AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
649 AM EST Wed Dec 26 2012
NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]…
Much cooler and drier air will continue to build in behind the Cold
Front today on gusty W-NW winds, which are expected to be strong for
a Wind Advisory. These winds will gradually diminish during the
evening and overnight hours, which will allow low temps to drop to
between 30 and 35 degrees in many areas tonight. However, it is
still a bit too early to call whether any locations will meet the
durations required for a freeze warning, but this may require a
second look this afternoon.
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]…
High Pressure with fair and dry weather will dominate conditions
across the region on Thursday, but High Temps will still be below
normal in the mid to upper 50s. This dry weather will be short
lived, however, as a weak low pressure begins to develop off to our
west along the Gulf Coast, with the possibility of some light rain
returning to western parts of the area by Friday afternoon.
.LONG TERM [Friday Night through next Thursday]…
A progressive pattern will remain in place through the period with
the GFS and ECMWF agreeing that the next rain maker will move into
the area on Saturday. This system currently does not look nearly as
impressive in terms of convective potential as the system we are
dealing with now, and the official forecast only carries a slight
chance of thunder close to the coast. For the most part,
temperatures are expected to be within a few degrees of the seasonal
averages, except cooler than average Thursday night as weak high
pressure temporarily builds in from the north.
[Through 12z Thursday] Gusty westerly winds will be the main story
behind the cold front. Gusts around 25 knots are expected at all TAF
sites. Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail, but there
could be a brief window of MVFR cigs around KABY and KDHN.
The powerful squall line has moved through the western portion of
the Coastal Waters early this morning, and will be moving through
the eastern legs until an hour or two after sunrise. Gale Force
winds (and/or frequent gusts) with high seas will overtake the marine
area from west to east, and linger into early this afternoon. Once
the Gale has subsided, Small Craft Advisory conditions will linger
across the waters until late tonight. Lighter winds and lower seas
are expected by Thursday.
There are no red flag concerns for the next several days.
The 1 to 2 inches of recent rainfall may cause some minor rises
along area rivers. However, due to low flows in area basins, no
significant rises are expected at this time.