You are currently browsing the monthly archive for June 2011.
Dothan’s 101 broke the old record of 100 for June 14th.
Another record-breaker is expected for Wednesday.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 904 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2011 HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT .BR TAE 0614 E DH20/TAIRZX/DH20/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE :AS OF 8PM EDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : TLH : TALLAHASSEE : 103 / 75 / 0.00 AAF : APALACHICOLA : 97 / 74 / 0.00 40J : PERRY : 99 / 75 / 0.00 CTY : CROSS CITY : 99 / 73 / 0.06 JAX : JACKSONVILLE INTL : 96 / 68 / 0.73 ABY : ALBANY : 101 / 71 / 0.00 VAD : MOODY AFB : 100 / 74 / 0.00 VLD : VALDOSTA : 104 / 72 / 0.00 BGE : BAINBRIDGE : 100 / 73 / BIJ : BLAKELY : 97 / 70 / MGR : MOULTRIE : 99 / 73 / TMA : TIFTON : 97 / 73 / TVI : THOMASVILLE : 99 / 73 / : .END .BR TAE 0614 C DH19/TAIRZX/DH19/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ : :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE :AS OF 7PM CDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : ECP : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT : 100 / 73 / 0.00 PAM : TYNDALL AFB : 94 / 81 / 0.00 VPS : EGLIN AFB : 95 / 76 / 0.00 CEW : CRESTVIEW : 100 / 72 / 0.00 PNS : PENSACOLA : 96 / 71 / 0.05 MAI : MARIANNA : 104 / 73 / 0.00 MOB : MOBILE : 99 / 70 / 0.00 DHN : DOTHAN : 101 / 73 / 0.00 OZR : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD : 100 / 71 / 0.00 LOR : FT RUCKER HELIPORT : 102 / 69 / 0.00
All of the SW Georgia, SE Alabama and NW Florida are under extreme drought conditions. Portions of Southwest Gorgia and portions of Henry and Houston County Alabama have now been upgraded to Exceptional, the highest level of the US Drought Monitor. Farm agencies of Early County are now seeking federal farm aid, becuase they are forcasting total crop loss to non-irrigated farm land.
According to local Agriculture extension agents across the Wiregrass, the growing season has already been delayed one month, and several farmers have had to completely replant crops. Sunday afternoon much of the Wiregrass received between .75″-1.5″ of rainfall, but this does not even chip the iceburg, so to speak.
At this point of the season, it would take a Tropical disturbance to put even a dent in this devastating situation.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 829 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2011 HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT .BR TAE 0613 E DH20/TAIRZX/DH20/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE :AS OF 8PM EDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : TLH : TALLAHASSEE : 102 / 72 / T AAF : APALACHICOLA : 93 / 77 / 0.17 40J : PERRY : 95 / 73 / 0.02 CTY : CROSS CITY : 95 / 71 / 0.00 JAX : JACKSONVILLE INTL : 97 / 73 / 0.57 ABY : ALBANY : 104 / 72 / 0.00 VAD : MOODY AFB : 101 / 74 / 0.00 VLD : VALDOSTA : 105 / 74 / 0.19 BGE : BAINBRIDGE : 100 / 73 / BIJ : BLAKELY : 99 / 68 / MGR : MOULTRIE : 100 / 73 / TMA : TIFTON : 99 / 73 / TVI : THOMASVILLE : 99 / 72 / : .END .BR TAE 0613 C DH19/TAIRZX/DH19/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ : :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE :AS OF 7PM CDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : ECP : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT : 97 / 75 / 0.14 PAM : TYNDALL AFB : 90 / 78 / 0.06 VPS : EGLIN AFB : 94 / 77 / 0.10 CEW : CRESTVIEW : 100 / 71 / 0.47 PNS : PENSACOLA : 96 / 77 / 0.00 MAI : MARIANNA : 105 / 74 / T MOB : MOBILE : 100 / 73 / 0.56 DHN : DOTHAN : 101 / 73 / 0.00 OZR : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD : 100 / 70 / 0.00 LOR : FT RUCKER HELIPORT : 103 / 68 / 0.00
I’m taking a little liberty here and posting a very enlightening article about an activity most of us enjoy when the weather is hot.
Swimming – that is, at least jumping into a pool, stream or heading to the beach.
It can be a highly enjoyable activity, but obviously there’s an danger – drowning.
As a LONG AGO lifeguard and water safety instructor, I found the following article and medical information profoundly enlightening.
Please – FOR THE SAFETY OF YOURSELF, FAMILY AND FRIENDS – I urge you to read and remember it.
I want all your water and swimming activities to be cherished as happy events.
DON’T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN!
The last time I checked –
NEARLY 90% OF ALL DROWNINGS OCCUR IN UNSUPERVISED AREAS ( NO LIFEGUARDS PRESENT ).
Please realize non swimmers are not the only victims – sometimes ‘good’ swimmers either overestimate their abilities or get themselves in unforeseen trouble. Sometimes the unforeseen trouble is coming to the rescue of a non swimmer who is in trouble.
The process of drowning is not as obvious as you may think……
Drowning Doesn’t Look Like Drowning
by Mario Vittone (May 3, 2010)
The new captain jumped from the deck, fully dressed, and sprinted through the water. A former lifeguard, he kept his eyes on his victim as he headed straight for the couple swimming between their anchored sportfisher and the beach. “I think he thinks you’re drowning,” the husband said to his wife. They had been splashing each other and she had screamed but now they were just standing, neck-deep on the sand bar. “We’re fine, what is he doing?” she asked, a little annoyed. “We’re fine!” the husband yelled, waving him off, but his captain kept swimming hard.
”Move!” he barked as he sprinted between the stunned owners. Directly behind them, not ten feet away, their nine-year-old daughter was drowning. Safely above the surface in the arms of the captain, she burst into tears, “Daddy!”
How did this captain know – from fifty feet away – what the father couldn’t recognize from just ten?
Drowning is not the violent, splashing, call for help that most people expect. The captain was trained to recognize drowning by experts and years of experience. The father, on the other hand, had learned what drowning looks like by watching television.
If you spend time on or near the water (hint: that’s all of us) then you should make sure that you and your crew knows what to look for whenever people enter the water. Until she cried a tearful, “Daddy,” she hadn’t made a sound. As a former Coast Guard rescue swimmer, I wasn’t surprised at all by this story.
Drowning is almost always a deceptively quiet event. The waving, splashing, and yelling that dramatic conditioning (television) prepares us to look for, is rarely seen in real life.
The Instinctive Drowning Response – so named by Francesco A. Pia, Ph.D., is what people do to avoid actual or perceived suffocation in the water. And it does not look like most people expect.
There is very little splashing, no waving, and no yelling or calls for help of any kind. To get an idea of just how quiet and undramatic from the surface drowning can be, consider this: It is the number two cause of accidental death in children, age 15 and under (just behind vehicle accidents) – of the approximately 750 children who will drown next year, about 375 of them will do so within 25 yards of a parent or other adult.
In ten percent of those drownings, the adult will actually watch them do it, having no idea it is happening (source: CDC). Drowning does not look like drowning – Dr. Pia, in an article in the Coast Guard’s On Scene Magazine, described the instinctive drowning response like this:
- Except in rare circumstances, drowning people are physiologically unable to call out for help. The respiratory system was designed for breathing. Speech is the secondary or overlaid function. Breathing must be fulfilled, before speech occurs.
- Drowning people’s mouths alternately sink below and reappear above the surface of the water. The mouths of drowning people are not above the surface of the water long enough for them to exhale, inhale, and call out for help. When the drowning people’s mouths are above the surface, they exhale and inhale quickly as their mouths start to sink below the surface of the water.
- Drowning people cannot wave for help. Nature instinctively forces them to extend their arms laterally and press down on the water’s surface. Pressing down on the surface of the water, permits drowning people to leverage their bodies so they can lift their mouths out of the water to breathe.
- Throughout the Instinctive Drowning Response, drowning people cannot voluntarily control their arm movements. Physiologically, drowning people who are struggling on the surface of the water cannot stop drowning and perform voluntary movements such as waving for help, moving toward a rescuer, or reaching out for a piece of rescue equipment.
- From beginning to end of the Instinctive Drowning Response people’s bodies remain upright in the water, with no evidence of a supporting kick. Unless rescued by a trained lifeguard, these drowning people can only struggle on the surface of the water from 20 to 60 seconds before submersion occurs.
(Source: On Scene Magazine: Fall 2006 (page 14))
This doesn’t mean that a person that is yelling for help and thrashing isn’t in real trouble – they are experiencing aquatic distress. Not always present before the instinctive drowning response, aquatic distress doesn’t last long – but unlike true drowning, these victims can still assist in their own rescue. They can grab lifelines, throw rings, etc.
Look for these other signs of drowning when persons are in the water:
- Head low in the water, mouth at water level
- Head tilted back with mouth open
- Eyes glassy and empty, unable to focus
- Eyes closed
- Hair over forehead or eyes
- Not using legs – Vertical
- Hyperventilating or gasping
- Trying to swim in a particular direction but not making headway
- Trying to roll over on the back
- Appear to be climbing an invisible ladder.
So if a crew member falls overboard and everything looks OK – don’t be too sure. Sometimes the most common indication that someone is drowning is that they don’t look like they’re drowning.
They may just look like they are treading water and looking up at the deck. One way to be sure? Ask them, “Are you alright?” If they can answer at all – they probably are. If they return a blank stare, you may have less than 30 seconds to get to them.
And parents – children playing in the water make noise. When they get quiet, you get to them and find out why.
(The above article is available in several languages and an audio version at
About Mario Vittone…
Mario Vittone has nineteen years of combined military service in the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard. His writing on maritime safety has appeared in Yachting, Salt Water Sportsman, On Scene, Lifelines, and at theNavalSafetyCenter’s Online Resource Site. He has also written for Reader’s Digest magazine. He has lectured extensively on topics ranging from leadership and innovation to sea survival and immersion hypothermia.
Mario worked as an Aviation Survival Technician and helicopter rescue swimmer for the U.S. Coast Guard inNew Orleans,LAand Elizabeth City, NC, flying on hundreds of search and rescue cases. He is currently working as a Marine Safety Specialist with Coast Guard Sector Hampton Roads inNorfolk,VA.
The following is from a doctor about the process of drowning…
Dr. Heidi Dalton, chief of critical-care medicine at Phoenix Children’s Hospital, explains what can happen when a child is drowning:
When infants or small children fall into the water, they have a strong reflex action to not get water into their lungs. They often will flail their arms and fight to resurface. They will flail to the point of exhaustion, to where they are forced to take a breath because their body senses they don’t have enough oxygen. They experience a sensation of suffocating.
As they start to sink, the drive to breathe kicks in, probably the biggest response the body has. The children may gulp water. They will pass out. Losing consciousness comes from not having enough oxygen circulating in the blood. Young children tend to store less oxygen in the bloodstream, so they may pass out more quickly than those children who are older.
As the brain and blood continue to be deprived of circulating oxygen, cardiac arrest can occur. Some children will have a respiratory injury from inhaling water, but generally, those who have drowned don’t have lungs filled with water.
When someone is pulled from the water, you have to reinstate the body’s response to need to breathe. When the brain has been deprived of oxygen, it has lost the sensation to know the body has to keep breathing. In CPR, the brain says, “Hello, there is blood coming to me,”Daltonsays. The amount of time underwater does not determine whether a child will live or die. The fate of the child depends on multiple factors, including how long he or she was without oxygen and whether the heart had stopped.
A final Oscar note –
I do not intend this safety information to alarm you. Instead, this article should make you more alert in your swimming and water activities and more confident about recognizing the possible threats to your water safety as well as to others.
Try to always swim in areas watched by qualified lifeguards and try to swim with a friend. DO NOT HESITATE to inform a lifeguard when someone appears to be in distress. If needed, INFORM the lifeguard to your and your children’s limitations.
BEING SAFE HELPS ENSURE YOUR WATER ACTIVITIES WILL BE HAPPY TIMES.
See you at the pool!
BULLETIN HURRICANE ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 800 PM PDT FRI JUN 10 2011 ...ADRIAN QUICKLY WEAKENING...NO LONGER A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 109.3W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ADRIAN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 828 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011 HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT .BR TAE 0610 E DH20/TAIRZX/DH20/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE :AS OF 8PM EDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : TLH : TALLAHASSEE : 98 / 68 / 0.00 AAF : APALACHICOLA : 91 / 66 / 0.00 40J : PERRY : 95 / 71 / 0.00 CTY : CROSS CITY : 96 / 66 / 0.00 JAX : JACKSONVILLE INTL : 88 / 62 / 0.00 ABY : ALBANY : 100 / 71 / 0.00 VAD : MOODY AFB : 95 / 66 / 0.00 VLD : VALDOSTA : 97 / 67 / 0.00 BGE : BAINBRIDGE : 99 / 72 / BIJ : BLAKELY : 97 / 68 / MGR : MOULTRIE : 97 / 70 / TMA : TIFTON : 95 / 68 / TVI : THOMASVILLE : 97 / 68 / : .END .BR TAE 0610 C DH19/TAIRZX/DH19/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ : :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE :AS OF 7PM CDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : ECP : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT : 93 / 70 / T PAM : TYNDALL AFB : 90 / 70 / 0.00 VPS : EGLIN AFB : 92 / 73 / 0.00 CEW : CRESTVIEW : 95 / 68 / T PNS : PENSACOLA : 94 / 74 / 0.00 MAI : MARIANNA : 100 / 74 / 0.00 MOB : MOBILE : 96 / 69 / 0.02 DHN : DOTHAN : 98 / 75 / 0.13 OZR : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD : 98 / 73 / 0.09 LOR : FT RUCKER HELIPORT : 100 / 70 / T
Charged particles from a huge solar eruption two days ago delivered only a glancing blow to Earth Thursday.
But it still represented a warning. Solar activity is approaching the 2013 peak of its 11-year cycle, called the “solar maximum,” and the developed world finds itself ever more dependent on systems vulnerable to massive solar storms.
Perhaps most important, the power grid is 10 times larger than it was in 1921, when the last solar superstorm hit, effectively making it a giant new antenna for geomagnetic current.
A far stronger solar outburst could overload and wreck hundreds of critical high-voltage transformers nationwide, blacking out 130 million people for months and costing as much as $2 trillion, according to an Oak Ridge National Laboratory study.
The first confirmed “solar tsunami” occurred in 1859. British astronomer Richard Carrington was busily sketching sunspots through his telescope when he observed a brilliant, oval-shaped light erupting from the sun that lasted several minutes.
Days later, telegraph systems worldwide went haywire. There was so much geomagnetically induced current on the lines that some telegraph operators reported being able to use the systems without batteries. In other cases, telegraph offices caught fire and wires melted. The northern lights could be seen as far south as Cuba.
More than 150 years later, many experts say that the US and most other nations are not well prepared to weather a truly massive solar storm like the “Carrington event”.
An art installation of a melting fan sits on display in a subway station Thursday, June 9, 2011 in Atlanta.
Sweltering temperatures across half the country had people doing what they could to stay cool Thursday.
While relief was in sight after one more day of misery in the Northeast, the South was forecast to stay hotter than usual at least through the end of the week.
Several Florida Division of Forestry firefighters, representing all 7 counties in the Chipola Forestry Center, are on the scene right now fighting to keep the “Doc Whitfield Road” Wildfire from threatening nearby homes in the White City and Howard Creek areas of Gulf County, about ten miles north of Port St. Joe up Highway 71.
At approximately 350 acres at 3:00 p.m. (Central Time), this wildfire had been doubling in size about every 30 minutes this afternoon. At 1:00 it was estimated to be 60 acres and growing, then at 1:30 it was approximately 115 acres and then at 2:00, it was believed to be 300 acres.
Division of Forestry firefighters from Gulf, Bay, Jackson, Holmes, Washington, Calhoun, and Walton counties are either working the blaze right now or are relocating themselves to be in a position to respond if needed.
Eleven tractor-plow units are on the scene plowing fire lines around the perimeter of the fire and 2 helicopters dropping water on the fire from the air. Also, two tankers are being ordered out of the Lake City area to help battle this wildfire.
Fortunately, due to the quick and aggressive actions of these Division of Forestry firefighters, no homes are in any immediate danger at this time and there are no evacuation orders being issued or even suggested at this time.
– Thanks to Brian Goddin for the update.
Lately I have taken some heat (no pun intended) for making the statements that “the rain we’ve seen isn’t going to help” and “a tropical system would be great for us”. I feel the need to explain my statements in an outlet I can go into further detail.
Firstly, when I say “the rain we’ve seen isn’t going to help” I am not trying to be a pessimist or negative. It is just simple fact. Our entire viewing area is under Extreme Drought Conditions.
This means we are SEVERAL inches below average for the year. This takes time, and substantial rainfall to fix, often several months.
While we may see rain somewhere in our viewing area every day (especially south of Dothan), these showers are single-cell, afternon thunderstorms. While they may rain intensely for several minutes, they are mainly in isolated areas, and do not cover a wide coverage zone.
Many times it may seem like several inches have fallen, when in reality maybe a 1/10th of an inch results. This does not scratch the surface of a severe drought, but MAY help those few yards or gardens it falls on.
What I have also heard from some farmers is that some of these brief bits of rain can actually do more harm to a freshly planted crop. A very small bit of rain can swell a freshly planted seed, cause it to surface and actually rot. This leads many farmers to need to re-plant, and irrigate.
Secondly, when I say “We really need a tropical system to stir up from the gulf” I am not trying to summon a Tropical Storm or a Hurricane! It is very early into the hurricane season, and conditions are not actually conducive for very well organized storms.
I certainly do not wish damage or high wind on anyone!
Typically a warm core system in June is largely disorganized, meaning lower winds, and slower forward movement. What this simply means is, soaking rain. Many times several inches, but not typically so much that they create problems.
River levels right now are very low, and soil very dry. Rain from a tropical depression would be highly unlikely to create any flooding problems while we are in Extreme Drought Conditions.
When I say “tropical system” that simply means an area of low pressure with a warm core and good precipitation. This is not synonomous with hurricane!
From 1851-2009 there have been less than 100 tropical storms in the Atlantic OR Gulf of Mexico. The likelyhood of a high wind scenario striking land is much lower.
I wish no ill-will when I make these statements, and I am educated in meteorology. I have a good concept of climatology. I am not a farmer, but these comments are not made without thought.
Thanks for hearing me out!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ITS PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
Tropical Weather Outlook Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl 800 Pm Edt Mon Jun 6 2011 For The North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico... A Large Low Pressure System With Associated Widespread Showers And Thunderstorms Is Located Over The Northwestern Caribbean Sea About 125 Miles South-Southwest Of Grand Cayman. There Has Been Little Change Of This System During The Last Several Hours...And Upper-Level Winds Are Expected To Become Unfavorable For Development By Tomorrow. There Is A Medium Chance...40 Percent...Of This System Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 48 Hours. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft Is Scheduled To Investigate The System Tomorrow Afternoon...If Necessary. Regardless Of Development...Heavy Rains Could Cause Flash Floods And Mud Slides Over Portions Of Haiti... Dominican Republic...Jamaica...And Cuba As The System Moves Slowly Toward The Northwest Or North During The Next Couple Of Days. Elsewhere...Tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The Next 48 Hours. Forecaster Landsea/Kimberlain
OSCAR NOTES –
As we blogged 24 hours ago, the Caribbean tropical system had quite a few atmospheric features in its favor IF it could organize.
Now, several features have turned against its chances of organization.
One of the negative aspects we mentioned was a forecast of strong upper winds that would increase shear and rip apart building thunderstorm tops. That indeed is already happening even earlier than expected.
The ‘bursting’ pattern explained earlier has also been interrupted. This will prevent – for now – any organized infusion of additional energy for the tropical system.
The upper low to the northwest has gotten too close, and instead of ventilating (improving organization chances) the tropical system, the upper low is now adding shear and interfering with any organized circulation attempts.
The less than distinct center is south southwest of Grand Cayman Island (south of western Cuba), in the middle of the northwestCaribbean. It is forecast to drift basically north into the south central or southeast Gulf later this week but forecast models differ on whether it can organize to a significant degree.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl 200 Am Edt Mon Jun 6 2011 For The North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico... A Large But Disorganized Area Of Disturbed Weather Associated With A Broad Area Of Low Pressure Continues Over A Large Portion Of The Central And Western Caribbean Sea. The Area Of Lowest Pressure Is Located About 175 Miles South Of Grand Cayman And Remains Separated From The Strongest Thunderstorm Activity. However...Some Development Of This System Is Possible During The Next Day Or So Before Upper-Level Winds Become Unfavorable. There Is A Medium Chance...40 Percent...Of This System Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 48 Hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Is Scheduled To Investigate The System Later Today...If Necessary. Regardless Of Development... Heavy Rains Could Cause Flash Floods And Mud Slides Over Portions Of Haiti And J amaica As The System Moves Slowly Toward The Northwest Or North Over The Next Couple Of Days. Elsewhere...Tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The Next 48 Hours. Forecaster Avila
(OSCAR NOTES – A few features have become evident over the last 12 to 24 hours.
1st – the dry air entrained into the Caribbean tropical wave on Saturday (which increases disorganization) has for the most part been cut off. This is allowing the system to slowly become better organized with more uniformed humidity.
2nd – upper lows well to the northwest and to the northeast are ventilating this system. This improves the inflow and outflow mechanics of the system – i.e., improving its circulation features.
3rd – a high pressure ridge is expected to slide from the Ohio River Valley to a position off the Virginia coast over the next 2 days. This will also provide a favorable outflow pattern at the upper levels of the Caribbean tropical wave.
4th – a low pressure center has formed with this Caribbean tropical wave. Whether it’s at the mid levels or near the surface is yet to be determined (the scheduled Air Force recon flight Monday will find out).
5th – currently (around midnight Sunday into Monday morning), a ‘bursting’ cycle is occurring with the Caribbean tropical wave (just south of Jamaica). These bursting cycles are common with tropical waves that are trying to organize. The burst starts with a 6-10 hour rapid increase of a cluster of thunderstorms. This initial burst is usually followed by a rapid decrease of the same thunderstorms because the rising air cannot be removed fast enough. So, the storms collapse and ‘choke’ the system – at least for a while. These bursts provide energy allowing the tropical wave to grow IF the circulation features (inflow and outflow) improve.
6th – Forecast negatives for development may be a forecast of increasing high level winds which would try to increase shear that is detrimental to tropical systems. Another negative – dry air nearby – would also limit development.
We can only wait to see how this plays out.
Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl 800 Pm Edt Sun Jun 5 2011 For The North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico... Shower And Thunderstorm Activity Has Changed Little Over The Past Few Hours In Association With A Broad Low Pressure System Located About 175 Miles West-Southwest Of Jamaica. While The Shower And Thunderstorm Activity Remains Concentrated Mainly To The East Of The Area Of Lowest Surface Pressures... Some Gradual Development Of This Large Disturbance Is Possible During The Next Day Or So Before Upper-Level Winds Become Less Favorable. There Is A Medium Chance ...40 Percent...Of This System Becoming A Tropical Cyclone During The Next 48 Hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Is Scheduled To Investigate The System Monday Afternoon...If Necessary. Regardless Of Development...Heavy Rains Could Cause Flash Floods And Mud Slides Over Portions Of Haiti And Jamaica As The System Moves Slowly Toward The Northwest Or North Over The Next Couple Of Days. Elsewhere...Tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The Next 48 Hours. Forecaster Brennan
Dothan’s 103 broke the old record of 102 set in 2000 for June 3rd.
That makes 4 new record afternoon high days in a row, with unseasonably hot days continuing through the weekend.
Here’s a look at other highs from Friday:
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 832 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2011 HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT .BR TAE 0603 E DH20/TAIRZX/DH20/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE :AS OF 8PM EDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : TLH : TALLAHASSEE : 101 / 69 / 0.00 AAF : APALACHICOLA : 90 / 68 / 0.00 40J : PERRY : 99 / 66 / 0.00 CTY : CROSS CITY : 98 / 60 / 0.00 JAX : JACKSONVILLE INTL : 93 / 63 / 0.00 ABY : ALBANY : 102 / 71 / 0.00 VAD : MOODY AFB : 99 / 67 / T VLD : VALDOSTA : 101 / 66 / 0.00 BGE : BAINBRIDGE : 100 / 70 / BIJ : BLAKELY : 102 / 77 / MGR : MOULTRIE : 100 / 72 / TMA : TIFTON : 97 / 70 / TVI : THOMASVILLE : 100 / 72 / : .END .BR TAE 0603 C DH19/TAIRZX/DH19/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ : :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE :AS OF 7PM CDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : ECP : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT : 97 / 69 / T PAM : TYNDALL AFB : 90 / 68 / 0.00 VPS : EGLIN AFB : 92 / 72 / 0.01 CEW : CRESTVIEW : 103 / 68 / 0.00 PNS : PENSACOLA : 94 / 74 / 0.00 MAI : MARIANNA : 104 / 73 / 0.00 MOB : MOBILE : 100 / 70 / 0.00 DHN : DOTHAN : 103 / 74 / 0.00 OZR : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD : 101 / 73 / 0.00 LOR : FT RUCKER HELIPORT : 103 / 71 / 0.00 :
The “Big Heat” continues… Dothan’s 101 broke the old record of 100 for June 2nd set in 1998.
That makes 3 record-breakers in a row!
Although not quite as hot as Wednesday, here’s a look at some of the other afternoon highs from around the Southeast…
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 857 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011 HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT .BR TAE 0602 E DH20/TAIRZX/DH20/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE :AS OF 8PM EDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : TLH : TALLAHASSEE : 99 / 72 / 0.00 AAF : APALACHICOLA : 87 / 71 / 0.00 40J : PERRY : 97 / 71 / 0.00 CTY : CROSS CITY : 95 / 67 / 0.00 JAX : JACKSONVILLE INTL : 88 / 66 / 0.00 ABY : ALBANY : 99 / 71 / 0.00 VAD : MOODY AFB : 95 / 67 / 0.00 VLD : VALDOSTA : 98 / 69 / 0.00 BGE : BAINBRIDGE : 97 / 68 / BIJ : BLAKELY : 99 / 70 / MGR : MOULTRIE : 97 / 72 / TMA : TIFTON : 95 / 68 / TVI : THOMASVILLE : 97 / 70 / : .END .BR TAE 0602 C DH19/TAIRZX/DH19/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ : :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE :AS OF 7PM CDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : ECP : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT : 95 / 72 / 0.00 PAM : TYNDALL AFB : 90 / 72 / 0.00 VPS : EGLIN AFB : 91 / 78 / 0.00 CEW : CRESTVIEW : 100 / 70 / 0.00 PNS : PENSACOLA : 90 / 79 / 0.00 MAI : MARIANNA : 99 / 73 / 0.00 MOB : MOBILE : 98 / 79 / 0.00 DHN : DOTHAN : 101 / 71 / 0.00 OZR : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD : 101 / 71 / 0.00 LOR : FT RUCKER HELIPORT : 101 / 70 / 0.00
Rescue workers went house-to-house, building-to-building early Thursday searching for survivors after tornadoes cut a deadly and destructive path through western Massachusetts, officials said.
At least four people were killed and 40 injured when at least two tornadoes touched down in portions of Springfield, Mayor Domenic Sarno said.
Officials were investigating reports at least two more tornadoes touched down in and around the city, which is the third largest in Massachusetts.
“We are in triage right now,” Sarno told reporters late Wednesday. “We are in life-saving mode.”
As many as 19 communities reported tornado damage by Wednesday night, said Gov. Deval Patrick. At least one person was killed in Springfield, two in nearby Westfield and one in Brimfield, about 20 miles east, he said.
The governor declared a state of emergency as the storm system that spawned the tornadoes moved east, prompting storm watches all the way to the Atlantic coast.
By early Thursday morning, it was unclear how much of Springfield and its neighboring communities had been damaged, though there were reports of destruction coming in from every corner of the city, officials said.
“I can tell you the damage is extensive. It is very difficult getting around the city,” Fire Commissioner Gary G. Cassanelli said. “The fire crews are having a tough time.”
Up to 1,000 National Guard soldiers were expected to be on the streets of Springfield by daybreak to assist in search and rescue efforts and provide security on the streets, Patrick said.
Additional fire crews from Connecticut and New Hampshire were being dispatched to help with search and rescue efforts, the mayor said.
The storms struck shortly after 4 p.m. in Springfield, about 90 miles west of Boston.
At J.T.’s Sports Pub in Springfield, owner Keith Makarowski said he and the 10 or so patrons initially went outside to watch the darkening skies — then retreated as the storm blew into downtown.
“There was a ton of debris flying around, lots of roof shingles and random siding,” Makarowski said.
Several century-old buildings were damaged — “roofs torn off, facades ravaged, trees uprooted” — and a woman across the street was blown up against a building after being caught outside.
“Luckily, two people from inside the building were able to pull her in, and she seemed like she was OK,” Makarowski said.
Residents were being warned to stay off the streets, many of which were impassable because of downed trees and power lines, overturned cars and debris from damaged and destroyed buildings.
Just outside Springfield in the community of Monson, resident Dolly Opper said state police were setting up roadblocks around the town, and a neighbor described the town’s center as “war zone.”
“The steeple’s off the church across the street. It’s lying right in the front yard,” she said.
Springfield, Monson, Westfield and seven other towns — Agawam, Charlton, Oxford, Palmer, Sturbridge, West Springfield and Wilbraham — reported severe damage, said Massachusetts State Police Sgt. Michael Popovics.
State and federal officials hoped to be able to get their first aerial view of the damage at daybreak.
With 19 communities hit by the storm, Sen. John Kerry, D-Massachusetts, said he could not imagine that federal aid would not be forthcoming to the area.
Kerry also offered his condolences to those killed and injured in the storm.
“Clearly all of our thoughts and prayers are with those individuals,” he told reporters late Wednesday.
Tens of thousands were without power after the tornadoes downed power lines and blew transformers.
Hard-hit areas might not have electricity until the end of the week, said Sandra Ahearn, a spokeswoman for the Western Massachusetts Electric Co.
Dylan McDonald said he watched the tornado knock down trees and scatter debris across town as he was driving with a co-worker.
“As the light turned green, a tree fell and everything took off,” McDonald said. “We saw a roof fly off an apartment building. The car was tilting, but didn’t turn over.”
Television footage from CNN affiliate WSHM showed one tornado churn up water on the Connecticut River before it passed over a bridge with cars on it and moved into Springfield.
The tornado created a massive debris field, swirling giant pieces of wood, concrete and other materials at least 25 stories high — in front of the tall downtown building that houses the affiliate.
The damage came amid a wave of heavy thunderstorms that moved through the Northeast on Wednesday.
Though not as tornado-prone as much of the Midwest or the South, Massachusetts has averaged two to three twisters per year since 1950, according to figures from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
In 1953, a massive tornado that struck Worcester and nearby towns killed 90 people, according to NOAA.
The last tornado to hit the state was in 2008.
Another new afternoon high record for Dothan… 103!
The old record was 102 in 1953.
With low 100s expected for Thursday, we should have the third day in a row for record high temperatures.
No significant rain through the weekend… with very hot afternoon highs through the first of the week!
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR SOUTHEAST AL...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE ... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 828 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY LOW TEMPERATURE PAST 18 HOURS 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 8PM EDT / 7PM CDT .BR TAE 0601 E DH20/TAIRZX/DH20/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - EASTERN TIME ZONE :AS OF 8PM EDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : TLH : TALLAHASSEE : 103 / 69 / 0.00 AAF : APALACHICOLA : 98 / 72 / 0.05 40J : PERRY : 101 / 67 / 0.00 CTY : CROSS CITY : 99 / 69 / 0.00 JAX : JACKSONVILLE INTL : 93 / 69 / 0.00 ABY : ALBANY : 102 / 71 / 0.00 VAD : MOODY AFB : 100 / 71 / 0.00 VLD : VALDOSTA : 102 / 69 / 0.00 BGE : BAINBRIDGE : 100 / 70 / BIJ : BLAKELY : 100 / 70 / MGR : MOULTRIE : 100 / 73 / TMA : TIFTON : 99 / 72 / TVI : THOMASVILLE : 102 / 72 / : .END .BR TAE 0601 C DH19/TAIRZX/DH19/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ : :AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS - CENTRAL TIME ZONE :AS OF 7PM CDT : : MAX MIN : TEMP TEMP PCPN : ECP : PANAMA CITY NW INTL ARPT : 102 / 70 / 0.00 PAM : TYNDALL AFB : 99 / 71 / 0.00 VPS : EGLIN AFB : 101 / 74 / 0.00 CEW : CRESTVIEW : 102 / 71 / 0.00 PNS : PENSACOLA : 101 / 76 / 0.00 MAI : MARIANNA : 105 / 73 / 0.00 MOB : MOBILE : 101 / 70 / 0.00 DHN : DOTHAN : 103 / 72 / 0.00 OZR : OZARK - CAIRNS AIR FIELD : 101 / 71 / 0.00 LOR : FT RUCKER HELIPORT : 103 / 67 / 0.00