The full Moon has a reputation for trouble. It raises high tides, it makes dogs howl, it wakes you up in the middle of the night with beams of moonlight stealing through drapes. If a moonbeam wakes you up on the night of May 5th, 2012, you might want to get out of bed and take a look.  This May’s full Moon is a “super Moon,” as much as 14% bigger and 30% brighter than other full Moons of 2012.

The scientific term for the phenomenon is “perigee moon.” Full Moons vary in size because of the oval shape of the Moon’s orbit. The Moon follows an elliptical path around Earth with one side (“perigee”) about 50,000 km closer than the other (“apogee”).  Full Moons that occur on the perigee side of the Moon’s orbit seem extra big and bright.

Such is the case on Saturday, May 5th at 10:34 pm Central Time when the Moon reaches perigee.  Only one minute later, the Moon will line up with Earth and the sun to become brilliantly full.  The timing is almost perfect.

Okay, the Moon is 14% bigger than usual, but can you really tell the difference? It’s tricky. There are no rulers floating in the sky to measure lunar diameters. Hanging high overhead with no reference points to provide a sense of scale, one full Moon can seem much like any other.

The best time to look is when the Moon is near the horizon.  For reasons not fully understood by astronomers or psychologists, low-hanging Moons look unnaturally large when they beam through trees, buildings and other foreground objects. On May 5^th, this Moon illusion will amplify a full Moon that’s extra-big to begin with.  The swollen orb rising in the east at sunset should seem super indeed.

The majority of modern studies, however, show no correlation between the phase of the Moon and the incidence of crime, sickness, or human behavior.  The truth is, the Moon is less influential than folklore would have us believe.

It’s true that a perigee full Moon brings with it extra-high “perigean tides,” but according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration this is nothing to worry about. In most places, lunar gravity at perigee pulls tide waters only a few centimeters (an inch or so) higher than usual. Local geography can amplify the effect to about 15 centimeters (six inches)–not exactly a great flood.

Super perigee Moons are actually fairly common.  The Moon becomes full within a few hours of its closest approach to Earth about once a year on average.   The last such coincidence occurred on March 19^th, 2011, producing a full Moon that was almost 400 km closer than this one.  As usual, no trouble was reported–unless you count a midnight awakening as trouble.

If so, close the drapes on Saturday, May 5th. Otherwise, enjoy the super-moonlight.

- Thanks to Dr. Tony Phillips from http://science.nasa.gov/

Cloudy and warm with scattered showers (60%) from time-to-time. Most rainfall totals will be between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, with some thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. High near 85. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
444 AM EDT Thu May 3 2012

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)…Upper LOW is situated over
southern Alabama/Mississippi this morning with a TROUGH axis
extending southeast to the Florida Keys. Water vapor imagery
indicates a SHORTWAVE moving southeast through the central Gulf,
helping to enhance and MCS well south of Apalachicola. Another
decaying MCS is located near a weak SFC trough over the western
Panhandle into the Mobile area. This MCS is moving very slowly to
the east. Additional SCATTERED CONVECTION has begun to fire from
southeast Alabama to near Apalachicola in a zone of enhanced low-
level MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. All-in-all, a rather complex setup for
this morning.

Through today, the upper low is forecast to slowly lift
north-northeast, reaching middle Tennessee by this evening. This
should push the band of deepest moisture and large-scale lift to
the east during the day with enhanced POPS for the western half of
the forecast area. Upper RIDGE is still dominant over the eastern
half of the area, AS is evident in the 00Z PWAT GRADIENT from 1.8
inches in Slidell, to 1.3 inches in Tallahassee, to 0.9 inches in
Jacksonville. Therefore, still anticipate a sharp west to east
cut-off in the PoPs. Tricky part is nailing down exactly where the
eastern edge will be. For now, will keep CHANCE PoPs and above
roughly west of a line from Tallahassee to Albany, with LIKELY
PoPs west of a line from Tyndall AFB to Dothan. Will continue to
monitor RADAR trends through the early morning and adjust PoPs as
necessary.

Upper trough will continue to lift out to the northeast tonight
with ridging beginning to build back in from the western Gulf.
Should see overall RAINFALL coverage diminish. However, lingering
deep layer moisture will continue to contribute to ISOLATED to
scattered PoPs. Isolated PoPs will remain possible through the day
Friday with reasonable deep moisture, but minimal large-scale
forcing. With less CLOUD-cover and increased ridging, temperatures
will warm back to near 90 degrees for much of the area Friday
afternoon.

Similar conditions are expected for Saturday, with isolated
afternoon thunderstorms possible. A shortwave is forecast to dive
south towards the the South Carolina/southeast Georgia coast by
late afternoon, which could potentially enhance activity over the
eastern zones.

.LONG TERM (Saturday NIGHT through next Thursday)…Not much has
changed the past 24 hours concerning the long term OUTLOOK. The
persistent upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will
begin to eject eastward across the Upper Great Plains in a series
of JET streaks through the northern branch jet stream. The SE
United States ridge is still forecast to collapse towards Mexico.
Models continue to send a closed upper level low across Mexico
into Texas by Thursday as an open wave. The Southeast U.S. will
end up in an area of lower PRESSURE with good moisture input from
the Gulf of Mexico and greater chances for PRECIPITATION. On
Wednesday, chances for precipitation will increase when a northern
branch, late season Alberta Clipper drags a weak cold FRONT into
the Southeast U.S. Thereafter the upper level Mexican Low will
continuing moving east into the lower Mississippi valley and phase
with the Alberta Clipper which will enhance opportunities for
rainfall across the Southern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION (through 06Z Friday)…A band of light showers and RAIN
is currently moving northwest through Southeast Alabama and KDHN.
Suwannee River valley FOG is stalled further east and will not be
reaching KVLD. Nightime temperatures are a bit cooler this morning
compared to yesterady morning but are still remaining well above
Dewpoint TEMPERATURE levels. As a result, no restrictions to
visibilities are expected, however with the band of showers moving
across the area, it is likely there will be MVFR CIGS at the
aerodromes around SUNRISE this morning. Expect increased but
scattered THUNDERSTORM activity this afternnon and over night
primarly west of the Apalachicola River.

&&

.MARINE…Winds and SEAS will see an overall downward trend today
as the pressure gradient weakens over the waters. The light
southeasterly FLOW will transition to southwesterly by Saturday
as the low-level ridge axis moves south of the waters. Headlines
are anticipated through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…Increased moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
abetted by southerly winds and increasing seabreeze activity will
keep conditions above criteria the rest of the week. Relative
humidities will remain will above minimums and no Red Flag
conditions are anticipated.

Clouds increasing but still unseasonably warm.  High 88.  A slight chance (20%) for a few showers north of I-10 today… 40% south of I-10 and along the Gulf.  Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
519 AM EDT Wed May 2 2012

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...Upper RIDGE, which has kept
the weather dry and hot so far this week, will slide east today AS
a weak upper TROUGH approaches from the west. The upper trough
will tap into deep MOISTURE from the earlier trough across south
Florida and bring a CHANCE for showers and thunderstorms into
portions of the forecast area.

For today, the deepest moisture and best lift is forecast to be
over the coastal waters and panhandle zones and will paint the
highest POPS for these areas. Eastern areas will remain largely
under the influence of the upper ridge with only ISOLATED showers
expected for the Big Bend and dry conditions for south-central
Georgia. The additional moisture and CLOUD cover will also help to
moderate temperatures a FEW degrees from the lower to MID 90s of
the last several days.

A similar POP distribution is expected for Thursday as the upper
level features remain largely unchanged. Still expect a rather
sharp eastern edge to the PoP field, given the dry airmass
underneath the upper ridge.

By Friday, the upper trough will push east with upper ridging
beginning to build back in from the west. There may be enough
lingering moisture to support a few showers, so will keep isolated
PoPs in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to warm back into
the lower 90s for Friday as overall cloud cover diminishes and the
ridge begins to build back in.

.LONG TERM (Friday NIGHT through next Wednesday)...Models in FAIR
agreement this morning. An upper level pattern shift is forecast
across the U.S. The persistent upper level trough over the Pacific
Northwest will begin to eject eastward across the Upper Great
Plains in a series of JET streaks through the northern branch jet
stream. Meanwhile a rather broad deep upper level ridge that is
currently over the Southeast United States, will begin to collapse
westward towards Mexico. At the SAME time the southern branch jet
will become more ACTIVE and send a closed upper level LOW into
northern Mexico by Wednesday. For the Southeast U.S. the net
impact will be a significant weakening of the surface HIGH
PRESSURE ridge over the Western Atlantic with the surface ridge
axis shifting south into the Bahamas. This puts the Southeast U.S.
north of the ridge axis in moist return FLOW from the Gulf of
Mexico. In fact, all the models show a deep tropical moisture
plume advecting into and persisting across the area. The series of
upper level impules in the northern jet branch will try to phase
with southern branch impulses but not quite succeed. Regardless,
this puts the Southeast U.S. in an area of lower pressure with
good moisture input from the Gulf of Mexico and opportunities for
weak upper level disturbances to enchance PRECIPITATION, whether
from the northern or southern branch. In addition, increasing
southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico will allow increasing
seabreeze activity. Precipitation amounts will be limited but
anything is welcome. On Wednesday, chances for precipitation will
increase when a northern branch, late season Alberta Clipper drags
a weak cold FRONT into the Southeast U.S. Thereafter the upper
level Mexican Low will continuing moving east into Texas with more
opportunities for RAINFALL across the Southern U.S.


&&

.AVIATION (through 06z Thursday)...Suwannee River valley FOG is
developing rapidly and expanding north and west towards KVLD which
will remain in the soup the rest of the evening. However
temperatures are remaining warmer tonight than last night at the
rest of the airports, so am BACKING off the original LIFR forecast
for KTLH. But still expect some MVFR conditions around SUNRISE at
KECP, KDHN, KABY and KTLH. Opportunities for SCATTERED
thunderstorms will increase tomorrow afternoon and into the
evening hours primarily over the Florida Panhandle and Southeast
Alabama.


&&

.MARINE...Southeast winds and SEAS will remain near exercise
caution levels through today as a trough of low pressure passes
south of the waters. By late Thursday into Friday, high pressure
will build back over the region, with winds and seas dropping well
below headline criteria. Winds will shift to the west late in the
weekend, but remain on the light side.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Increased moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
abetted by southerly winds and increasing seabreeze activity will
keep conditions above criteria the rest of the week. Though
northern Florida will exceed DISPERSION and ERC thresholds this
afternoon, relative humidities will remain will above minimums and
no Red Flag conditions are anticipated.

Sunny and unseasonably warm again today. High around 92. Today’s record is 100 set in 1996. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
938 AM EDT Tue May 1 2012

.UPDATE...Marine discussion below and WWA section to add SCA.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Today and Tonight)...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE still in place over the forecast area for
today. Although not AS warm as yesterday, daytime high TEMPS will
still rise into the lower 90s in most locations this afternoon. We
also expect to see bit more cloudiness today. This is due to an
increase in boundary layer MOISTURE and an increase in convective
activity working its way up from the central Gulf of Mexico. None
of this activity is expected to move inland, but may affect
portions of the outer coastal waters. Forecast has been adjusted
slightly for CURRENT trends and to shore up some details.
However, conditions seems to be developing as forecast.

.SHORT TERM (Wednesday through Thursday)...

Into Wednesday, the upper ridge will shift east to the western
Atlantic as an upper level disturbance and surface TROUGH lift
northwest from south Florida. This system will transport a slug of
deep moisture towards the northern gulf coast. At this time, it
appears the upper ridge will be strong enough to force the best
moisture (and RAIN chances) into the Florida Panhandle and
possibly southeast Alabama. The best rain chances will be over the
water and immediate coastal areas of the panhandle through
Thursday (30-40 percent), with POPS diminishing to the north and
east.

Should see an increase in, at least, high clouds with the system,
which will help to push high temperatures back into the upper 80s
to near 90 for Wednesday and Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THRU Tuesday).

The large scale long wave pattern commences relatively amplified
with troughiness over WRN states, ridging over ERN states SWWD to
even more amplified ridge centered over Wrn Gulf, and a trough
moving over the Wrn Atlc. This leaves a weakness over NE Gulf,
however strong Carolina ridge is now projected to slide more SWWD.
At surface high just east of SRN GA with ridge axis wwd across local
region. So only a small CHANCE of rain mainly Panhandle waters and
Coast.

During the rest of period, Gulf MID-upper ridge amplifies NEWD.
This translates to rising heights and drying thru Mon before Wrn
Atlc troughiness edges SWWD backs towards local region thru end of
period. At surface, Atlc high initially shifts WWD then
progressively SEWD along with ridge axis as UPSTREAM LOW and cold
FRONT drop SEWD through the weekend. However, front remains well N
of local area although it approaches on Tues maintaining area in
warm sector. Weakening and VEERING winds will allow sea breezes to
develop and this may yield a small chance of CONVECTION each AFTN.
Models do show some deep tropical moisture advecting NWD into the
our region to commence the period, especially the GFS. However all
show that it will be shunted further SWWD than previous runs. Thus
rain will be limited as opposed to mainly variable clouds with best
chance for a THUNDERSTORM will be on Tues.

Will go SW-NE low SCT-WDLY sct POPS Thurs night then AOB 20% rest of
period. With local area in warm sector, and less moisture/clouds
projected to impact our area, both mins/MAX will remain 3-7 degrees
above average. AVG inland MIN/max is 58/84 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION [through 12z Wednesday]...
FOG and low clouds in the process of burning off this morning over
portions of southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend area.
Within an hour conditions will become VFR. Otherwise, VFR
conditions with light onshore winds will prevail thru at least
06z. Then with a little more low level moisture available, MVFR
CIGS and possibly VSBYS a good bet at all but DHN thru end of
period. Brief IFR CIGS possible again at VLD.

&&

.MARINE (Today through Saturday)...
High pressure will slide east over the next FEW days as a trough of
low pressure lifts northwest across the central and western Gulf of
Mexico. This combination will keep the GRADIENT tight over the
waters through Thursday with winds intermittently reaching headline
criteria. We will be issuing a small craft ADVISORY for our offshore
legs with this morning`s package for mainly marginal conditions with
max sustained winds around 20 KT and SEAS around 7 FT. Conditions
will improve by Friday into the weekend as high pressure builds back
over the waters.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditions will continue to drop
inland relative humidities below critical levels for one more day.
High mixing heights will also yield high dispersions. The
combination of low humidities, high dispersions and ERC over 20
will produce red flag conditions over most of inland FL this
afternoon. So a red flag WARNING has been hoisted for this area.
Although dispersions will remain high on Wednesday, the airmass will
sufficiently moisten to preclude red flag levels. Red flag
conditions are not anticipated thru the upcoming weekend.

Sunny and unseasonably warm again. Afternoon high near the record of 91 set in 1970. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1013 AM EDT Mon Apr 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
The primary weather features impacting the region`s weather for
the next FEW days will be the upper RIDGE currently parked over
the southeastern states and the upper LOW/surface TROUGH across
south Florida. The upper ridge will remain in control through
Tuesday before the upper trough slowly lifts northwest towards the
region by Wednesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM (Today and Tonight)...

This mornings upper AIR SOUNDING and observed data are indicating
that today will LIKELY see temperatures increase to 1-2 degrees
above yesterday`s HIGH temperatures. Forecast has been adjusted
some to compensate for this. Tonight, boundary layer MOISTURE just
to the east of the CWA is likely to nudge further west tonight.
This will increase the chances for FOG and STRATUS for eastern
locations in the CWA.

.SHORT TERM (Tuesday through Wednesday)...

For Tuesday, dry weather will continue. However, expect to see an
increase in high clouds AS the influence of the south Florida
trough begins to increase. This should keep high temperatures a
few degrees below Monday`s highs.

There remains considerable uncertainty as to how far north the
moisture from the upper trough will make it by Wednesday. At the
very least, expect to see an increase in POPS over the coastal
waters and adjacent inland areas. will keep PoPs over land at 30
percent or below for this forecast package.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY).
The large scale long wave pattern commences with weak troughing over
WRN states and relatively amplified ridging over ERN states. a
SHORTWAVE trough exists over the Gulf of MEX. SHORT At surface,
ridging from Atlc high EWD of GA with axis WWD to across CWA. This
yields ESE FLOW and a slowly relaxing GRADIENT. Nearest WX system is
low KS with cold FRONT SWD into TX. Latest guidance keeping upper
H85-H7 ridge centered over Carolinas and surface high stronger than
previous runs.

During the rest of period, Ern ridging transitions to a DEEPENING
trough over the eastern GOMEX thats lifts NWD across the SE region
Thurs THRU Friday nights. However strong Carolina ridge will keep
POPS low over NE third of CWA. Trough then shifts offshore to be
replaced by UPSTREAM amplifying MID-upper ridge with rising heights
and drying thru Mon. At surface, upstream low and cold front drop
SEWD dropping high SWD gradually becoming centered N of the Bahamas
through the weekend with ridge shunted SW of CWA. However, front
remains well NW of local area. Weakening and VEERING winds will
allow seabreezes to develop later in the period. So any INSTABILITY/
precip will largely induced by upper level features. Models
(especially GFS) do show deep tropical moisture advecting NWD into
the our region to commence the period but moisture begins to get
suppressed SWD as trough and associated surface front push down from
the north. Thus RAIN event (possibly prolonged and locally heavy)
should be confined to marine area and coastal FL with more clouds
than rain as you move NWD. This reflected in model PWATS.

Believe MEX a little too dry. Will go SW-NE mid SCT-WDLY sct POPS
Wed night and Thurs, wdly sct-lo sct N-S POPS Thurs night-Fri night,
then mainly NIL POP rest of period. With local area in warm sector,
both mins/MAX will remain 3-7 degrees above average, with highest
TEMPS across NW third of area. clouds may allow for some
modification each day. AVG inland MIN/max is 58/84 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION [through 12z Tuesday]...
Winds around 5 mph has prevented CIGS/VSBYS from dropping below VFR
during the predawn hours. Expect VFR conditions expected everywhere
thru around 09z Tues when MVFR CIGs expected to develop at mainly
TLH and VLD.

&&

.MARINE...

High PRESSURE and a weak gradient will remain in place
today over the waters. However, the gradient will begin to tighten
tonight as a trough of low pressure across south Florida lifts
northwest and high pressure builds off the Carolina coast. Winds
and SEAS will REACH cautionary levels and occasionally approach
Small Craft ADVISORY criteria from tonight into Wednesday as the
trough moves northwest into the central Gulf. Conditions should
improve late in the week and into the weekend as high pressure
builds back over the waters.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the
region. Expect another day of generally dry conditions with relative
HUMIDITY values nearing critical thresholds. By Tuesday, a steady
moistening trend begins which will end any fire weather concerns.
High mixing heights will lead to above average dispersions,
especially on Tuesday. Deeper moisture and rain chances will
increase Wednesday thru Friday precluding any red flag concerns.

Sunny and warm with a high of at least 86. Some areas will likely see 90 degrees. Ninties will be widespread over the weekend. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
405 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed a "plateau" of HIGH
PRESSURE across much of the FL peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
There was a cold FRONT from the Red River Valley, through TN, into
western VA. Recent vapor imagery and upper AIR data showed MEAN
longwave troughs over the eastern and western CONUS, with a RIDGE
over the Central Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday) The latest global models continue to forecast
a warm and tranquil weather pattern for our region this weekend AS
the upper level WESTERLIES retreat northward away from the area.
The aforementioned front to our north will stall across north GA and
AL this afternoon, and the latest CONVECTION Allowing Model runs do
not forecast any storms associated with this feature to make it into
our forecast area this evening. The front will lift north as a warm
front Saturday as deep layer ridging develops over the Southeast,
then shift south back to the Tennessee Valley Sunday and Monday.
Although we will get onshore boundary layer winds through the
weekend, the sea breezes will LIKELY be too diffuse (and the
TROPOSPHERE too dry and STABLE) to trigger any deep moist
convection. With mostly SUNNY skies and no RAIN, temperatures will
be above average. Based on recent forecast verification, our
forecast package will be slightly warmer than the GFS MOS (which is
warmer than the NAM MOS), and we expect highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s through this weekend. Cooler water temperatures will keep
highs in the MID 70s to around 80 degrees at the beaches.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday NIGHT through next Friday) An upper ridge will be over
the region to start the period. The ridge is now forecast to
gradually weaken by Wednesday with a LOW and associated TROUGH
developing over the Florida peninsula. The low slowly deepens
while lifting northward into south Georgia Thursday and then into
South Carolina on Friday. The GFS shows a surface low developing
near Tampa Wednesday night and tracking it slowly to the north
into our coastal waters Thursday into Friday. A SURGE of deep
layer MOISTURE is also pulled northward with this system with
showers and thunderstorms overspreading the local area from
southeast to northwest Wednesday night through Thursday and
lingering into Friday. This solution is vastly different from the
previous runs and would like some run to run consistency before
buying into it. For now will just show increasing CLOUD cover
starting mid week and CAP POPS off at 20-30% Thursday-Friday.
TEMPS will be at or above seasonal levels each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS/VSBYS are developing as expected across the Tri-State
region early this morning. VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF
sites shortly after SUNRISE with winds becoming south to southwest
around 10 knots later this morning and afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
With a rather flat pressure pattern in place, winds and SEAS will
remain below caution levels through the weekend. They will be a bit
higher near the coast during the afternoon and evening hours, as
daytime heating helps accelerate the winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns for today. For Saturday and Sunday minimum
relative humidities are expected to drop below 35 % across inland
portions of north Florida but winds and dispersions should not REACH
critical levels. Thus, no fire weather concerns at least through the
weekend.

Sunny with a high of 86… and higher highs through the weekend. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
331 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
The 04 UTC regional surface analysis showed a RIDGE across south FL
and the southeast Gulf of Mexico, providing southwest winds across
our forecast area. Recent vapor imagery and upper AIR data showed
gradually rising 500 MB heights over the Southeast, but the main
ridge axis was still near the FRONT RANGE of the Rockies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday) The latest global models forecast the upper
level WESTERLIES to retreat northward through this weekend AS deep
layer ridging develops over the Southeast. This pattern will LIKELY
keep any fronts or upper level disturbances too far away from our
region for any significant RAIN chances. The 00 UTC NCEP ARW & NMM
models forecast ISOLATED storms just north of our forecast area (in
central GA) late Friday afternoon, ahead of a weak (and stalling
backdoor cold front). If this trend continues we could add slight
rain chances to northern portions of our forecast area for Friday.
Otherwise, the deep layer ridging (and corresponding LOW CLOUD
amounts and rain chances) and increasingly more direct sun will
result in above-average temperatures, with highs in the MID to upper
80s today and Friday, upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday. Temperatures
will be about 10 degrees cooler during the day at the coast, where
water temperatures were still around 70 degrees. Lows will generally
be in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday NIGHT through next Thursday) Weak upper ridging builds
over the GOMEX and Southeastern U.S. through the extended period.
At the surface, HIGH PRESSURE centered over the northeast Gulf
Sunday and Monday will weaken as a stronger ridge builds in from
the northeast. As a result, a backdoor cold front pushes through
the Carolina`s and eastern Georgia with the front possibly
stalling just to the northeast of our CWA by 12z Tuesday. This
boundary may linger in the area through Wednesday before washing
out. Despite the proximity of the front, the lack of deep layer
MOISTURE and a building upper ridge will hinder convective
development. Will continue to keep POPS silent at 10%.
Temperatures will be above seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF cycle with
only a SCATTERING of low level clouds and CIRRUS. Expect BREEZY
south to southwest winds once again today with gusts up to 20 knots
at most sites in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Despite a rather weak pressure GRADIENT, winds and SEAS will
continue to get a boost during the afternoon and evening hours with
the daytime heating and sea breeze enhancement. Despite these
locally stronger winds, conditions are expected to remain below
caution levels through this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum relative HUMIDITY values are expected to be at or just above
35% over a very small portion of the interior Big Bend this
afternoon. So despite all other factors in place which include high
dispersions, high ERC`s and possible sustained winds of 15 mph or
higher, we do not expect Red Flag criteria to be MET. Increasing low
level moisture will negate any fire weather concerns for the next
several days.

With nothing but sunshine, our afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 80s for the first time in quite awhile today. And we’ll be pushing near record highs for this time of year by the end of the week. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
The 04 UTC regional surface analysis showed a 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER over the central Gulf of Mexico, providing west to southwest
boundary layer FLOW to our forecast area. Vapor imagery and upper
AIR data showed the anomalously deep eastern U.S. TROUGH (responsible
for our recent "chilly" temperatures) slowly lifting out to the
northeast off the MID Atlantic coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday) Deep layer ridging will slowly develop over
the Southeast through Friday, though 500 mb heights will not be
particularly high. Although we may see a slight increase in clouds
(AS opposed to their virtually complete absence today) Thursday and
Friday, there does not appear to be enough deep layer MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY, and/or synoptic scale lift for RAIN in our forecast
area. The NAM (and NAM MOS) does show a small CHANCE for rain (20-
30 percent POP) over the FL Panhandle on Friday, but this solution
is an outlier and it`s not clear what is generating this rain within
the model. With the gradually rising heights and ample late SPRING
sunshine, temperatures will bounce back to about average this
afternoon, with highs in the mid 80s inland (lower-mid 70s coast).
Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s Thursday and Friday. After one
more relatively "cool" morning today, lows will be in the 50s for
the remainder of this work week.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday) The mid-upper level flow will
be nearly zonal to start the period with a RIDGE building Sunday
through early next week. At the surface, a weak pressure pattern
will be in place with a ridge axis extending from the western
Atlantic across the Gulf and Gulf coastal states. The building
ridge along with onshore LOW level flow will ensure a continual
warming trend with minimal chances for rain. Temperatures will be
around or just above the 90 degree mark at most inland locations
beginning Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are anticipated at all terminals through the forecast
period. Southwest winds of around 12 knots with higher gusts this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Although the pressure GRADIENT will not be nearly as tight as what
we observed the past FEW days, winds will remain near 15 knots
through Thursday, especially near the coast, as daytime heating
helps enhance the onshore winds in the late afternoon and evening
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A marginal situation for Red Flag conditions today across a small
portion of north Florida. Minimum relative humidities are expected
to drop below 35% for 3 to 4 hours mainly for our inland Big Bend
zones including Calhoun and Jackson counties in the Panhandle.
Sustained winds across these areas are forecast be just under 15
mph. For these marginal situations we will lean toward not issuing
Red Flag Warnings. The Fire Weather WATCH that was in place has
been dropped. No fire weather concerns for Thursday or the
remainder of the week as low level moisture gradually increases. 

After a chilly start, sunshine will help us warm into the mid 70s. It will still be breezy at times, but early morning Wednesday will be in around 50 degrees.  Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
650 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2012

.AVIATION UPDATE...
Forecast reasoning described below has not changed with the 12z SET
of TAFs. Therefore, the discussion below remains unchanged.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...We continue to see a highly amplified long wave pattern
across North America this morning. A TROUGH extends from eastern
Canada southward to the Northwest Caribbean Sea with the axis now
east of the forecast area. Another trough is found off the Pacific
Coast. In between the two troughs, we find a massive RIDGE over the
Rockies that dominates much of the western U.S. Surface analysis
shows the cold FRONT that slipped south of the area last NIGHT now
dissipating over the northern Bahamas and western Cuba. HIGH
PRESSURE is centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The pressure
GRADIENT between this high and LOW pressure currently occluding near
Lake Ontario remains sufficiently tight to maintain a light 3-6 KT
WIND across the region with marginal SCA conditions over the Gulf.
Satellite shows clear skies across the entire southeastern U.S.
Temperatures are falling steadily through the 40s with DEW points
generally in the MID 30s. The light winds should keep TEMPS from
falling below the upper 30s across most inland areas. In many cases,
SUNRISE temperatures will be the coldest we have observed since
March 5th.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
The long wave pattern will deamplify across the U.S. during this
period. The eastern trough will lift northeast allowing the some of
the UPSTREAM ridging to work eastward. 500-MB heights over TLH will
rise from about 561 dm this morning to about 583 dm by Thursday
afternoon. The surface high to our west will build east across the
Gulf of Mexico to the FL Peninsula by Wednesday morning and then
east of the state for the remainder of the week. This will switch
our low level winds around to the southwest by late this afternoon
and these winds will persist into the weekend. The rising heights
and onshore low level FLOW will help to quickly moderate
temperatures after this morning`s chilly start. Highs today will
remain well below NORMAL (by about 6-8 degrees); however, they will
be several degrees milder than yesterday, especially across our
northern zones. There will also be less wind around today. We are
forecasting some gusts up around 20 mph this afternoon, but this
will not be enough to justified another wind ADVISORY. MIN temps
overnight will be some 10 degrees milder than this morning and by
wednesday afternoon, temps will be above normal once again with most
inland areas reaching the lower to mid 80s. Min temps Wednesday
night will once again exceed the previous night by some 8-10
degrees. This will set up a very warm day on Thursday when most
inland areas will REACH the mid to upper 80s. Even the beach
communities should recover to near 80 degrees on Thursday.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
The extended forecast for our local area will be dominated by fairly
weak, zonal flow aloft. 500mb heights are generally forecast to stay
above 5820m with less than 20m of deviation through the entire
period. With a weaker subtropical JET and the northern branch of the
jet stream staying across the northern half of the CONUS, the
forecast of slightly above-normal temperatures was maintained. The
warmest days look to be Friday and Saturday with 850mb temperatures
+15 to +17C. The should also be prior to the arrival of some deeper
MOISTURE and potentially a weak front. Highs on those two days are
forecast to be in the 88-91 degree RANGE away from the Gulf. A
combination of several factors may act to bring some slight RAIN
chances to the forecast starting late Saturday and lasting into
Tuesday: (1) large, dry low-level ANTICYCLONE currently over the NE
Gulf of Mexico will erode east into the central Atlantic. This
should set up broad SE flow across much of the Gulf and Caribbean,
and draw deeper moisture currently bottled up near the Lower Bahamas
and Hispaniola back to our area. -AND- (2) a digging SHORTWAVE from
the Great Lakes into the East Coast should push a weak cold front
close to our area, which could provide additional forcing for
increased CLOUD cover and showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
Sustained winds over the marine area are at the low end of small
craft advisory criteria and SEAS at the offshore buoys have slipped
just below 7 FT. AS high pressure builds east across the Gulf of
Mexico and low pressure over the northeastern states moves further
away, the gradient will weaken across the marine area and conditions
are forecast to drop below advisory criteria shortly. We will cancel
the advisory expire and replace it with an exercise caution
headline. Even this headline will no longer be necessary by around
sunrise. As the high passes south and then east of the area, winds
will back to the west this afternoon and tonight with southwest
winds expected from Wednesday into Friday. By the weekend, the ridge
axis will lift north a bit allowing winds to back to the south and
southeast. Wind speeds will be enhanced each afternoon near the
coast in the sea breeze.

&&

.AVIATION (THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. The
nearest cloud cover is in N AL and TN, and the ATMOSPHERE in our
local area should stay very dry over the next 24 hours. Therefore,
the focus was on trends in wind direction and speed. Individual
lines in the TAFs don`t necessarily indicate a major change in
flight category, but rather the development of gusty winds during
the daytime hours, subsiding around 23-00z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Based on the updated morning forecast, there will be many spots in
our Florida and Alabama zones close to marginal red flag conditions.
A Red Flag WARNING was inherited for Leon and Wakulla Counties based
on forecast ERC of 37 combined with 4-HR RH below 35%. This RF.W was
expanded to cover all of our Florida zones based on coordination
with WFOs MOB, JAX, and TBW. Most statistical guidance indicates at
least one hour of 13kt (15mph) winds at the available guidance
locations during the afternoon. This lines up well with our forecast
GRIDS. Additionally, DISPERSION values are forecast to be very close
to 75 (highest values near AL-FL and GA-FL border region and along
Suwannee River). Despite the marginal nature of the red flag
conditions, several other considerations increased confidence: (1)
we are at the tail end of a series of dry, WINDY days and fine fuels
have lost a lot of moisture. WFAS forecast 10-hr fuel moisture is
around 7-8% over most of the area - similar to what was observed
yesterday. -AND- (2) we are expecting a fairly long duration below
30% RH (at least 6 hours). A RF.W was also issued for our SE Alabama
zones based on 4-5 hour durations of RH at or below 25%. Minimum RH
values are very close to 25%, so this is a more marginal situation.
For our Georgia zones, forecast fuel moistures from USFS don`t dip
below 7%, so this does not meet new RF.W criteria.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
440 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2012

...BREEZY and Cooler Today with a Chilly NIGHT Coming Tonight...

.SYNOPSIS...A highly amplified pattern exists across N. America this
morning. A large RIDGE dominates the west with a DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
over the eastern U.S. Lowest heights in the trough are centered over
the Southern Appalachians. Surface analysis shows LOW PRESSURE
moving north up the MID Atlantic coast toward NYC. A cold FRONT has
pushed south of the local area and runs westward across the northern
Gulf of Mexico. HIGH pressure is centered over the Great Plains. A
tight pressure GRADIENT exists across much of the eastern U.S.
between the east coast low and plains high. This gradient brought a
WINDY day to the region on Sunday with many areas gusting over 35
mph. This gradient is maintaining sustained 5-10 KT winds during
these overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Short wave energy diving south on the west side of the upper trough
was helping to force a FEW sprinkles of light RAIN earlier in the
evening over central and northern AL. However, these have dissipated
AS have most of the clouds. This leaves the forecast area under
generally clear skies this morning. The trough will REACH its
maximum AMPLITUDE this afternoon into this evening before it begins
to gradually lift away to the northeast from tonight into Wednesday.
The surface high will drop south across the Southern Plains into the
northwest Gulf of Mexico this evening and then remain centered over
the western Gulf into Tuesday. Thereafter, the high will ridge
eastward to FL by Wednesday morning and the northern Bahamas by 00Z
Thursday.

This weather pattern will maintain FAIR conditions across the region
for the next several days. It will start out on the chilly side
today and tonight. 850-MB TEMPS will be down around +2 C today. High
temps will fail to reach 70 today north of I-10 with the northern
tier of counties peaking in the mid 60s. This should prove to be the
coolest afternoon we have observed since March 4th. While we may not
see WIND gusts quite as high as yesterday, we still anticipate
frequent gusts over 25 mph (per the latest BUFKIT data) and another
wind ADVISORY will be issued. The NW FLOW is sufficiently onshore
along the coast of the ST. Joseph Peninsula (in Gulf County) that
there will remain a moderate risk for rip currents along that part
of the coast.

Lows tonight will drop below 40 for the first time since March 5th.
With the winds staying up a bit, we did not buy into the cold MET
numbers which actually showed a few spots in the Suwannee Valley
reaching freezing. We will show most inland areas dropping into the
upper 30s with mid 30s in the normally coldest spots. Coastal areas
will see mid 40s. Because temps will be marginal and we expect the
wind to be maintain at a few knots overnight, FROST is not being
included in the forecast at this time.

As the upper trough lifts away and the surface ridge slides south of
the area, a moderating trend in temps will commence on Tuesday.
While it will remain cooler than NORMAL, temps will rise several
degrees higher than today with most areas seeing lower to mid 70s.
Coolest temps Tuesday night will be in the mid 40s over the Suwannee
Valley with most areas in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Wednesday afternoon will be back to normal if not a degree or two
above. Look for lower to mid 80s away from the coast.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
The flow pattern will be evolving from a highly amplified one in the
short term period (discussed above) to a more zonal pattern in the
extended RANGE with a more ACTIVE northern JET stream. Therefore,
dry weather with a warming trend is the main story beyond Wednesday.
From Wednesday afternoon to Friday afternoon, GFS forecast 500mb
heights rise from about 5770m to 5850m, or a +80 meter trend over a
span of just 48 hours. The building ridge and increasing low-level
WAA should contribute to a return to above normal temperatures.
ECMWF MOS and MEX MOS show highs in the upper 80s to around 90
returning as early as Friday and lasting into the weekend ahead of
an approaching front. HPC Guidance also indicated some low 90s this
weekend, above MOS trends for the past several runs. This certainly
seems within the realm of possibility, so highs for Friday-Saturday
were boosted to 87-90F for now. The GFS and GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN both
indicate the approach of a front from the northwest later on Sunday,
while the ECMWF lags the front into early next week. With almost no
mid-upper level HEIGHT falls this far south and the zonal flow
pattern persisting, it may be difficult to get the cold front this
far south. To account for the scenario projected by the GFS, some
POPS were included Sunday into Monday with slightly cooler
temperatures. However, given uncertainty and some weight given to
the ECMWF, PoPs were capped in the slight CHANCE range and high
temperatures were kept in the mid-upper 80s.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
After peaking around 10 FT at the offshore buoys, SEAS have begun to
settle a bit and are now around 8 ft at the buoys. Winds will remain
elevated this morning and then slacken a bit this afternoon. Wind
speeds are forecast to return to around 20 kt overnight. We
therefore extended the SCA until 09Z Tuesday. As high pressure
builds west and then south of the area, winds will shift to the west
and drop below headline criteria. Wind speeds will be enhanced over
the nearshore legs due to the sea breeze each afternoon from Tuesday
through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)...
The main focus for this TAF cycle was on wind direction and speed.
Although there are a few patches of mid-level clouds currently over
TN/N AL, these are not expected to influence the local area much.
Most varieties of statistical guidance show strong northwest winds
14-01z with GUST potential to 25-30kt at all terminals. VFR will
prevail otherwise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With a dry AIR mass firmly entrenched across the Southeast region,
there should be active fire weather concerns for the next several
days. For today, minimum RH is generally forecast to be 25-30%
across the entire forecast area - which puts us within reach of
Florida red flag criteria, but not Alabama or Georgia. A Red Flag
WARNING for today was already inherited for all of our Florida
zones, and this was maintained. The only change was to tack an hour
on to the warning at the beginning and end to account for a longer
duration of RH below 35%. It looks like all the Florida red flag
criteria may be met today, including high dispersions, winds of at
least 15 mph, and at least a few zones should hit ERC of 35.

For Tuesday, minimum RH is forecast to be lower (20-25% areawide).
We have opted to issue a Fire Weather WATCH for all of our Florida
zones given the very low RH, high forecast dispersions, winds
approaching 15 mph, and another day of drying fuels. Alabama
criteria requires either 4hr duration of <25% RH (not LIKELY) or 20
mph winds with low RH (also not expected). Meanwhile, some of our
Georgia zones may be able to hit 15 mph winds with RH at or below
25%. It is uncertain whether or not the fuel MOISTURE component will
be met in GA though, so no watch was issued there. However, WFAS
forecast 10-HR fuel moisture for Monday shows considerable drying
with some areas of 7-8% showing up in SW GA (criteria is 6%).
Therefore, it is possible a RFW will be needed eventually.

Very windy today! Gusts to 30 mph from time-to-time. Nice and cool with highs only in the upper 60s. Turning cooler overnight with some early morning lows in the upper 30s on Tuesday!

CNN weather guy, Rob Marciano, got this one-of-a-kind picture taken while he
was on location near Cherokee, Oklahoma over the weekend!

It was snapped by his producer, Brandon Miller – whom he will never forget!

Windy and mild with a high of 75.  Clear and breezy overnight with a Friday morning low of 45.  Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2012


.SYNOPSIS and Short Term (Rest of tonight through Saturday)...
The SFC Cold FRONT continues to push southward through the CWA into the
Coastal Waters tonight, with cooler and drier AIR filtering in from
the north. Skies are generally partly CLOUDY, and dewpoints continue
to FALL from the 40s to the 30s from south to north. Therefore,
overnight LOW TEMPS will be highly dependent on boundary layer
decoupling, with lows expected to drop into the 40s where winds
become light or near CALM. Over the Coastal Waters, still expect the
NE SURGE to stay at around 15 KTS or less, so no headlines should be
needed for the near future. For today, HIGH Temps should be a bit
cooler than on Wed. AFTN, with a north-south GRADIENT ranging from
the lower to MID 70s to around 80 over the SE FL Big Bend.

After another fairly cool and dry NIGHT tonight, the projected
gradual warmup should begin on Friday and continue through the
weekend, with temps once again rising to above NORMAL levels, with
some middle 80s possible by Saturday Afternoon. Also, by later on
Friday and Saturday, AS Sfc and Transport winds shift to the NE to
ENE, we will have to keep a close EYE on the very large WILDFIRE to
our east. Although it highly unlikely for the fire to spread
eastward or "spot" into our CWA, the transport of SMOKE could once
again become a significant problem and will need to be monitored.

&&

.Long Term (Saturday night through next Thursday)...Deep layer
ridging remains in place through Monday then slides east as the next
TROUGH and associated cold front approaches and pushes into our area
Tuesday through Wednesday. The front will be weakening but should
still bring SCATTERED showers and thunderstorms to our region both
Tuesday and Wednesday. Then, a slight CHANCE of a FEW lingering
showers Thursday morning mainly over the eastern sections with drier
air filtering in across our western zones. Temperatures will be
above seasonal levels through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR under clear skies are expected throughout the TAF
cycle. Winds will shift to the north north-northeast today.
Therefore smoke from the County Line fire in Baker County should not
be an issue at any of our TAF sites.


&&

.MARINE...Winds and SEAS will get a slight bump overnight into this
morning due a light to moderate northeasterly surge, but should
still remain below cautionary levels. Then, after a lull through
Friday, a rather extended  period of cautionary to near Small Craft
ADVISORY levels will begin later on Friday Night and may last
through much of the weekend as the PRESSURE gradient tightens
across the Marine Area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DISPERSION values are forecast to be above 75 over a
large area of northwest Florida this afternoon coincident with
relative HUMIDITY values below 35 percent. ERC values are also high,
so a Red Flag WARNING is in effect for all of the Florida Panhandle
and Big bend today. Elsewhere, long durations of low relative
humidity below 25 percent are expected across southeast Alabama
today, so a Red Flag Warning is in effect for there as well.
Although the airmass will be just as dry across southwest Georgia,
fuel MOISTURE and winds not not meet Red Flag criteria. For Friday
the combination of long durations of low relative humidity along
with high ERC values may result in Red Flag conditions across a
large portion of interior north Florida.
 

Sunny and very breezy with a high of 76.  Much cooler overnight with Thursday morning lows in the mid 40s!  Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2012


.SYNOPSIS and Short Term (Rest of Tonight through Friday)...
Except for areas well off to our west (over parts of LA and MS), a dry Cold
FRONT continues to push steadily southeastward towards our CWA
overnight. It is accompanied by SCT-BKN VFR level clouds, with a
bonified shot of much cooler and drier AIR advecting in behind it.
This front should be on our doorstep (in Tallahassee) close to
SUNRISE, with cool and dry air ADVECTION dominating the CWA for the
rest of the day on Wed. With this in mind, HIGH TEMPS will be hard
pressed to get out of the MID 70s North, to around 80 to the South.
This should SET the STAGE for a mostly clear and quite cool NIGHT
across the region, but final LOW Temps on Thursday morning will be
tricky, and highly dependent on how much the SFC winds diminish
before sunrise.

For Thursday, we may see our coolest Highs in quite some time in
this unusually warm SPRING, AS temps will really struggle to climb
into the 70s across the entire CWA. With light winds more LIKELY on
Thu. Night, we could see temps a FEW degrees cooler in the 40s than
Wed. Night, although there are some fairly large differences between
the cooler MET and warmer MAV guidance. Will plan on an adjusted
blend for now (including Gridded MOS), and hope the guidance comes
into better agreement before long.

By Friday, with the Sfc RIDGE moving offshore, and Upper Level
Ridging beginning to develop off to our west, we should begin a slow
warming trend, which will be enhanced significantly over the
upcoming weekend as the Upper Ridge Builds in overhead and continues
to strengthen.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through next Wednesday)...
An upper level ridge will build into the region over the weekend
and then move east Monday through Wednesday as a TROUGH moves east
across the CONUS. Surface high PRESSURE will move off the mid
Atlantic coast Friday night and slowly drop to the southeast over
the weekend and early next week. The high will then push off to the
east by midweek allowing a cold front to advance into our area late
Tuesday into Wednesday. The extended period will be dry until either
late Tuesday or Wednesday associated with the cold front.
Temperatures will be near or above seasonal levels through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue to prevail throughout the
forecast period. A cold front will pass through the region around or
just after daybreak with winds shifting to north-northeast and gusty
at times during day.
&&

.MARINE...As the Sfc Cold Front gradually moves through the Coastal
Waters today winds should remain generally around 10 knots with a
northerly component. While we are still expecting a northeasterly
WIND SURGE tonight into Thursday, it now appears that winds should
peak around the 15 KNOT RANGE, or just below cautionary levels.
Also, although another easterly surge is expected for Thursday night
into Friday, this one should be even weaker, generally in the 10 to
15 knot range. However, once the Surface Ridge of High Pressure to
our north moves offshore over the weekend, the tightening pressure
GRADIENT will likely be strong enough to support at least cautionary
if not Small Craft ADVISORY Levels at that time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dispersions are forecast to be above 75 across the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon. This combined with
relative HUMIDITY values below 35 percent and ERC values above 20
will lead to Red Flag conditions today. It will be just as dry
across our southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia counties but Red
Flag criteria is not expected to be met. Red Flag criteria may be
met Thursday across southeast Alabama and north Florida and a WATCH
will be in effect.

Sunny and mild with a high of 82.  Keep your eyes open for unattended grass fires and let the authorities know if you see one.  Here’s the NWS discussion for the rest of the week:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
535 AM EDT Tue Apr 10 2012

Updated Aviation Discussion for 12 UTC Cycle.

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...Already amplified upper
pattern is forecast to amplify further through Thursday AS the
TROUGH over the eastern CONUS sharpens and digs into the deep
south. The digging trough will push a cold FRONT across the
region on Wednesday, which will usher in significantly cooler
airmass for the end of the week. The front is expected to be
MOISTURE starved with little CHANCE of precip.

Ahead of the front Today, temperatures will be mild with highs in
the lower to MID 80s. Temperatures will drop back a degree or two
for Wednesday as the front moves through. By Thursday, HIGH
temperatures are expected to remain in the lower to mid 70s across
the region, roughly 10 degrees lower than the expected highs for
today. This will follow lows in the lower to mid 40s (and possibly
FEW upper 30s in SE Alabama) Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM (Friday through next Tuesday)...After the next
sharpening Upper Level TROF passes through the SE U.S. (with a
dry Cold Front) on Wednesday NIGHT and Thursday morning, an
unseasonably cool RIDGE of High PRESSURE will Build into the
region from the northwest. While the Bulk of the cool AIR will
impact our area before the extended period begins, Thursday Night
and Friday should still be below NORMAL (with lows in the 40s on
Thursday Night and highs approaching the Upper 70s on Friday.
Thereafter, the SFC Ridge is expected to move offshore over the
weekend and early next week giving us return FLOW, while at the
SAME time Upper Level Ridging will be building in over the area.
This should give us a net result of a return back to our seemingly
"usual" above normal TEMPS, with Highs surging once again into the
Mid 80s by the end of the weekend and early next week. The one
limiting factor this occasion may be the return flow off the Gulf,
which may be strong enough at lower levels to keep MAX TS from
reaching the Upper 80s or Lower 90s which we saw earlier in the
month of April. Finally, this should be a dry FCST, with some
potential for RAINFALL beyond the time frame of this CURRENT fcst
cycle.


&&

.Aviation...Despite a persistent 3-4 degree TEMP/Dewpoint Spread
throughout the night and a recent influx of SCT-BKN CIRRUS during
the past few hours...the VLD terminal has nonetheless dropped to
MVFR levels with tempo IFR VIS restrictions after 0630 UTC
overnight. Perhaps their proximity to the WILDFIRE to the east is
creating these restrictions which should lift or burn off by 14 UTC.
Elsewhere...VFR conditions (with just some more cirrus) continue
unabated...and should do so for the remainder of today and much of
tonight. Despite not being fcst by any of the usually reliable
HI-Res Guidance...VLD could prove challenging once again for Tues.
night. Therefore...may add a 5SM Vis group from 08 to 12 UTC until a
better handle on the situation can be made.

&&

.MARINE...High pressure in place over the waters today will keep
winds and SEAS minimal. A cold front will cross the waters on
Wednesday with relatively strong high pressure building in its
WAKE. This will push winds to, at least, cautionary levels
Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds will diminish by late
Thursday and become easterly into the weekend as high pressure
settles north of the region.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...With the current GRIDS coming in a bit drier than
earlier fcst, we now have 4+ HRS of Sub-25 percent RH across SE AL
this afternoon. Therefore, will hoist a Red Flag WARNING, and keep
the current Warning for Leon County FL, for several hours below 35
percent RH combined with a fcst ERC of 35. Although much of SW and
SC GA will also be below 25 percent RH for 4+ hours today, fcst
fuel moistures are above 6%, so no hazard will be necessary at
this time. On Wednesday, conditions will not be quite as dry, but
with fcst Dispersions now expected to be 75 or higher, coincident
with several hours of below 35 percent RH, will plan on a fairly
large Fire Weather WATCH for much of the Florida Big Bend and
Panhandle.

Sunny and mild with a high of 82.  Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
346 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2012


.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
The upper level pattern across the U.S. is beginning its
transition to a much more amplified pattern. Currently, much of
the western part of the country is dominated by ridging, with the
exception being the Pacific Northwest, where a large upper LOW is
is spinning along the eastern Pacific coastline. Across the
eastern part of the country, a broad TROUGH is beginning to
amplify AS an upper-level PV ANOMALY dives out of Canada, south
across the Midwest. At the base of this trough exists a weak
SHORTWAVE that will act to push a corresponding weak FRONT across
the local area this afternoon. Weak upper level support, bolstered
by rather dry conditions near the surface will severely limit any
CHANCE for showers this afternoon. For that reason, will carry
only 10% POP`s across portions of north Florida today since a
stray, quick hitting SHOWER cannot be completely ruled out.

Before the parent east coast trough amplifies enough to affect the
local area, we will remain dry with highs in the lower to middle
80s both today and tomorrow. Overnight lows are forecast to FALL
into the lower to middle 50s (inland) each evening.

By Wednesday, the trough will have amplified enough to force a
slightly stronger front across the region. Again, not much RAIN is
forecast with this passage. In fact, the CURRENT forecast only
carries meaningful PoP`s across the north eastern Gulf of Mexico and
does not include any land areas. The main effect this front will
have on our area will be to lower temperatures for the remainder of
the week. Highs on Wednesday will RANGE from the lower 70s across
Alabama and Georgia, to middle and upper 70s across north Florida.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday NIGHT through next Monday)...
Guidance is in rather good agreement with the large scale pattern
during the extended period. The period begins with an amplified
pattern across the CONUS, consisting of deep troughs along each
coast and a RIDGE over the CENTER of the country. The the end of
the week and into the week, the overall pattern remains amplified
but shifts to the east, with the ridge ending up centered over the
southeastern states.

For the local forecast area, the end of the work week will be
characterized by northwest FLOW aloft and slightly below NORMAL
(yes, below normal) temperatures, as cool HIGH PRESSURE slides in
behind a Wednesday night dry frontal passage. Morning temperatures
may drop into the lower 40s for Thursday and Friday.

By the weekend, the building ridge will begin to assert itself, with
temperatures rising back to near normal and then above normal levels
by next Monday.

The combination of dry northwest flow, followed by a building ridge,
will not be conducive for any significant precip through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast period as
a weak cold front pushes across the region. The northwest to west
winds will keep SMOKE from the northeast Florida fire well to the
south and east.

&&

.MARINE...
With all surface pressure centers located across the northern half
of the country, our local waters reside in an area of relatively
high pressure with CALM winds and SEAS. An almost un-noticeable
surface front will enter our coastal waters later tonight, with
winds and seas remaining well below headline criteria. On
Wednesday, another weak front is forecast to REACH the northern
Gulf of Mexico, bringing with it the possibility of cautionary
winds through Thursday morning as high pressure builds in behind
the front. Calm winds and seas return on Thursday with the next
chance for headline conditions forecast for next weekend in
NOCTURNAL easterly WIND surges.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Despite the low relative HUMIDITY values and very deep mixed-
layers expected this afternoon, forecast transport winds are
forecast to be very low (on the order of 5 knots). This keeps
DISPERSION values in the 40s and 50s this afternoon. In addition,
forecast ERC values are in the 20s to lower 30s. With these
expected conditions not meeting Red Flag criteria for Florida,
will drop the current Red Flag WARNING with the morning issuance.
Similar conditions are expected for Tuesday with deep mixing
layers, but low transport winds. Therefore, no headlines are
needed at the moment.

Sunny and breezy with a high of 76.  A little cooler overnight with a low of 48 for Saturday morning. Here’s the NWS discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
623 AM EDT Fri Apr 6 2012

Updated for 12z aviation discussion.


...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ON TAP THRU THE WEEKEND...

The last weakening line of showers associated with the cold FRONT
was moving ESE across the coastal counties during the overnight hours
before exiting east of I-75 soon after SUNRISE.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
The large scale amplified blocking longwave pattern persists. This
is highlighted by ridging over CNTRL CONUS anchored by deep
troughing over Great BASIN and split troughing over ERN states with
a 550dm LOW and H5/H2 vort MAX across Cntrl GA overnight.

The WRN TROUGH will move EWD to REACH NRN HIGH Plains today. In
response, DOWNSTREAM RIDGE shunted ewd to Wrn Great Lakes and Wrn
most Gulf while the Ern branches of Ern trough phase into a
pronounced long wave trough. Assocd SHORTWAVE dives around the base
of trough which pushes it into the Wrn Atlc, while low opens up into
a wave along backside of this trough over SE GA coast, both this
morning. In its WAKE. WNW steering FLOW and gradually rising heights
will dominate local area next FEW days, but because Ern trough is
moving fairly rapidly, impact of shortwave on driving cold AIR into
CWA will be limited. By Sun, formerly Wrn trough becomes negatively
tilted with axis from Nrn Plains to Upper Great Lakes, downstream
ridge shifts ewd to dominate Ern states.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
During the predawn hours, low located across SE SC with trailing
cold front/low level trough SWD across FL Big Bend AS marked by
showers noted above. This is clearly delineated by by regional OBS
which show TEMPS/DEW points low 70s/MID 60s along and ahead of
front, dropping to mid 50s/upper 40s across Wrn AL. As above
vort/shortwave continue to move SEWD, low moves off SE SC/NE GA
Coast dragging cold front S/E of CWA by sunrise. A second low level
trough will swing swd thru area later today and this will bring a
brief increase in clouds maybe a sprinkle or two but mainly a marked
increase in offshore winds and gusts near this boundary.

In the wake of the front, high PRESSURE will build SSE from upper MS
River Valley to across entire SE region by SAT. As a result, much
cooler and drier air will advect in from the NW beginning later
today and this will dominate local weather thru the upcoming
weekend. Another, weak reinforcing front will move SE through the
region Sunday afternoon and evening. Expect temperatures next few
days to finally settle to more typical springtime levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A slight CHANCE of lingering showers across SE most Big Bend and
adjacent waters initial hours of today. Otherwise, no POPS thru
weekend.

TODAY...Some brief FOG possible near departing showers early. The
strong GRADIENT between the departing low and building UPSTREAM high
will produce occasional BREEZY and gusty conditions. Highs low 70s
SE AL/SW GA to 80 SE Big Bend and at coasts

TONIGHT...With any residual clouds ejecting Ewd, lows drop to mid
40s north to low 50s coast.

SATURDAY...SUNNY. Highs in mid 70s.

SATURDAY NIGHT...High pressure just north of area will provide
clear skies and good radiational cooling prompting the coolest
temperatures of this SPRING. Lows from low-mid 40s inland to 50 at
coast.

SUNDAY...Highs around 70 coast to mid 70s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through next Friday)...For the most part,
the amplified large scale pattern is forecast to remain relatively
unchanged through most of next week, with ridging over the plains
states and trough along the east and west coasts. The main
uncertainty is how amplified the pattern will be, which will control
how warm/cool temperatures are next week. The 12Z ECMWF is the more
amplified solution, with the 00Z GFS less so. With no real feel for
better solution, have gone a bit below the MEX MOS numbers for the
extended period. Overall, this keep temps at, or just slightly
above, CLIMO for this time of YEAR.

With either solution, RAIN chances will be slim for much of the
week. There are hints that a southeastward moving shortwave could
trigger a few showers on Monday, especially over the western zones.
Have added a slight chance POP for this possibility.

By the end of the week, the GFS deamplifies the pattern more
significantly along the Gulf coast, which allows for increased rain
chances. However, with the considerable uncertainty at this RANGE,
will only have slight chance PoPs in the forecast for Thursday night
into Friday.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Winds will continue to shift to offshore behind a cold front during
the predawn hours, and increase to exercise caution levels this
morning. There will be some decrease in WIND speeds this afternoon.
However, a secondary or reinforcing cold front will cross the region
late in the day switching winds to the northeast and increasing them
to ADVISORY levels tonight into Saturday morning. Winds and SEAS
will then decrease to below headline criteria by Saturday afternoon
as high pressure settles south over the marine area. The high will
then settle south of the area switching winds to onshore and keeping
them light.

&&

.AVIATION (through 12Z Saturday)...Cold front has pushed past all
terminals this morning. Some lingering low clouds may bring a brief
period of IFR cigs to KABY and KDHN early this morning. Otherwise,
expect gusty north to northeast winds and VFR conditions through
the remainder of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A drier air mass will filter into the region for
today, and even more so for Saturday. However, RH values are
forecast to remain well above critical levels today. While RH values
will FALL well into the 20s for Saturday, winds and ERC values are
LIKELY to remain below thresholds. Therefore, no fire weather
headlines are necessary at this time.