…Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion…
The long wave pattern across North America this morning features a
RIDGE out west and a TROUGH across the east. Water vapor imagery
indicates one short wave departing the southeastern U.S. AS it moves
off the NC coast while another is approaching from the northwest.
Surface analysis shows a weak LOW off the SC coast with sprawling
HIGH PRESSURE centered over IN and ridging southward to the Gulf of
Mexico. Northeast low level FLOW between the two pressure centered
continues to be advect plenty of MOISTURE into the region beneath a
strong INVERSION (based at 900 MB per the 00Z KTAE SOUNDING). There
is insufficient lift to produce even sprinkles at this time, but
skies remain OVERCAST.
.NEAR TERM [Today]…
The low clouds will be very slow erode today. However, we do expect
some breaks by afternoon. Yesterday, TEMPS failed to make it out of
the 50s (for the first time at TLH since Feb 26), which was 14-18
degrees below NORMAL. Today we should see MID 60s if we get the
anticipated afternoon breaks. If these breaks fail to appear, we
could struggle to REACH” onClick=”return popup(this, ‘notes’)”>REACH 60 again. Mid 60s are still 7-9 degrees
below normal. POPS will be capped at silent 10.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Sunday]…
By tonight, the UPSTREAM short wave will be moving across AL and the
FL Panhandle. DPVA ahead of the system may provide just enough lift
to eek out a FEW sprinkles of light RAIN across our southeastern
zones. MIN temps will be near normal in those area, but a few
degrees below normal (lower to mid 40s) across the rest of the area.
The short wave will inch eastward on Saturday with mainly increased
cloudiness the result. A slight CHANCE POP will be maintained over
Dixie and Lafayette Counties and MAX temps will once again be below
normal, generally in the mid 60s. The upper support will be east of
the area by Saturday NIGHT as a weak upper low tries to cut off near
the GA coast. PoPs will be held to 10 or less and we will see some
more breaks in the CLOUD cover which will allow max temps to
moderate a few degrees on Sunday (upper 60s and lower 70s).
.LONG TERM [Sunday night through next Friday]…
Rather benign weather is expected for next week with a progressive
pattern in place. An upper level SHORTWAVE will pass through the
area around mid-week, but moisture returns looks rather anemic at
this time, so the official forecast left a mention of showers out of
the forecast with PoPs only around 10 percent. Overall, a dry week
appears to be shaping up with near seasonal temperatures.
With high pressure expected to remain situated north of the Gulf of
Mexico through much of the forecast period, winds will remain
primarily out of the northeast. The GRADIENT should be sufficient to
bring a return of exercise caution conditions by Saturday morning
which should persist through the weekend. Winds should remain
moderate, but just below headline criteria for Monday and then
further decrease by Tuesday.
[Through 12z Saturday] MVFR to IFR cigs are expected to continue at
all of the TAF sites through the morning hours. By the afternoon,
the low cloud shield is expected to start eroding gradually from
west to east. This may allow some sites such as KDHN, KABY, and KECP
to break out into VFR conditions by the early to mid afternoon
hours. However, farther east around KTLH and KVLD, the low cigs are
expected to hold through much of the day.
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
relative HUMIDITY values forecast to remain above critical levels.