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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
622 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2012

.UPDATE…Aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
The shortwave and surface low pressure system will continue to exit
to our east while deep layer ridging builds into the local region in
its wake. The forecast challenges for today will be sky cover and
max temps. Surface high pressure will ridge NE to SW from New
England to east Texas with the wedge setting up for us locally.
Under these conditions wrap around moisture on northerly winds get
trapped under the frontal inversion and low level clouds are slow to
erode or move out of our region. Thus, will go with a pessimistic
sky cover today. The exception may be areas west of a Dothan to
Panama City line where skies are currently clear. Clouds probably
won`t begin to erode or move east until mid to late afternoon so
will lean close to the cooler MAV temps. For tonight, skies should
clear along with diminishing winds to allow temps to drop into the
mid to upper 30s most inland areas with lower 40s along the coast
and Dixie county.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]…
Deep layer ridging firmly in place Friday with seasonal afternoon
temps and dry conditions. Temps won`t be as cold Friday night as
winds swing around to the east and mid to upper level clouds spread
in from the west ahead of the next low pressure system. Saturday
will be a day of transition as the upper ridge flattens and the
surface ridge weakens allowing a cold front to edge closer to our
CWA. Clouds will further increase throughout the CWA but only a
slight chance for rain across SE Alabama in the afternoon.
Temperatures will elevate above seasonal levels as winds shifting to
the southeast and south.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through next Thursday]…
We continue to see model to model and run to run inconsistencies
with respect to the evolution of the upper level flow pattern and
associated frontal systems through the mid/long range periods.
Confidence in this part of the forecast remains below average. We
generally used a blend of HPC guidance and gridded MOS for most
fields. Details will need to be resolved later, but the general
trend shows a retreating ridge at the start of the period which
brings another day of warm temps on Sunday. A frontal system will
approach from the west. Chance PoPs (30-50%) were used with
highest northwest. As short wave energy moves from the Southern
Plains out into the Mid South, a wave develops on the front and
highest PoPs (40-60%) are realized on Monday as the front moves
through. We generally followed the GFS solution after that with
high pressure building eastward along the Gulf Coast in the wake
of the front. Since this air mass is of Pacific origin, temps will
generally be close to average behind the cold front. The next
frontal system is progged to approach on Thursday.

It should be noted that the 12/12Z Euro was much less progressive
and showed a deepening trough with a massive coastal low bombing
along the Southeast U.S. coast on Tuesday. The latest 00Z Euro is
closer to our preferred solution, at least in terms of sensible
weather locally.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 12Z Friday]…
Little has changed in our thinking since the 06Z TAF issuance. DHN
and ECP are right on the edge of the low cloud deck and will be in
and out of it. We will begin the cycle with IFR ceilings at all
terminals. DHN and ECP will scatter out first during the morning,
followed by ABY in the afternoon. TLH and VLD will be last to
scatter and it could be as late as this evening. After that, VFR
is forecast for tonight.

&&

.MARINE…
Cautionary conditions over the coastal waters should drop below
these levels this afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens. Then,
we expect winds and seas to remain below headline criteria through
the weekend as winds gradually veer from northeast to southwest. A
cold front is forecast to pass through the local waters on Monday
with winds becoming offshore once again.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Relative humidity is expected to remain above critical levels
through much of the next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Despite many locations receiving 0.5-1.5 inches of rainfall across
the CWA during the past 2 days…no river rises of any
significance are expected at this time.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
639 AM EST TUE DEC 4 2012

.AVIATION…
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH VERY SHORT LIVED MVFR
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRINGING A MOIST…EASTERLY FLOW TO THE
REGION. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 208 AM EST TUE DEC 4 2012/

DISCUSSION…DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID LAYER RIDGE STRETCHING
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTH
FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THUS, THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTINUE WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE EAST WIND WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA WHICH IN TURN WILL RELAX THE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
AFTERNOON MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND MINIMUMS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL BE A NEED TO MAKE A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALL
KEYED IN ON A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FROM THE CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THIS IS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES IN THE MODELS
END WITH ALL THREE HAVING A DIFFERENCE IN OPINION AS TO WHAT THE
EFFECTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE WITH THIS FEATURE. SOME COOLING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE
GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND IT SHOWS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDER TO OCCUR EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE NAM
IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE KEEPING MOST OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WELL TO OUR EAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE ECMWF LIES IN BETWEEN
SHOWING MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DUE TO THESE
DISCREPANCIES, WILL INCREASE THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT WILL GO MUCH LOWER THAN THE MAV STAYING CLOSER TO THE
MET NUMBERS. ALSO, DO NOT PLAN TO ADD THUNDER AT THIS TIME BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN LATER SHIFTS AS THE MODELS COME
IN CLOSER AGREEMENT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH.

LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RETURN TO A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH A DRY PATTERN
ONCE AGAIN SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION.

MARINE…THE EAST WIND WILL SLOWLY BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LEADING TO
CALMER SEAS AND LESSER RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
RETURN TO A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW.

FIRE WEATHER…NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS AMPLE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAYING WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
902 AM EST Mon Dec 3 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Updated at 850 am EST-
The 12 UTC regional surface analysis showed a high pressure ridge
along the Piedmont to the FL Panhandle. Upper air data and vapor
imagery showed a fairly strong ridge over the Southeast, with very
dry air above a subsidence inversion at 800 mb (approx. 6,700 ft)
at Tallahassee. Widespread dense fog developed to our east early
this morning and spread almost to the Apalachicola River. Looking
at our window, this fog was very shallow and should dissipate
within the hour or so. The consensus of the latest Convection
Allowing Models (CAM) runs indicate enough boundary layer moisture
& instability to support shallow moist convection. In fact, there
were already some light showers/sprinkles around Cross City, which
is where the CAM output showed the highest PoP for today. We added
20% PoP to our eastern zones for today, but otherwise made no
changes to the early morning forecast package. Temperatures inland
will flirt with the 80 degree mark once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Wednesday]…
There is a stronger signal in the guidance for a larger area of
fog affecting the area late tonight with a better consensus
amongst the hi-resolution guidance and even the SREF coming on
board with higher probabilities over some areas. Therefore, the
official forecast went ahead and included areas of fog across the
entire area late tonight.

There has been little change in the weak system expected to affect
the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The consensus PoP from
the models was similar to the previous forecast, and the official
forecast shows 30-40% PoPs over the northwest tapering to 10-20%
over the southeast. Rainfall amounts are expected to be meager with
most areas that are lucky enough to receive any rain only picking
up around a tenth of an inch or less. Above average temperatures
are expected to continue, although Wednesday`s highs may be a few
degrees less than today and Tuesday simply due to increased cloud
cover.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]…
Still a very uneventful period with the above normal temps and
only a few periods with slight rain chances through the period.
Things may get a bit more interesting after the beginning of next
week, with the possibility of a more significant low pressure
system developing near the central Gulf Coast and moving
northeastward thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Tuesday]…
Updated at 850 am EST-
The areas of low cigs and dense fog will dissipate through late
morning, followed by unlimited vis and VFR cigs. Winds will be
southeast around 5 KT, with an onshore sea breeze this afternoon
at KECP. Tonight, a bit more return flow moisture is expected to
get into the mix, so all sites are expected to receive some
restrictions, but we are still most confident that the poorest
conditions will be at VLD again.

&&

.MARINE…
The high pressure ridge to our north will shift southward through
Tuesday, keeping winds and seas low. A weak cold front will pass
slowly southeastward through the coastal waters late Wednesday or
early Thursday, but this is expected to have little impact.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Despite the very warm afternoon temperatures during the next
several days, dewpoints will remain sufficiently high to keep
afternoon relative humidities safely away from Red Flag Levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
It is doubtful there will be any significant river rises with the
weak system on Wednesday given the low QPF amounts and current low
river stages.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 29 2012

.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]…
Updated at: 700 am EST

The dense FOG overnight developed just outside our area, but over
the past couple hours (09-11z), the STRATUS has expanded across our
area in the light east to southeast FLOW in a 0-1km layer with HIGH
RH. This poses some concerns for the forecast. The GOES combined fog
product suggests that the stratus is at least 400m thick in many
areas, and stratus layers can occasionally take awhile to erode in
the presence of a strong INVERSION. Therefore, we bumped up CLOUD
cover for the morning hours across much of the area. The forecast
high temperatures were nudged down only one degree, AS the model
guidance suggests the stratus should scatter out at some point.
However, the temperatures for the morning were cooled quite a bit
such that 16z (11am EST) values RANGE from about 50-55 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]…
A decrease in the 850mb temperatures in the easterly flow regime
should be balanced by deeper mixing on successive days to produce
a gradual warming trend on Friday and Saturday. We will remain
under the influence of the LOW-level RIDGE axis, so dry and SUNNY
weather looks to continue on those two days. The only exception
may be, again, over the coastal waters where perhaps an ISOLATED
SHOWER or two may develop. A mention of RAIN was not added to the
Coastal Waters Forecast at this time, however.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday NIGHT through next Thursday]…
A low-AMPLITUDE pattern is forecast to be in place to start the
extended period and continue into early next week across the CONUS.
This will keep the weather dry through early Tuesday. With heights
relatively high, temperatures will be above NORMAL, with highs in
the MID 70s and lows in the low 50s.

By Tuesday, a TROUGH of modest amplitude will move into the eastern
states and push a cold FRONT towards the northern gulf coast. This
front should provide a CHANCE of rain late Tuesday into Wednesday,
with a slightly cooler and drier airmass moving into the region for
late Wednesday into Thursday. The progressive nature of the upper
pattern should keep any significantly colder AIR well to the north.

&&

.AVIATION [through 06z Friday]…
Low CIGS, which persisted for most of Wednesday, have finally mostly
dissipated early this morning. However, guidance does indicate some
MVFR CIGS returning to KTLH by SUNRISE. Latest satellite imagery
showing some signs of this forecast bearing out. Elsewhere, MVFR
VISIBILITY possible through sunrise. Thereafter, VFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.MARINE…
Easterly flow will continue for the foreseeable future as the
general position of the surface high PRESSURE and ridge axis will
change very little over the next 3-5 days. Therefore, we should
continue to see overnight winds increase to around 15 knots or so
with periodic SCEC conditions, and winds decreasing to 10-15 knots
during the daytime hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Easterly flow over the next several days will keep HUMIDITY
values well above 35 percent for the entire region. No red flag
conditions are anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
A dry stretch of weather will keep river levels relatively similar
over the next FEW days, with no flooding expected.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
625 AM EST Wed Nov 28 2012

.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]…
Updated at: 515 am EST

The Dense FOG ADVISORY that was previously in effect for portions
of the area has been cancelled. Between 04z and 08z there were a
FAIR number of observations in SW Georgia that had visibilities
at 1/4SM or 1/2SM, but a recent increase in winds has caused
VISIBILITY to improve areawide. Despite a small CHANCE that a couple
of the observations could see visibility dip briefly in patchy fog
early this morning, the PROBABILITY no longer seems HIGH enough to
warrant an advisory.

A frontal INVERSION should keep the mixed layer relatively shallow
today, which will keep temperatures cooler than the +10 to +11C
850mb temperatures would suggest. In shallow CAA regimes just
after a cold FRONT passage, the morning temperatures tend to be
slower to increase than the typical DIURNAL curve. The TEMPERATURE
curve was nudged down in the morning to account for this. However,
with breaks of sun LIKELY to develop by afternoon we are still
expecting highs to get into the 60s just about everywhere.

For tonight, some MOS guidance is still indicating lows close to
freezing in our SE Alabama zones. However, it would take a very
strong inversion to produce lows of those values given the
temperature profile in the 925-850mb layer. That is not expected
to be the case, and so despite clear skies and lighter winds the
lows should mainly stay in the 37-42 degree RANGE. These types of
lows would also prevent FROST in most spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]…
A lingering LOW-level RIDGE of high PRESSURE along the Atlantic
seaboard will keep east to northeast FLOW in place across much of
the east coast. This pattern should prevent rapid modification of
the cooler AIR mass that will be in place. However, highs should
increase a couple degrees each day at the end of the work week
with mostly SUNNY skies and a deeper mixed layer each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday NIGHT through next Wednesday]…
Guidance is in good agreement that the flow across the CONUS will
continue to be fast and primarily zonal through early next week. The
primary JET and any associated disturbances are forecast to remain
well north of the forecast area through next Tuesday, before digging
southward by midweek and driving a cold front towards the Gulf
Coast. Before this TROUGH digs southward, expect an upper ridge to
develop over the gulf and nose northeast across the area.

The impact of this upper pattern will be for warmer than NORMAL
temperatures into early next week, with minimal RAIN chances. Expect
highs in the MID 70s with lows generally in the lower 50s. Rain
chances will be introduced for late Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of
the approaching cold front.

&&

.AVIATION [through 12z Thursday]…
Low CIGS & fog currently dominate the region with IFR conditions
ongoing at all terminals. Expect conditions to improve after
SUNRISE, with the fog burning off before cigs lift. VFR conditions
are anticipated by afternoon and will continue through tonight with
light north to northeast winds.

&&

.MARINE…
With the 4am CWF issuance, we plan to maintain the SCEC headline
across all but the far eastern nearshore zones (Apalachee Bay and
along Taylor and Dixie Counties) through mid-morning. The latest
buoy and tower observations continue to indicate winds around
15-16 knots over the bulk of the coastal waters, with a FEW gusts
to around 20 knots. A 0315z ASCAT pass also showed a sizable swath
of 15-20 KNOT winds, which matched well with RAP and local WRF
(which were used AS the basis for the updated WIND forecast in the
first 12 hours). Winds quickly veer to the east by tonight as high
pressure settles into the Southeast, setting up the typical surges
of easterly winds at night over the next few days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
A slightly drier airmass will filter into the region today in the
WAKE of a cold front. However, HUMIDITY values are not forecast to
REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH critical levels, and ERC values should remain below thresholds
following Tuesdays RAINFALL. By Thursday into the weekend, easterly
flow is forecast to bring in enough Atlantic MOISTURE to keep RH
values above critical levels. No Red Flag conditions are expected
through the end of the work week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Rainfall totals over the past 24 hours ranged from NIL or TRACE
amounts near the Suwannee River in the eastern Florida Big Bend,
to around an inch in southeast Alabama. These rain amounts are not
expected to cause any notable changes in the area rivers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2012

.NEAR TERM [through this afternoon]…
The upper FLOW along the northern Gulf coast will remain
primarily zonal today, with the nearest amplified SHORTWAVE
digging into the central plains. At the surface, HIGH PRESSURE
centered over south Georgia this morning, will slide east during
the day, allowing for some weak return flow west to develop by
this afternoon. MOISTURE will not be sufficient for any
PRECIPITATION today.

After a chilly start, with temperatures near freezing away from
the coast, the airmass should modify noticably this afternoon.
Expect to see high temperatures 5-7 degrees warmer than Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]…
By tonight, the aforementioned central plains shortwave is
forecast to dig southeastward and interact with a fast moving
shortwave embedded in the subtropical JET. A cold FRONT associated
with these features will push southeastward towards the region AS
well. The left-exit region of the subtropical jet and the right-
entrance region of the polar jet are forecast to align late Monday
NIGHT into Tuesday across the tri-state area, providing a boost in
upward velocities across the region.

Despite anemic LOW-level forcing with this system, the upper
forcing is expected to be strong enough to generate a broad area
of showers starting late Monday night across the western zones,
and spreading eastward into Tuesday afteroon. By late Tuesday
afternoon, the subtropical jet will push east of the forecast
area, rapidly diminishing the upper forcing, and bring the precip
to an end. The progressive nature of the pattern will limit
RAINFALL totals, with amounts of a quarter to half an inch.

The ensuing frontal passage will be rather meager, given the
rapid return to zonal upper flow. Therefore, temperatures on
Wednesday will be very close to seasonal norms.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]…
The extended forecast will feature a predominately zonal flow
across the continental US. The 500mb HEIGHT trend over the time
frame in question is approximately +50m, and the subtly building
RIDGE will favor warming temperatures. However, the low-level
ANTICYCLONE over the Southeast is LIKELY to anchor a cooler AIR
mass in place a bit longer, so the warming trend should be
gradual. By Monday, the GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 2m TEMPERATURE
departures over most of the CONUS are above NORMAL, including all
of the ensemble members over our area. With normal highs Monday
(Dec 3rd) in Tallahassee around 68 – this likely spells a stretch
of days with highs in the 70s at the end of the extended RANGE
forecast. Despite some sporadic light QPF from a FEW of the global
models, there is little continuity on timing or spatial extent
(plus an overall lack of forcing). Therefore, POPS were capped at
a silent 14% to produce a dry forecast.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Tuesday]…
Updated at: 630 am
Light winds and VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through
the duration of the TAF period. BKN-OVC skies are likely to develop
around SUNSET today, and ceilings should gradually lower from
10-15kft through 4-6kft by 12z Tuesday. Showers and the possibility
of some MVFR ceilings should mostly hold off until after 12z Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE…
Winds and SEAS will remain minimal through Tuesday as the
pressure GRADIENT remains weak. A cold front will cross the waters
late Tuesday night followed by an increase in offshore winds.
Winds will then shift to the northeast and east by the end of the
workweek. At this time, winds are forecast to remain below
headline criteria throughout the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
The driest air mass, and thus lowest afternoon minimum RH, today
will be found over the eastern half of the area. Winds will be
light and dispersions low, so the only areas that will likely see
red flag criteria MET would be Florida zones where the ERC is
forecast to be at least 35. This only appears to affect Leon and
Wakulla counties, where long durations of low relative HUMIDITY
are also expected. The existing Fire Weather WATCH for Bay and
Washington counties will be cancelled, as forecast RH is higher
than 35% now. Increasing moisture thereafter should limit fire
weather concerns for the remainder of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Rainfall expected with this week`s frontal system will not be
sufficient to produce significant river rises.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1019 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through This Afternoon]…
Area of STRATUS clouds remains in place across the central portion
of the region this morning and are only slowly eroding on the
edges AS heating continues. This deck will be slowest to thin in
the middle, which means areas along a line from TLH-ABY will
LIKELY stay CLOUDY well into the afternoon hours and as such
expect temperatures to remain only in the MID to upper 60s there.
An approaching upper disturbance will likely help generate a FEW
sprinkles at times across far Southeastern Alabama and into
Southwestern Georgia this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday NIGHT Through Thursday]…
Benign weather is expected starting tonight. An upper level
disturbance will move through the area on Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning with little fanfare other than a few passing
clouds. HIGH temperatures are expected to remain near the seasonal
average, and lows may dip a couple of degrees below NORMAL by
Wednesday night with mainly clear skies and a slightly drier
airmass in place.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]…
The next UPSTREAM TROUGH will be tracking across the Upper Midwest
approaching the Great Lakes at the start of the period. Short
wave energy in the base of the trough near the ArkLaTex will
dissipate as it moves eastward into Dixie even as the long wave
trough deepens across the eastern U.S. Lower levels will remain
dry. Therefore, even though a cold FRONT will cross the area
Friday, it is expected to be RAIN-free. TEMPS will remain mild
ahead of the front, but turn cooler for the weekend. Look for
highs 65 to 70 Saturday and Sunday with overnight lows dropping
back into the 30s. Early next week, another frontal system will be
organizing over the Southern High Plains. The GFS is quicker to
bring the system eastward than the 19/12Z Euro. With timing
uncertainties as they are, will go with LOW POPS from late Monday
into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 15Z Tuesday]…
[Through 12z Wednesday] A broken to OVERCAST stratus deck with
bases around 4000 FT is slowly eroding, but will impact most area
terminals for a few hours this morning before SCATTERING out by
this afternoon. Winds will be light out of the north.

&&

.MARINE…
Offshore FLOW will continue through the week and into the weekend.
Winds are expected to approach or briefly REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH cautionary levels
through the work week and then increase to solid cautionary levels
Friday night into Saturday across the offshore segments and
possibly portions of the near shore segments as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Red flag conditions are not expected today with relative HUMIDITY
values forecast to remain above critical levels. MIN RH is
forecast to dip just below 35 percent on Wednesday and Thursday
across portions of the FL Big Bend. DISPERSION indices are
forecast to be over 75 Wednesday afternoon, so a WATCH or WARNING
many need to be issued by the next shift for that day for portions
of the FL Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
With little or no RAINFALL expected during the next several days,
no significant river rises are anticipated.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
634 AM EST Mon Nov 19 2012

.UPDATE…Aviation section for 12Z TAF package.

&&

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…
The only real forecast issue today is the possibility of some
clouds rotating back into portions of the area AS LOW PRESSURE
continues to spin off the Atlantic coast. The greatest CLOUD cover
is expected to reside across northeastern portions of the area,
which will be closer to the upper level low and slightly higher
MOISTURE. This could act to hold temperatures down a couple of
degrees compared to other areas, with values generally ranging
from the upper 60s northeast to lower 70s southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]…
As the upper level low east of the area pulls away, skies are
expected to clear out area-wide, especially by Tuesday NIGHT. A
moisture starved upper level disturbance will pivot through the
area on Wednesday morning with little fanfare. HIGH pressure is
expected to be the dominant surface feature with temperatures near
the seasonal average.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through next Monday]…
The long wave TROUGH will be exiting the area to the east at the
start of the period followed by a short wave RIDGE on Thursday. A
short wave will sweep by well to our north on Friday and that will
be followed by a period of mainly zonal FLOW aloft through the
weekend. Surface high pressure will generally be in control
through this period. Therefore, benign weather is expected to
continue through the weekend with all POPS below 15 percent. MIN
temperatures will be a FEW degrees below NORMAL through the period
with highs near seasonal levels Thursday and Friday before
dropping below normal for the weekend. By Monday, return flow will
commence as high pressure moves east. A frontal system will be
moving into the Lower MS Valley and slight CHANCE PoPs are
included for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 12Z Tuesday] We continued the trend of going less
pessimistic with the low STRATUS, which has remained just north
and east of the area all night. The latest NARRE and WRF time
HEIGHT cross sections indicate that MVFR ceilings are still
possible during the 12-18Z time period at ABY and VLD and this
appears to be supported by the last few satellite images. We also
included a period of MVFR VISIBILITY late tonight at these two
terminals. Elsewhere, the forecast is VFR.

&&

.MARINE…
Marginal cautionary winds have been occurring this morning beyond
20 NM offshore. These conditions are expected to continue through
the morning hours with slightly lower winds and SEAS closer to the
coast. A gradual decrease in winds and seas is expected later this
afternoon and tonight. Winds are expected to have a northerly
component through the period with brief bouts of cautionary
conditions possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days
with relative HUMIDITY values forecast to remain above critical
levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
With little or no RAINFALL expected during the next several days,
no significant river rises are anticipated.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
628 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2012

…Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion…

.SYNOPSIS
The long wave pattern across North America this morning features a
RIDGE out west and a TROUGH across the east. Water vapor imagery
indicates one short wave departing the southeastern U.S. AS it moves
off the NC coast while another is approaching from the northwest.
Surface analysis shows a weak LOW off the SC coast with sprawling
HIGH PRESSURE centered over IN and ridging southward to the Gulf of
Mexico. Northeast low level FLOW between the two pressure centered
continues to be advect plenty of MOISTURE into the region beneath a
strong INVERSION (based at 900 MB per the 00Z KTAE SOUNDING). There
is insufficient lift to produce even sprinkles at this time, but
skies remain OVERCAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM [Today]…
The low clouds will be very slow erode today. However, we do expect
some breaks by afternoon. Yesterday, TEMPS failed to make it out of
the 50s (for the first time at TLH since Feb 26), which was 14-18
degrees below NORMAL. Today we should see MID 60s if we get the
anticipated afternoon breaks. If these breaks fail to appear, we
could struggle to REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH 60 again. Mid 60s are still 7-9 degrees
below normal. POPS will be capped at silent 10.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Sunday]…
By tonight, the UPSTREAM short wave will be moving across AL and the
FL Panhandle. DPVA ahead of the system may provide just enough lift
to eek out a FEW sprinkles of light RAIN across our southeastern
zones. MIN temps will be near normal in those area, but a few
degrees below normal (lower to mid 40s) across the rest of the area.
The short wave will inch eastward on Saturday with mainly increased
cloudiness the result. A slight CHANCE POP will be maintained over
Dixie and Lafayette Counties and MAX temps will once again be below
normal, generally in the mid 60s. The upper support will be east of
the area by Saturday NIGHT as a weak upper low tries to cut off near
the GA coast. PoPs will be held to 10 or less and we will see some
more breaks in the CLOUD cover which will allow max temps to
moderate a few degrees on Sunday (upper 60s and lower 70s).

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday night through next Friday]…
Rather benign weather is expected for next week with a progressive
pattern in place. An upper level SHORTWAVE will pass through the
area around mid-week, but moisture returns looks rather anemic at
this time, so the official forecast left a mention of showers out of
the forecast with PoPs only around 10 percent. Overall, a dry week
appears to be shaping up with near seasonal temperatures.

&&

.MARINE…
With high pressure expected to remain situated north of the Gulf of
Mexico through much of the forecast period, winds will remain
primarily out of the northeast. The GRADIENT should be sufficient to
bring a return of exercise caution conditions by Saturday morning
which should persist through the weekend. Winds should remain
moderate, but just below headline criteria for Monday and then
further decrease by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 12z Saturday] MVFR to IFR cigs are expected to continue at
all of the TAF sites through the morning hours. By the afternoon,
the low cloud shield is expected to start eroding gradually from
west to east. This may allow some sites such as KDHN, KABY, and KECP
to break out into VFR conditions by the early to mid afternoon
hours. However, farther east around KTLH and KVLD, the low cigs are
expected to hold through much of the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
relative HUMIDITY values forecast to remain above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
With very little RAINFALL expected during the next several days, no
significant river rises are anticipated.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
546 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2012

.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]…
The main forecast challenge for the next 12 hours will be how
resilient the STRATUS deck that currently envelopes the entire area
will be. Based on water vapor loops from 05-07z, we appear to be
entering the region of NVA and SUBSIDENCE in the WAKE of a potent
MID-upper level PV ANOMALY / SHORTWAVE TROUGH. The changes AS a
result of this were demonstrated on the 00z JAN (Jackson, MS) and
OHX (Nashville, TN) soundings relative to the 12z soundings from
both locations. The 00z soundings showed lowering of the subsidence
INVERSION with considerable mid-level drying. Meanwhile, the 00z TAE
SOUNDING showed a deep saturated layer up to about 8000 FT (750mb)
with a subsidence inversion up around 650mb. As mid-level drying and
subsidence increase this morning across the area, the stratus layer
should gradually get thinned and eroded through mixing of drier
mid-level AIR. How quickly that process occurs will have notable
impacts on the TEMPERATURE forecast.

The consensus of model guidance appears to be that by mid-late
afternoon, enough mixing will occur to erode the clouds south and
west of a EUF-VLD line. MET MOS and ECMWF MOS seem to capture this
best, so they were used for the HIGH temperature forecast. This
should lead to highs in the 60s SW of the EUF-VLD line, and mid-50s
to the NE of that. RAIN showers and some patchy DRIZZLE should end
from west to east pretty quickly this morning as the aforementioned
shortwave departs the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday through Saturday]…
Friday looks to be a dry day with a bit more sunshine than we will
have seen the previous two days. Continued northeasterly FLOW below
800mb will anchor a cooler air mass in place across the area. In
fact, some of the models show 850mb temperatures cooling from
Thursday into Friday. This should result in another day with below
NORMAL temperatures. For Saturday, a digging shortwave trough should
become CUTOFF over the Southeastern US from the main branch of the
JET stream. The approaching mid-upper level wave may lead to the
slow development of a frontal wave from the coastal Carolinas into
the northeast Gulf of Mexico. This scenario would probably lead to
some SCATTERED showers, mainly over the far eastern parts of our
area, as well as some of our coastal waters.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday NIGHT through next Thursday]…
The large scale longwave pattern that commences the period is
highlighted by trough with axis just off West Coast, ridging over
the SRN Plains EWD THRU E/CNTRL gulf, then split flow over ERN most
CONUS with ridging over NRN states, and shortwaves DEEPENING trough
over SRN states and NE Gulf with cutoff LOW invcnty of local area
and dry NW/W flow overspreading local area. At surface, strong high
over Que with RIDGE axis SWWD across entire Gulf region.

During the rest of the period, as initial upper srn stream shortwave
exits EWD shunting trough offshore Sun into Sun night, weak upper
ridging or quasi-zonal flow takes hold as a drier airmass will
continue to overspread the region from NW-SE. At surface, ridge
holds while a low develops under upper trough off SE Coast by Sun.
This combination providing N/NE low level local flow with tightening
GRADIENT (so FOG unlikely but low stratus possible) and further
dries our local area. EURO and GFS continue to diverge by Sun night.
Both show drying trend TIL at least Tues but former more aggressive,
farther south and stronger with cutoff low and thus slower in moving
trough off ERN seaboard and in pulling surface low NEWD. Conversely,
GFS which reabsorbs low into open wave, begins and ends local
MOISTURE earlier. So, overall confidence in forecast not high and
will blend.

Models show next trough exiting Rockies on Mon, MS Valley on Tues
and into SE region on Wed.  Assocd weak upper level shortwave moving
EWD ahead of trough shifts zonal flow to weak cyclonic late Tues
into Wed,and helps erode local surface ridge with an increase in
clouds. This time GFS more bullish with another trough and surface
REFLECTION invcnty local region yielding next CHANCE of rain over NE
Gulf while EURO rather dry. Again until I see some consistency will
favor blend and show modest uptick in PRECIPITATION.

Forecast continues to be mostly dry one and will go with NIL POPS
thru Tues, then WDLY SCT Tues night and sct on Wed. MIN TEMPS will
hover around CLIMO SAT thru Mon nights before rising to slightly
above climo Tues and Wed nights. MAX temps to run several degrees
below normal to commence the period, then around climo for rest of
period. AVG inland min/max is 45/70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION [through 12 UTC Friday]…
Updated at 545 AM EST-
Although the disturbance responsible for the rain will pass the
area by this morning, moist NELY flow will make low clouds slow to
mix out thru the day. So OCNL drizzle will linger Ern areas and
persistent low ceilings will continue thru the day and for Ern
terminals past SUNSET. In general, skies will very slowly scatter
out to VFR from west to east so MVFR conds much of the day with LCL
IFR KVLD into this morning with rain clearing from west to east.
AFTR 06z, expect MVFR cigs to again redevelop except at KECP with
possible IFR towards SUNRISE at KVLD.

&&

.MARINE…
With surface high PRESSURE expected to dominate the weather pattern
over the eastern US through early next week, offshore flow is
expected to continue for the foreseeable future. From Friday night
through early Monday morning, there will be chances for SCEC winds
(or perhaps even borderline SC.Y winds well offshore). The strongest
winds will be with typical NOCTURNAL increases from about 03-12z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
HUMIDITY values are forecast to remain well above critical levels
through Friday, with no red flag conditions expected into the middle
of the upcoming work week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Gauge-adjusted QPE suggests that RAINFALL amounts across the area
were generally less than 0.10″ over the past 24 hours, with little
additional rainfall expected in the upcoming 24 hours. Therefore, no
significant river rises are expected.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
411 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2012

.NEAR TERM [through Tonight]…
Shallow northeasterly FLOW below a lingering frontal INVERSION (AS
sampled by surface observations and RADAR VWPs) continues across
the Southeast region. The moist northeast flow in the lowest 1km
has aided the PROPAGATION and development of a STRATUS layer into
our forecast area from coastal Georgia and South Carolina. The
vast majority of BUFR forecast soundings from the operational
forecast models, as well as individual SREF members, indicate that
the shallow, moist layer near the surface will persist through the
day as the flow in that SAME layer pivots to the ENE/E. In fact,
the SREF TEMPERATURE and dewpoint profiles below 2km show very
good agreement today, deviating mostly less than 2C from the
ENSEMBLE MEAN. Therefore, it is not surprising that the SREF and
NARRE ensemble probabilities of a CLOUD CEILING less than 3000 FT
at 18z today are over 80% over much of our forecast area. Putting
it all together, confidence has increased that we will see a
stratus layer persist through tonight, which should restrict the
DIURNAL temperature RANGE and keep highs today from the MID-50s
along our northern border, to the mid-60s in the I-10 corridor.

Meanwhile, increasing southerly flow just above the frontal
inversion in advance of a digging SHORTWAVE TROUGH should lead to
increasing isentropic ascent across the area today. In general,
guidance POPS have increased over the past several model runs.
The majority of the 4km WRF runs (local and NCEP) develop fairly
WIDESPREAD showers late in the morning and through the evening.
Thus, PoPs were trended up. In the weather GRIDS, the showers
were paired with patchy DRIZZLE wording north of I-10 today. Model
forecast soundings show some slight UVV coincident with the
saturated layer (stratus) in these areas. Overall, a cool and
CLOUDY day is expected with occasional light drizzle or showers
developing by late morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]…
The OUTLOOK” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>OUTLOOK for the end of the work week is for slightly cooler
than NORMAL temperatures to prevail, with drier weather and a bit
more sunshine. The northeast flow in the lowest 1km AGL” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>AGL appears
LIKELY to continue, and it could anchor a cooler LOW-level AIR
mass in the area. Differences arise in the forecast soundings,
with the GFS dissipating the frontal inversion and the NAM
maintaining it with the potential for low stratus to linger into
Friday. Although that is a possibility (and would lead to cooler
temperatures than are currently forecast), the uncertainties led
us to opt for a blended consensus at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday NIGHT through next Wednesday]…
The large scale longwave pattern that commences the period is
highlighted by trough with axis just off West Coast, and split flow
over East half of CONUS with ridging over NRN states, and troughing
over SRN states with low becoming CUTOFF from nrn branch of JET
stream over WRN KY. At surface, strong HIGH over NRN PA with RIDGE
axis SWWD across entire Gulf region.

During the rest of the period, pattern becomes highly amplified.
Several shortwave over upper Midwest dive SEWD and deepen trough
over SE region THRU the weekend. Then the EURO and GFS diverge with
former placing cutoff low near Gulf Coast and thus wetter solution
and latter shows low across CNTRL Appalachians and drier solution so
overall confidence regarding latter part of extended not high. For
now will blend but lean towards drier solution. So trough and assocd
low pivot into TN Valley early SAT then REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH NRN GA late Sat
providing a little upper MOISTURE, but its impact will be mainly
clouds and over our NRN counties. Then low slowly lifts offshore by
early Mon allowing strong ridging to expand EWD into Gulf region
keeping local area on west or dry side of trough with dry N/NE flow
aloft. Then trough gets nudged NEWD with quasi-zonal flow aloft into
Wed.  At surface high PRESSURE will move ENE and be reinforced over
New England with ridge holding firm thru Tues. At same time,
amplified trough near Cuba combines with Conus trough to induce
CYCLOGENESIS off Carolina Coast beginning Sat night. The combination
of strong New England high and Carolina low will reinforce offshore
flow over NE Gulf before low retreats NEWD allowing some Gulf
moisture return on Wed.

Forecast continues to be mostly dry one and will go with NIL POPS
except for WDLY SCT shwrs on Wed. MIN TEMPS will hover slightly
below CLIMO until rising to climo Tues night. With strong NLY flow
dominating extended period, expect MAX temps to run several degrees
below normal for mid-November. AVG inland min/max is 45/70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 09Z Wednesday]…
MVFR with OCNL IFR cigs will linger thru most of the period as
moist northeast flow persists and low stratus becomes trapped
under inversion. Isentropic lift will generate some showers or
more likely occasional drizzle or sprinkles around the area, with
CAM/WRF/local confidence tool all show best CHANCE at KABY, and
lesser chance at KDHN and KVLD mainly after 16z. For now will
include -DZ at KABY, elsewhere the chance did not appear quite
high enough to include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.MARINE…
The strong offshore flow appears to have peaked around 05-06z and
has since fallen to just below 15 knots. Therefore, the FEW hours
of SCEC conditions over most of the waters have generally abated,
and the headline has been removed with the most recent CWF
issuance. Offshore flow will continue through the entire CWF
period (through Sunday) with some SCEC conditions possible during
some of the overnight periods – particularly around the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Strong high pressure will build north of the region through
Thursday. this will yield persistent low clouds and a cooler and
more moist airmass over the region. This will maintain relative
humidities well above critical levels as well as low mixing heights
and dispersions. The airmass will begin to dry out on Friday with
red flag humidities possible over the weekend, especially across the
inland Panhandle.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Light RAIN or drizzle is expected over portions of the area over
the next 24 hours, but total RAINFALL is expected to be limited.
QPF should be less than 0.4 inches across the area, and therefore
no significant fluctuations in river levels are forecast.

Back when men were men.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
648 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2012

.NEAR TERM [Today]…
LOW level MOISTURE has increased across the region overnight.
However increasing clouds with the approaching system has killed
chances of FOG so will update to drop fog from GRIDS.

The large scale longwave pattern remains highly amplified yet
progressive with ridging over WRN most states, troughing EWD to
ERN seaboard and ridging over extreme Wrn Atlc. TROUGH axis from
524dm low over N Dakota/Canadian border with axis down Ern Great
Plains. At surface, HIGH gradually retreating Ewd along Atlc
seaboard but still ridging strongly SWWD from offshore New England
to the Ern Gulf of MEX maintaining moderate ELY winds below
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION across local area. A cold FRONT is crossing
the MS River accompanied by showers and ISOLATED thunderstorms.
However, much of the activity is post-frontal and the CONVECTION
has been weakening considerably overnight.

During the next 24hrs, the upper trough will gradually lose
AMPLITUDE with the SRN end flattening AS primary SHORTWAVE helps
lift trough and most of assocd DYNAMICS/lift E/NE towards the MS
Valley today and OH Valley/Great Lakes region THRU tonight. Still,
this will essentially end any lingering influence of Ern RIDGE. All
this will serve to drive cold front SEWD albeit in a weakened and
slower form. Front moves across WRN TN/MS around SUNRISE then across
local region W-E during the EVE exiting SE Big Bend before
sunrise Tues. The tight GRADIENT of recent days will slacken with
the VEERING winds assocd with the approach of the front.

The onset of RAIN will be slow in coming with much of it along and
just behind the front as STRATIFORM rain with a rather sharp NW-SE
POP gradient. Models agree in a gradual weakening of rain band as
main HEIGHT falls lift more NEWD yielding increasingly thinning
moisture axis. In fact, in spite of forecasted nearly unidirectional
WIND profiles near the front, thermodynamic environment is
unimpressive and the shallow post-frontal nature of the
PRECIPITATION and lack of UPSTREAM LIGHTNING translate to limited
TSTM potential. Latest 21Z RAP13 shows surface CAPE restricted to
wrn waters and adjacent coastlines, and even here, BRN only 5,
BRN SHEAR only 25 m/s, 0-6 km shear only 30 and 0-3km SRH only about
100 m/s. This reflected in local confidence tool/CAM guidance which
show essentially zero CHANCE of THUNDER over land. The best rain
chances and any tstms over land still appear to be across SE AL, the
area closest to upper support and late this AFTN before DIURNAL
heating dies off, and in the eve. Overall QPF will remain low with
rain totals less than one half inch. Temperatures will remain above
NORMAL today, with highs in the MID to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]…
Upper trough will deamplify further as it pivots into QUE early
Tues. The front will erode over our area tonight and wash out
across CNTRL FL on Tues. A 40-10% NW-SE POP gradient tonight
mainly before midnight.Cooler AIR will move in behind the front
tonight however cold air ADVECTION is limited so only expect lows
dropping into the upper 40s for portions of SE AL to the mid 50s
elsewhere.

In WAKE of front, a dry zonal FLOW aloft with continental polar
airmass over Ern CONUS expected for Tues and Wed. High PRESSURE
will extend from from the OH and TN valleys SWD to TX on Tues
building Ewd on Wed with cool NLY flow over local region. In
response, local gradients will again tighten. A weak shortwave
passes thru the region on wed thru wed NIGHT helping define a weak
trough that will drop across the area with some isentropic lift on
Wed but little in the way of rain will accompany it. On Tues and
Wed, highs will be much closer to normal, ranging from the mid 60s
in SE Alabama to the upper 70s in the far southeastern Big Bend.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through next Monday]…
The extended forecast will begin with predominately zonal flow
across the CONUS; a shortwave trough is expected to be centered
roughly over our forecast area – a feature that is currently evident
on water vapor satellite loops just approaching the Pacific coasts
of Oregon and northern California. The 12.00z ECMWF shows a more
amplified wave, while the 12.00z GFS indicates a very low amplitude
wave. Already the shortwave trough appears to be fairly vigorous
just off the west coast, and the 12.00z runs CMC and UKMET are in
fairly good agreement with the ECMWF. As such, we opted to include
rain chances Wednesday Night rather than follow the drier Gridded
MOS and MEX solutions.

After that, greater uncertainties arise regarding the evolution of
the synoptic flow pattern. The 12.00z operational runs of the ECMWF
and GFS both indicate the potential for a CUTOFF low to form near or
over the Southeastern US with wave breaking at the southern end of a
digging/amplifying trough by next weekend. Only about half the GFS
ENSEMBLE members indicate a similar pattern, so there are still
several possibilities beyond mid-week. For now we have adopted a
consensus approach with slightly below normal temperatures and
fairly dry weather until the models begin to converge on a solution.

&&

.AVIATION [through 12z Tuesday]…
The low STRATUS that models had been advertising has failed to
materialize thus far. Therefore, the 12z SET of TAFs is calling for
predominately VFR until the approach of a cold front in the west
with some MVFR possible later in the period at ECP, DHN, ABY with
some SCATTERED SHRA. Front and associated SHRA should weaken with
time, so things were kept dry and VFR at VLD and TLH for now.

&&

.MARINE…
With high pressure still camped out over the mid-Atlantic, another
SURGE in the easterly flow thru rest of overnight will justify
exercise caution headlines. Winds and SEAS will diminish during the
day today and remain below exercise caution levels, before becoming
offshore and increasing late tonight in the wake of a front. A
period of ADVISORY conditions are possible on Tuesday. Thereafter,
conditions will slowly improve. However, moderate northeast winds
are forecast to continue through the end of the work week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 AM EST Fri Nov 9 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Surface data from early this morning show the surface RIDGE
centered just north of the forecast area. Winds have either gone
CALM or are very light out of the north. Temperatures have
plummeted this morning and are largely in the upper 30s with a
couple of spots already in the MID 30s AS of 2 am EST. Expect
areas of FROST to develop for much of the area before SUNRISE as
T/TD spreads remain small. Thankfully, the warm up will begin
today as surface HIGH PRESSURE shifts to the east of the region
and ridging builds in aloft. Highs will rebound nicely into the
lower 70s with mostly SUNNY skies. Still one cool NIGHT though
tonight. With the ridge positioned just off the Carolina Coast, it
will be a struggle for ideal radiational cooling conditions to
materialize. Nevertheless, this pattern does tend to support
cooler conditions in the SE Fla Big Bend. As a result, will be
indicating middle 30s with patchy frost possible in this portion
of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]…
The moderating TEMPERATURE trend will continue through the weekend
as high pressure moves into New England and ridging aloft
amplifies over the Southeastern CONUS. Temperatures during the day
will warm a couple of degrees each day with overnight lows nearing
50 Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday through Thursday]…
The amplified CONUS pattern continues at the beginning of the
period, only this time the local area is transitioning from
ridging to zonal FLOW as an upper level TROUGH/LOW lifts NE out of
the Plains states into the Northeast. As the trough lifts through
Wednesday it will bring a cold FRONT across the local area. Right
now, severe weather is not anticipated. Additionally, there is
decent agreement that this will not be a very dynamic system, thus
expect little organization and not much RAINFALL as the front
passes. Behind the front we will cool off once again with both
afternoon highs and overnight lows below climatological averages.
At this time it appears as though upper 30s to lower 40s will
return area wide both Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Saturday]…
VFR conditions will continue through the period at all of the
terminals, with very light winds during the next 24 hours.
Although temporary restrictions are not generally expected at this
time, a FEW periods of MVFR VIS are possible at VLD overnight, but
should be very brief, as evidenced by examining the higher
temporal resolution of the ASOS Vis Sensor. These very light winds
may also allow for a weak Sea Breeze to develop at ECP later this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE…
With the cold ridge of high pressure remaining centered
just to the north of the Coastal Waters, winds will remain generally
light out of the northeast to east today and tonight. By Saturday
and Sunday, as this ridge ejects more quickly off to the northeast,
the pressure GRADIENT will begin to tighten again over the Coastal
Waters. This will result in increasing east to southeast winds,
which should cause a period of cautionary to perhaps ADVISORY level
conditions over the Marine area beginning Saturday night, and
lingering into Monday. After a brief reprieve with the approach of a
weakening cold front on Monday, even stronger winds will LIKELY
enter the Waters behind this front, with more headlines needed.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Even though the forecast ERC at Wakulla county has dropped to 34
for today, with the Red Flag WARNING already in place for Leon and
Wakulla counties in the Florida Big Bend this afternoon, see
little reason to change the Red Flag Warning, as one point higher
in observed ERC, will verify it there. Also, with the long
durations of low afternoon relative HUMIDITY continuing, have
issued a new Fire Weather WATCH for Saturday afternoon for the
SAME 2 counties. Over Southeast Alabama and Southwest and South
Central Georgia, RH durations below 25% could REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH 2-3 hours this
afternoon, so will need to monitor Southeast Alabama closely,
while Fuel Moistures are still too high for our Georgia zones (on
the order of 12 percent, when 6 percent is needed for action).

&&

.HYDROLOGY
No impacts expected through the weekend with no RAIN in the
forecast.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
348 AM EST Thu Nov 8 2012

…First FROST of the season expected tonight…

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Cooler weather continues to remain entrenched across the region
with the LIKELY first frost of the season coming tonight.
Observational data from 00 UTC Thursday and throughout the morning
hours continues to show a strong cold/dry ADVECTION pattern AS the
upper TROUGH across the Eastern CONUS lifts northeast into New
England. At the surface, HIGH PRESSURE back across the MID
Mississippi Valley will shift southeastward into the Southern
Appalachians by the evening. With this particular synoptic SET up,
temperatures will not warm that much today despite full sunshine.
In fact, highs will not be that dissimilar to Wednesday`s values
that were only in the mid 60s.

The big story in the near term is with temperatures Thursday NIGHT
into Friday morning. Clear skies, and CALM winds will support
excellent radiational cooling overnight. The latest guidance has
trended a little colder than the inherited forecast down into the
lower 30s in some spots. With this cooler shift and UPSTREAM
observations showing the incoming airmass quite cold will trend
the inherited forecast down a degree or two. T/TD spreads are
around 3 or 4 degrees MAX overnight. With all this in mind, it
looks to be more than cold enough for areas of frost to develop
by daybreak on Friday. In fact, it wouldn`t be entirely
surprising to see a FEW spots hit the freezing mark (the MAV
guidance at TLH is 33 – which usually indicates some of the
normally colder areas in the Florida Big Bend should hit 31-32).
Because of the ISOLATED and conditional nature of freezing
temperatures, will not be issuing any FREEZE products at this
time. However, will have frost mention in the forecast products
and let the day shift define the area of the frost ADVISORY that
will almost certainly be issued later today.

From a purely climatolgical standpoint at Tallahassee, there`s
around a 70 percent CHANCE of a frost by November 9th and around a
30 percent chance of a freeze by November 9th. The record LOW for
Friday at Tallahassee is 21 set back in 1976.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]…
No real sensible weather throughout the short term period.
Temperatures will begin to slowly warm on Friday as ridging aloft
builds across the Southeast. With the RIDGE amplifying on
Saturday, temperatures will return to above NORMAL values with
highs in the upper 70s. Low temperatures during the period will
moderate enough to prevent any frost concerns on Friday night.
Even warmer overnight temperatures are expected Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday through Wednesday]…
The deep layer ridge over the Southeast on Sunday will break down
as a weakening cold FRONT moves southeast across the forecast area
Monday night and Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF both show this system
getting “stretched” out in the deep layer MOISTURE/QPF fields, as
the associated 500 MB HEIGHT falls remain north of our region.
With this weakening, the max POP for is only 30%. The front is
likely to stall across central FL Wednesday as a frontal wave
begins to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico, so this may not
be a “clean” frontal passage. The above-average temperatures
(especially daytime highs- which will be well into the 70s) ahead
of the cold front Sunday and Monday will give wave to near average
temperatures behind the front Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 06Z Thursday]…VFR conditions will continue
through the period at all of the terminals, with very light winds
overnight, much lighter N-NW winds on Thursday, followed by near
calm conditions Thursday night. With the SFC Ridge building in, no
additional CLOUD cover is expected through the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE…While the much cooler and drier AIR that is still rushing
in over the Marine Area is helping to maintain the Small Craft
Advisory over the western two-thirds of the Coastal Waters, the
pressure GRADIENT is starting to weaken as the High Pressure Ridge
approaches from the northwest. This Ridge will allow winds and SEAS
to subside steadily throughout the day, with much lighter offshore
winds by this afternoon. Light northeast then easterly winds will
continue through Friday, with 10 to 15 KNOT winds expected by Friday
night and Saturday as they veer to the southeast. Winds and seas
will increase further by the latter half of the  weekend, as the
High Pressure system moves eastward off the U.S. Eastern Seaboard,
and a new Cold Front approaches from the west. This will likely
result in a period of at least cautionary conditions over the
waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…With very dry air moving into the region today, low
afternoon relative humidities and high ERCs will result in Red Flag
Conditions across Leon and Wakulla counties in the Florida Big Bend.
With very similar conditions expected on Friday, and potentially
higher ERCs over parts of the Florida Panhandle, will issue a Fire
Weather WATCH for a larger area. Over our Georgia and Alabama
counties, afternoon relative humidities may drop below 25% on
Friday, but durations should be brief.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]
The deep upper TROUGH along the east coast the will further amplify
AS short wave energy drops down from the Midwest into the southeast
CONUS. Little or no sensible weather is expected but skies may be
slow to clear. With the CLOUD cover and cold AIR ADVECTION look for
HIGH temperatures only in the lower to MID 60s most inland areas
with upper 60s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]…
Aside from cool temperatures the next FEW nights we will see a
gradual warming trend with dry conditions as deep layer ridging
builds in from the west to finish out the week. Highs Thursday will
be in the mid to upper 60s with lower to mid 70s on Friday. Lows
tonight in the upper 30s to around 40 and a few degrees cooler
Friday morning with surface high PRESSURE becoming centered just
to our north.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday NIGHT through Tuesday]…
Deep layer ridging will the dominant weather feature this weekend
into early next week, with FAIR weather. High temperatures will be
above average (mid to upper 70s). Lows will begin the weekend a bit
below average (lower to mid 40s inland), then warm to above average
by Monday and Tuesday (mid 50s). A cold FRONT will move east across
the region Monday night and Tuesday, bringing with it a CHANCE of
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 06Z Thursday] Despite a large deck of STRATUS covering a
bit more than the northern one-half of the CWA early this morning,
only VLD is below VFR conditions early this morning (with MVFR level
Cigs at 1600 FT). ABY did have had a 5 HR period of MVFR Cigs
earlier Tuesday evening, these have since lifted back into the VFR
RANGE. Therefore, while this deck will make an additional push
southward through the rest of the early morning hours, (before
dissipating during the the mid morning) VFR conditions will prevail
through the rest of the period, with cooler and drier air filtering
in from the north.

&&

.MARINE…The pressure GRADIENT between the strong developing LOW
Pressure system moving northward towards New England, and the RIDGE
of High Pressure well off to our to our northwest, has created
WIDESPREAD cautionary conditions across our Coastal Waters this
morning. This is shown well at Buoys 42036, 42039, and the C-Tower
(at the lowest 10 meter elevation), with sustained north to
northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts. These stronger
winds and higher SEAS will continue into tonight before diminishing
on Thursday morning. After a brief reprieve, winds and seas will
increase again this weekend ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Dispersions and ERC`s will be above critical thresholds this afternoon
in the Florida panhandle but minimum relative humidities are
forecast to stay just above 35 percent. For Thursday, we see minimum
relative humidities drop below 35 percent over a portion of the
panhandle but dispersions will be much lower. Once deep layer
ridging takes hold by Friday, there will LIKELY be fire weather
concerns that will need to be addressed.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
The upcoming RAINFALL for tonight and Tuesday is not expected to
be heavy enough to create flooding concerns, and there are no
significant river rises expected over the next week across the
area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2012

Updated for 12Z aviation section.

.NEAR TERM [Today]…
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a deep LOW PRESSURE system will
end from west to east by noon or early afternoon. Most of the
thunderstorms will be over the coastal waters ahead of the surface
which was near Panama City at 08z. Some of the storms over the local
waters this morning may be strong to briefly severe. The surface low
will rapidly move east and off the northeast Florida coast by this
afternoon dragging a southwest extending cold FRONT with it.
Meanwhile, the MID/upper level low will be crossing central Georgia
this morning and weakening AS it lifts into the the mid-Atlantic
states this evening. Skies may be slower to clear than what the
models are showing and we also accounted for the possibility of a
FEW showers or patchy light RAIN lingering across our Georgia zones
through the afternoon associated with the wrap around MOISTURE.
Otherwise, winds will be shifting to the northwest throughout the
tri-state region along with cooler and drier conditions. HIGH
temperatures will RANGE from the lower 60s across our northernmost
GA zones to the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Florida Panhandle
and Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]…
Another potent SHORTWAVE will drop down from central Canada
tonight into the southeast U.S. on Wednesday further amplifying the
long wave TROUGH over the eastern CONUS. Little or no sensible
weather is expected with this feature aside from possibly an
increase in cloudiness. The axis of the upper trough will swing to
our east on Thursday with deep layer ridging approaching the CWA
from the west. TEMPS will drop into the lower to mid 40s tonight
with highs on Wednesday and Thursday only in the mid to upper 60s.
The coldest temps are forecast for Wednesday NIGHT where all inland
areas should see upper 30s with mid 40s near the coast by daybreak
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday night through next Monday]…
Deep layer ridging will continue to build in from the west and by
late in the week temperatures are expected to moderate back to
near/above NORMAL levels. Dry conditions are expected through next
weekend before rain chances increase ahead of a cold front early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION…[Through 06z Wednesday]
IFR cigs have developed behind the exiting low pressure system this
morning. These conditions will primarily impact KABY, KDHN, and
KECP. The low clouds should burn off by mid to late morning with VFR
conditions thereafter.

&&

.MARINE…
A surface low in the panhandle waters early this morning will push
east of the waters by early afternoon dragging a cold front with it.
Winds and SEAS will increase rapidly in the WAKE of this departing
system. Cautionary to marginal ADVISORY level winds will develop
today and continue into Thursday morning. Winds will subside below
headline criteria from Thursday through Friday night. High pressure
will strengthen northeast of the area by the weekend which will
bring a return of cautionary level winds by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Showers early this morning, will exit the region to the east by
midday with drier AIR moving in from the west. However, even with
the drier airmass, lower temperatures will keep HUMIDITY values
above critical levels. The next CHANCE for red flag conditions will
be late in the week as the airmass remains dry, and temperatures
begin to warm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
The upcoming RAINFALL for tonight and Tuesday is not expected to be
heavy enough to create flooding concerns, and there are no
significant river rises expected over the next week across the area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
625 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2012

Updated for 12z aviation discussion.

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]…
A weak cold FRONT will continue to push off to the south and east
of our CWA this morning bringing a brief period of dry weather
today. With the offshore FLOW, temperatures will be cooler with MAX
TEMPS generally in the lower to MID 70s under mostly SUNNY skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Wednesday]…
A vigorous short wave will dive southeastward from the Missouri
Valley tonight into the southeast CONUS with an upper LOW closing
off and moving across the central portions of AL and GA during the
day Tuesday. This will induce CYCLOGENESIS with a broad surface low
developing over or just south of our coastal waters Tuesday morning
sliding east across north central Florida and then into the western
Atlantic the remainder of the day. Deep layer MOISTURE along with
decent lift will provide the best chances for WIDESPREAD RAIN across
the FA in over a month tonight into at least mid day Tuesday. Since
the surface low is forecast to pass to our south we will remove
mention of TSTMS although an ISOLATED elevated STORM cannot be ruled
out, especially across the southeast Big Bend. Rain will be ending
from west to east Tuesday but time HEIGHT cross sections indicate
that skies may be slow to clear so went with a less optimistic sky
cover. This deep low PRESSURE system will depart from us on
Wednesday AS it races northeastward up the eastern seaboard.
However, another closed low will be dropping from the Great Lakes
region into the mid-Atlantic states on Wednesday. This will keep the
long wave TROUGH positioned over the region at least through the
short term period. MIN temps tonight will be near NORMAL (around
50). Temperatures will be below seasonal levels for the remainder of
the period with highs in the 60s both days and lows dipping into the
upper 30s to lower 40s by daybreak Wednesday away the coastal
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday NIGHT through next Monday]
The extended period begins with a highly amplified pattern in place
across the CONUS, characterized by a deep trough over the eastern
states and a RIDGE out west. Cold AIR ADVECTION will be ongoing
Tuesday night and continue through much of the day on Wednesday.
This will keep temperatures below normal through Thursday, with
highs in the mid 60s to near 70s, and lows in the upper 30s to lower
40s. The western ridge will slide east by late in the week allowing
temperatures to moderate back to near/above normal levels. Dry
conditions are expected through next weekend before rain chances
increase ahead of a cold front early next week.

&&

.AVIATION…[Through 12z Tuesday]
Drier air and light winds will keep conditions VFR through much of
today. By late this evening, clouds will begin to return ahead of a
cold front. MVFR cigs with SHRA are expected after 06z as a front
moves across the region.

&&

.MARINE…
A developing area of low pressure will cross over or just south of
the waters tonight and Tuesday. Winds will be light today but will
increase tonight possibly reaching ADVISORY levels over the offshore
segments. With strong offshore flow developing behind this system,
winds will be elevated to at least cautionary levels across the
entire marine area Tuesday night before diminishing below headline
criteria for the remainder of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Drier air behind a cold front will allow relative HUMIDITY values to
drop below 35 percent across inland portions of northwest Florida
for several hours on Monday afternoon. However, durations and ERC
values look marginal so will not issue any headlines at this time.
Conditions will moisten ahead of another system for Tuesday with
drier air returning by mid to late week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
The upcoming RAINFALL for Tonight and Tuesday is not expected to be
heavy enough to create flooding concerns, and there are no
hydrological concerns or significant river rises expected over the
next week across the area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2012

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Sunday]…
The upper FLOW across the deep south will gradually deamplify
through Saturday AS the deep TROUGH over the northeastern states
lifts out and a SHORTWAVE RIDGE slides east along the northern
gulf coast. This will keep the weather dry across the region while
allowing temperatures to warm back to above-NORMAL values. For
today, HIGH are expected to approach 80 degrees. By Saturday
afternoon, high should REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH to the lower to MID 80s at all
locations. LOW temperatures will warm into the 50s for the next
FEW nights.

By Sunday, the flow across the country will begin to reamplify as
a ridge builds along the west coast, and a shortwave drops into
the lower Mississippi River Valley. The associated surface FRONT
will move into central GA/AL by Sunday afternoon with SCATTERED
showers possible along and ahead of the front. Return flow is
forecast to be limited ahead of this front, so WIDESPREAD precip
appears unlikely at this time. However, ISOLATED to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially across the
northern portions of the forecast area. The increase in CLOUD
cover ahead of the front should also knock high temperatures back
a degree or two for Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday NIGHT through Thursday]…
A broad upper trough over the eastern U.S. at the beginning of the
period further amplifies as potent short wave energy drops southeast
from the northern plains Sunday night with an upper low closing off
over central Georgia on Tuesday. The low and axis of the trough
swing east off the SE U.S. coast on Wednesday before the weakening
low and deamplifying trough lift to the northeast through the
remainder of the work week. Locally, weak upper ridging builds in
for Thursday and Friday. At the surface, a weak low PRESSURE system
will move across the Carolina`s Sunday night and into the western
Atlantic on Monday. The cold front will stall to our north but with
MOISTURE increasing at all levels, scattered showers will be
possible across the CWA during the Sunday night and Monday
timeframe. We should then see scattered to possibly NUMEROUS showers
Monday night through Tuesday as the aforementioned deep upper low
and surface refection push into the southeast U.S.. This activity
will all be ahead of a cold front that should pass to our east by
late Tuesday. High pressure along with a much drier airmass filter
into the region Wednesday through Friday. High temperatures will be
in the upper 70s Monday cooling into the upper 60s to lower 70s for
the rest of the week. Low TEMPS will be in the lower to mid 50s
Monday morning and then lower to mid 40s Tuesday through
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION [through 06Z Saturday]…
VFR conditions are forecast for the entire TAF period. Winds will
be from the west to southwest 10 KTS or less.

&&

.MARINE…
Weak high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will generate light
west to southwest winds over the coastal waters through the
weekend. Conditions are forecast to remain below headline criteria
through Monday. Strong offshore flow may develop by Tuesday in the
WAKE of a cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
Although the airmass will begin to moisten today, minimum
relative humidities across the eastern two-thirds of north Florida
will drop below critical levels for several hours. This combined
with continued low fuel moisture and high dispersions has prompted
the issuance of a Red Flag WARNING for this afternoon. The airmass
will moisten above critical levels over the weekend with no Red
Flag conditions expected at least into the middle of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Since there has been no heavy RAIN in our region for the last
several weeks, and since significant rain is unlikely for the
next several days, river will remain below action STAGE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
623 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…

Updated at 0625 EDT:

A weak surface trough combined with weak upper level shortwave
support have generated light showers, both offshore and closer to
the coast this morning. Just recently, the showers generated
over land have started to reach the ground despite the relatively
dry boundary layer. With the southward motion of the features
expected to continue, expect the threat for showers to shift
offshore by early to mid morning with only a very slight chance
for a shower near the Forgotten Coast into the afternoon. With the
passage of the surface trough, high pressure will build into the
region and combined with the subsidence aloft will dry things out
rather quickly. With heights gradually increasing today, expect a
slightly warmer afternoon than yesterday with highs peaking in the
middle 70s area wide. Overnight, lows will be ever so slightly
warmer than this morning. Expect middle 40s to be common inland,
with middle 50s likely along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]…
The gradual warming trend will continue into the weekend as the
mean flow becomes more zonal, continuing the rising heights. Above
average temperatures are expected both Friday and Saturday as
lower to middle 80s are expected to creep back into the picture.
Overnight lows will moderate through the 50s, eventually
increasing to above normal levels, into the middle 50s by Saturday
night. No rain is expected through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]…
There is good agreement among the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs in
transitioning the 500 mb long wave pattern from that of a fairly
zonal pattern over the weekend, to a fairly amplified trough over
the Southeast U.S. by early next work week. This means that our
forecast area will at least have a chance of rain…something that
has been lacking lately. (Although climatologically, October is our
driest month of the year, so the past few weeks have not been that
unusual). The window for rain will be Sunday and Monday, as a cold
front passes through the region. Although there appears to be
sufficient deep layer moisture, Q-G forcing, and instability for
scattered showers (and even a few thunderstorms), the vertical wind
profile and thermodynamics do not appear favorable for an organized
severe storm threat. (November is typically when we begin to be more
vigilant about the threat of severe storms, since the Gulf Coast
severe storm season generally goes from November through March).

A secondary (and fairly impressive) short wave is forecast by both
model runs to translate quickly through our area on Tuesday, but
neither the GFS nor ECMWF MOS carry PoP much above 10%, perhaps
because the initial system scours away much of the deep layer
moisture. Temperatures on Sunday will be well above average (by
about 10 degrees for highs), then return to near average Tuesday and
Wednesday behind the cold front, with Monday being a transition day.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 10Z Thursday]…

Updated at 0625 EDT:

The short wave approaching our forecast area this morning has helped
produce more rain than previously forecast, resulting in brief
periods of MVFR vis/cigs at KECP and KTLH. Recent radar trends and
high-res NWP output indicate that these SHRA will taper off from
west to east through mid morning, followed by VFR conditions and
fair weather. Winds will be NW 5 to 10 KT this afternoon, becoming
light by sunset.

&&

.MARINE…
Winds will begin to settle today as high pressure builds in over
our coastal waters. Calm winds and seas will continue through
Monday, when a weak cold front could bring a slight enhancement.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
With plenty of dry air still in place, and a favorable combination
of winds & mixing heights, we upgraded our Fire Weather Watch to a
Red Flag Warning for all of our FL zones today. Admittedly it will
be marginal in some areas (like Franklin & Dixie Counties), but
there is too much uncertainty to leave anyone off at this point. It
appears that the humidity will be a little above FL`s critical
threshold for Friday, so no watch/warning will be issued.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
Since there has been no heavy rain in our region for several weeks,
and since rain is unlikely for the next several days, river stages
will remain below action levels.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
634 AM EDT Wed Oct 31 2012

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…

The far reaches of the remnants of Sandy will continue to provide
the local area with BREEZY conditions today. Expect frequent gusts
up to 25 mph for most locations. Otherwise, today will be slightly
warmer than yesterday with HIGH temperatures reaching the 70
degree mark area wide. No RAIN is expected today.

The continued strong winds, now shifting to a more westerly
direction will increase surf along westward facing Panhandle
beaches. The elevated winds and increased surf will create
dangerous rip CURRENT conditions along Bay and Gulf counties.
Reference our Coastal Hazard Message for more information.

Overnight, a piece of SHORTWAVE energy will rotate around the base
of the large eastern U.S. LOW PRESSURE and may generate SCATTERED
showers and an ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM or two over our coastal
waters. Land areas should remain dry with clouds clearing, and
lows bottoming out in the lower to middle 40s across Alabama and
Georgia, and near 50 degrees across inland areas of north Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]…

Through the end of the week the east coast TROUGH will gradually pull north, and surface high pressure will build into the region. The main effect from this will be a gradual warming trend with both afternoon and overnight temperatures. Expect highs to climb through the middle and upper 70s, with overnight low slowly climbing to the 50 degree mark by Friday NIGHT. No rain is
expected both Thursday and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]…

The latest available GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement,
showing the next cold FRONT passage (albeit slow) Sunday night and
Monday. The synoptic low level FLOW leading up to this frontal
passage does not look very conducive for a major influx of deep
layer MOISTURE and/or INSTABILITY, so the POP for this period
(20-30%) is not that far above CLIMATOLOGY. Temperatures will be
well above average through Sunday, especially during the daytime
when highs will REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH the lower to MID 80s. Temperatures will return
to near average behind the cold front Tuesday and Wednesday, with
Monday being somewhat of a transition day.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12 UTC Thursday]…

Updated at 0630 EDT-
The short wave moving southeast over our region this morning has
some areas of broken cigs, but these VFR cigs are up around 25k
FT. Winds will increase to 8 to 14 KT by late this morning or
early afternoon, with occasional gusts of 20 to 25 KT. Winds will
become light by SUNSET. VIS will be unlimited through at least
12 UTC Thursday, and cigs will be unlimited AS well, after the VFR
cigs move east later this morning.

&&

.MARINE…

Strong winds generated by the pressure difference between the
remnants of Sandy and high pressure in the Gulf will diminish
gradually as what was Sandy weakens and moves north. However,
Cautionary conditions are expected to continue through tonight
before winds and SEAS go CALM by Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…

This will be one of those days when conditions will be close to our
various local Red Flag criteria. After coordinating with our
surrounding offices, we decided to drop the watches for GA & AL and
keep the WARNING for all our FL zones for today. The modest
moistening trend should prevent AL from meeting critical conditions,
and the fuel moisture is not quite low enough in south GA. We will
issue a Fire WX WATCH for all our FL counties for Thursday, as
conditions will be similar to today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY

Since there has been no heavy rain in our region for several
weeks, and since rain is unlikely for the next several days, river
stages will remain below action levels.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY AT 29/1200 UTC IS NEAR 36.8N
71.1W. SANDY IS ABOUT 230 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NEW JERSEY…AND ABOUT 270 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK
CITY. SANDY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 75 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC…AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 35N TO 40N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N TO
42N BETWEEN 57W AND 81W IN SOUTH CAROLINA…IN A CLOSED 1004 MB
ISOBAR.

…THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU
NEAR 12N16W 8N19W 8N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO 8N33W
7N40W TO 7N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N38.5W AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 41W
AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 56W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
41W/42W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N…BREAKING UP THE ITCZ. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W
AND 50W.

…DISCUSSION…

THE GULF OF MEXICO…

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN IS TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH THAT SURROUNDS HURRICANE SANDY…IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOVING FROM MEXICO
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…MIXING WITH THE EARLIER COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN SPANNING THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE LAST 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT ENGULFS HURRICANE SANDY AT THE MOMENT
SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-MOVING DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N76W…ACROSS ABACO ISLAND AND
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS…ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W…TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA…TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF MEXICO NEAR 17N92W. A DEFINITE BREAK EXISTS IN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE STATIONARY FRONT
STARTS NEAR 18N98W AND IT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD TO 24N100W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 91W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO
20N96W IN COASTAL MEXICO…THROUGH NORTHERN GUATEMALA…
TO 16N81W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT2…AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST…MIAOFFNT4…FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ENGULFS HURRICANE
SANDY PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS…ACROSS JAMAICA…TO 15N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N70W TO 16N76W TO 10N80W
AT THE PANAMA COAST.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…TO THE EAST OF THE LINE
OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR…20N70W 10N80W.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N70W 9N76W 4N81W. THE
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH…THAT IS ALONG 13N73W 7N77W 3N79W.
THE TROUGH SPANS THE AREA FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA…INTO COLOMBIA…TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE
WEST OF COLOMBIA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT2…AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST…MIAOFFNT3…FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
WEST OF 84W…INCLUDING YUCATAN CHANNEL…FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N39W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N40W. NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
AND 50W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N34W TO 25N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION…SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 25W AND 34W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 17N
BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.

ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 53W AND 65W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH THAT SURROUNDS HURRICANE SANDY…AND UNDER THE
AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N54W.

A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N24W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
11N TO 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 31W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST…MIAHSFAT2…FOR DETAILS
ABOUT HURRICANE SANDY. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH
A 986 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N40W AT THE START OF
THE FORECAST…MOVING TO 990 MB NEAR 35N35W AT 24 HOURS…AND
MOVING TO 993 MB NEAR 35N32W AT 48 HOURS. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 15 FEET IN AREAS AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
405 AM EDT Mon Oct 29 2012

.NEAR TERM [Today]…
The 02 UTC regional surface analysis showed a cold FRONT southeast
of our forecast area, and an unusually tight PRESSURE GRADIENT (with
above-NORMAL WIND speeds) owing to the steep pressure difference
between HURRICANE “Sandy” (off the MID Atlantic Coast) and a rather
strong ANTICYCLONE over the Central Plains. Vapor imagery and upper
AIR data showed a broad longwave TROUGH over the Southeast U.S.,
including a short wave over our region and Hurricane Sandy, which
will essentially merge with this cold core system over the next day
or two. With a deep, dry airmass in place, sinking air, and cold air
ADVECTION, we expect a SUNNY (but relatively cool) day. Highs will
only REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH the mid 60s (about 10 degrees below CLIMATOLOGY). The
consensus of the latest local WRF, 4km inner next NAM, GFS, and
“normal” adjustments to the sustained wind speeds indicate the
potential for wind gusts of 30 KT or more this afternoon, especially
in south GA & AL where we have a Wind ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Wednesday]…
The large, deep layer CYCLONE (which will include the remnants of
“Sandy”) will move little Tuesday and Wednesday, but will gradually
begin to fill. Tuesday promises to be nearly a carbon copy (or “copy
& paste” in today`s parlance) of today, with unusually strong
northwest winds and relatively cool temperatures. The latest
GFS/NAM/ECMWF MOS are all quite cold for Tuesday morning, with lows
just above freezing at our normally coldest inland sites. However,
the HIGH resolution NWP guidance is about 10 degrees warmer. While
that is normally the case in the cool season, the high-res guidance
has shown some skill when forecasting LOW temperatures on mornings
when the boundary layer winds remain elevated, AS we expect in this
case. We blended the MOS with the high-res NWP to get lows that are
in the upper 30s. With the elevated wind speeds and dry air, FROST
appears unlikely at this time. Highs on Tuesday will once again only
reach the mid 60s. Wind gusts may once again approach local wind
advisory criteria for portions of our forecast area.

After another relatively cool morning Wednesday (with lows in the
upper 30s to lower 40s inland), a warming trend will begin as
500 MB heights rise about 10 dm between Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs
will return to near average (lower 70s), and winds will be
considerably weaker. For our first “guess” at Trick-or-treat time,
we expect FAIR skies, West wind 5 MPH or less, and temperatures
falling from the mid 60s to upper 50s- which would be a fairly
accommodating evening for most costumes.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday NIGHT through next Monday]…
A rather uneventful period is expected from the end of the week
through the weekend. The pattern will become more progressive with
the large east coast trough moving eastward and an upper level RIDGE
building into the area for the weekend. Dry conditions are expected
with gradually moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06z Tuesday]…
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. WINDY
conditions are LIKELY with northwest winds gusting to between 25 and
30 knots through the day before diminishing after SUNSET. The
strongest winds are expected to be at KDHN and KABY.

&&

.MARINE…
Advisory conditions continue, with even a FEW gusts approaching
GALE force. The various MOS, global, and high-res NWP guidance are
in good agreement in forecasting advisory conditions persisting
until about 18 UTC Tuesday, which is about the time the waves will
drop below 7 FT in the offshore waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
The combination of gusty winds and very dry air overspreading the
region will create red flag conditions over all of our northwest
Florida and southeast Alabama areas this afternoon and likely again
on Tuesday afternoon. Red flag conditions are also possible on
Wednesday before the airmass begins to slowly moisten while winds
decrease. The southwest Georgia zones do not have their 6 percent
fuel MOISTURE requirement for red flag warnings, although it will be
dry and windy there as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
Since there has been no heavy RAIN in our region for several
weeks, and since rain is unlikely for the next several days, river
stages will remain below action levels.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 26.4N 76.9W AT 26/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 13 NM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND ABOUT 417 NM S-SE OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70
KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 69W-79W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
21N66W TO 27N71W. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N42W TO 10N41W MOVING W 5-10
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF
14.5N42.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 38W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N48W TO 10N48W MOVING W 5-10
KT. A SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THE LOW IS NO LONGER EVIDENT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF
15N46W.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W 5N24W TO 5N31W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N43W 11N58W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 33W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 19W-30W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR FLORIDA THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE SANDY
BRINGING WIND AND RAIN TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…PLEASE SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W
GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING ACROSS MEXICO. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS. A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MOBILE ALABAMA INTO THE E GULF ALONG
25N86W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS OVER THE SW GULF WITH MOISTURE MOVING W
OVER THE SE GULF COMPLIMENTS OF HURRICANE SANDY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 27N E OF 85W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS OF HURRICANE SANDY. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER…SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE NW GULF SHORTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. LARGE FIELD OF
STRONG N TO NE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY IN THE W
ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE E GULF TO 90W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT THROUGH SUN AS SANDY MOVES N. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TODAY REACHING FROM THE W
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS SAT AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO N
YUCATAN PENINSULA MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA…
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING ARE THE REMNANT RAINS AND WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY…PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W TO OVER HONDURAS
NEAR 15N87W COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE DRY AIR THAT
COVERS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN THEN N ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TOWARD HURRICANE SANDY. A
SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN PANAMA/COSTA RICA TO E CUBA/HISPANIOLA ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 65W-76W AND FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN
72W-82W. HURRICANE SANDY OVER N BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION. STRONG SW WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND BETWEEN JAMAICA…CUBA…AND HAITI WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
TODAY THROUGH SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL SUN THEN STALL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS HURRICANE SANDY MOVING ALONG
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS…PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE
UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 24N59W THEN NW TO OVER NORTH
CAROLINA GENERATING AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N W
OF 63W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA…AND
FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 59W-63W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
THE N/CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N50W
ALONG 31N58W TO 32N67W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 25N24W. HURRICANE
SANDY WILL MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS NW AND N
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE NE FRI NIGHT CONTINUING
OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EARLY SUN.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 AM EDT Fri Oct 26 2012

.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]…Although HURRICANE Sandy will
remain well off to our east (over the Atlantic to the east of the FL
Peninsula), it still is expected to have some peripheral effects
over the CWA in combination with the approaching Upper Level TROF
and SFC Cold FRONT. This will be primarily due to Sandy`s large size
and expanding WIND field, along with a tightening PRESSURE GRADIENT
between Sandy and the approaching front. Also, the Upper Trof to our
W will help to steer Sandy to the N then NE AS it crosses our
LATITUDE on SAT. and Sat. NIGHT. For Today, the eastern half of the
CWA is already under a CIRRUS canopy from Sandy (which should reduce
the FOG and LOW CIG chances early this morning), and this should
continue to expand today. Also, winds will continue to increase in
magnitude over land and sea (with SCA conditions over much of the
marine area), and across the eastern half of the CWA sustained winds
of 15 mph, with gusts over 20mph, are expected later today. Finally,
although a brief SHOWER cannot be ruled out over the eastern 1/3 of
the region and the coastal waters today and tonight, could not
justify going any higher than silent 10 POPS at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]…With the pressure gradient
expected to be at its strongest on Saturday (due to Sandy to the
east and the approaching front to the west), sustained winds of 15
to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph are now FCST for much of the CWA.
Therefore, if the winds get any stronger than currently expected,
may need to consider a Wind ADVISORY. Also, the best chances for a
shower through the period will be over eastern portions of the CWA
on Saturday AFTN, with 20% PoPs PROGGED just to our east and silent
10s over our area. Then, after the weakening front (which is still
expected to lose its forerunning showers and storms) pushes through
the region on Sat. night, the much cooler and drier AIR will begin
to filter in from the NW. However, the more significant effects from
the very cool air will be felt from Sunday night into the middle of
next week, where both HIGH and Low TEMPS will to levels well below
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Friday]…A chilly airmass is
expected to dominate the extended forecast with  northwesterly FLOW
and high pressure nosing into the area in the WAKE of the large east
coast STORM. Highs could remain in the 60s early next week with lows
dipping well down into the 40s with some upper 30s also possible.
The airmass is expected to remain dry with PoPs less than 20 percent
through the period.
&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 06Z Saturday] Easterly flow will increase MOISTURE slightly
over the eastern half of the forecast area with the possibility of
some MVFR conditions at KTLH and IFR conditions at KABY and KVLD for
a FEW hours this morning. This is expected to be mainly in the form
of low cigs, but some patchy VIS restrictions are possible as well.
As daytime mixing commences, VFR conditions are expected to return
by MID-morning, but gusty NE winds will also develop with a
relatively tight pressure gradient in place due in part to Sandy off
the Atlantic coast.

&&

.MARINE…Although today may begin with only cautionary conditions
across the waters, increasing winds through today and tonight will
result in Small Craft Advisory levels to gradually overspread the
Coastal Waters from east to west. These elevated winds and SEAS are
now expected to linger into Saturday night, before diminishing back
just a bit late Saturday night into Sunday, so will lengthen the SCA
until 06Z on Sunday morning and spread it further to the west as
well. However, this may not be the end of the rough maritime
conditions, with another bout of SCA conditions expected by later on
Sunday and lingering into Tuesday. For the time being, will hold off
on a second Advisory until the timing of these conditions is more
certain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…In general, red flag conditions are not expected
through Saturday. However, fire danger is expected to elevate on
Monday and Tuesday behind a cold front with much lower RH expected
along with gusty northwest winds and dry fuels. Red flag conditions
look LIKELY at that time for at least portions of northwest Florida
and perhaps other areas as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…There are no hydrological concerns or significant river
rises expected over the next week across the area.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 75.9W AT 25/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 9 NM N-NW OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND ABOUT 44 NM W-NW
OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MOVING N-NEW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB. RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE HURRICANE SANDY HAS
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS MAKES SANDY A STRONG CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. HURRICANE
SANDY MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 0525 UTC W OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER OVER
THE SW QUADRANT INCLUDING E JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN
74W-79W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W TO
15N74W…FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 70W-74W…AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 19N66W TO 24N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE GREATER
ANTILLES FROM 70W-78W. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA… HAITI…THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM TONY IS CENTERED NEAR 30.1N 40.3W AT 25/0300 OR
ABOUT 815 NM W-SW OF THE AZORES MOVING E-NE AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 39W-42W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM
25N43W TO 30N38W.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N37W TO 8N32W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-19N
BETWEEN 33W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 14N43W TO 7N45W MOVING W 5-10 KT.
WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 10N31W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WESTERN MOST TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 9N47W ALONG 10N53W TO 11N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
11W-18W AND FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 22W-33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 46W-51W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SW MEXICO AND THE W GULF TO
92W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF FROM ALABAMA
ALONG 23N87W TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF AGAIN TONIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA S OF 26N E OF 83W ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS
FROM HURRICANE SANDY. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. HURRICANE SANDY WILL
LIFT N ACROSS CUBA TONIGHT BRINGING STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THU EXPANDING INTO E HALF OF THE
GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA…
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT HURRICANE SANDY MOVING TOWARD
E CUBA…PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
16N W OF 82W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN
80W-86W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE SANDY. HURRICANE
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS E CUBA THIS MORNING INTO THE W
ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRI THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…
HURRICANE SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE W ATLC AND TROPICAL STORM
TONY IS MOVING INTO THE E ATLC…PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W TO BERMUDA DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N
TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM PUERTO RICO TO CUBA W OF 65W
TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 30N W OF 60W AND IS ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 325 NM E OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W
ALONG 25N45W NARROWING AS IT DIPS S INTO THE TROPICS TO 2N47W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N44W TO 21N49W.
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1018 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N30W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N21W TO 20N35W THEN N TO BEYOND 32N30W. HURRICANE SANDY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
LATE THU THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM
EARLY SUN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER ON SUN.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
639 AM EDT Thu Oct 25 2012

Updated Marine and Aviation Discussions.

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
The long wave pattern across the CONUS this morning features a
TROUGH over the west and a RIDGE over the east. Surface analysis
shows HIGH PRESSURE centered off the Carolina coast ridging
southwestward over the southeastern states into the Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, HURRICANE Sandy recently made LANDFALL (around 0525Z)
near Santiago De Cuba AS a strong category 2 hurricane.

Over the local area, skies are clear and we have yet to see any
VSBY reductions as of 06Z. However, several guidance members
indicate the potential for some FOG early this morning, mainly
over our GA zones and perhaps as far south as I-10 in the FL Big
Bend. A FEW of the HI-res models do show some showers trying to
move into our far eastern zones this afternoon. However, similar
to yesterday, we believe most of these will dissipate just before
reaching our zones. We feel a silent 10 POP best handle the
situation. It will be another very warm day with MAX TEMPS rising
to the MID 80s across most areas which is 5-8 degrees above
NORMAL. One or two upper 80s cannot be ruled out. LOW tonight will
generally be in the lower 60s, or some 7-9 degrees above normal.
Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out over our eastern zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]…
By Friday morning, the upper level trough will be positioned over
the Great Plains. It will then make slow eastward progress through
Saturday. This trough will continue to steer Sandy northward,
keeping it well east of our area. The 06Z ADVISORY from NHC shows
the CENTER of Sandy just east of Abaco Island in the northeast
Bahamas at 12Z Friday and then about 390 miles east of Jacksonville
by 18Z Saturday. This TRACK will MEAN a slight increase in northerly
breezes on Saturday over our region. Marine areas will see stronger
winds (see below). Temps will remain well above normal on Friday
with mid 80s common. A cold FRONT will move into our northwestern
zones late Friday NIGHT bringing MIN temps into the mid 50s in
Coffee County. Most of the rest of the area will see lows around 60.
The front will make slow eastward progress during the day Saturday
reaching an ABY-TLH line. Max temps will REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH the upper 70s to
lower 80s. This is still expected to be a dry frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]…
Still very little change to the CURRENT extended forecast, with ever
growing confidence that the airmass behind the next Cold Front
(which will be exiting the CWA on SAT. night) will clearly be the
coldest of the season thus far. This is shown well in the Numerical
and the Raw Model guidance, which is continuing to trend slightly
downward in both Max and Min Temps to levels well below CLIMO. Also,
this is expected to be a fairly long lived trend, with the colder
AIR beginning to impact the region on Sunday, but lingering well
into the middle of next week. This will LIKELY result in a few days
with  High Temps not getting out of the 60s, and Lows dipping into
the mid to upper 30s away from the coast. Also, believe that the GFS
solution with Hurricane Sandy (which should be extra-tropical by the
start of this period) does go a bit awry by Wed. and Thu., so will
not buy off on the 30-40% POPS suggested by the GFS derived MEX
guidance, and plan on sticking with silent 10s for this particular
time frame. This will keep the extended FCST essentially
PRECIPITATION free through the period.
&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 12Z Friday] As of 1035 UTC this morning, VLD has been the
only terminal to experience any restrictions thus far, but they have
just dropped down to LIFR level Cigs. With a large batch of Fog and
Low Cigs continuing to build to the east, still think that TLH has a
shot at a period of IFR conditions from 12 to 14 UTC, with MVFR
conditions possible at ABY and ECP. Decided to keep DHN at VFR for
the rest of today, as the sunshine is likely to erode this low
canopy before it can reach that far to the west. After any
restrictions have lifted, expect VFR conditions to prevail at all
sites today, with just a period of BKN VFR level CU possible this
afternoon. Fog and Low Cigs will likely be a concern tonight as
well, especially at the eastern terminals again.

&&

.MARINE…
The current episode of elevated winds over the marine area will
continue for the entire forecast period as winds gradually veer from
the east to the north and then northwest as distant Sandy gains
LATITUDE. WIND speeds will generally rise no higher than exercise
caution over the western legs. However, the eastern legs east of
Apalachicola should see advisory level winds (and offshore SEAS)
from late tonight into Saturday. The advisory conditions will spread
west to cover the entire forecast waters for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
In general Red Flag conditions are not expected during the next 2-3
days, as the CWA will remain quite warm and fairly humid in advance
of the approaching Cold Front. However, on Friday, due to the very
warm afternoon temperatures, high dispersions, along with marginal
relative HUMIDITY and ERCs, parts of the Interior Florida Panhandle
may just barely end up meeting criteria. Therefore, will hold off on
any WATCH/WARNING decisions for one more cycle, but it will be
possible that a very small (in area) Red Flag Warning may be needed
for this area later today. Behind the front, much cooler and drier
air will gradually filter into the region from the northwest
beginning on Sunday, and depending on afternoon temperatures,
relative humidities may reach Red Flag levels over parts of the
Tri-State area during the beginning of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrological concerns or significant river rises
expected over the next week across the area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
640 AM EDT Wed Oct 24 2012

Updated Aviation Discussion.

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Looking at the long wave pattern this morning, we see a RIDGE
extending from the eastern U.S. north through Ontario to Hudson Bay.
A TROUGH is located over the western part of N. America. Surface
analysis shows HIGH PRESSURE centered off the Carolina coast ridging
westward across the southeastern states to TX. TS Sandy is moving
north across the Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica.

Little change is anticipated locally over the near term. While the
ridge will weaken somewhat to our north, Sandy will continue to move
northward and is forecast to briefly become a HURRICANE by this
evening AS it moves north of Jamaica. This will maintain a tight
GRADIENT across southeastern U.S. with easterly FLOW bringing
MOISTURE westward from the Atlantic. This should manifest itself
mainly in the form of CUMULUS clouds which will redevelop once again
today. While an ISOLATED SHOWER cannot be ruled out across our
eastern zones, POPS will be capped at silent 10 in those areas for
this afternoon. High TEMPS will be similar to those observed on
Tuesday with lower 80s north to MID 80s south. The increasing
moisture will maintain the recent moderating trend in MIN temps with
lows tonight only dipping to the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]…
All eyes will be on Sandy through this period. The STORM is forecast
to move north across the Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Sandy will
make its closest approach to FL Friday evening before being steered
off toward the northeast by the approaching upper level trough. Our
forecast area will continue to see offshore flow that will become
BREEZY by Friday. Temps will remain above NORMAL with highs
generally in the mid 80s and lows Thursday NIGHT mainly in the lower
60s. PoPs will be negligible.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]…
Not much change to the previous FCST reasoning or end results,
except for even greater confidence that the next AIR mass behind
the Cold FRONT over the weekend will be the coolest of the season
thus far. Before it passes through, we can expect one more warm
day over the CWA on SAT., with highs reaching the lower to middle
80s. While not weakening from a T/TD point of view, The Front
itself is expected to lose much of its moisture as it moves
through late on Sat. and Sat. night, with some additional drying
effects due to Sandy`s passage well off to our NE. Therefore, we
are still unable to justify anything higher than silent 10 PoPs,
with Temperatures dropping to near CLIMO levels on Sunday, before
falling to well below climo Mon-Wed on both Highs and Lows. High
Temps are expected to struggle to REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH the 70 degree mark through
this period, with LOW Temps possibly dropping into the upper 30s
to lower 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION…
[Through 12Z Thursday] While quite a FEW locations in the CWA did
have periods of MVFR VIS (with a couple of locations briefly
reaching IFR/LIFR levels), the fcst period of MVFR Vis was able to
elude our terminals overnight and early this morning, with VFR
conditions once again SET to prevail for the remainder of today and
tonight. There are some signs of potential MVFR Vis between 10 and
12 UTC towards Thu. morning once again, so did go with prevailing
5SM for ABY and VLD, as the greatest potential will be to the east.

&&

.MARINE…
A prolonged period of elevated winds is in progress over the marine
area. With strong high pressure north of the region, an easterly
flow regime is producing a NOCTURNAL SURGE with exercise caution
conditions this morning. Typical of this pattern, winds will slacken
off a bit during the day before increasing to cautionary levels once
again tonight into Thursday morning. After another brief lull
Thursday afternoon, winds will begin to back to the northeast in
response to Tropical Storm Sandy which will be moving northward
across the Bahamas. Our eastern waters will see ADVISORY conditions
Thursday night and Friday which will spread to the western waters by
Friday night. Cautionary to marginal advisory conditions will then
continue on through Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
It appears very clear that the fairly warm and somewhat humid
conditions will keep afternoon relative humidities safely away
from Red Flag levels for the rest of this week and into at least
the first half of the upcoming weekend. Behind the Cold Front,
however, much cooler and drier air will progressively filter into
the region from the northwest, which may result in Red Flag or
near Red Flag conditions for parts of the Tri-State area by the
beginning of next week.

Tropical Storm SANDY will soon reach hurricane strength.  Here’s the update from the National Hurricane Center…

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

…SPECIAL FEATURES…

TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 76.9W AT 24/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT ABOUT 105 NM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 235 NM
S-SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MOVING N AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60
KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N82W TO 13N76W…FROM
12N-19N BETWEEN 71W-77W…AND FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 68W-71W.
TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA…HAITI…THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND E CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES…ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE BAHAMAS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM TONY IS CENTERED NEAR 27.4N 47.9W AT 24/0900 OR
ABOUT 1230 NM W-SW OF THE AZORES MOVING E-NE AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N49W TO 31N43W.

…TROPICAL WAVES…

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N34W TO 9N32W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. THE LATEST WINDSAT PASS SHOWED THAT THE LOW IS NO LONGER
EVIDENT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 13N42W TO 8N41W MOVING W NEAR 5
KT. A SMALL MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CO-LOCATED WITH
THIS WAVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE.

…ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH…

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR
12N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS TO THE S NEAR 7N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG
8N29W S  OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE TO 9N39W WHICH IS E
OF THE WESTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN
16W-30W.

…DISCUSSION…

GULF OF MEXICO…
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SW MEXICO AND THE W GULF TO
92W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF FROM THE SE
CONUS ALONG 85W ACROSS W CUBA/YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF
AGAIN THIS MORNING. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE S GULF AT 24/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM
23N94W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES
AGAIN THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT E THROUGH SUN.
TROPICAL STORM SANDY WILL MOVE N ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA
HAT WILL EXPAND INTO THE E GULF THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA…
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AGAIN THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL STORM SANDY
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN…PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS W CUBA/
YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 16N84W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
80W-AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
INLAND OVER HONDURAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
STORM SANDY. TROPICAL STORM SANDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO
HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN A
HURRICANE AS IT CROSSES CUBA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU WHERE IT
WILL LOSE STRENGTH BACK TO TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO THE
W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…
TROPICAL STORM TONY IS A CONCERN THIS MORNING FOR THE CENTRAL
ATLC…PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM SANDY EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N
ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO BERMUDA DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
FROM PUERTO RICO TO CUBA BETWEEN 67W-79W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE NW ATLC N OF 28N W OF 58W AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
ABOUT 180 NM OFF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 32N W OF 50W THEN NARROWS AS IT
DIPS S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N53W ALONG 20N49W INTO THE
TROPICS TO NEAR 2N45W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. TROPICAL STORM TONY IS TO THE E OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK
1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N32W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA NEAR 10N14W ALONG 14N34W TO 23N43W AND
IS BEING AMPLIFIED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THU WHILE
MAINTAINING STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SW ATLC AS TROPICAL
STORM SANDY IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVES N AND INTENSIFIES TO
HURRICANE TODAY. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS E CUBA
TONIGHT/EARLY THU AND EMERGE OFF THE N COAST OF CUBA AS TROPICAL
STORM EARLY THU CROSSING THE BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE FRI/EARLY SAT
BEFORE MOVING MORE NE OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE SUN.

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