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Hey folks, just in case you have not heard, today is my last day on-air at WTVY News 4.

I’m going to the Dothan Area Botanical Gardens to be their Executive Director.

If you’ve never been to the Gardens, it’s a really great place! Here’s a link to their website: http://www.DABG.com.

Come by and see me sometime!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…
Surface data from early this morning show high pressure in place
across the southern portion of the region. A reinforcing cold front
is not far away, moving across the Mid South. At 2 am ET, this cold
front was just entering North Central Alabama and Eastern
Mississippi. This boundary will move through the region today
resulting in a brief increase in northwesterly winds. This will be a
dry cold front with no rain in the forecast today. Temperatures will
still warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region, which
is only a few degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]…
Little change from the previous fcst, as the SE U.S. will be
dominated by the Mean Upper Level Trough which will begin to flatten
out a bit by the end of the period. At the Sfc, High Pressure will
be the rule with another weak Cold Frontal passage on Sunday. This
front is expected to be dry for the Tri-State region as well, with
any isolated showers to our north expected to dissipate ahead of
the front. As for temperatures, tonight will be the greatest
concern, as the Ridge building into the region today will settle
in just to our NE tonight, with a piece of it building in right
overhead on Saturday. That said, still expect very light to near
calm NE winds overnight which should allow for good radiational
cooling. Lows should range from the mid to upper 20s over much of
the interior (tweaked TLH down to 26 degrees, with lows around 30
expected in downtown Tallahassee), with lower to mid 30s nearing
the coast. This should result in a long duration light freeze away
from the coast, with a few of the normally colder locations
possibly nearing a short duration Hard Freeze. Will leave the
current Freeze Watch as is, but did pull patchy frost from the
grids due to expected large T-Td spreads. Lows on Sunday morning
are expected to remain above freezing, except for a few spots
along the Suwannee River Valley. High Temps will continue to
gradually moderate, with mid to upper 60s expected by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]…
Mostly zonal flow will dominate on the southern periphery of
broad eastern U.S. troughing through the period. A weak impulse
will pass overhead late on Monday, however, dry air will limit the
impacts to passing high clouds with no chance for rain. A slightly
stronger mid/upper wave will approach towards the end of the
period. At this time, little to no rain is expected with this
disturbance either. Overall, the period will be dominated by dry
conditions and near or slightly above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 06Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
period. Northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected this
afternoon as a dry cold front moves through the region. Near calm
winds are expected tonight with clear skies.

&&

.MARINE…
With High Pressure remaining in control, with just a couple of dry
Cold Fronts moving through the Coastal Waters through Sunday, light
to moderate winds and seas are expected through the weekend. By
early next week, winds and seas will drop to very low levels for
this time of year, as the next High Pressure Ridge builds in and
remains overhead.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Dry conditions and high dispersions will support red flag conditions
in North Florida today. The required red flag criteria for Alabama
and Georgia will not be met today. Relative humidity values will be
even drier on Saturday with minimum values around 15 percent.
However, because winds will be lighter, red flag conditions are only
anticipated in a few counties in North Florida. A moistening trend
begins on Sunday when red flag potential comes to an end.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
Although there were a few minor rises on some area rivers from
Wednesday`s rainfall (mainly across northern and western portions of
the region), no significant rises in river levels are expected over
the next several days with a dry forecast.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1006 AM EST Thu Jan 31 2013

…Possible short duration light freeze tonight…
…Another freeze possible Friday night…

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Updated at 945 am EST-
The 12 UTC regional surface analysis showed the cold front that
moved through our forecast area last night was over South FL,
while a 1024 mb high pressure ridge (centered over LA) was
building east along the Gulf Coast. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a broad trough over much of the eastern CONUS, with
plenty of dry air throughout the atmospheric column. Based on our
12 UTC KTAE sounding and the latest NWP guidance, we expect high
temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 50s.

With the ridge building in quickly, surface winds will likely
become calm shortly after sunset. This will allow for rapid
cooling, and a light freeze is possible at our normally coldest
sites (inland, relatively “open” areas away from cities). Even for
those areas that don`t quite reach freezing, frost will be
possible. The one limiting factor (which could prevent a deeper
freeze) will be the potential for surface winds to increase
slightly shortly before dawn, ahead of a dry cold front just to
the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]…
High Temps both Friday and Saturday will be slightly below
climatology and generally range from the upper 50s NW to the mid
60s SE. On Friday night, however, we could see one of the coldest
nights of the entire Winter Season thus far, as the Sfc Ridge
behind the Dry Cold Front will be positioned right overhead of the
CWA. This will allow for nearly ideal conditions for Radiational
Cooling with clear skies and near calm winds. Low Temps could
bottom out in the middle 20s over much of the interior, which will
result in at least a long duration light freeze, and the
possibility of the first Hard Freeze of the season. Therefore, all
outdoor interests and those with sensitive vegetation should keep
abreast of the latest information from the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee.

&&

.Long Term [Sunday night through Thursday]…
Undated at 945 am EST-
Mostly zonal flow will dominate on the southern periphery of
broad eastern U.S. troughing through the period. A weak impulse
will pass overhead late on Monday, however, dry air will limit the
impacts to passing high clouds with no chance for rain. A slightly
stronger mid/upper wave will approach towards the end of the
period. At this time, little to no rain is expected with this
disturbance either. Overall, the period will be dominated by dry
conditions and near or slightly above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION [through 18 UTC Friday]…
Undated at 945 am EST-
Unlimited visibility and ceilings will prevail through the period.
Winds will be NW 5 to 10 KT this afternoon, light overnight, then
NW 5 to 10 KT again Friday. The only possible visibility
restriction could be caused by any large fire occurring near a
terminal, but currently we don`t see any “hot spots” on
satellite/radar imagery that would concern us.

&&

.MARINE…
Updated at 945 am EST-
Winds & seas were still solidly at advisory levels, but the latest
NWP guidance (including high resolution RAP and local 4km WRF) is
unanimous in having the winds fall below advisory criteria by
early afternoon. Thereafter, light to moderate offshore winds and
seas will dominate through Friday, with a period of cautionary
northeasterly winds expected on Friday night. Then, light winds
and low seas are anticipated for the upcoming weekend and
beginning of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Very dry conditions will overspread the region today and continue
into the weekend. Red flag conditions look like a near certainty
across much of North Florida today and possibly again on Friday.
Though RH values will be below 25 percent in Alabama and Georgia
today and on Friday, it appears as though the other required
criteria (winds and/or fuel moisture) will not be met. More moist
conditions will return by Sunday, putting an end to any red flag
concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
Despite a fairly widespread rainfall across the region on Wednesday
(with most areas receiving between 0.50″ and 2″ of rain, with the
highest amounts well to the N and W), only minor rises have been
observed on area rivers thus far. The only exception appears to be
the Choctawhatchee River, where the river may rise to near action
stage at Caryville during the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
432 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…
Active day is expected across the region today. Surface data from
early this morning show a frontal system moving eastward across the
Mid South with an organized squall line running out ahead of the
frontal zone. The airmass out ahead of this boundary is quite moist
and rather atypical for late January with dewpoints running in the
mid and upper 60s. But what is most impressive about this system is
the kinematic field. 500 mb analysis from 00 UTC shows a 110kt jet
moving through eastern Oklahoma. The lower level flow is equally
impressive with a 70kt measurement at 850mb from Little Rock at 00
UTC. Model guidance is in good agreement that this strong wind field
will translate eastward today as the strong trough shifts toward the
Atlantic Seaboard. Model guidance shows the low level 850 mb jet
ranging anywhere from 65kt to 75 kt just ahead of squall line this
afternoon across Southern Alabama and into Southwestern Georgia.
This strong wind field will easily support the potential for severe
weather. The only remaining question is how much instability this
system will have to work with as it moves eastward. Model guidance
shows a decent amount of instability (around 500 J/KG of SBCAPE) in
the afternoon, but this is maximized more across Southeast Alabama
and in the Florida Panhandle and diminishes considerably further
east into the Florida Big Bend and South Central Georgia. Thus it is
expected that the squall line will maintain itself as it moves into
the area later this afternoon but weaken with time while moving
eastward. Should the line remain well organized, the potential
exists for some significant wind damage across Southeast Alabama
where the combination of the strong wind field and instability is
likely to overlap. Even if the squall line weakens considerably,
with such a strong wind field in place, it will take very little to
bring severe-level winds to the surface. In fact, the environmental
flow out ahead of the line could produce winds gusting at times to
near 45kt this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]…
The strong Cold Front will push through the region tonight, with any
lingering showers and storms tapering off and ending from W to E
across the CWA. Much cooler and drier air will arrive in its wake on
breezy NW winds, with Low Temps falling into the Mid to Upper 30s
well to the NW with Lower to Mid 40s Elsewhere. High Pressure with
much cooler and drier air will continue for Thursday and Friday,
with a slight moderating trend by Friday afternoon. Also, a light
freeze may be possible for parts of the region on Thursday night,
but it may be very borderline in nature, and confined to the
interior of the FL Big Bend. With all of the Hazards currently in
effect today and the area still uncertain, will hold off on a Freeze
Watch for this package.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]…
The global models are in good agreement with their handling of the
large scale 500 mb height field, as they show a progressive pattern
through the period. For most of this time our weather will be
dominated by high pressure and continental airmasses, interrupted
briefly by cold fronts Saturday night/early Sunday, and next
Tuesday, though (Tuesday`s front may be have a little more moisture
to support at least a slight PoP). Daytime highs will be near
climatology (generally in the 60s). Because of the predominance of
dry air, lows will be a bit cooler than average (generally in the
30s).

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 06Z Thursday] Areas of IFR ceilings, occasionally dropping
to LIFR levels, will continue to affect the ECP/DHN terminals
through early this morning. Ceilings will continue to spread
eastward and impact ABY/TLH terminals before sunrise at MVFR levels.
As the day progresses, ceilings will likely lock in at MVFR levels
all sites. Strong southerly winds will also be a concern today with
sustained winds in the 25 to 30 kt range with gusts to 45kt at times
even away from convection. Showers and thunderstorms will move in
later this afternoon, approaching DHN around 20z and VLD by 00z.
Clearing is expected late with gusty northwest winds.

&&

.MARINE…
Winds and seas will increase quickly out of the south and southwest
today out ahead of a strong Cold Front. Sustained winds are expected
to reach 25 to 30 knots, but frequent gusts of 40 to 45 knots will
require a Gale Warning for much of today and into this evening.
Behind the Cold Front, sustained offshore winds will still support a
strong Small Craft Advisory, but the frequent gusts should subside
below Gale Force. By the end of the week and upcoming weekend, winds
and seas will return to light or light to moderate levels, below any
headline criteria, as high pressure builds in from the Northwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…No fire weather concerns are expected today, however
relative humidity values will drop to critical levels on Thursday
with red flag conditions possible across North Florida and perhaps
into Southeast Alabama. Given the uncertainty with ERC values in
Florida, will delay issuing a fire weather watch until later this
afternoon. Similarly dry conditions will continue into Friday before
a slight moistening trend begins on Saturday. The threat for red
flag conditions looks to end by Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
We expect widespread showers and thunderstorms Today, with storm
total rainfall ranging from just under 1.5 inches over SE AL to 0.5
inches or less over the SE FL Big Bend. This amount of rainfall
(with a very progressive Cold Front) is not expected to cause any
significant rises along area rivers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
955 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2013

…The slight risk for severe weather continues for tomorrow…

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…

Deep layer ridging continues to dominate the Tri-State region this
morning. With the stretching of the ridge with height, winds veer
from southeast at the surface, to southwest above 700mb. A thin
saturated layer just below the inversion has yielded a scattered
to broken cloud deck around 100kft. Expect these clouds to
continue their northeast movement through the day and only
gradually scatter. Most of the low cloud cover has and will remain
on the outskirts of the forecast area. Isentropic ascent along
the 295K surface has generated a few light showers this morning,
primarily offshore and west of Bay county. These showers will
slowly spread north along our western fringes today, bringing an
isolated threat for a sprinkle or two across the Panhandle and
southeast Alabama. Even though mid level clouds will only slowly
scatter today, deep layer ridging will still promote above average
warmth this afternoon. Upper 70s to near 80 degrees will be common
across inland locations, with lower 70s along the coast.

Tonight, elevated southerly flow will preclude any fog
development over land, however, low clouds are expected to overspread
the region and keep temperatures moderated in the low 60s for most
spots. Isentropic rain showers are expected to continue, and
perhaps become more numerous, primarily west of the Apalachicola
and Chattahoochee rivers. Sea fog, will be a possibility
overnight as southerly flow transports a moist/warm airmass over
the cooler shelf waters of the Bay. Some advection inland can be
expected, however, expect the inland penetration to be minimal.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]…

The short term period will continue to be focused on the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms associated with the next storm
system that will sweep through the local region on Wednesday. A
squall line will develop ahead of a strong cold front and move into
the western zones by late Wednesday morning spreading across the
remainder of the CWA in the afternoon and early evening. The
forecast area will reside in the right-entrance region of a strong
upper level jet streak exceeding 100 kt. The low level jet is
forecast to be in the 50-60 kt range and the 0-6 km shear values are
still forecast to be near 50 knots in the warm sector. The primary
severe threat continues to be straight line damaging wind gusts but
a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially for our Florida
Panhandle counties and SE Alabama.

By late Wednesday, the cold front should already be east of our FA
with surface high pressure and a much drier air filtering in
Thursday. Temperatures will be well above normal on Wednesday with
near or slightly below seasonal levels for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]…

An uneventful long term period is expected with surface high
pressure remaining the dominant feature locally. Guidance is in
good agreement on a dry airmass with near seasonal temperatures
through the period, and the official forecast made no significant
deviations from the guidance consensus.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 15Z Tuesday]…

Most sites have returned to VFR as of 15z this morning. Expect
KABY to return to VFR within the hour. Thereafter, scattered to
broken mid level clouds will persist through the day. Overnight,
MVFR, and eventually IFR ceilings will overspread the region.
Light showers will be possible at both KECP and KDHN through the
night. Tomorrow, a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will
pass from west to east across all terminals through the afternoon.
The threat for damaging winds at the surface exists for primarily
KDHN and KABY, with mostly rain expected for all other sites. Low
level winds will be very strong, with up to 50 knots expected
below 2kft for most sites at some point during the day.

&&

.MARINE…

Winds and seas will gradually increase to cautionary and then
advisory levels later today into Wednesday as they veer to the
south and southwest ahead of a strong cold front. Winds will then
remain elevated for a short time after the frontal passage
Wednesday night before diminishing below headline criteria by
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…

Red Flag conditions are not forecast through Wednesday as minimum
relative humidities are expected to be well above critical levels
throughout the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms will bring
wetting rains…gusty winds and high dispersion indices to the
forecast area ahead of a Wednesday cold frontal passage. Drier air
will arrive behind the front for Thursday through Saturday. Our FL
zones will need to be monitored for possible red flag conditions on
those days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…

The upcoming system on Wednesday is expected to be progressive and
bring a general half inch to inch of rain across the area. The
highest amounts are expected across portions of southeast Alabama
and adjacent southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. The
lowest amounts are expected across the southeast Big Bend.
Flooding problems are not currently expected.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
928 AM EST Mon Jan 28 2013

.NEAR TERM [Today]…
Updated 915am.
A 1033mb High is parked over the Carolina Piedmont this morning,
inducing light easterly flow across the forecast area. Overrunning
southerly and southwesterly flow above this surface layer is
helping to generate some low to mid-level cloudindess. While the
low-level flow is expected to veer more to the southeast this
afternoon and weakend the overrunning, there should still be
enough clouds to possibly dampen solar insolation a bit over the
Big Bend. Therefore, will trim back high temps a degree or two for
this region. Otherwise, no significant changes are planned this
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]…
The axis of a very deep trough will swing across the Four Corners
region Monday night into the southern plains Tuesday. During that
time the upper ridge over the eastern CONUS becomes further
amplified with a surface ridge centered off the southeast U.S.
coast. Low level onshore flow along with building heights will bring
very warm conditions to the Tri-state region with highs around 80
degrees most inland areas.

The upper trough advances into the nation`s mid-section Tuesday
night and Wednesday with the tail end of the associated cold front
pushing into the Lower Mississippi Valley and into our CWA. Short
term models continue to indicate a possible threat for severe
weather with this system on Wednesday with a squall line developing
ahead of the front. Models are in better agreement with the timing
of this system but still differ somewhat on it`s strength for our
CWA. One difference is the strength of the low level jet with the
GFS showing a range of 45-55 kts with the NAM and EURO solution at
55-60+ kts. Also, as of 06z Monday, SPC`s day 4 (Wednesday) outlook
keeps our FA out of the severe risk. Will continue to mention
possible severe threat in the hazardous weather outlook which
appears at this time to be mainly straight line winds but keep
severe wording out of zones for now. PoPs will be tapered mid range
chance west to slight east Tuesday night and then likely for most of
the Tri-state region on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]…
Once the front clears the area late on Wednesday, dry and seasonably
cool conditions will prevail in its wake with no significant weather
expected through the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Tuesday]…
Scattered IFR cigs should lift by late morning with VFR conditions
at all terminals. The low clouds are likely to return overnight
with IFR conditions possible at all terminals. Fog is also not out
of the question overnight. However, confidence is lower
considering the potential for low and mid clouds.

&&

.MARINE…
Updated 915am.
Patchy fog near the coastline should burn off by midday.
Otherwise, light east to southeast flow will continue over the
coastal waters through the afternoon. No significant changes
planned with the morning update.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
No red flag conditions are forecast through Wednesday as minimum
relative humidities are expected to be above critical levels
throughout the forecast area. Drier air will arrive behind a cold
front for Thursday through Saturday. Out FL zones will need to be
monitored for possible red flag conditions on those days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
The upcoming system on Wednesday is expected to be progressive and
bring a general half inch to inch of rain across the area. Flooding
problems are not currently expected.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2013

.NEAR TERM [through Tonight]…
Quiescent conditions near the center of a low-level anticyclone are
expected to persist tonight. As a weak cold front begins to approach
the northern part of the forecast area close to 12z, winds may
increase slightly in that area, but they should remain calm with a
fairly strong inversion over the southern half of our area. The
inversion could come into play over parts of the area given the
number of fires that are currently evident on satellite and radar.
Poor mixing with increasing near-surface RH could be sufficient to
lead to some localized reductions in visibility with a combination
of smoke and fog. This will be monitored closely during the evening
hours for possible inclusion of fog in the forecast, or localized
advisories depending on how things evolve.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]…
The airmass will continue to modify over the next few days as the
upper flow flattens and surface high pressure remains in place
over the region. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 60s for the
next two afternoons, with lows rising into the 40s Thursday night
and the 50s Friday night.

A weak front will approach the region late on Friday. However,
moisture return will be extremely limited and the upper energy
will remain well to the north, which will keep PoPs extremely
limited and rainfall amounts quite low.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]…
Guidance has continued to back off on the potential surge of
colder air for this weekend. Models now barely push the cold
front through the region, as the primary upper energy pushes
quickly off to the east. With continuing warming trend in the
guidance, have followed suit in the grids and keep temperatures at
or above normal through the forecast period. The next chance of
significant rain is not anticipated until Tuesday or Wednesday of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION [through 18z Thursday]…
Despite the potential for some cloud cover during the TAF period at
some of the terminals, the expectation is that any CIGS would be
VFR. The latest visible satellite and TLH radar shows numerous smoke
plumes from fires around the area, so there may be the potential for
a combination of smoke/haze and fog to reduce visibilities slightly
tonight at some of the terminals. This would most likely be in the
MVFR range, but confidence was not high enough to include in the
TAFs at this time.

&&

.MARINE…
High pressure will remain in place over the waters through early
Friday with light winds and minimal seas. A weak front will
approach Friday night and cross the waters on Saturday with a
modest increase in winds in its wake. Easterly flow will develop
by late in the weekend as high pressure builds north of the
region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Despite continued dry weather on Thursday, minimum RH should remain
above 35%, so red flag conditions are not expected – despite high
dispersions in Florida. Increasing moisture on Friday and Saturday
with a cold front will limit fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
No significant rainfall is expected through the end of the week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
511 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2013

…UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION…

.NEAR TERM [Today]…

The large scale longwave pattern during the predawn hours is
highlighted by a ridge along the Pacific Coast and a trough
dominating much of the rest of the continent, particularly east of
the Rockies. The western ridge continue to create a split flow
pattern with the southern branch of robust jet at base of trough
coming northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast
transporting a fair amount of cirrus across our area. At the
surface, low off mid-Atlc coast with reinforcing cold front SWD down
WRN Atlc then SWWD across N FL coast. Front noted by temp/dew points
/subtle wind comparison. i.e. just along front around 50/42/near
calm winds while over SE AL, mid to upper 40s/low to mid 30s/NW wind
5 to 8 mph. Dew points across Cntrl AL/GA running around 10 degrees
drier than same time yesterday and this will translate SWD into this
morning. In wake of front, as Alberta Clipper low exits EWD across
ERN Canada, 1030mb Canadian high centered over IA/MO. Locally
this translates to a reinforcement of cold arctic air riding on dry
NLY flow moving into SE region. This reflected in area model
soundings. i.e. 12z Tues GFS TAE with 0.28 PWAT and NLY flow to H7.

During today, Alberta low will move into Canadian Maritimes with
amplified troughing remaining east of Rockies and into WRN Atlc this
morning. Trough/low begins to lift this afternoon with local flow
becoming more zonal by tonight. Moisture will continue to be absent
from area, in fact PWAT remains below one-half inch thru 12z Thurs.
Front will push south of coast soon after sunrise. In its wake,
surface high will expand SEWD from MS Valley to across TN Valley and
then into SE region ushering in a colder and much drier airmass.
Inland dew points will drop to the upper teens to low 20s. Expect
decreasing high clouds with gradual clearing from N-S. Still even
with clouds filtering ample sunshine, cold air advection mixing
means that max temps will only reach from mid 50s north to mid 60s
SE Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]…

The local area will reside on the backside of the mid/upper
longwave trough. At the surface, high pressure will gradually
slide south across the Tri-State region, into the northern Gulf by
Thursday. The main forecast challenge through the short term will
be pegging overnight low temperatures and afternoon highs.

Tonight will be the coldest night of the week, with sub freezing
temperatures expected for a large portion of the area. Thus, a
freeze watch has been issued for areas likely to see temperatures
fall below freezing for more than 2 hours. Although the boundary
layer appears to remain fairly dry overnight, patchy frost will be
possible closer to dawn in locations across SE Alabama, north
Florida, and extreme southwest GA, where RH values are most
favorable.

Strong subsidence on the backside of the aforementioned trough
will is well agreed upon by most of the guidance, with a solid
inversion expected at or below 900 mb on Wednesday afternoon. This
will inhibit afternoon mixing, and thus keep temperatures
moderated. Expect temperatures around 60 degrees across our
Alabama and Georgia counties, with lower 60s expected across north
Florida.

Southwest flow will advect higher dewpoint air into the region
overnight Wednesday. This will limit how low temperatures can
fall, even with light winds and few clouds expected. Expect an
east/west gradient divided by the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee
rivers, with upper 30s east, and lower to mid 40s to the west.

By Thursday, above average afternoon temperatures will return and
more efficient mixing is expected. Warming 850 mb temperatures and
a more zonal upper flow regime will translate to nearly all
locations across the Tri-State area reaching the 70 degree mark.

No rain is expected through Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]…

The extended forecast period will be marked by a more amplified flow
pattern as a shortwave currently south of the Aleutian Islands in
the north Pacific digs southeast out of the Canadian prairies on
Thursday and Friday. Surface cyclogenesis initially occurs ahead of
the digging wave over the Mid-South and then develops more rapidly
along the east coast later Friday and Saturday – pushing a cold
front through the Gulf coast region. Generally the global models are
within 12 hours of each other on the timing of the front (centered
around 00z Saturday). However, they disagree on the strength of the
low-level cold air advection and how far south the surface high
pressure center gets. The 21.12z GFS is an outlier in this regard,
keeping the high center mostly north of the Ohio River and never
cooling 850mb temperatures below 5-6C in our area. However, the
21.12z runs of the UKMET, CMC, and ECMWF all show the high getting
much closer to the Gulf coast with 850mb temperatures dipping below
0C. More confidence lies in the latter solution at this time, which
would mean a chilly weekend.

&&

.AVIATION…[through 12z Wednesday]

VFR conditions will continue through the 24 hours. Expect only high
level cloudiness this morning becoming mostly clear during the day.
Winds will be light from the north to northeast then calm after
sunset.

&&

.MARINE…

Cautionary level winds will subside through the day as a cold
front moves further from the region and high pressure begins to
take over. Relatively light winds and calm seas are expected until
Friday when they will begin to respond to an approaching front.
This front could bring Advisory conditions to the northeast Gulf
by this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…

In the wake of a dry cold front…cooler and much drier air with
PWAT`s AOB 0.35 inches will overspread the region today and linger
into Wed. This combined with temps rising into the mid 50s to low
60s will enhance vertical mixing thru the day. This will induce
long durations of low RH everywhere across N FL today while
similar conditions favor low RH across all but the WRN portions of
FL on Wed. However, neither dispersion nor wind criteria will be
realized. Critical ERC values are expected both days across Leon and
Wakulla counties thus a red flag warning and fire wx watch are in
effect here for today and Wed respectively. Several other counties,
especially Washington and Bay have ERC`s approaching critical levels
and need to be monitored in case a warning or watch is necessary.
The air mass will begin to moisten Thurs and Friday as a front
approaches. In its wake, the air mass will begin to dry out during
the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…

Significant rainfall is not expected through the weekend. Thus,
river levels will remain steady as well.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
308 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…

Based on overnight obs, dropped min temps 1-2 degrees for this
morning.

The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by expansive H5
trough anchored from elongated vortex over Hudson Bay with axis into
Ern Conus and a ridge along west coast from Yukon to CA. Flow across
the SE region remains largely zonal with limited cirrus moving ewd
across mainly Srn portions of CWFA. At surface, one ridge of high
pressure extends Atlc across much of Gulf Coast and a second from
Cntrl Canada into Cntrl Plains across OH Valley. In between low
across St Lawrence Valley Canada with cold front down Wrn Atlc then
Swd to a low over SC the wwd to another low over AR. Locally this
translates to weak high pressure, light winds and mild temps south
of front.

During today, the trough will amplify and nudge ewd. This will drive
cold front Swd and thru our area during the aftn and into the Nrn
most Gulf of Mex by sundown. In its wake, mid continent high
pressure will expand ESE towards Gulf region. Some light fog may
linger past sunrise. With little lift and no dynamics, this will be
a dry front. Offshore winds will modestly increase in wake of front.
Strong Canadian high pressure will build in behind front but cold
air advection will initially lag so expect aftn high from upper 60s
north to low to mid 70s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]…

Winds will remain elevated overnight in the wake of the
aforementioned dry cold front. However, cold air advection will be
rather minimal by the time the front clears the Tri-State area.
Thus, have trended on the warmer side of the guidance envelope,
with low to mid 40s along the coast and across much of north
Florida. The coldest spots will be across southeast Alabama
and southern Georgia, where what is left of the CAA will drop
temps as low as the middle 30s.

On Tuesday, expect a much cooler afternoon than in recent days,
with highs in the middle to upper 50s across much of S.E. Alabama
and S. Georgia, and lower 60s across the Florida Panhandle. This
is warmer than most of the raw models would suggest, however, an
analysis of 850 mb temps would suggest that the warmer statistical
guidance is most likely the better solution in this case.

Tuesday night will be the coldest night of the week. The calm
center of high pressure will move closer to the Tri-State region,
though likely not move directly overhead until later in the
afternoon on Wednesday. Nonetheless, calm winds and clear skies
will promote optimal radiational cooling locally. Expect
temperatures near the 30 degree mark area wide, with the typically
cooler spots dipping into the upper 20s. Patchy frost may be
possible come Wednesday morning.

Wednesday`s forecast scenario will be similar to Tuesday, only
slightly warmer, with low to mid 60s expected area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]…

After a transitional period on Wednesday and Thursday, the mid and
upper level flow pattern is expected to amplify once again with a
high-amplitude trough evolving over the eastern CONUS by Friday
and Saturday. The 20.12z runs of the ECMWF and GFS differ slightly
on the timing of the cold front associated with the developing
cyclone, but there should be a good chance of rain sometime from
late Thursday into Friday. The surface high, and shallow cold air
mass, that settles into the Southeast region in the wake of the
front next weekend is projected to originate from far NW Canada.
At the very least this looks like a recipe for another widespread
light freeze, with a small chance for the first hard freeze of the
season depending on the eventual strength of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 08Z Monday]…

VFR conditions will remain the norm through the period, with the
exception of perhaps patchy fog/haze for a few hours around sunrise
this morning (mainly near KVLD).

&&

.MARINE…

A dry cold front will pass over our Gulf of Mexico waters tonight
through tomorrow. With it, an increase in winds to cautionary
levels is expected. Thereafter, winds will fall to below headline
criteria until the end of the week when another front is expected
to bring cautionary, and possibly advisory level, winds and seas to
the northeast Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…

A dry cold front will move south across the forecast area today. In
its wake…cooler and much drier air will overspread the region into
mid week. Later today inland humidities will drop to around 25
percent but critical ERC and dispersion levels are not expected.
However on Tuesday afternoon…min RH will plummet to around 20
percent and dispersions and ERC values will likely reach critical
levels across portions of north FL. Therefore a watch was issued for
these areas. Red flag conditions are likely again on Wednesday
before the airmass begins to moisten up.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…

Meaningful rainfall is not expected in or around local basins,
rivers, or streams. Thus, there are no flooding concerns through
the week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
733 AM EST Wed Jan 16 2013

…The end of our unusually warm weather is in site, with periods of
rain today into Thursday followed by much colder and drier air…

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Our Region will still be in the Warm Sector today, as the strong
Upper Level ridge to the east of the Bahamas will keep the eastward
progress of the developing shortwave over TX to a minimum for one
more day. However, the colder and drier air associated with the Sfc
Cold front is running a bit out ahead of the shortwave, and this is
causing areas of rain to develop over northern and western portions
of the region early this morning, and the PoPs will be significantly
higher further to the north and west throughout the day today. This
rainfall should keep Maximum Temps in the mid 60s to lower 70s to
the N and W, while we will see one more very warm day in the mid to
upper 70s (with a few lower 80s) off to the south and east. By
tonight, this shortwave will have cutoff from the flow over eastern
TX and western LA, before it starts to accelerate eastward. This
will bring increasing rain chances to the entire area tonight, with
significantly cooler air filtering in to the N and W. Lows temps
tonight will span a nearly 20 degree spread, ranging from around 40
over parts of SE AL, to near 60 across the eastern 1/3 of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]…
The best rain chances area-wide will be on Thursday morning as the
Upper Low and associated Sfc Cold front sweep through the region. In
fact, the 00 UTC Global models are in very good agreement with a
slightly faster solution than their 12 UTC counterparts, so we expect
decreasing rain chances during the afternoon (possibly even lower
than the current fcst if this trend continues), with no measurable
precip left by Thursday night. Also, with the much cooler air moving
in as well, temperatures are not expected to rise much from the
morning lows, with Highs only ranging from the mid to upper 40s over
much of SE AL to the lower to middle 60s over the SE FL Big Bend. It
will become quite breezy as well, with W-NW winds reaching 15 to 20
mph with higher gusts. This will set the stage for a mostly clear
and cold night for Thursday night into Friday morning, with low
temps near freezing. With Sfc winds remaining elevated along with
high soil moisture, believe a widespread light freeze is unlikely at
this time. Friday should be a mostly sunny and cool day, with Highs
ranging from the Mid 50s to the Lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through next Tuesday)…
The latest GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement in forecasting large
500mb height falls over the CONUS (east of the Rockies) early next
week, coupled with plenty of very cold arctic air at the surface.
Saturday through Monday our temperatures will be near average, with
lows in the 30s and highs in the 60s. By Monday night or early
Tuesday, however, an arctic cold front may pass through our forecast
area, setting up a 24-hour period of strong cold air advection. As
is often the case this far out, there are model differences
regarding the details of how cold it could get here, but we have
plenty of time to watch.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 12z Thursday] Low cigs across the warm sector are creating
IFR to LIFR conditions early this morning across most of the TAF
sites with KVLD near the eastern edge. Areas of rain are expected to
affect KDHN and KECP through the period, eventually expanding
eastward. An improvement to MVFR cigs is expected during the day
for most areas with a quick dropoff back to IFR around sunset. The
exception is KVLD, which is expected to improve to VFR during the
day.

&&

.MARINE… Winds will be light to moderate out of the South out
ahead of the Cold front today, before shifting to the Southwest then
West from West to East across the Coastal waters late tonight and
Thursday morning. These winds are expected to quickly ramp up to
strong Small Craft Advisory levels on Thursday (with possible Gale
Force gusts), with winds and seas remaining elevated well into
Friday. Offshore winds should finally drop below headline levels on
Friday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Abundant low level moisture is expected through Thursday with drier
air moving in behind a cold front on Friday. It now appears as
though relative humidity values will fall below 35 percent across
portions of northwest Florida on Friday afternoon. High dispersions
are also forecast for Friday afternoon, but ERC values are less than
20 over a large portion of the area so red flag conditions are
uncertain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
Despite the possibility of heavy rains upstream (well north and
northwest of our forecast area), the latest NHP guidance does not
show significant rises in our rivers this upcoming week. Over our
CWA, Storm Total Rainfall is expected to range from 0.25″ to 0.50″
over the SE half of the region, to between 1″ and 1.5″ over the NW
half.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
920 AM EST Tue Jan 15 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through this afternoon]…
Latest surface analysis shows the quasi-stationary front still
just to the west of our CWA. Weak waves will translate along the
boundary today bringing a chance of rain mainly to our western
zones. Max temps will be held down a bit over the extreme
northwest portion of our CWA with the thicker cloud cover and rain
chances. Otherwise, look for high temps to max out around 80 degrees
expect lower to mid 70s along the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Thursday]…
The mid-week weather will largely depend on the exact evolution of
the upper-level low that is projected to close off at the base of
a more amplified trough, and then eject east along the Gulf coast
states by Thursday. At start of the period (Tonight & Wednesday),
the mid-upper level flow pattern will feature a highly amplified
longwave trough with an axis extending from Michigan to central
Texas. Meanwhile, an upper level anticyclone will remain anchored
just to the east of the Bahamas – setting up broad and deep SW
flow across much of the Southeast US. As the “near term” portion
of the discussion alludes to, this means that the surface front
will be slow-moving. After a generally dry night tonight, the
front will gradually push into the area on Wednesday, allowing
chances for showers to spread east. Any rain showers through 06z
Thursday should be scattered and relatively light – PoPs mostly
40% or less in that time frame.

The mid-upper level low is expected to close off over Texas on
Wednesday, and eject east Wednesday Night and Thursday – at which
point more substantial height falls should commence across our
area. In response to the ejecting wave, the models are in good
agreement that surface cyclogenesis will occur somewhere in our
vicinity, with the resulting low moving well E/NE by Thursday
evening. However, there is still disagreement about the location
of the cyclogenesis, as well as the trajectory of the ejecting
upper level low. These details will make an impact on the
forecast, so there remains some uncertainty. However, the strength
of the ejecting wave and associated QG convergence fields ahead of
it argue for fairly widespread precipitation. Therefore, in
collaboration with surrounding WFOs, PoPs were raised to “likely”
category (60-70%) over the northwest half of our area from 06z
Thursday to 00z Friday. With widespread rain and cloud cover on
Thursday, it should be a cool breezy day with highs in the 50s in
many locations.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday night through Monday]…
LAST UPDATED: 235 am EST Monday Jan 14

A cooler airmass will move into the region in the wake of the
cold front. However, temperatures are only expected to fall back
to near seasonal norms. The cool surface high is expected to
become stretched east-west and centered just north of the region
moving into next weekend. This will result in a pretty healthy
easterly flow across the region, which will bring some modest
moisture return, and possibly some isolated showers for the
eastern half of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Wednesday]…
IFR cigs this morning should transition to VFR/MVFR conditions by
mid to late morning. Low cigs will return tonight for all
terminals, with conditions possibly reaching airport mins at KTLH
and KVLD.

&&

.MARINE…
South winds of 10-15 knots will continue in advance of the
developing low pressure system through Wednesday Night. As a cold
front sweeps through the coastal waters on Thursday, winds should
veer to the northwest and increase to advisory levels (20+ knots).
Elevated winds and seas should continue into Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Low level moisture will remain elevated across the region through
the end of the week, keeping fire weather concerns to a minimum.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
After several days of very light and scattered rain showers with
limited rainfall, more widespread rainfall is expected on
Thursday. However, total average QPF through that time is expected
to range from around 0.20″ in the eastern Florida Big Bend to
1.00″ over southeast Alabama. This should not be sufficient to
produce significant rises on area rivers.

Be sure your speakers are on… Enjoy!

010812Ala

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 AM EST Tue Jan 8 2013

.NEAR TERM [Today]…
The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed a ridge along the
Piedmont and a quasi-stationary, diffuse frontal system from off the
TX coast through South FL. The latest NWP guidance indicates the
western portion of this front will intensify and lift northward as a
warm front on Wednesday. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a
split flow pattern over the CONUS, with a closed low in northwest
Mexico in the southern stream, and building 500 mb heights over the
Southeast. The 00 UTC KTAE sounding showed ample moisture between
850 and 600 mb.

Although the latest global models don`t show any Q-G forcing in
our region until tonight (and even then it`s rather weak), the
consensus of Convection Allowing Models (CAM) indicate a chance
of light rain today. The MOS from the large scale models have a
PoP of 10% or less. It`s not entirely clear what forcing will
trigger the shallow moist convection shown in the CAM, but it could
be the advancing (but weak) warm front to our south. Given the
fact that there was enough deep layer moisture to support some
light showers Monday evening (despite relatively weak forcing), we
took and average of the CAM PoP and MOS PoP, giving our forecast
area a PoP ranging from 20 to 30%. QPF values are likely to be
less than 0.10 inches.

The GFS/NAM/ECMWF MOS consensus appears quite warm for today,
especially in the FL Big Bend (with highs in the mid to upper 70s).
Monday was a good example of how MOS tends to have a warm bias
during these “cool wedge” scenarios, and we think with all the
moisture aloft (i.e. cloud cover) temperatures will still be a
little cooler than MOS. Our high temperatures forecast is a
compromise between a cloudy-and-cool scenario like Monday, and a day
where there is enough insolation for strong mixing and highs
approaching 80 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]…
There is good agreement among the latest models in the continuation
of building 500 mb heights over the Southeast. This will effectively
block any major storm systems in the southern stream from directly
impacting our region- leaving us with just fringe effects. The
PoP will range from 10 to 30% as a weak warm front lifts north of
our region Wednesday and Thursday. Despite the building 500 mb heights,
the models are showing plenty of mid to upper layer moisture, so
there will be periods of considerable cloudiness. As is usually
the case during the winter, when it`s unusually warm here, there
is a chance of dense fog. The expectation of morning fog and
daytime clouds lead us to undercut the MOS consensus high
temperatures by a few degrees. Despite this, temperatures will be
well above average, even during the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]…
Not much change to the previous thinking this model cycle. The big
story remains the strong ridge in place across Southern Florida that
will prevent a series of weather systems from moving into much of
our forecast area. A decaying frontal system will be across the
western portion of the area at the start of the period. This front
will dissipate by Saturday as the ridge strengthens. The next
frontal system on Sunday night into Monday may make a little more
progress eastward but is still anticipated to stall by Tuesday. Rain
chances will be on the low side but greatest in the northwestern
zones as these areas will be closest to the series of stalling
frontal boundaries.

Unseasonably warm temperatures will be the primary story through the
long term period. Max temperatures could possibly flirt with 80
degrees on Friday and Saturday with lows in the mid and upper 50s
being common throughout the period. This is effectively 10 to 15
degrees above climatology for Mid January. Even though this will be
quite warm, this won`t be record warmth as record highs for mid
January at Tallahassee range from 81 to 83 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION [through 06z Wednesday]…
MVFR ceilings will advance northward early this morning out of the
Gulf of Mexico and impact the terminals starting around 08z.
Expect a period of MVFR ceilings to continue through mid morning
at all sites before some improvement at TLH/VLD/ABY in the
afternoon hours. With a warm frontal zone being near the area on
Tuesday night, expect more widespread restrictions, possibly into
the IFR category.

&&

.MARINE…
Winds will be at exercise caution levels early this morning,
followed by a brief weakening of the winds this afternoon, before
they pick up again to exercise caution levels tonight. In fact,
winds and seas are likely to remain at moderate levels through
Thursday, especially across our western marine zones.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
The moistening trend will begin today with relative humidity values
remaining well above critical levels. No fire weather concerns are
anticipated through the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
Given the low PoP over the next few days, rivers are expected to
remain below action stage.

105_humphrey-bogart-style-icon

What do you think??

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
532 AM EST Mon Jan 7 2013

.NEAR TERM [Today]…
The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed a weak frontal wave
propagating eastward across the southeast Gulf of Mexico, and a
1030 mb high over southern IN. Local radars showed patches of light
rain over our Gulf coastal waters, but any moderate rain was well
south and east of our forecast area. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed split flow over the CONUS, with a closed southern stream
low over southern CA, a ridge over the southern Plains, and a trough
translating eastward over the mid Atlantic states.

Any sprinkles early this morning over north FL will end shortly
after sunrise as large scale subsidence (and mid tropospheric
drying) develop over our region. Skies will partially clear over
most of the forecast area, but high level clouds are likely to
remain over the Cross City area. With limited mixing and fairly low
sun angle, highs will only reach the lower 60s (except mid 60s Cross
City), which is near average for this time of the year.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]…
500 mb heights are forecast rise about 100 meters over much of our
forecast area between now and Wednesday. At the surface, the high
pressure system currently centered over southern IN will move east
off the mid Atlantic coast by Wednesday, providing our region with
east winds Tuesday and Wednesday. There is good agreement among the
global models in warm frontogenesis over the Gulf Coast states
Tuesday night and Wednesday, but it appears that most of the Q-G
forcing, instability, and deep layer moisture will be a bit to our
west and northwest. This is where the higher rain chances will be.
Our current PoP is only in the 20-30% range for our northwest zones.
With the rising heights comes warmer temperatures, as we expect high
temperatures in the mid 60s (FL Panhandle, GA, & AL) to mid 70s (FL
Big Bend) Tuesday, and in the lower 70s (GA & AL) to mid to upper
70s (FL) on Wednesday. Lows will be in the 40s Tuesday, and well
into the 50s Wednesday. Wednesday`s temperatures will generally be
10 to 20 degrees above average (low and high
temperatures).

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]…
The long term period begins with a large mid level ridge in place
just off the Florida East Coast and a strong upper low across the
Rio Grande Valley. This upper low will eject northeastward into the
western Great Lakes by Friday as the ridge strengthens its position
across Southern Florida. This results in a stalling frontal boundary
to our west early in the period with minimal rain chances. The next
substantive system approaches on Sunday and may indeed get into our
western zones before stalling as it approaches the strong ridge
across Southern Florida. Overall, rain chances throughout the long
term period will remain on the low side.

With such a strong ridge and prolonged period of southerly flow in
place, the long term period is expected to feature temperatures well
above climatology. Max temperatures could possibly flirt with 80
degrees late in the period with lows in the mid and upper 50s being
common. This is effectively 10 to 15 degrees above climatology for
Mid January. Even though this will be quite warm, this won`t be
record warmth as record highs for mid January at Tallahassee range
from 81 to 83 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12z Monday]…
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening.
Southerly flow will return low level moisture quickly tonight with
MVFR ceilings developing after midnight and spreading inland,
particularly at ECP/DHN. Ceilings could potentially be in the IFR
range toward the end of the TAF cycle at these sites as well.

&&

.MARINE…
The winds well offshore were nearing advisory levels as of
06 UTC, and the latest NWP guidance consensus suggests advisory
conditions are likely for our outer coastal waters until about mid
morning. We added the eastern portion of our outer coastal waters to
the advisory issued on Sunday, but cancelled the nearshore portion.
Winds and seas will gradually subside later today through
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Dry conditions will continue today, but relative humidity values
will stay above critical levels. Expect a moistening trend to begin
on Tuesday and continue through the week as low level southerly flow
becomes established.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
The recent rain “events” (which featured good area coverage but
relatively low amounts) have had no significant impacts on local
river stages. Given the low PoP over the next few days, rivers are
expected to remain below action stage.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
313 AM EST Thu Jan 3 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…
The long wave pattern this morning features a Rex block out west, a
positively tilted trough from eastern Canada southwestward to the
Southern Rockies, and a ridge over the Caribbean. Water vapor
imagery shows moisture feeding northeastward between the trough and
ridge. Surface analysis shows a stalled front draped across the
northern FL Peninsula stretching southwest across the Gulf of Mexico
to low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. Regional radars indicate a
shield of mainly light rain extending from the North Central Gulf
northeastward into the Carolinas.

Today`s forecast will be similar to yesterday`s with mainly cloudy
skies and areas of light rain. Rain chances are a bit higher than
yesterday as the right entrance region of the 170- to 190-kt 250-mb
jet extending from the Mid Mississippi Valley northeastward to
Southern New England moves closer to the region. This will increase
upper divergence and large scale lift over the southeastern states.
PoPs are in the categorical range across the western zones lowering
to likely farther the east. All of the clouds and rain will keep max
temps below normal, ranging from the lower 50s northwest to the
lower 60s in Dixie County.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]…
Cooler and drier air will move into tonight with slight to low rain
chances restricted to the FL Big Bend zones. A brief light freeze is
forecast for Coffee, Dale, Henry, Geneva, Quitman and Clay Counties.
Durations are expected to be insufficient to reach warning criteria,
except perhaps across northwest Coffee County. Feel this is too
marginal for a watch at this time and will let the day shift
evaluate the need for any warnings. Friday should be a dry day for
most of us with slight chance PoPs restricted to Dixie County. Max
temps will be just a degree or two shy of normal. Friday night and
Saturday will see near normal temps. This period will also see a
gradual increase in PoP from the south as isentropic ascent over the
stalled boundary to our south commences once again. By Saturday
afternoon, PoPs will range from 50 along the FL Big Bend coast to 20
over our northeast zones north of the VLD vicinity.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]…
An unsettled weather pattern will begin the period with abundant
moisture in place. An upper trough will approach Sunday and swing
through the region Sunday night scouring out the moisture to our
south and east. Deep layer ridging quickly builds in overhead along
with a very dry airmass Monday into Tuesday. Short term models show
a developing low pressure system over Texas Tuesday that moves into
the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday and then becomes vertically
stacked as it lifts northeastward into the Missouri Valley Thursday.
Showers and possible thunderstorms ahead of the associated cold
front should begin to spread into our western zones late Wednesday
sweeping across the remainder of our CWA Wednesday night and
Thursday. Too far out to be confident with this scenario, especially
on the timing so will just introduce slight PoP for now.
Temperatures will be near to above seasonal levels through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 08Z Thursday]…
Brief conditions of MVFR cigs/vsbys are possible through daybreak
especially during periods of light rain or drizzle. Otherwise,
VFR will prevail with cigs around 4-5kft. Rain should end around
midday today. Winds will be light from the northwest to northeast.

&&

.MARINE…
The gradient is expected to tighten across the marine area today
with exercise caution conditions overspreading the waters from west
to east. Winds will remain elevated through tonight before subsiding
below headline criteria on Friday and remaining 15 kt or less
through the weekend. Winds will then increase to cautionary levels
once again Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days, as
an unsettled pattern persists over the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce has crested below action stage and
other rivers across the northwestern HSA are receding. Rainfall over
the next couple of days is expected to be light enough to prevent
any significant rises on area rivers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…
The long wave pattern this morning features ridges over the FL
Peninsula and Caribbean and the Pacific NW, and a positively tilted
trough over the central U.S. A 180- to 200-kt upper jet was noted at
250 mb stretching from the TX Panhandle northeastward to Southern
New England. Surface analysis shows a slow moving cold front just
northwest of the forecast area stretching from SC southwest across
Central GA and Southern AL to near Pensacola. Radar shows a narrow
band of rain in the warm sector moving across our western zones with
mainly sprinkles and drizzle northwest of the front. Temperatures
are very mild across the area for this time of night and year. Most
reporting stations were in the mid 60s as of 07Z. The cold front
will work slowly southeastward across the forecast area this morning
and reach the Lower Suwannee River by early afternoon. Max temps
today have likely already been observed across most of the forecast
area. About the only area that will see temps rise higher this
afternoon will be the eastern FL Big Bend zones. Temps over the
northwest half of the forecast area will likely be in the 50s all
day. Forcing for ascent will be weak today. There is some subtle
isentropic upglide noted on the 300K surface and of course there
will be some lift force by the front itself. PoPs will be rather low
ranging from 20-40%, although skies will be overcast for much of the
day behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]…
The unsettled weather will continue through Thursday evening. As the
right entrance region of the upper jet approaches, we will see
somewhat more QG forcing and PoPs will rise accordingly. We are
looking at 40-60% for tonight. On Thursday, likely PoPs are forecast
for the southern half of the forecast area lowing to 30% for the
northern tier of counties north of and ABY-DHN line. Min temps
tonight will remain above normal with abundant cloud cover forecast
to continue. Thursday will be cloudy and chilly day. The clouds and
and rain will restrict max temps to the 50s in most area. Drier air
will move into the area overnight Thursday and this will allow skies
to clear and temps to drop into the 30s for all but the coastal
areas and Dixie County. Coffee and western Geneva Counties could dip
below freezing, but durations do not appear sufficient to warrant
any future watches/warnings at this time. Max temps Friday will rise
to within a degree or two of normal.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]…
The extended period begins with a brief dry period Friday night
through most of Saturday with deep layer ridging over the region.
Then, another disturbance lifts northeastward from the Gulf ahead of
a deepening upper trough crossing the central plains late Saturday.
Rain returns to the forecast and continues into early to midday
Sunday when the axis of the upper trough swings into the southeast
CONUS shunting the moisture to our south and east. The mid/upper
level flow quickly transitions to zonal on Monday followed by
ridging Tuesday through Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure and
a very dry airmass will be in place Monday through the remainder of
the period. Temps will be near to slightly above seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 08Z Wednesday]…
IFR ceilings will prevail at all TAF sites through daybreak along
with MVFR visibilities. Patchy light rain can be expected from time
to time throughout the forecast period as a cold front lingers
across the region. A prolonged period of at least MVFR ceilings are
expected through this afternoon even outside of rain areas.

&&

.MARINE…
Light to moderate onshore winds will shift to offshore as the cold
front passes today. The western waters could see exercise caution
conditions by late in the day. These conditions will spread to the
eastern waters on Thursday with winds then remaining elevated
through Friday. Winds will drop below headline criteria for the
weekend, but will return to cautionary levels Sunday night into
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days, as
an unsettled pattern persists over the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
No issues are expected through the period. Rainfall through the
weekend should be insufficient to produce any significant rises. In
fact many rivers across the northwestern HSA should be in recession.

2013beach

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
504 AM EST Tue Jan 1 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…

Zonal flow will continue aloft as a mid/upper level shortwave
shears out over the Mississippi Valley today. As the flattening
trough moves into the Mississippi Valley it will slowly push a
cold front into the Southeast. With the slow approach of the
front, we will likely not see any rain across the area. If showers
happen to occur, they should remain confined to our SE Alabama and
western Panhandle counties later this afternoon. The main forecast
concern for today will be the development and evolution of low
clouds through the first part of the day. A mix of low and high
clouds will dominate the morning hours, followed by mainly upper
level clouds to finish the afternoon. Temperatures should be able
to climb to the 70 degree mark for most locations today.

Tonight, a weak impulse tracked back to the western Gulf Coast
will merge with the dampening low/mid level trough and result in a
brief period of amplification locally. This should develop a wave
of low pressure along the quasi-stationary front that will
traverse the Southeast through the night, before weakening over
the western Atlantic. The wave will bring the front into the Tri-
State region overnight resulting in showers across the
northwestern part of our forecast area. Lows will remain mild, in
the middle to upper 50s for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]…

With little to no synoptic forcing expected on Wednesday the
aforementioned front will essentially be a stale boundary draped
across the local area. As a result, there will only be a slight
chance of rain for most spots through Wednesday afternoon. Ample
cloud cover will keep temperatures moderated in the lower 60s
south of the front, and possibly some 50s in the afternoon north
of the front.

Wednesday night, another weak southern stream impulse will combine
with favorable isentropic ascent and likely result in a rather
large rain shield spreading from southwest to northeast through
the day on Thursday. There is some uncertainty just how far north
the rain shield will extend, thus rainfall amounts remain highly
uncertain at this time. Should the plentiful rainfall occur far
enough north to favorably impact our region, event totals around an
inch to possible 2 inches in extreme cases, can be expected. On
the backside of the front (most of the area) high temps will climb
only to the middle and upper 50s. So any rain that falls will be a
rather cool rain.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through next Tuesday]…

The extended period will begin with the last in the series of weak
low pressure waves exiting to our east, with another Ridge of High
Pressure building in for a fair and cool Friday. The first half of
Saturday looks to be fair and cool at this time as well, but yet
another wave of low pressure may try to return from the Gulf of
Mexico for later on Sat, lasting into Sunday and possibly Monday as
well, with the best chances for rain over the southern portion of
the CWA. Due to the uncertainty of the situation and significant
differences between the 00 UTC GFS (which would call for fair and
dry conditions with a slow moderating trend Sun-Tue), and the
earlier 12 UTC ECMWF (which would likely keep more unsettled
conditions across the area), will await the arrival of the 00 UTC
Euro before making the final call. The new 00 UTC ECMWF is in, and
little has changed. Therefore, will keep PoPs in the fcst through
Sunday Night.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 10Z Tuesday]…

Fairly tricky Taf fcst for most of the current package, as there are
a few pockets of MVFR level Cigs sliding in underneath the quickly
expanding Cirrus Deck. Expect at least a short period of these Cigs
at TLH, ECP, and DHN, while MVFR level Vis will remain possible at
ABY and VLD, which are out ahead of the lower clouds. During the
daylight hours Today, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies (at VFR
levels), before MVFR level Cigs return to the terminals after sunset
as the next Low Pressure system approaches from the west. Any rain
that falls should be light, but fcst PoPs are high enough to
include Prob30s at DHN, ECP, and ABY.

&&

.MARINE…

During the unsettled weather pattern outlined above, there will be
on-and-off periods of cautionary conditions over our Gulf Coast
waters. Advisory conditions should hold off, except for a brief
period on Friday as high pressure quickly builds in over the
waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…

No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days, as
an unsettled pattern will take a foothold over the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…

Minor river rises are possible Wednesday through Friday depending
on the exact location of the rain shield. At best, 1 to 2 inches
are expected, with isolated higher amounts (likely to occur nearer
to the coast) reaching 3 inches.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
625 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2012

.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]…

After this morning`s light freeze (which was able to occur before
the thicker CI moved in from the west) comes to an end, temperatures
are finally expected to moderate back into the lower to middle 60s
this afternoon, with even a few upper 60s possible across the
southeast FL Big Bend. This will occur under filtered sunshine
through an increasing CI deck. For tonight, winds will veer around
to the SE then S, advecting in increasing low level moisture to go
along with the High Clouds, as the next week Sfc Low approaches from
the west. This should result in significantly milder low temps,
ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s, with a slight chance of
rain across the western 1/4 of the CWA late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]…

Rain chances will be gradually on the increase through the short
term period, as a series of weak low pressure waves approach the CWA
from the west. With the best chances for rain across the NW 1/3 of
the CWA by Tue aftn, High Temps will have have a chance to rebound
into the pleasant lower to middle 70s in many locations. Rain
chances will continue to be on the increase thereafter, but the
heaviest rain is expected to hold off until just after the short
term period. This will occur as the waves of low pressure shift
southward into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, allowing fairly strong
isentropic lift to set up across the region. Also, no thunderstorms
are expected at this time.

&&

.Long Term [Wednesday night through next Monday]…

The period starts with zonal flow aloft and a stationary front
draped across the Tri-State region. Rain driven by isentropic ascent
will increase in coverage and intensity beginning Wednesday night,
lasting through Thursday. Thursday night, a shortwave trough will
dive through the Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast by Friday
morning. The mid/upper level disturbance will act to push the once
stationary boundary through our region bringing and end to the rain.
High pressure will quickly build in and the remainder of the period
will likely remain dry. Temperatures will remain below average
during the afternoons to start the period, increasing to near or
slightly above average by Monday. Overnight lows will start off on
Wednesday night above average and gradually decrease to near average
by Friday night through Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION…

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals today, with the
possible exception of late afternoon MVFR ceilings at KECP. Tonight,
MVFR VFR conditions are expected at all terminals today, with the
possible exception of mid to late afternoon MVFR ceilings at KECP.
Tonight, MVFR ceilings will overspread all terminals from south to
north, as southerly flow from the Gulf transports moisture inland.

&&

.MARINE…

Winds and seas will continue to gradually diminish over the Coastal
Waters today, as they veer around to the southeast then south, in
response to the Sfc Ridge exiting to our east. Tonight and Tuesday,
winds will increase back to moderate levels out of the south
(possibly reaching cautionary levels for a time) as the pressure
gradient tightens between the Ridge to the East and the approaching
Low pressure system to the west. By late in the week, cautionary
level conditions are expected to return out of the northeast as the
next in the series of low pressure systems traverses off to our
south in the Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…

Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…

No flooding concerns are expected from the recent rainfall.
However, the next low pressure system, which is expected to
manifest itself into a series of weak waves which will traverse
along the Gulf Coast for much of the mid to late week period,
could tally upwards of 1 to 3 inches of rain across the CWA. This
may cause some additional low rises along area rivers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
617 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2012

…PATCHY FROST THIS EARLY MORNING…

…RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY…

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…
The large scale longwave pattern remains both progressive and
amplified. This is highlighted by ridging across extreme Ern Pacific
and West Coast, a broad positively tilted trough pivoting Ewd into
the Srn Plains and ridging over Ern states weakening from N-S.
At surface, main features are inverted trough over Ern TX starting
to develop a low just offshore with cold front SWWD and warm front
extending SEWD, and a high over Cntrl Appalachians with axis into SE
region.

Under calm winds, sunrise will see inland temps bottoming out in the
low to mid 30s with coldest values across the eastern most counties
where a few sites will drop into the upper 20s. higher dew points
will favor areas of frost until around 9 am est. During rest of
today, upper trough will move ENE. Inverted trough will continue to
develop into weak 1008mb surface low (cyclogenesis) that will
lift NEWD into LA and S/Cntrl MS by sundown. All this will shunt Ern
ridge/high further EWD towards Atlc. The combination of approaching
trough and lifting low will push cold front SEWD to LA/MS by
sundown. Locally, expect increasing mainly higher level clouds, WAA
and a more mild airmass. Dew points in the 30s this afternoon will
rise to the mid 40s inland and mid 50s at the coast by sundown. Will
go with 30-0% SW-NE pop gradient (rain mainly over Wrn waters).
Under veering winds, highs will warm to around 60 north to mid 60s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]…
For Tonight and Saturday, The progressive flow pattern will bring
the next rainmaker across the region. The surface low continues to
race NEWD to across our area tonight reaching the GA Atlc coast
before sunrise and Carolina coast in the morning. Deep and
increasing isentropic lift is maximized as warm front lifted NWD
over our area. Dew points will increase to around 60 at the coast
and these values will lift NWD thru the night. This will be followed
by the cold front early on Sat. Guidance shows upper trough lifting
newd across OH/TN Valleys thru Sat then lift across Great Lakes and
NE states with low opening up taking much of energy with it. Still,
some increase in upper level support/divergence and ML cape ahead of
trough. Trajectory of low focuses on SE third of local area and
especially the waters. Conversely, limited amount of land to be in
warm sector so pops/instability and chances of storms mainly over
water and Big Bend counties. Thus mainly a cool rain event north of
FL border and little overall concern for severe weather. QPF
low…generally about 1/2 inch for the event. Highest rainfall
amounts will be closest to low where locally heavy rain possible.
Will go with 70-80% N-S POP gradient tonight and 0-60% W-E POP
gradient on Saturday. Moderate west winds become breezy and gusty
northwest winds following the frontal passage. Highs top out at
upper 50s SE AL to mid-upper 60S SE Big Bend.

By Sat night, low well NE and cold front well SE of our region with
a strong and cold ridge of high pressure building SEWD allowing
strong CAA and clear skies to overspread area from NW-SE. A freeze
is possible, particularly in the northwest half of our forecast area
with lows from upper 20s north to lower to mid 30s south. This Ridge
is expected to strengthen and be situated right over the CWA on
Sunday. Expect highs only in the low 50s SE AL to upper 50s SE Big
Bend.

&&

Long Term [Sunday night through next Friday]…
The period begins in a rather benign zonal flow regime aloft, with a
trough departing the east coast, and another digging through the
Southwest. At the surface, high pressure is firmly in control. The
western trough will approach the local area with its attendant
surface low forecast to drag a cold front through the Tri-State area
Tuesday through Wednesday. Although there is some disagreement as to
how dynamic this system will be (locally), there is 100% agreement
at this time that instability will be too weak to even support
thunderstorm development. Wednesday night, another shortwave will
exit the Southern Plains and spark Gulf cyclogenesis along the
eventual stalled front discussed above. As the low rides along the
front, it will bring the local area another round of showers to end
the week.

Temperatures will remain near average to begin the period, then fall
to below average under the influence of the weather systems
mentioned above.

&&

.Aviation…

Updated 617 AM:

MVFR visibilities will continue at KVLD for another hour or so.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist through the day as mid-level
clouds move in ahead of the next weather system. Restrictions are
expected tomorrow night as clouds and rain pass over the Tri-State
region.

&&

.MARINE…
With the coming passage of the next cold front today into early
Sat, winds are expected to reach advisory levels over the
western waters early Saturday morning. Elevated wind speeds will
build eastward and remain around 20 to 25 knots until Sunday
afternoon. Waves will be correspondingly high during the weekend,
peaking around 8 feet for the offshore waters and decreasing Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather…
Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
No Flood Concerns expected from the recent rainfall. Widespread 2
to 3 inches of rain occurred over Southeast Alabama and portions
of Southwest Georgia on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. The
rain primarily occurred in the upper headwaters of the major
basins affecting the Pea and Choctawhatchee basins in Alabama,
Flint River basins in Georgia and the Chattahoochee River basin
along the Alabama-Georgia Border. 1 to 2 inches fell in the upper
Ochlockonee River basin in South Georgia.

Soils continue to moisten up with each passing system, and the
smaller creeks and streams are becoming more responsive with each
event. With this most recent event, there were minor rises on
smaller creeks and streams to near or slightly above action stage
in SE Alabama & SW Georgia. There is enough runoff to begin
generating minor rises downstream on the lower Choctawhatchee and
Ochlockonee Rivers. Flows on the Flint and Chattahoochee Rivers
are so low, that the runoff has had little impact on downstream
flows affecting the lower Flint River and discharges from
reservoirs on the Chattahoochee into the Apalachicola River.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
628 AM EST Thu Dec 27 2012

Updated Aviation Discussion.

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Quiet weather is shaping up for today as cool high pressure builds
into the area. Morning cloud cover should gradually erode during
the day with skies expected to be mostly clear areawide by
tonight. The cool airmass is expected to keep high temperatures
below average this afternoon.

Heading into tonight, as the surface ridge moves closer to the
area, decent radiational cooling conditions are expected. Lows are
expected to bottom out near freezing over a large portion of the
area away from the coast with the coldest readings over the
southeast big bend. Areas of frost look likely away from the coast
and are mentioned in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]…
The pattern is expected to remain progressive through the short
term with the next shortwave arriving late Friday into Saturday
morning. An area of low pressure is expected to develop near the
Gulf coast and move eastward through the area. Model agreement is
fairly good on the timing of this system, so PoPs were bumped up
to 70-80 percent on Friday night. A warm front is expected to
straddle the coast with the greatest surface based instability
remaining just offshore. However, there appears to be enough
elevated instability to keep some chances of thunder over most of
the area. In fact, if the 00z NAM instability forecast verifies,
then there could be some stronger storms over the coastal waters
with favorable shear for organized convection. It is worth keeping
an eye on this to make sure there doesn`t end up being a low end
threat for a stronger storm along the coastline, but right now the
threat seems limited.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through next Thursday]…
The period will begin with another Sfc Low exiting our region
quickly to the NE with a strong and cold Ridge of High Pressure
building in from the NW. This Ridge is expected to strengthen to
between 1030 and 1035mb and will be situated right over the CWA on
Sunday and Monday. This will set the stage for a possible short
duration light freeze on Sunday morning, with a likely long
duration light freeze (with a poss. Hard Freeze in some colder
locations) for Monday morning. Daytime highs on Sun. and Mon. will
also be held down several degrees below climo. For the remainder
of the period, however, an extended period of unsettled conditions
appears likely, as a series of weak waves of low pressure ride
E-NE along an elongated boundary. This boundary will be fairly
close to stationary over our CWA Mon. Night through Wed. Night, as
it will be essentially trapped between a strong Upper Ridge over
the SE Gulf of Mexico, and a weak Upper Trof swinging in from the
NW. At this time, this setup would favor periods of beneficial
rain over our area, with any Tstms appearing unlikely. It should
be noted, however, that the GFS and CMC are in good agreement with
this scenario (which we are fcsting), while the past 2 runs of the
ECMWF are much slower with moisture advection, holding off the
next batch of rain until Wed. Night and Thurs.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 12Z Friday] The expected MVFR level Cigs have been very
steady at DHN and ABY throughout the night and early morning
hours, while TLH and VLD have been going Sct at times. It did take
longer than expected for the Cigs to reach ECP (by 1030Z), but the
latest 11-3.9 micron Sat. Imagery shows they are likely to remain
Bkn-Ovc for about 2-3 more hours. DHN and ABY should also be the
last to scatter out and return to VFR (by 15Z), with all terminals
expected to remain at VFR levels for the rest of the period.

&&

MARINE…
Winds and seas will continue diminishing today as high pressure
builds south toward the marine area. The next storm system will
begin to develop across the Gulf on Friday evening with winds and
seas expected to reach advisory levels this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Although afternoon relative humidities will be noticeably lower
today and Friday, they are not expected to be low enough (and ERCs
will not be high enough) to cause any concerns. With another
wetting rainfall expected on Friday night and Saturday, no Red
Flag concerns are expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
Area rivers are expected to remain below flood stage for the next
several days. A general half inch to one inch of rain is expected on
Friday night into Saturday with the highest amounts expected to be
near the coast.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
649 AM EST Wed Dec 26 2012

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Much cooler and drier air will continue to build in behind the Cold
Front today on gusty W-NW winds, which are expected to be strong for
a Wind Advisory. These winds will gradually diminish during the
evening and overnight hours, which will allow low temps to drop to
between 30 and 35 degrees in many areas tonight. However, it is
still a bit too early to call whether any locations will meet the
durations required for a freeze warning, but this may require a
second look this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]…
High Pressure with fair and dry weather will dominate conditions
across the region on Thursday, but High Temps will still be below
normal in the mid to upper 50s. This dry weather will be short
lived, however, as a weak low pressure begins to develop off to our
west along the Gulf Coast, with the possibility of some light rain
returning to western parts of the area by Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through next Thursday]…
A progressive pattern will remain in place through the period with
the GFS and ECMWF agreeing that the next rain maker will move into
the area on Saturday. This system currently does not look nearly as
impressive in terms of convective potential as the system we are
dealing with now, and the official forecast only carries a slight
chance of thunder close to the coast. For the most part,
temperatures are expected to be within a few degrees of the seasonal
averages, except cooler than average Thursday night as weak high
pressure temporarily builds in from the north.

&&

.AVIATION
[Through 12z Thursday] Gusty westerly winds will be the main story
behind the cold front. Gusts around 25 knots are expected at all TAF
sites. Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail, but there
could be a brief window of MVFR cigs around KABY and KDHN.

&&

.MARINE…
The powerful squall line has moved through the western portion of
the Coastal Waters early this morning, and will be moving through
the eastern legs until an hour or two after sunrise. Gale Force
winds (and/or frequent gusts) with high seas will overtake the marine
area from west to east, and linger into early this afternoon. Once
the Gale has subsided, Small Craft Advisory conditions will linger
across the waters until late tonight. Lighter winds and lower seas
are expected by Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
There are no red flag concerns for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
The 1 to 2 inches of recent rainfall may cause some minor rises
along area rivers. However, due to low flows in area basins, no
significant rises are expected at this time.

Hope you’ll join us for an update on this afternoon’s severe weather!

122512threat

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
727 AM EST Tue Dec 25 2012

…An Enhanced “Slight Risk” for Severe Thunderstorms continues
across the region Today and Tonight…

.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]…
Little change in thinking from the previous fcst package, as the
Intense Upper Level Shortwave continues its rapid dive to the SE
over TX early this morning. This vigorous shortwave has quickly
become convectively active during the past several hours, mainly
well to the east of its Center. Some signs of Sfc Cyclogenesis are
already apparent near the TX Gulf Coast, and it is this Sfc Low
which is expected to rapidly deepen and race off to our NE today and
tonight. Although the bulk of the severe weather is anticipated to
be associated with the pre-frontal squall line (and possible
fore-running discreet Supercells) tonight as it sweeps eastward
through the region, we are still a bit concerned for a secondary
severe weather threat during the day today. If this occurs, it will
likely be over western portions of the CWA (especially SE AL) where
the potential for Tornadic Supercells associated with the initial
Warm Front cannot be discounted. In any event, it should be
noted that the Storm Prediction Center has placed a 10% prob. for
Tornadoes which extends into Coffee county, and just clips Dale,
Geneva, and Walton as well, with a more typical 5% prob. extending
eastward across much of the remainder of the CWA. That said, the
primary threat from this system is still expected to be straight
line wind damage, with the potential for gusts between 60 and 75 mph
in the stronger storms…especially to the west of the Apalachicola
and Chattahoochee Rivers. This will be possible due to the highly
sheared (mostly speed shear tonight) environment, and decent low
level instability which will allow the stronger storms to mix some
of these winds to the Sfc. Therefore, all interests in the Tri-State
area are urged to keep abreast of the latest forecasts and updates
from the National Weather Service in Tallahassee on this rapidly
evolving event.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]…
If the rapid fcst progression of this squall line continues to be
shown in the latest short term and hi-res model runs…this event
will be very close to ending in eastern portions of our CWA by 12-15
UTC on Wed. Another shot of cooler and drier air on gusty NW winds
will build into the region behind the Cold Front for mid week period.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday night through next Tuesday]…A progressive
pattern will remain in place through the period with the 25/00z GFS
and 25/00z ECMWF agreeing that the next rain maker will move into
the area on Saturday. This system currently does not look nearly as
impressive in terms of convective potential as the system we are
dealing with now, and the official forecast only carries a slight
chance of thunder close to the coast. For the most part,
temperatures are expected to be within a few degrees of the seasonal
averages, except cooler than average Thursday night as weak high
pressure temporarily builds in from the north.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 06z Wednesday] Areas of fog and low cigs will prevail
through sunrise with visibilities occasionally reaching airport
minimums. Fog is expected to dissipate quickly after sunrise with
breezy conditions developing during the afternoon hours. As a warm
front lifts northward, convection is expected to develop across the
area, some of which could be severe. Late in the period, a squall
line is expected to enter the region ahead of the cold front. This
may also be severe.

&&

.MARINE…Increasing onshore winds out ahead of a formative strong
low pressure system off to our west, will result in Small Craft
Advisory Conditions progressing from west to east across our Coastal
Waters this afternoon and evening. Then, as a very powerful squall
line develops out ahead of the approaching Cold Front tonight, Gale
Force winds (or frequent gusts) and seas will overtake the marine
area, with even stronger winds in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.
These Gale conditions will linger for a while out of the west behind
the Cold Front during the first half of Wednesday, before slightly
diminishing back to Advisory levels out of the northwest into
Wednesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
There are no red flag concerns for the next several days with
wetting rain on the way.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
Much of the region is expected to receive an additional 0.5 to 1.5
inches of rainfall during the next few days. This may cause some
minor rises along area rivers, but due to low flows in area basins,
no significant rises are expected at this time.

santaandMe

Santa stopped by the station on Christmas Eve during “Live at Lunch”… said I’d been a good boy this year!

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
517 AM EST Mon Dec 24 2012

…The Potential for a Significant Severe Weather Outbreak (with
Damaging Winds and Possible Tornadoes) exists across the Region from
later Christmas Day into Wednesday…with a higher end “Slight Risk
issued from the Storm Prediction Center…

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…A weak low pressure system,
developing over eastern AR and northern MS this morning, will head
E, then NE towards New England tonight. This system will help to
gradually evacuate much of the very dry air which had become
entrenched across our region over the weekend, and it will spread
scattered showers, and eventually some thunderstorms across the CWA
today. The best chances for rain will be across the NW third of the
region, where a few of the storms could produce some gusty winds.
This system will push a very weak front through the area tonight,
with only slight chance PoPs remaining. At the area beaches today,
increasing onshore flow will create a High Risk for Rip Currents
along the Panhandle Coast, with a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at
the Big Bend Beaches. A High Risk is expected at all of our beaches
that experience surf on Tuesday, and a High Surf Advisory will
likely be needed on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temps will be
warmer today with highs approaching 70 degrees in many locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]…After this weak low
pressure system moves through our region, a MUCH more potent Upper
Level Shortwave will begin its rapid approach from the NW. This
shortwave, which has just entered the Pacific Northwest early this
morning, will quickly dive southeastward to a position near northern
TX by Christmas morning. This Upper Low will continue to charge
eastward then northeastward through the short term period, spawning
a rapidly deepening Sfc Low which will head off to our NE later on
Christmas into at least the first half of Wednesday, eventually
sweeping a strong Cold Front through the region. This system will
produce a very highly sheared environment which will be conducive
for Severe Weather (mainly in the form of damaging wind gusts and
possible tornadoes). Although the “primary” threat for severe storms
will occur along the squall line itself on Tuesday Night into
Wednesday (where the “timing” may keep the greatest severe
probabilities just off to our west), we are still a bit concerned
for potential Discrete SuperCell development along the initial Warm
Frontal boundary, which will move through parts of the FL Panhandle
and Southeast AL on Tuesday Afternoon. It is this Warm Front (where
the low level winds will back to the E and SE) which could be the
focus of the greatest Tornadic threat. At this time, however, we
believe that the greatest threat will be just to the West of our CWA
Christmas Afternoon, but all interests are urged to keep abreast of
this rapidly developing situation and be prepared to take action if
needed.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday night through next Monday]…The significant
system in the short term will be exiting the area to at the start of
the long term. In its immediate wake, a drier and cooler airmass
will advect into the region. However, a progressive pattern is
forecast to continue with both the 24/00z GFS and 24/00z ECMWF
showing another system affecting the area late Friday night into
Saturday. Depending on the track of the low, some portions of the
area could see isolated convection, but this system currently does
not look as impressive as the one before it. Temperatures are
expected to moderate some by late in the week ahead of this system
and then cool again behind it.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 06z Tuesday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail
with southwest winds around 10 knots developing during the day with
gusts a bit higher. However, an increase in shower activity and
possibly some isolated convection is expected during the late
morning and afternoon hours as an upper level disturbance moves
through with the greatest chances around ABY, ECP, and DHN.

&&

.MARINE…Onshore winds and seas will be on the increase to
cautionary levels across the western legs of the coastal waters
today, and moderate levels to the east ahead of a weak approaching
frontal system. This front will stall north of the coastal waters
tonight as a much stronger low pressure system begins to develop off
to our west. South to Southwest winds ahead of this front will
quickly ramp up to strong Small Craft Advisory levels, as a squall
line of showers and and thunderstorms (some strong to severe),
pushes eastward across the marine area Tuesday Night and Wednesday.
Also, a period of Gale Force winds cannot be ruled out at this time,
before winds shift to the northwest and slowly subside. Much lighter
winds and lower seas are expected by late this week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Moist and unsettled conditions are expected through the middle of
the week as a strong storm system moves through the region. Drier
air will move in behind the front, but red flag conditions are not
currently expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…Much of the region is expected to receive between 1 and
2 inches of rainfall during the next few days (except around 0.5″ over
the SE FL Big Bend). This may cause some minor rises along area
rivers, but due to low flows in area basins, no significant rises
are expected at this time.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
638 AM EST Wed Dec 19 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Following a chilly and frosty start this morning, temperatures
will warm quickly into the 70s this afternoon as an upper ridge
moves overhead and sfc high pressure shifts east off the Florida
east coast. Return flow will develop quickly tonight over the
western zones ahead of an approaching upper level trought. This
should keep low temperatures in the lower to mid 50s over the
west, with mid to upper 40s to the east. At this time, it appears
that any shower activity should remain west of the forecast area
through sunrise on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]…
A strong upper trough will cross the Mississippi River on
Thursday, taking low pressure from the Oklahoma to the central
Great Lakes by Thursday evening. To the south, the associated cold
front will push east along the northern Gulf Coast, reaching the
western portion of the forecast area by midday Friday, and exiting
the area Friday evening. Expect to see a forced line of showers
and isolated thunderstorms associated with the front. Low-level
and deep layer shear will be quite favorable for severe storms
(0-1km shear 25-35 knots, 0-6km shear 45-50 knots). However, lack
of instability will be the primary limiting factor once again
with guidance suggesting sfc-based CAPE aob 500 j/kg. Threat for
significant severe weather event appears limited at this time.
However, given the strong shear and potent low-level jet, isolated
damaging wind gusts will be possible with the expected squall
line.

In the wake of the front, strong northwesterly flow will drive a
much cooler and drier airmass into the region. Highs on Friday are
likely to be around 20 degrees cooler than Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through next Wednesday]…
The extended period will begin (Friday Night) with a freeze
likely areawide. This would be the first notable freeze in nearly
a month, with the last event occurring on November 26th. Since
that time it has been fairly warm, with the average temperatures
at TLH averaging about 6.1 degrees above normal. CIPS analog
guidance suggests an 80-90% probability of a freeze over our area,
and MOS guidance is in good agreement with sub-32 degree
temperatures. The center of the surface high pressure is not
expected to build into the area until late Saturday, so there is
likely to be some slight wind until the pressure gradient relaxes.
Wind chills in the eastern half of the area could dip close to 20
degrees.

High pressure then controls the regional weather through the
weekend before another longwave trough amplifies over the CONUS
next week. There has not been much run-to-run continuity from the
operational runs of the global models, which is leading to
variable timing on frontal passage(s). For now we stuck close to
the ensemble means, with slowly increasing PoPs Monday Night to
Wednesday (Dec 24 – 26).

&&

.AVIATION [through 12z Thursday]…
Updated at: 638 am EST

VFR will prevail at all terminals through at least 06z, with only
some high cirrus and light winds. A surge of low-level moisture into
Alabama ahead of a cold front should produce some low clouds, and
perhaps some MVFR CIGS at DHN and ECP Thursday morning. For the most
part, this is expected to hold off until after 12z across most of
the area. However, MVFR CIGS were included at ECP 08-12z as they are
situated furthest west in the area along the Gulf coast.

&&

.MARINE…Light southeasterly flow today will increase tonight
ahead of an approaching cold front. Advisory level conditions are
expected over the western waters Thursday morning, spreading to
the eastern waters during the afternoon. Very strong northwesterly
flow will develop over the waters late Thursday and Thursday
night, with gale force gusts possible. Winds will drop back below
headline criteria Friday afternoon, with conditions expected to
continue to gradually improve through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Despite the continuation of a somewhat dry air mass today, red flag
criteria should not be met due to light winds, low dispersions, and
low ERCs. A frontal passage on Thursday, accompanied by some showers
and thunderstorms, will be followed by the arrival of a drier air
mass on Friday. With RH projected to fall close to 25% across the
entire area and breezy northwest winds, red flag conditions may be
possible across some portions of the area. The dry air may linger
into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
The next front is expected to bring a quarter to half inch of
additional rainfall on average on Thursday. We will see
additional minor rises on area rivers, but in no case will action
stages be achieved, except perhaps on the Kinchafoonee Creek at
Preston.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
615 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
A quiet near term period is expected as the cold front moves through
the region this morning. A sunny day is expected with high pressure
building in late in the day. Expect temperatures to warm into the
upper 60s to lower 70s across the region.

With high pressure building over the region tonight with a cold and
dry airmass in place, expect temperatures to drop quickly and thus
expect the potential for a light frost across much of the area.
Model guidance is generally in the mid 30s, but there is the
possibility a few isolated spots in the Southeast Florida Big Bend
could get down into the lower 30s just briefly. At this time,
freezing temperatures are not anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]…
With the fast flow pattern continuing, there will be little break
between the most recent system on Monday and the next system due to
arrive Thursday morning. Wednesday will be a transition day with
winds shifting to the south and bringing more moist air back to the
region. Temperatures will be warm for late December with highs
generally in the low to mid 70s.

Thursday…The next and slightly stronger frontal system is
predicted to move through the region. Model guidance has handled the
basics with this system quite well for the last few days. A high
amplitude trough is predicted to move quickly eastward across the
Central Plains into the Southern Appalachians on Thursday. This will
push a strong frontal system across the south with numerous showers
and thunderstorms out ahead of it.

The primary question with this system is the potential for severe
weather on Thursday. The kinematic fields appear stronger with this
system than the one on Monday but instability is even more in doubt.
Model guidance indicates the presence of a 45kt to 50kt 850 mb jet
and sufficient deep layer shear to lead to organized severe weather.
However, the models are split on the degree of instability that will
be present. There will only be about 12 to 18 hours of decent return
flow ahead of the system which may not be sufficient to fully
destabilize things on Thursday. The NAM indicates a narrow
corridor of instability right ahead of the front on Thursday while
the GFS keeps much of the instability offshore. While the
potential for severe weather is not zero, confidence still isn`t
high enough to include severe wording in the forecast just yet.
Nevertheless, will include gusty winds in the forecast for
Thursday afternoon as strong winds would be the primary threat.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Tuesday]…
The GFS & ECMWF remain in pretty good agreement, forecasting a
quick de- amplification of the 500 mb height pattern over the
CONUS this weekend, followed by significant re-amplification early
next week. Fair weather and slightly below-average temperatures
are expected behind Thursday`s cold front, with highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s Friday through Sunday, and the potential for
light freezes and/or frost Saturday & Sunday mornings. Increasing
moisture and warming temperatures are expected early next week, as
a warm front develops along the Gulf Coast. A slight chance of
rain will be introduced For Christmas due to the increasing Q-G
forcing and deep layer moisture.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Wednesday]…
“Patches” of low cigs (700-1k ft) and fog (1-5SM) will dissipate
quickly this morning as a dry cold front passes east across the
region, followed by unlimited vis & cigs through tonight. NW winds
of 6 to 10 KT are expected for much of today, becoming calm around
sunset.

&&

.MARINE…
Light winds and seas are anticipated today as high pressure builds
in from the west. Winds will begin to increase on Wednesday as
onshore flow strengthens ahead of an approaching frontal system.
Advisory conditions are anticipated Thursday night behind this
frontal system continuing into at least Friday evening. High
pressure will then build in once again over the Eastern Gulf by
Saturday evening with low winds and seas expected late in the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
The relative humidity will likely fall below the locally critical
35% level this afternoon and again on Wednesday, but other factors
like relatively low ERC values and wind speeds will prevent the need
for Red Flag Warnings. After a good chance of rain Thursday (when
another cold front passes through the area), cooler and drier air
will move into the region Friday and into the weekend, with at least
some potential for Red Flag conditions then.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Generally between one half and one inch of rain occurred with this
last frontal system, generating no meaningful rises on area rivers.
The next system on Thursday is expected to bring only a little
more rainfall, again causing little or no significant rises on
area rivers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
633 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Surface analysis from 03 UTC shows a complex pattern in place across
the Southeastern US and elsewhere across the Eastern United States.
A surface trough is in place from the South Carolina Mid State back
southwestward across Southwestern Georgia and out into the North
Central Gulf of Mexico. Across the Louisiana coastline this trough
is likely the initial signs of warm frontogenesis occurring in
response to a stronger more vigorous approaching upper wave. In the
wake of this surface trough, a cooler more stable airmass is
spreading into Southeast Alabama and Southwestern Georgia behind an
area of shower activity. Interestingly, model data is not really
picking up on this mesoscale feature and as a result serious doubt
exists about destabilization potential later this afternoon.
Needless to say, with such a complex pattern already analyzed at the
beginning of this shift, confidence in the eventual evolution of the
near term forecast is lower than normal.

Model guidance for today isn`t incredibly helpful either given the
complex pattern. The primary forcing mechanism for precipitation
today appears to be a series of shortwaves out ahead of the main
disturbance (which is still back over Texas). While most of the
models today do generate some rainfall during the 12z Mon to 00z
Tue time frame, they generally disagree on timing and intensity.

Current thinking is that the aforementioned cooler airmass that has
drifted in from the north will produce a stabilizing effect across
Southern Alabama and Southwestern Georgia for much of the day -
and later day convective activity even when the stronger wave
approaches will be more dependent on whether the early morning
cloud cover breaks out before the afternoon hours. The potential
for stronger more organized convection is better into the Florida
Panhandle, but the further south and east in Florida you go, the
shear becomes weaker and the dynamical forcing wanes. Thus, the
severe potential today seems limited and highly conditional. For
now, will indicate gusty winds in the grids for the 18z to 00z
time frame primarily in areas of likely pops, which is pretty much
the entire area except down into the Southeast Florida Big Bend.

The cold front will slowly move through the region this evening
and overnight putting an end to rain chances across the region.
The cooler air will lag this front into Tuesday with low
temperatures generally in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]…
Dry weather is expected in this period of the forecast as high
pressure builds over the region at the surface. While extremely
cold temperatures are not anticipated Tuesday night, there is the
potential for a light frost across the region with lows in the mid
30s. A brief warming trend will start on Wednesday with highs
warming back into the mid 70s out ahead of the next storm system
due to approach the area in the long term period of the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]…
For now anyway, the 00 UTC GFS and ECMWF runs have shown much better
run-to-run consistency and consistency with each other for this
model cycle. After a fairly amplified trough translates quickly
eastward across the eastern CONUS mid to late week, the 500 mb
height field will flatten considerably over the weekend.
Re-amplification will quickly take place early next week as a strong
ridge develops over the eastern CONUS.

The GFS & ECMWF are in remarkably good agreement in the timing and
strength of the next cold front passage, scheduled for Thursday.
This front will be accompanied by a good chance of rain, then
clearing skies and cooler weather Friday and into the weekend.
(There may even be a light freeze or at least some frost this
weekend, most likely Saturday morning). Temperatures will moderate
to near average levels Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12 UTC Tuesday]…
Updated at 633 am EST-
There will be periods of low cigs (IFR or lower) and MVFR fog at
KECP and KVLD until mid to late morning, when all terminals will be
at MVFR-VFR levels. A large area of RA with isolated TSRA will
translate slowly eastward today, affecting KDHN & KECP this morning
and early afternoon, KTLH & KABY by mid afternoon, and KVLD this
evening. The poorly defined cold front behind this rain band(s) will
be slow to “scour out” the moisture tonight”, and the GFS & NAM MOS
forecast low cigs and fog once again until around dawn Tuesday
morning. This forecast package isn`t quite that pessimistic yet, but
we may need to trend that way later today when we can see what the
surface obs are behind the rain area.

&&

.MARINE…
Southerly winds are expected this afternoon ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary. Winds will shift to westerly and
then offshore as the front moves through the marine area tonight.
Cautionary winds are possible for a brief time behind the front
but high pressure will move in quickly resulting in light winds
through Wednesday. Winds and seas will quickly build on Wednesday
night as the next storm system approaches the area. Advisory level
winds and seas are likely with this system Thursday through
Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
The next chance of relative humidity values falling to locally
critical levels is Tuesday afternoon, after a weak cold front passes
through. At this time it doesn`t appear that the other criteria
(i.e. ERC, LDSI, wind, etc.) will in place to warrant a Fire Weather
Watch.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Rainfall amounts are only expected to be between 0.25 and 0.75
inches with the storm system today. This will likely have little
or no impact on area rivers, which remain low.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
416 AM EST Fri Dec 14 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed a 1028 mb high pressure
system centered over northeast GA, helping to provide northeast
winds across our forecast area. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a ridge from Mobile to the lower Great Lakes, and a trough
over CA. A strong subsidence inversion was located at about the
940 mb level (roughly 2300 ft) at 00 UTC at Tallahassee, helping to
“lock in” the low clouds below. Little change in the inversion is
likely today given our proximity to the 500 mb ridge, so the clouds
will once again be problematic today. On the one hand, the cloud
layer is thin (1000 ft or less), which would argue for quick
dissipation after sunrise. On the other hand, the strong inversion
and low sun angle will limit mixing (and subsequent cloud
dissipation). Based on these competing factors, and the latest
consensus of NWP guidance, we expect the sun to finally break
through this afternoon. As is usually the case in these scenarios,
the various MOS are quite warm, with highs well in the 60s. If the
clouds don`t dissipate (which is possible), highs will remain in the
50s all day…just like Thursday. To account for this uncertainty we
adjusted our high temperature forecast down by about 5 degrees. If
it appears that the clouds are lifting by late morning or sooner,
the next shift will need to adjust our temperatures back toward the
warmer MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]…
The 500 mb flow pattern over the CONUS will be more progressive than
we`ve seen for a while, but the storm track will still be a bit far
to the north to significantly impact our region with significant
severe weather threats or arctic air outbreaks. The trough currently
over CA will quickly shear out to the northeast and buckle the
Southeast U.S. 500 mb ridge a bit on Saturday, but very weak Q-G
forcing and limited deep layer moisture will keep our PoP at 10% or
less. Our next chance of rain will begin Sunday as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. The PoP will range from 40% around
Dothan and Albany to less than 20% at Cross City. Temperatures will
be back to being above average, but not as warm as what we observed
leading up to this current “cool” snap. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 40s Saturday, and in the 50s Sunday. Highs will be in the
lower to mid 70s. Our high temperature forecast is a few degrees
cooler than the MOS consensus, as there is some question about how
long any fog/low clouds that develop overnight will linger into the
day (a problem we often have to address this time of year when
temperatures are warm).

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Friday]…
The period begins with a frontal system moving into the region.
While several prior model runs have indicated a more energetic
system, the latest GFS and Euro runs from 14/00z take the bulk of
the energy well to the north of the region. Nevertheless, moderately
fast mid level wind fields could support a strong storm or two on
Monday before the surface frontal boundary moves through the
forecast area. There is fairly good consistency here between the
available guidance so high end chance to likely pops will be used
into Monday.

By Tuesday afternoon high pressure will begin to build over the
region. While there will be a cool shot of air behind this system,
it certainly doesn`t appear to be terribly cold air. In fact, it may
be a challenge to even get temperatures Wednesday morning to drop
into the mid 30s. As the pattern across North America is expected to
remain quite fast, the weather pattern will shift from high pressure
on Wednesday and Thursday to the next storm system arriving by
Friday. There is a lot of uncertainty with the temperature forecast
Friday and beyond with the guidance flipping back and forth between
a more temperate frontal passage (this cycle) and an arctic blast
(last cycle). For now, will trend temperatures several degrees below
climo at the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Saturday]…
Extensive low ceilings that persisted over TLH/VLD on Thursday
have moved back in to all terminals producing at least MVFR
conditions and many areas of IFR level cigs. While this is a very
shallow saturated layer, expect the low clouds to last well
through the morning and possibly into the afternoon hours at
TLH/VLD where VFR conditions may not return until as late as 20z.
VFR conditions are anticipated thereafter with the potential for
some restrictions returning by sunrise on Saturday at VLD/TLH.

&&

.MARINE…
As of 06 UTC winds were in the 10-15 KT range, which is generally
where they will stay through the weekend. (Though the direction will
veer from northeast today to south by Sunday).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Relative humidity is expected to remain above critical levels
through at least Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Despite widespread rain amounts of about one half to one inch over
the eastern third of our forecast area, river stages remain well
below action stage. This is likely to continue at least through this
weekend.

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