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		<title>Weather alert: Wind Advisory</title>
		<link>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/23/weather-alert-wind-advisory-10/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Feb 2012 08:32:04 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[WWUS72 KTAE 230831 NPWTAE URGENT &#8211; WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 331 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012 ALZ065&#62;069-FLZ007-009&#62;011-013-016&#62;019-026-GAZ120&#62;131-142&#62;148- 155&#62;161-240000- /O.NEW.KTAE.WI.Y.0005.120223T1700Z-120224T0000Z/ COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON- JACKSON-CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT- BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN- SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF&#8230;ENTERPRISE&#8230;OZARK&#8230;FORT RUCKER&#8230; DALEVILLE&#8230;HEADLAND&#8230;ABBEVILLE&#8230;GENEVA&#8230;HARTFORD&#8230;SAMSON&#8230; SLOCOMB&#8230;MALVERN&#8230;TAYLOR&#8230;ASHFORD&#8230;DOTHAN&#8230;KINSEY&#8230; COWARTS&#8230;WEBB&#8230;COTTONWOOD&#8230;REHOBETH&#8230;DE FUNIAK SPRINGS&#8230; HUDSON&#8230;BONIFAY&#8230;CRYSTAL LAKE&#8230;CHIPLEY&#8230;FIVE POINTS&#8230; MARIANNA&#8230;GRACEVILLE&#8230;MALONE&#8230;SNEADS&#8230;BLOUNTSTOWN&#8230;QUINCY&#8230; CHATTAHOOCHEE&#8230;TALLAHASSEE&#8230;SPRING HILL&#8230;MONTICELLO&#8230; MADISON&#8230;GREENVILLE&#8230;SWEETWATER&#8230;GEORGETOWN&#8230;FORT GAINES&#8230; CUTHBERT&#8230;SHELLMAN&#8230;ARLINGTON&#8230;MORGAN&#8230;EDISON&#8230;LEARY&#8230; DAWSON&#8230;ALBANY&#8230;LEESBURG&#8230;SMITHVILLE&#8230;SYLVESTER&#8230;ASHBURN&#8230; TIFTON&#8230;FITZGERALD&#8230;OCILLA&#8230;DOUGLASVILLE&#8230;BLAKELY&#8230; COLQUITT&#8230;NEWTON&#8230;CAMILLA&#8230;PELHAM&#8230;MOULTRIE&#8230;ADEL&#8230;SPARKS&#8230; NASHVILLE&#8230;DONALSONVILLE&#8230;BAINBRIDGE&#8230;CAIRO&#8230;THOMASVILLE&#8230; QUITMAN&#8230;VALDOSTA&#8230;LAKELAND [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=4warnwxteam.com&amp;blog=13134026&amp;post=7023&amp;subd=4warnwxteam&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>WWUS72 KTAE 230831<br />
NPWTAE</p>
<p>URGENT &#8211; WEATHER MESSAGE<br />
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL<br />
331 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012</p>
<p>ALZ065&gt;069-FLZ007-009&gt;011-013-016&gt;019-026-GAZ120&gt;131-142&gt;148- 155&gt;161-240000-<br />
/O.NEW.KTAE.WI.Y.0005.120223T1700Z-120224T0000Z/<br />
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON- JACKSON-CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY- QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT- BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN- SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-<br />
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF&#8230;ENTERPRISE&#8230;OZARK&#8230;FORT RUCKER&#8230; DALEVILLE&#8230;HEADLAND&#8230;ABBEVILLE&#8230;GENEVA&#8230;HARTFORD&#8230;SAMSON&#8230; SLOCOMB&#8230;MALVERN&#8230;TAYLOR&#8230;ASHFORD&#8230;DOTHAN&#8230;KINSEY&#8230;<br />
COWARTS&#8230;WEBB&#8230;COTTONWOOD&#8230;REHOBETH&#8230;DE FUNIAK SPRINGS&#8230; HUDSON&#8230;BONIFAY&#8230;CRYSTAL LAKE&#8230;CHIPLEY&#8230;FIVE POINTS&#8230;<br />
MARIANNA&#8230;GRACEVILLE&#8230;MALONE&#8230;SNEADS&#8230;BLOUNTSTOWN&#8230;QUINCY&#8230; CHATTAHOOCHEE&#8230;TALLAHASSEE&#8230;SPRING HILL&#8230;MONTICELLO&#8230;<br />
MADISON&#8230;GREENVILLE&#8230;SWEETWATER&#8230;GEORGETOWN&#8230;FORT GAINES&#8230; CUTHBERT&#8230;SHELLMAN&#8230;ARLINGTON&#8230;MORGAN&#8230;EDISON&#8230;LEARY&#8230; DAWSON&#8230;ALBANY&#8230;LEESBURG&#8230;SMITHVILLE&#8230;SYLVESTER&#8230;ASHBURN&#8230; TIFTON&#8230;FITZGERALD&#8230;OCILLA&#8230;DOUGLASVILLE&#8230;BLAKELY&#8230;<br />
COLQUITT&#8230;NEWTON&#8230;CAMILLA&#8230;PELHAM&#8230;MOULTRIE&#8230;ADEL&#8230;SPARKS&#8230; NASHVILLE&#8230;DONALSONVILLE&#8230;BAINBRIDGE&#8230;CAIRO&#8230;THOMASVILLE&#8230; QUITMAN&#8230;VALDOSTA&#8230;LAKELAND<br />
331 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012 /231 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012/</p>
<p>Wind Advisory in Effect From noon EST /11 AM Cst/ Today to<br />
7 PM EST /6 PM Cst/ This Evening&#8230;</p>
<p>the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a wind advisory, which is in effect from noon EST /11 AM cst/ today to 7 PM EST /6 PM cst/ this evening.</p>
<p>* timing, from around midday through the early evening hours.</p>
<p>* winds, southwest wind sustained around 20 mph with frequent gusts to around 30 mph. isolated gusts across portions of<br />
southeast alabama and southwest georgia may approach 40 mph.</p>
<p>* impacts, gusty cross winds along area roadways will make travel difficult for high profile vehicles.</p>
<p>precautionary/preparedness actions&#8230;</p>
<p>a wind advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high<br />
profile vehicles. use extra caution.</p>
<p>&amp;&amp;</p>
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		<title>NWS Discussion</title>
		<link>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/22/nws-discussion-19/</link>
		<comments>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/22/nws-discussion-19/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Feb 2012 05:00:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>4warnwxteam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Connor Vernon]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://4warnwxteam.com/?p=7019</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 900 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2012 SYNOPSIS... AT UPPER LEVELS... The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by a LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH/CUTOFF low over Baja CA and and the northeast portion  of the country, with a similarly low-amplitude RIDGE over PAC NW and Rockies. This Baja low [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=4warnwxteam.com&amp;blog=13134026&amp;post=7019&amp;subd=4warnwxteam&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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<pre>
AREA <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=FORECAST">FORECAST</a> DISCUSSION
NATIONAL <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=WEATHER">WEATHER</a> SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=EST">EST</a> Wed Feb 22 2012
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SYNOPSIS">SYNOPSIS</a>...
AT UPPER LEVELS...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by a <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=LOW">LOW</a>-<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=AMPLITUDE">AMPLITUDE</a>
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=TROUGH">TROUGH</a>/<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=CUTOFF">CUTOFF</a> low over Baja <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=CA">CA</a> and and the northeast portion  of the
country, with a similarly low-amplitude <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=RIDGE">RIDGE</a> over <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=PAC">PAC</a> <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=NW">NW</a> and
Rockies. This Baja low is expected to <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=MEANDER">MEANDER</a> slowly <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=EWD">EWD</a> over
northern Mexico through Friday. Another <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SHORTWAVE">SHORTWAVE</a> over PAC nw will
amplify <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=AS">AS</a> it continues to dig east-southeast, reaching the Ohio
River Valley by early Friday.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
A broad diffuse <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=HIGH">HIGH</a> <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=PRESSURE">PRESSURE</a> ridge extended north of the Bahamas
through the southern Florida peninsula. Generally lower pressure was
found to the northwest OF <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=CWA">CWA</a>. In between, warm <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=FRONT">FRONT</a> near the
coast. This combination has <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SET">SET</a> up broad southerly low-level <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=FLOW">FLOW</a>
over much of the Southeast.

On Thurs, an <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=H5">H5</a> Trough lingers over N FL with <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=WSW">WSW</a> flow and 40kt <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=JET">JET</a>
over area. warm front should lift new during days enhanced by jet.
This should lead to <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=BREEZY">BREEZY</a> to <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=WINDY">WINDY</a> conditions approaching <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=WIND">WIND</a>
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=ADVISORY">ADVISORY</a> criteria, particularly over the northern third of our
forecast area.

As the above upper level shortwave digs and amplifies, surface
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=CYCLOGENESIS">CYCLOGENESIS</a> should commence from the Dakotas tonight into the
eastern Great Lakes by Friday. An accompanying cold front trailing
to the southwest will also <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SURGE">SURGE</a> southeastward across much of the
central and eastern US, reaching the eastern Gulf Coast on Friday
and will <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=LIKELY">LIKELY</a> be our next <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=STORM">STORM</a> system. Until that cold front
passage occurs, there will be periodic chances of <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=RAIN">RAIN</a> and storms
with breezy south to southwest winds.

There is better model consensus today on the timing of the cold
front, reaching roughly the I-65 corridor just northwest of our area
shortly after <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SUNRISE">SUNRISE</a>, and pushing into the southeast part of our
area (near Dixie County) by 00z Saturday. This places the arrival of
the front squarely in the <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=DIURNAL">DIURNAL</a> timeframe, and that`s when the
highest (approx 60%) <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=POPS">POPS</a> were concentrated. as the upper level
trough and cold front move <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SEWD">SEWD</a> and phase with lingering H5 Trough
over local area. The main concern then is related to potential
severe weather which remains a possibility and will dealt with in
more details on next <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=AFD">AFD</a>.

&amp;&amp;

.SHORT TERM [REST OF TONIGHT <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=THRU">THRU</a> EARLY THURSDAY]...
Analysis during wed <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=AFTN">AFTN</a>/early <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=EVE">EVE</a> was due to upper shortwave
moving ewd across NB most Apalachee Bay. At surface weak warm front
from <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SRN">SRN</a> la ESE thru the warm gulf <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=CURRENT">CURRENT</a> to our west and then
across and shelf waters of Gulf of <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=MEX">MEX</a>. This combination provided
enough lift for ample rain and <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SCT">SCT</a> thunderstorms especially over <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SE">SE</a>
Big Bend and Apalachee Bay. However, activity waned last <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=FEW">FEW</a> hours
as initial shortwave moved ewd reaching E coast by 9PM with some
drying in its <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=WAKE">WAKE</a>. Also, earlier large scale warm and <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=MOISTURE">MOISTURE</a>
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=ADVECTION">ADVECTION</a> shifted <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=NWD">NWD</a>. However, AT 9PM another albeit weaker
shortwave was moving ENE across Apalachicola Bay generated showers
across se Big Bend and adjacent waters. Have updated <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=ZFP">ZFP</a> to lower
pops thru 06z with <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=MAX">MAX</a> 60% over water down to less than 20 <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=PCT">PCT</a> <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=NRN">NRN</a>
tier counties. (<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=ALTHO">ALTHO</a> some light <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=DRIZZLE">DRIZZLE</a> a good bet over CWA).
satellite <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=PIX">PIX</a> implies a few more impulses may move in from waters
later tonight so cant drop pops too much. For 06z-12z, 0-40% NW-SE
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=GRADIENT">GRADIENT</a> with <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=ISOLD">ISOLD</a> tstms across mainly coastal counties and
waters.

Aside from rain chances overnight, tonight will be the first of a
couple of <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=MUGGY">MUGGY</a> nights out ahead of the main system expected to
arrive on Friday. Strengthening surface winds and <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=CLOUD">CLOUD</a> cover and
passing impulses will likely limit dense <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=FOG">FOG</a> development across the
region, however, the potential for low <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=STRATUS">STRATUS</a> will be high. Best
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=CHANCE">CHANCE</a> of fog will be near the coast and e/se of a line from
Tallahassee thru Valdosta and Cross City and adjusted <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=GRIDS">GRIDS</a>
accordingly.

&amp;&amp;

.AVIATION..(thru 00Z Thursday)
Ongoing moist <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=AIR">AIR</a> advection from the gulf will keep ceilings in the
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=IFR">IFR</a>/<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=LIFR">LIFR</a> <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=RANGE">RANGE</a> for most of the area overnight. Expecting fog to
impact all terminals starting at 3z near the coast and near 5z
further inland, with significantly reduced <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=VIS">VIS</a> between 1 to 2SM at
TLH,VLD,and ECP. 40kt winds near 2000ft will keep wind <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SHEAR">SHEAR</a> wording
in the TAFs from 3z to 14z. Winds will pick up to around 20 <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=KTS">KTS</a>
gusting to 30kts region wide tomorrow afternoon and <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=MVFR">MVFR</a> ceilings
will linger into the afternoon as well.

&amp;&amp;

.MARINE...<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=MID">MID</a> eve buoys showing 10-15kts. winds expected to increase
from w-e overnight with se winds 15-20kt likely with <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SEAS">SEAS</a> building
to 4-5 feet offshore. thus will keep SCEC headlines.</pre>
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		<title>Weather alert: Dense Fog Advisory</title>
		<link>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/22/weather-alert-dense-fog-advisory-38/</link>
		<comments>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/22/weather-alert-dense-fog-advisory-38/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Feb 2012 13:39:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>4warnwxteam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/22/weather-alert-dense-fog-advisory-38/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[WWUS72 KTAE 221339 NPWTAE URGENT &#8211; WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 839 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012 ALZ068-069-FLZ007&#62;017-026-027-108-112-114-115-GAZ123&#62;131-142&#62;146- 155&#62;158-221500- /O.EXT.KTAE.FG.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-120222T1500Z/ GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON- JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN- LEON-LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF- COASTAL FRANKLIN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY- THOMAS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF&#8230;GENEVA&#8230;HARTFORD&#8230;SAMSON&#8230;SLOCOMB&#8230; MALVERN&#8230;TAYLOR&#8230;ASHFORD&#8230;DOTHAN&#8230;KINSEY&#8230;COWARTS&#8230;WEBB&#8230; COTTONWOOD&#8230;REHOBETH&#8230;DE FUNIAK SPRINGS&#8230;HUDSON&#8230;BONIFAY&#8230; CRYSTAL LAKE&#8230;CHIPLEY&#8230;FIVE POINTS&#8230;MARIANNA&#8230;GRACEVILLE&#8230; MALONE&#8230;SNEADS&#8230;YOUNGSTOWN&#8230;BLOUNTSTOWN&#8230;WHITE CITY&#8230; WEWAHITCHKA&#8230;QUINCY&#8230;CHATTAHOOCHEE&#8230;TALLAHASSEE&#8230; SPRING [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=4warnwxteam.com&amp;blog=13134026&amp;post=7018&amp;subd=4warnwxteam&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>WWUS72 KTAE 221339<br />
NPWTAE</p>
<p>URGENT &#8211; WEATHER MESSAGE<br />
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL<br />
839 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012</p>
<p>ALZ068-069-FLZ007&gt;017-026-027-108-112-114-115-GAZ123&gt;131-142&gt;146- 155&gt;158-221500-<br />
/O.EXT.KTAE.FG.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-120222T1500Z/<br />
GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON- JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN- LEON-LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF- COASTAL FRANKLIN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY- THOMAS-<br />
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF&#8230;GENEVA&#8230;HARTFORD&#8230;SAMSON&#8230;SLOCOMB&#8230; MALVERN&#8230;TAYLOR&#8230;ASHFORD&#8230;DOTHAN&#8230;KINSEY&#8230;COWARTS&#8230;WEBB&#8230; COTTONWOOD&#8230;REHOBETH&#8230;DE FUNIAK SPRINGS&#8230;HUDSON&#8230;BONIFAY&#8230; CRYSTAL LAKE&#8230;CHIPLEY&#8230;FIVE POINTS&#8230;MARIANNA&#8230;GRACEVILLE&#8230; MALONE&#8230;SNEADS&#8230;YOUNGSTOWN&#8230;BLOUNTSTOWN&#8230;WHITE CITY&#8230;<br />
WEWAHITCHKA&#8230;QUINCY&#8230;CHATTAHOOCHEE&#8230;TALLAHASSEE&#8230;<br />
SPRING HILL&#8230;SWEETWATER&#8230;CRAWFORDVILLE&#8230;FREEPORT&#8230;<br />
SANTA ROSA BEACH&#8230;PANAMA CITY&#8230;PARKER&#8230;PORT SAINT JOE&#8230;<br />
APALACHICOLA&#8230;CARRABELLE&#8230;ARLINGTON&#8230;MORGAN&#8230;EDISON&#8230;LEARY&#8230; DAWSON&#8230;ALBANY&#8230;LEESBURG&#8230;SMITHVILLE&#8230;SYLVESTER&#8230;ASHBURN&#8230; TIFTON&#8230;FITZGERALD&#8230;OCILLA&#8230;DOUGLASVILLE&#8230;BLAKELY&#8230;<br />
COLQUITT&#8230;NEWTON&#8230;CAMILLA&#8230;PELHAM&#8230;MOULTRIE&#8230;DONALSONVILLE&#8230; BAINBRIDGE&#8230;CAIRO&#8230;THOMASVILLE<br />
839 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012 /739 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012/</p>
<p>Dense Fog Advisory now In Effect Until 10 AM EST /9 AM Cst/<br />
This Morning&#8230;</p>
<p>* visibility, one quarter mile or less in many locations.</p>
<p>* impacts, low visibility will make travel difficult in spots until mid morning.</p>
<p>precautionary/preparedness actions&#8230;</p>
<p>a dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be<br />
reduced to less than one quarter mile. if driving, slow down, use your low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.</p>
<p>&amp;&amp;</p>
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		<title>Weather alert: Dense Fog Advisory</title>
		<link>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/22/weather-alert-dense-fog-advisory-37/</link>
		<comments>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/22/weather-alert-dense-fog-advisory-37/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Feb 2012 10:10:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>4warnwxteam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/22/weather-alert-dense-fog-advisory-37/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[WWUS72 KTAE 221009 NPWTAE URGENT &#8211; WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 509 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012 ALZ068-069-FLZ007&#62;017-026-027-108-112-114-115-GAZ123&#62;131-142&#62;146- 155&#62;158-221400- /O.NEW.KTAE.FG.Y.0010.120222T1009Z-120222T1400Z/ GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON- JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN- LEON-LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF- COASTAL FRANKLIN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY- THOMAS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF&#8230;GENEVA&#8230;HARTFORD&#8230;SAMSON&#8230;SLOCOMB&#8230; MALVERN&#8230;TAYLOR&#8230;ASHFORD&#8230;DOTHAN&#8230;KINSEY&#8230;COWARTS&#8230;WEBB&#8230; COTTONWOOD&#8230;REHOBETH&#8230;DE FUNIAK SPRINGS&#8230;HUDSON&#8230;BONIFAY&#8230; CRYSTAL LAKE&#8230;CHIPLEY&#8230;FIVE POINTS&#8230;MARIANNA&#8230;GRACEVILLE&#8230; MALONE&#8230;SNEADS&#8230;YOUNGSTOWN&#8230;BLOUNTSTOWN&#8230;WHITE CITY&#8230; WEWAHITCHKA&#8230;QUINCY&#8230;CHATTAHOOCHEE&#8230;TALLAHASSEE&#8230; SPRING [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=4warnwxteam.com&amp;blog=13134026&amp;post=7017&amp;subd=4warnwxteam&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>WWUS72 KTAE 221009<br />
NPWTAE</p>
<p>URGENT &#8211; WEATHER MESSAGE<br />
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL<br />
509 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012</p>
<p>ALZ068-069-FLZ007&gt;017-026-027-108-112-114-115-GAZ123&gt;131-142&gt;146- 155&gt;158-221400-<br />
/O.NEW.KTAE.FG.Y.0010.120222T1009Z-120222T1400Z/<br />
GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON- JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN- LEON-LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF- COASTAL FRANKLIN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY- THOMAS-<br />
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF&#8230;GENEVA&#8230;HARTFORD&#8230;SAMSON&#8230;SLOCOMB&#8230; MALVERN&#8230;TAYLOR&#8230;ASHFORD&#8230;DOTHAN&#8230;KINSEY&#8230;COWARTS&#8230;WEBB&#8230; COTTONWOOD&#8230;REHOBETH&#8230;DE FUNIAK SPRINGS&#8230;HUDSON&#8230;BONIFAY&#8230; CRYSTAL LAKE&#8230;CHIPLEY&#8230;FIVE POINTS&#8230;MARIANNA&#8230;GRACEVILLE&#8230; MALONE&#8230;SNEADS&#8230;YOUNGSTOWN&#8230;BLOUNTSTOWN&#8230;WHITE CITY&#8230;<br />
WEWAHITCHKA&#8230;QUINCY&#8230;CHATTAHOOCHEE&#8230;TALLAHASSEE&#8230;<br />
SPRING HILL&#8230;SWEETWATER&#8230;CRAWFORDVILLE&#8230;FREEPORT&#8230;<br />
SANTA ROSA BEACH&#8230;PANAMA CITY&#8230;PARKER&#8230;PORT SAINT JOE&#8230;<br />
APALACHICOLA&#8230;CARRABELLE&#8230;ARLINGTON&#8230;MORGAN&#8230;EDISON&#8230;LEARY&#8230; DAWSON&#8230;ALBANY&#8230;LEESBURG&#8230;SMITHVILLE&#8230;SYLVESTER&#8230;ASHBURN&#8230; TIFTON&#8230;FITZGERALD&#8230;OCILLA&#8230;DOUGLASVILLE&#8230;BLAKELY&#8230;<br />
COLQUITT&#8230;NEWTON&#8230;CAMILLA&#8230;PELHAM&#8230;MOULTRIE&#8230;DONALSONVILLE&#8230; BAINBRIDGE&#8230;CAIRO&#8230;THOMASVILLE<br />
509 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012 /409 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012/</p>
<p>Dense Fog Advisory in Effect Until 9 AM EST /8 AM Cst/ This<br />
Morning&#8230;</p>
<p>the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a dense fog advisory, which is in effect until 9 AM EST /8 AM cst/ this morning.</p>
<p>* visibility, one quarter mile or less in many locations.</p>
<p>* impacts, low visibility will make travel difficult in spots until mid morning.</p>
<p>precautionary/preparedness actions&#8230;</p>
<p>a dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be<br />
reduced to less than one quarter mile. if driving, slow down, use your low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.</p>
<p>&amp;&amp;</p>
<br />  <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gocomments/4warnwxteam.wordpress.com/7017/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/comments/4warnwxteam.wordpress.com/7017/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godelicious/4warnwxteam.wordpress.com/7017/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/delicious/4warnwxteam.wordpress.com/7017/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gofacebook/4warnwxteam.wordpress.com/7017/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/facebook/4warnwxteam.wordpress.com/7017/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gotwitter/4warnwxteam.wordpress.com/7017/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/twitter/4warnwxteam.wordpress.com/7017/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/gostumble/4warnwxteam.wordpress.com/7017/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/stumble/4warnwxteam.wordpress.com/7017/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/godigg/4warnwxteam.wordpress.com/7017/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/digg/4warnwxteam.wordpress.com/7017/" /></a> <a rel="nofollow" href="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/goreddit/4warnwxteam.wordpress.com/7017/"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://feeds.wordpress.com/1.0/reddit/4warnwxteam.wordpress.com/7017/" /></a> <img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=4warnwxteam.com&amp;blog=13134026&amp;post=7017&amp;subd=4warnwxteam&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>NWS Discussion for the Week</title>
		<link>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/22/nws-discussion-for-the-week-2/</link>
		<comments>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/22/nws-discussion-for-the-week-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Feb 2012 06:12:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>4warnwxteam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Connor Vernon]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://4warnwxteam.com/?p=7013</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 354 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2012 SYNOPSIS... The long wave pattern is continuing to progress. The RIDGE that was over the SE US yesterday has moved east over the MID-Atlantic. Currently over our region is a SHORTWAVE TROUGH that brought some light RAIN this morning and [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=4warnwxteam.com&amp;blog=13134026&amp;post=7013&amp;subd=4warnwxteam&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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<pre>
AREA <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=FORECAST">FORECAST</a> DISCUSSION
NATIONAL <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=WEATHER">WEATHER</a> SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
354 PM <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=EST">EST</a> Tue Feb 21 2012
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SYNOPSIS">SYNOPSIS</a>...
The long wave pattern is continuing to progress. The <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=RIDGE">RIDGE</a> that was
over the <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SE">SE</a> US yesterday has moved east over the <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=MID">MID</a>-Atlantic.
Currently over our region is a <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SHORTWAVE">SHORTWAVE</a> <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=TROUGH">TROUGH</a> that brought some
light <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=RAIN">RAIN</a> this morning and some <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=CLOUDY">CLOUDY</a> skies. Besides a <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=FEW">FEW</a> light
showers this morning, today has been a <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=CALM">CALM</a> day in terms of weather.
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=IR">IR</a> and visible imagery show mid-upper level clouds. <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=RADAR">RADAR</a> is <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=QUIET">QUIET</a>
with a few leftover showers on the outskirts of the forecast area.
The trough should continue to progress eastward, but more slowly
than yesterday`s ridge <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=AS">AS</a> it will begin lifting and our region
will begin to see more zonal <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=FLOW">FLOW</a> until a second <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=LOW">LOW</a> approaches
Thursday <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=NIGHT">NIGHT</a>. This low could render some weather on Friday.

&amp;&amp;

.NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]...
Heavy <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=CLOUD">CLOUD</a> cover and light rain from this morning have made us
lower today`s forecast <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=HIGH">HIGH</a> today to the mid to upper 60s. Skies are
expected to clear for a little bit with a short break in the cloud
cover. With light southerly winds overnight and high <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=MOISTURE">MOISTURE</a> from
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=RAINFALL">RAINFALL</a> and <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=ADVECTION">ADVECTION</a> by said winds, <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=FOG">FOG</a> is expected across most of
the area starting early tomorrow morning and continuing into the
afternoon. Model forecast soundings and statistical guidance
indicates that the fog could be dense in spots.

&amp;&amp;

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday through Friday Afternoon]...
Plenty of weather concerns in the short term period, as nearly 48
hours of low-level warm advection and associated various rain
chances will be followed by the arrival of a strong cold <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=FRONT">FRONT</a> on
Friday. We edited the <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=GRIDS">GRIDS</a> today out through 00z Saturday to ensure
a more smooth transition of weather elements into the previous
long-term forecast from last night.

First, model preferences. Differences have re-emerged from what was
a fairly good consensus amongst the 21.00z model suite. This seems
to be largely tied to two features: (1) the upper-level <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=CUTOFF">CUTOFF</a> low
that is centered near 28N/117W or just west of Baja California, and
(2) an elongated PV <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=ANOMALY">ANOMALY</a> / axis of <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SHEAR">SHEAR</a> <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=VORTICITY">VORTICITY</a> north of a
strong <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=JET">JET</a> streak in the Gulf of Alaska. The general theme amongst
the models is that the shear vorticity will consolidate and dig
southeast into the Plains by Thursday as the jet streak develops
eastward along the <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=NE">NE</a> rim of the Eastern Pacific ridge. This is
expected to lead to low-level <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=CYCLOGENESIS">CYCLOGENESIS</a> in the Great Lakes or
Ohio River Valley on Thursday, and will aid in driving a deeper cold
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=AIR">AIR</a> mass southeast behind a surging cold front. The new 12z <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=GFS">GFS</a> is
much faster with this cold front, pushing it through our area by 18z
Friday, whereas the global model consensus (and prior 00z GFS) was
much slower. In collaboration with surrounding WFOs, <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=TAFB">TAFB</a>, and <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=HPC">HPC</a>,
we have decided to go with the slower cold front timing, with most
weather elements a blend of 21.00z GFS, 21.12z <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=NAM">NAM</a>, and 21.00z
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=ECMWF">ECMWF</a>. There are also major differences in how the models handle the
Baja low, with potential implications for the long term period
(weekend and beyond). That will be sorted out on the overnight shift
by the long term forecaster.

For tomorrow, there is good agreement on a quick round of rain with
a fairly sharp N-S <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=POP">POP</a>/<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=QPF">QPF</a> <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=GRADIENT">GRADIENT</a>, with highest values south. This
seems to be forced largely in the low levels as isentropic ascent
kicks in as a response to a subtle shortwave trough ejects east from
the Rockies to the east coast in fast, nearly-zonal flow. Arguing
for greater rain coverage is the added benefit of being in the right
entrance region of a 120-130kt upper level jet streak. High-res
model guidance is in excellent agreement that showers will affect
mostly our marine and Florida zones, entering the western half of
our area mainly 14-18z, and then moving quickly east and diminishing
by early Wednesday evening. The various 4km WRF models all indicate
some small amounts of <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=CAPE">CAPE</a> with some weak-moderate <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=UPDRAFT">UPDRAFT</a>
velocities out over the Gulf, so <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=THUNDER">THUNDER</a> was added over the water.

The earlier prospects of <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SCATTERED">SCATTERED</a> thunderstorms on Thursday seem to
have dwindled on the latest model guidance. As we are <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=LIKELY">LIKELY</a> to warm
into the upper 70s and potentially near 80 degrees, we should see at
least a weak sea-breeze <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=CIRCULATION">CIRCULATION</a> develop by the afternoon. 12z
model guidance does seem to support this notion with some light QPF
(0.01-0.05") amounts hugging the coastline during the day. Forecast
soundings don`t indicate much <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=INSTABILITY">INSTABILITY</a>, with <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=LCL">LCL</a>-300mb lapse
rates almost at moist <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=ADIABATIC">ADIABATIC</a> levels. The SREF model <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=MEAN">MEAN</a> <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SBCAPE">SBCAPE</a>
is around 300 j/kg with a few members up around 600-800 j/kg. There
will also be quite a bit of <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=WIND">WIND</a> shear, with 0-6km bulk shear around
60 knots. Therefore, the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms is
non-zero. One potential flaw is strong <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=WAA">WAA</a> in the 900-800mb layer
just atop the boundary layer, particularly in the afternoon. This
could limit updraft strength and keep <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=CONVECTION">CONVECTION</a> mostly as shallow
showers. Given the amount of shear, there are a wide <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=RANGE">RANGE</a> of
convective possibilities on Thursday, so stay tuned!

It looks like we will see a lull for most of Thursday Night as
overnight storms would tend to fire to the northwest of us along the
cold front in the Mid-South. With the strong WAA regime and likely
increase in low cloud cover, it should be a warm night with lows in
the mid 60s. For Friday, severe weather is a possibility and we are
currently outlooked in the Day 4-8 <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=&lt;a href=">OUTLOOK</a>" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')"&gt;OUTLOOK with severe probabilities
at or above 30%. More details on this in the coming days, but the
main points with this forecast update are: (1) the timing of the
greatest severe weather threat appears to have shifted into the
daytime on Friday, (2) a <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=DIURNAL">DIURNAL</a> timing of the storms would probably
favor a bit more instability, (3) regardless of eventual timing the
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=ATMOSPHERE">ATMOSPHERE</a> will be highly sheared. While there are differences in
the models regarding timing and some <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=MESOSCALE">MESOSCALE</a> details, they all
agree that there will be an arc of thunderstorms along the front.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through next Tuesday]...
On a more positive note, the cold front and associated
thunderstorms will be exiting quickly to our east Friday evening
setting up a dry...although cooler weekend period. A more zonal
upper level pattern over-<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=TOP">TOP</a> surface high <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=PRESSURE">PRESSURE</a> building in
from the west supports near zero rain chances Saturday and Sunday.
The airmass arriving is quite chilly through. The late February
sun is getting stronger, so still anticipate highs into the 60s,
however a chilly night looks to be in store for Saturday night. As
of now have gone with <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=WIDESPREAD">WIDESPREAD</a> mid/upper 30s away from the
immediate coast, with normally colder spots down near freezing by
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SUNRISE">SUNRISE</a>. This will also need to be monitored closely, as the
eventual position of the surface high Saturday night will
determine if a more widespread light <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=FREEZE">FREEZE</a> will be possible.
Seasonal conditions with rebounding <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=TEMPS">TEMPS</a> then expected for the
early portion of next week.

&amp;&amp;

.AVIATION [through 18z Wednesday]...
12Z model guidance is showing lower CIGs and VISBYs for the <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=BR">BR</a> Wed
morning and conditions deteriorating earlier for ABY and DHN than
forecast at the 12Z <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=TAF">TAF</a> issuance. BR setup time remains similar to
the last issuance, beginning around 04Z, deteriorating near 09Z, and
improving at 16Z, earlier at ECP and VLD. Model agreement is quite
strong on low <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=VSBY">VSBY</a>, but weak on CIGs, especially after 14Z. Expect
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=VFR">VFR</a> conditions until around 04Z Wed when conditions <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=FALL">FALL</a> to <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=MVFR">MVFR</a>.
At 09 conditions will fall further to <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=IFR">IFR</a>, then return to MVFR
around 15Z.

&amp;&amp;

.MARINE...
Generally quiet marine forecast until at least Wednesday. A
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=NOCTURNAL">NOCTURNAL</a> <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SURGE">SURGE</a> of southerly winds could <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=&lt;a href=">REACH</a>" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')"&gt;REACH SCEC headline
levels Wednesday Night, subsiding briefly on Thursday, before
ramping up ahead of a cold front Thursday Night into Friday. We
went entirely with a <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SEAS">SEAS</a> forecast based on the SWAN model, as the
WW3 (based on the 12z GFS) seems to be: (1) too fast with frontal
timing, and (2) too weak with surface winds. The winds were a
blend of the ECMWF and NAM models which bring the front through
the coastal waters on Friday afternoon. Ahead of the front this
gives SSW winds around 25 <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=KT">KT</a> with seas building to 7-9 feet. The
combination of the rapid ramp-up in wind-waves, plus longer period
<a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=SWELL">SWELL</a> originating from the 15-20kt SSW flow Thursday to Thursday
Night is expected to build surf heights to <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=ADVISORY">ADVISORY</a> levels on
Friday (6ft or so), with dangerous rips likely.

&amp;&amp;

.FIRE WEATHER...
High relative <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gl_word.php?word=HUMIDITY">HUMIDITY</a> values keep us well above criteria level
across the region through the end of the work week. Relative
humidity is forecast to decrease to around 30 percent on Saturday
across the area for several hours, so Florida may reach red flag
criteria, but it`s too early to see ERC values, or to be certain of
what the winds will do.</pre>
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		<title>Blue Skies 58 Degrees at 1pm</title>
		<link>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/20/blue-skies-58-degrees-at-1pm/</link>
		<comments>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/20/blue-skies-58-degrees-at-1pm/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Feb 2012 19:16:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>4warnwxteam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Blue Skies 58 Degrees at 1pm, originally uploaded by wtvywxteam. Sent from my Droid.<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=4warnwxteam.com&amp;blog=13134026&amp;post=7011&amp;subd=4warnwxteam&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div style="text-align:left;padding:3px;">
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/49297467@N05/6911321021/" title="photo sharing"><img src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7065/6911321021_3ec3bd06d0.jpg" style="border:solid 2px #000000;" alt="" /></a><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size:.8em;margin-top:0;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/49297467@N05/6911321021/">Blue Skies 58 Degrees at 1pm</a>, originally uploaded by <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/49297467@N05/">wtvywxteam</a>.</span>
</div>
<p>
Sent from my Droid.</p>
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		<title>Rainfall Totals from the Weekend</title>
		<link>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/19/rainfall-totals-from-the-weekend/</link>
		<comments>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/19/rainfall-totals-from-the-weekend/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Feb 2012 05:07:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>4warnwxteam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Connor Vernon]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Pensacola  1.82&#8243; Andalusia  1.94&#8243; Albany  2.13&#8243; Pine Level  2.17&#8243; Crestview  2.51&#8243; Troy  2.74&#8243; Wicksburg  2.75&#8243; Dothan  3.25&#8243; Geneva  3.70&#8243; Marianna  4.75&#8243; Bonifay  5.00&#8243; Chipley  5.90&#8243; Biggest total we could find, from a trained spotter, was in Walton County, near Eucheeanna, Fl. (SE of De Funiak Springs), 7 inches! &#160;<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=4warnwxteam.com&amp;blog=13134026&amp;post=7006&amp;subd=4warnwxteam&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://4warnwxteam.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/childgirlkidrainumbrellachildren-b387c631c804618df784679207dc396e_h.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7008" title="child,girl,kid,rain,umbrella,children-b387c631c804618df784679207dc396e_h" src="http://4warnwxteam.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/childgirlkidrainumbrellachildren-b387c631c804618df784679207dc396e_h.jpg?w=490" alt=""   /></a></p>
<p>Pensacola  1.82&#8243;<br />
Andalusia  1.94&#8243;<br />
Albany  2.13&#8243;<br />
Pine Level  2.17&#8243;<br />
Crestview  2.51&#8243;<br />
Troy  2.74&#8243;<br />
Wicksburg  2.75&#8243;<br />
Dothan  3.25&#8243;<br />
Geneva  3.70&#8243;<br />
Marianna  4.75&#8243;<br />
Bonifay  5.00&#8243;<br />
Chipley  5.90&#8243;</p>
<p>Biggest total we could find, from a trained spotter, was in Walton County, near Eucheeanna, Fl. (SE of De Funiak Springs), 7 inches!</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>WEATHER ALERT: Flash Flood Warning</title>
		<link>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/18/weather-alert-flash-flood-warning/</link>
		<comments>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/18/weather-alert-flash-flood-warning/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Feb 2012 03:41:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>4warnwxteam</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[bulletin &#8211; eas activation requested flash flood warning National Weather Service tallahassee fl 941 PM CST sat feb 18 2012 the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a * flash flood warning for, holmes county in the panhandle of florida, jackson county in the panhandle of florida, walton county in the panhandle of florida, [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=4warnwxteam.com&amp;blog=13134026&amp;post=7005&amp;subd=4warnwxteam&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>bulletin &#8211; eas activation requested<br />
flash flood warning<br />
National Weather Service tallahassee fl<br />
941 PM CST sat feb 18 2012</p>
<p>the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a</p>
<p>* flash flood warning for,<br />
holmes county in the panhandle of florida,<br />
jackson county in the panhandle of florida,<br />
walton county in the panhandle of florida,<br />
washington county in the panhandle of florida,<br />
geneva county in southeast alabama,<br />
southern houston county in southeast alabama&#8230;</p>
<p>* until 145 AM CST</p>
<p>* at 927 PM CST, flash flooding was reported from thunderstorms over the warned area including road closures.</p>
<p>* locations in the warning include but are not limited to taylor, slocomb, samson, hartford, geneva, cottonwood, marianna,<br />
chipley and bonifay</p>
<p>additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area.</p>
<p>precautionary/preparedness actions&#8230;</p>
<p>do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. the water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. move to higher ground.</p>
<p>* report flooding or flood damage to the National Weather Service in tallahassee at (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. or, you may contact the nearest law enforcement agency or your county emergency management. they will relay your report to the National Weather Service.</p>
<p>&amp;&amp;</p>
<p>lat, lon 3099 8640 3100 8619 3119 8620 3115 8507<br />
3104 8501 3098 8501 3089 8494 3076 8492<br />
3070 8486 3060 8493 3061 8516 3057 8518<br />
3056 8548 3053 8549 3045 8620 3048 8625<br />
3047 8640</p>
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		<title>Severe weather watch in effect: Tornado Watch #32</title>
		<link>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/18/severe-weather-watch-in-effect-tornado-watch-32/</link>
		<comments>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/18/severe-weather-watch-in-effect-tornado-watch-32/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Feb 2012 01:29:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>4warnwxteam</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[WWUS62 KTAE 190128 WCNTAE WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 30/32 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 828 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012 The National Weather Service Has Issued Tornado Watch 32 Until 4 AM EST /3 AM Cst/ Sunday Which Replaces a Portion of Tornado Watch 30. The New Watch is Valid for The Following [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=4warnwxteam.com&amp;blog=13134026&amp;post=7004&amp;subd=4warnwxteam&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>WWUS62 KTAE 190128<br />
WCNTAE</p>
<p>WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 30/32<br />
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL<br />
828 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012</p>
<p>The National Weather Service Has Issued Tornado Watch 32 Until 4 AM EST /3 AM Cst/ Sunday Which Replaces a Portion of Tornado Watch 30. The New Watch is Valid for The Following Areas</p>
<p>in alabama the new watch includes 1 county</p>
<p>in southeast alabama</p>
<p>houston</p>
<p>in florida the new watch includes 10 counties</p>
<p>in north florida</p>
<p>bay calhoun franklin gadsden gulf holmes jackson liberty walton washington</p>
<p>in georgia the new watch includes 10 counties</p>
<p>in southwest georgia</p>
<p>baker calhoun clay decatur dougherty early grady miller mitchell seminole</p>
<p>this includes the cities of, albany, apalachicola, arlington, ashford, bainbridge, blakely, blountstown, bonifay, cairo,<br />
callaway, camilla, carrabelle, chattahoochee, chipley,<br />
colquitt, cottonwood, cowarts, crystal lake,<br />
de funiak springs, donalsonville, dothan, douglasville,<br />
edison, five points, fort gaines, graceville, hudson,<br />
inwood, kinsey, leary, lynn haven, lynn haven, malone,<br />
marianna, morgan, newton, panama city, pelham,<br />
port st. joe, quincy, rehobeth, sneads, sweetwater, taylor, upper grand lagoon, webb, wewahitchka and white city.</p>
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		<title>WEATHER ALERT: Severe Thunderstorm Warning</title>
		<link>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/18/weather-alert-severe-thunderstorm-warning-37/</link>
		<comments>http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/18/weather-alert-severe-thunderstorm-warning-37/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Feb 2012 00:25:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>4warnwxteam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://4warnwxteam.com/2012/02/18/weather-alert-severe-thunderstorm-warning-37/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[bulletin &#8211; eas activation requested severe thunderstorm warning National Weather Service tallahassee fl 624 PM CST sat feb 18 2012 the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a * severe thunderstorm warning for, extreme east central dale county in southeast alabama, henry county in southeast alabama, houston county in southeast alabama, southern clay county [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=4warnwxteam.com&amp;blog=13134026&amp;post=7003&amp;subd=4warnwxteam&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>bulletin &#8211; eas activation requested<br />
severe thunderstorm warning<br />
National Weather Service tallahassee fl<br />
624 PM CST sat feb 18 2012</p>
<p>the National Weather Service in tallahassee has issued a</p>
<p>* severe thunderstorm warning for,<br />
extreme east central dale county in southeast alabama,<br />
henry county in southeast alabama,<br />
houston county in southeast alabama,<br />
southern clay county in southwest georgia,<br />
early county in southwest georgia,<br />
northwestern miller county in southwest georgia&#8230;</p>
<p>* until 715 PM cst/815 PM est/</p>
<p>* at 625 PM CST, the National Weather Service has detected a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. these storms were located along a line extending from 6 miles west of abbeville to dothan to 13 miles southwest of<br />
taylor, and moving east at 45 mph.</p>
<p>* other locations in the warning include but are not limited to headland, kinsey, cowarts, webb, ashford, cottonwood,<br />
columbia and blakely</p>
<p>precautionary/preparedness actions&#8230;</p>
<p>a tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. if a tornado is spotted, act quickly and move to a place of safety in a sturdy structure, such as a small interior room.</p>
<p>&amp;&amp;</p>
<p>lat, lon 3161 8482 3122 8482 3107 8498 3107 8503<br />
3104 8501 3102 8503 3102 8549 3115 8548<br />
3121 8543 3161 8541<br />
time, mot, loc 0023Z 269Deg 40Kt 3156 8534 3121 8539<br />
3102 8560</p>
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