just northwest of the marine area.

&&

.AVIATION (THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)...
Winds have shifted to the west and northwest at all TAF sites except
VLD where the front was just about to push through at 01z. Wind
speeds will continue to be in the 10 to 15 KT RANGE and gusty until
06z to 09z before diminishing to around or under 10kts for the
remainder of the forecast period. Aside from a SCATTERING of low
level clouds, expect only CIRRUS to stream over the region tonight
and Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A very dry airmass will settle in across the region
through the weekend, with RH values dropping into the lower 20s
Friday and Saturday afternoons. Durations of critical RH will be
right around 3 to 4 hours across SE AL/SW GA for both days. Will
leave the Fire WX WATCH for Friday afternoon unchanged and add a
Watch for Saturday afternoon. Dispersions across Florida should
remain below 75, with no headlines needed.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
237 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2012

SYNOPSIS...18 UTC surface analysis shows a 998 MB occluded surface
LOW across Central Kentucky. The cold FRONT that moved through our
region today was moving across Southeastern Georgia and Northeastern
Florida. A somewhat drier and cooler airmass had moved in across the
region this afternoon, however, a much more substantive, albeit dry,
cold front is surging southeast across the Plains and will be moving
through the region tomorrow resulting in another shot of cold
temperatures for the weekend.

Vapor imagery and upper AIR data show the upper low across the
Southeastern U.S. starting to pivot northeastward into the Carolinas
AS a deeper TROF amplifies and surges southeastward across the HIGH
Plains. This is the next step in the overall evolution of the
pattern across the CONUS toward an amplifying TROUGH in the Eastern
CONUS and a building RIDGE across toward the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT).
Post frontal cloudiness across the region will slowly thin and
dissipate overnight leaving a period of mostly clear skies overnight
with cool temperatures in the low to MID 40s. Some of the model
guidance indicates some patchy FOG potential, most LIKELY due to the
moist ground conditions and relatively light winds overnight. Even
with patchy fog possible, do not anticipate any significant issues,
especially when compared with the foggy conditions experienced
earlier this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY).
The airmass behind this morning`s cold front does not have much in
the way of cool air behind it, but the cold front projected to pass
through late Thursday afternoon and evening will bring much colder
and drier air to our region for Friday and Saturday, with a light
FREEZE possible Friday and Saturday mornings. Although the deep
layer MOISTURE with this front does not look particularly
impressive, the NAM, NAM MOS, and CONVECTION allowing NWP guidance
forecast a solid (but thin) line of RAIN with the front. The GFS MOS
continues its trend of POP of 10 percent. As a compromise we are
forecasting a 30 percent CHANCE of light showers (QPF .05 inches or
less). Ahead of the cold front Thursday, highs will REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH the upper
60s north to mid 70s south. Highs will only be in the 50s Friday and
Saturday. Strong winds aloft will likely mix down to the surface as
strong WIND gusts (25-35 KT) Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY).
This ridge is then expected to essentially camp out over the region
for the remainder of the weekend into the beginning of next week,
keeping TEMPS about 5-10 degrees below climatological values until
highs get back to NORMAL by Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday and
Wednesday (as this Ridge slides off to our northeast), it appears
that a rather diffuse low PRESSURE system will enter our region from
the west, bringing with it the next chance of rain along with above
normal temps. At this time, there appears very little in the way of
dynamical or thermodynamical support for this system, so any strong
to severe storms do not appear to be in the cards at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Ceilings have lifted to VFR or SCATTERED out across the
region. Expect this to be the case through much of the overnight
hours. The potential exists for an MVFR VISIBILITY restriction at
VLD before SUNRISE. As the cold front approaches on Thursday,
SCT-BKN clouds are expected around 3500ft, though some guidance
indicates the potential for a brief MVFR CEILING before the frontal
passage. After the front moves through, BREEZY northwest winds up to
25 knots can be expected during the daytime hours.

&&

.MARINE...Winds will continue at ADVISORY levels into the early
evening hours before briefly diminishing. However, SEAS are expected
to remain near advisory levels into Thursday afternoon. Winds will
increase one again on Thursday afternoon and evening in the WAKE of
a strong dry cold front. High pressure will build back near the
marine area on Friday allowing for winds and seas to diminish into
the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The breezy conditions and good mixing Thursday and
Friday will lead to unusually high DISPERSION values each afternoon.
The combination of low relative HUMIDITY and high dispersions values
could pose a risk for Red Flag conditions Friday, and possibly
Saturday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
830 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2012

...There is a slight Risk of Severe Storms Tonight THRU Wed morning
for SE Ala and for the FL Panhandle...

.SYNOPSIS...
Around 7-730 pm, some small MESO-scale feature moved thru southern
Georgia generating brief but strong WIND gusts with multiple trees
down across Decatur County.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
The large scale split FLOW pattern this Tues evening is highlighted
in NRN stream by troughing over WRN states and broad ridging EWD to
ERN seaboard. Conversely, SRN stream more amplified with ridging Wrn
and Ern states and deep TROUGH in between with 553DM closed LOW over
NE TX. Potent SHORTWAVE approaching LWR MS Valley.

Over the next 12-18 HRS, this low will progress EWD to MS/AL in
response to Nrn stream trough amplifying over Nrn Rockies/Plains.
Assocd speed MAX approaching 80KT and ahead of H5 low PROGGED to
eject NEWD across SRN AL/FL Panhandle and gradually weaken AS upper
low opens up. Shortwave moves from Lwr Ms Valley thru TN Valley and
strong cooling and HEIGHT falls over LA/MS this evening that will
push EWD into the Wrn CWA overnight.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
Analysis shows an occluding 1006 MB low centered over SE AR with a
QUASI-STATIONARY boundary located from this low ESE to across
S/CNTRL Al/SRN GA ewd to Atlc. The warm sector continues to be
marked by weak INSTABILITY (MU Capes 250-500 j/kg) but strong SHEAR
(06km 60-70kt). Another quasi-stationary coastal FRONT had SET up
about 50 NM or so south of the FL Panhandle/AL Coast. The result is
that the true surface-based instability continues to be well
offshore and will prove difficult to go NWD toward the Gulf Coast
rest of tonight. In fact,UPSTREAM radars earlier indicated that
thunderstorms struggled to develop in the warm sector of Ern LA/MS
due primarily to weak lapse rates, extensive CLOUD cover and limited
instability. In fact, this extensive cloud cover emanating from
ongoing upstream convective clusters kept local conditions mostly
CLOUDY and cooler on Tuesday.

&&

.REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
Elevated thunderstorms will be possible towards midnight over
interior sections with best forcing occurs as the upper low
approaches the area. The primary forecast question will be the
potential for severe weather but this looking less and less LIKELY.
With CURRENT OVERRUNNING over cold front producing extensive
cloudiness and warm MID layers, chances of generating enough
instability to produce WIDESPREAD surface based land thunderstorms
not HIGH. Regional meso-analysis seems to confirm that the area for
best surface-based instability will remain along the coast and
especially offshore and will likely only gradually pivot northward
toward the Gulf Coast States as the surface low continues to
occlude, deepen and lift northward into Nrn AL by 12Z Wed dragging
cold front to Lwr Ms Valley later tonight and across our CWA on Wed.

Still looks like a low CAPE/high shear generally linear event.
The kinematic fields and 500 mb height falls remain reasonably
impressive locally as the upper low drives ENE through SRN AL with
cooling aloft helping to raise DEW points to near 60F...before
lifting into N GA on Wednesday allowing for some destabilization.
However,lapse rates meager restricting MU Cape to below 500 j/kg and
this will focus along a very narrow axis directly ahead of the
cold front. However, somewhat veered but still strong LLJ near 50kts
crosses Ern Gulf states with strong warm sector moving progressively
NWD. Overall, all this kinematic and dynamical forcing will likely
be unable to overcome the prohibitive thermodynamic environment at
the surface for more than ISOLATED severe weather. Based on upstream
events, even the CHANCE of non-severe storms is diminishing with
time. If any strong and especially any severe weather occur, it
looks to be confined to coastal areas of the FL Panhandle/WRN Big
Bend and especially over the adjacent coastal waters where where
shear is greatest and where some storms may contain ROTATION
producing brief damaging winds. Cannot completely discount an
isolated TORNADO. Thunderstorms look to begin around 3AM EST Wrn
counties and ending around SUNRISE Ern most counties. SPC still has
area in a 15% chance of severe wind gusts and a 5% chance of
tornadoes.

One thing that is clear is that it will RAIN, so POPS remain at 100
percent across much of the area. Significant rains are not
anticipated, but it should be a good soaking rain with most areas
receiving between 0.75 and 1 inch by Wednesday, the bulk of which
should FALL prior to sunrise. Temperatures overnight will be quite
warm given the thick cloud cover. Increasing boundary layer winds
will keep FOG from becoming the problem experienced in recent
nights. The rain will end from west to east Wednesday morning,
followed by clearing skies and slightly drier AIR behind the cold
front. Temperatures will return to near average on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and SEAS will be on the increase rest of tonight
with a period of ADVISORY level conditions starting west to east.
These conditions should continue through Wednesday Afternoon before
diminishing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front will approach and begin to cross the area through the
NIGHT. Large expanse of light to moderate rain has been impacting
KECP...KTLH...and KVLD the past FEW hours with generally periods of
MVFR cigs/VIS. Appears this main area of rain will be pushing east
by the early morning hours, however anticipate another round of
showers and a few thunderstorms to move through associated with the
actual cold front. Therefore rain will be in the forecast through
the majority of the night for all terminals. Expect a gradual
lowering of the cigs through the overnight with widespread MVFR and
tempo IFR conditions after midnight. Cold front will cross KDHN and
KECP during the late night hours, and the remaining eastern
terminals during the first few daylight hours of Wednesday.
Anticipate a few hours of MVFR cigs post-frontal, followed by
conditions improving to VFR for the afternoon hours.